With the election over, I thought I'd take a stab at what a bipartisan incumbent protection map might look like in Virginia. The plan is to protect all 11 incumbents; the only district that would likely be competitive in an open seat situation under this map is VA-10.
As of 3:30 AM on Nov. 4th the Republicans have a 239 seat majority in the House which is 21 seats over the 218 needed for the majority.
So I started taking a VERY EARLY look at 2012 House Seats and seeing if there are at least 22 seats the Democrats should realistically be able to take a run at if 2012 is a normal election year (50-50 turnout).
So the seats we lost that I think we'd have a 40% chance of winning and up are AZ-01 (R+4), AZ-05 (R+5), CA-20 (D+5), FL-02 (R+6), FL-08 (R+2), FL-22 (D+1) FL-24 (R+4), IL-08 (R+1), IL-11 (R+1), IL-14 (R+1), IL-17 (D+3), MI-01 (R+3), MI-07 (R+2), MN-08 (D+3), NV-03 (D+2), NH-01 (EVEN), NH-02 (D+3), NJ-03 (R+1), NY-13 (R+4), NY-19 (R+3), NY-20 (R+2), NY-24 (R+2), NC-02 (R+2), OH-01 (D+1), OH-06 (R+2), OH-15 (D+1), OH-16 (R+4), PA-07 (D+3), PA-08 (D+2), PA-11 (D+4), TX-23 (R+4), TX-27 (R+2), WA-03 (EVEN), WI-07 (D+3), and WI-08 (R+2). Right there is 35 seats, if I counted correctly, where the Dems should be able to win at least 1/2 of them by it simply not being 2010 Part II.
Then we could add in the Republican seats that should be up for a challenge in a Presidential election like AZ-03 (Quayle won by 11.6%), CA-03, CA-44, CA-45, CA-49, FL-12, FL-25, IL-10, MN-06 (Bachmann is bound to shoot herself in the foot soon), PA-06, PA-07, SC-02 (Wilson won by 9.8% in this year, imagine when AA turnout is higher), and WA-08. The Dems have a much smaller chance at winning any of these districts, aside from IL-10, but 1/2 of 35 is 17.5 and adding 2-3 seats here would put Democrats within 2 seats of re-taking the House.
Now I'm sure redistricting will shake things up and some senior Democrats and Republicans will retire but as of today I think the Democrats could just have an average election year and still take back the House albeit with a tiny minority. If Obama gets a re-election bounce similar to Clinton in 1996 then maybe his coattails could elect another 10 or so Democrats.
P.S. If you see any seats that I forgot to list please let me know.
P.P.S I looked at a combination of a districts PVI and 08/10 election numbers.
I doesn't seem like it was that long ago when Swing State Project celebrated the Democratic Sweep in Montana that elected Brian Schweitzer Governor. But next spring will be Governor Schweitzer's last legislative session and due to term limits the seat will be open in 2012.
The great news is that former Congressman Pat Williams is considering a run for governor!
Fundraising in the cycle before an election can give us signs of who is thinking about retirement or who is planning for a tough re-election. Looking through 2009-2010 FEC reports for 2012 Senate candidates contains some surprises about incumbents assumed to be likely 2012 retirements, such as Dianne Feinstein and Ben Nelson. Below you can find the fundraising, cash on hand, and debt of every incumbent senator up for re-election in 2012, with the exception of Kirsten Gillibrand, who first has to win a 2010 election and West Virginia, where we do not know who the incumbent will be.
This is my first attempt at redistricting Illinois. I drew this map assuming that Governor Pat Quinn wins re-election and Democrats control the redistricting trifecta. SSPers know, of course, that Pat Quinn trails in the high single-digits in the most recent polls, so full Democratic control remains in doubt.
Illinois is predicted to lose a congressional seat in 2012, going from 19 to 18 seats. This necessitated the drawing together of two incumbents, Peter Roskam and Mike Quigley. Illinois also currently has 4 VRA districts (3 African-American, 1 Hispanic) all based in the City of Chicago. I preserved all 4 districts, and I felt that the sharp Hispanic growth required the creation of another majority Hispanic district. Therefore, my map has 5 Minority-Majority districts.
I thought as me first diary I should take a look at what lies ahead in 2012. Take in mind, while I do take in mind facts in each state, these are purely speculative and should be taken with a grain of salt. However, I do put in mind three factors which I think would affect state by state results:
1.) Obama on the ballot: With Barack Obama most likely running for reelection, his presence on the ballot should increase Democratic turnout that was not present in Virginia or New Jersey in 2009, and will definitely have an impact of key states.
2.) Tea Party: Just as Obama's presence will mobilize the left, I expect the Tea Party to have the same impact on the Republicans as they are currently having during the current primary calendar.
3.) 2011 Redistricting: I suspect by the time the states redraw their Congressional Districts, a number of House members may be drawn out of their old districts and may be seeking greener pastures of higher office.
So here's my completely speculative predictions for 2012. I'll look at the Senate first:
(Note: This is a two-part diary on analysis of Orange County, i am writing up analysis of the effect of Prop 8 tomorrow. I apologize if it seems too long, but this is from a perspective of an OC resident. Comments and criticisms are welcomed.)
In 2008, Barack Obama accomplished something no other Democrat statewide could do: Keep Orange County within single digits (47-50%). While everyone knew he would win California (maybe not by the double-digit margin he did it by), no one including many OC Democrats here would imagine him being on the cusp of a symbolic victory: Winning in territory the media calls "America's most conservative county", the home of Richard Nixon and the center of Conservatism in California.
Well, how did he do it? Well, much like the so-called "Obama Wave" swamped the entire country, it also hit ground here in Orange County, taking the top three populated cities (Santa Ana, Anaheim and Irvine) and making large inroads in normally-conservative areas. President Obama wasn't the only major change to Orange County politics, the controversional ballot measure known as Proposition 8 also broke-down boundaries, and you wouldn't believe which cities voted for (or narrowly against) and against it, but first let's take a look at each cities performance for the 2008 Presidential election (08' only):
City
PVI
% '08
Notes
(Orange County)
R+4
47/50
Whole county.
Aliso Viejo
D+1
53/45
Incorporated after 2000 Census
Anaheim
R+1
51/47
Minority-majority; Second-largest city
Brea
R+10
42/56
Buena Park
D+1
53/44
Large Asian and Latino populations.
Costa Mesa
EVEN
52/46
Cypress
R+5
47/51
Dana Point
R+5
47/51
Fountain Valley
R+9
43/55
Fullerton
R+3
48.6/49.8
College town; Minority-majority
Garden Grove
R+5
48/51
Minority-majority; Large Vietnamese population
Huntington Beach
R+6
46/52
Libertarian-leaning
Irvine
D+5
57/41
College town
La Habra
R+3
49/48.6
Minority-majority
La Palma
R+3
48.4/49
Laguna Beach
D+11
63/35
Well known for large LGBT community
Laguna Hills
R+7
45/53
Laguna Niguel
R+6
46/52
Laguna Woods
EVEN
52/46
Extremely high percentage of Senior citizens
Lake Forest
R+7
46/53
Large evangelical presence; Added communities after 2000 census
Los Alamitos*
R+4
49/50
Mission Viejo
R+8
44/54
Newport Beach
R+12
40/58
Libertarian-leaning
Orange
R+7
45/53
Placentia
R+9
43/55
Large Hispanic population
Rancho Santa Margartia
R+9
43/55
San Clemente
R+10
42/56
Home of Ronald Reagan
San Juan Capistrano
R+10
42/56
Santa Ana
D+14
66/32
Largest city; Hispanic-majority; Most Democratic
Seal Beach
R+5
48/51
Stanton
D+2
54/44
Minority-majority
Tustin
EVEN
52/46
Villa Park
R+25
27/71
Most Republican; Least populated city
Westminster
R+10
42/56
Large Vietnamese population, home to Little Saigon
Yorba Linda
R+18
32/66
Birthplace of Richard Nixon
*Number 12 on the map, wasn't added to the list.
If your one who prefers visuals (and tolerates crappy novice-style use of paint :P), then look below:
There seems to be a flurry of people attempting to redistrict California, so my plan may seem less adventurous than others - especially when compared to the Herculean effort by Silver Springs.
However, I have a different purpose - I want to create a Democratic map that respects existing political lines - cities and counties. The bottom line is that I create a map that creates 39 safe Democratic seats, 8 safe Republican seats, and 6 toss-up seats (each of the toss-up seats were won by Obama. Based on the 2000 demographic data, I create a map with 31 minority-majority districts, including 10 majority Hispanic districts and a plurality African-American district. (*I believe that my CA 45 will be minority-majority with the new census).
Like my NY contest entry, I claim that a safe Democratic seat is one where Obama won with 55% of the vote (Seven Republicans represent districts that gave Obama 55%/16 Republcans represent districts Obama won by over 53%). I have included in my description of each district where the current incumbents live, but their residences did not play a factor in how I drew the map. The map also has no deviation in district size greater than 702.
Rasmussen Reports released polling for the Texas Governor's race today. Surveying likely voters, they found incumbent Republican Gov. Rick Perry ahead 48% - 44% over former Houston Mayor Bill White.
This is my first attempt at California since the partisan data by precinct became available in Dave's Application.
My diaries are often long, and it takes me a while to get to the point. So, I will summarize the bottom line here:
* 43 solidly Democratic districts created; in each McCain gets 37% of vote or less (currently there are 34 Democratic representatives from California, and 1 of the 34 holds a swingy seat)
* Remaining 10 districts to GOP, with possibility that 2 of the 10 go our way at some point in the next decade
* 19 Hispanic majority districts created; 18 of the 19 are at least 55% Hispanic, so that a Hispanic representative has a real chance of being elected (currently, there are only 8 Hispanic representatives from California). An additional 13 seats are minority-majority (with either an Asian or African-American plurality or no particular racial/ethnic minority dominant).
