Again, the obligatory grain of salt alert: my districts are based on county estimates from 2007 which are due to be adjusted soon with 2008 numbers. Also, I am using projected seat totals that are equally subject to change.
Much geekdom, nerdiness, and dorkery lies below the fold...
Episode 2 in my series of diaries mapping out possible redistricting scenarios in the states has arrived! Today, I map Michigan and Nevada.
Grain of salt alert: my districts are based on county estimates from 2007 which are due to be adjusted soon with 2008 numbers. Also, I am using projected seat totals that are equally subject to change.
The number geeks among us will really enjoy what's below the fold...
With the 2010 Census just a year away and the next round of nationwide redistricting two or three years away, I've decided to start looking at the redistricting situations in different states and begin some conversation about what kinds of changes we can expect to see. These diaries will be sporadic, and the data is always subject to change (for now, county population estimates are from 2007; 2008 numbers will be out soon, meaning my number-crunching will need constant adjusting)...but for we super-geeks, merely the discussion of redistricting and speculation on its effects will be sufficiently entertaining.
My "state focus" redistricting diaries will cover two states, usually one large and one a bit smaller.
Today, I was feeling the vibes of 2004, so we'll delve into Massachusetts and Texas. Below the fold...
During the past eight years, Iowa has gained as many people - about 76,000 - as states like South Carolina and Virginia gained between 2007 and 2008 alone.
To retain the congressional seat, the state would have to gain nearly twice that number by 2010, according to projections by Election Data Services, a Washington, D.C.-based consulting firm that analyzes the impact of demographics on politics.
So, Iowa will be left with four Congressional districts. No one knows what the new map will look like, but it's likely that the 2012 race in the new third district will determine whether Iowa Democrats (who now hold a 3-2 edge in U.S. House seats) gain a 3-1 advantage or have to settle for a 2-2 split.
Skip this diary if you think it's too early to start talking about the 2012 presidential campaign just because Barack Obama hasn't been inaugurated yet.
