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2012 elections

Palin's Iowa endorsement could hurt her in 2012

by: desmoinesdem

Sat Jun 05, 2010 at 9:01 AM EDT

If Sarah Palin runs for president in 2012, she will regret endorsing Terry Branstad Thursday in the Republican primary for governor.

First thoughts on how this will play out are after the jump.

There's More... :: (9 Comments, 1180 words in story)

Redistricting 2011: Oklahoma & Wisconsin

by: Nathaniel90

Tue May 19, 2009 at 4:51 PM EDT

This is now Episode 12 of my seemingly never-ending redistricting series. (In reality, it has a definite end -- after this diary, there are only 9 states I'm planning to address: California, Washington, New Mexico, Maryland, West Virginia, Virginia, North Carolina, Kansas, and Tennessee. The other 15 states are either at-large states, or are unlikely to see substantive boundary changes.)

Today comes Oklahoma and Wisconsin. I struggled with whether to include Oklahoma at all, since my Oklahoma effort is barely different from the current map. But given the fluid partisan dynamics in Sooner State politics, and the potential issue over how to handle the "conservative Democratic" 2nd District, I thought it might be worth a look. On the other hand, I drew two maps for Wisconsin based on the highly changeable atmosphere in that state's 2010 elections.

Previous efforts:
Diary 1: Massachusetts and Texas
Diary 2: Michigan and Nevada
Diary 3: Iowa and Ohio
Diary 4: Georgia and New Jersey
Diary 5: Florida and Louisiana
Diary 6: Pennsylvania and Utah
Diary 7: Illinois and South Carolina
Diary 8: Indiana, Missouri, and Oregon
Diary 9: Alabama, Arizona, and Kentucky
Diary 10: Colorado and Minnesota
Diary 11: Mississippi and New York

Hark, to the extended text!

There's More... :: (41 Comments, 1094 words in story)

Redistricting 2011: Mississippi & N.Y.

by: Nathaniel90

Thu May 14, 2009 at 9:19 PM EDT

After a couple-week hiatus, I'm back to Episode 11 of my redistricting series! On tap for tonight's episode: a magnolia founds the next world empire! Or, rather, I've paired two unlikely diary neighbors, New York and Mississippi.

There were a number of people who earlier asked me why I hadn't yet covered New York, one of the obvious choices for an early redistricting diary. The reason is that back in March I drew a map for NY that assumed Jim Tedisco would win NY-20 and be primed for elimination in 2012. Just tonight I redrew New York to, on the contrary, make the 20th more Democratic to help Murphy (though the news wasn't all good, and I'll get to that momentarily).

Previous efforts:
Diary 1: Massachusetts and Texas
Diary 2: Michigan and Nevada
Diary 3: Iowa and Ohio
Diary 4: Georgia and New Jersey
Diary 5: Florida and Louisiana
Diary 6: Pennsylvania and Utah
Diary 7: Illinois and South Carolina
Diary 8: Indiana, Missouri, and Oregon
Diary 9: Alabama, Arizona, and Kentucky
Diary 10: Colorado and Minnesota

The chasm lies below...

There's More... :: (112 Comments, 1717 words in story)

Redistricting 2011: Colo. & Minnesota

by: Nathaniel90

Sat Apr 25, 2009 at 12:57 AM EDT

I am now on Episode 10 of my redistricting series, if you can believe it! Tonight we cover Colorado and Minnesota. I drew two maps for Minnesota -- one if the Republicans hold Tim Pawlenty's governorship in 2010, and the other if Democrats manage a gerrymandering monopoly. (The Dems have solid state legislative majorities, so that element seems set in stone.)

Previous efforts:
Diary 1: Massachusetts and Texas
Diary 2: Michigan and Nevada
Diary 3: Iowa and Ohio
Diary 4: Georgia and New Jersey
Diary 5: Florida and Louisiana
Diary 6: Pennsylvania and Utah
Diary 7: Illinois and South Carolina
Diary 8: Indiana, Missouri, and Oregon
Diary 9: Alabama, Arizona, and Kentucky

Jump below, if and only if you dare!

There's More... :: (128 Comments, 1131 words in story)

Redistricting 2011: Ala., Ariz., & Ky.

by: Nathaniel90

Thu Apr 09, 2009 at 7:29 PM EDT

Here is Episode 9 of my never-ending redistricting series, in which I cover three states (Alabama, Arizona, and Kentucky) with little in common demographically other than all voting for John McCain.

Previous efforts:
Diary 1: Massachusetts and Texas
Diary 2: Michigan and Nevada
Diary 3: Iowa and Ohio
Diary 4: Georgia and New Jersey
Diary 5: Florida and Louisiana
Diary 6: Pennsylvania and Utah
Diary 7: Illinois and South Carolina
Diary 8: Indiana, Missouri, and Oregon

Jump below!

There's More... :: (45 Comments, 1680 words in story)

Redistricting 2011: Ind., Mo., & Oregon

by: Nathaniel90

Sat Apr 04, 2009 at 2:20 AM EDT

This, Episode 8 of my never-ending redistricting series, is a diary of firsts. It is the first time I have covered three states instead of the customary two (the reason being that I was pairing a larger state with a smaller one, and this diary covers three mid-sized states), and the first time I have covered a state not expected to either gain or lose seats in the next reapportionment (Indiana, which should hold even at 9 seats).

Previous efforts:
Diary 1: Massachusetts and Texas
Diary 2: Michigan and Nevada
Diary 3: Iowa and Ohio
Diary 4: Georgia and New Jersey
Diary 5: Florida and Louisiana
Diary 6: Pennsylvania and Utah
Diary 7: Illinois and South Carolina

Jump below!

There's More... :: (61 Comments, 2952 words in story)

Redistricting 2011: Illinois & South Carolina

by: Nathaniel90

Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 11:53 AM EDT

Here is Episode 7 in my redistricting series. Episode 7 was meant to be Arizona & New York, but with NY-20 undecided and likely to be for a time, I thought it was time to press ahead with other states I've drawn. So here we have it: the Land of Lincoln and the founding state of the Confederacy, wrapped together at last in one diary!

Previously covered:
Diary 1: Massachusetts and Texas
Diary 2: Michigan and Nevada
Diary 3: Iowa and Ohio
Diary 4: Georgia and New Jersey
Diary 5: Florida and Louisiana
Diary 6: Pennsylvania and Utah

Jump below to read what I was doing at 3:00 AM last night!

There's More... :: (58 Comments, 1903 words in story)

Redistricting 2011: Penn. & Utah

by: Nathaniel90

Tue Mar 24, 2009 at 3:36 PM EDT

Episode 6 in my redistricting series. By this point I'm tired of having these maps and data lying around burning a hole in my Microsoft Word documents, especially in light of the new Census county estimates for 2008. So I'm knocking out all the already-completed states for your and my nerdy enjoyment. Today, some keystones with your Jell-O?

Previously covered:
Diary 1: Massachusetts and Texas
Diary 2: Michigan and Nevada
Diary 3: Iowa and Ohio
Diary 4: Georgia and New Jersey
Diary 5: Florida and Louisiana

Those strangest of bedfellows, Rust Belt Pennsylvania and booming Utah! (spelled with an exclamation point as on state license plates) just below the fold...

There's More... :: (21 Comments, 2065 words in story)

Redistricting 2011: Florida & Louisiana

by: Nathaniel90

Mon Mar 23, 2009 at 7:40 PM EDT

Episode 5 in my redistricting series, and as you can see, I'm picking up the pace, having just covered Georgia and New Jersey yesterday. Because the Census released 2008 county estimates last week, I feel like knocking out these diaries for the states I already mapped using 2007 numbers. Of course, because they're 2007 numbers, they're not quite up to snuff, but in most cases, the lines wouldn't look too dramatically different using newer stats.

Previously covered:
Diary 1: Massachusetts and Texas
Diary 2: Michigan and Nevada
Diary 3: Iowa and Ohio
Diary 4: Georgia and New Jersey

Geek out below!

There's More... :: (65 Comments, 2456 words in story)

Redistricting 2011: Georgia & New Jersey

by: Nathaniel90

Sun Mar 22, 2009 at 2:51 PM EDT

Episode 4 in my series of diaries mapping out possible redistricting scenarios in the states is here! I was inspired to finally put it together after BigTentProgressive's excellent Texas redistricting diary. On the agenda today: some peaches for the First Lady's new garden. (Which is my not-so-clever way of saying that I'm covering Georgia and New Jersey in today's diary.)

Previously covered:
Diary 1: Massachusetts and Texas
Diary 2: Michigan and Nevada
Diary 3: Iowa and Ohio

Unfortunately, my districts are based on county estimates from 2007, and just this week the Census released 2008 numbers. Since my maps were drawn before the 2008 release, they are worth taking with a grain of salt. Also, I am using projected seat totals for post-2010 redistricting that are equally subject to change.

Geeky playtime below the fold!

There's More... :: (41 Comments, 1839 words in story)
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