After taking a month off, I have decided to only rank the top 15 races, due to the fact that low tier races really don't have many game changing events occurring, well, ever.
On my second attempt at ranking the United States Senate seats that are up for election in the 2010 election Cycle, I will attempt to limit my spelling mistakes, as well as double check my facts. Apparently I missed a few things last time around...
I rank my races similarly to Nate Silver's 2010 Senate rankings over on his site FiveThirtyEight, in which, the senate seats that are most likely to change parties are at the top, and seats less likely to change hands are at the bottom. I am also adopting the arrows Nate uses to tell us whether a race has increased () or decreased () its likelihood of changing hands since it was last ranked.
With the release of the new registration numbers, and a couple of special elections just around the corner, I now have updates for the open and/or competitive State Senate and State Assembly districts, as well as the eight Obama-Republican districts. The Secretary of State's website has the presidential results by district, so I am including the presidential results in each district.
Breaking news: We now have a (albeit slight) registration advantage in AD-10!
And an edit: I am including CA-04 in the list because of McClintock's less-than-1% win, even though the presidential race and registration gap are not particularly close.
Popular deli chain owner Sam Granato will run for Sen. Bob Bennett's seat in 2010.
Granato, who owns several Granato's delis throughout the Salt Lake Valley, also is chairman of the Utah Liquor Control Commission. He confirmed to me Thursday that he is in the race for sure as a Democrat, and he has secured early support from several Democratic insiders and officials. He will make the formal announcement June 1. ...
Meanwhile, Attorney General Mark Shurtleff told me Thursday he has made the decision personally to challenge Bennett for the Republican nomination, but he has given his wife one more week to talk him out of it.
Sure, Utah's Utah. Ruby red. I get it. But if Shurtleff v. Bennett does turn nasty and expensive, a prominent figure like Granato could take advantage. We'll see if lightning strikes.
With the release of the new registration numbers, I now have updates for the open and/or competitive State Senate and State Assembly districts. The Secretary of State's website has the presidential results by district, so I am including the presidential results in each districts.
I am also tacking on the eight districts that are our top targets in 2010: CA-03, CA-24, CA-25, CA-26, CA-44, CA-45, CA-48, and CA-50.
With conservative former Congressman Pat Toomey set to challenge incumbent Arlen Specter in the 2010 Republican Senate primary, I think it's safe to assume that we'll see a bloodbath in which Specter is labeled a convictionless flip-flopper and Toomey is dubbed an unelectable right-winger. No doubt both Specter and Toomey will spend the bulk of their resources just to get through the primary, leaving the eventual Republican nominee politically battered and financially near-broke, having to re-build a bankroll from almost scratch.
Naturally, this raises the question: who do you want the Democratic nominee to be? With the Republican nominee starting the general election in rough shape from a bloody primary, and with Pennsylvania Democrats continuing to grow their voter registration edge over Pennsylvania Republicans, Democrats are in the driver's seat. Without further ado, here is the cattle call of potential candidates, in alphabetical order:
District Attorney Lynne Abraham During late-December of last year, both KYW Newsradio 1060 Philadelphia and CBS-3 Philadelphia reported that District Attorney Abraham was considering a bid. As for bio, she was head of the Philadelphia Redevelopment Authority in the 1970's and subsequently a judge on the Philadelphia Court of Common Pleas. She has been District Attorney of the City of Philadelphia since 1991 and has won four elections during her tenure - but she has already announced that she is not running for re-election to the post this year. A knock on her as a candidate, though, is related to the strength of her resume: in 2010, she will turn 69-years-old. I don't imagine she'd plan on seeking several six-year terms to build her seniority.
State Representative Dwight Evans The 54-year-old State Representative is a powerhouse in the state Legislature as the Chairman of the Appropriations Committee, having served in the state House for nearly thirty years, but has also had his share of electoral losses. He finished third in the 1986 Democratic primary for Pennsylvania Lieutenant Governor, finished third in the 1994 Democratic gubernatorial primary, and had fifth-place showings in two crowded Philadelphia Mayoral runs in 1999 and 2007. Still as the Democrats' Appropriations chief for nearly twenty of his thirty years in the state House, he has wielded considerable power for a long time. The Executive Director of the PA-Dems was talking Representative Evans up this past January as a possible 2010 Senate candidate. Representative Evans has done a great deal to improve Philadelphians' lives, but has had difficulty translating that success in bids for higher office.
Congressman Patrick Murphy At only 35-years-old, Congressman Murphy, an Iraq War veteran now serving his second term in Congress, is considered a rising star in the Party. Some of his pluses are quite obvious: his military experience brings unique perspective and his relative youth would allow him to build seniority over the years for Pennsylvania. According to the National Journal's 2008 Vote Ratings, Congressman Murphy was the 187th most liberal member and the 240th most conservative member - in other words, he was fairly centrist. Given the political carnage that is expected at the end of Specter-Toomey: The Sequel, PA-Dems may want to elect someone more liberal than Congressman Murphy has been. Also, while Congressman Murphy appears to be a more-than-decent fundraiser, as of the end of 2008, he had just under $150,000 on hand, with just over $100,000 in debt, which means he's starting from nearly scratch on the money front.
Congresswoman Allyson Schwartz Now serving in her third term, Congresswoman Schwartz is one of only two women in Pennsylvania's Congressional delegation. Her bio includes: executive director of the Elizabeth Blackwell Center, a Planned parenthood clinic in Philadelphia, '75-'88; acting Deputy Commissioner of the Philadelphia Department of Human Services, '88-'90; State Senator, '91-'04; Congresswoman, '05-present. According to the National Journal's 2008 Vote Ratings, Congresswoman Schwartz was the 112th most liberal member and the 316th most conservative member, i.e.she was a bit to Congressman Murphy's political left. Also, known for being a strong fundraiser, she closed out 2008 with just under $2 million on hand and no debt. On Election Day 2010, Congresswoman Schwartz will be 62-years-old, suggesting perhaps only a tenure of two-terms tops if she ran.
Congressman Joe Sestak The 57-year-old military veteran is in his second term in Congress. After graduating from the U.S. Naval Academy in 1974, Congressman Sestak picked up an M.P.A. and a Ph.D. from Harvard before embarking on an impressive naval career. According to the National Journal's 2008 Vote Ratings, Congressman Sestak was the 150th most liberal member and the 277th most conservative member, putting him in between Congressman Murphy and Congresswoman Schwartz in the ranking. Also a very solid fundraiser, Congressman Sestak ended 2008 with over $2.9 million on hand and no debt. Back in December, Congressman Sestak's office suggested that he wouldn't be a candidate for Senate in 2010; however, with the new political dynamic of the combative Republican primary, perhaps Congressman Sestak might reconsider.
State Representative Josh Shapiro Like Congressman Murphy, Representative Shapiro is only 35-years-old. He is in his third term in the state Legislature, and was named Deputy Speaker of the House in his second term. Prior to his time in the state Legislature, Representative Shapiro spent about eight years on Capitol Hill working for several elected officials, including service as Chief of Staff to Congressman Joe Hoeffel, Arlen Specter's last Democratic opponent. Representative Shapiro has met with the DSCC to discuss a possible bid; and, he has begun an aggressive outreach campaign to determine whether or not he'll run.
State Board of Education Chairman Joe Torsella The 45-year-old Torsella has worn many hats: state Board of Education Chairman, President and CEO of the National Constitution Center, and Deputy Mayor for Policy and Planning for the City of Philadelphia under then-Mayor and now-Governor Ed Rendell. He also ran for Congress in 2004 and narrowly lost the Democratic primary to now-Congresswoman Allyson Schwartz, who won her first term in that election cycle. He is also the only announced candidate for Senate in 2010 on the Democratic side, though he has yet to launch a campaign website (that I can find, anyway) despite having announced two months ago. It is rumored that Torsella enjoys the support of Governor Rendell's political machine behind the scenes. Through contacts from his numerous civic roles and possible assistance from the Rendell machine, Torsella was able to raise a respectable $600,000 in Q1 (having only started campaign fundraising in mid-February). The amount is enough to demonstrate capable fundraising, but far from strong enough to scare off primary challengers, especially members of Congress with seven-figure campaign bankrolls.
State Auditor Jack Wagner Auditor Wagner began serving as a statewide official in this capacity in 2005, succeeding Bob Casey Jr., who, of course, defeated Republican Rick Santorum for Senate in 2006. Prior to his tenure as Auditor, Wagner spent a little over a decade in the Pennsylvania state Senate. Auditor Wagner is also a Purple Heart recipient from his time with the Marine Corps in Vietnam. Auditor Wagner is the only person on this list from western Pennsylvania, which could provide a geographic advantage. On Election Day 2010, Auditor Wagner will be 62-years-old, like Congresswoman Schwartz, suggesting a limit to his possible tenure in the Senate. Additionally, it's been reported that Auditor Wagner has told friends that he will not run for the Senate seat.
Former State Treasurer Robin Wiessmann Former Treasurer Wiessman had a largely financial services background before filling the remainder of Bob Casey's Treasurer term after he ascended to the U.S. Senate. She spent the 90's as President of Artemis Capital Group and went on to serve as a Vice-president at Goldman Sachs. She also put in a stint as Deputy Director of Finance for the City of Philadelphia. If Wiessman was interested in a prolonged political career, one suspects that she would have run for Treasurer last year instead of ceding the office, though. If she does decide to run, fundraising won't be as difficult as it would be for other first-time candidates as her husband is reportedly a major Democratic fundraiser.
With Governor Ed Rendell serious about retiring from electoral politics and with current state Treasurer Rob McCord in only his fourth month in the role and having expressed no interest in a Senate bid thus far, this appears to be the pool from which a Democratic nominee will arise. You're encouraged to make your case for your candidate in the comments. If there is someone you would like to see as the Democratic nominee in PA-Sen who hasn't been listed, share your thoughts in the comments, as well.
In a story released today by The News & Observer, North Carolina's Democratic state Attorney General Roy Cooper indicated that he may decide on whether or not to run for Senate in 2010 IN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS!
If you so see fit, PLEASE call Roy Cooper's campaign office at 919-832-4312 (you'll probably get voice mail) and leave a simple message encouraging Roy Cooper to run for Senate in 2010. Explain that North Carolina and all of America would benefit by having his common sense voice replace Richard Burr's obstructionist voice.
Every word of encouragement he receives makes him more likely to run -- and, if he runs, we can replace Republican backbencher Richard Burr with a strong Democrat like Roy Cooper!
With the release of the new registration numbers, I now have updates for the open and/or competitive State Senate and State Assembly districts. With the district results that I found (Senate here and Assembly here), I put in a new column, showing the margin of the 2008 presidential winner in each district, so we can clearly see what our biggest targets are.
Our current numbers in the Senate are 25 Democrats/15 Republicans, with winning 2 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3; and in the Assembly 51 Democrats/29 Republicans, with winning 3 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3.
Roll Call has a new article online focusing on Republican attempts to win in 2010 the Senate seat held by Democratic Senator Blanche Lincoln for the last ten years. The content of the article is a clear statement on how Senate Republicans' only weapon besides obstruction-by-filibuster is toothless bullying.
The article begins by telegraphing how Republicans will attack Senator Lincoln over the course of the 2010 cycle:
This cycle, the NRSC has stepped into the Arkansas race early, attempting to soften Lincoln's poll numbers with attacks on her support for the stimulus legislation and for sending "mixed signals" when it comes to the Employee Free Choice Act, according to an NRSC press release. And when Lincoln announced late last month that Vice President Joseph Biden would join her at her 2010 campaign kickoff this weekend, the NRSC was quick to blast the two-term Senator for being out of touch with voters back home.
"Senator Lincoln's support for runaway Washington spending and her refusal to take a position on 'card check' despite representing a right to work state, are among a few of the important issues we are bringing to the attention of her constituents," NRSC spokesman Brian Walsh said on Monday.
Let's take a look at the foolishness contained in this passage:
It is never too early to look ahead to the next election, and I am doing that with my handy dandy registration tables for the State Senate and State Assembly districts with term-limited and possibly vulnerable incumbents (in italics). Without further Apu, here are the numbers.
And I might as well use this diary to promote my new 2010 California Race Tracker website. Anyone is free to join in and contribute information that will be useful for us going into the 2010 elections.
SENATE 8 incumbents are term-limited in 2010, 4 Republicans and 4 Democrats. I am also watching Lou Correa in the 34th district due to his razor-thin win in 2006 after recounts. The 12th district has the best chance of flipping to us, though if we work very hard in the 4th, like Charlie Brown in CA-04, we may have a chance here too.
ASSEMBLY 17 Assemblymembers are term-limited in 2010, 6 Republicans and 11 Democrats. I am also including the 6 new freshmen (2 GOP, 4 DEM) that were elected by close margins, and 6 reelected Assemblymembers (all GOP) that won by close margins (though Nestande in the 64th was unopposed, the GOP registration advantage is small). The numbers are over the flip.
About 2 weeks ago, we talked about the rising Democratic tide in The Southwest. Now, I want to discuss what's happening in The Northwest. Believe it or not, we have plenty of opportunities up north as well.
Want to come along with me as we look at where we can win in 2010 and beyond?
I love reading nonpartisan Marc Ambinder's blog, as he's very often good for insider tidbits on my favorite hobby of campaigns and elections.
But one little thing he passed off as merely incidental today is anything but......
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I love reading nonpartisan Marc Ambinder's blog, as he's very often good for insider tidbits on my favorite hobby of campaigns and elections.
But one little thing he passed off as merely incidental today is anything but......
) or decreased (
) its likelihood of changing hands since it was last ranked.
