Here we are again. What, you thought one map was enough? Now that the US Senate race is heating up and speculation is picking up on who will be doing what, I wanted to explore alternative scenarios to one I posted earlier this month. So here's another option... But I have to warn you, it isn't pretty.
It is here. After hours of careful line drawing and days of poring over precinct results, the map has arrived. This is Nevada redistricted, baby!
So will the actual final map look something like this? Honestly, I don't know for sure. Perhaps legislators on both sides of the aisle will want even safer seats and are willing to configure some gruesome looking districts to get them... Or perhaps last minute talks of redistricting collapse as a casualty in an ongoing state budget brawl, leaving the courts to ultimately draw the lines. But most likely, as is usual tradition, The Nevada Legislature will agree on some sort of last minute budget deal, and on a bipartisan redistricting gerrymander.
As we all know, the GOP did very well in a lot of state-level races around the country, in addition to their big gains in the House. This was especially true in Michigan, where the Michigan House of Representatives flipped from D to R after a 20 seat Democratic loss, and the Republicans gained seats in the Michigan Senate, going from a 22-16 majority to a 26-12 supermajority. Republican gubernatorial candidate Rick Snyder won convincingly. And over on the Michigan Supreme Court, two GOP-backed candidates (one incumbent justice, one challenger to an incumbent recently appointed by outgoing Gov. Jennifer Granholm) won their races as well, turning a narrow 4-3 "Democratic" majority into a 4-3 "Republican" majority. (The races and the court are nominally non-partisan...but everyone knows.)
There has been much buzz about exactly what this complete GOP control of the redistricting process means for the reapportionment process. Given the fact that Michigan is home, I've been among those wondering just that. This is my attempt at a prediction (or two). As an added bonus, it is my first diary ever here at SSP!
Since I live here in Minneapolis, MN and am addicted to Dave's Redistricting App, I decided to try my hand at redistricting MN two different ways, first, assuming we lose a district and second, assuming we do not lose a district. The 7 district plan is below and should produce a 6-1 DFL map, or at worst a 5-2. The 8 District Map could be 7-1, but will be 6-2 once Peterson retires I think.
I'm very much a compactness kind of guy, but that doesn't mean you can't get a good Democratic Gerrymander with a compact map. The Maps and district descriptions are below the fold:
This is now Episode 12 of my seemingly never-ending redistricting series. (In reality, it has a definite end -- after this diary, there are only 9 states I'm planning to address: California, Washington, New Mexico, Maryland, West Virginia, Virginia, North Carolina, Kansas, and Tennessee. The other 15 states are either at-large states, or are unlikely to see substantive boundary changes.)
Today comes Oklahoma and Wisconsin. I struggled with whether to include Oklahoma at all, since my Oklahoma effort is barely different from the current map. But given the fluid partisan dynamics in Sooner State politics, and the potential issue over how to handle the "conservative Democratic" 2nd District, I thought it might be worth a look. On the other hand, I drew two maps for Wisconsin based on the highly changeable atmosphere in that state's 2010 elections.
So you all know the drill by now - take some VTDs, consolidate them to reflect updated population stats, then piece them together. I couldn't think of a witty title today either. Oh well.
My goals for North Carolina were to:
strengthen Kissell (8th) and Shuler (11th)
draw Foxx (5th) out of her district
obey the VRA - that is, a majority-black district for Butterfield (1st) and a majority-minority district for Watt (12th)
maintain percentages for the other Democrats: Etheridge (2nd), Price (4th), McIntyre (7th), and Miller (13th)
get rid of that touch-point continuity in Guilford County between the 6th (Coble) and the 13th
Update: Many of you have correctly pointed out that NC may be gaining a 14th seat. There's a plan for that in the works too.
Here's the new map (yes, everything is contiguous!):
After a couple-week hiatus, I'm back to Episode 11 of my redistricting series! On tap for tonight's episode: a magnolia founds the next world empire! Or, rather, I've paired two unlikely diary neighbors, New York and Mississippi.
There were a number of people who earlier asked me why I hadn't yet covered New York, one of the obvious choices for an early redistricting diary. The reason is that back in March I drew a map for NY that assumed Jim Tedisco would win NY-20 and be primed for elimination in 2012. Just tonight I redrew New York to, on the contrary, make the 20th more Democratic to help Murphy (though the news wasn't all good, and I'll get to that momentarily).
I am now on Episode 10 of my redistricting series, if you can believe it! Tonight we cover Colorado and Minnesota. I drew two maps for Minnesota -- one if the Republicans hold Tim Pawlenty's governorship in 2010, and the other if Democrats manage a gerrymandering monopoly. (The Dems have solid state legislative majorities, so that element seems set in stone.)
