Another poll on the race for Virginia Governor shows Republican Bob McDonnell keeping his wide lead over Deeds, defeating him 54%-39% with likely voters, and 47%-40% with registered voters overall. The poll's MOE is 3%. McDonnell's wide lead is thanks in large part to independents and moderates.
The only real branch of hope that Deeds can grab onto in this poll is that only 48% of voters polled are certain to vote for either McDonnell or Deeds.
"In a result probably owing more to the shift against Democrats in the national political climate than anything going on in Virginia, Bob McDonnell now leads Creigh Deeds 51-37 in the race to become the next Governor of Virginia. It's not that voters are changing sides from last fall - the 5% of John McCain's voters planning to vote for Deeds is actually equal to the 5% of Barack Obama's voters planning to vote for McDonnell. But Republicans, on a losing streak in Virginia, appear to be more motivated about heading to the polls at this point three months before the election."
I would argue in Virginia it probably has more to do with specific groups, young people and African Americans - the core Obama groups, not taking an interest. Still time to turn it around but hard work all the same.
"McDonnell has a 52-33 lead among independents and has locked up 94% of the Republican vote while Deeds is at 80% with Democrats. There is some good news for Deeds in the poll, as he leads 64-3 among African Americans. The 33% of undecided voters in that group will likely move toward Deeds as the election approaches, tightening up the race."
The strategy is clearly to unite Democrats, to get black voters energized (Obama must get involved - I have faith in the WH here since we know they know the consequences of losing NJ AND VA from that Wilder interview. Must get him on board too) and to work on those indies. Creigh has come from behind once he can do it again.
Deeds took in $3.4 million to $1.8M for McDonnell. Even if you take out the $1 million combined from the DGA, SEIU and AFSCME you are still left with $600k extra. Granted, McDonnell has $5 million CoH to $2.7 million for Deeds but if Creigh can keep this up then money is not going to be the problem it was for him in 2005. And remember, Kaine was badly outraised by Kilgore four years ago but was still able to win.
I have a feeling this race will define the fallout from this November. The results here and in New Jersey won't mean anything with regard to 2010 really but Dems have to win at least one to stop Republicans crowing and being able to use that to build some momentum.
While 2010 will be chock-full of exciting races at all levels of government. In 2009, though, there will be two marquee races across the country: the gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey. Republicans are favored in both races, but both races should come down to the wire, and Democrats can hold both seats - with your help.
In Virginia, Democratic State Senator Creigh Deeds won an impressive, come-from-behind victory for the nomination this past Tuesday, demonstrating a strong ground game. The Republican nominee will be far-right-winger Bob McDonnell. The best description for McDonnell's brand of Republicanism is that he is a Pat Robertson disciple. You can learn more about McDonnell at TheRealBobMcDonnell.com. Deeds and McDonnell have tangled before, in the 2005 Virginia Attorney General race, where McDonnell barely edged Deeds by 323 votes (yes, just 323 votes - that's not a typo with zeroes missing) out of over 1.94 million votes counted. This race will be exceptionally close, so every single dollar contributed and every single hour spent volunteering will make a real difference. A bit of good news is that the first poll taken after Tuesday's primary, by Rasmussen Reports, shows Deeds with a 47-41 lead over McDonnell, but this could just be due to a primary bump. Rasmussen's last poll showed McDonnell leading Deeds 45-30. Your support will help Deeds sustain his new lead.
In New Jersey, Democratic incumbent Governor Jon Corzine will square off against Republican former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie. Christie is very much at home in the Republican Culture of Corruption. Republican Christie has faced scandals involving no-bid contracts, abuse of the state pension system, pay-to-play, and even allegedly cutting a deal to get his younger brother's sentence reduced after being implicated for fraudulent trading practices on Wall Street. Despite Christie's mountain of scandal, New Jersey's lagging economy has hurt Governor Corzine's poll numbers. Recent polling gives Christie a 7 to 13 point lead over Corzine. Research 2000, May 25-27: Christie 46, Corzine 39; Rasmussen Reports, June 4: Christie 51, Corzine 38; and, Quinnipiac, June 10: Christie 50, Corzine 40. In other words, Christie has an edge, but the fundamentals of the race moving forward favor Governor Corzine. As the economy gradually picks up over the coming months and voters learn more about Christie's corrupt background, New Jersey's blue state status will shine through and Governor Corzine should tighten the race back up. Your support will help Governor Corzine tighten the race up even faster.
Below are the links to how you can connect with the gubernatorial campaigns (and - please - contribute anything you can to these campaigns, and spread the word!). Republicans are expecting (and expected) to win both of these races. However, after being upset in the NY-20 special U.S. House election and losing a U.S. Senator to a Party switch, the GOP is reeling. Losing either (or both!) VA-Gov or/and NJ-Gov would be a major body blow and simply crush Republicans heading into the 2010 calendar year. If Democrats across the country are able to support these Democratic campaigns, we can flush the conventional wisdom down the toilet and deliver two more embarrassments to the Rush-Newt-Cheney Republican Party and two more losses to the Michael Steele RNC.
This month we won a historic electoral victory. But our work didn't end on election day - it only started.
As President-elect Obama said on election night:
"This victory alone is not the change we seek. It is only the chance for us to make that change. And that cannot happen if we go back to the way things were."
The time to make real, lasting change is upon us.
Now we must repair the damage inflicted by eight years of Republican misrule, and put our country back on track. As progressives, we must fight to ensure that the Democrats in control of our government respect the voters and enact policies that put the American people first.
This is a critical time for our country. We can't sit back and let the Republicans in Washington push the Democrats to the right. We'd like to as everyone to take a moment to check out our Progressive Priorities 2009 petition, and share it with your friends. Your signing the petition will let our leadership know that we want progressive change, not a Republican-lite government.
One election is over, the next one is coming ever closer with one Presidential hopeful (or wannabe) announcing after another.
You may say it's way too premature to discuss a possible Democratic cabinet with more than two years to go. But hey: we have a tough and largely successful election behind us. Let's just have a little fun for now.
If you enjoy this kinda stuff then follow be below the fold.
