There's already been a lot of analysis of the evolving political trends from 2004 to 2008 (including from me, although still nothing beats that widely-circulated New York Times county-change map) based on preliminary election returns. But with the exception of dreaminonempty's remarkable and must-see map diary over at Open Left, no one has really focused much on what longer-term trends look like, especially at the county-by-county level.
One question I was left with after this election was what areas have changed so much that they used to stick with the Democrats (or Republicans) even in their absolute darkest hour, but now favor Republicans (or Democrats). The darkest hour for Democrats was a pretty easy choice (Walter Mondale); for Republicans, I was initially thinking of Barry Goldwater, but his pre-Civil Rights Act map is just too different from today's map to be useful, so I settled for the GOP's second biggest recent failure, Bob Dole.
As I suspected, Mondale/McCain counties were clustered mostly in the same Appalachian swath where Obama underperformed the most at the statewide level; much of this transition is very recent, as a number of these counties (especially eastern Kentucky and western Pennsylvania) even went for Kerry. There were also some southern counties that are around 50/50 white/black, where enough white voters used to be yellow-dog Dixiecrats to put even Mondale barely over the edge, but collapses in white rural southern voting for Dems at the presidential level has allowed Republicans to take those counties more recently.
To my surprise, there were actually more Mondale/McCain counties than there were Dole/Obama counties. (In case any righties are trolling this article looking for some scraps of solace, there's your takeaway: OBAMA UNDERPERFORMS MONDALE!!!) There are 97 Mondale/McCain counties, and only 85 Dole/Obama counties (or independent cities).
However, there's a key difference. While the Mondale/McCain counties are rural and very small (and generally stagnating or getting smaller), the Dole/Obama counties include many of the nation's largest population centers. The Mondale/McCain counties have a median 2000 population of 16,000, while the Dole/Obama counties have a median population of 103,000. The sum population of all Mondale/McCain counties? 3,197,000. For all Dole/Obama counties: 25,846,000. There's pretty much the story of the 2008 election right there.
More specifically, there are only five Mondale/McCain counties with a 2000 census population over 100,000. Four are collar counties around Pittsburgh (Beaver, Fayette, Washington, and Westmoreland). These are counties that used to be manufacturing and coal-based union strongholds, hence the willingness to vote Dem even in the face of all that was Mondale. Unfortunately, these counties all share one common thread: little in-migration, and an elderly population aging in place (all of these counties are 17-18% 65+, a rate unseen pretty much anywhere else other than Florida)... and these counties become both smaller and more conservative each year as former unionists die off. (Bear in mind John Murtha's comments too, as most of these counties are the core of his district.)
The fifth county is Anoka County in the Minneapolis suburbs, where there may have been something of a favorite son effect in 1984, but this is also an area where exurbanification and the mega-church religious right seems to be edging out traditional rural Lutheran Minnesota values (as seen by this county's choice of congresscritter: Michelle Bachmann).
By contrast, the four largest Dole/Obama counties all have a population over one million: Harris (Houston) and Dallas in Texas, and San Diego and Riverside in California. These are all counties that are young, fast-growing, and most ominously for the GOP, are on the verge of tipping to Hispanic pluralities in the next decade.
Now maybe that can be shrugged off because California and Texas weren't in play this year, but in the 800,000-1,000,000 population range are a number of swing counties in swing states that basically swung the election: Orange County, Florida (Orlando), Marion County, Indiana (Indianapolis), Hamilton County, Ohio (Cincinnati), and Fairfax County, Virginia (DC suburbs). And below that, fully 43 of the 85 Dole/Obama counties have populations over 100,000. Even the loss of the Pittsburgh-area collar counties can be more than compensated, population-wise, with the four eastern Pennsylvania counties that went Dole/Obama: Berks, Chester, Dauphin, and Monroe.
Here's a map of the Mondale/McCain counties (in red) and the Dole/Obama counties (in blue):
Continue over the flip for full lists of the counties...
The 2006 election left a lot of unfinished business: a number of Republicans in Dem-friendly districts who survived strong challenges and got a two-year grace period. The 2008 saw another swath cut through these folks, but there are still some left to be picked off, so this list should give us an idea of where to train our fire in 2010 (and also where to expect retirements). Here are the top 10 most Democratic-leaning districts, rated by current PVI (note that PVIs will change soon, once clearer presidential numbers by district are released) represented by Republicans, before and after this week.
110th Congress
Rep.
PVI
111th Congress
Rep.
PVI
DE-AL
Castle
D+6.5
DE-AL
Castle
D+6.5
CT-04
Shays
D+5.4
NJ-02
LoBiondo
D+4.0
NJ-02
LoBiondo
D+4.0
IL-10
Kirk
D+3.6
IL-10
Kirk
D+3.6
WA-08
Reichert (?)
D+2.3
NY-25
Walsh
D+3.4
PA-06
Gerlach
D+2.2
NJ-03
Saxton
D+3.3
NY-03
King
D+2.1
NM-01
Wilson
D+2.4
PA-15
Dent
D+1.6
WA-08
Reichert
D+2.3
FL-10
Young
D+1.1
PA-06
Gerlach
D+2.2
IA-04
Latham
D+0.4
NY-03
King
D+2.1
NY-23
McHugh
R+0.2
Note that we're down to only 9 GOPers left in districts with Dem-leaning PVIs (with the departures of Porter, Fosella, and Knollenberg as well).
Now let's look at the flipside: Democrats in the darkest red districts. Not as much turnover here, but obviously it suggests Walt Minnick will be our greatest vulnerability for 2010 when he runs against a non-brain-damaged opponent.
110th Congress
Rep.
PVI
111th Congress
Rep.
PVI
TX-17
Edwards
R+17.7
ID-01
Minnick
R+18.9
UT-02
Matheson
R+16.9
TX-17
Edwards
R+17.7
MS-04
Taylor
R+16.3
UT-02
Matheson
R+16.9
TX-22
Lampson
R+15.7
MS-04
Taylor
R+16.3
ND-AL
Pomeroy
R+13.1
AL-02
Bright
R+13.2
MO-04
Skelton
R+10.8
ND-AL
Pomeroy
R+13.1
MS-01
Childers
R+10.0
CA-04
Brown (?)
R+10.9
SD-AL
Herseth
R+10.0
MO-04
Skelton
R+10.8
IN-08
Ellsworth
R+8.5
MS-01
Childers
R+10.0
GA-08
Marshall
R+8.4
SD-AL
Herseth
R+10.0
Nancy Boyda was #13 on the old list, and Don Cazayoux was #19. Kratovil and Markey will slot in on the new list at #11 and #13. Also, note that we now hold the 14th (ID-01) and 19th (TX-17) most Republican-leaning districts in the nation. The flipside of that, if you can imagine, would be if the Republicans held IL-02 (Jesse Jackson Jr. at D+34.9) and MA-08 (Capuano at D+33.0).
You may remember back in July I tried to predict how the PVIs of the various states would look after the 2008 election. (PVI is a tool generally applied just to congressional districts, but you can use the formula for any unit of analysis: states, counties, whatever. Click here to learn a bit more about the method of calculating it.) That was quite the exercise in speculation (nevertheless, if you go back to that diary, I was extremely close on many of them... although that speaks more to Nate Silver's predictive abilities than my own, as I was relying on his mid-July projections for each state, many of which were quite accurate on their own).
Now we have actual state data for the presidential race, so I can return to this topic with more authority. In most people's minds, this was a sea change election, a total map-changer... but if you look closely at the underlying data and not just the colors on the TV screen, it wasn't. Most of the states behaved exactly as you'd expect them to, coming in a few points more Democratic in a year where the Democratic candidate performed a few points better than the previous few Democratic candidates. In other words, most states' boats were lifted the same amount by the one overall rising blue tide.
There were some big shifts and drops, though; where were they? The states where the PVI most notably shifted to the Democrats were Colorado (+3), Hawaii (+6), Indiana (+3), Montana (+4), Nevada (+3), New Mexico (+3), North Dakota (+3), South Dakota (+3), and Vermont (+5). With the exception of Hawaii (favorite son effect) and Vermont (large 2000 Nader effect falling out of the equation), the explanation for these states seems to be a combination of two factors: Obama's greater appeal (maybe personality-wise more so than policy-wise) to midwestern and western states, and the fact that the Obama campaign actually put a lot of ground game effort into these states instead of treating them as an afterthought. (Like the saying goes, "80% of success is just showing up.") Interestingly, in July one other state projected to swing big to the left in PVI was Alaska, but that was prior to Palinmania.
States going the other way were Arkansas (+5), Louisiana (+4), Oklahoma (+4), Tennessee (+4), and West Virginia (+3). (A number of northeastern states had a smaller shift, not because they moved to the right, simply because they were already pretty pro-Kerry and thus didn't move to the left as fast as most other states.) These would tend to suggest that Obama did have at least something of an "Appalachian problem," or at least that he underperformed notably in the states with a high white evangelical/"American ancestry" population.
State
00-04 PVI
04 results
08 results
04-08 PVI
Difference
Alabama
R+10
37/62
39/60
R+12
R+2
Alaska
R+14
36/61
36/62
R+14
D+0
Arizona
R+4
44/55
45/54
R+6
R+2
Arkansas
R+3
45/54
39/59
R+8
R+5
California
D+6
54/44
61/37
D+8
D+2
Colorado
R+3
47/52
53/46
D+0
D+3
Connecticut
D+8
54/44
60/39
D+7
R+1
Delaware
D+6
53/46
61/38
D+7
D+1
Florida
R+1
47/52
51/48
R+1
D+0
Georgia
R+7
41/58
47/52
R+6
D+1
Hawaii
D+7
54/45
72/27
D+13
D+6
Idaho
R+19
30/68
36/62
R+17
D+2
Illinois
D+6
55/44
62/37
D+8
D+2
Indiana
R+9
39/60
50/49
R+6
D+3
Iowa
D+0
49/50
54/45
D+1
D+1
Kansas
R+11
37/62
41/57
R+11
D+0
Kentucky
R+8
40/60
41/57
R+10
R+2
Louisiana
R+5
42/57
40/59
R+9
R+4
Maine
D+4
54/45
58/40
D+6
D+2
Maryland
D+8
56/43
61/38
D+8
D+0
Massachusetts
D+14
62/37
62/36
D+12
R+2
Michigan
D+3
51/48
57/41
D+4
D+1
Minnesota
D+2
51/48
54/44
D+3
D+1
Mississippi
R+9
40/59
43/56
R+9
D+0
Missouri
R+2
46/53
49/49
R+3
R+1
Montana
R+11
39/59
47/50
R+7
D+4
Nebraska
R+15
33/66
41/57
R+13
D+2
Nevada
R+1
48/50
55/43
D+2
D+3
New Hampshire
D+1
50/49
55/44
D+2
D+1
New Jersey
D+6
53/46
57/42
D+5
R+1
New Mexico
D+0
49/50
57/42
D+3
D+3
New York
D+11
58/40
62/37
D+11
D+0
North Carolina
R+6
44/56
50/50
R+4
D+2
North Dakota
R+13
36/63
45/53
R+10
D+3
Ohio
R+1
49/51
51/47
D+0
D+1
Oklahoma
R+13
34/66
34/66
R+17
R+4
Oregon
D+2
51/47
55/43
D+3
D+1
Pennsylvania
D+2
51/48
55/44
D+3
D+1
Rhode Island
D+13
59/39
63/35
D+11
R+2
South Carolina
R+8
41/58
45/54
R+7
D+1
South Dakota
R+11
38/60
45/53
R+8
D+3
Tennessee
R+4
43/57
42/57
R+8
R+4
Texas
R+11
38/61
44/56
R+10
D+1
Utah
R+22
26/72
34/63
R+20
D+2
Vermont
D+8
59/39
67/31
D+13
D+5
Virginia
R+4
45/54
52/47
R+2
D+2
Washington
D+4
53/46
57/41
D+5
D+1
West Virginia
R+4
43/56
43/56
R+7
R+3
Wisconsin
D+1
50/49
56/43
D+3
D+2
Wyoming
R+19
29/69
33/65
R+19
D+0
Once better county data is available, we'll be trying to slice and dice this data in all sorts of interesting ways... for instance, trying to calculate PVIs for districts that are made of a lot of counties (but not for ones that are fractions of huge counties, as county data isn't helpful there).
One of the primary ways to Expand the Map of competitive U.S. Senate seats in 2008 is to empower with resources Democrats in states that Republicans hope to take for granted, so that they can focus on more traditionally battleground states. Four such red states in 2008 are Mississippi, Kansas, Georgia, and Tennessee, where former Governor Ronnie Musgrove, former Congressman Jim Slattery, former state legislator Jim Martin, and former Tennessee Democratic Party Chair Bob Tuke are running to oust ethically questionable Roger Wicker, Bush-cover-up-artist Pat Roberts, Shameless Saxby Chambliss, and Lamar!, respectively.
$100 makes a huge difference. $10 makes a huge difference. We're now less than two months from Election Day. Supporting these red state Democrats at this critical juncture expands the map, makes the NRSC sweat even more, and increases Democrats' chances for overcoming historic Republican obstructionism in the U.S. Senate. Let's keep that momentum going!
Senate Guru is on strike! What are the Guru's demands? To get the Guru back to blogging, we need to raise seven twenty-dollar bills each for red state Democratic Senate candidates Jim Martin, Jim Slattery, and Ronnie Musgrove on the Expand the Map! ActBlue page. Your Andrew Jacksons will go toward a great cause: dislodging Shameless Saxby Chambliss, Bush-cover-up-artist Pat Roberts, and ethically questionable Roger Wicker from the U.S. Senate. So, please, this weekend, send your twenties to these competitive Democrats in red states via the Expand the Map! ActBlue page and get the Guru back to blogging!
In August of 2006, a man named Tim Walberg (R-Tipton) defeated incumbent Congressman Joe Schwarz (R-Battle Creek) in the Republican primary. Those that live in Michigan's 7th District may remember the vicious primary campaign, in which Walberg-- funded by the Club for Growth and other radical right-wing groups-- destroyed the name and good work of a dedicated public servant. Schwarz was conservative, but he was honest and hard-working, and was one of the few "good" Republicans left. And Tim Walberg, a former far-right minister, attacked Schwarz without mercy.
A few days after the primary, I started a blog called Walberg Watch. Originally hosted on Blogspot, I wanted to create an online record of Walberg's extreme positions as the 2006 election approached, facing the terribly underfunded Democratic nominee Sharon Renier. Walberg won that election by just four percent, and I found myself with a new blogging mission: following Tim Walberg's adventure through what will hopefully be his only term in the United States House of Representatives.
Over the last two years, a lot has changed, with much of it building toward the re-launch at the new www.WalbergWatch.com. Below the fold, I'd like to walk you through some of the additions to Walberg Watch. I'm excited by what we can accomplish in the next 126 days as we work to bring about better representation. I hope that by the time you're done reading this, you are too.
As I noted in my wrap-up of the OR-Sen Democratic primary, Speaker Jeff Merkley and the Democrats have the grassroots, the issues, and the momentum. All Republican Gordon Smith has going for him is a campaign bankroll just shy of $5 million.
Smith is unquestionably vulnerable. With enough resources, Merkley will be able to cut through Smith's spin and deliver the facts of Smith's record to the voters of Oregon. But, of course, he'll need the support of people throughout the grassroots and the netroots.
To that end, I have added Merkley to the Expand the Map! ActBlue page and am announcing the "Twenty Twenties for Jeff Merkley" effort. Basically, I'm pleading with twenty of you to contribute at least twenty dollars via the Expand the Map! ActBlue page toward helping Jeff Merkley oust Gordon Smith. Can twenty of you spare twenty bucks to bounce a bum like Republican Gordon Smith from the hallowed halls of the U.S. Senate?
I think we can get twenty twenties in by the end of Memorial Day weekend. Please contribute if you can. Thanks yet again!
{Update: We're up to $335! You've responded amazingly. Can we get to $500? Just another $165. We can do it! If you can swing it, send Hagan $25 right now via the Expand the Map! ActBlue page.}
You read that right. The Senate Guru is going on strike for Kay Hagan! Currently, on the Expand the Map! ActBlue page, Hagan is at $50 raised. Well, the Guru will not write another post until Hagan has crossed the $300 mark. That's right! The Guru is on strike until the community contributes another $250 to Hagan.
Contributions to Hagan will be money very well spent. Hagan's primary victory last Tuesday gave her a great deal of momentum; and, the most recent poll actually sees her in a statistical dead heat with (actually, with a one point lead over) the contemptible Elizabeth Dole. Hagan is well-positioned to make the North Carolina Senate race a top tier battle. But she needs our help with raising the resources necessary to cut through Dole's spin.
We can help make this a top tier race. I feel strongly enough about that that I'm willing to go on strike until we reach the $300 mark for her on the Expand the Map! ActBlue page. C'mon, whether it's ten wonderful people giving $25 each or one generous soul chipping in $250, I want to see the Senate Guru community step up to help Hagan and put Dole on notice.
DSCC 2007 FEC Filing
Total Raised 4rd Q: $13.3 million
Total Raised in December: $6.1 million
Total Raised in 2007: $55.4 million
Cash on Hand: $29.4 million
Debt: $1.5 million
NRSC 2007 FEC Filing
Total Raised 4rd Q: $8.4 million
Total Raised in December: $3.1 million
Total Raised in 2007: $31.8 million
Cash on Hand: $12.1 million
As of the end of 2007, the DSCC's cash-on-hand-minus-debt compared to the NRSC's is $27.9 million to $12.1 million. Massive!
NM-Sen:
Tom Udall (D): $1 million Q4, $1.7 million on hand
Steve Pearce (R): $425,000 Q4, $820,000 on hand
Heather Wilson (R): $515 Q4, $1.1 million on hand
Udall raised more in Q4 than Pearce and Wilson combined!
ID-Sen:
Larry LaRocco (D): $166,000 Q4, $200,000 on hand
Jim Risch (R): $236,000 Q4, $171,000 on hand
Even in Idaho, the Democrat has more on hand than the Republican!
CO-Sen:
Mark Udall (D): $1.1 million Q4, $3.6 million on hand
Bob Schaffer (R): $673,000 Q4, $1.5 million on hand
The Republican raised only 60% of the Democrat in Q4 and has less than half the cash on hand of the Democrat.
KS-Sen:
Greg Orman (D): $450,000 in December alone (recently entered race)
NH-Sen:
Jeanne Shaheen (D): $1.2 million Q4, $1.15 million on hand
John Sununu (R): $922,000 Q4, $3.42 million on hand
Another race where the Democratic challenger outraised the Republican incumbent.
VA-Sen:
Mark Warner (D): $2.7 million Q4, $2.9 million on hand
I'm guessing that Republican Jim Gilmore will report significantly less.
MI-Sen:
Carl Levin (D): $840,000 Q4, almost $5 million on hand
Levin should face only token GOP opposition.
IA-Sen:
Tom Harkin (D): $802,000 Q4, $3.4 million on hand
ME-Sen:
Tom Allen (D): $813,000 Q4, $2.5 million on hand
Susan Collins (R): $965,000 Q4, $3.9 million on hand
My name is Betsy Decillis and I am the Finance Director for the Barry Welsh for Congress Campaign. I've got some exciting news!
First off, today is Barry's birthday. He turns 49 years young and I wanted to make sure everyone had a chance to send him their well wishes.
Secondly, you can still get Sherri's recipe for Double Chocolate Drop Cookies! Just donate $12.10 in honor of Barry's Birthday here and she will e-mail you the recipe. Thanks to everyone that has donated so far!
