Still a solid lead for Beshear, who currently is mopping the floor with Fletcher in all areas of the state:
In Western KY, Fletcher trails today by 8. In Eastern KY, Fletcher trails by 13. In North Central KY, Fletcher trails by 22. In greater Louisville, Fletcher trails by 34.
But wait, there's a wrinkle in the poll: it oversamples Republicans, as Mark Hebert and Mark Nikolas (of the newly-resurrected Bluegrass Report) point out:
In the previous 30 Survey USA polls on Fletcher's job approval, the average percentage of Republicans sampled was just 34.8% -- and the previous general election match-up on Survey USA showed 37% Republican respondents. This means that Fletcher was barely able to tread water in this poll despite a 7 to 9 point advantage from oversampling Republicans. Very, very bad news.
I'd be quite surprised if this one didn't tighten up in the months ahead, given what Mark describes as a utterly stenographic local media willing to carry Fletcher's message, but that's not a new challenge for any Democrat to face.
I'm writing today about Louisiana's current electorate. I'd like to state my opinion of things here as an on the ground resident of the state. I'm doing this because I continue to see countless out of state Democrats post information, or express opinions on the state that I do not agree with. It's my opinion that most people are uninformed, so let me hit you with the truth.
Republicans are scared.
You read right. They're scared here, very deep down I think they're very worried about their strength in this state. When Democrats here, including Markos, post pieces or comments saying Louisiana is lost, or Jindal has a lock on the Gubernatorial race, or even going as far as saying they don't see how Landrieu has a chance of being reelected, they are unknowlingly buying into what I believe is actually a Republican misinformation campaign to discourage Democratic activist in and outside of the state from donating or campaigning for Louisiana Democrats. They want to demoralize our state party by making the average Democrat who's not well informed, here and abroad, think the state's a lost cause. And the fact that so many out of state Democrats believe this is demoralizing, because we need money from the rest of the coutnry to defend our party against a resurgent LA-GOP. If you buy into that rubbish, then our state does become a lost cause, but it will be becuase national Demcorats have written us off.
No comebacks for Ernie yet. Beshear collects the support of 24% of Republicans and 60% of independents, while Fletcher only garners the support of 13% of Democrats (remember: Kentucky has a very wide Democratic voter registration advantage). That's down from 36% of Republicans after the bitterly divisive Republican primary in May, but up from 52% of indies.
Beshear is still in the driver's seat with less than four months until election day.
The coverage of L'Affaire Vitter is just beginning to have its discursive effects: the Republican Party is splintered, and Walter Boasso is experiencing the first phase of what will be an unstoppable surge. According to an Anzalone-Liszt poll cited by Steven Sabludowsky of The Bayou Buzz,
"Boasso has more than tripled his current vote since May, moving from 6% to 21% with just four weeks of a moderate television buy. Currently Jindal leads with 52%, followed by Boasso (21%), Campbell (6%) and Georges (1%). One-in-five voters are still undecided (21%).
Not only has Boasso moved up 15 points, the undecided vote has increased by 7 points, from 14% to 21%. The Boasso television has softened Jindal and Campbell's support and moved some of their votes to the undecided column. (Campbell's support is down to 6%, from 9% in May)."
Walter Boasso educates the voters; Walter Boasso's numbers grow. And I imagine they will continue to grow once voters realize "Bobby" Jindal's misleading message of ethics and change has no real empirical basis. That Foster Campbell and John Georges are yet to air television commercials should be kept in mind. In other words, Jindal will find himself in what will be a bitter but entertaining runoff.
I just got an email from the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee passing on the good news that Democrats in Maine flipped a State House seat from red to blue in last night's special election.
Wow. Just wow. SurveyUSA has the first general election match-up poll between Kentucky Governor Ernie Fletcher and his Democratic opponent in this November's elections, former Lt. Gov. Steve Beshear. Fletcher, whose administration has endured a first term marred by ethics controversies and indictments, just recently turned away a fierce primary challenge by ex-Rep. Anne Northup, who has been regarded as one of the best campaigners in the state. Fletcher's survival might be partially attributed to his deflection of the ethics controversy as "politically motivated" (after all, the Attorney General who handed down the indictments, Democrat Greg Stumbo, subsequently ran for Lt. Gov. on Bruce Lunsford's ticket), and one might suspect that the poll numbers would show a tighter race now that the local pundits have been writing about Fletcher's astounding "comeback". Not so, according to SUSA (likely voters, no trendlines, 5/25/07 results):
Steve Beshear (D): 62% Ernie Fletcher (R-Inc.): 34%
(MoE: ±3.9%)
What an absolutely staggering lead for Beshear, who is now claiming the support of 36% of Republican voters. As long as Beshear keeps a steady focus and runs a smooth campaign, this one could be a slam dunk. All for the better, as holding the Kentucky Governor's mansion should protect Reps. Chandler and Yarmuth from any funky redistricting threats in 2012.
The DCCC is not sitting around waiting for Rick Renzi to resign. According to the Washington Post, they have established a special election fund for the eventual nominee.
If you have a spare moment in your busy schedule, I recommend you visit the webiste of the Louisiana Committee for a Republican Majority, a PAC US Senator David Vitter bankrolls with Washington, DC, money. All the usual suspects are there: Paul Dickson, Wendy Vitter, Boysie Bollinger, David Vitter, TA Barfield, Joseph Canizaro, Michael Polito, Fox News and The Weekly Standard. And there they are rehashing and revising all the 1994 rhetoric, failing to recall that today is the year 2007. "Revolution," "Republican re-alignment [sic]," "Republican domination," "a Democrat [sic] Party in crisis," "trial lawyers," "smaller government," "business friendly," "an end to political corruption:" all the tropes are there for the taking, and Vitter and company are falling on top of one another as they grasp for whatever straws they can find in their twisted fantasy space. It is quite sick, really, especially when one wonders why they are so obsessed with hegemony. For the goal is to present "the next Republican Governor" with a "Republican controlled House." Dissent and debate will not be brooked in their warped vision for Louisiana.
