Dang, from what I could tell

Prosser didn't even win one precinct in Dane county.  Are there seriously no Republican areas in that county?!? That's intense.  

19, Male, Conservative, NC-06 (SC-04 college)  

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by: aggou @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 03:33:20 AM UTC

Madison and inner suburbs

When the votes were being counted, it was about 70-30 before any Madison precincts reported later in the night. It is a very blue area.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

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by: OGGoldy @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 11:53:01 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Funny thing is

Thats not a trend that Republicans can be happy about. The GOP needs to hit atleast 30% in Dane County during a statewide election in order to be seriously competitive. Their number in Dane has been decreasing all decade long. Prosser will likely win this election because of low turnout in MKE city amongst minorities. That won't happen during a Presidential or Gubernatorial election.

23, dude, gay, IL-13

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by: chi787ord @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 14:33:41 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

True, they do need to hit 30%,

but aren't Waukesha, Washington and Ozaukee counties growing around the same % as Dane?

19, Male, Conservative, NC-06 (SC-04 college)  

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by: aggou @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 15:34:42 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

But Dane is already larger, and still has a healthy growth rate

Plus new residents to Waukesha, Washington, and Ozaukee are more likely to be Democratic leaning voters coming from Milwaukee.

None of these are major macro trends, but in a state as closely divided as WI is, the smaller trends add up. Losing exurban rurual areas in Dane County and other surrounding counties (like Sauk) isn't good for the GOP.

23, dude, gay, IL-13

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by: chi787ord @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 15:42:11 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Given how Milwaukee turned otu

The Dems moving out of Milwaukee might not be the most relble Dem votes (or even ones that show up).

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by: rdw72777 @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 15:45:26 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I would assume that

However, someone on this site did a diary a few weeks ago, after the WI Sup ct race, and he showed WI over the years, and in his data map he showed those 3 counties growing exceptionally fast for towards the Republican party. So, I'm not fully sure we could assume that just because they're growing means those new residents are coming from Milwaukii county.  

19, Male, Conservative, NC-06 (SC-04 college)  

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by: aggou @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 16:06:32 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Sean Trende does a good analysis of this

While Dane and some of the western/northern counties are trending Dem, Republicans are winning in Wisconsin due to the large swing to the GOP in the Milwaukee/Green Bay collar counties including Racine, Waukesha, Washington, Ozaukee, and Sheboygan.  

http://www.realclearpolitics.c...

The result is that Republicans are now winning in Wisconsin where they weren't winning before.  This is extremely good news for the GOP.

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by: elucas730 @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 16:11:33 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

And then the WI GOP flushed it all down the toilet.

That's extremely bad news for the GOP.

And there's no "large swing" to the GOP in Milwaukee.  Walker, despite being the County Executive, lost the County 62-38.

And most swing areas that swung to the GOP in 2010 will swing back because of the WI GOP's insane overreach.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

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by: LookingOver @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 16:19:48 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Isn't the Milwaukee County Executive race

a non political race? Where neither candidate has an (R) or (D) next to their name? If that's the case, then I would say that's the reason Walker won, because he didn't have an (R) next to his name when he ran for this position.  

He lost Milwaukee when running for Gov, even tho he was still the County Executive.

For some ppl, if they see an (R) or a (D) next to your name this just will never vote for you, or will vote for the other guy just cause they don't like that specific party.  

19, Male, Conservative, NC-06 (SC-04 college)  

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by: aggou @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 16:30:32 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yes

But I'm just trying to argue down whatever point that guy was trying to make.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

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by: LookingOver @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 16:32:17 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I know, and I was making a point about

how you said Walker lost Milwaukee county in the gov race even tho he was their Executive.

So, I made the point that the reason I believe Walker won the Executive position in the first place is because it's a non-political affliation race. I think one could make a good argument about that.  

19, Male, Conservative, NC-06 (SC-04 college)  

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by: aggou @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 16:41:41 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yeah

But I was arguing to him that Milwaukee is not shifting at all.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

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by: LookingOver @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 16:45:04 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Milwaukee is still a dem county

But Walker, Johnson, and Prosser took a much higher percentage of the vote there than McCain, Bush, etc.

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by: elucas730 @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 16:36:34 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It's a nonpartisan position.

If he had an R next to his name and Kloppenburg herself was a strong candidate, he would have lost for sure.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

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by: LookingOver @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 16:38:08 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Ahh, you just answered my question yourself haha

If an (R) had been next to his name, Walker would've lost while running for the position.  

19, Male, Conservative, NC-06 (SC-04 college)  

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by: aggou @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 16:42:56 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Most likely

unless the Dem candidate was a rotten one

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

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by: LookingOver @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 16:45:54 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

That's true. I mean Cao won in LA cause of the incumbent

19, Male, Conservative, NC-06 (SC-04 college)  

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by: aggou @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 16:52:15 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Dude, Walker, Johnson and Prosser won the state

No shit they did better than Bush and McCain in Milwaukee.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

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by: DGM @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 16:50:20 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Off-year elections

If you are referenicng presidential races in Milwaukee county, we see:

2000: Gore 58%, Bush 37%
2004: Kerry 61%, Bush 37%
2008: Obama  67%, Bush 31%

I really have no idea using those results how you think WI is trending Red.

But for fun i took a look at Guv races in WI the last 3 cycles too, Milwaukee county voted:

2002: Doyle 56%, McCallum 35%
2006: Doyle 62$, Green 37%
2010: Barrett 61%, Walker 38%

And then I looked at Senate races too (still Milwaukee county):

2004: Feingold 66%, Michels 33%
2006: Kohl 74%, Lorge 26%
2010: Feingold 61%, Johnson 38%

Again there is no trend supporting the reddening of WI as a whole or that Milwaukee County has trended towards the GOP in presidential years or Gubernatorial year.

There is spot data showing that Johnson made slight inroads against Feingold, but one data point does not a conclusion make.  And the Kloppenburg/Prosser race really portends of nothing electorally.

Data can be pulled here (it wouldn't hurt to check facts before posting)

http://elections.state.wi.us/s...

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by: rdw72777 @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 17:06:44 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Even more MKE county results

This article by Craig Gilbert lays out the county percentages for the past 30 year. It is where I got the 60 percent rule below.
http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/...
It really just shows how even though Dems hit their mark it the county last year, how much of a GOP wave last year there was.  

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by: glame @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 17:17:34 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yup

Waukesha ponied up a higher vote advantage for Walker than in 2006, and Dane provided a smaller vote margin for Barret in 2010 than Doyle in 2006.

Of course, what the real turning point is outside of this was swings in very small areas that just weren't targeted enough in 2010 given the environment.  When you look at how much jonson/Walker won by, you wonder if more could have been done in Dane county and maybe some other smaller areas to offset Waukesha's improvement for the GOP and helped carry barrett/feingold over the finish line.

However, putting Obama and Kohl at the top of the ticket, its hard to see the GOP doing well at any statewide level in 2012, its just translating that into 2014 that's the concern.

And lord knows if we'll have an Wi-St Senate recalls in fall 2012 also, which could be another thing altogether.

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by: rdw72777 @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 17:22:18 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Also

"winning in Wisconsin where they weren't winning before"?  Is Tommy Thompson and the GOP majority that were in control under him chopped liver?  The reason why they held sway for so long is that they knew that it's a losing issue to attack workers' rights.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

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by: LookingOver @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 16:21:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

In a nutshell, the WI GOP is currently "winning" like this guy is:

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

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by: LookingOver @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 16:27:48 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm sorry to say

that the article you link is laughable at best.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

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by: LookingOver @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 16:22:58 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

apparently it was good enough

To make you so irate that you posted 4 separate responses to it.  Democrats and the unions threw everything they had at Prosser and they still lost.  They had a built in advantage with 300,000 highly motivated public union workers and still couldn't pull out as win.  Wisconsin is going red in 2012, no doubt about it.

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by: elucas730 @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 16:34:04 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Sorry, what was that?

All I could hear you say was "Herp!  Derpderp!"

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

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by: LookingOver @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 16:36:35 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

There may have been a shot at that

late last year.  Now that the WI GOP has electrocuted itself on the third rail, the chances of that are nil.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

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by: LookingOver @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 16:40:09 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The real point here is that winning a non-partisan judge race by a few thousand votes is pretty bad

These races are hardly ever close, Prosser only got enough votes because it's an off year. If a Republican can only win a non-partisan race by a very thin majority, then how do you expect a Republican to win the state with Presidential level turnout?

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

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by: DrPhillips @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 16:41:45 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm not sure that you can back that up

Using an off-year Supreme court race with a poor Dem candidate translates into Wisconsin spinning red in 2012.  The 425K vote margin (56-43) Obama racked up in 2008 doesn't seem likely to dissipate so quickly....that's a lot of votes.

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by: rdw72777 @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 16:43:05 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Excuse me, but Prosser was an incumbent judge, they simply don't lose easily

Particularly when it's a nonpartisan election, and particularly when the candidate running was a sacrificial lamb.

Of course, I'm looking forward to you eating your words when the Democrats' retake the Wisconsin Senate, so believe whatever you want for right now.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

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by: DGM @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 16:45:33 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Really?

As someone who is on the ground in Wisconsin, I do doubt Wisconsin will go red.  The only reason Prosser won this is because of MKE turnout.  Turnout was not what it needed to be and Kloppenberg failed to get over 60 percent.  It is important to remember the 60 percent rule.  With the exception of last year, since 1980 whenever a Democratic candidate has received over 60 percent of the vote in the county, they win, whenever they receive under it, they lose. In a presidential year, turnout will be much higher and I find it hard to see how Obama will not receive at least 60 percent in the county.

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by: glame @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 17:01:17 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

You are being silly

Drawing any broad conclusions from an off year Supreme Court race is beyond foolish.

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by: tommypaine @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 23:07:18 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Huh?

You do know Prosser won comfortably several times last decade don't you? Last time I checked Kerry, Gore and Kohl all carried the state.

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by: conspiracy @ Thu Apr 14, 2011 at 11:29:10 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

those three counties are so red ...

that if they were not included in WI, then Walker wouldn't be Gov. and Johnson wouldn't be Sen. today (I did the math, and w/o those 3 counties included, both Barrett and Feingold win);

in fact, it's funny b/c Walker made comments right after the WI SCT election that disparaged Madison and Milwaukee as somehow being different from the "real" WI (not his wording, but that's sort of what Walker meant) BUT the 3 GOP counties above are actually more of an anomaly in their partisan voting numbers than Madison or Milwaukee (more of a deviation from the WI average in most recent races) ...

you can also see this in terms of Cong. dist voting, w/ every WI district voting for Obama except WI-5 which not only went for McCain, but by a huge margin ...

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by: silver spring @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 18:46:14 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I see a few wards that he won.

But just that, a few.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

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by: LookingOver @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 14:37:44 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I've been messing around with the results a bit

Looks like Prosser only won Hopper's district by 53-47. That's pretty amazing if I've done the numbers right. And bodes poorly for Hopper.

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by: Johnny Longtorso @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 12:40:12 PM UTC

Hopper

I'd rather see Prosser losing in some of the Republican-held recallable districts.  Be nice when someone summarizes this - I can't off the top of my head remember which districts are up for recall and which party currently holds each.

Hopefully we won't find any Dem-held districts where Prosser won.

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by: LanceS @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 12:54:05 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Already found one

The 12th, held by Jim Holperin, went for Prosser with 55%.

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by: Johnny Longtorso @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 13:03:41 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

And Kloppenburg appears to have won Dave Hansen's district by 7 votes.

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by: Johnny Longtorso @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 13:18:05 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

pretty sure there were 2 or 3

It was discussed here a few days ago. Not sure which thread though.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

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by: OGGoldy @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 13:03:57 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

This is what I've managed to figure out on my own

District 2 (Robert Cowles - R) - 57.9% Prosser
District 10 (Sheila Harsdorf - R) - 50.5% Prosser
District 12 (Jim Holperin - D) - 55.4% Prosser
District 16 (Mark Miller - D) - 69.8% Kloppenburg
District 18 (Randy Hopper - R) - 52.8% Prosser
District 20 (Glenn Grothman - R) - 74.3% Prosser
District 22 (Robert Wirch - D) - 51.2% Kloppenburg
District 24 (Julie Lassa - D) - 54.9% Kloppenburg
District 26 (Fred Risser - D) - 82.4% Kloppenburg
District 30 (Dave Hansen - D) - 50.01% Kloppenburg (no kidding, a 7-vote margin)
District 32 (Dan Kapanke - R) - 57.7% Kloppenburg

I'm not sure how accurate these numbers are, given the weird ward splits in a lot of the larger towns, but they're in the ballpark.

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by: Johnny Longtorso @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 15:02:19 PM UTC