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AK-Sen: Stevens Sliding

by: Trent Thompson

Thu Sep 27, 2007 at 3:41 PM EDT

In a recent poll comissioned by the state Democratic party, Alaskan voters said that they were unlikely to re-elect Republican Internet Guru Ted Stevens to the US Senate.

Likelihood to re-elect (Hays Research Group, 9/17-18; June results in parentheses; n=401; MoE=+-4.9%):

Very Unlikely: 29 (30)
Somewhat Unlikely: 16 (13)
Undecided: 11 (6)
Somewhat Likely: 16 (22)
Very Likely: 27 (28)

These numbers are certainly moving in the right direction, as a full 45% of Alaskans say they're unlikely to re-elect the veteran legislator to a seventh full term.

I guess all the corruption was bound to catch up to him at some point.

Trent Thompson :: AK-Sen: Stevens Sliding
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But the demographics in Alaska...
cause me to believe that it will be very difficult to elect a democrat in the good old tundra state. If a democrat, then a very reagan-type conservocrat. I doubt that a progressive or extreme liberal has a chance, unless of course he or she is a once in a lifetime personality.

I have always found it fascinating that the two states not attached to the mainland have such incredibly different ideologies.

Hawaii, with it's strategic military signicance would be, one would think, more republican leaning, simply by virtue of the fact that so many military families are there, is however - not, but rather reliably democratic.

Alaska, the other end of the spectrum, has kind of been left alone and forgotten. When is the last time that a presidential candidate visited Alaska? Nixon in 1960. No major party candidate has taken the time to travel to Alaska in 47 going on 48 years. Wow. Now, wouldn't it be a kick in the pants were Hillary Clinton to pull off an upset in, of all places, AK?

"50-state strategy"?
If I were a presidential candidate, I would visit every state.  Every one of them.  Late primaries, early primaries, small states, large states, deep red, deep blue,...all of them.  Heck, I'd even visit Puerto Rico if I had the time and money.

Seriously, Alaskans are Americans just like the rest of us, just like Californians, Virginians, and Idahoans (or whatever the appropriate term is for any and every state).  Candidates for nationally-representing public office, especially the Presidency, should most definitely care about them, their existence, and their issues.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
she should visit there
If not for anything but shits and giggles.  Who knows, maybe just one visit could really make people in Alaska see that Democrats care about them.

Paraphrasing Ted Stevens...
You see, the Senate, is not something you just take advantage of--it's not a big goodie bag; it's a set of responsibilities.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

Montana is only a little less republican than alaska
and it elected jon tester, albiet narrowly.  with a candidate that's a little more moderate, and willing to take a punch, alaska might be possible, especially against a nutbag like stevens.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

Bill Clinton carried Montana in 1992 and narrowly lost Montana in 1996
by a three point margin while he lost Alaska by a 18 point margin.

Montana has elected Max Baucus for 5 terms.

The last Democrat to win a US Senate Seat in Alaska is Mike Gravel in 1974.

[ Parent ]
only because of perot
otherwise, it would have gone for bush easily, just as it did for dole four years later.  sure baucus has been elected five times, but that's because of incumbency and the fact that he hasn't seen a real race since 1996.  if it was an open race, rehburg would almost certainly win, unless gov Brian "i can't spell his last name" ran, and even then it would be close. 

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
Regarding Montana.
In 1996 it went 44-41 for Dole (Perot was the major third party candidate- cost Dole votes.

In 2000 it went 58-33 for Bush Jr. Nader was the third party candidate - cost Gore votes.

Looking at the inner Western States which is solid red. The Dakotas have a history of electing Democratic Senators- ie Burdick,Conrad,Dorgan,Daschle,Johnson
Nebraska- Exon,Kerrey,and Nelson.

Tim Johnson of South Dakota got elected in 1996 defeating a three term incumbent Larry (accidentially walked in the closet)Pressler.

States like Kansas,Idaho,Utah,Wyoming,and Alaska- has never elected a Democrat to the US Senate since 1974. 

In Kansas- the last competive election in Kansas was in 1996 Brownback vs Docking race.

Idaho- the last competitive election in Idaho was in 1996 between Senator WideStance and Walt Minnick.

Utah- in 1992 between Robert Bennett and Wayne Owens.

Wyoming in 1996- Mike Enzi and Kathy Karpan.

Alaska- in 2004- Lisa Murkowski and Tony Knowles.

[ Parent ]

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