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SSP Daily Digest: 4/6

by: Crisitunity

Wed Apr 06, 2011 at 2:25 PM EDT


Senate:

CT-Sen: Connecticut's open seat Senate race was always destined to be a high-dollar affair, and the money chase is well underway. Former SoS Susie Bysiewicz released a first quarter total of a respectable $500K, but Rep. Chris Murphy, her main rival in the Dem primary, just more than doubled up on that, with $1.1 million raised over the course of his first 10 weeks. (Of course, they've both picked their low hanging fruit on their first trip to the orchard, so the challenge will be to keep up that rate.)

FL-Sen: PPP, who put out general election numbers on the Senate race last week, have the GOP primary numbers... and they find GOP voters saying "Uh, who?" (Y'know, like that guy who used to be the Senator... who somehow is known by only 26% of the sample?) Unfortunately, Connie Mack IV dropped out while the poll was in the field, so, better-known than the other options (perhaps courtesy of his dad, the former Sen. Connie Mack III, who the state's older and more confused voters might think is back) he leads the way at 28, with the actual candidates, ex-Sen. George LeMieux and state Sen. majority leader Mike Haridopolos at 14 and 13, respectively. Additional likely candidate Adam Hasner is back at 5. Don't look for any help on choosing from Marco Rubio: he's just announced that he won't endorse in the primary.

HI-Sen: There still seem to be fans out there for losing '06 IL-06 candidate and Obama admin member Tammy Duckworth, eager to get her into elected office somewhere someday, and the place du jour seems to be Hawaii, where a Draft Duckworth page has popped up for the open Senate seat.

MA-Sen: Salem mayor Kim Driscoll has been the occasional subject of Senate speculation for the Dem primary, along with the mayor of pretty much every other mid-sized city in the state. Nevertheless, she pulled her name out of contention yesterday (all part of the Democratic master plan of not having a candidate to deceptively lull the GOP into complacency, I'm sure). Meanwhile, Republican incumbent Scott Brown (last seen praising the Paul Ryan Abolition of Medicare Plan, rolled out his first quarter fundraising numbers: he raised $1.7 million in Q1, leaving him with $8.1 million cash on hand. That's, of course, huge, but the silver lining on that is that it doesn't leave him on track to hit his previously-announced super-gigantic $25 mil fundraising goal for the cycle.

Gubernatorial:

FL-Gov: With various newly-elected Republican governors in polling freefall, Rick Scott (who can't even get along with his GOP legislature, let alone his constituents) really seems to be leading the way down. Quinnipiac finds his approvals deep in the hole, currently 35/48, down from 35/22 in February (meaning he picked up no new fans in that period, but managed to piss off an additional quarter of the state). Voters says by a 53-37 margin that his budget proposals are unfair to people like them. Voters are also opposed to the legislature's proposal to stop collecting union dues from state workers' paychecks.

MO-Gov: After spending Monday dragging out his fight with those who buy ink by the barrel (aka the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, who broke the story on his fancy-pants hotel habit), Missouri Lt. Gov. and Republican gubernatorial candidate Peter Kinder seemed to dial things down a notch yesterday: he says he'll 'voluntarily' reimburse the state $30K for those expenditures, and while not exactly apologizing, says he seeks "to move this nimbus off the horizon." Um, whatever that means.

House:

AZ-06: After getting mentioned a lot when Jeff Flake announced his Senate run, opening up the Mesa-based 6th, state Senate president Russell Pearce is now sounding unlikely to run according to insiders. (Blowback over his links to the Fiesta Bowl controversy may be the last straw, though, rather than his status as xenophobia's poster child.) A couple other GOP names have risen to the forefront: state House speaker Kirk Adams, who's considering, and former state Sen. majority leader Chuck Gray, who is already in.

CA-36: One more big union endorsement for Janice Hahn in the primary fight against Debra Bowen to succeed Jane Harman: this one comes from the SEIU.

CT-05: The open seat vacated by Chris Murphy is likely to draw a crowd, and here's a new Republican contender in this swingy, suburban district: Farmington town council chair and former FBI agent Mike Clark. Clark has a notable profile for helping to take down a fellow Republican while at the FBI: corrupt ex-Gov. John Rowland. He'll face Justin Bernier in the GOP primary, who lost the primary in 2010.

FL-20: In case Debbie Wasserman Schultz's work load couldn't get any heavier, she just got a new heap of responsibility dumped in her lap: she'll become the new head of the DNC, to replace newly-minted Senate candidate Tim Kaine. She'll, of course, keep her day job as Representative.

MN-08: The Dem-leaning 8th is as good a place as any to pick up a seat in 2012, but there's the wee problem of trying to find somebody to run there. The latest Dem possibility that drew everyone's interest, Yvonne Prettner Solon, the former Duluth-area state Sen. and newly-elected Lt. Governor, won't run here either.  

Other Races:

NH-St. House: I realize that with 400 members you're going to have a lot of bad apples, but still we're up to 3 GOP frosh having resigned already from the New Hampshire state House. Hot on the heels of a 91-year-old member resigning after advocating (literally) sending 'defectives' to Siberia to starve, Gary Wheaton just resigned for driving with a suspended license after a previous DUI (and then publicly suspected the arresting officer for targeting him because of his vote against collective bargaining). And somewhat less dramatically, Robert Huxley eventually got around to resigning after not getting around to showing up for any votes so far in the session.

Remainders:

EMILY's List: EMILY's List is out with its first five fundraising targets for the 2012 cycle. Some of them are to be expected, with high-profile GOP freshmen and already-announced female opponents: Allen West (who may face West Palm Beach mayor Lois Frankel in FL-22), Paul Gosar (who faces a rematch with ex-Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick in AZ-01), and Charlie Bass (rematched with Ann McLane Kuster in NH-02). They also targeted Joe Heck in NV-03 and Chip Cravaack in MN-08, who don't have opponents yet but conceivably could match up with Dina Titus and Tarryl Clark, respectively.

WATN?: Thirtysomething Carte Goodwin seemed to make a good impression during his half-a-year as a fill-in in the Senate (in between Robert Byrd and Joe Manchin), moving him to prime position on the Dems' West Virginia bench, but he says he's not running for anything else anytime soon. Or more accurately, he says the only the only thing he's running for "is the county line." (Uh, with the revenuers in pursuit?)

Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 4/6
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.
Finally.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

.
Sorry! I was impatient today.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
lol


Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

[ Parent ]
?
&c.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Huxley
at least he resigned for being a no show, giving his former constituents a chance at real representation rather than being saddled with a nonvoting member until 2012.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

I'm really thinking
New Hampshire's big state house is not beneficial to the Democratic process at all. It's one of those attempts at pushing closer to direct Democracy, but what it really results in is a bunch of novices, many of whom are not fit to be leaders, being elected to the legislature.  

[ Parent ]
I think Johnny's comment gets to the heart of the problem
It's the wave elections that bring in the novices, not the size of the legislature.  NH is about 41% independent, so when one party is heavily favored (2006 2010) they vote against those in charge based solely on party labels.  I think this might work in VT, NY, or CA (for the last two, it couldn't work any worse)

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
I definitely disagree, completely
It's the size of the legislature. You're talking about 60% turnovers in NH with wave elections. When you have bigger constituencies, it's rarer and more difficult for idiots and inappropriate candidates to make their way into public leadership.

[ Parent ]
Agreed
Didn't the Democrats have three or four no-show Representatives as well after the 2006 elections?

27, Democratic, IL-01

[ Parent ]
but they have less of an impact
in smaller legislature one idiot can have substantial power, look at the senate.  But when you're one of 400 idiots, even 3 or 4 of 400 idiots the effects are minimal.  

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
The odds are his constituents have 6 or 7 other representatives
since the no-shows tend to be paper candidates in multi-member districts who get swept in on a wave.  

[ Parent ]
I'm starting to think
that Tarryl Clark if put in the 8th would run. No one else seems to want. She's a good campaigner too.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

I think she'd probably lose the primary to a serious Iron Range politician
But right now it's entirely possible that she's the only serious candidate who runs.

Male, VA-08

[ Parent ]
A serious Iron Ranger needs to actually run first


[ Parent ]
Jean Westwood
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J...

Debbie Wasserman-Schultz is not the first female DNC chair.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.


Hmmm
Someone on the Twitter said she was the first. You mean you can't always trust what you read on Twitter?!?

[ Parent ]
.
Kinda like you can't always trust what you get off of wikipedia, either? Whoever said she was first didn't do their homework.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
Outside of politics
(And even then only on the obscure pages or the ones dominated by fans/volunteers of the candidates themselves), you can generally trust the information on wikipedia, which is not even getting into the immense convenience and accessibility of academic and popular information and resources that the site provides.

[ Parent ]
For some things
For science and for things with authoriative sources to cite, it's fine.

For history, especially the less well-known bits, it's all but useless, unless you're studying popular beliefs based on 80 year old scholarship. I imagine other fields are similar.


[ Parent ]
I've found the
big picture elements of history to be accurate; names, dates, etc. I wouldn't put too much stock in some of its quotes and anecdotal stories, but still quite useful there, particularly with mythology and paintings. I'm an English Minor and find many of their literature pages to be exceptional too, containing good scholarly references and excellent, thoroughly wide analysis's.  

[ Parent ]
Their science pages tend to be
the most worthless to me, because they're written in such an obtuse and over-complicated manner.

[ Parent ]
because of the scholars that write them
Detailed quantum mechanics, for instance, loses all meaning when dumbed down to 8th grade reading level (where news papers are at)

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


[ Parent ]
.
A response to all of these:

I WAS BEING SARCASTIC.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.


[ Parent ]
I'd disagree
You obviously haven't read what Brian Greene and Stephen Hawking have written about quantum mechanics. They describe complex theory very well without the crutch of obtuse and unnecessary jargon and overly detailed mathematics equations. My big problem with science and scientists. In my science classes, (what I've had to take as a non-major), my equations are often half as long as my teachers'. It reminds me of an old Bertrand Russell piece I read. He spent a full page displaying the proof for 2+2=4, and literally half the symbols on the page I didn't understand; they were math jargon and Greek letters among other things, most of which were probably unnecessary to write out the equations. Seems like a lot of the science pages have a similar problem, with the way they deal with their math at least.  

[ Parent ]
Uh. That proof was a good effort back then.
In mathematics, you need to have a very very solid understanding of WHY you can do the things you can do.

The problem is that Gödel's incompleteness theorems suggest that this is not even possible to achieve. But Russell didn't know that, and trying to prove that 1+1=2 in a set of axioms that are always valid is a valiant effort and not in the least unnecessary.

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)


[ Parent ]
Totally off-topic, but...
IIRC, Goedel's complaint about the Principia wasn't the effort Russell and Whitehead went to (which, like you said, is valuable, even if Russell was doomed due to the Incompleteness Theorem), but rather the notation they used.

[ Parent ]
A lot of times it boils down to "pretty" equations
But as an engineer, taking a LOT of math and math theory classes, the process to get to "pretty" is very very ugly, and tedious. Just be thankful these people figured this out so you don't have to, and can rely simply on the "pretty" equations.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


[ Parent ]
As a math freshman I can totally relate to that.
Even relatively simple and trivial things like proving that every p-adic number can be written as a rational number and vice versa is tedious, ugly and requires several pages.

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)

[ Parent ]
Sorry
But the p-adics are uncountable, whereas the rationals are not. Hence you cannot possibly write every p-adic as a rational number. The reverse inclusion (rationals are a subfield of the field of p-adic rationals) does hold however (which is probably the ugly proof you were thinking of). (And there is no nice relation between the rationals and the p-adic integers, as 1/p^i, i positive, is not in the latter (nor is any multiple by an integer indivisible by p), while these are obviously rational numbers. The integers are a sub-ring of the p-adic integers though.)

Apologies for the off-topic discussion.


[ Parent ]
Sheesh
Seems like you can't trust nothing these days.  

[ Parent ]
Actually
I read somewhere that DWS is the first permanent female DNC chair.  ???  I didn't bother to look it up and I already forgot the other woman's name.

[ Parent ]
2nd
Debra DeLee was DNC Chair back in 1994-1995.

.
No, she's the third.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
3rd
Make that 3rd then.

[ Parent ]
Debra DeLee
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/D...

She isn't even the second.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.


Color me surprised
I really didn't see that coming. A sitting U.S. Rep being appointed to fill in as DNC Chairwoman. I'd like to see Schultz run against Scott or whichever Republican ousts him in the the primary.

Do Democrats have a strong get yet in CT-05? I think holding this district is a pretty sure deal, especially if a teabagger like Bernier with limited credentials gets the R nomination, which seems likely. Obama should get in the 55-56% range here, and Democrats need to start promoting a prominent local figure. In a competitive race the Dem should still get between 53-54% of the vote, and of course I actually figure on the legislature and Malloy administration doing some tweaking and making the new CT-05 a few points more Democratic by shifting more over towards Hartford and Larson, (I believe), who has the votes to share.

CT-04, if I understand correctly, should remain largely unchanged, being located entirely in Fairfield. Which is only natural; the district is perhaps trending Democratic faster than any other in the state, and I don't see Jim Himes going anywhere anytime soon, particularly after winning his freshman reelection campaign in the 2010 environment, and by a healthy 6 point margin.

And Chris Murphy is likely even further ahead of Susan B. in terms of money in the bank, as didn't he have like half a million or so dollars in his House Account that could be transferred over to a Senate race. If he and Heinrich were elected, they, along with Gillibrand, Bennett and Coons would provide the Senate with some definitely needed youth, though I think the Senate's average age is down from the ridiculous 64-ish it was back at the start of 2008.


DWS
She has a very liberal voting record which suits her D+13 district well but probably would not go over well statewide. She might not even beat Scott given that in midterms the electorate skews old.

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
And her district is a lot of old Jews
The GOP want to gut Medicare, well then thanks for handing us FL for a few cycles.  Invoking that fear into people about the GOP should pick us up FL-22 in 2012 and defeat Scott in 2014.  Hell, FL-22 is really starting to sound like a gimmee to me when you think about how it could all play out; less gerrymandering, West supporting eliminating Medicare, West being all-around sucky as a candidate.  And that 28 year old who raised serious dough, well if he has those connections then I'm sure he'll be able to hire some good campaign staff.  Medicare Medicare Medicare, easy enough.

[ Parent ]
It should be, but it never is.
We just need to be prepared to beat back more attacks about health care reform.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
A nimbus is a rain cloud
I think cumulonimbus, which is a storm cloud, might have been a better choice though.

I don't think that was what Chris
questioning. The real crux is the admirably obtuse discussion he was making. It's an almost poetic statement, which I find ironic.  

[ Parent ]
Exactly
Good subtextual analysis... the best way to non-apologize is to disguise the non-apology as an opaque metaphor.

[ Parent ]
Between this and
Todd Akin's "you know engineers," I'm starting to think that being the hokeyest thing on the planet is a prerequisite to run for office as a Republican in Missouri.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
new Arkansas map
http://tolbertreport.com/2011/...

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7

What the hell are they thinking!!!
If the word "dummymander" ever makes it into the dictionary, there should be a picture of this map next to it.

[ Parent ]
It'll never pass the State House
The reason for this map is that the Senate committee on this is split 50/50 for some reason.  The Senate President says that if they can't get a deal the House will take, he'll pull a better map right out of committee for a floor vote.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Reported yesterday here


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
IN-SoS: Democrats proceed with challenge of White's eligibility to hold office

Just a day after I said I hadn't heard anything new lately about everyone's favorite indicted Secretary of State, the news has come in that a court hearing has been held today in Marion County regarding a Democratic lawsuit that seeks to have Charlie White removed from office on the grounds that his voting registration issues made him invalid to run in the SoS election last year.

The Democrats are arguing that state law requires a candidate for office to be not just registered to vote, but registered to vote legally (that is, with their true residency information), which of course is exactly what Charlie White is alleged to have not been. This seems to be only a preliminary step in moving their legal challenge forward. A ruling should come tomorrow.



Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

Refresh my memory.
if the Dems win this, the Repubs are automatically a minor party?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
In some interpretations, yes
That's a possible outcome, assuming that the courts do decide that White shouldn't have been able to run. With that said, I think a bit of caution is important; maybe it's just my reflexive negativity, but it seems possible to me that the ruling might just toss White out but preserve the major/minor/etc party numbers from the election. Of course, I don't know anything about law, so I could easily be wrong.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
They legally...
Cannot do that, according to my reading of the statute.

If they say Secy. White is ineligible for office, all the votes for him are automatically disqualified, I believe.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native


[ Parent ]
Well, then.
Total chaos in the Republican nominating process is only a few court rulings away.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
What's more...
The judge ruling on it tomorrow is apparently a Democrat.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
So, tomorrow is the day of reckoning for the GOP, or
can they appeal it and delay it until the last possible second?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
I believe Judge Rosenberg can order the suit to proceed tomorrow
It's not a day of reckoning, really. But it's a must-get for the Democrats.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Good, they must pursue this


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
I think newly-elected tea-partiers are slowly realizing something very inconvenient.
...the fact that they actually have to govern, and not campaign.

At least, they're not high enough in government where they can get away with political posturing all the time.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


No, they're not realizing it at all......
You're right, of course, a winning party must, indeed, govern and not merely campaign.

But no, they're not learning anything.  Teabaggers are dimwits.

Wisconsin is sweet, and to me Kloppenburg is both a cherry on top and a dose of Gatorade that will help Team Blue carry momentum forward in Wisconsin and elsewhere.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
NV-03 will depend upon...
Whether or not The Legislature agrees on a new map. If they do, it will be gerrymandered a couple points more GOP... But still a swing district that Heck could lose if he doesn't campaign enough and/or if it's a really pro-Dem year.

But if they don't, all bets are off! The courts will have no interest in protecting Heck, so NV-03 will likely be whittled down to The East Side and Henderson under that scenario, meaning the PVI will either stay the same or perhaps become a point or two more Democratic.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


WI: AP verifying numbers from Fox Point
Which is an affluent suburb of milwakee... not a lot of voters, though, which is good...

Verified
Now they are done.

It now goes to the board of canvassers.


[ Parent ]
WI votes by Senate District
It would be very interesting if someone who knows how to do these things could look at the vote totals in the 16 state senate districts that are potential candidates for recall.  e.g., I saw on TPM that Prosser lost 40-60 in one of the Republican recall districts - would be cool to see how the others stack up.

Might give some insight into if any Dems are at risk and how many potential pickups exist.  Although we'd have to be a little careful - I know a number of centrist to left-leaning voters who still prefer conservative judges.


[ Parent ]
Eyeing the results
it looks like Prosser won only narrowly (51-49, possibly narrower) in Sheila Harsdorf's district. No question he lost Kapanke's.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
A littler worried about Hansen
The Green Bay area broke heavily against us.  Also, Hopper's home district had a strong showing for Prosser, although Hopper's got other problems.

[ Parent ]
given the high rate of SC incumbency
how comparable are these votes?  said another way, if this was a different kind of statewide race with party labels is it likely Prosser would have done worse?  

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
A few guesstimates...
Looks like Prosser won the 2nd (Robert Cowles-R), 8th (Alberta Darling-R), 10th (Sheila Harsdorf-R), 12th (Jim Holperin-D), 14th (Luther Olson-R), 18th (Randy Hopper-R), 20th (Glenn Grothman-R), and 28th (Mary Lazich-R).

Kloppenburg won the 4th (Lena Taylor-D), 6th (Spencer Coggs-D), 16th (Mark Miller-D), 24th (Julie Lassa-D), 26th (Fred Risser-D), and 32nd (Dan Kapanke-R).

I can't tell with the 22nd (Robert Wirch-D); it has most of Kenosha, which Kloppenburg won, and part of Racine, which Prosser won. I'm not sure about the 30th (Dave Hansen-D), either; it has Green Bay, which I would presume probably went for Kloppenburg, but some rural territory up north that went for Prosser.


[ Parent ]
I bet we'll see high turnout in all the recalls......
A lot of money will be thrown at them.  Lots of TV ads and direct mail and free media.

Turnout will be sky high just like yesterday.

And I think that will be true even if they're staggered, not all held on one or two days.

It might help us to be able to stagger them.  They're set for Kapanke, go ahead and do that by itself or with Hopper if they have to do more than one together, so resources can be focused.  Get a win or two with those to build momentum for the next round.

Maybe I'm wrong, and admittedly I'm thinking out loud in typing this, but my thinking tonight is we'll have a better shot at getting the state Senate taking the seats one at a time rather than having a bunch together and having to pick up 3 on the same day.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Just for perspective
Turnout yesterday was almost matched by 2008 Democratic Presidential primary turnout. And as I recall, weather was awful there that day.

Of course, it's all relative. . .


[ Parent ]
PPP polling to
see who's this months bonus republican in their prez polls.  normally this wouldn't really be an SSP thing, but Pand Raul winning and, well, I just like seeing the Raulbots lose.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

I chose Huntsman just now.
VOTE!

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Raúl-bots?
Rogue Grijalva supporters?

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.


[ Parent ]
Mr. Raul is He Who Shall Not Be Named
lest we bring the devastation of Raulbots onto our holy land.

[ Parent ]
Pand Raul for President!


[ Parent ]
AAARGH!!!! Don't say that name!!
[ Parent ]
his name
or his son's is like beetlejuice, or candlejack, a mere utterance could summon demons of austrian economics.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
Ah Austrian economics...
The only economic theory that prosperity is achieved by the scarcity of money.

Yes, it makes no sense whatsoever, but it is a lot like feudalism, which is why the right advocates for it.


[ Parent ]
Went with Christie, though I'm fine with Giuliani being polled
Paul will garner 10 percent and Huntsman will get about 5 'cuz nobody knows who the hell he is.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Nah, Hunstman might get a few more votes
because some people think he's a 12-inch-big spider.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
or this guy
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

Sorry, tried to embed, but it didn't work.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.


[ Parent ]
Just early voted
in the Bloomington Democratic primary. Voted for Hamilton over current Mayor Kruzan.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

Hamilton is the husband of the
former Office of Legal Councel nominee to President Obama, Dawn Johnsen.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
Why?
I'll admit I'm not completely familiar with either candidate, but I like Kruzan personally and I voted for him in 2007.

23, liberal democrat, SSP Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college);   DKos: HoosierD42

[ Parent ]
I wish
Susan Sandberg would run someday, I love that woman.

23, liberal democrat, SSP Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college);   DKos: HoosierD42

[ Parent ]
That would be nice.
Her sister was a library aid at my old high school. I voted for Hamilton because he seems to have a clear path forward for the city. They both have pretty much the same ideology. Although I think Hamilton is a bit more liberal.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
Arkansas Democrats and Republicans
Team up to create a 4-0 map. There is seriously something wrong with the Arkansas Democratic Senators for pushing this bullcrap:

http://fwix.com/littlerock/sha...

19, gay male, IL-7, MN 4 (college), Dem


And a map
http://arkansasnews.com/wp-con...

19, gay male, IL-7, MN 4 (college), Dem

[ Parent ]
Here's hoping the House has a little more sense.


[ Parent ]
The House will never accept that.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
I can explain
The Senate committee was split 50/50 and this is the only map that could get through it.  However, the Senate President said they'll pull the House version straight out of committee.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Pull it out of committee
if the House digs in its heel

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
That map isn't that bad...
if they pull Jefferson to the 1st and Lonoke to the 4th. Creates a permanent 3-1 Democratic map. But that's not going to happen, cause the number one goal is to make sure Ross can keep on winning.  

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
Excellent counterpoint
Still, do you think the State House scraps this?  It was a mistake for a legislative body with a clear Dem majority to make their redistricting committee split 50/50.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
HI-SEN
I mean, cripes, it's not like there's a thin bench there.

What will you other old-timers pay me, not to start a Draft Christine Cegelis web page?  

Half the population believes our electoral system is broken. The other half believes it is fixed. Wakeuplaughing.com  


I don't know what
is taking so long for Hirono to announce!

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
Hirono is great
But she'll be 65 in 2012. I'd prefer someone younger.

[ Parent ]
She'll hold the seat for at least
three terms. That's good enough for me.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
it's definitely long enough
to build up some power.  Although, a lot of Senators from the last three cycles mainly younger and newly elected.

[ Parent ]
They have time
I'm sure Danny is chairing a discussion with Maizie, Collen, Brian, and Mufi -- maybe even Donna and Tammy.

(Inouye did mention Duckworth as one good potential candidate, among the others listed.)


[ Parent ]
MO & AR
maps could be passed this week-who knows?

the maps look decent for GOP in AR and good in MO for them


MO may be vetoed
The State House will never accept the Senate map.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
I meant
The AR State House

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
that MO map doesn't seem to protect Cleaver very well
how will the Republicans override a Nixon veto?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
It's actually not much different from the current lines
It cuts out part of suburban Jackson County. I think it's drawn to protect the district from going to a white suburban Democrat (which is why the black Democrats supported it).

[ Parent ]
Hmm
Jacob Turk and the local teabaggers are up in arms about this map claiming establishment Republicans are protecting Cleaver by cutting the most Republican areas of Jackson Co. out of the district.  

[ Parent ]
It was actually passed with support from minority Democrats
so it's probably veto-proof.

[ Parent ]
What's the point of being a Democrat if you're not
even going to try to save one of your own? does it not bother these people at all that a state where McCain won by only 4,000 is probably going to have three times as many McCain districts as Obama districts?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
No, it really doesn't.
You're ascribing altruistic intentions to a body of politicians who are first and foremost concerned about their own self-preservation. Case in point, black Democrats sometimes make deals with Republicans to protect their majority-minority seats at the expense of other Democrats; it's happened here in Virginia.

[ Parent ]
It's just frustrating because
there are ways to protect Carnahan without hurting Clay. It's one thing to throw your friend under the bus to save yourself, but throwing your friend under the bus with no tangible benefits for yourself? That's a special level of brazen.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
But the thing is...
This map doesn't protect black Democrats. It does its best to get rid of Cleaver by diluting his district from D+8 to D+3 (not sure if these are the exact numbers).

As for Clay, he's going to have a safe seat anyways because of the VRA; and even if the VRA didn't exist he'd still have it because Republicans would draw a St. Louis seat to pack Democrats just like Clay's.

This map tries to knock out one black Democrat and keeps one black Democrat who Republicans can't touch anyways.

I honestly don't understand why any black Democrat would vote for it. It suits neither their interests as Democrats, nor those as minorities.

http://mypolitikal.com/


[ Parent ]
Cleavers seat
Cleaver actually loses the most Republican parts of his old district. Cleavers new district is about as Democratic as they can make it.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

[ Parent ]
That's not true, actually
His district in any of the maps I drew is far more urban and far more Democratic. This district definitely shaves a few points off the D+8 PVI, just eyeballing it.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Dammit
That's literally the worst possible map that could have been drawn for Missouri. There's no way Rep. Carnahan holds that seat, and even Rep. Cleaver is gonna have to spend a bit. And every Republican is completely safe.

I hope Rep. Clay is happy, the asshole.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native


[ Parent ]
Clay's seat is VRA
The MO SC can't harm him even if they wanted to.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Exactly.


20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
If it's vetoed, it goes back for an override attempt.
This wasn't the override.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Dream on in AR
That map was the only one to get out of committee.  The Senate President said they'll pull a better map straight out of committee if the House refuses their version.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
NBC/WSJ finds Romney leading GOP pack, Huck, Trump tied for 2nd
I believe this cartoon sums it up quite nicely in Newsday...
http://www.newsday.com/opinion...

21,Democrat, NY-02, male

[ Parent ]
Obama job approval 49-45
Leads generic R 43-38 amongst registered voters.

[ Parent ]
MN-8 EMILY's List
::sigh::  First, just about everything they touch turns to shit.  Here.  Here.  And please someone give me some examples of them being influential in a race for a pro-choice woman.  And I don't mean, they gave someone $500k and paid for ads, I mean it was early money is like yeast and this diva kicked everyone's ass because of it.  I can think of Carol Shea-Porter, although I don't know how exactly to look up expenditures so I'm not sure if they actually did.  But I'd bet money they did and that' the only example I can think of.  (Boyda in KS-2, maybe, it's Kansas so....)

Second, the only reason they are getting involved in MN-8 is because their president was Franken's campaign manager which means she probably really likes the idea of pro-choice Tarryl Clark running and winning MN-8.  Except, this district is very pro-life.  It'd be one thing to do this for the GE, but before she is even a candidate is only making it that more likely that a strong pro-life Iron Range candidate enters the race against her for the DFL ballot-line.  And seeing Oberstar go down because he got tied to HCR and him being viewed as caving on his pro-life values, I'm leery as Clark doesn't need this focus on her before she's even a candidate or living in the district.


Tonight's
Modern Family was dedicated to John Adler, just out of curiosity is he connected with someone at ABC or MF? Just wondering.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

Modern Family was on tonight?
sidereel says they're skipping this week...I thought the newest one is the one where Jay goes drinking with Mitchell and his gay buddies.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Sadly not a new one.
It was a rerun involving the neighbor and the missing dog. Which makes it more weird as I am not sure why they would dedicate a rerun to Adler.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
His brother in law is the show's co-creator, Steve Levitan
And I thought tonight's was supposed to be new as well. But this rerun was one of my favorite ones, Cameron's Native American impersonation just kills me.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Oh, it's that episode.
Don't mess with lesbians in wheelchairs...

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Thanks.


Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Election Day as a holiday?
Backers of this idea in California got approval to start gathering signatures.
http://www.dailybreeze.com/lat...

I think it would be a good idea, since it may encourage more people to vote.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.


just talked to
mike oxley at uc berkeley.

couple interesting things

1) praised much of dodd-frank
2) said gop prez field very weak, scary
3) said charlie cook told him romney has no chance. literally zero.

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)


Romney has no chance at the nomination?
Or no chance at the presidency after being nominated?

[ Parent ]
I would guess no chance at the nomination......
I don't think Romney can beat Obama, but his big liabilities--health care, past hereticism on other issues like abortion and other things, and Mormonism--all are things that hurt in the GOP primaries far, far more than in a general election.  I have to think Cook meant the nomination.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
yes
the nomination.

he said cook said romney and palin are the two with no chance at the nomination

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)


[ Parent ]
In a way, ti's a shame...
He's being punished for his only worthwhile achievement in government.

[ Parent ]
Yeah, really.
I mean, say what you want about Obama, but at least he had a vision for what government and how it would operate. I'm not sure what Romney is supposed to be or supposed to want to achieve.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
I don't trust Cook on Presidential forecasting, and while I used to think the same as him very recently, now...
...I have my doubts whether Romney really is dead meat in the primaries.

He should be.  Good ads against his health care law write themselves, I can write a few off the top of my head.

But the competition is so poor that somehow I won't be surprised if they fail to make an effective attack.

I always assumed the other GOPers would simply gang up on Romney for health care, in debates and stump speeches and in 30-second attack ads.  But now I look at their field and think they're so weak they easily could run such bad campaigns that they fail to do the obvious.

And then if Romney is out, who is it?  Barbour has no appeal outside the South.  Pawlenty is Iowa or bust, really.  If Pawlenty wins Iowa, he could carry that to further victories and the nomination.  But Iowa Republicans are the most insane and most extremist they've ever been, they seem poised to rally around another crazy.  After those 3, it's all crazies.

So somehow I'm now thinking Romney could very well back into the nomination after all.

I'll be thrilled if Romney gets knocked down again, like last time, and then Pawlenty can't win or place a close 2nd in Iowa.  After them, there's no one who's any good at all for November.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Yup, if other major Rs can be discredited in a similar fashion
Romney can win.

Huckabee can beat Romney, but may not run.
While "electability" normally doesn't work, I think Mitt can use it against Palin.
If T-paw doesn't get sufficient funds, Mitt can smother him
I suspect Daniels can beat Romney, but may not run.
Once questions are raised about Barbour's "heritage," I don't think Barbour can win above the Mason-Dixon line, and thus won't survive super Tuesday, if he gets that far.

Or perhaps Trump can take the air away from all of the social conservatives. He's untested in the political arena, so I suspect the gaffes will come there.

It's true, that's a lot of ifs. But all are quite plausible. Gut feel, I give Mitt a 25-40% chance at the R nomination.


[ Parent ]
My dream scenario is...
...a drawn out nomination fight where, because everyone has such big liabilities, no one picks up a tailwind from voters.

Could they even go to a contested convention?

I don't think so, I think late in the process probably the top people would cut a deal.

But if the top people include crazies, they might not cut a deal, and then it goes to convention!

Any ideal scenario for us, and disaster for Republicans, involves one or two crazies hanging in there for the long haul.  I do think Romney, Pawlenty, and Barbour are the only non-crazies, everyone else is whacked, but those three are just weak, and like I said Pawlenty is Iowa or bust.

It's just so delicious.  None of these people will ever, ever, ever be President.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
I take it Charlie Cook has a better record than
Stu "The Republicans Have No Chance of Taking the House in 2010" Rothenberg.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
That was an associate
who wrote for Rothenberg's blog, not Rothenberg himself, I believe.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Rothenberg said that in April, 2009
Every pundit, including Cook, agreed with him at the time.  No one expected the sharp dropoff in August.  No one.


[ Parent ]
Ha!
I had one of the more frustrating conversations with my boss today. He's not a bad guy, nor a dumb one, nor an entirely ignorant one, but there's definitely a mental block going on with his thinking. Obama's the most liberal guy in the country? His inexperience is the reason he's supposedly a crappy president? The Republicans really have nothing to do with it, apparently...if what he's saying is any indication.

It's really quite incredible. I just don't understand how someone can think the way he does, absolving the Republicans from what is going on.

On the other hand, an earlier part of the conversation, where he said that he didn't have to agree with everything the candidate said to vote for him, made me think Obama's approaching the campaign, and a lot of other things, in the right way.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
Iowa Leaders Leaning towards accepting Redistricting Plan
Word is that both the House Speaker (who is GOP) and State Senate leader (who is a Dem) are both leaning towards accepting the current proposed redistricting plan out of the commission.  

http://wcfcourier.com/news/sta...


Thanks, and I'm happy that my family in Marshalltown will get a Democratic Congressman again......
They had Boswell in the 90s, then got stuck with Latham the past decade.  If this map holds, it'll be Braley going forward.

The big question now is what does Latham do?  I bet he moves down I-35 to Des Moines to challenge Boswell, that's his best bet of staying in Congress.

The one wildcard that could cause him to stay put and take on King is that Latham's roots are northwest Iowa.  The new IA-04 is simply his home.

But primarying King would be so hard with as hard right as the state GOP is that I'd expect the odds of his trying that to be no higher than just retiring.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Off-Topic but I hit the political jackpot tonight....
So many things that raced through my mind but I thought that I would share this with you guys....

I was meeting some friends for drinks after work in the Capital Hill area and we went for food afterwards. We were at a normal burger joint and I'm getting a coke and low and behold who comes right next to me; John Ensign! No I wasn't a jerk to him, I'll leave that to teabaggers but he did stop and chat with me about non-political things (he runs a lot or at least chatted with me about that). My friends could care less about meeting a Senator (they didn't even know who he was or his scandal) so I thought that I'd share here.

I never tested my joke with him that if he stayed and ran for re-election and was primaried by Sharron Angle it would be your crazy aunt vs. the guy you don't want near your aunt!


28, Male, Democrat VA-08  


That sounds really cool
I saw James Carville jogging today.  Pretty much everyone at Tulane has a Carville sighting but I didn't until now.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
Lol
you're allowed to graduate now. :P
I feel like the only University of Chicago student who hasn't had an Obama sighting...

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
MA-Sen: Brown at 58% approval, still up double-digits over everyone
If I am reading these results correctly,
there are probably way too many Independents in this poll.

http://www.suffolk.edu/images/...

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
No, that's correct
Independents are 52% of voters here in MA, while Democrats are 36% and Republicans are 11%. This poll is almost pitch-perfect in terms of party ID.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Right, but that's not usually
the party composition on election day, at least recently. That's what I was referring to.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Meh, the poll is about right......
I think it's quite clear Brown has played it smart and is popular, that most swing voters are fine with him.  His job approvals legitimately poll in the 50s, and if the election were held today he'd get in the low-to-mid-50s.

All the polls I've seen show him losing some fraction of people who actually approve of his job performance, that's how the state's strongly Democratic bent comes into play.  But his job approvals are going to have to be dragged down to about 50 to be able to beat him, or else the GOP must nominate a terrible Presidential nominee who drags down the whole ticket regardless of personal favorability or job approval.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Here is another Suffolk poll
http://www.suffolk.edu/images/...

I would argue the situation is quite similar. The favorite has excellent personal numbers and the opposition has low name recognition. Things can change with campaigning, or indeed the lack of it.


[ Parent ]
Yep
And any Democrat has a natural advantage. Campaign well enough to get a solid majority of Democrats on your side and independents not breaking worse than 60-40 against and you're likely within striking distance.

That's why I really don't want Rep. Capuano. He ran a shitty campaign last time. If he really wanted to be a senator, he would have at least visibly tried to beat Atty. Gen. Coakley. But he has all the energy of a squashed aluminum can.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native


[ Parent ]
That is misleading
Reminds me of the Michigan poll being touted last week. Yeah, it matched registration figures for the state but looked nothing like actual turnout in recent presidential years.

In 2004 MA was 39d-16r-44i and 43d-17r-40i in 2008.

"Democrats have argued that Brown's popularity only remains so high because there's been no concerted effort to take a fight to him, which they promise will change in the coming months."

I too believe this is the key.


[ Parent ]
I'm not sure that's true......
The toplines aren't out of whack with other polling.

I think you can do party ID either way, and question wording has a lot to do with it.  They could easily ask are you a registered D/R/I, instead of "are you a" D/R/I or some other formulation.  If you ask specifically about registration, you certainly can get a perfectly valid party ID sample.

And even otherwise, the toplines aren't crazy.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
I don't doubt the topline
It is the same story every other poll has found.

[ Parent ]
DWS
Not a bad choice in itself but I think a fulltimer would have been preferable.


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