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April 5 Election Results Thread #8

by: DavidNYC

Wed Apr 06, 2011 at 1:45 PM EDT


2:39pm: The current margin is Kloppenburg by 204, after factoring in Lake Mills. (That's down from briefly being at a 336-vote edge according to the AP.)
1:54pm: Eric Compas has a cool map of results by county.
1:52pm: Amazing fact from the National Journal:

If Kloppenburg's narrow margin holds up through the potential recount, it will be just the fifth time a Wisconsin Supreme Court justice has been unseated since the court's establishment in 1852.


Man you kids like to chat.

Results:
Wisconsin: AP | Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel
DavidNYC :: April 5 Election Results Thread #8
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April 5 Election Results Thread #8 | 107 comments
you are getting paid to do this now
Quit whining. :)

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

Speaking of which
SSP was down a few times last night (although not nearly as bad as real election nights), is it true that that will basically stop happening once we make the move?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
DK uptime
Is a thing of beauty. Keeping the site running even during super-peak times has been a huge focus of Markos's and the tech team's.
[ Parent ]
Yeah, now if
Yeah, now if they can only fix it so that I can actually comment and reply and post diaries and follow people and join groups and search for stuff and ...  

Sorry, I know migrations to new platforms suck. I'm just pissy because my own migration process is being held hostage by a crazily paranoid Iranian Jew who won't give my own data back to me. And as we alll know, the Internet is a big fucking deal.

Speaking of: I will be following y'all over to DK, at least until I get banned for going off on some delusion Kucinich supporter or something. I'll still be "arealmlc" and I'm sure I'll figure out how to do all the stuff I listed above at some point....hopefully.   :|

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
LAKE MILLS
Prosser+2 with 24 uncounted CONFIRMED

http://www.todaystmj4.com/news...

Large stakes, national implications, photo finish...
you can't blame us for chatting it up. :)

Still, for a judicial election 8 threads does have to set some kind of record.

Yeah, seriously.
If you count the 2010 general as more depressing than fun, I haven't had this much fun since June 8, 2010 (CA, SC, IA, ME, NJ, NV primaries, AR runoff) or May 18, 2010 (PA, AR, KY primaries, PA-12 special). Since November 2011 won't be nearly as exciting as November 2010 or even November 2009, it's only fair that we get our kicks from things like this. I'm also kind of excited for the CA-36 primary, whenever that is.  

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Ive never been so excited
for a random State SC election ever. And the amoutn of posting last night and this morning is insane. We're such freaks. I stayed up till two carefully watching everyones posts then got up at 6 and watched. I was so nervous Prosser would win, but I'm glad it looks like JOK will win.

Btw, does anyone know how many small races across WI we won? Were any of them R-leaning areas that we picked up like small county seats etc.?

21, Male, Gay, Dem, Born: AR-04 ;  Current Residence: FL-02

Just in the Madison area
Stronger progressives picked up two open seats on the City Council from people who are conservative for Madison (but would probably be centrist most other places).  Paul Soglin beat incumbent Dave Cieslewicz by running to his left, after originally losing to Dave by running to his right 8 years ago.  

We defeated a Republican assemblyman's press secretary for Village President and a Republican lobbyist for Village Board in the suburb of Cottage Grove.

Also, a pretty strong progressive picked up the mayor's seat in Monona, and one of the conservatives got voted off the city council by about 150 votes or so, in a rematch after initially winning by just 1 vote two years ago.  

The Dane County Executive's race was 70-30, not a nailbiter at all but what was interesting about that was that the conservative County Board member running failed to even win her own county board district.  

[ Parent ]
We need a full run-down after the dust has settled!
A chart of sorts.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Another neat result
In Oshkosh, Tony Palmeri, who ran for Assembly in 2004 as a Green Party candidate, barely lost.  But a Green Party member getting 47.7% of the vote in Oshkosh is still pretty amazing.  

[ Parent ]
thanks for the info :)
and yes a chart for the races would be pretty awesome after everything is settled!

21, Male, Gay, Dem, Born: AR-04 ;  Current Residence: FL-02
[ Parent ]
Outagamie County Exec
Democrat Tom Nelson, Barrett's Lt. Gov nominee, won the county exec race up there.  He won 52-48 while KloJo only won 43 percent in the county.  Before this, he held a pretty Republican Assembly seat for three terms before running for Lt. Gov and was actually Majority Leader during the 2009-2010 session.  Despite the fact that he is quite progressive, he has mad crossover appeal.  What is more is that he is only 34 so he could be an amazing potential Congressional or statewide candidate.  
[ Parent ]
I was a little disappointed he ran for OutCo Exec
Instead of against Reid Ribble. He would have won either of them.  
[ Parent ]
Adjustment?
Now lead is at 234
Prosser
would leave in August.  I think the legislature is going to pass everything over again and do it right this time.

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7
Read article somewhere
Stating the Repubs would have done that already but they no longer have the votes---not sure where I read this
[ Parent ]
I wonder if it's true that
Randy "Patience, Grass" Hopper is freaking out over the recall.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
that is not what the 8 facing recall want
They want this issue way in the rear view mirror.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
Maybe
Although Fitz maintained that they might not because they supposedly passed it right the first time.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
That map is awesome
so much more blue in the center than in the 2004 map. Klop killed it there. too bad her collapse in the Milwaukee area pretty much canceled out her overperformance in the central part of the state.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
She didn't "collapse" in Milwaukee
Prosser got 54% there in the primary. Her only problem there was that black voters didn't turn out.
[ Parent ]
She collapsed in the Circle compared to 2004
and that Milwaukee performance was pathetic. 57-43 in a county Kerry won 62-37, seriously?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Now they know
Dems preparing for the recall elections, now they know they need to work on strenghtening the turnout in Milwaukee.  I hope they're prepared now.
[ Parent ]
Well, only one of the targets....
...has any Milwakee county ties and that's Darling, and she's only in the outskirts.
[ Parent ]
I really do not know what happened in MKE county
I mean labor went all out for this in the county and had a massive GOTV operation.  Additionally, there was a lot of involvement in the African-American community with Jesse Jackson.  
What really confounds me is there must be some Abele/Prosser voters.  The only reason I think that happened is that Democrats are usually at the top of the ballot in Wisconsin.  KloJo was ordered second on the ballot and Abele was ordered first.  So perhaps people entered the booth thinking "Vote Democrat" and just voted for whoever was ordered first.  
[ Parent ]
Another adjustment
Lead for Kloppenburg is now 336
what??
that's more than 100 votes she just pulled out of nowhere. what is AP doing? they also have yet to account for the last JeffCo precinct.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Just imagine!
If Walker had not chosen to electrocute the WI GOP on the third rail, this SC race would have slipped under the radar along with all of the other little races across the state and Prosser would have won decisively.  Stone probably would have won as well.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
Am I right in thinking that?
Would Stone have won?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Why is suburban Milwaukee so conservative?
I've never understood this. I've wondered for about 6 years now when I first saw county maps of Wisconsin why this is so.

Because, typically, in non-southern states, suburbs since 1992 have represented swing areas - true in Illinois (Chicago), Pennsylvania (Philly), New York (NYC), Michigan (Detroit). In many cases, this move has been what has flipped these states blue. This hasn't happened in Wisconsin - what is different about this area?

WA-07, 34 years old

a lot of germans
whose ancestry has been republican for many years(at least that is my understanding of the demographics there)
[ Parent ]
And by "for many years" you mean "since the 1850s"
German immigrants were one of the core consistencies of the Republican party from it's earliest days.  Unfortunately, so were former know nothings.  A big part of the reason why Lincoln won the 1860 nomination is he hadn't taken a strong position on immigration either way so he was able to appeal to both sides.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08
[ Parent ]
White Flight

[ Parent ]
Whiter?
Here are the aggregated white % of the suburban counties in each state.

Ozaukee, Washington, Waukesha (WI): 91.8
Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Montgomery (PA): 79.8
Macomb, Oakland (MI): 78.7
DuPage, Lake, Will (IL): 67.9
Nassau, Rockland, Suffolk, Westchester (NY): 65.8

Of course, that doesn't nearly explain all of the difference, but it's a start.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

[ Parent ]
Look at how much of that deep blue
is in WI-07.

Between his "$174k is middle class" gaffe and the fact that WI-07 is VERY similar demographically to MN-08 (and can't really be changed in redistricting thanks to occupying a corner of the state), I'd say Duffy is probably one of the most endangered GOP incumbents of 2012.

Less bullish on getting rid of Ryan, though. Kenosha has and always will be light blue, but the rest of that district is pretty hard right.

Of course, this is all for the SC race. 2012 will be higher turnout, especially for our side.

plus duffy is a rookie
ryan is not; the best time to take out an incumbent is ALWAYS his first re-elect
[ Parent ]
Exactly.
Though I always got the sense that if people in WI-01 paid more attention Ryan would at least have a close race. His prominence as chief GOP budget hostage-taker will make his re-election more difficult, esp. in a presidential year.  
[ Parent ]
Racine and Janesville
Are both Democratic. Ryan's district is the 218th most Democratic district, precisely at the median in the country.
[ Parent ]
If I remember correctly,
the current WI-01 is D +2, one of the few D + districts held by a Republican, and probably the only one that wasn't targeted in either 06 or 08.

The Leg might try to shore him up a little by taking some of the MKE suburbs away from Sensenbrenner, but if I were Ryan I'd probably talk to K Street just in case.  

[ Parent ]
recall update?
clearly with this massive turnout(1.5 MILLION)in a race that at best should have been about 900K, you have to believe the recall folks got a huge boost in the petition drive; my question is, does anyone here know where to obtain recall number updates? is there a local blog or something?
I read in one of the threads here that we got 10,000
recall signatures across Wisconsin by setting up tables outside of polling stations.  
[ Parent ]
thank you; a good day's work
and with this election tie, the volunteer base will now be going into overdrive as they see their hard work actually MAKING A DIFFERENCE(the best way to motivate volunteers is show proof that what they are doing actually makes an impact)
[ Parent ]
Another adjustment
Lead for Kloppenburg is now 206
adjustments?
What's causing these adjustments?
[ Parent ]
Corrections, forgotten votes, etc... ?

[ Parent ]
Tabulation errors.

[ Parent ]
tabulation error
So a tabulation error might put Prosser over the top?
[ Parent ]
Unlikely but possible
Franken-Coleman went from C+700 to C+200 before recount due to tabulation errors.
[ Parent ]
Someone asked:
"What's causing these adjustments?"

The AP can't read?  The AP can't add?

[ Parent ]
So when last precinct is in...
it'll probably be at 200 lead for her?


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
A bridge too far.
I think our Supreme Court race truly showed how centrist most people are, either center left or center right. If you, as a politician, try to build a bridge too far past the middle 50%, in either direction, you will find that bridge burned beneath your very feet. Thank God for well-educated Wisconsin-ites.
Prosser comment (I didn't know about it)
From the Journal-Sentinel: "Prosser's private remark calling [Chief Justice] Abrahamson a 'total bitch' was the subject of a recent political ad attacking Prosser."

Wow, Prosser's a badass. He can go be a gangsta rapper since the SC thing didn't work out.  

new Arkansas map
http://tolbertreport.com/2011/...

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7
wow
Terrible map for Ross. 2 of the 3 counties he drops in the southeast went for Obama, and McCain got at least 60% in all of the 5 counties he picks up all or part of in the northwest. Supposedly he wants to run for governor in 2014, but I think he'd have trouble with a serious opponent in 2012 under that map.

Gives a blue dog a slightly better shot in AR1, though.  

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
Lake Mills done. Prosser+2
http://www.lakemillsleaderonli...

Apparently the 364-362 P-K count was final rather than without the 24 handcounted ballots

Looking ahead
One thing that I really like about these election results (besides team blue winning obviously) is that this is a very very close election that during the recall's (I am assuming that at least 3 of them will happen) the narrative of this is going to be a very close election and we need every vote out there is really going to have some significance. Had Prosser won in a blowout some voters may have said "ehh too much stacked against us". Likewise it would have led to some overconfidence if Prosser had been blown out. The fact that the news will be reporting a "very close election decided by a few hundred votes" bodes well. I like the fact that our base is going to realize that they can't take it for granted and that their vote is desperately needed.

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  
...that argument works the same way for the Repubs too.

[ Parent ]
Yeah, but
But higher turnout usually boosts Team Blue a lot more than Team Red. If America, like Australia, essentially forced people to vote, we'd be winning a heckuva lot more races...

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.
[ Parent ]
agreed but
i think our freedom here also includes the right to NOT participate as well as participate
[ Parent ]
I like the idea of compulsary voting
and then adding an option for None of the Above like in Nevada. That way, people that choose not to vote have an option and those that don't vote for other reasons would get to the polls.

21, Progressive Democrat, MN-08 (home), MN-05 (college)
[ Parent ]
I prefer the idea of making election days national holidays
and local election days state holidays.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Also a great idea.
We really don't need a day to get into town to vote anymore.

21, Progressive Democrat, MN-08 (home), MN-05 (college)
[ Parent ]
or do it over weekends.
Make voting possible Friday through Sunday or something.

I wanted to say Saturday, but various religions have provisions about doing stuff Saturday, Friday, or Sunday, so let's just make it the entire darn weekend.  Or at least both Friday and Saturday, so that the votes can be counted during Saturday night, and we can all sleep in Sunday after watching the results roll in.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
a good compromise
as long as the none of the above is not ALWAYS placed at the bottom of the ballot
[ Parent ]
Put it at the top
and make it "None of the below"

30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.
[ Parent ]
that will do the trick just nicely

[ Parent ]
True but..
I agree that the logic goes both ways but a few of these districts that are subject to a recall like Kapanke's which was carried by Obama heavily (61%) and several margin districts that Obama only carried by a handful. Tells me that in a full turnout election people are very capable of voting for a Democrat there. I think its Grothman and Lazich that are from heavily conservative districts so it doesn't help us there I agree. If you max out the turnout especially in Kapanke's district where Obama won with 61% of the vote that can't be good for him.  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  
[ Parent ]
a jelly donut would beat kapanke
if the jelly donut were his only opponent(stick a fork in him)
[ Parent ]
I'd like to think so but he did come close to beating Kind in 10.
Not that next year will have the same favorable dynamics to the Rs but he won't go down without a tough fight.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
Given what happened in WI-07 and WI-08, it says a lot that Kind even won
also, Kapanke's Senate district is bluer than Kind's congressional district.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
He voted to go union-busting.
He voted to go union-busting.
He said it was about the budget then voted for it when it prove not to be about the budget anyway.
He voted to go union-busting.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
As I've said before...
2012 will NOT be a carbon copy of 2010. So while there will be plenty of work to do in Wisconsin next year, I don't think we'll see another massive "Red Tide" there.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
It works better for the winning side than the losing side......
You win like this, you feel like your vote matters.

You lose like this, you're frustrated and second-guess yourself.

Think about how we felt both times after Dubya won.


43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Excellent point, Cool Arrow
Everybody's vote looks ever more crucial now. Plus I love the smell of a close election in the morning...

And hey, check out state Sen. Kapanake's district for the SC race...if I were him, I'd be having night terrors right about now...How's that whole union-hatey, Koch-worshippy thing workin' out for ya there, Dan?

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
Yes, hopefully this means...
Folks will continue being engaged in Wisconsin, and they'll be extra motivated to keep pushing for those recalls.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
the National Journal article says ...
"Less than two months later, Prosser finds himself trailing Kloppenburg by a few hundred votes, albeit with a few thousand absentee ballots left to count."

so, are there absentees left ???

NO
Absentees are immediately included into the total in WI on election night, precinct by precinct

23, dude, gay, IL-13
[ Parent ]
I MUST DISAGREE
david nir(our fearless leader DAVIDNYC)just posted on kos that your interpretation of things is 100% WRONG
[ Parent ]
He's wrong
I'm an organizer in Madison, and absentee ballots are counted on election day. They're sent to the polls and run through the machines by the poll workers as if they were in person votes. The exception is in the City of Milwaukee, where absentees are processed centrally, but they were already processed last night.
[ Parent ]
will you PLEASE post this on kos then
there is a major disagreement here; some posters on kos claim that up to 4,000 votes are outstanding
[ Parent ]
Yeah
I may be wrong about this. It's driving me nuts... but no matter what, some military ballots are still out there.
[ Parent ]
The military ballot postmark rule
Wasn't that provision of the MOVE Act? Wisconsin never enacted it, and got a federal waiver. So that may not apply. I'm not sure.
[ Parent ]
Here's the info
Short answer: you're right about the military ballots.

http://gab.wi.gov/elections-vo...

[ Parent ]
For Spring Election Milaitary ballots have to be in on Election day
http://gab.wi.gov/publications...

See instructions for military and overseas voters.

Military Electors for the Spring Primary/Spring Election/Specials Elections: Ballots must be received (in the certificate envelope) no later than 8:00pm on Election Day.


"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
have they been counted?
does anyone REALLY know for sure
[ Parent ]
According to the OfA website,
they should be - http://my.barackobama.com/page...
The municipal clerk, on Election Day, has couriers deliver the absentee ballots to the appropriate polling site. At some point on Election Day, officials follow a specific procedure to count the absentee ballots. In Milwaukee, absentee ballot will be processed in a central location for the entire city.

[ Parent ]
are the military ballots considered as absentees?
states differ on how those ballots are classified/handled with extra precautions that they be counted even if arriving "late"(since klop has declared victory i will answer my own question by saying that ALL outstanding ballots are accounted for)
[ Parent ]
National Journal = Dumb
The last time they were credible was ... well, I don't think I was even born yet.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.
[ Parent ]
The National Journal
Is not credible? Huh?
[ Parent ]
Are you maybe thinking of
The National Review?
[ Parent ]
Nobody seems to know the state of the count
Apparently even Wisconsin continues to count its votes with all of the transparency of Zimbabwe.

This is a national disgrace, and unacceptable.  

[ Parent ]
The Count
is on Sesame Street introducing numbers to children.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
in my opinion
as long as the SOS in WI knows what the hell he is doing i could care less about the folks here and on kos not really knowing the true count(though i must admit that if the recount ends in a TIE, i am going to love the rematch)
[ Parent ]
Someone posted last night
that the SOS in WI is not responsible for elections.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
ok
whoever the hell it is, there is def a statewide official with some type of oversite; this election will be conducting fairly and if our side somehow manages to actually lose, i don't want to here a bunch of bitchin' and moanin' about a stolen election; i live in FLA, i have been on the ground here when there were ACTUAL stolen elections(volusia county sherrif and of course bush/gore)and this one won't be like that
[ Parent ]
In case you forgot...
We also have races yet to be resolved... In our case, we have Las Vegas, North Las Vegas, and Henderson runoffs in June. Try to make sense of Carolyn Goodman's "victory" speech last night/this morning. (Sorry, but I can't embed it here.)

And in case that wasn't crazy enough, check out the brouhaha brewing in North Las Vegas! And now that all their races are going to June runoff, there will be even more crazy happening there.

The fun is only beginning here... ;-)

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

meh


23, dude, gay, IL-13
[ Parent ]
"Heh", says Carolyn Goodman!

;-)

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
AP now shows all precincts reporting
and Klop's lead down to 204 (since, of course, pros netted 2 votes in Lake Mills). Now we wait for more tabulation errors to be fixed I guess?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
Time to call an Apparent Winner?
I hope so. Barring an adjustments.

23, dude, gay, IL-13
Won't there be a recount?


Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
Students in Madison
who voted provisionally (because they lacked ID) need to get that info to the city by 4 pm today!

http://www.dailykos.com/commen...

From a worker in the City Clerk's office
"STOPPING RUMORS: there are only 3 provisional ballots in the ENTIRE city of Madison; none are from student wards. Stop panicking our voters, everyone!"
[ Parent ]
Kloppenburg declares victory!
We owe Justice Prosser our gratitude for his more than 30 years of public service. Wisconsin voters have spoken and I am grateful for, and humbled by, their confidence and trust. I will be independent and impartial and I will decide cases based on the facts and the law. As I have traveled the State, people tell me they believe partisan politics do not belong in our Courts.  I look forward to bringing new blood to the Supreme Court and focusing my energy on the important work Wisconsin residents elect Supreme Court justices to do.

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/...

Kloppenbrug declares victory!
YES
well done all
[ Parent ]
April 5 Election Results Thread #8 | 107 comments

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