Google Ads


Site Stats

April 5 Election Results Thread #7

by: DavidNYC

Wed Apr 06, 2011 at 10:49 AM EDT


1:29pm: James Hell here. DavidNYC sends an update from another dimension: State Rep. Kelda Helen Roys, who represents the Lake Mills area, said Prosser picked up only 2 votes in Lake Mills, pending the count of 24 handwritten ballots.
12:37pm: Great news - those "missing" two precincts in West Allis (suburban Milwaukee County) were either empty or already counted. So MKE is done and Kloppenburg's vote lead remains unchanged at 224. Now we just wait for Lake Mills (JeffCo) to count. And then, of course, on to the absentees.
11:41am: The final precincts in Juneau and Taylor came in, reducing Kloppenburg's lead to 240 votes. So now we wait on West Allis and Lake Mills.
11:25am: The town of Lake Mills in Jefferson Co. is apparently having issues with its vote count.
11:14am: AP just made some adjustments to previous counties, so now KloJo's lead is at 311.
11:04am: We're using this link for Jefferson & this link (PDF) for Taylor.
10:59am: The AP has finally caught up with us and is also showing the same lead. There are five precincts left: 1 each in Jefferson, Juneau, and Taylor, and 2 in Milwaukee. We believe the Jeff and Taylor precincts are less Prosser-leaning than their counties, while the Milwaukee precincts (suburban West Allis) are much more favorable to Prosser than MKE as a whole. As for Juneau, that's in the good lord's hands.
10:40am (David): We show JoAnne Kloppenburg with a 369 vote lead right now, with Sauk and Ashland complete.
8:57am: The JS is reporting that the last two Milwaukee County precincts are in West Allis, which gave Prosser 63% in the first round.  If indeed the case, those Sauk/Ashland precincts will have some heavy lifting to do.
8:45am (Jeff): Those Milwaukee County precincts were not particularly helpful for KloJo, who is now 606 votes back per our count. This leaves 19 precincts outstanding, if you take the fact that Crawford and Dane are in fact fully reporting.

And we're back!

Results:
Wisconsin: AP | Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel
DavidNYC :: April 5 Election Results Thread #7
Tags: , , , , , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email

April 5 Election Results Thread #7 | 226 comments
AP Update
Hey, anybody up yet?
AP has 3623 of 3630 precincts reporting, and Klop just took a 140 vote lead!
Outstanding 7 precincts are from a mixture of counties that look fairly balanced, maybe slight tilt for Klop.
AP
Now 3625/3630 and Klop up 369
[ Parent ]
Here is
The latest vote count:

Supreme Court REPORTING 99%
 Joanne Kloppenburg 738,883
50%
 David Prosser (inc) 738,514
50%  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

I'm sleepy and confused and
and about 3 of the other 7 Dwarfs LOL.

I feel like this is soccer and the good money to be made is betting on a tie rather than one side or the other winning.  

Here's hoping


24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
AP up to 3623 precincts
They filled in the empty precincts in Dane and Crawford.  They still don't have the +229 from the last two precincts in Dunn, though.

23, male, Democrat, IA-02 (previously CA-26, PA-06, CA-06)
Repost - West Allis results confusing
City site has what seems to be full results from 9:20 this morning. Milwaukee J-S has more total votes from West Allis than actual city does in local race. I'm hoping that it's all in already, and maybe the J-S made a mistake and overcounted the votes.
Mistake would be good!
Would be nice to have one that actually breaks our way.
[ Parent ]
Probably not mistake
Looked again, very unlikely that it was an accident (no constant shifts, numbers off, and all the totals are different.) Not sure what's going on.
[ Parent ]
AP results
Still don't reflect Dunn County's final precincts coming in...

Jefferson, Juneau, and Taylor with 1 precinct outstanding

Milwaukee with two precincts outstanding, but those might tilt slightly for Prosser...

This is what precincts the AP has outstanding:
Jefferson - 1 (currently 58-42 Prosser)
Juneau - 1 (currently 52-48 Kloppenberg)
Milwaukee - 2 (from a town that went for Prosser in the primary)
Taylor - 1 (currently 61-39 Prosser)
Jefferson will be +100 Pross roughly
(extrapolation of precinct data.)

[ Parent ]
The Taylor precinct should only be about another 50
so it all comes down to wtf is up with the 2 Milwaukee precincts.  

25, Democrat, male, Currently living and voting in PA-2, originally form OK-1
[ Parent ]
So, the precincts that are still out per AP:
Dunn (pro-Klopp)
Jefferson (pro-Prosser)
Juneau (pro-Klopp)
Milwaukee (we think pro-Prosser areas outstanding)
Taylor (pro-Prosser)

So, it looks like Klopp will likely lose her lead again today.

Almost certain recount
http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/in...

If the difference is < 0.5%, (about 7400 votes when the initial count is done) "the petitioner is not required to pay a fee"

And for a candidate who is not satisfied with the recount:

Within five business days after completion of the recount, any candidate aggrieved by the recount may appeal to circuit court. The appellant must file the notice with the clerk of the circuit court together with an undertaking and surety in the amount approved by the court.

Absentees
Where do those 8,000 absentee ballots in Milwaukee factor in on any of this? And  take there are other absentees throughout the state as well?

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26
West Allis
 Also voted 55%  for Walker in 2010 while Milwaukee County voted 38% for him. Since P is winning 43% in Milwaukee County now, we should be looking at 59%-60% out of West Allis if it still has not reported.

By the way, have those absentees been counted yet?  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

do you know the size of
West Allis?  How many votes typically come from that precinct?
[ Parent ]
Freaked out for a second
before I noticed that the thousands place had changed. . .
K+447 per AP

Where did those votes come from?
Same precincts remain outstanding.
[ Parent ]
It was a tabulation error, probably.
There was one last night that reduced Kloppenberg's total in Dane County by 10,000 votes.
[ Parent ]
Not too surprising coming from
the Associated "Ken Buck is winning Boulder County 3-1" Press.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Final five precincts
Prosser should net around 125 votes from the remaining three rural precincts.  

It all comes down to what those last two Milwaukee County Precincts are it seems.  Oh, and of course if there are any absentee, provisional, or other ballots.  

There always are
 In 2008, Obama won 1,647k after all precincts reported. After absentees and provisionals were counted, it was 1,674k. Also, provisional ballots tend to favor Democrats. I also expect we will have see a good amount of provisional ballots in Dane County because since there were so many long lines, people may have decided to vote somewhere else.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
Something got tweaked
Still 5 precincts to go, but AP bumped the lead up to 447. Don't feel like looking through all of the counties to find the change.

23, male, Democrat, IA-02 (previously CA-26, PA-06, CA-06)
good to see
someone else from IA-2 interested in this election!  
[ Parent ]
:)


23, male, Democrat, IA-02 (previously CA-26, PA-06, CA-06)
[ Parent ]
So what kind of voting systems do Wisconsin counties use?
If they're touchscreen machines, then a recount won't change the outcome, but if they still use optical scanners or something like that, there's a bigger margin for error.
yes
Per ballotpedia, "direct recording" with voter verified paper trail

http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/in...

[ Parent ]
Direct Recording Electronic voting machines, apparently
per ballotpedia.  They generate a paper trail as well.

None of that hanging chad business so a recount probably won't swing the results wildly.

[ Parent ]
What's left
I'm hearing that Maplehurst is left in Taylor County, and Lake Mills in Jefferson

Jefferson - Assuming uniform shift in votes (which I neglected earlier) and turnout in the county, from precinct data, Klopp will win this ~53-47 (call it 50 votes.)

Maplehurst - 21 votes cast in Feb primary, 12-9 Dems-Pross.

It all comes down to Milwaukee now.

More on Maplehurst
Looks like nobody in Taylor County voted in February.

Extrapolating turnout/shift from Feb primary, Klopp should net 100-130 votes from there.

[ Parent ]
Yeah
Not expecting Jefferson, Taylor, or Juneau to shift the results much, given their small size.

Milwaukee's 2 apparent remaining precincts remain the question.

[ Parent ]
The remaining precinct in Taylor...
Maplehurst, had all of 21 votes in the primary, of which Prosser got 9.

In Jefferson, the last precinct, Lake Mills, had 173 votes in the primary, and Prosser got 97 of them.

Nobody voted in Taylor County in Feb
Take Medford, for instance. 900 votes last night. 48 votes in Feb.
[ Parent ]
State Senate District 32
FWIW in the 1st district to file recall petitions Klop won the 3 whole counties (LaCrosse, Vernon, Crawford) that make up 95% of the District by a 58-42 margin.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
Looks like another precinct reported...
MJS now reporting Kloppenburg lead down to 321.  

Hopefully this was one of the Milwaukee-area precincts, but I doubt it.  

More AP tweaks
Kloppenburg's lead down to 311, no new precincts.

23, male, Democrat, IA-02 (previously CA-26, PA-06, CA-06)
Jefferson Co
Jeff Co says Lake Mills precinct is the one that won't report til today, so assuming that is the precinct we're waiting for, it went 551-431 for Walker over Barrett last year, a -120 differential
the Juneau County site sucks
anyone know where the precinct is there?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
Summary
Klopp should gain 100-200 votes from what's left in Jefferson and Taylor (Maplehurst, Lake Mills)

Juneau - Who knows?

Milwaukee - ??? The million-dollar question.

Reviewing results
OK, anyone reading this is also probably a fanatic numbers and politics nerd, so who has been looking at these results and comments please:

Circle of ignorance around Milwaukee:
Washington Co (West Bend, right?): 76% for Prosser, about 46% turnout
Waukesha Co: 73% Prosser, about 43% turnout
Ozaukee Co: 72% Prosser, about 45% turnout
Walworth Co: 61% Prosser and 36% turnout

Pretty high turnout for counties w/o big local races, huh? Or  am I missing something?

Also, I'm from Appleton (Outagamie Co), home of Prosser and Joe McCarthy.
Out Co elected Dem (officially nonpartisan) Tom Nelson, last term's state assembly dem majority leader over rep former state treasurer Jack Voight by about 2000, but Prosser took county by 6000 votes, 57-43; VERY disappointing. Brown co also went big (55-45) for DP, retaining local advantage.

I think the Circle of Ignorance had local elections too.


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
For County Exec, Milwaukee Co has 100% reported
Per the J-S listings. Also 100% for the West Allis school board election.

Perhaps there are no West Allis precincts left to report?

Very unclear
J-S has more votes in West Allis school board than West Allis site does. West Allis site also appears to have 100% reported; I'm thinking there's some sort of mixup going there (perhaps they added last results for Supreme Court but left it out for school board?)
[ Parent ]
The school board election appears to be a combined West Allis-West Milwaukee district
which would explain why there are more votes listed there than on the city's website.
[ Parent ]
Taylor County
A local person from western Wisconsin (don't know who he is but he's connected to someone who knows his politics) said minutes ago that the Taylor County precinct went to Prosser by 23 votes.  So, Prosser closes his deficit by 23?
If we lose it is in fact b/c of the rez :o
Although I joked about it before, if we lose this one super closely the most glaring (and determinative) small area of  specific under performance really would have been in Menominee County. Someone should have sent an organizer to the rez.

25, Democrat, male, Currently living and voting in PA-2, originally form OK-1
DIsagree
Seems to me like the difference between knowing we won yesterday and pins-and-needles today is the underperformance in Milwaukee. Many more votes could have been gotten there IMO.
[ Parent ]
I'm mostly kidding
Clearly the Milwaukee underperformance is the real biggest reason Prosser may win. I just thought it was funny that -- despite it seeming irrelevance -- it's possible that the massive underperformance in one precinct on the rez really could be determinative if the result was close enough

25, Democrat, male, Currently living and voting in PA-2, originally form OK-1
[ Parent ]
In 2008
Obama netted a thousand votes there alone.  Obviously turnout is way down in an off-year election like this, but you're right, getting another hundred votes there would have been entirely doable if we had made the effort.
[ Parent ]
AP tweak
Prosser appears to have picked up two votes, no new precincts, no change to Klopp's numbers, so the lead is at 309.

17, male, (left of) Dem, OH-9
Not to Be Cynical
But I wonder if Lake Mills is a case of "we never get this kind of attention so lets milk it for all its worth."
The lastest round of AP tweaks...
gave Prosser all of two votes.  Kloppenburg lead now at 309.

23, male, Democrat, IA-02 (previously CA-26, PA-06, CA-06)
More on Lake Mills
According to posted link, 700-760 votes being counted. Klopp should win roughly 53-47 (extrapolation from precinct data.) Call it 0-50 votes for her.
What data?
Anything current? I looked at Lake Mills 2010 gov and they were 551-431 for Walker (-120). I hope I am missing something here...
[ Parent ]
Precinct-level extrapolation
Basically, the precinct in February went 57% Pross. The county shifted from 67% Pross to 57% Pross from primary-> general. Assuming uniform shift, Klopp wins it narrowly.
[ Parent ]
A lot of counties Walker won
flipped hard to Kloppenburg. So I wouldn't put all that much stock in Nov results.
[ Parent ]
Outagamie (Appleton) add'l comment
Also, I calculate Outagamie turnout at about 41% - good, but still less than those right wing enclaves around MKE - and we had a major county exec race and interesting local races.

For city council (district 1)alderperson, a former repub and publicly acknowledged tea party assembly candidate ran unopposed and was DEFEATED by a vigorous write in campaign from the left. So, what gives?

Prosser still gets county 57-43 ---arggh!

Prosser is FROM the County
He was D.A. there, Assemblyman for a couple decades, then ran for U.S. Rep but lost. Call it 2-3 decades of electoral history; I'm just glad he didn't do better.
[ Parent ]
Yes
Yes, he was, unfortunately, my assemblyman - I stated earlier that he kept his home field advantage here and in neighboring counties.
My comment was that it was a major swing from other results:
Co exec went Dem by more than 2000 and Prosser was + 8000. And, I don't recall Out Co ever going dem for exec (officially nonpartisan, but pretty transparent), although it went dem for prez in 2008 - also an exception to historical results.
I am saying that people turned out and countered a trend - a fairly major historical trend - at the county level yet still voted for this guy. It just seems odd.
[ Parent ]
New precinct!
Outstanding Juneau precinct just reported. Klopp leads by 263.

17, male, (left of) Dem, OH-9
Juneau Co. done
And the margin drops to Kloppenburg +263 (net loss of 46 votes).

23, male, Democrat, IA-02 (previously CA-26, PA-06, CA-06)
Juneau fully in according to AP
Kloppenberg margin down to 263.  Seems this wasn't a great precinct for us.  
And another...
Taylor also in.  Margin 240.  
[ Parent ]
And another!
Final Jackson precinct just reported. Lead's now at 240, down 23 from when Juneau reported.

17, male, (left of) Dem, OH-9
Jackson?
Wasn't that the last outstanding precinct that tends to lean Republican?
[ Parent ]
Bad?
Seems like this was a disappointment; we were expecting to pick up a bit of ground in Jackson, no?

17, male, (left of) Dem, OH-9
[ Parent ]
Yep
But nobody voted there in Feb, so very hard to extrapolate
[ Parent ]
More AP tweaks
AP just tweaked numbers, Klopp now leads by 224 (down 16).

17, male, (left of) Dem, OH-9
[ Parent ]
Taylor is in too
240 klop lead now statewide
Jefferson Co
Last I heard, Jefferson Co would net Prosser 100 votes. This would leave Kloppenburg 140 vote lead with those 2 remaining precincts in Milwaukee Co.
AP - Klopp +274
Another adj - +274 for Klopp but still @3627/3630
I see 224 n/t

[ Parent ]
+224?
Think your numbers are off, I have 739,350 to 739,574, a lead of 224.

17, male, (left of) Dem, OH-9
[ Parent ]
Yes, 224
Don't know if I misread or if there were a couple adjustments.

3627/3630 DP - 739,350 50% Klopp- 739,574 50%

[ Parent ]
Does anybody
Know the wards that are still outstanding in West Allis?  Ward 34 is an empty one, so I wonder if that is one of the wards not in yet.
Recount procedures
When counting paper or optical scan ballots, questions often arise concerning the intent of the elector. Poll workers have a duty to attempt to determine voter intent and give effect to that intent if it can be determined. Poll workers are expected to use common sense to determine the will of an elector based on the marks made by the elector on the ballot. The decisions of the poll workers may be reviewed by the board of canvassers conducting the recount.  Wis. Stat. §§ 7.50, 7.51, 9.01(1)(b)11.

Even if an elector has not fully complied with the provisions of the election law, votes should be counted as intended by the elector to the extent that the elector's intent can be determined.

The Government Accountability Board has a manual, "Counting Votes," which is designed to assist the board of canvassers in determining voter intent.  A copy of the "Counting Votes" manual is
included in the Appendix.  See Wis. Stat. § 5.01(1).

http://gab.wi.gov/sites/defaul...

David, where are you seeing 240?
AP shows Klop +224.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
240 is SO five minutes ago ;-) n/t

[ Parent ]
From to 240 to 224
Couple of adjustments and the last precinct brought it here from 240.
[ Parent ]
Someone just commented at dKos
that Ward 34 in West Allis is empty. I'm not sure if this is one of the outstanding precincts, or if it is in fact empty, just passing along the info...

http://www.dailykos.com/commen...

Nice!
Does anyone know if that's one of the missing precincts?

Also, do we know how many votes we can expect in total from the remaining precincts in West Alis? We know Lake Mills is around 700-760.

[ Parent ]
Most likely outcome looks to be a Prosser win by less than 100 votes.
Assuming the one outstanding Jefferson district votes like the rest of the county, Prosser will pick up 87 votes there.

As for Milwaukee, assuming the two precincts have the average population for a precinct in the county (470 people), and he gets roughly 60% of the vote in both, he'll net around 188 votes.  

This brings him to +275, which erases Kloppenburg's lead.  

Of course, this is only assuming everything goes right for him.  If one of the remaining Milwaukee precincts is empty, or he substantially under-performs in any of the outstanding three districts, it could easily go back to Kloppenburg.  

Overestimating Prosser's chances?
I'm no expert on Wisconsin politics, but I've seen others here who have said that Lake Mills (where the Jefferson precinct is) is somewhat less red than the rest of the county.

17, male, (left of) Dem, OH-9
[ Parent ]
Have the Milwaukee absentees been thrown in?
Just got up a bit ago and didn't see anything about that, but I remember it was a big deal last night, what with ~8k absentees outstanding.

Thank goodness I didn't have class this morning...

28, Male, MI-09 (home), MD-07 (school)

Should be counted soon, if not already
http://my.barackobama.com/page...

The municipal clerk, on Election Day, has couriers deliver the absentee ballots to the appropriate polling site. At some point on Election Day, officials follow a specific procedure to count the absentee ballots. In Milwaukee, absentee ballot will be processed in a central location for the entire city.

[ Parent ]
Does anyone know
exactly how many absentee ballots are still to be counted? Or is it once the last precincts come in it's over, except for a recount?  

19, Male, Conservative, NC-06 (SC-04 college)  
we must all be SICK
in some weird fashion to be following this race(at least it is a dead heat; heeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeerrrrrrrrrrrre comes lucky!!!!).............
Lake Mills projections...
There are between 700 and 760 ballots left to count in Lake Mills, Jefferson County.

Prosser won 59.5% in the primary in Lake Mills. That means netting between 100 and 137 votes for Prosser.

BUT -- and this is crucial -- JeffCo went 67% for Prosser in the primary and only 58% for him in the general. So if you make the same adjustment for Lake Mills -- that Prosser will lose about 13.4% of his own vote share -- you're looking at 51.5% total vote share in this general in Lake Mills.

So, at that number... a net of 21 to 24 votes for Prosser. Not so bad. Then, it's off to West Allis, with about 215 votes to spare.

will someone please tell me
what in the f-ck is an 'empty precinct'? and is this unique to WI elections?(i have been involved in DEMOCRATIC party politics for forty years and this is the first i have heard of these 'empty precincts')
An empty precinct in Wisconsin is...
...an undeveloped parcel of land with zero population.

Wisconsin will draw "precincts" for all the land in the state, including such undeveloped land.  Needless to say, those particular parcels are "empty," as in, no people, no polling places, no votes.

And there a gobs and gobs and gobs of these empty precincts.

So when the AP updates totals through the evening, we never know how many unreported precincts in a given county are "empty."  For example, as it turned out, for a good length of time last night GOP-heavy Waukesha County had massive numbers of votes reported, but only about one-quarter of precincts reporting.  It turned out most of the unreported precincts were empty, so when the AP got around to updating them, the vote totals were unchanged.  This happened in county after county.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
THANK YOU
my next question would be, do they actually need this type of accounting?this is 2011(but thank you for your response)
[ Parent ]
I have no idea, I've never lived in Wisconsin, I'm just plagiarizing what...
...other commenters who live or have lived in Wisconsin have said in these election result threads.

It's obviously not "necessary" since no place I've lived, 3 states plus D.C., has done such a thing.

But every state is different, and I guess Wisconsin sees no reason to change what it does.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Anyone have a clue on provisional ballots in WI?

West Allis has some Dem precincts
http://county.milwaukee.gov/El...

Barret beat Walker in a couple West Allis precincts, so it may actually add to Klop's total, depending which precincts are still left.

precinc size
Precinct size in 2010 also ranged from 1400 voters to 150 on the low end...do who knows.
[ Parent ]
Thanks so much for that link!
The two unreported precincts have 200 voters between them!
[ Parent ]
How do you know?
I couldn't find precinct information on the Milwaukee site...
[ Parent ]
Rumor on dKos/Twitter
is that MKE is all in, no outstanding precincts.

http://www.dailykos.com/commen...
http://twitter.com/evanmurdock...

That would be excellent
I almost don't want to get my hopes up, though.  Close elections are so frustrating!

23, male, Democrat, IA-02 (previously CA-26, PA-06, CA-06)
[ Parent ]
According to my local Milwaukee news (TMJ4)
They did say before going off the air last night (around 2 am central time) that everything in Milwaukee WAS counted but not everything was reported to the AP. So when that batch of 10 out of the remaining 12 was reported to AP you have to wonder if that was the rest.
[ Parent ]
The MKE County Exec election reports 100% in (as of 12:30 am CT)
consistent with 0 outstanding precincts in that county.
[ Parent ]
Lake Mills rumor
just returned from the town of lake mills poll they are waiting to count 24 handwritten ballots otherwise the results from there are K-362 P-364 this is the last jefferson county ward to report

http://www.facebook.com/permal...

itskevin, that's quite the find, and it regards what now are the final votes......
I have no idea if there are still absentees or provisionals throughout the state, but at least regarding what's in the AP totals, those Lake Mills votes are it.

So your catch, if reporting correct information, means Kloppenburg finishes the 1st count with a lead in the AP totals.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
If/When this goes to court
I don't think we will have a pro Prosser Judge.

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/...

In one twist, state law calls for Chief Justice Shirley Abrahamson to appoint the state judge who would hear the case if the loser of a recount in a statewide election goes to court over the outcome.  Abrahamson and David Prosser, the incumbent in the Supreme Court contest, have clashed on the court. Prosser's private remark calling Abahamson a "total bitch" was the subject of a recent political ad attacking Prosser.


"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
payback's gonna be a "total bitch" too


22, male, VA-10
[ Parent ]
WEST ALLIS MOSTLY EMPTY!!!!
Precincts 34-35 of West Allis have no results yet on county website. These are the empty West Milwaukee precincts

In 2010, there were 0 votes in 34, and ~200 in 35 (+40 Walker). It looks like we've won.

Link?
I didn't see results on the county site for this election...
[ Parent ]
This election
http://www.ci.west-allis.wi.us...

Go down to April 5 results

Everything included. Misread it at first; sorry about that.

[ Parent ]
Never mind
Misread city results page.

It looks like West Allis is all in already, and the AP just isn't acknowledging it.

[ Parent ]
Do you have a link?
I can only find primary results. Thanks.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
Now the question is...
What precincts are the ones the AP hasn't counted?

LOL

[ Parent ]
Update on Milwaukee County:
The City of Milwaukee Election Commission says all spring election ballots, including absentee ballots, have been tallied.

http://elections.wispolitics.c...

Has AP updated yet though?


17, male, (left of) Dem, OH-9
[ Parent ]
And:
With Milwaukee officials say all of their votes are in, the Lake Mills votes may be the final ones to be tallied in the Supreme Court race.

http://elections.wispolitics.c...

[ Parent ]
says City of Milwaukee all counted
Not county of Milwaukee

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
Maybe the writer is confused?
He says in a separate post (above) that the Milwaukee news means only Lake Mills remains.
[ Parent ]
AP Milwaukee county all in
No change in totals

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
Beat me to it
:)
[ Parent ]
You snooze you lose :)


"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
You both
beat me.  Zzzzzzzz....
[ Parent ]
AP shows Milwaukee all in
No change, they just had their stuff wrong

1 precinct to go, not enough to change it. Klop wins pending recount, absentees. :)

Not sure but....
... I believe absentees have to be in by election day and are counted election night.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
AP shows Milwaukee all reporting
no change, still Klop +224. Guess they were empty

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
Absentees
In WI they get sent to the polling place and counted along with the Election Day votes. There should be no absentees left to count.
then we win
at least the first count; ON WISCONSIN!!!!.............at least on to the recount...........
[ Parent ]
After Dane Co. last night
It sure feels good to see the empty precincts break in our favor.

23, male, Democrat, IA-02 (previously CA-26, PA-06, CA-06)
Nice
All down to that last precinct in West Mills, Jefferson County.  People seem to be predicting that it's going to be a wash, since the town is bluer than the county.  Looks like Kloppenburg wins the initial count (of course, most of the media is still running with the "Prosser narrowly ahead" line from last night).
how many absentees?
also, does WI have provisional ballots? or some others?
Absentees counted election night..
... and since they have same day registration there is no need for provisional ballots.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
thanks
it is always good to go into the recount on top(and this would appear to be the case)in a recanvass you want the other side to prove your lead is not justified(not the other way around; it is all about the narrative of being 'ahead on election night')
[ Parent ]
Provisionals and absentees
I am a poll worker in Appleton for major elections - every two years, more or less. Not this election.

My understanding - this is firsthand - absentee ballots are delivered to precincts (from the city clerk's office) on election day, usually in the afternoon or evening. They are then counted in the election night totals.

If there are any other absentee ballots to be counted, I am not aware of them. I also don't ever recall awaiting WI election results due to absentee ballots, as is famously the case for some other states. If someone knows otherwise, please speak up.

I'm a little fuzzy on provisional ballots, but I know they are extremely rare. I vaguely recall that we are trained on how to do them, but I don't recall ever doing one. I seem to recall one person (over many years)having to do one. So, at best they are extremely rare.

[ Parent ]
thanks; now rid yourselves of those damn 'empty precincts'
and all will be right in the world.......
[ Parent ]
Same day registration is great
for removing a lot of the need for provisional ballots.  Infuriates me when Republicans push to abolish same-day registration.
[ Parent ]
right now
you basically have 1.5 MILLION votes cast; what was the november guv? anyone? bueller?
2.2 million
I think
[ Parent ]
2,160,832
according to the Green Papers.

23, male, Democrat, IA-02 (previously CA-26, PA-06, CA-06)
[ Parent ]
2.2 million.

[ Parent ]
thanks
great gotv effort from both sides in this one  
[ Parent ]
2.98 million in 2008

[ Parent ]
Lake Mills Results
On facebook, people are saying Lake Mills results are : 362 Kloppenburg, 364 Prosser with 24 ballots left to be hand counted. Looks like we won this round!  
excellent
why the hand count? did the machine not read them properly? or are absentees not fed through the machine like regular ballots?
[ Parent ]
Ran out of ballots
They used photocopies which the scanner could not read because the paper was too thin, or something along those lines.
[ Parent ]
Oh, please. Oh, please.
No cats, dryers, or cat fud involved here.  Just...oh, please.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
AP updated again
No new precincts (i.e., no Jefferson County), must've been a numbers adjustment.  Now Kloppenberg +235.

28, Male, MI-09 (home), MD-07 (school)
AP
is OK when it goes in that direction.

(I'm still mad at them for making me think there were a zillion votes in Waukesha outstanding last night.)

[ Parent ]
That was way too stressful
I was so relieved when they updated and nothing changed.

28, Male, MI-09 (home), MD-07 (school)
[ Parent ]
That was indeed totally ridiculous.
What a huge way to mess up, and though it made little sense it still looked like Waukesha was about to seal the deal for Prosser at any moment.

Twitter.com/Taniel
[ Parent ]
Yeah
I was going around predicting Waukesha would give Prosser another 25K votes (based on them showing 65% reporting), and then all of a sudden whooosh up to 100% reporting, with no change in totals.

Why are empty precincts the last to get reported?

[ Parent ]
Lake Mills
It seems (based on looking at a couple of elections) that the Town of Lake Mills tends to vote with the City of Lake Mills.  And Kloppenburg won the City of Lake Mills, if I remember correctly.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
Klopp: AP +235?
I am starting to not trust my eyes. From AP's site:

3629/3630 Prosser - 739,354 50%
               Klopp     739,589 50%

+235, right? With just Lake Mills, which looks like absolute worst case is -120, and maybe much better.

+235 is what I see
Probably just to mess with us, Lake Mills will bring it to a tie.

I know I shouldn't joke like that, but the way this thing see-sawed back and forth, it would be the ultimate twist.

28, Male, MI-09 (home), MD-07 (school)

[ Parent ]
So far - seems good!
May be even very good - most of the people probably expected Prosser to win relatively easily when this campaign began. Walker, IMHO, "overdid" his hand.I will not say that i am very much a "public unions man", but i clearly don't like his heavy-handed tactics..

But i think a long recount and possible court hearings looms ahead..

Lake Mills
I have now seen dozens of posts on twitter and facebook indicating that Lake Mills split 362 for Kloppenburg and 364 for Prosser. You can wait for official results, but I'm going out on a limb to trust these report. There may be 24 or 56 ballots pending. But unless there was a tabulation error somewhere else, it looks like Kloppenburg will be ahead going into the recount
Tweet
It looks like that information came from a local TV reporter, so it seems valid, which would give Kloppenburg a rough lead of 233 votes.  

24, Gay Dude, Democrat, DC-AL
[ Parent ]
Did a search
Apparently, one of Kloppenburg's volunteers/canvassers went to Lake mills and came back with that report (there are definitely 24 ballots pending per Lake Mills news.)
[ Parent ]
Wisconsin's not the only place to have empty precincts.
In Santa Clara County, CA we have precincts with only a few families or sometimes no one at all.  I have no idea how precincts get drawn- there are huge, small, full, and empty precincts with no rhyme or reason at all.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


is this ALL the ballots?
a poster on kos keeps saying that some absentees with proper postmark are still outstanding; is this the case? also, are all military votes accounted for? this recount is going to be epoch(especially if the KOCHROACHES lose)
?
Epoch? or epic?

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.
[ Parent ]
In other good news....
Chris Murphy raised 1.1 million in his first quarter.
http://www.chrismurphy.com/blo...

Going back to the subject at hand...
This is good news. All last night I have gone from optimistic to pessimistic to everywhere in between.  If she wins, this is a real, resounding triumph!  Abele winning was good as well.

Yet more reason to hope Prosser loses:
http://thinkprogress.org/2011/...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

Yeah, last night was such a roller coaster
but the fact that we kept it close, and won the Milwaukee CoExec race, is very good. And for the cherry on top, we will probably go into the recount ahead by something like 200 votes, which isn't that easy to reverse even in a statewide recount. Right now, I would imagine Klop's chances of winning in the end are somewhere north of 50%.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
It looks like it's going to recount with 225 vote lead for her.
Also, as DCCyclone said, it is very rare for an incumbent justice to lose barring a major scandal.  This looks like it'll go down into the list of exceptions underneath Rose Bird of CA (the Chief Justice appointed by Jerry Brown way back who the conservatives ran out of town because of her opposition to the death penalty).

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
It's also very rare for an incumbent justice to scream "Bitch! I'll destroy you!"
At least, I hope it is...for America's sake.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
?
This isn't an exception. This is just another one in a long line of scandals. The bitch stuff is definitely scandalous.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.
[ Parent ]
I meant
something like a serious misdemeanour or something.  But yes, this is scandalous.  Fortunately, he had allies running ads to dilute the narrative against him.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
And Iowa 2010
I wonder if there's a wiki list...

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)
[ Parent ]
Prosser nets 10 in Lake Mills
So Klop takes a 225 lead into the recount.
Cool.
that's a pretty solid margin, actually, that isn't too likely to be reversed, unless they magically discover votes in Prosser strongholds (which I guess isn't out of the question, recalling MN 2008 and NY 2010). Still, triple digits is enough to make me feel relatively calm.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Hearing more rumors that Lake Mills counted, Pross+10
In any case, the good guys win today!
The Kelda Roys note is from Twitter
And she was citing the Facebook rumors, same as us :)
And Kelda Roys also doesn't really represent Lake Mills
She represents Waunakee and the north side of Madison.  I am not sure how the JS posted that.  The representative for Lake Mills is Andy Jorgensen.  
[ Parent ]
riddle me this batman
why are there 24 handwritten ballots out?(did they run out of regular ballots yesterday?)
Yes they did
They used photocopies of the actual ballot, but because the paper is a lot thinner, the machine can't read it.  
[ Parent ]
thanks

[ Parent ]
WI Supreme Court vote totals - past races
From the Appleton Post Crescent (Prosser's hometown newspaper which, btw, endorsed Klopp):

2011 - 1,452,182 (at time of publication)

2009 - 793,864

2008 - 830,450

2007 - 831,657

2006 - 502,688

2005 - 552,790

2003 - 800,785

2001 - 552,429  (Prosser, unopposed)

2000 - 817,748

That's insane
and definitely bodes well for us.  I don't think there is any way Obama fails to win this state next year.
[ Parent ]
I thought the absentees had been counted already...
Like sane people, WI counts them along with the rest of the vote, unlike other states which wait weeks to do so (for no real logical reason--absentees should be counted first!)
Absentees
Yes, I would bet a lot of money you are correct. I do not recall ever awaiting absentee totals for WI election results.

I mentioned earlier that I am a poll worker in WI (although not this election) and the absentees are delivered to the particular polling precincts from city hall (after it closes at 4:30pm) and they are counted with the ballots cast that day in person.

If there are others I would be surprised.

[ Parent ]
Prediction results (barring recount)
Shout-out to Nhoj who predicted 50/50, edge Klop. I don't think anyone else got that close.

I think if you aggregate in the Milwaukee CoExec race, then Johnny Longtorso wins on average (52-48 Klop, 59-41 Abele).

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

"DavidNYC sends an update from another dimension"
Hey, if DavidNYC has fallen into the time vortex, can you tell him to do some GOTV yesterday in the Milwakee city limits?
I'd "like" this comment if I could


22, male, VA-10
[ Parent ]
I thought
that Prosser would lose by 10 points or so.  This was much closer than I thought it was.  Prosser closed at the end for some reason.  Not sure why.

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7
Proof?
There were rumors that Prosser's internals showed the race roughly tied towards the end, but I don't think there was ever proof that Kloppenburg was ahead, besides people's guts.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
3 words: Mil-Wauk-Ee


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
I always figured
that Prosser would win by 10 points actually, more or less matching his performance in the open primary.  It's fairly unusual for an incumbent judge to be recalled, short of scandal...ignoring that case 2 years ago where an appointed judge who had never faced the voters before was bounced, it has been 43 years since the last incumbent judge has been defeated in Wisconsin.

For a judge to go down because of the overall political atmosphere is even stranger, and really speaks to the way things are going in Wisconsin.

[ Parent ]
Mike Murphy
on Twitter last night said Prosser was down high single digits 7-10 days ago.  I know judges are usually not voted out but there is usually not much of a reason to do so.  No one usually pays attention to these elections.  I just thought all of the energy was on the left and that Prosser would lose due to turnout.

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7
[ Parent ]
It shows how difficult it is to win for us...
...in a post Citizens United world.
[ Parent ]
Thanks for tip re Murphy, that's the first tidbit of evidence it was ever anything but a pure tossup. But on what happened...
...the last week or two, Prosser's allies finally joined the air wars in earnest, including putting up a good retaliatory ad against the sex offender priest attack ad.

TV ads work, and Prosser's allies finally getting some on the air let him compete.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Sex offender ad
That's a good point, I think the Prosser response ad was very effective for him.

I still don't understand it; I genuinely think that it was a substantial distortion of the facts - which are in the public record - but an ad with a victim of the priest (that he in fact did NOT prosecute and who DID go on to abuse others) is, nonetheless, very effective.

Also, the turnout in the Circle of Ignorance (MKE suburbs) was way high - mid 40's generally - and their support actually exceeded Walker's totals from last year in some cases. Bizarre, but also a good indication of where we need to do some work.

[ Parent ]
I think what we're in for next election
is one where the energy is on both sides more or less equally.  I wouldn't be surprised next year if over 150 million people turn out to vote (2008 saw 132.6 million).
[ Parent ]
Maybe the Mayweather ad...
...maybe the Journal Sentinel endorsement (would explain the weird Milwakee disconnect between Abele and Klop).  

I think it was that Sarah Palin endorsement and the teabagger robocalls.  They woke up the base, and the GOP base knows how to vote, unlike our base.

[ Parent ]
Not really that weird...
Open seat vs. incumbent election probably explains most of it.
[ Parent ]
*points to Madison*
Ahem!

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Madison showed up
And they showed up big time. Kloppenburg swept Madison with massive margins in alot of the precincts (Madison Central Library was 89% for Kloppenburg, bless their hearts). It was minorities in MKE that didn't show up.  

23, dude, gay, IL-13
[ Parent ]
Also, I think the Circle of Ignorance had local elections
just like Dane and Milwaukee counties, so that must have driven turnout there.

(Also, the Circle of Ignorance needs to be the official SSP abbreviation for Ozaukee, Washington, and Waukesha counties)

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

[ Parent ]
I think Fox News and the teabagging GOTV crew...
...played a more important role in that.
[ Parent ]
you underestimate the tea-bagging crew
and their gotv machine(a fatal flaw in politics)turning out their base(6 months ago this race would not have been close; we would have lost)
[ Parent ]
I don't underestimate them at all...
They are much better at voting than we are... I was hoping that their GOTV crew came in a little too late, but they didn't.
[ Parent ]
agreed completely
you do know my response was to another poster and not you(what you posted is dead on; these folks are masters at base turnout where our side is still fundamentally lacking in certain areas)
[ Parent ]
AP: Lead now 336 for K, w/o Lake Mills nt

How did that happen?
All the other precincts were in!
[ Parent ]
Fixing errors, I suspect.

[ Parent ]
Uh oh....
Back down again...
[ Parent ]
Lead is down to 206... n/t

[ Parent ]
What I dont get is
how Dane and Waukesha Counties can be such polar opposites and be so geographically close. Even the suburban/rural areas of Dane went for Kloppenburg, yet Prosse got a massive margin just maybe 50 miles away in Waukesha.

I think Nate Silver said in 2008 that Wisconsin and Oregon were the two most polarized states in the country in terms of political identification. Lots of liberals and lots of conservative... and less inbetween.

23, dude, gay, IL-13

Dane vs. Waukesha
Dane is liberal because of the university community and all the state workers (it's the home of the state capital).

Waukesha is basically the white flight exurbs from Milwaukee of Milwaukee.

[ Parent ]
Ouch, another update.
Down to 206.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
Oh, man, not again...
I can't take this stress!!!
[ Parent ]
TMJ4 reported Lake Mills results
They updated during their broadcast that the count was:

P:376
K:374

It might have been 378/376 or 374/372 but the point is, the additional paper ballots kept the margin at +2 for P. Aka Lake Mills gave us a much needed wash.

NOT REPORTED TO AP YET
Editing what I forgot to say. I hate how there is a lag between when the numbers are counted by the county but not to the statewide total.
[ Parent ]
And now the AP keeps changing its numbers every few minutes...
What a horrible job they've done reporting this election.
[ Parent ]
I think AP does the best they can with
working with the local election officials and what they report back. Really, with so many votes cast (almost 1.5 million votes) and the closeness, things are going to fluctuate. Usually, we don't notice because the winner usually has already been declared and the results get slightly adjusted during the week.  
[ Parent ]
Probably not AP's fault
I am sure all the counties are re canvasing their numbers and finding small mistakes. It happens every election but we don't notice unless the race is extremely close.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
Really, if it's anyone's fault
it's the state of Wisconsin for not having a central place for the local election officials to report to.  
[ Parent ]
in fairness
this race is clearly going long but the key point is our side being able to write the narrative that after election night, we were in the lead(even with these 'adjustments' i would be shocked if the changes amount to over 500 votes which is the way the tally works; every time you take one away from us you give to the other side and vice versa)
[ Parent ]
I said about 31 minutes ago
that I expect Klopp to lead by about 200 votes when this initial count is done: http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pos...

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
Rep. Roys doesn't represent Lake Mills
Her district is entirely within Dane County.

However, Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald does represent the town. The Assembly rep is a Dem named Andy Jorgensen.

AP changes again!
No change in the margin, though... Still waiting for them to report Lake Mills.
Jefferson done...
http://www.jeffersoncountywi.g...

Total P: 13238
Total K: 9741

That's a difference of +378 for prosser from the current AP versus only +105 to Klop, more than enough to change the margin.

Someone check my math, please...

I'm getting vote margins of 3495 and 3497, a difference of two votes.

[ Parent ]
Thank you...
I suck at math!
[ Parent ]
Numbers changed again...
Looks like the Jefferson County stuff, but the precincts have not been updated.
Ah, now it's 100%! n/t

[ Parent ]
AP still verifying numbers from fox point...
...looks like a red suburb of milwakee... Not a lot of voters, thank goodness...
April 5 Election Results Thread #7 | 226 comments

Copyright 2003-2010 Swing State Project LLC

Primary Sponsor

You're not running for second place. Is your website? See why Campaign Engine is ranked #1 in software and support among Progressive-only Internet firms. http://www.mediamezcla.com/

Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?

About the Site

Publisher: DavidNYC

Senior Editor: James L.

Senior Editor: Crisitunity

Contributing Editor: Jeffmd

Search the SSP archives:

SSP Resources

Presidential Vote by CD

SSP Document Collection

Race Tracker Wiki

Dave's Redistricting App

Blogroll

Daily Kos Elections
DemConWatch
Five Thirty Eight
Governing
Hotline On Call
Political Wire
Pollster.com
Prop*50
Public Policy Polling
The Thicket
Powered by: SoapBlox