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April 5 Election Results Thread #4

by: jeffmd

Wed Apr 06, 2011 at 12:04 AM EDT


12:05am: Move along, move along, like I know you do.
12:05am: Prosser is now up by about 2,200 votes.  With most of the precincts in Dem-leaning territory...but these precincts have to be substantive, and not empty, as we've seen plenty tonight.
12:01am: Eau Claire County may not give us as much of a boost as expected - most of the city of Eau Claire is reporting, with 11 of the 21 outstanding being from the city.
11:56pm: Looking at Marathon County, there could be good news left for KloJo - most of the outstanding precincts appear to be in the City of Wausau, which should help her recover her lead, or at least be empty (which is better than the 54-46 margin Prosser has there thus far).
11:53pm: Bad advance news from Racine County, which based on the County website is fully reporting and has KloJo losing by 6K votes, not 3k.  This moves the needle to 4.90%.
11:46pm: Waukesha is now entirely reporting, with the last 68 precincts being all empty.  The needle stands at 4.98% away from Prosser...or a 182 vote Prosser lead when all is said and done.
11:42pm: The Las Vegas Mayoral runoff spot has been called for Chris G, evidently.
11:40pm: We're at 94.6%. It comes down to something as simple as this: how much of Waukesha and Ozaukee are actually reporting? Just think, if Waukesha is indeed all reporting, that brings us to a final projected margin of 175 votes for Prosser.
11:33pm: FUCK. A bunch of Dane precincts just reported, with no votes. This likely owes to the various tendrils of the city of Madison that have their own precincts...but no residents.  This moves the needle to 3.87%...count me pessimistic.
11:26pm: Waupaca County just reported in bulk, showing a 7% swing to KloJo as has been characteristic of the Fox Valley/northeastern Wisconsin. The needle's at 4.45%...where's still just a little bit short of where we need to be.
11:23pm: I've been neglecting Las Vegas...where the Clark County is not showing any results for me.  But, Carolyn Goodman is out in front, with Chris G and Larry Brown separated by 30 votes!
11:15pm: 90.4% reporting now, and KloJo is clinging to a 4K vote lead.  The wildcard is still the Milwaukee burbs, which are lagging at 65% reporting...but who knows what's actually reported.
11:11pm: Looking at FDL County, KloJo's swings in the Fox Valley continue to be apparent: after having given Prosser 72% in the first round, FDL only gave him 61% this time around....a big improvement.
11:07pm: Before Professor Jeff gets into precincting procedures, it could be relevant that Wisconsin draws election precincts (which it refers to as "wards"), and that many of these precincts left could be empty.  I'll also note that very few MKE precincts are empty...and that the empty ones Milwaukee precincts are actually part of Waukesha (2) and Ozaukee (1).



The sucker in me likes being optimistic.

Results:
Wisconsin: AP | Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel
Chicago: AP
SC: SC SEC
Nevada: Clark County

jeffmd :: April 5 Election Results Thread #4
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Typo on AP Website
AP website says that Kloppenburg has 134,880 votes in Dane County.  Per Dane County website, it should be 124,880, so Klop's lead is being overstated by 10,000 votes.  

Also, Fond du Lac county website has some results, with Prosser leading by about 6000 votes.  


So accounting for both of those things
her lead is more like 6,000 votes.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
If I were a nail biter. . .


[ Parent ]
Ok, 4,000 according to AP
also, Milwaukee is down to 57-43 Klop! wtf Milwaukee? I guess if she loses, she'll be "The Judge That Milwaukee Defeated."

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
According to TMJ4
Her lead is 5,000 now.  

Male, VA-08

[ Parent ]
Looks like they just fixed it
Her lead is now at 12k

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05

[ Parent ]
Per the AP, I should say n/t


24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05

[ Parent ]
AP made that adjustment just now


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
AP
AP corrected it and Klop still up 12k

[ Parent ]
So 6,000+ for Prosser


[ Parent ]
AP now has a 12,000 vote lead
What happened?

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


overcounted Dane Co


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
They fixed the typo I noted above
that overstated Kloppenburg's lead.

[ Parent ]
J-S gives Klop only a 5k edge


24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05

[ Parent ]
I've been following Milw J-S totals and they're way ahead of AP......
Now they show 88% reporting and Klop's lead down to about 5K.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

And just as I say that, AP surges ahead! Now showing Klop up 4K. (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
AP has 89% reporting, Klop leading by 4k-ish


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Fond du Lac is completely in
Went from 0/77 to 77/77. Klop up by 4k overall now per AP.

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05

Fond du Lac and Grant all in... only Waupaca big red and unheard from (maybe 3k votes to prossner)


The question is how many votes remain in the MKE suburbs.


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Ugh
This is playing out just how I thought it would. All comes down to Dane, Milwaukee, Ozaukee, Washington, and Waukesha counties.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Ironically
the Fox Valley is actually swinging to Prosser if you compare to 2004.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


He's from there
so that's helping him a lot.

[ Parent ]
Good point
where's the Klopper from?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Appleton n/t


Male, VA-08

[ Parent ]
Oh
in that case it doesn't matter since they're both from the same area.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
A bit of Waukesha came in
Klop getting hammered.  Supposedly only 125 out of 198 precincts in, with the vote totals 78K to 28K, for a net +50K votes for Prosser.  If the trend is uniform, Prosser could net another 30K or more votes in Waukesha alone.

At least Fon Du Lac is entirely in, 61-39% for Prosser.  Not too bad for us.


how does Trempealeau lean?
0 of 26 precincts reporting, per ap

It's good news for us
57-42 Kerry. Not that big though.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
all in now, never mind n/t


[ Parent ]
I'd say blue.
Barrett narrowly beat Walker there.  

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
Sigh...
This is why I shouldn't follow minute-by-minute.

I hope
 Those last 29 precincts in Milwaukee are from the city. Anyway, I was feeling so optimistic and then the margin fell again. Waukesha reported again, now giving a 50,000 vote lead to Pressor. All we really have left besides the Milwaukee metropolition area +Dane County to watch is Eau Clarie County with 41 precincts still unreported. Klo could get a few thousand extra votes out of there.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  


Dammit, this is going to be close.


24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05

[ Parent ]
Klop is ahead by 1,500 in Eau Claire with 1/3 in
so she could still get another 2-3k I'm guessing?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
AP might have error in Fond du Lac (unfortunately)
It says the county is all in, whereas the county website has results only from ~50/77 precincts (same vote numbers otherwise)

Looks like you're right
Vote total is what AP has but still outstanding wards to report. Ugh.

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05

[ Parent ]
Probably not, actually
Per poster
"11:07pm: Before Professor Jeff gets into precincting procedures, it could be relevant that Wisconsin draws election precincts (which it refers to as "wards"), and that many of these precincts left could be empty.  I'll also note that very few MKE precincts are empty...and that the empty ones Milwaukee precincts are actually part of Waukesha (2) and Ozaukee (1). "

Looks like those were just the empty ones (there were a few with only 10 voters or so too.)


[ Parent ]
I'm worried the same could be said for Dane. n/t


24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05

[ Parent ]
Never mind
It's probably just that the other precincts are the 'empty' ones.

[ Parent ]
J-S has Klop up 2k
With 90% in.

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05

AP also has 90% in
and up 4k. Wonder where that 2k went?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Here is the scoop
From the J-S. Just remember that Kloppenburg can probably get another 15-19k out of Madison.

Supreme Court REPORTING 90%
 Joanne Kloppenburg 677,141
50%
 David Prosser (inc) 673,670
50%  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  


Milwaukee down to 56-44 Klop.
what is their problem? Really guys?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


Empty districts!
Washington county went from 25% in to 50% in, with no vote change.

Kloppenburg down to 56% in Milwaukee County
Not much left there though.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

That's Truly Abysmal....
Tells me the inner-city Milwaukee vote lagged big time behind the GOP suburbs.  It's a miracle we're still in this with only a 56-44 advantage in Milwaukee County.

[ Parent ]
Indeed
If you just showed me Milwaukee, I would have told you we got stomped.  

[ Parent ]
Milwaukee half of 2004 = 240k votes
Currently showing 213k, with 15 outstanding precincts.

They have to be inner city... or, a turnout fail of epic proportions.


[ Parent ]
That's actually pretty good turnout


[ Parent ]
Here's a question
Are those precincts left in Dane Co. "empty"?

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05

Hopefully not
 So far, no empty precincts there seems to have reported.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  


[ Parent ]
Most unreported precincts in Dane are empty
Only about 5 left with any significant population.  

[ Parent ]
Population 500,000
showing 170,000 votes; subtracting those under 18, there could still be tens of thousands left to report.

Similarly, in Waukesha County, there are about 400,000 people, subtracting a quarter under 18, about 100,000 votes counted, could be more left.

All depends on if people turned out or not; still pretty good turnout for a judicial election in April, all things considered.

25, Male, CT-01 (home), Perth-Wellington riding (sometimes)


[ Parent ]
What about Marathon?
If the outstanding precincts are in Wausau, that should help...not on the same level as Waukesha, but add that to what remains in Madison and Milwaukee and it might move.  Earlier in the night, Marathon was heavy, heavy Prosser, but maybe that was the rural area of the county?

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

Marathon is resting at 54-46 Prosser
and it was 53-45 Bush so I'd be surprised if it changed much.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Milwaukee turnout
Taking a quick glance at the numbers minority/city turnout in Milwaukee looks like it was very weak, and nothing compared to the amazing turnout in Madison.

If they had turned out this wouldn't have been a race at all.  


We won't have that problem in November 2012. :-D (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
True
But our base's tendency to only come out full force in presidential elections is annoying as hell.  

[ Parent ]
Make voting mandatory
I'm only half joking  

[ Parent ]
Vegas shot up to 76% reporting
Chris G is 34 votes ahead of Larry Brown in their epic battle for 2nd place.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


if Klop loses, blame Milwaukee County
Kerry got a 117,000-vote margin out of there in 2004. Klop should have been able to get 60,000 votes out of there, but she's only winning by 27,000.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


If the numbers on the suburbs are correct now
Prosser is going to be ahead at the end by anywhere from 20K to 40K votes.

We're just not doing well enough in Milwaukee, and there's not enough of Dane outstanding.  

Washington is half in, 15K net lead for Prosser, so expect another net 15K.
Waukesha is like 60% in, 50K net lead for Prosser, so expect maybe another net 30K.

Extrapolate it out and that's a big chunk of net votes for Prosser still outstanding.

Dane might give us another net 15K, maybe another net 3K from Eau Claire.  Don't see many other big ones.

Waupaca is entirely outstanding and Prosser might net a few K votes there too.


More Waukesha results - Prosser +2873 not yet in AP


This will just about tie the race


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Klop's lead down to about 3k


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


Wonder why there is a discrepancy between the J-S and AP numbers at this moment
J-S:

Joanne Kloppenburg 677,141 50%
David Prosser (inc) 673,670 50%

AP:

David Prosser (inc) 50% 674,009
Joanne Kloppenburg 50% 677,371

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05


I mean, I know they can be different
It's just they are almost identical but slightly different.

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05

[ Parent ]
Yeah, looks like we might be done here
Milwaukee County just didn't come in strong enough for Kloppenburg. Damn shame, really.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

From Wakesha Co Website
http://www.waukeshacounty.gov/...

Looks like final results


Not necessarily final
It's been changing all evening as it updates.

[ Parent ]
Prosser picks up ~2000
AP doesn't have that yet but based on the current numbers, tack on about a net gain of 2k.

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05

[ Parent ]
Two-Thirds of Eau Claire County Left....
....that's about all that's left that passes as good news.

80% in LV
Chris G still ahead of Larry Brown by 30 votes.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


Waushura
Goes all in, 26 precincts worth. Prosser gets 60%, which seems like an underperformance. Kloppenburg is clinging to a 2k vote lead.

it was the other north-central W one, Waupaca
and it went for Bush 59-40 so not really an underperformance.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Waupaca just came in and
pulled down Klop's lead to 1,500. Nailbiter indeed!

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


Does Milwaukee support the union law?
I'm not saying all of Milwaukee, obviously, but this must not have been a very pressing issue for a lot of the voters.

The most recent batch of MKE hurt really bad
Assuming the MKE burb counties have been counted correctly it looks very hard to envision anything but a Prosser victory

Waupaca now all in
Kloppenburg still leading by 2,000 votes or so.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

And now Justice Prosser is just barely ahead...
Less than 500 votes.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Waupaca dumped everything, 100% in
a net 2.3K votes for Prosser, could have been worse.

Really just down to Waukesha, Washington, and whatever's left in Dane.


Alot of Eau Claire County Left.....
We should net at least 2,000 more out of there I would think.

[ Parent ]
Prosser pulls ahead with 92% in
sigh. I might have to hate Wisconsin soon.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


I'm thinking a recount for sure at this point n/t


24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05

[ Parent ]
It was Milwaukee that did it
Ugh.

Very close now
Prosser ahead by a few hundred.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

Washington all in on county site
30788-9903 Prosser: So another +6015 for him and that's it for Washington.

Good news for us, really - quite less than expected.  


Waukesha county website now saying they're 100% done
Same numbers as before and on AP. I think we're going to win this one.

[ Parent ]
I hope so!


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Care to expand on this?
What's left?

[ Parent ]
do you have the site?


[ Parent ]
http://www.waukeshacounty.gov/defaultwc.aspx?id=38567
"**Votes Complete* 42% Turnout Countywide"

PDF has same #s as AP

As for Washington, see http://www.co.washington.wi.us...


[ Parent ]
That's encouraging
Here's hoping.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

[ Parent ]
Votes left:
Pretty much Dane is the only thing left that favors one side strongly and has quite a few precincts left. After the dust settles, I'm estimating that it'll be overall +7000-10,000 Prosser outside of the 40 precincts left in Dane, Madison should be enough to overwhelm that.

[ Parent ]
THEY WERE MOSTLY EMPTY PRECINCTS
To quote jeffmd

FUCK

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05


[ Parent ]
seems odd
with them showing 19/38 precincts, there's a combined 28K votes.  Yet with all reporting, it's only 41K combined?

Still, if those are the final numbers that's good, hopefully Waukesha is similarly closer to finishing than it appears, otherwise Prosser is going to net another 30K votes there alone.


[ Parent ]
Isn't this where someone usually says
there are still 100,000 mail in ballots to be counted over the next two weeks...

Yea, we won't know the results tonight
The absentee ballots are going to decide this.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


[ Parent ]
If you could "like" comments on this site, that'd get one from me (nt)


25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

[ Parent ]
Absentees
What's the likely situation with absentees? I don't know Wisconsin politics... How many are there likely to be, and which way will they break?

17, male, (left of) Dem, OH-9

[ Parent ]
is there anything left in dane?
what about eau claire?

dane co
5 precincts left in dane

[ Parent ]
AP has 207 of 248 precincts reporting from
Dane, so there is a good chunk left.

Eu Claire is only a third counted.


[ Parent ]
They were empty


26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent

[ Parent ]
Rotten boroughs


30, male, Democratic, CO-01

[ Parent ]
Rotten boroughs


30, male, Democratic, CO-01

[ Parent ]
Lot's of empty precincts


"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

[ Parent ]
A fair amount of Eau Claire probably 2k net or so


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
msj
prosser up by 6 with 94% reporting

TMJ now has a big Prosser lead


I just wanna thank y'all
For giving me something to read on the last Chinatown bus out of New York City on a Tuesday night.  They never turn their lights on.

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

Sigh
Prosser up 6k with 94% in on J-S site.  

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05

Racine, wtf
100k votes in 2004 (52/48 Bush)

Ap showing only 36k, with 10 precincts left, and 54/46 Prossner

Like Kenosha and Milwaukee this is underperformance, but also could be the 10 precincts are from the city.


Eau Claire
County Clerk website says counting will be late; apparently they ran out of ballots and are hand counting. Could be a decent chunk of votes here for the big Klopowski

25, Male, CT-01 (home), Perth-Wellington riding (sometimes)

Dane looks like its done. Washington about to add 6,000 for Prosser
Looks like hope has run out

Washington Dropped, Dane's Almost All In....
Prosser up by 6,000.  Almost impossible to imagine a comeback now unless the remaining precincts in Milwaukee County are all the 98% Democratic inner-city precincts and they had high turnout.

Hope springs eternal. . .


[ Parent ]
Well
Basically everything in except Eu Claire (expect another 2-3K net votes for Klop) and Waukesha (expect another 20-30K net votes for Prosser if the precincts remaining are full, possibly 10-20K if they just disappear like the remainder in Dane did).

Either way, we're going to be down between 15-30K votes by the end of today.


well, not quite
Waukesha is done according to the County site...

[ Parent ]
Really?
Waukesha is done?  I'm seeing 130 out of 198 precincts on AP, (raw vote: 81K to 29K)

[ Parent ]
YES
AP is misreporting precinct #s.

[ Parent ]
AP just updated
Waukesha goes from 130/198 straight to 198/198...no change in vote totals!

What we're looking at now is basically the final results...we'll nab another 1K in Eu Claire maybe, Prosser might get another 2K in Ouzakee (but maybe that county is already done as well, despite it appearing only 40/48 precincts counted).


[ Parent ]
If the last Dane precincts aren't empty
we could get another 1K or so there.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Waukesha is done
Their final tally was the same as AP has if I'm not mistaken from conversation earlier.

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05

[ Parent ]
Frack indeed
Next time I should make sure that there aren't mysterious "empty precincts" in play before making election predictions.

25, Democrat, male, Currently living and voting in PA-2, originally form OK-1

Absentees won't be counted tonight
To the recount, absentees and the inevitable court challenge!

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


Well
Fuck.

I really really really really hate Wisconsin right now. A special shout-out to Milwaukee and its suburbs for essentially single-handedly re-electing someone who is grossly unqualified to be a judge. I think from now on I'm going to be buddies with the Koch brothers so I can go around calling people bitches and not having to face any consequences.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


There's going to be
close to 1.5 million ballots by the end of this, and the final margin will be quite close.  Not even close to being over.

Still, the numbers in Milwaukee and the suburbs were ridiculous.


[ Parent ]
Washington County went from 70-29 in 2004 to 76-24.
Like seriously though, what is wrong with these people?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
prosser lead down
down to 2000

One Dane precinct was added
Perhaps the other four remaining will actually have significant totals as well.

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05

[ Parent ]
This race is going to a recount
I'm sure of it.

[ Parent ]
Well, we came close.


20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

Wonder if this race will end up..
in the Wisconsin supreme court...

Presumably
Prosser would recuse himself. . .

[ Parent ]
Psshh
Given his antics, I wouldn't be surprised if he tried to vote for himself.

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05

[ Parent ]
3-3 vote on the supreme court??
This could get crazy!! Make Bush v. Gore look regular.

[ Parent ]
He'd have to
The race involves him directly.

[ Parent ]
Yeah, I thought so
Just wanted to make a joke about that bastard.

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05

[ Parent ]
If I'm a Republican
If I were a Repulican strategist nationally, I would move to have pretty much every election possible to off-year.  

I mean many of the statewide/local (non-federal) races already are, but seriously, they should just move to switch every election ever to off-year.  They have so many majorities in many states at the moment and this trend keeps repeating and there just doesn't seem to be a solution.


Dammit
n/t

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

under 2,000
and the rest of Milwaukee still out, so maybe a chance?

In less disgusting news
LV is finished reporting and Chris G finished ahead of Larry Brown by 15 votes. If that holds, does that mean Chris G and Carolyn G go to a runoff of the G-girls?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


Were the polls wrong?
Is there not that much anger about Walker and his power grabs or is it just that the anger is all outside of Milwaukee? Or are people angry but still support Prosser?

I just hope this doesn't hurt recall efforts.


What polls?
There wasn't a single public poll of this race.  

[ Parent ]
From what I heard in the media
Both candidates had their internals showing it dead even. So evidently they were pretty right.

Male, VA-08

[ Parent ]
Polls showing big objections to Walker's plan
I would have thought Milwaukee would object yet it seems like many of the areas which should have voiced their disapproval didn't show up.

[ Parent ]
Depends
If Prosser's strength is coming from the hard-core red areas of the state, and Kloppenburg over-performed in some of the swingy areas, then it shouldn't prove to be a difference in how the recalls will go.  The best thing to do is compare Supreme Court numbers in the likely recall districts with prior Governor & Presidential numbers.

[ Parent ]
Once again, not many people pay attention to court races
Save for Republicans, who vote for most every office that comes up for election.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

Also
 A few rural counties such as Sauk, Dunn and Portage which all voted for JoeKlo but by small margins have not reported yet. Anyway, this is where we wait for the absentees to be counted. From what I heard, Dane County had a good number of absentees.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  


Marathon county?
Any news on that? Lots of precincts not counted on AP website. Is that correct?

I just looked at their precinct-by-precinct numbers
Here: http://www.co.marathon.wi.us/e...

Looks like there are indeed 32 left.

However, half of those look to have 10 or less registered voters, so tough to say how much Prosser will benefit.

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05


[ Parent ]
Make that more than half
And a lot of them are empties. So Prosser won't be getting too much more out of Marathon.

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05

[ Parent ]
I counted about 4500 registered voters left
turnout about 25%, so about 1200 votes cast

[ Parent ]
Those are Wausau precincts not reporting!
Klop is winning the Wausau precincts that have reported.

So Marathon looks like it is good news.


[ Parent ]
New analysis:
Think we could still pull this out.

Prosser up 2000 now, and Waukashe is 100% in according to website (no vote difference.) Question is how much left in Ouzakee, and the county results have exactly 3 more votes than AP (2-1 Prosser!) If it's empty or very little, we probably win with what's left in Dane/Milwaukee/Eu Claire/etc.


I think you might be right.
Most of the outstanding precincts are in good counties or ones that went for Prosser by less than 60%. The big counties taht went over 60% for Prosser show outstanding precincts on the AP site but the county website says they're done.

21, Progressive Democrat, MN-08 (home), MN-05 (college)

[ Parent ]
LV mayor
one of the candidates, Anthony Wernicke, listed his nickname on the ballot as "little guy." I think he should go hook up with Washington state's Mikethemover and that other guy.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


Ahh, yes
It's goodspaceguy, right?

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

[ Parent ]
Yeah, that one!
I got him and Mike confused and smushed poor Mike's name into one word. Oops.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Ahh, yes
It's goodspaceguy, right?

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

[ Parent ]
Also
 One guy for a Henderson citywide office called himself 'toughguy' and another one called himself 'protect it.'  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  


[ Parent ]
AP now correctly has Waukesha 100% in (no vote diff)
Cautiously optimistic. Only question left is Ozaukee.

You know, with Eau Claire County...
And outstanding precincts in Milwaukee, Kloppenburg might eke this one out.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

With Waukesha All In....
Suddenly we could be in the game again.  Depends a lot on where the vote is left in Racine County and Milwaukee County.  Both are counties with some deep blue and some deep red territory.  Beyond that, we could piecemeal a small lead left with the remaining precincts in places like Ashland County and Crawford County, which lean Dem.  But we still have all those outstanding precincts in Marathon County as well.  It remains a crap shoot even now.

Ashland County is really solid for Kloppenburg
Then again, we have an unknown number of "empty precincts" too. It's a total crap shoot.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
AP now shows Waukesha as 100% in.
No vote changes I believe.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


This is going to be a Joe Walsh/Melissa Bean margin close match!
Pretty darn close!

I miss SSP. Republican, IL-10

Most of the Outstanding Counties Are Blue Counties.....
....but it's unclear if the remaining precincts are rural townships with 100 people in the case of places like Crawford and Portage Counties....or if they're crimson red suburbs in Milwaukee and Racine Counties.

race depends on if...
Ozaukee is still out, and how many more votes to count in Marathon..

Have all the urban parts of Racine reported?

How many more stupid empty precincts are there left in Democratic strongholds, if any?


Ozaukee vs the rest of the state
As noted above, Portage and other Klopp-friendly counties have outstanding precints in addition to Milwaukee and Dane.  Ozaukee's 8 precincts would be heavy for prossner... and ten from racine could go either way.

Still a lot of race here... UNLESS those dane distrcits are slow because of slow counting hand ballots, in which case this will be Klopp by a significant amount, haven't heard that tho.


Marathon County
Looks from a cursory search of county data that most/all of unreported precincts are in Wausau, where Kloppenburg is up (something like 55-45 roughly overall - their precinct data is very messy so hard to tell.) Good news!

Oh thank God
I literally just heaved a huge sigh of relief and thumped my chest. Feel very good about that.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Thanks For the Heads Up....More Good News.....
This turned out to be one exciting night.  Reminds me a little of the 2002 Tim Johnson-John Thune Senate races with its endless twists and turns right down to the very last precinct to report.

[ Parent ]
I am
 Feeling Florida now with the Democratic areas reporting at the last minute and all those projections going for Gore, then Bush, then Gore and so on. Also, I will admit the real reason is that Milwaukee Dane sounds just like Miami Dade (I think I already mentioned this though.)  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  


[ Parent ]
I am
 Feeling Florida now with the Democratic areas reporting at the last minute and all those projections going for Gore, then Bush, then Gore and so on. Also, I will admit the real reason is that Milwaukee Dane sounds just like Miami Dade (I think I already mentioned this though.)  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  


[ Parent ]
Oh thank God
I literally just heaved a huge sigh of relief and thumped my chest. Feel very good about that.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
More details
About 4900 registered voters in unreported precincts (basically, all in Wausau)

Say 40% turnout, and Kloppenburg wins them 55-45 (Wausau kind of polarized, but that's my estimate for the average in the city.) Then, about 200-300 vote margin for her... huh, thought it would be more.


[ Parent ]
alot of the precincts she is winning there are like 25% turnout
thats just from scanning their messy website

[ Parent ]
2 of the 4 outstanding Dane precincts report
His lead is under 1,500 so when Eau Claire reports it might be tied.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


Diffence between AP and Dane County Websites
Klop is a net 2,760 better on the Dane County Website than the AP Website

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

How stressed must the candidates be right now!
They must no longer have finger nails.

Also
 How many absentee ballots are still out there, if any?  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  


Klop up on AP
Milwaukee came in a bit more and is now 57-43% for Klop

Is the AP miscounting
or is JK back in the lead?

jeez
AP does it again, updated Waukesha straight from 130/198 to 198/198, no change in vote totals.  That right there eliminates a net 30K votes for Prosser I was predicting based on the AP numbers.  We're basically looking at the final numbers, there might be 1K here, 2K there, but there's a bit for both sides and it will probably more or less cancel out.  The final result will probably be within a 5K margin, out of over 1.4 million votes cast.

Counties to watch:

Eau Claire (could be another 1-2K votes for Klop)
Ashland (could be another 500 for Klop)
Marathon (possibly another few hundred for Prosser)
Ozaukee (might be 1-2K votes for Prosser)
Portage (possibly a few hundred for Klop)
Racine (maybe 500 for Prosser)

Dane and Milwaukee have barely any precincts left (which may be emptee) but if they do report, the sheer size of those two counties may alter the final results by a few hundred more votes.

With the suburbs just drying up like that, we are definitely headed for an absurdly close election with 1.4 million votes cast.


Check again for Marathon
The county's definitely Prosser country, but we know that the leftovers, however many there are, are almost entirely in Democratic-leaning Wausau.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

[ Parent ]
@daveweigel asks a pertinent question
Anyone know how Dems won Milwaukee County Exec by much larger margin than Klopp won it?

You guys have any idea?

21, Dem, NY-15 (formerly NJ-05)


nt
one race is non partisan one is democratic/republican listed? That could have had an affect.  

[ Parent ]
Kloppenburg now leading by 1,600 votes or so
Looking good...waiting on Racine and Ozaukee counties (someone suggested the latter's outstanding precincts may be empty earlier).

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

Get out the popcorn, folks!
No matter what today, we'll probably have a nice long recount and court battle over "voter fraud," voter intent, contested ballots, lizard people and all that jazz.

But the fun really comes with the fact that Walker is sure to make an ass out of himself during the process, and that the GOPers running for President will have to kiss his ring in the process!

25, Male, CT-01 (home), Perth-Wellington riding (sometimes)


Its over
prosser pulled it off. Maybe Wisconsin is a swing state after all

TX-13,22,Dem

Sweet.....
Just one precinct from Milwaukee County reports and puts Klopp back in the lead.  Let's hope the rest of Milwaukee County's precincts are in the same neighborhood as that one.

Klop might lose 3,000 more votes
in Racine...

County site has it 28,204 - 22,518 for Prosser


Ouzakee County details
Website has ~7000 more votes, 5000-2000 Prosser

Exact numbers: Prosser+3545 not yet on AP. Ouch. Hopefully that's it for the county but it doesn't seem done yet.

This'll be a nailbiter.


J-S gives Prosser a 4,700 vote lead with 97% reporting n/t


24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05

Giroux tweet on Dane
Dane Co election site says all wards have reported, K 133,513 P 48,627

Based on what AP has right now, Klop nets 2k.

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05


[ Parent ]
Looks like those last 2 Dane precincts aren't empty.
We're up to 246/248 and votes were added. I would guess that all empty precincts in a given county are added at the same time.

21, Progressive Democrat, MN-08 (home), MN-05 (college)

2 precincts came in
one from Milwaukee (back up to 57-43 for Klop), one from somewhere else. She's back in the lead narrowly!

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


Damn that 11:56 update b/c AP has Klop up 1600 now, but w/that Racine error!......
Still doable but won't be decided for days or even weeks.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

Yup,
Racine all in now, extends Prosser lead.

Ozaukee also all in with no vote change.

Mostly Democratic precincts out at first glance.


Racine and Ozaukee now all in per AP
It comes down to what's left in Milwaukee, Eau Claire, and two outstanding precincts in Dane, and a smattering of random precincts across the state.

Wow.

28, Male, MI-09 (home), MD-07 (school)


Racine and Ozuakee counties just dumped in
Justice Prosser leads by just under 5,000 votes. Precincts left should only be in blue areas, if that report on Marathon County is correct.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

If I saw correctly
1 Dane precinct reporting cut Prosser's 5k to that just-over-2k.  Hopefully the other one is similar.

Also, come on Eau Claire!

28, Male, MI-09 (home), MD-07 (school)


[ Parent ]
Damn, we got bonked hard in Racine
56-44 compared to 52-47 for Bush. But now that Racine and Ozaukee are done, we have to hope that Dane and Milwaukee have more Dem votes than we think. there's also Eau Claire and Ashland left (a bit).

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


This one
 Seriously will come down to a few hundred votes, then the absentees will come and hopefully shift things in our favor. Right now, P is leading by 4700 but we still have 12 precincts in Milwaukee and a few precincts from Democratic leaning rural counties.

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  


Racine and Ozaukee Now Out of the Way Completely.....
That should leave nothing but Klopp-friendly areas left.  But are there enough votes left to pick up 5,000?  Seems like a stretch, but possible if all of Wausau is left out there.

1 more Dane county precinct to report...


Racine and Ozaukee Now Out of the Way Completely.....
That should leave nothing but Klopp-friendly areas left.  But are there enough votes left to pick up 5,000?  Seems like a stretch, but possible if all of Wausau is left out there.

Cautiously optimistic again.
Prosser+2000 right now, but everything major left is pro-Klopp. All Pross strongholds are in. #s to follow

Actually, barring something very weird, think Klopp will win now.
Hard to say for sure yet. Who knows which precincts are empty.

[ Parent ]
1 more Dane county precinct to report...


1 more Dane county precinct to report...


12 more Milwaukee precincts to report


for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  


[ Parent ]
Racine and Ozaukee Now Out of the Way Completely.....
That should leave nothing but Klopp-friendly areas left.  But are there enough votes left to pick up 5,000?  Seems like a stretch, but possible if all of Wausau is left out there.

Klopp wins
101 precincts, with Marathon being substantially Wausau and one Dane and several Milwaukee precincts... and down by 2400 now.

Hard to see Prossner winning unless Milwaukee are all empty.


Let's Not Get Ahead Of Ourselves....
There are a lot of very Republican precincts in Milwaukee County.  We shouldn't assume all of the remaining Milwaukee precincts will go our way.  Based on the last couple we've seen it's probable but no sure thing.

[ Parent ]
With another Dane County precinct in, Justice Prosser's lead shrinks...
To under 2,500. Eau Claire, Marathon, and Milwaukee counties still have a significant number of precincts outstanding.

Holding my breath now.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native


I think I found an appropriate theme song
for this race:

There occasionally races that are so memorable they require a soundtrack.


2,000 votes behind, almost everything left should go for Klop
we need those remaining Milwaukee precincts to be big, not empty, and Democratic. Also we can still count (barring empty precincts) on Sauk, Ashland, Eau Claire, and that last Dane precinct.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


Seriously underperformed in whole Milwaukee area
Kloppenburg did really bad in the whole Milwaukee area and surrounding counties...includig Racine.  I suppose this may portent well for Robert Darling in her effort to stave off a recall...

Meanwhile, she dominated in Dane County and in the rural West and especially the iron range.  I hope that a challenger to Sean Duffy steps up and has similar success.


Klop overperformed in St. Croix
54-45 Bush, 51-49 Prosser. Bad news for Sheila Harsdorf?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Basically...
An April judicial election with an incumbent ended up tied. But if she dominated in Madison and the Iron Range, well, it looks like a part of the base woke up. Give those occasional base Dem voters a real election with a D next to the candidate, and all bets are off.

25, Male, CT-01 (home), Perth-Wellington riding (sometimes)

[ Parent ]
Pretty Close to the 2000-2004 Presidential Map.....
....except for Democratic overperformance in the St. Croix County area and underperformance in the Milwaukee area.  The other disappointing place for me is the 8th district.  They went strong for Obama and it seemed fertile ground for a Democratic comeback in the Walker era.  Yet just about every place in northeastern Wisconsin continued to toe the GOP line in 2004/2010 numbers.

[ Parent ]
From Think Progress on Twitter
thinkprogress ThinkProgress
RT @MacIverWisc: Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett just said on TV that in Milw. they have just begun to count the 8,000 absentee ballots...


"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

Presumably everyone else has absentee ballots too
So this means . . . not much.  

[ Parent ]
Milwaukee Absentee
Apparently there are about 8,000 absentee ballots to be counted in Milwaukee. now I do not know if that is milwaukee county or milwaukee city (I believe city but can confirm later), but promising nonetheless

So
Regardless of how this ends up this was one of the most insane elections I've ever seen unfold. Definitely a rollercoaster ride to say the least.

Also, HUGE ups to Madison/Dane County. They were incredible and are the only reason we still have a shot. If only Milwaukee had contributed a little bit more.  


Calumet and Adams now done
Dunn (blue) now down 2 precincts out from 6.  Results mainly canceled each other


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