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SSP Daily Digest: 4/4

by: DavidNYC

Mon Apr 04, 2011 at 8:13 AM EDT


Senate:

• CT-Sen: Former SoS Susan Bysiewicz said that she raised over half a mil in Q1. She also continued a theme of attacking Chris Murphy as some kind of skeezy Washington insider, saying "I'm sure the corporate PACs and DC lobbyists are lining up to support other candidates." Murphy is the only other announced candidate.

• FL-Sen: Adam Smith of the St. Petersburg Times tweeted last Wednesday he expects George LeMieux (R) to announce "next week"... which means this week.

• IN-Sen: Rep. Dan Burton, one of the most disliked Republicans in the state of Indiana, channels his inner Tobias Fünke (the man inside him?) and says, "I'm supporting Dick - there's two Dicks in the race." That'd be Richard "Dick" Lugar and Richard "Dick" Mourdock. Oh Burton, you blowhard!

• KY-Sen: I can't really believe Rand Paul is serious about a presidential bid, but then again, I thought the same thing about Michele Bachmann and was clearly wrong about that. Still, I'm mostly amused by the fact that he met with Iowa Republicans (including Gov. Terry Branstad) in Des Moines this past weekend. Rand might be trying to set himself up for a run in 2016... or he could also be doing a good job of inviting a primary challenge if he seeks re-election.

• MA-Sen: Teabaggers being pissed at Scott Brown are nothing new - though I do find their naivety endearing. (What did they think they were going to get?) What's sad is that one of their self-anointed leaders, some guy named Judson Phillips, can only muster up this in response to Brown's latest outrage (calling to reduce budget cuts): "Perhaps the Massachusetts Tea Party will step up with someone to challenge him in 2012." A resounding call to arms this ain't.

• ME-Sen: Freshman Sen. Pat Toomey says he won't endorse Olympia Snowe in her bid for re-election. Toomey, don't forget, has some residual teabagger cred, given that he was president of the Club for Growth.

• MO-Sen: Citizens United (yes, that Citizens United) just gave GOP Rep. Todd Akin $10K in the hopes of luring him into the Senate race. I was wrong about Trent Franks, but I really do feel like Akin will get in here.

• MT-Sen: Republicans think they get lots of mileage out of attacking "welfare," but Denny Rehberg took this trope several steps further, declaring that Pell Grants are "turning out to be the welfare of the 21st century."

• NV-Sen: Rep. Shelley Berkley says she's heartened by the internal poll numbers she put out last week (42-38 over Republican Dean Heller), she still hasn't made up her mind, though now says she'll decide "fairly soon," whatever that means.

• NY-Sen: Kirsten Gillibrand set a personal record with her 1Q fundraising, taking in over $3 million.

Gubernatorial:

• KY-Gov: Despite opposing the expansion of gambling in the state - a very big and very contentious issue - State Senate President (and GOP gubernatorial nominee) David Williams lost over $36,000 in casinos from 1999 to 2002, according to court documents related to his divorce.

• MO-Gov: Did GOP Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder just neutralize the whole "Air Claire" business? It turns out that Kinder, widely expected to run for governor, has spent an average of two months a year staying at St. Louis luxury hotels, all at taxpayer expense, including trips for society balls and baseball games.. You really need to read the whole piece to get the full flavor of Kinder's abuse of his office. Kinder also told a reporter for the St. Louis Post-Dispatch "I'm not talking to you," then hung up the phone. This story's going to get worse, not better.

• UT-Gov, UT-Sen: As we've noted previously, the teabaggers are gunning for Gov. Gary Herbert, thanks to his support for immigration bills that are insufficiently punitive, in their view. Now the name of another potential primary challenger has surfaced: state Rep. Stephen Sandstrom. The linked article also says that David Kirkham, a key teabagger who helped oust Bob Bennett last year, is suggesting that Herbert, rather than Orrin Hatch, may be his compatriots' number one target this cycle. Hatch previously refused to take a position on his home state's legislation, but let's see if he turns on Herbert in the hopes of re-directing the teabaggers.

• WV-Gov: Julie Sobel at the Hotline has a complete wrapup of fundraising numbers for all the major candidates, both Dem and Republican, in the WV gubernatorial race.

Other Races:

• Wisconsin Sup. Ct.: On Twitter, when Sarah Palin announced she was backing David Prosser, I called it the kiss of death. J. Pilmanis said no, she kissed a corpse. We'll find out for sure tomorrow! Anyhow, the ad wars have, of course, gone full-tilt in the final days of the campaign. Here's a roundup of some that we've seen:

DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 4/4
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SSP Daily Digest: 4/4 | 123 comments
Surprise, Surprise!
I wonder who else won't endorser Snowe.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
Well I was going to wait
But apparently it leaked too soon.  I'm announcing I will not be endorsing Snowe in 2012.
[ Parent ]
Collins?
Isn't she supposed to be the more conservative of the two? I have a hard time imagining that happening, but man, if it did, that'd be the final nail in the coffin.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
If anything, I think Collins is less conservative
At least stylistically, Collins strikes me as more Lieberman and Snowe as more Voinovich. They're both right around the 60-yard line, but Snowe's been creeping further right in the wake of a likely 2012 primary challenge (note her behavior during the DADT repeal debate).

I fully anticipate Collins to endorse Snowe. The former is hardly a Tea Party type.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
I could be wrong
about her being the more conservative of the two. I think I remember reading it somewhere, but I'll trust your take.

The thing is, wouldn't Collins be up for a challenge herself in 2014? And while there's nothing that I know about her to suggest that she'd stab Snowe in the back, I probably wouldn't go broke underestimating the cowardice of politicians.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
I was under the impression
Collins resented Snowe for the attention she received in the past. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
.
No. Collins has a longstanding jealousy/resentment of Snowe's surperior popularity.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.
[ Parent ]
Collins is a wee bit more conservative
I think the prevailing wisdom is that Collins is marginally more conservative than Snowe. Tea-party types wouldn't see any appreciable difference (RINOs!) but I think most Mainers would consider that to be the case. That said, I'm not a Mainer, so I stand ready to be corrected.

However, I think Collins' conservatism has more to do with her foreign policy hawkishness and her general style than substantial policy differences with Snowe.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
That's about correct, I'd say
The Tea Partiers won't see a difference, though. Also crucially, Mainers don't seem to either. The DSCC passed on Snowe in 2006, but they put money behind Allen in 2008 because conventional wisdom was that as the marginally more conservative of the two, she would be more vulnerable and a better target. Then Collins won by 23 points anyway.
[ Parent ]
They're pretty much the same
Collins has a lifetime ACU score of 50.5% conservative while Snowe has a lifetime score of 48.4% conservative. Note that in 2010 both tacked to the right significantly; they both scored 64% conservative for that year alone.  

Male, VA-08
[ Parent ]
Seems unlikely
She's marginally more conservative in some senses, but they seem to vote together more often than not and most people don't make the distinction. Though Toomey did get Collins to campaign for him last year in order to give him moderate cred in PA, so it's interesting that he's turning on her "twin".
[ Parent ]
Isn't Bysiewicz technically correct?
I mean he is an incumbent federal politician. He probably has ties to these groups good or bad. They all do.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
The point is
She's being a total douchette about it.

I do think the Senate needs people from more walks of life than Representatives, but damn if I just want to punch Bysiewicz in the face.

23, liberal democrat, SSP Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college);   DKos: HoosierD42

[ Parent ]
Let's lay off the violent imagery
There's a million ways to express displeasure with someone, but I don't think we need to use this kind of imagery (esp. when talking about women). I realize it's metaphorical, but I'd prefer we just not go there. Thanks.
[ Parent ]
*tail between legs* n/t


23, liberal democrat, SSP Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college);   DKos: HoosierD42
[ Parent ]
Rand Paul Stupidity
"Didn't seem to hurt him, did it? I think it's interesting people want to complain about it, but, you know, Lincoln was elected with two years of experience as a congressman 15 years before he ran for president."

--Sen. (oh, how it burns my ass to type that) Rand Paul

Um, what the hell?

http://politicalwire.com/archi...

IN-Sen: Why is Dan Burton so disliked? I mean, I get why Democrats would dislike him, but why Republicans?

MA-Sen: Part of me hopes someone challenges him, but at the same time, the Massachusetts Republicans that post here have me thinking it just won't work. I'd like to be proven wrong, however, because if he's defeated in a primary, Martha Coakley's old pants suit could be the Democratic candidate and would win. The chances of the Democrats holding the Senate would increase greatly.

ME-Sen: What a dick. I get why Toomey wouldn't endorse Snowe, but still, the fact that so many people are willing to turn on long-serving and respectable senators like her and Lugar is incredible. Toomey can claim that he's neither supporting nor opposing her, but it's only slightly more true than if DeMint said that. His influence isn't as great as DeMint's, but if he were interested in helping her out, he could. The fact that he isn't speaks volumes.

MT-Sen: If the Democrats can't beat this jackass in anything short of a repeat of 2010, they deserve to lose.

MO-Gov: The key to making this bad for Republicans is to act like McCaskill's troubles never happened. Don't even mention them. When Republicans bring it up, just repeat your attacks, my fellow Democrats. Start labelling Kinder as Number One Enemy of Taxpayers and force the senate candidates to choose sides.

UT-Gov: Why wouldn't they do this? Perhaps there's a point where the Republicans become so damn extreme that the Democrats have a better shot, but I am not seeing it anywhere on the horizon.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

Google "dan burton watermelon" (eom)

[ Parent ]
Oh, I know about that.
But is that really it?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Nobody likes Burton because he's a moronic, womanizing jackass who'd rather go on lobbyist-funded golfing trips than actually do his job and vote in Congress
He's a total creature of D.C. at this point, and that's made him more unpopular than ever in the so-called "Tea Party era". Besides that, I'll bet the folks in his district, even the Republicans, would like to have a Congressman that got in the news for actually doing important things, instead of only being mentioned for whatever stupid thing he's done recently, like the watermelon incident or his proposal to encase the House in bulletproof plastic.

The only reason he's still a Congressman at all is because he's so weak that every single Republican in IN-05 seems to think they can beat him, which generally results in Burton getting through his primary with like 35% of the vote.

I don't know why Indiana attracts so many assholes to its Congressional delegation. Mark Souder and John Hostettler were also pretty dickish.

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
even worse than that..
I looked up Indiana SOS and found Burton got by with a little under 29% in the primary last year.  Only 2,267 votes ahead of the nearest competitor out of almost 114,000 votes cast.  Burton drew 6 challengers, 2 of which were serious vote getters.
[ Parent ]
That's comical.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
That's what I figured.
It's a testament to the poor organization and/or stupidity of the Republicans in his district that they can't unite behind one serious candidate to knock him off. At the same time, it's kind of a knock against his district that they'd never consider a Democrat, even a fairly conservative one, over Burton. Or perhaps they've just never been offered the choice. Maybe I am over-interpreting the results of 2008, but when I see the big jumps in his district (as it currently stands, anyway) and especially Pence's district towards Obama, I have to wonder how responsive the voters would be towards an ideologically appropriate Democrat. Perhaps they are just specific ticket splitters, but considering the severe lack of resources put into these races, I don't think we can say that just yet.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
By the way anything new
on our dear Secretary of State?

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
Haven't heard anything beyond those folks bailing from his staff
And that was a couple of weeks ago.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
A+ on your Tobias reference....
I guess the Indiana GOP is low on Teamocil...

26, Liberal Democrat, gay male, CA-38
There is no "i" in Teamocil...
At least not where you'd think!
[ Parent ]
Missourri
My only concern with another MO pol being viewed as corrupt is that it sets the table for an anti-incumbent attack in many races.  

If everyone in Missouri views their elected officials as corrupt, then challengers to incumbents could benefit.  Its not hugely likely, but it'd be nice if we could simply diffuse both matters and call it even now....I'd rather not have Missourans hating on McCaskill because "all pols are corrupt".  

Fair point,
but when do people do that besides those years when there's a national wave or some sort of statewide scandal that affects most of the members of the same party?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Mike Huckabee's Destroyed Hard Drives
Just what the hell was he trying to hide? (That's a half sarcastic, half serious comment.)

http://motherjones.com/kevin-d...

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
"Air Claire"
The flipside of Kinder's mess is that if his transgressions are worse than McCaskill's, then they could be tied together and be jointly referred to as "politicians abusing power". If that happens, Kinder's actions may actually rub off on McCaskill, making her situation worse.
How would that go?
Didn't McCaskill already pay those back taxes? And would the MO GOP want to hurt its own chances at MO-Gov just to use that as an attack against McCaskill?

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
I still say it's a manufactured "scandal" that won't play with voters......
I think voters are going to shrug.  I've said that all along and stand by it, DavidNYC's initial reaction was correct.

That doesn't mean McCaskill can't lose, but if she does, it will be because of ideology, issues, and Obama (if he's underwater in MO come two Novembers from now), not even slightly because of this airplane story.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
The question is
Whom do the Jay Nixon/John McCain voters vote for if the GOP nominee is Palin/Bachmann/Gingrich?

I'd expect turnout overall in MO will be lower if this were the scenario.  I just wodner if turnout decrease more among semi-moderat Dems (possible Nixon/McCain voters) as opposed to liberal Dems (Nixon/Obama voters).

I'd tend to think it might become an election where Mccaskill would do well to be negative and drive down voter turnout outside KC.St louis as Obama will likely keep a those areas turnout decent, if not 2008 levels.

[ Parent ]
But how much lower?
I suspect that if the Republican nominee were in fact someone like Bachmann, he or she would still get above 40 percent simply because Missouri is red enough for that to happen.

I don't think McCaskill's strategy will change that much regardless of what happens. Both her and Obama will try to walk the fine line, particularly in Missouri, where they both appeal to their bases while not pissing off the center. After all, people don't have a problem splitting their tickets, and while someone like Bachmann would help McCaskill, the advantage wouldn't be that extreme. I could see a situation where Obama wins Missouri with 53 percent but McCaskill only wins with 56 percent, or something similar, which is basically close enough so that a smart campaigner could bridge the gap and defeat her. Why give this candidate an opening to do that by going negative?

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Any of those 3 as GOP nominee ensures Dem landslide, including for McCaskill......
I take it as a given that any of those 3 or several other lunatics as the GOP nominee means Obama wins an overwhelming blowout, and Republicans are punished downballot.

But I don't expect any of the bottomfeeders to be the GOP nominee.

I expect it will end up someone at least halfway presentable, either Pawlenty or Romney or Barbour or...well, I don't know who else.  And in that scenario it largely depends on how good a campaign the GOP nominee runs, because a good campaign can't be assumed, and a bad campaign still ensures an easy Obama win and a likely McCaskill win.

I do think that if Obama keeps it within a point or two in Mizzou, then Claire wins; she'll outperform Obama.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
The more I think about it,
the more I believe even someone like Pawlenty might not be able to do much of anything. Surely, he wouldn't do as badly as Bachmann, but as he tacks further right in order to win the primary, pinning his hopes in part on idiotic positions like DADT repeal, I'm not sure he'll be able to tack back to the center enough to win.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
That argument
is just too convoluted. Unless you can point to past examples of this happening.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
I'm having a harder time...
Seeing Shelley turn down a NV-Sen run now, especially with Mellman's poll results out and showing her ahead of Heller. Why pass up the opportunity of a lifetime? The DSCC may be pissed, but she can always call on Harry (Reid) to get them to back off.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
Any idea what's going on behind the scenes in Carson City?
I can't imagine Horsford, among others, would be terribly sad to see her seat open up, now that the C.W. seems to be that they'll draw a Latino-majority NV-04.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Actually, since NV-01 is already minority majority...
I've suspected that seat will be redrawn as at least a Latino plurality seat, especially if Shelley runs for Senate. Since Dina Titus really craves a return to Congress, there may be a strong push for NV-04 to be anchored in The East Side and drawn to Spring Valley and Green Valley.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
I really love that she was a poli sci prof
If 2010 hadn't been such a shit show, we would be all talking about Titus for Senate right now.  ::grumble::
[ Parent ]
Poly Sci professor, where?
Oh right, that school I'm going to right now. :-D University of North Texas

The professor I consider my mentor (and is retiring this year, sadly) was actually around when Dina taught there. He brought this up to my in 2006, saying he was rooting for her cause of her stint at the university.

Then again, Dick Armey came out of UNT's faculty as well, so, yeah . . .

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
ny-sen
Gillibrand is a fundraising machine. Anyone want to bet she ends up with a bigger warchest than Schumer in the near future. she really should be running the democratic senatorial efforts next cycle, imo.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

If she did that next cycle
she could open herself up to more donors and support if she were to run in 2016.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
Depends
She is the logical choice for 2014. Particularly if she wants to run for the top job in 2016. But the playing field looks tough so she may want to skip it for the same reason.
[ Parent ]
Unless she made a lot of Steele-style errors,
I can't think anyone would blame her if things only went so so that year. In fact, expectations might be so low that she could look successful by keeping down the margins in red states.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
That wouldn't work
unless Ds lose the Senate Majority in '12.

Otherwise, even insiders would blame the DSCC leader for losing the majority in '14. It doesn't matter that the task is nearly impossible.  

[ Parent ]
I guess so.
It depends on the year, more than anything. If it's even worse than 2010, simply limiting the losses would look like a success, but if not...


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
another case of perception vs reality

[ Parent ]
Were she to either help
keep the majority, assuming the Democrats hold it after 2012, or somehow expand it in 2014, would that help her in 2016? Keeping the majority would be impressive in itself, but if she could expand it, I could definitely see it working in her favor, despite the fact that doing so would involve the election of a Democrat in a red or deeply red state whose views might cause heartburn with some of the more liberal parts of the base.

As far as fund raising goes, I'm not particularly thrilled with the partial shift back to big money donors, but I understand the need to fight fire with fire. Still, it'd be nice if Gillibrand were to try to lead the shift in the other direction and try to rely more on small donors, like Obama did in 2008. There are limitations to this, seeing as how she's more of a New York candidate than a national candidate, but if she could win last year, she's got that seat for as long as she wants it. I imagine she could be a little bit more open to new strategies. If she were successful in doing this, she'd definitely score some points with the base.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
I might do a diary on prodigious fundraisers and their networks
Or would that be too off-topic?  For example, I read that Gillibrand makes or made aggressive use of Dartmouth alumni emails...be interestingish to see if that's reflected in her donor list.

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)
[ Parent ]
Too off-topic?
I'm now going to be annoyed with you if you don't do this diary.  :)
[ Parent ]
I just got a reply from the
Indiana State Senate Democrats on Twitter.

"Right now majority is in 9th. 4 precincts in 5th. We're working on adjustments to put all in 9th based on public input."

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

This is about the splitting of Monroe County
and how much Bloomington was split.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
Why would the Republicans leave the entirety of Monroe in the 9th?
That doesn't make any sense, but if it's true, I'm not complaining.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
This is about the Senate Democratic proposal.


19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
Gah!
I knew it was too good to be true.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
2012 Battlegrounds
This is First Read's take:

Solid Dem: DC, DE, HI, MD, MA, NY, RI, VT (67 electoral votes)
Likely Dem: CA, CT, IL, ME, WA, OR (105)
Lean Dem: MI, MN, NJ, PA (60)
Toss-up: CO, FL, IA, NV, NH, NM, NC, OH, VA, WI (115)
Lean GOP: AZ, GA, MO, MT, NE (one EV) (41)
Likely GOP: AL, AR, IN, LA, MS, NE (four EVs), ND, SC, SD, TX (97)
Solid GOP: AK, ID, KS, KY, OK, TN, UT, WV, WY (53)

I personally don't understand the distinction between "Likely" and "Solid" for a few of these states. Why is California only a "Likely Dem" state while New York is "Solid Dem"? And what about Illinois? I'd also put Indiana in the Lean GOP column, at least for now. A lot of people here say it's unlikely to go to Obama again, but until we see some polling on the state, I'm not writing it off. He won it last time, and I can't think of any sort of shift that occurred that would take it out of reach.

In particular, I'd like to note this:

A few states to keep an eye on THIS year when it comes to the Obama campaign: AZ, GA, and TX. All three are long shots, but all three showed significant population gains for minorities in the last 10 years. And the campaign is going to attempt to at least experiment with organizing in these three states to see if any of them are worth truly battling for when the calendar turns from 2011 to 2012.

I'm not sure what "attempt to at least experiment with organizing" means, if only because it sounds completely vague, but it does sound promising. It won't be easy to win a state like Texas, but Arizona and in particular Georgia seem more doable. Like I've said before, I imagine announcing they were contesting the state would in fact help with fund raising, as the millions of Democrats in those states, particularly the much smaller but influential rich donors, would be happy they weren't being left out. Plus, if the campaign continues to place a greater emphasis on mobilization and ground game efforts than it does on ads, as it has in other states, I'd feel much more confident.

I wonder when we will get a better idea of where the campaign expects to compete.

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com...

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

Yeah, these are some bizarre rankings
IN, which Obama won last time, is as Republican as California or Illinois is Democratic? Nevada and New Mexico are tossups, but PA is Lean Dem?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Oddly
I'd put money on PA voting for Obama before NV or NM, but maybe that's just me.  
[ Parent ]
Well
I'd put money on PA voting for Obama anyway, but I think NV and NM will get there first. PA's Democratic lean has been consistent (I believe it voted +3 Kerry and +2 Obama compared to the nation), while NV and NM have been zooming left, and Obama won them both by a larger margin than he won PA.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Why?

[ Parent ]
That's the same baffling question
I had. Two states where he won more than 56% of the vote, and both with booming Hispanic populations, and, in New Mexico's case a majority non-white voting-age population and a large population of white liberals in Santa Fe and Albuquerque. As opposed to PA, with a large blue collar white union block in Philly and NE PA, as well as in the SW which is very anti-Obama these days, and sketchy suburban moderates in the Philly suburbs that might back a Democrat and might not. It's an assessment that makes no sense. Though I don't think Obama have much of a chance at losing Pennsylvania.  
[ Parent ]
Maybe it's just because
Pennslyvania has consistently gone Democratic while the other two have not. I can understand that thinking. After all, if Kerry could hold on to the state despite the numerous ways Bush tried to flip it, why can't Obama, who has advantages that Kerry never had? Granted, I think Obama will win all three, but if I had to pick the last one to fall, I'd probably pick Pennsylvania.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Maybe you answered your own question
PA has unions, NM/NV have Hispanics.  Both are going to turn-out and vote big for Obama (Hispanics because it's Obama and unions because it's post-WI 2012), but which are the more reliable voters?  (Personally, I think that'll come down to a draw; both will turn-out and will turn-out big.)  This all speaks to why Obama sucks on the union issue.  I hate to say this, but be more like Bush as he would have immediately inserted himself into these local, statewide issues.  I feel like Obama goes, eh, I'm President of the United States of America, I need to be above that fray.  Not if you are running for re-election and leader of the Democratic Party.
[ Parent ]
Not sure Obama has room to grow among NV/NM Hispanics or PA unions, though
PA unions were already mighty favorable to Obama in '08, voting for him 2 to 1 over McCain. I'd wager most of the McCain union supporters were those "racist" whites in the SW and I doubt Obama can win them over. In Nevada, Obama posted a 3 to 1 margin among Hispanics and, in New Mexico, little more than a 2 to 1 margin. Does Obama really expand into the 4 to 1 range in either? I kinda have my doubts, especially since McCain was such a massively flawed figure on the immigration issue; Hispanics not only came to dislike McCain, they felt betrayed by him. Romney, for what it's worth, doesn't seem to have notably shaky relations with the Hispanic community and, if anything, I anticipate he'll perform better than McCain. Put an Hispanic on the ticket and I could see him break into the low-40s, which probably means CO/NV flips. I don't, however, see how NM really comes into play at all.  

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Not so sure
McCain did have a history of supporting immigration reform and I have no doubt anybody else would have done worse. This time whoever they nominate is likely to be a complete hardliner and there is the double whammy of further growth in the Latino community since 2008. I saw a quote recently from a Republican strategist who is very worried that Obama could top 70% of the Hispanic vote next year.
[ Parent ]
Andrew you're selling so much misinformation and myth here......
When did Bush insert himself into state and local issues?

I don't recall him doing it anymore than Obama.

It's amazing this mythology so many on the left have about Bush.  Dubya was never as powerful and never accomplished nearly as much and never as aggressive in domestic politics as so many liberals talk themselves into believing.

For Obama's part, there is nothing gained for him or for the unions for him to insert himself into the Wisconsin or Ohio or other states' issues.  That's because he has no power to accomplish anything.  And if anything, his involvement only makes things more complicated.

The Indiana GOP just cut a deal largely surrendering on a bunch of stuff.  Richard Trumka today declared victory.  Indiana Dem legislators are largely happy with the outcome.

But what would've happened had Obama inserted himself into Wisconsin?  It's simple:  Daniels and Indiana Republicans would've doubled down and refused to give in.

And whether Kloppenberg and Abele win or lose the Wisconsin elections tomorrow, they would've done worse had Obama been involved.

Obama's involvement just does for the lunatic wingnuts what the Rethug leaders in these states have done for us:  energize the opposing base.  And we gain nothing because Obama can't do anything about state legislation except to sue if it arguably violates federal law or is potentially unconstitutional, and that's not the case with any of these bills.

People need to get realistic about what a President can and cannot do.  And they need to get real and drop this revisionist history about Dubya.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I think Obama wins NM, PA, NV, in that order
Obama probably won't even break a sweat over New Mexico, that is unless Susana Martinez is the VP nominee (and, even then, Obama wins by at least 5). Pennsylvania should be closer than '08 - he's probably still unpopular in the SW and some of the Philly suburbs Toomey voters might vote for the Republican here - but I think you're still looking at a minimum of a 3-5 point victory for him. I happen to think Nevada could prove tricky, at least if Romney's the nominee.  

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
I don't see how NV would be a problem
the Mormon vote is pretty much maxed out for Republicans anyway, and the Hispanic population hasn't gotten any smaller over the past few years.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
NM
The thing about New Mexico is that it is normally Democratic and 2000 and 2004 were exceptions to it as Bush significantly over performed there as compared with a generic Republican. He spent a considerable amount of time and energy in working the Latino vote and really held his margins down there. His Viva Bush slogan was a stroke of genius. Neither Gore (though I was barely politically aware at that time and was barely eligible to vote then as a HS Senior) nor Kerry had anything to counter this. Also his immigration policy really isn't too far off of what Obama's would be I would venture to say. Bush had considerable strength in the Latino community and this was probably one of the bigger issues that his base hated him for. While polling is difficult to exactly nail down it is estimated that in 2004 Bush had 44% of the Latino vote in NM compared to only 30% for McCain. That and its increased vote share due to population growth occurring faster in Latinos as compared with whites makes NM increasingly difficult for a Republican to win especially one that is harshly anti-immigration and uses over the top rhetoric.  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  
[ Parent ]
Perhaps it's not as bad as I remember, but
I am pretty sure that Kerry barely targeted Hispanic voters in the ways that Bush did. I get that they wouldn't make exactly the same appeals, but to simply cede specific mediums to your opponent? That's insane, yet sadly true.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Yep
That is 100% true. Bush went all out to get the Latino vote. While it didn't deliver in huge amounts for him it certainly held his deficits down. He advertised on Spanish radio, TV and his Viva Bush campaign was fantastic. Kerry just didn't have that target from what I saw. While it didn't move the needle in my family I could definitely see that it had an impact with others. Fast forward to now and there is no way that you will ever see (at least very very unlikely in the near future) a Republican who targets Latinos as hard as Bush did for fear of being teabagged for supporting "amnesty".  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  
[ Parent ]
hmm
CO, IA, NV, NH, NM, WI should all be lean D. Obama won them all easily (CO by 8, others by 10 or more) and should win them again barring a total collapse. NM in particular has turned blue faster than any other state in the country. IN is lumped in with a lot of states he lost big and should be lean R at worst.  

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
Feels like all of the states listed in Likely Dem should be Solid Dem
None of those states has gone Republican since 1988 (Maine came the closest in 2000). For likely Dem I'd put MN and NJ, and Lean Dem I'd put MI, PA, NV, NM and WI.

I'd buy tossups for the others he's currently got in that column. And I agree that Indiana is Lean GOP, not likely

[ Parent ]
Yeah, those states are really bizarre
Especially CT, IL, and CA. Besides being strongly Dem-leaning states, CT and CA resisted the Republican wave in 2010, and IL is his home state,  

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Keep in mind
Its not enws if a landslide is projected from the start.  18 months out if Obama already has 300+ EV's with an improving economy it will be tough for them to write about anything substantive for the next 18 months.
[ Parent ]
Okay, but
why not explain their thinking for classifying each state a particular way? People may not always agree with the way that I think about these things, but I think it's clear why I think the way I do. If the format doesn't allow for something long, include a link to something that does.

You're right that it wouldn't give them much to write about, but that's because they aren't being creative. There will be thousands of other elections occurring in different states that will be affected by the presidential race in some way. Hell, I'd imagine you could get a lot of copy out of focusing on Indiana, Missouri, and Texas and Obama's effect on congressional, state, and local races. I'd need someone to help me with the numbers to make sure I didn't make any silly errors, but I could easily figure out a way to make this interesting for the relatively small but devoted group of people that follow this stuff. Political reporters should be able to do the same.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Just eyeballing some '08 numbers
(since it's just an eyeball, I may have erred here and there)

All of the Solid D states voted for O by > 24.5%
All of the Likely D states voted for O by between 16 and 26%
All of the Lean D states voted for O by between 10 and 17%

The criteria seems a bit more complex (I really mean "odd") for the "toss up" states, so I didn't go further.

[ Parent ]
Criteria
Looks to me like Bush states. Toss them into tossup. Very lazy.
[ Parent ]
They make a bid deal of demographic change
Yet, NM is a tossup? Can't agree. CO and NV probably lean that way too. I think the only true tossups right now are NC, FL, OH and maybe NH and VA. No way NJ isn't likely either. On the other side I would swap MT and IN.
[ Parent ]
I agree First Read's take has mistakes in the GOP's favor, but I don't think very many......
I agree totally that it's asinine to call IL (Obama's home state!) and CA anything but safe D.  I think CT's demographics are a little more doable for Republicans than CA's and IL's, and I won't completely fault putting CT in "likely."

And NM and NV most definitely should be "lean D."  Those states have crossed a tipping point where Democrats now have a natural advantage, and increasing Hispanic and other nonwhite vote share ensures the new Dem advantage remains.

Beyond that I think the rest are OK.  I wouldn't necessarily rate them all that way, but I can see a rational argument for them.

But IL, CA, NV, and NM are the 4 where I think First Read is way off.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Wisconsin Supreme Court prediction
So, I've been gaming this out in my head, and with the elections in Milwaukee County and Madison County coming the same day, coupled with the increased motivation of Dem voters in Wisconsin in general, I really don't see how Prosser can win. I'm almost ready to call it a slam dunk for our side. Anyone disagree?

Looking down the road, it's going to be interesting. Assuming Kloppenburg wins (and personally, I think she wins big) and the Supreme Court overturns the collective bargaining rule, what do the Republicans do? Pass it again, with the Senate recall election looming, or let it fail and try to take the steam out of the recall?

Any updates on the recalls?


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
I disagree vehemently...
At best, it is a tossup.  I still think we are behind and massive turnout will be needed to get us over the top.  It's really hard to beat out an incumbent judge, even with it having bigger political ramifications.  It's also important to note that Walker still has high approvals all things considered.  His approval is in the 40's, remember... much higher than his their buddies in the midwest and has successfully consolidated his base.  Prosser=Walker helps, but it also brings out the Walker supporters--there are many more of them than we think.

Anyways, if we do win, here's what happens.  Prosser still will be on the court for awhile.  While a lame duck, he will overturn the injunction and the law will be processed while the trial continues.  That's my prediction.

But, here's a positive tea leaf for ya, IMO. Last week, the National Review reveled that Prosser's internal poll numbers were pretty lousy (essentially tied).  Ever since then, the Review seems to have conceded the race.  All the articles they've printed post-polling revelation all presume that Kloppenburg has essentially already won.  Since they seem to be the only ones who've seen the polling, that seems to be their inside take--that they feel it's basically over.  Take with as many grains of salt as you wish.

Other good signs is that massive infusion of teabagger money and ads late.  Obviously, they wouldn't be doing this if the race wasn't losable.  Also, Prosser himself was whining to the National Review online about how unfair it is that he's been targeted and the whole world is against him.  He is already sounding like a sore loser.  It certainly gave the sense that it was a pre-concession speech.

So, a lot of signs are good, but it means nothing until people turn out.  I still think we are behind, especially if the teabaggers wake up and vote on Tuesday.

[ Parent ]
Wow - really?
I believe you're on the ground, so I have to take seriously what you're saying, and I know you're obviously on the right side of things.

But still Lord Mike - reminding you that there probably aren't a lot of potential Wisconsin voters at this site, and so you don't have to worry about making people overconfident - are you sure you're not being a wee bit pessimistic here? I too have been noticing that conservatives seem to be conceding the race, and also the fact that two left leaning counties like Madison and Milwaukee are having other major elections that same day makes me think we are going to win.

It won't be the first time I've been overconfident (I predicted Sestak would win in Pennsylvania). But I have to admit, if I wake up Wednesday and Prosser has won, I will be surprised (and a little discouraged).  

[ Parent ]
Hey,
can I have your e-mail address? There's a blog post that I'd like to send you, but its content is kind of controversial and I'd rather not divert this thread into some entirely off topic and related to policy. But it specifically relates to Wisconsin (which is apparently your home state?) and your good friend Scott Walker. I'd be interested in your take on this, since you appear to be more up to date on a lot things than I am.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Is there any way to get it to you without exposing it to the world?
Are you on dKos?  They have a private messaging system...
[ Parent ]
oh please, we're all "friends" here
Although I do have the perfect way to make your dick six inches bigger!
[ Parent ]
It's not you guys I'm concerned with...
But, this stuff stays in the Internet ether for a long time.

As for the second part... well... I'm afraid if I try your technique, I'll never find any pants that fit! ;-)

[ Parent ]
I agree with LordMike, my sense is this is a nailbiter at best for us......
Knocking off a sitting judge really is tough, and the Rethug voters aren't all sitting on their hands, they, too, plan to show up.

Hopefully Abele and Kloppenberg get over the line first on Tuesday, but we should be on pins and needles.

I'll never forget Election Day 2004, the fact that the Bush campaign themselves clearly entered the late afternoon/early evening thinking they'd lost.  They didn't realize how well their own turnout operation really worked.

So in the closest of races like these, we know nothing until election night.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Okay, you and Lord Mike both have made some good points
I still think neither of you are taking into account the County executive races in Milwaukee and Madison, which are going to drive primarily progressive turnout. But I don't care if Prosser loses by a few votes or a landslide as long as he loses.  
[ Parent ]
I think you are overstating the effect of those races...
The Madison race is basically between two democrats and Milwakee County has a lot of republicans in it as well (they did vote and re-elect Walker several times over).  It won't be enough if the conservatives mount a surge of sorts...
[ Parent ]
markhanna, on the contrary, I AM taking those races into account to conclude...
...those races help make this a tossup.

Absent those races, Prosser would have a clear lead in spite of his problems and the labor fight.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Here's my rebuttal
While knocking off sitting judges is really tough, being on the losing end of a momentum change right before ED for a special election in April may be tougher.
[ Parent ]
Agreed with LordMike
Prosser is an established incumbent and conservatives have become engaged in this election recently. If it was held a week earlier I think we'd have a great shot, now I am more pessimistic.  
[ Parent ]
The question is which group is larger?
There are two rather large elections in Milwaukee and Madison which cuppled with the Supreme Court race should theoretically insure a larger turn out on the left.  

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
I think you are right to be skeptical of the idea that we have this in the bag
The sense I get is that voters are closely divided on Prosser and this will all come down to turnout. The MKE/Dane county elections give me more optimism, but turnout could still easily go either way. If you were to force me to make a prediction, I would say Kloppenburg is slightly favored, but really anything could happen. I wouldn't even be surprised if one side wins big tommorow. A large turnout gap favoring either side is completely possible.  

Male, VA-08
[ Parent ]
Tough call
In Eau Claire, on the more-conservative south side (not that there's any truly conservative part of the city, but the south side in general is somewhat more conservative/Republican than the downtown or the north side), I initially saw mostly Kloppenburg signs a couple weeks ago, more signs than I'd ever see for a Supreme Court election in this state.  However, starting about a week ago, the Prosser signs have really started sprouting up across the area.  Not the levels I'd see during a November election, but to the point that a good number of Republicans have gotten engaged enough to get signs.  In addition, signs for a Republican-leaning School Board write-in candidate - David Westrate, the father of the Eau Claire County Republican chair - have been appearing in the last few days.  Being a write-in, he'll have more difficulty getting elected (there are 2 people on the ballot and 2 positions open), but he's the only name on any signs in the city, so that has to count for something.

Not to be a pessimist, but I wouldn't be too shocked if the GOP has a good night tomorrow night (Eau Claire also has a big school referendum on the ballot, and I've seen almost entirely "Yes" signs, but not many signs in general for that).

[ Parent ]
ack
all these comments make me think my above comment on momentum is a bit wrong as the momentum was a week late
[ Parent ]
or early, rather

[ Parent ]
Now you're reading too much into these comments!......
Look, the above comments are smart, but those guys are just reading tea leaves.  They're not unwise to do so, we all do that, and tea leaves are all we have, but the tea leaves are too few to form a smart opinion about the likely outcome.

We don't know what will happen tomorrow night.

But I'll say this, my thinking as of now is that Abele is more likely to win than Kloppenberg.  It's an open office for local executive who tangibly and immediately affects the voters' lives, that's going to drive a lot more interest on the out-party's side than a judicial election.  And Milwaukee County is more Democratic than the state as a whole, even if Democratic turnout normally has a huge dropoff in these local elections.

I won't be surprised if both Abele and Prosser win tomorrow.

And I think Prosser/Stone both winning is more likely than a Kloppenberg/Abele sweep.

I'm nervous and I hope we can pull this out.  It's a shot in the arm for Democrats across the country if we can do it.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Totally misread that Utah rep.
as Stephen Sandstorm.  Would be a kickass name for sure.
That's an awesome
Pro-westler/porn star name.
[ Parent ]
State rep proposes unicameral legislature in Maine
Link here. So far as structural reforms go, this is one that I like.

She's proposing a 151-seat legislature, though, which struck me as crazy. Turns out that's the current size of the Maine House. Ideal population size for a House district in Maine? 8797!

When I was a student government legislator in college, I represented a constituency of about thousand. The idea of a state legislator representing only eight times that many people is very odd to me. By way of comparison, a Michigan state house district's ideal population size is about 90k.

30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.

This has come up before
and (shockingly) died in the Senate.

I do think most states could get away with a unicameral legislature, particularly the smaller ones.

[ Parent ]
Right next door in NH
They have a house of 400!  Which means the ideal district size is 3,291.  They don't subdivide towns though, but rather vote on lists, which is one of the reason why they have such large swings there, since most people either vote all Dem or all GOP.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08
[ Parent ]
But It's Not Just That...
The 24-member Senate (so we're talking about 60K per legislator there, which is fairly normal for states other than large ones) also swings wildly.

They went from 14-10 for the Good Guys to 19-5(!) for the Bad Guys in one election cycle.



36, M, Democrat, MD-03

[ Parent ]
my eyes actually popped at that
14-10 to 5-19 is quite the ass-whoopin.
[ Parent ]
Brutal
14-10 is probably an all-time Democratic high for the NH Senate. Don't think any seat went from R to D, but I don't know how many incumbents ran for re-election.  

They're now down to the Durham (UNH) seat, the Lebanon-Hanover (Dartmouth) seat, the Keene-based seat, the Concord-based seat, and one of the two based in Manchester.  

I'd expect to get a few of them back this time around, hopefully enough to sustain a party-line veto. I think the Ds will hold NH-Gov because I can't see the voters wanting to reward the nonstop cavalcade of crazy that the House has been churning out since the session began.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

[ Parent ]
There must be a seat based in
Nashua right? and Portsmouth?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Portsmouth is stuck in a district with a bunch of Republican towns
And Nashua is split up into two districts. It's really a gerrymandered mess.
[ Parent ]
That map is gross.
but I noticed one of the districts is Nashua-only. I'm surprised the Dems couldn't hold that one, but I assume it will be a top takeover target.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Possible Targets
Just eyeballing this map and not knowing a ton about the incumbents...

The 13th is entirely in Nashua. (The 12th has parts of Nashua, but the towns with it are bad news for Dems.)
The 16th and 18th are in parts of Manchester. Both have fairly red towns since all the towns that surround Manchester are red, but neither one has any of the gruesome triad of Bedford, Londonderry, and Merrimack.  
The Rochester-based 6th seems like a possibility.
The Seacoast 24th is too. Most of the towns lean a little to the GOP other than Portsmouth but Portsmouth is almost half the population of the district.
The 8th has the Sunapee area, and Claremont.
The 2nd is a mix of traditionally red-but-shifting North Country with parts of the fairly blue Upper Valley.

The 7th has a decent number of small Democratic-leaning towns, but not sure they really add up to anything.



36, M, Democrat, MD-03

[ Parent ]
Jesse Ventura was a big proponent of Unicameral
Disliked the man on a personal level but there were a lot of his policies I agreed with including a Unicameral Legislature. Of course the Legislature was never going to vote half of themselves out of a job but I like the idea.

 

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

[ Parent ]
I hope Rand Paul and Ron Paul both run!
That would be an interesting dynamic.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
Paul said he wouldn't run if Paul runs
...

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
But what if
Paul had a miscommunication with Paul and Paul calls Paul to clear it up, but it's too late as Paul is already in the race?


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
This is getting too confusing. Who are we talking about again?


Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
Steve Holt!

[ Parent ]
4 more years, 4 more years

[ Parent ]
Mike Beebe steers clear of redistricting
http://ozarksfirst.com/fulltex...

"It's traditionally been the role of the legislature, sans the governor," Beebe said.

I'm guessing he'll sign whatever map the legislature sends to his desk.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

Well, the Gov gets involved in State Leg. redistricting.
It's a panel of three with the Gov, A-G, and SoS.  The first two are Dems.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
SSP Daily Digest: 4/4 | 123 comments

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