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North Carolina: 9-4 GOP edge

by: Nathaniel90

Sun Mar 06, 2011 at 8:05 PM EST


As with Texas, it's possible that I'm using circa-2008 estimates rather than real 2010 Census figures, but given the accuracy of past approximations I doubt the district lines would look terribly different if I drew them using real Census data. I did this so election stats could be included.

Basically, the Republicans can draw up to a 9-4 map in North Carolina, should everything go right and as long as they don't mind drawing lines even uglier than the Democrats drew ten years ago.

Read below the fold...
Nathaniel90 :: North Carolina: 9-4 GOP edge
This map would protect Renee Ellmers and target Larry Kissell, Brad Miller, and Heath Shuler for defeat. Patrick McHenry would have to accept some new Democrats in Asheville, as would Sue Myrick in Charlotte and Howard Coble in Greensboro.

Here it is in all its revolting glory:

Photobucket

District 1 (brown) - G.K. Butterfield (D)
Demographics: 48% black, 45% white
2008 Vote: Obama 62-37
Geography: western coastal plain

Unfortunately, I did not see an easy way to get the black % over 50, though I might have missed something obvious. In any case, it is still VRA-protected and still heavily Democratic.

District 2 (green) - Renee Ellmers (R)
Demographics: 66% white, 21% black
2008 Vote: McCain 54-45
Geography: clockwise from Danville to Raleigh to Fayetteville

In most states this would be an unusually ugly district, but to create a 9-4 GOP map in 50-50 North Carolina took some seriously unaesthetic boundaries. Compared to the 6th, 12th, and 13th, this one isn't even so bad, and it should be effective at reelecting Ellmers even against a reasonably strong Democrat (remember, 54-45 McCain is equivalent to roughly 60-39 Bush in 2004).

District 3 (purple) - Walter Jones (R)
Demographics: 76% white, 16% black
2008 Vote: McCain 61-38
Geography: eastern coastal plain, barrier islands

Not much changed, and still a strong GOP seat. I thought about diluting this one to hurt Mike McIntyre, but there are enough Democrats in Fayetteville and Wilmington that it was not practical to crack his seat along with Kissell's in the southern part of the state.

District 4 (red) - David Price (D)
Demographics: 51% white, 30% black
2008 Vote: Obama 74-25
Geography: Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill

A compact Democratic vote-sink, meant to help Renee Ellmers and hurt Brad Miller. Likely one of the most liberal seats in the South under this map.

District 5 (yellow) - Virginia Foxx (R)
Demographics: 81% white, 10% black
2008 Vote: McCain 59-40
Geography: Appalachians and Piedmont Triad

This remains the most Republican of the western seats, and Foxx should have no trouble getting reelected for the rest of the decade.

District 6 (turquoise) - Howard Coble (R)
Demographics: 73% white, 15% black
2008 Vote: McCain 54-45
Geography: Kannapolis, Greensboro, Durham

Talk about a meandering district! This one is "gerrymandered" to be GOP-leaning but not the GOP vote sink that it has been in the 2000s. It sheds strong GOP areas near Greensboro to the 13th and those in the south to the 8th.

District 7 (grey) - Mike McIntyre (D)
Demographics: 57% white, 27% black
2008 Vote: Obama 54-45
Geography: Fayetteville, Lumberton, Wilmington

Not quite a Democratic vote-sink, but a reasonably Dem-leaning seat in the south, ceding its Republican areas to the 8th. I figure that if GOP mapmakers see that they must choose between saving Kissell or McIntyre, they will pick McIntyre due to his 8-term seniority and the loose cannon tendencies of likely candidate Ilario Pantano. In a particularly Republican year they might pick this one up anyway, and especially aggressive party folk have not yet conceded that they can't unhinge both Kissell and McIntyre.

District 8 (lavender) - Larry Kissell (D)
Demographics: 66% white, 21% black
2008 Vote: McCain 54-46
Geography: Charlotte, High Point, Fayetteville

I wanted to make sure Kissell would lose, and thus did just about everything possible to add Republican areas to a district that, flanked by Charlotte and Fayetteville, really shouldn't be Republican. Now his district is every bit as conservative as Myrick's to the west.

District 9 (cyan) - Sue Myrick (R)
Demographics: 78% white, 12% black
2008 Vote: McCain 54-46
Geography: Charlotte, Gastonia

Myrick hopefully won't mind giving up some conservative turf in her fast-growing district to help her party defeat Kissell.

District 10 (fuchsia) - Patrick McHenry (R)
Demographics: 82% white, 10% black
2008 Vote: McCain 58-41
Geography: Asheville, Hickory, Gastonia

McHenry splits liberal Asheville with Shuler to hurt the latter's reelection prospects. He should still be plenty safe, however.

District 11 (light green) - Heath Shuler (D)
Demographics: 89% white, 4% black
2008 Vote: McCain 55-44
Geography: Appalachians and Asheville

Cracking Asheville moved this district several points in the Republican direction, perhaps enough so to derail Shuler; though he's proven resilient until now, remember that 55-44 McCain is equivalent to a Bush '04 % in the low 60s.

District 12 (white) - Mel Watt (D)
Demographics: 47% black, 36% white
2008 Vote: Obama 72-28
Geography: meanders from Winston-Salem and Greensboro down to Charlotte

It seems impossible to draw a black-majority seat in North Carolina anymore, but this one is decidedly VRA-protected and now arguably not even the ugliest district in the state (the 6th is worse, I think).

District 13 (peach) - Brad Miller (D)
Demographics: 76% white, 14% black
2008 Vote: McCain 53-46
Geography: Greensboro, Raleigh, northern border

Turnabout is fair play, and Miller's gerrymander will now be turned against him as his most reliable Democratic voters are soaked up by Price's 4th and Coble's 6th. Again, 53-46 is not a huge spread but Obama '08 may have been a relative high watermark. Miller's liberal reputation will not serve him well either.

In sum, Kissell and Miller should be toast, and I doubt Shuler could make it with a divided Asheville. While a lawsuit is inevitable, I doubt the courts would intervene; precedent says that lines can be ugly as long as they are not racial gerrymanders.  
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North Carolina: 9-4 GOP edge | 29 comments
Ouch.
Does the legislature get to draw state legislature lines too in NC w/o governor veto power?

I hope if the Dems get the legislature back ( a big if), they undo this monstrosity.

21,Democrat, NY-02, male

The state constitution
requires state legislative districts to be whole-county districts.

I'm also hoping that AG Cooper watches this whole thing like a hawk.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

[ Parent ]
Yes, no veto power
The legislature has sole redistricting power in North Carolina and Connecticut.

20 years old, male, GA-12 (home), GA-10 (school); previously lived in CA-29, CA-28, CA-23, IL-06, IL-14, GA-01.
[ Parent ]
I get the feeling...
...that this was an artifact of a time when the Republicans started winning the Governor's mansion in North Carolina but not the state legislature.  So, Democrats amended the constitution so they could have free reign of redistricting.  And now it bites them in the ass.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Pretty good job.
Roguemapper once said that the NC GOP announced that they plan to make Watt's district considerably more compact and to have the US Congress districts emulate their state legislative districts (in that they do their best to not cut counties).  Whether this is a lie is unknown.

One thing I'm wondering is whether the State Legislature or the A-G submits the map for preclearance or to go to the D.C. Circuit Court.

In 2012, Kissell and Shuler could survive these districts, but not in 2010 against good candidates.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

Compacting NC-12
would probably mean an urban Charlotte seat, which would help Myrick and a Republican running in NC-8, but leaves a lot of Democrats in Greensboro and Winston-Salem to be absorbed by Coble, Miller, and Foxx.

20 years old, male, GA-12 (home), GA-10 (school); previously lived in CA-29, CA-28, CA-23, IL-06, IL-14, GA-01.
[ Parent ]
BTW
NC-12 is not "decidedly VRA protected" as drawn on this map. In fact, four Supreme Court rulings have stated that it is decidedly not VRA protected. After revising the district to its current form, the Democratic legislature insisted that they drew the district for purely partisan purposes using voting behavior to determine the lines without regard to race.
[ Parent ]
What about the First?
Drawing it in it's current configuration in Dave's App, I'm getting W 42.6%, B 49.3%, all others 8.1%. With VAP, it's W 45.6%, B 47.8%, all other 6.6%. It needs about 95k population to get up to ideal size.

In your opinion, roguemapper, what does the VRA require? An attempt to get it to majority black status? Plurality black? If either, total population or VAP? Or does it not require anything at all?

(FWIW, the stats in Dave's App for the current Twelfth are W 38.6%, B 43.3%, H 12.4%, all other 5.7%. With VAP, it's W 42.4%, B 42.4%, H 10.1%, all other 5.1% -- white plurality. It's about 9k overpopulated.)

30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.

[ Parent ]
NC-01
I have not yet examined the Census figures in detail (I plan to do that in the next couple days) so this is just my tentative view.

According to Bartlett v Strickland if a compact majority-minority district can no longer be drawn, then the VRA does not require that the legislature go to extraordinary lengths in order to draw one. From my preliminary look at the figures, I don't see how a compact majority-black NC-01 district might be drawn. However, it seems clear enough that a compact majority-minority district can be drawn.

So, in my understanding, the VRA requires that a majority-minority district be drawn and that it maximizes the black proportion to the extent that can be done without unduly subordinating traditional redistricting criteria. That's somewhat vague, but that's because the jurisprudence is vague. The current NC-01 was upheld as being "narrowly tailored" to meet the requirements of the VRA; the new one will need to be likewise. The original 1991 majority-minority district that plunged all the way down to Fayetteville was rejected by the Supreme Court.

Voting age population is what matters.

[ Parent ]
Thanks!
That's basically what I was expecting, but I value your opinion. You seem to be one of the most familiar with the actual jurisprudence around here.

30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.
[ Parent ]
While I'm on the subject
Let me also add that the NC GOP has very good reason to compact NC-12 besides the ugliness of the lines. The last 5-4 decision that upheld the district did so when O'Connor was on the Supreme Court. There is no reason to think that a five-justice majority on the current Court would adhere to her "totality of circumstances" analysis in Hunt v Cromartie.

To the contrary, there is almost certainly a five-justice majority that would now agree with the dissent in that case: In short, that no rational person would think that the district was not drawn to pack minority voters, and that this can be demonstrated by the fact that it routinely bypasses non-minority Democratic precincts in order to reach more distant minority Democratic precincts. In other words, that the alleged 'partisan' rationale can be achieved just as well without a racial gerrymander (and this is no doubt true).

So, if the GOP does retain the I-85 configuration of NC-12, they will ironically be risking that their map gets overturned for the exact same reasons that they challenged the district in the 1990s.

[ Parent ]
I think we will see a modified
Michigan type plan from the GOP.  Some random seats

CD6 Coble--Davidson, Randolph-balance in Guilford
CD5 Forsyth and other random counties now in there.

There's enough GOP strength in these arrangements to hold them in their column

Orange-Durham and then a plunge into Wake county-CD4
CD1 & CD3 mostly stay the same.

CD12 will be urban Charlotte-safe for a D but safe for Watts?  

CD2 Johnsoton Nash  Franklin and GOP part of Wake

the rest will fall into place

[ Parent ]
Sounds about right
Maybe not the NC-04 plunge into Wake (I think the GOP would be better served using NC-04 to crack the 1-40 corridor from Durham to Winston-Salem), but for the most part I think that sounds about right.

I do want to take a moment to quote yet another member of the redistricting committee, this time James Forrester (R-Gaston) who had this to say about NC-12 in an interview published by The Daily Tar Heel two days ago: "I don't believe we'll want to have a district that looks like that."

As I've reminded people over and over, the NC GOP has without fail and at every opportunity reiterated that they do not plan to retain the I-85 configuration of the NC-12 district. All these maps which include such a district are non-starters unless we have reason to think that the GOP legislature has changed its mind.

[ Parent ]
And yet more
In the Charlotte Observer from Bob Rucho (R-Mecklenburg), chair of the redistricting committee:

Democratic Rep. Mel Watt's meandering 12th Congressional District probably will compress and take in more voters in east Charlotte, a Republican redistricting leader said Thursday.
...
Rucho said expanding Watt's district into east Charlotte would result in a county split into just two districts, not three. It would also tighten up the 12th.

"At some point, you'd like to make (the 12th) look as compact as you can make it," he said.
...
Moving east Charlotte into the 12th District would take 100,000 people from Kissell's district, including almost 40,000 African-Americans. Last fall, two-thirds of Kissell's winning margin over Republican Harold Johnson came from Mecklenburg.

Anyone interested in how NC is likely to turn out should read the full article. There's a lot more regarding other parts of the state as well.

Meanwhile, it'd be nice to start seeing more NC maps around here that are actually plausible, rather than absurd gerrymanders with no connection to what the NC GOP has consistently said they plan to do.

[ Parent ]
Not necessarily.
'In other words, that the alleged 'partisan' rationale can be achieved just as well without a racial gerrymander (and this is no doubt true).'

Drawing it I-85 allows you to completely crack up Winston-Greensboro. If you keep the district in Charlotte, you might have to draw an extra Greensboro-Durham seat or make the surrounding Republican seats swingy.

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)

[ Parent ]
Yep
The NC GOP has repeatedly stated that they will not draw lines such as these. An equally big problem with this map, however, is that Virginia Foxx and Patrick McHenry have been drawn into the same district, and Walter Jones has been drawn into the majority-minority NC-01 district. Neither will happen under any circumstance.
[ Parent ]
Virginia Foxx and Patrick McHenry are in the same district now
Foxx lives in Avery County, which is in McHenry's district. The GOP may accommodate her, but since she already doesn't reside in her district, I doubt it will be an issue.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
[ Parent ]
She lives in Watauga County, not Avery
n/t
[ Parent ]
I've seen her hometown listed as Banner Elk, which is Avery


24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
[ Parent ]
A common error
The Banner Elk 28604 zip code crosses county lines between Avery County & Watauga County. Virginia Foxx definitely lives in Watauga County. Look up the Hanging Rock Golf & Country Club for reference if you'd like. Foxx lives in that vicinity.
[ Parent ]
I didn't know about that
I stand corrected.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
[ Parent ]
Up in them thar hills
It's an easy error to make, as many a lost driver could tell you. Take the right turn and you end up in some ultra-snotty resort enclave; take the wrong turn and you end up in Deliverance. lol
[ Parent ]
Interesting.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
LOL at Deliverance


24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
[ Parent ]
While we're on the subject of NC incumbent residency...
There are four incumbents that I'm curious about their residency.

My impression from the last time this came up is that Jones lives in the part of Farmville that's in his district. Is that correct?

Wikipedia lists Coble as Greensboro, but I feel like I recall reading someone here saying he's actually in Summerfield. Again, is this correct?

I assume Myrick lives in the southern quarter of Charlotte that's in her district?

And roughly speaking, where in Raleigh does Miller live?

30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.

[ Parent ]
Residency
Walter Jones lives on the western side of Farmville.

Howard Coble lives in Summerfield.

Sue Myrick lives in southern Charlotte (Piper Glen Estates).

Brad Miller lives inside the 440 Beltline in the quadrant between Glenwood Avenue and Capital Boulevard.

[ Parent ]
Thanks!


30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.
[ Parent ]
Well, if you wanted to be even more ugly than
the one you did, it is possible to draw 2 African-American Majority VRA seats.

http://swingstateproject.com/d...

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)

A map a while ago on RRH
called a district similar to your NC-04 the most liberal district between West Palm and Alexandria. I think that's right.
North Carolina: 9-4 GOP edge | 29 comments

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