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SSP Daily Digest: 3/1

by: DavidNYC

Tue Mar 01, 2011 at 8:05 AM EST


FL-Sen: Mike Haridopolos is starting to look like one of those guys who just seems to track muck wherever he goes - or has been. How do you like this for both ridiculous and corrupt? He received an astounding (a) $152K (b) in taxpayer money to (c) write a book that (d) no one would ever read - and that (e) never got published because (f) the manuscript was too shitty to print. Getting that much (a) to do (c) is remarkable in any environment, but particularly when (a) is in the form of (b), and (d) ensures that the whole venture will be a major money-loser. (E) and (f) are really just the punch line - which makes Haridopolos the joke (and Florida taxpayers the serious losers here).

MA-Sen: I get the sense that Deval Patrick's decision to blab to the National Journal about the candidates he's talked to who might run for senate must either have been deliberately planned or really unappreciated. Patrick said that 2010 special election candidate Alan Khazei and Newton Mayor Setti Warren told him they are "in, for sure" - leading Warren to tell Wicked Local Newton that he's merely considering the race and has no timetable for an announcement. Was Patrick fluffing Warren in a helpful way, or was he just cracking out of turn?

MT-Sen, MT-Gov: Was this even a thing? Dave Catanese asked Gov. Brian Schweitzer if he and Sen. Jon Tester might trade places - the term-limited Schweitzer running for senate and the flat-topped Tester running for governor. Schweitzer said nuh-uh.

TN-Sen: I won't call it a "must-read," but a strong "should-read" piece in the Tennesean gives some good background on Nashville Mayor Karl Dean, who may be one of the strongest (only?) Dem options to take on Sen. Bob Corker in 2012. Dean has a Phil Bredesen-like "moderate" background, has been largely successful as mayor, and also has a very wealthy wife. But the article notes that Dean first has to win re-election as mayor this August (though he's the favorite) - and more importantly, he hasn't express any particular interest in running for senate. Maybe a run against freshman Gov. Bill Haslam in 2014 might be a better choice.

VT-Sen: Republican state Auditor Tom Salmon says he'll decide on whether to challenge Sen. Bernie Sanders this week. He has a conference planned for noon Thursday.

IN-Gov: Mike Pence, a very likely gubernatorial candidate, offered quite a bit less than a full-throttled defense of Gov. Scott Walker's attempts at union busting, perhaps in an effort to avoid a rift with the man he's hoping to replace, Gov. Mitch Daniels. But given that Daniels' decision not to follow Walker's lead engendered a ton of teabagger vitriol, I'm wondering if Pence's move to go soft here might cause him trouble in a potential GOP primary.

ME-Gov: Speaking of Scott Walker, Gov. Paul LePage, elected with 38% of the vote, says that he, too, will pursue his lifelong dream of destroying collective bargaining rights. LePage may run into static from the GOP legislature, though, before he has the chance to fully transform himself into Kochbot 2.0.

MS-Gov: It's always a little tricky when someone is referred to as a businessman of some sort, but I'm going to guess that newly-announced Republican gubernatorial candidate Ron Williams, "owner of Pascagoula-based Hazmat Services Inc.," is a lot closer to the Some Dude end of the spectrum than the zillionaire kapitalist side.

WI-Gov: Speaking of Scott Walker yet again, the RGA has a new ad coming out in support of said governor, but of course, NWOTSOTB. Meanwhile, a fellow who says he did "micro-targeting" for Obama in 2008, Ken Strasma of Strategic Telemetry, has a poll out which he says supports the idea that Walker could be vulnerable to a recall. And through the use of un-revealed "micro-targeting models," Strasma also thinks that there would be more than enough people willing to sign a petition in each of the eight Republican state senate districts where senators are currently exposed to the legal possibility of a recall.

WA-Gov: Show of hands - does anyone here think Gov. Christine Gregoire will actually seek a third term? Hey, maybe we're all wrong, but the very fact that she's even been entertaining the idea has already been a big enough surprise. Anyhow, Gregoire says she'll decide by "early summer."

Meanwhile, Democratic King County Executive Dow Constantine, whose name proverbially "came up" last December (see SSP Amazing Daily Digest, Issue #44) as Rep. Jay Inslee was seen to be holding his fire, sounds largely like a "no." Constantine said he might "at some point be interested in an opportunity," but "I have on my plate a few matters in King County government and I'm going to remain focused on that this year." Of course, with Gregoire now fogging in the control tower, everyone else is probably going to be put in a holding pattern.

CA-36: This may not be a huge surprise, but Janice Hahn said that now ex-Rep. Jane Harman was querying her about her future political plans when she was a guest of Harman's at the State of the Union address in January (going so far as to ask Hahn whether she'd be interested in running for CA-36), then tipped Hahn about her resignation announcement hours before she made it. This helps explain Hahn's particularly energetic burst out of the gates, but it doesn't explain - or excuse - Debra Bowen's anemic start. Two weeks after announcing, Bowen's website is still nothing more than a splash page with a big "Contribute" button, and I haven't seen a single announcement of any high-profile endorsements. Does a sitting Secretary of State really have that few friends in high places?

FL-25: When you've lost Eric Cantor... the no. 2 Republican in the House was in Miami for a fundraiser, but already-doomed Rep. David Rivera was pointedly asked to stay away. Worse, Cantor said he has "concerns" about Rivera, and worse still, he was seen meeting with former state Rep. Renier Diaz de la Portilla, a possible replacement for Rivera. (Diaz de la Portilla, who served just one term in the state House a decade ago, is the brother of former state Sen. Alex, who was touted as a possible FL-25 candidate last cycle, and current state Sen. Miguel.)

NY-13: Rep. Mike Grimm is obviously doing the sensible thing here, working with Democrats (and somewhat less-insane-than-usual Republicans) to secure funding for government programs that actually matter to New Yorkers. Money for cops = popular! Of course, "the sensible thing" has pissed off local teabaggers, which could prove a problem for Grimm as he seeks re-election.

NY-25: The namejacking anti-abortion Susan B. Anthony List is running an ad thanking Ann Marie Buerkle for her vote to cut off funding to Planned Parenthood. Kudos to Dave Catanese, who says the size of the buy (which includes online ads) is $75,000, and that the ad itself is expected to run 182 times. It sounds like SBA is also planning to spend another $125K running radio ads in a number of other GOP-held districts: IL-08, IL-14, NH-01, PA-07, and PA-08.

OR-01: Another GOP name has surfaced as a possible challenger to David Wu: State Sen. Bruce Starr says he's considering a run. I think it would be more interesting to get a sense of which Dems are likely to succeed Wu, though, since odds seem slim that a Republican will hold this seat. But of course, most Democrats aren't saying much, and that includes DCCC chair Steve Israel. When your own party's re-election chief says "no comment" about your future, you're long past the point where you should be stepping aside.

Census: The good folks at the Census Bureau will have redistricting data this week for DE, KS, NE, NC, and WY. In other census news, be very glad that Robert Groves is the director of the bureau and the guy he replaced is long-gone. Steve Murdock told the Houston Chronicle that "it's basically over for Anglos" in Texas and that it's a "terrible situation." Wow.

Crossroads GPS: Karl Rove's dark money front organization says it's already spent a million bucks on House race ads this year, which the DCCC "has been unable to come close to matching," according to The Hill. The article makes reference to the David Brock-Kathleen Kennedy Towsend (oy) group that's supposed to be the Dem answer to Crossroads, but has anyone heard a peep from "American Bridge" yet?

Dave's Redistricting App: Dave's got some new census data for all you mappin' fools to play with.

Las Vegas Mayor: Diarist atdleft has a good roundup of ads currently in rotation in the Las Vegas mayoral race. If you haven't been following this one, current mayor Oscar Goodman is term-limited out, and a field including two Dems (Larry Brown and Chris Giunchigliani), one Republican (Victor Chaltiel), and one independent (Goodman's wife Carol) is vying to replace him. There's a top-two primary on April 5th and a run-off (if no one gets 50%) on June 7th.

Teabaggers: Even though 84 Republican freshman joined the House this January, just 11 have joined Michele Bachmann's Tea Party Caucus - and the caucus is now actually smaller than it was when it first started. Anyhow, at least a few of these (click the link for the article) are probably sitting in blue enough territory that this decision will cause heartburn for them on the campaign trail. (But see the classic rock-and-hard-place conundrum faced by Mike Grimm in the NY-13 bullet above.)

Twitter: The Fix compiled a list of their favorite Twitterers in all fifty states. I haven't checked it out yet, though, so I don't even have an opinion. But enjoy!

DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 3/1
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Democratic shortlist in OR-01
Labor Commissioner Brad Avakian
State Sen. Suzanne Bonamici
State Sen. Mark Hass
State Rep. Tobias Read
David Robinson

In approximate descending order of likelihood, according to the C.W., although I suspect Avakian would prefer to remain in Oregon and back his friend and political ally Bonamici for Rep. Wu's seat.

It is, of course, unclear whether the Oregon Democratic leadership would back even an establishment Democrat like Avakian, Bonamici, or Hass against an incumbent congressman if Wu cannot be persuaded to retire.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native


Which one of these candidates
has a political base in Washington County? That's going to pretty much be the core of any OR-01.  

[ Parent ]
All of them are from Washington County, I believe
Not sure about Robinson, but the others represent (or formerly represented) districts within Washington County.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
BlueOregon seems more possimistic now
http://www.blueoregon.com/2011...

As it appears Wu hasn't told all, even though he's said that he has.

Everything we've heard so far is curious - but hardly a collection of incidents that would seem to lead to the sudden departure of the key leaders of his political and congressional staffs, many of whom had worked for him for over a decade.


[ Parent ]
And sorry for the double-post...
But I realized I meant to comment on the MA-Sen story and I forgot.

I get a clear signal from Gov. Patrick on this blabbing: he wants to get minority candidates like Khazei and Mayor Newton to declare already. Considering there's a real potential for the only black senator during the 113th Congress to be a Tea Party Republican from Texas, and considering Patrick is the only sitting black governor in the entire country, it makes perfect sense for this to be a priority for the governor.

I'd like to see Newton in the Senate, personally. He's probably the most realistic prospect for a black Democrat senator to come out of this impending cycle (with Maryland's Lt. Gov. Brown a distant second, as Sen. Cardin is probably unlikely to retire, and Michigan's Rep. Clarke an even more distant third, with Sen. Stabenow even less likely to retire and Clarke down the pecking order from the likes of Rep. Peters and Virg Bernero). Maybe that's a thin reason to support someone, but frankly, none of the other prospective entries to the race have done much to impress me.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native


It's actually Mayor Warren
Newton is the name of the city.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
I almost made that same mistake
In the RRH digest today. I wrote out "Setti Mayor Newton Warren" before realizing I had it backwards.  

[ Parent ]
Haha
There's actually a town of Warren, MA, and I thought it would be interesting if the mayor's name was Setti or Newton. Alas, it's Bob Souza.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Dammit
This is what I get for posting at 3 a.m.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
I'm afraid that this primary is going to get too crowded
I want Democrats to settle around a candidate. I like Warren the best out of all the candidates, followed by Massie probably. But I'm more concerned about uniting behind one guy so he can raise the money.

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

[ Parent ]
Setti Warren is charismatic
I had the pleasure of meeting him, actually. He's good in one-on-ones and pretty on-point in media interviews. I'd say he's got the potential wattage to take on a "star" like Scott "Naked" Brown.

The biggest potential drawback to his candidacy that I see: Newton Mayor is his first elective office and he's only been in it since Jan. 1, 2010. And while it makes Wasilla look like a glorified rest stop, Newton's not that big, either: less than 100,000 residents. Of course, veteran politicians aren't exactly super-popular these days, so it's certainly not an obstacle that's impossible to overcome.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


[ Parent ]
Sen. Scott Brown didn't represent a district much more populous...
And for all of then-Gov. Palin's snobbery about how her resume was so much better than then-Sens. Obama and Biden's resumes, and for how much I hated it and disagreed with it, I do agree with one major point: being a successful executive is a lot more impressive a feat than being a "successful" legislator.

A lot of people think what Congress does is some parliamentary hoodoo and witchcraft that somehow makes our country go. As long as their representatives keep their heads down and vote in accordance with the district's political leanings, well, there's a reason congressional incumbency rates are so damn high.

But executives have to be immediately responsive to the changing needs and conditions of their communities. If there's a natural disaster, they have to step up and lead (or they can fly to Disneyworld, whichever). They're constantly interacting with constituents and local interests, and they have to please them; their reelection is often conditional upon it. They have to oversee a bureaucracy, which has an ecology of its own. Instead of being one of many to vote on a budget, they often have to propose their own budget and shepherd it into law as the most important single person in the process.

Being a senator isn't exactly standing first in line to the presidency. If Sarah Palin was qualified, after serving as Wasilla's do-nothing mayor, to serve as governor of Alaska, Mayor Warren is qualified to serve as the Bay State's junior senator.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native


[ Parent ]
Perhaps more importantly,
would the voters feel that his time as mayor qualifies him to be a senator? I'll at least entertain the idea that being a senator is a little more important than being a lot of other things in government, like a House member, since their numbers are smaller and their influence probably greater, but we saw people without any elected experience, like Ron Johnson and Rand Paul, elected to the Senate this past year. It shouldn't be that much of an issue, if it's one at all.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
This race confuses me the most.
Their are so many different possible candidates mentioned. I wish it would be clearer.  

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
Texas census data
To be fair, when he said "It's a terrible situation," Murdock was most likely referring to the fact that 30% of the labor force in the state will have less than a high school education by 2040 unless current trends reverse, and that the average annual income will be $6500 lower in 2040 than it was in 2000, not adjusted for inflation.  Not the fact that Anglos would become a minority.  

Mississippi: Ever wanted to watch a state party collapse before your eyes?
The Mississippi Democratic Party is in the process of doing so. The filing deadline is today, and unless someone drops their hat into the ring at the last minute, five of the eight statewide offices up for election will be unopposed by the Democrats. Closer to six, actually, since one of the three races with an actual candidate (Agricutlure Commissioner) is being contested by Joel Gill, a two-time loser to Gregg Harper in MS-03. At this point, I would put money on Jim Hood getting dragged down by this incompetence.

And as for the state legislature, the Democrats didn't even have candidates in a majority of the House or Senate districts as of Friday.


A *majority* don't have *candidates*?
Don't they hold the House as of now?  That's just pathetic.

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

[ Parent ]
I
Wouldn't say incompetent, when you recruit you take polls, and when results show you down by 15-20 points, you must be incompetent to run. I didn't hear anyone dispute the argument that it's very likely that Democrats will lose the MS house in Nov.

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8

[ Parent ]
Incompetence
In my opinion is only when you have the voters but not the right candidates or a candidate at least, but when the voters aren't there it's not incompetence but the ideology of voters. That's why I don't think that CA GOP or NY GOP (to a lesser extent) are incompetent.

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8

[ Parent ]
Huh?
Yes, most of these races are pretty much hopeless, but if you don't run candidates, you're 100% certain to lose instead of 90% certain. What exactly is the logic in that, especially when having someone running at least diverts some resources to races that would not require any if they're uncontested?

[ Parent ]
Nobody wants to run
I think is what he's getting at.  

[ Parent ]
Yeah
Nobody but the Dixiecrats of old could hold a lot of these seats.  And as we all know, the Dixiecrats became Republicans or support them.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
That doesn't make much sense
It really is incompetent to not at least try.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

[ Parent ]
Keep in mind
our Gubernatorial candidate in 2007 was almost as conservative as Barbour.

this may not be a fault of not trying, but rather that there are no Democrats in Mississippi anymore.

Republicans don't challenge legislators in Flatbush, Brooklyn not by choice.  


[ Parent ]
They
were Dixiecrats and voted for George Wallace for Prez.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
There are a lot of Democrats left in Mississippi
Just not very many white Democrats.  

[ Parent ]
Mississippi is nowhere near as Republican as Flatbush is Democratic
Obviously, there is a lot political change in the state, but that doesn't mean Democrats should stop trying. Local level is one thing, but statewide level is quite another.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

[ Parent ]
no, but many of the state legislative districts are


[ Parent ]
Anyone up
For calculating a whole mess o' PVIs?

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

[ Parent ]
Me! Me! Me!
I'll be happy to do the districts, and I already have the county PVIs. http://www.thepoliticsgeek.com...

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
Running even when polls show you will lose
 Still works out because even if you lose, it can help your voters turn out so they can vote on downballot races. Also, a candidate that runs make him/herself known to voters and party leaders so if the candidate had another chance to run, this candidate would have better footing.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  


[ Parent ]
that's true
but first you have to actually want to take the time, spend the money, and run.

In the last 15 years, we've had like, what, ONE credible Senate candidate in Mississippi?  


[ Parent ]
yeah
Running even a token campaign on a shoestring budget can at least get you some free media to get your message out, and there's always the possibility that your opponent will implode.

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
Polls are rare in recruiting for legislature outside of targeted and high-profile seats
You don't see a lot of polls run for state legislature during the recruiting process. State parties and potential candidates usually don't want to spend, or often have, the money. Targeted and high-profile seats get polled by the parties looking to assess priority ranking in their strategic plans, but in the "run of the mill" State House or Senate seat recruitment is often done via the party/political establishment(s) within the district- or increasingly for Democrats in the South by whoever completes the paperwork to get on the ballot.  

Democrat: TN-8

[ Parent ]
I think you mean
the Dems don't have candidates in the majority of legislature races that they are currently not holding.

Also, if there are no defections between now and end of filing, that will make this a good day.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
No, as of Friday, they only had candidates in 23/52 Senate districts and 54/122 House districts.
I'm sure some of them were filled yesterday or will be today, but that's still pretty sad.

[ Parent ]
Yeah, I'll wait for the final numbers thank you.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
You can report them when filing is done.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
I'm confused.
They currently have 69 seats in the House and 24 seats in the state Senate. Are people not running for reelection?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Im sure many read the writing on the wall
from this past November.  People (hopefully) won't be as pissed with Obama this November but I'd predict many would be going down if they ran again.

[ Parent ]
So people just aren't running at all?
That makes little sense.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
heh
I've seen worse for state legislative races. In Arizona in 1998 only 11 of the 30 state senate districts had candidates from both major parties, and it wasn't just the Dems who were guilty. District 13 was a swing district that had been held by a Reep as recently as 1996. The Dems also blew off 3 statewide elected positions:

http://www.azsos.gov/election/...

41, Ind, CA-05


[ Parent ]
I realize
that there are limits to what this can accomplish, but as I've said many times before, one of the reasons why I am hoping for a really expanded map in 2012 is that it might reinvigorate some of the state parties around the country. Perhaps it would help a lot less than I realize, but would it really hurt the Mississippi Democratic party if Obama contested the state and worked to rebuild its infrastructure? Maybe I'm not giving Mississippi Democrats enough credit, but I'd be astonished if they were operating at the best of their abilities. Do they have the pieces in place to run a good ground game? If not, why the hell not? I imagine they don't, which is probably pretty similar to a lot of parties out there. And while this doesn't mean instant success, it can probably mean good things now, or in future cycles. At the very least, it could help prevent things from getting worse.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Hood
Has he drawn any opponents?  

[ Parent ]
Ballotpedia has a blank under the section.
Therefore, I dunno.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Public Safety Commissioner Steve Simpson
that's all

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Who
from what I found has no campaign site and says he won't resign his post until "later."

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Thanks for the shout out!
And I'll try to cross-post Las Vegas and Henderson election news more often. Early voting starts in 18 days!

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


Btw, a plea for help...
I just finished redistricting Nevada at DRA with the new Census numbers, but now I need help getting partisan numbers for NV-01, NV-03, and NV-04. Anyone up for some crowdsourcing on compiling election results by precinct?

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


The way I do it for MN
is that I got an Excel of the entire election results with every precinct from the SoS.  Then I make a tab a for each CD and simply copy and paste every precinct from the master list into the CD's.  MN takes me only a few hours.

[ Parent ]
correction
cut and paste.  Once you've cut every precinct and your master list is empty, you're done!

[ Parent ]
Thanks. I'll give that a try.
I still have to count out the various precincts in each district, but at least this may cut down on "organizing" time.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
Strategic Telemetry
Wish they'd also do some stats on some key GOP State Senators, since those are arguably more vulnerable to recall.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


But still
Their conclusion that more than enough people would sign onto a gubernatorial recall is quite heartening.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
The fact of the matter is
that Walker way overreached and his opposition has shown incredible resilience.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
TN: US Senate - Karl Dean? I doubt it this cycle
Karl Dean is an unlikely candidate to challenge Senator Corker in this cycle. He is up for re-election this August as noted, and the timing really isn't right, nor has he even hinted any interest (again as noted). However, there is someone who rarely gets mentioned who could be a solid candidate if recruited - former House Majority Leader AND former Nashville Mayor, Bill Purcell. His name was mentioned in  2006 some, but has kept a low profile since leaving office. He has the background, political acumen, and profile of strong statewide candidate if he ever chose to run.

Democrat: TN-8

Do you think they are talking to him?
Corker may be hard to defeat, especially if Bresden is the nominee, but he's hardly invincible. I don't mean to sound too anxious, because I imagine Democrats that have some influence over this process are working behind the scenes and are focused on getting things done rather than on making statements that are meaningless, but I'd like to hear something--anything--regarding some of these races.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
I don't know if anyone has attempted to recruit him into the race
I haven't heard of anyone formally approaching him, but behind the scenes there might be individuals informally speaking to him about the idea. Odds are we will get some a 2nd or 3rd tier candidate, but its still early, so maybe one of the few viable Democrat will surprise me.  

Democrat: TN-8

[ Parent ]
If Salmon passes, it's probably 'cuz internals show Sanders unbeatable
It seems like Salmon has a pretty massive ego and does want something a tad bigger than State Auditor, but the last thing he wants is to suffer a 2 to 1 blowout here. I still think he could maybe draw within 20 points of Sanders, but even that's kinda miserable.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

@FL-Sen
Ah, no wonder they call it the R(I)POF(F).

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


MI-Sen
Hoekstra down 2 to Stabenow 44-42.

http://whtc.com/news/articles/...

I don't actually think Hoekstra will run for Senate, but Terry Lynn Land would probably be a stronger general election candidate anyway. The key for any GOPer will be making the race about Michigan (especially unemployment) and not about National issues. I think the GOP POTUS nominee will do much better than '08 here, but national issues are still a loser for th GOP in Michigan, stick to state issues and they have a chance

This race is definetly going to be a very tight and go right down to the wire...

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


This poll
Does anyone have a link to the poll itself? The top line from the news article is useless, 44-42 Stabenow in a 600 "Michgan Voters" survey...

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
Wait, found it;
600 "ACTIVE & LIKELY VOTERS" MoE +/- 4.0%

How would you rate the job being done by Barack Obama as President?
44% POSITIVE JOB
55% NEGATIVE JOB (Bullshit)

Rick Snyder as Michigan's Governor?
37% POSITIVE JOB
21% NEGATIVE JOB (Fine I guess)

Debbie Stabenow as one of our two United States Senators
42% POSITIVE JOB
50% NEGATIVE JOB (also probably bullshit)

Also has Romney leading Obama by 46-41. (Bullshit)



"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
Bullshit
Because they use "fair" rather than the standard approve or disapprove.  

[ Parent ]
Yeah, that seems really ludicrous to me
In their defense, their actual wording was:
Overall, how would you rate the job being done by Barack Obama as President -- would you give him a positive rating of excellent or pretty good, or a negative rating of just fair or poor
(emphasis mine)
So they kinda-sorta said that "just fair" was negative, but adding that additional phrase really just makes things more confusing for people. If they wanted to get a real sample, they would just stick to asking people if they approved or disapproved.

Male, VA-08

[ Parent ]
Ahhhhh, how many voters would actually vote against someone
over a "just fair" rating?

[ Parent ]
Yeah, that seems really ludicrous to me
In their defense, their actual wording was:
Overall, how would you rate the job being done by Barack Obama as President -- would you give him a positive rating of excellent or pretty good, or a negative rating of just fair or poor
(emphasis mine)
So they kinda-sorta said that "just fair" was negative, but adding that additional phrase really just makes things more confusing for people. If they wanted to get a real sample, they would just stick to asking people if they approved or disapproved.

Male, VA-08

[ Parent ]
Wow, Michigan
Geez, Michigan, Obama takes heat for being a socialist and puts his political ass on the line to save GM & Chrysler (ie- the dilapidated remains of the state's economy), manages to turn them around and salvage probably hundreds of thousands of jobs throughout those companies and the attendant supply chains and you're giving him a 55% negative rating?  Ungrateful much?

(actually, I'd guess that this is just a skewed sample, but hey, maybe Michiganers are just awful people)

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


[ Parent ]
Huh?
but hey, maybe Michiganers are just awful people

How was that not unfair and ridiculous hyperbole?  You have no idea what's going on, here, and if you're going to take this one ridiculous poll to make such a sweeping judgement about the state, than I can ignore you in the future.


[ Parent ]
that's because American Politics is retarded
To put it simply.

[ Parent ]
Was discussed extensively yesterday
including the lack of internals.

IMO, with the lack of supporting data, it's just one number, awaiting verification by another poll. Otherwise, its a possible outlier, especially if the economy is improving in the midwest, as the numbers are suggesting.


[ Parent ]
Poll it here.
http://www.epicmra.com/press/S...

And there are no demographic toplines in the entire poll; EPIC/MRA never includes what their sample actually is in non-election year surveys, which is why I consider them completely useless. We were talking about the problems with this poll yesterday.

http://www.swingstateproject.c...

20, Democrat, Male, MI-06 (Home), MI-02 (College)


[ Parent ]
is* here.


20, Democrat, Male, MI-06 (Home), MI-02 (College)

[ Parent ]
Saying anything is "definite" this far out
is inherently silly.  The likely universe of results here probably range from a five-point Republican win to a fifteen point Democratic win, with plenty of chance for a result outside that range.  It will depend on several million factors and events that have yet to occur.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
It's probably hard
for the Republican candidate to do worse than McCain did in 2008, barring a 450-plus vote victory in the Electoral College.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
VA-Sen: Kaine/Allen tied, Allen below 50 vs. Perriello and Boucher
http://www.publicpolicypolling...

Tim Kaine - 47
George Allen - 47

George Allen - 48
Tom Perriello - 41

George Allen - 47
Rick Boucher - 42


Not a lot of good news for anybody here
Tim Kaine is Bredesen (TN) and if he runs it's a toss-up.

George Allen isn't in great shape either, upper 40s isn't too bad, but he doesn't have much room to grow either.

Perriello and Boucher probably should have kept Allen's numbers farther down since they aren't very well know. Both have significant room to grow, but likely just up into the upper 40s range that Allen & Kaine are in.

Stick a pin in this one and we'll have to see where we are come summer, but I doubt we'll see anyone get much seperation.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
Woops
Kaine isN'T Bredesen, no silver bullet to win this race IF he does run.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
Kaine
Bresden isn't exactly a silver-bullet in TN, either, but he'd be the strongest candidate. Kaine would have a better chance in VA, but several other Dems could make it a race too.

[ Parent ]
I think these are OK numbers for Democrats
On one hand, PPP's hinting that President Obama will be up quite nicely in their presidential numbers, plus George Allen does seem to (perhaps) have a ceiling in the very high-40s. On the other hand, Allen could probably win, under the right circumstances, with 49% of the vote, and PPP's hinting of vote-splitting among Independents could be troubling on the U.S. Senate side, esp. if this strategy spreads to other swing states (Indies voting for Obama and against Brown in Ohio seems totally plausible, for instance).

So, you've got a presidential race that looks Tilt D and a U.S. Senate race which looks like a legit toss-up. If, however, Kaine doesn't run, this probably goes to Tilt R for a while.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


[ Parent ]
Obama
"At first glance Allen's lead with independents is curious because they have a slightly negative opinion of him and a slightly favorable opinion of Kaine. The reason for that disconnect may actually be explained by the Virginia Presidential numbers we'll release tomorrow, which show Barack Obama in a very solid position to win the state again next year. The conventional wisdom has been that if Obama wins the state the Senate race is likely to come with him, but could there actually be a group of independent voters that go Obama/Allen in the interest of divided government?"  

[ Parent ]
That's the danger of winning to big at the presidential level.
If everyone assumes that the incumbent president is going to win, it "frees" people to ticket split in order to achieve "balance".

I have a hard time believing that they want to split with Allen, however... That guy's a real douche.


[ Parent ]
That could easily be a reflection
of the fact that he's been largely out of the picture for four years. If he's the candidate, I'd imagine his numbers amongst Independents would drop, perhaps dramatically, once the race got started and people remembered why he was voted out of office.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Obama/Allen voters
Just how many of these could we possibly expect to see? Obama and the Democratic senate candidate are likely to get the exact same support amongst Democrats. The real action will almost certainly be amongst Independents, in Virginia and in most other states, and the difference between the margins for Obama and the senate candidate will obviously be key to who wins. If Obama cleans up with 56 percent of Independents, it's entirely possible for the Democratic candidate to get 48 percent and still win, assuming there isn't a surge in Republican voters in the electorate.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
I think these numbers are consistent
with the view that the state will elect a Senator of the party that also wins the Presidency.  

[ Parent ]
This doesn't say anything we don't know
Notice that Allen's numbers are exactly the same against all three Democrats. This seems to indicate that the reason Perriello and Boucher trail is just because of name recognition.

Male, VA-08

[ Parent ]
True
But it also shows that they aren't making many of Allen's supporters think twice about voting for him either, if/when they have similair name ID they'll likely have ballot numbers the same as Kaine. I'm betting you dont' see either side get beyone the MoE before election day.

If it is that close the CW would be that it's a turnout election, that would certainly bode well for the Dems since AA turnout will likely again be record high, but a tight Presidential race (both nationally and in VA) would likely kick up all voter turnout, dampening (though certainly not negating) the affect of AA voter enthusiasm.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
Blacks don't have to turn out
disproportionately. They just have to turn out proportionately. I believe they will.

[ Parent ]
Poll is much whiter than 2008
76-20 versus 70-20. Not enough Lation or Asian voters.

[ Parent ]
Allen's Ceiling
That 48% is pretty close to a ceiling, since most people in VA know who he is. He certainly has his fans, but there's just as big a share of the electorate who'd sooner vote for a colony of pond-dwelling slime mold. So it comes down to what's changed in VA in the intervening years, and I like the chances of whoever runs against him.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

[ Parent ]
I'd bet
that there are more more people, especially blacks, that are anxious or will become anxious to vote against him than there are people who are excited to vote for him.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
I agree...
And I certainly think name recognition won't be a problem for Perriello by next November, if he runs. He'll probably have spent the night in every county and independent city in Virginia by then.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
I agree that Allen's ceiling is probably around 48-49%
The thing is, under the right third-party circumstances, he could perhaps still win with that. My hunch is Allen will Dino Rossi his way to a loss here. His floor is probably 45%, but his ceiling isn't a whole lot higher than that. He's just too well-known to have a shot at winning many Dems or moderates.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
The question is,
does he risk alienating even a slight portion of his base if he wins the nomination? He could pull out a solid win if he gets enough Independent support, but if he runs very far to the right and it's not a very Republican year, he probably won't get it. I'd like to think the Teabaggers aren't addled enough to mind a slight rhetorical deviation, but I doubt that's correct. And if he can't do that, he gives a pretty big opening to the Democratic candidate to simply say that he'll work on "bipartisan compromises" to reduce the deficit and create jobs, or something like that, which will help him scoop up a few non-base Republican voters.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
internals
The age breakdown was 9% 18-29, 27% 30-44, 41% 45-64, 22% 65+.
The 08 exit poll was 21% 18-29, 30% 30-44, 38% 45-64, 11% 65+.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/20...

Imposing the 08 age distribution on the new poll result probably adds a point or two to the Dem, since 18-29s went 60-39 for Obama whereas 65+s went 53-46 for McCain.

41, Ind, CA-05


[ Parent ]
Perhaps
Expecting a '08 voter districution by age is unrealistic (though what it will be is anyone's guess, and certainly beyond my prognostication abilities).

Along with that, the data here shows a somewhat closer election among those age groups than the 60-39 Obama split among younger voters and 53-46 McCain split among older voters.

Kaine-Allen-Undecided only
Age
18 to 29
48-41-11

30 to 45
50-44-6

46 to 65
47-46-7

Older than 65
43-53-3

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
I can believe a duplicate '08 D turnout
the unknown is whether '12 R turnout will be "depressed" like '08 or "enhanced" in a Presidential year version of '10.

[ Parent ]
Why do these people talk like this?
This seems to me to be the problem with having your entire leadership come from safe districts/safe states; no compulsion to actually even pretend like you care about compromise (publicly, at least).

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo...

(Click on the CBN link if you want to see the full transcript of his remarks, the interview).

20, Democrat, Male, MI-06 (Home), MI-02 (College)


Who was the last party leader to come from a non-safe seat in the house?
I'm thinking Tom Foley?

Male, VA-08

[ Parent ]
Hastert
He never had any trouble, but his seat went Dem after he retired.

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
A better question is,
when's the last time someone like Boehner had a competitive race? I can't imagine his district is very swingy now, but if there's even the slightest chance that he could be vulnerable, it'd be worth giving him a scare. Ryan and Cantor are almost certainly easier targets--Ryan in particular--but imagine what a blow it'd be to Republicans to take down their leader or even come close. Hell, just find some reasonable person who will campaign non stop with "Where's Johnny?" signs to at least keep it interesting. Boehner probably hasn't had to campaign in years, so he could be caught off guard.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
So, here's a couple of questions for you...
Boehner has never won this district by less than 60 percent of the vote, going back to 1990. The district has a PVI of R+14. (Hastert's district, in contrast, was R+5 when it was lost). Why would you think anyone would consider this sort of suicidal run? Why would the Democrats waste time trying to talk someone into it? Are you maybe thinking Boehner will get redistricting into an easier district? Or there's some self-funder who has never appeared before would be recruitable if only the Dems made an effort (although why wouldnt this person have shown up before)? Or maybe that the Dems should put money into this district (because apparently they will have unlimited money to spend in 2010) rather than a district that is winnable.

It doesn't matter whether you catch Boehner off guard. This district is not winnable as it is right now period.

Your on much safer ground with Ryan and Cantor. Hell, with the former, I'd support Dems putting money into the race.  


[ Parent ]
I don't expect them to target Boehner.
As I said before, Ryan and Cantor are almost certainly better targets--as in, unless Boehner is caught up in some huge scandal or ends up feeling the heat for some reason. I'm well aware that the district is crafted for someone like him and won't be changed dramatically. I was, quite honestly, joking about the possibility of taking him on.

Kind of, anyway. If there was some reason that the race might be competitive because of previously absent characteristic showing up in new Democratic candidate--the ability to self-fund, for instance--it might make sense for the Democrats to focus on the race, perhaps with a visit from someone famous. Otherwise, no, they shouldn't do much of anything that requires a diversion of resources away from more winnable races. What they could do--what maybe they haven't done in the past--is to do a Chris Murphy/Tom Perriello-type deal of campaigning non-stop and visiting every inch of the district. The candidate probably wouldn't win under anything but extraordinary circumstances, but perhaps they'd give him a scare. And that, for any number of reasons, is something worth doing.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
And ratings have been disabled for that "Stand with Scott Walker" video on YouTube SSP linked to on Twitter,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

20, Democrat, Male, MI-06 (Home), MI-02 (College)

Scott Walker
PPP's today's poll shows that Walker is merely slightly unpopular, no terrible numbers, at numbers that he needs another few points in popularity to win reelection, he's in normal popularity territory for a governor in a budget fight. http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8

That's a pretty rosy picture you're painting
I feel like I should sit down and grab a glass of water after the spin-work you gave us there.

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

[ Parent ]
LOL, that's the most desperate spin I've seen by a Republican here......
What's telling about this whole saga in Wisconsin is that Walker hasn't really done anything "wrong" politically in the way of "missteps."  He just gambled that the pubic would either support him or not care about this, and in any case be pissed off at Dem state Senators for skipping town.  And on the surface, that wouldn't appear such a bad bet.  I, personally, wouldn't have expected this to play so favorably to our side.

So the fact that Walker and his position are consistently unpopular in poll after poll is really striking.

Josh Marshall at TPM had a great commentary on this a few days ago where he pointed out that Walker could have come out on top politically had he just been willing to cut a deal at the outset.  He could've gotten much of what he wanted, perhaps almost everything, and still looked good with a chance to make Dems look bad.  But Walker is an asshole and a hard right demagogue, so he would have none of that.

I think the massive and sustained protests actually are having a big effect in public opinion on this, too.  There is something personal and heartfelt about massive demonstrations over a state-level issue in state capital.  I think it hits home with people, people who don't care about politics, and touches them emotionally in a way that a protest on the National Mall never can anymore.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
He's now less popular in Wisconsin than President Obama is nationwide...
So, can we drop the phony narrative about America "turning against" the president, how American voters "don't want" a liberal president?

I mean, seriously, if you're going to argue Gov. Walker is well-positioned for reelection, we might as well assume President Obama has already won a second term.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native


[ Parent ]
No, we cannot
"drop the phony narrative about America 'turning against' the president, how American voters 'don't want' a liberal president." What you don't realize is that Democratic victories are almost always an accident, or the result of intense voter fraud, outside of urban ghettoes or hippy hellholes. Therefore, the public doesn't want Democratic ideas enacted, which is why Democrats must continue to bow towards Republicans no matter how many votes their presidential candidates win or how large their margins in congress are.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
These aren't great numbers for Walker, either
Shows he is losing independents and even some Republicans. Not exactly a rousing endorsement from the electorate.  

[ Parent ]
Yeah
My point only was that the narrative being pushed here that Walker's approvals are tanking and he's on track to lose reelection and be recalled, his approval dropped, but about 20 points higher than Doyle's approval.

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8

[ Parent ]
You really post some cool nonsense
You take Doyle's worst approval moment... where he was MORE popular than Jan Brewer and Deval Patrick(!)... from his entire first term, and compare it to a guy who manages to have gone underwater in two months?

What was Doyle's approval after two months?  THAT is what you should be looking at.  

If Walker tracks similarly to the vast majority of politicians in bad times, his approvals will only go down...
or like Johnny Cash sang, "down down down and the flames went higher."


[ Parent ]
RI-Pres: Obama at 53/41 approval, up 17, 25, 33, 41 over Mitt, Huck, Newt, Palin
http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

I guess it's notable that Huckabee does better than McCain did (-28).

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


Yawn
Approval is 53-39 according to the pdf. Not that it matters in the slightest but we don't want PPP slipping into Rasmussen "Marcus Rubio" territory.

[ Parent ]
The numbers against Palin are hilarious
I don't care how blue Rhode Island is, losing by 41 points and not being able to garner a fourth of the state's voters is ludicrous.

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

[ Parent ]
LOL


NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan

One commenter there
claims to be Kaine himself.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Epic Fail! You gotta see this
I know it's OT, but it's so funny.
http://politicalwire.com/archi...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


VT Senate
I only see salmon running if he's either playing terrible 3 dimensional checkers, or great 3 dimensional chess.  

It's a given that he can't win, between the fact that he'd be running against Bernie, he's had erratic behavior (DUI, facebook troll fights) and its Vermont.  there's only two ways he'd want to run.

one, the checkers analogy, he's deluded.  His ego is so enormous, he has somehow convinced himself that he could defeat one of Vermont's most popular politicians in a presidential year.

Two, the chess analogy, he doesn't want to win.  What he wants is to go against fillibernie, spout a bunch of tea party rhetoric, become a christine o'donnell and get a cushy Fox News gig.  the campaign, doomed from the beginning, is merely a means to an end.

 

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.


Can it be both?
Perhaps he figured that his future was kind of limited as a Democrat, so why not become a Republican and hope that lightening strikes? The worst that happens is that he gets blown out of the water. But if he does better than expected, he could run for some other office in the future. And if does go down in flames, there's always Fox News, or something similar, as you said.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Looks like this one is off
Salmon said in an e-mail to the Burlington Free Press that his press conference on Thursday isn't likely to happen, but that he does feel bound by his statement that he would announce his plans by the 5th.  Maybe he's finally chickening out.

Barry Mayor Thom Lauzon made some rumblings about this race the other day though, and Jim Douglas is sounding at least aware of it - Green Mountain Daily has much more

Male, 19, VT-AL (home), CT-03 (college)


[ Parent ]
says he's done to 10% sure he'll run
washington might be a "waste of his talents".  

http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.


[ Parent ]
Any update about the filing deadline in MS?
I can't seem to find a candidates list on the website.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

Primary candidates file with the state parties
I found lists from a news site:

http://wlox.images.worldnow.co...
http://wlox.images.worldnow.co...

Unfortunately, the Dem list doesn't have the state legislative candidates, and the party website isn't updated yet. But Democrats ended up leaving three statewide races unopposed: Lt. Governor, Secretary of State, and State Auditor.


[ Parent ]
You posted legislative candidates (how much the Democrats had managed to fill)
earlier. Where'd you find that?

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
The party website, which still hasn't been updated since last Friday:
[ Parent ]
This is under the radar even for SSP
but there was a big upset for Tampa mayor today.  Four-time former mayor and Zell Miller-style fake Democrat Dick Greco finished third and missed the runoff to Republican County Commissioner Rose Ferlita and former Democratic City Councilor Bob Buckhorn (who is known for his crusade a few years ago against lap dancing).  

Greco ran an issueless, entitled campaign, with really bizarre, enigmatic advertisments with a creepy orange hand against a black background with simply the word "Greco" in orange letters underneath.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


So what happens with the general?


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Hard to predict.
I expect Ferlita to get most of the Greco votes, and Buckhorn to get most of the votes for fourth and fifth place finishers Ed Turanchik and Tom Scott, who are more traditional, party line Democrats.  Just adding up those vote totals gets to a very close race.

If the polls are to be believed, Buckhorn really surged at the end, which may bode well for him.  On the other hand, Ferlita has been better at fundraising.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


[ Parent ]
I just hope
Greco endorses Buckhorn.  Even thoguh he got third place, he didn't lose that badly.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
He was within 1% of Buckhorn.
I expect Greco to endorse the Republican.  He endorsed George W. Bush twice.  It's like clockwork.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
If i remember correctly
Ferlita is considered a moderate. What about Buckhorn?

[ Parent ]
Buckhorn
is a strange bird.  He has gone after adult entertainment, prostitution, and raves, so he has a little bit of an element of the Town Council in Footloose.

At the same time, he has an aggressive plan to rework business regulations and push for economic development program, at a time when a lot of local politicians are in a budget slashing mind-set.

He really surged at the end.  

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


[ Parent ]
Special elections
GOP holds ME HD-11 http://new.bangordailynews.com...
Dems hold FL SD-33 http://www.miamiherald.com/201...
Don't have info on MS special.

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8

Anyway, McClure, Walls and Simmons are all Dems


22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8

[ Parent ]
Ken Strasma and microtargeting
I'm not sure why you went with the scare quotes and the "some dude" title for Ken Strasma, he was the pioneer of microtargeting models on the Democratic side and Obama's targeting director in '08.

In any case, now that the DNC has made a huge investment in an in-house targeting department, it should be pretty clear that microtargeting as an element of political strategy is here to stay.



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