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Another 8-0 Maryland

by: shocky27

Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 8:35 PM EST


Here is my take on an 8-0 Maryland. I must thank abgin for this incredible inspiration of using stripe-style gerrymandering (the famous map he did of NY). I employed this technique in reverse - I asked myself, how can I link all of these heavy Dem areas to Republican areas to dilute their votes? I thought of where their votes are concentrated, and the biggest source is Northern Maryland and the Baltimore Suburbs.

So, I set out to link Dem heavy areas to Republican areas in Northern Maryland, and it worked well. The map is not too bad looking, although Ruppersberger and Sarbanes would have trouble fitting into this map, but they can move. Hoyer and Van Hollen would have decent district and maintain a lot of their territory. Barlett and Harris are completely drawn out, and I managed to make two VRA districts that are 51% black, while they take in as many heavy R precincts as possible in Northern Maryland the Baltimore Suburbs so they can leave liberal white areas and other AA areas to shore up other districts.

I wanted the Obama-McCain lean to be roughly 60%-40%, and I did well in that regard, I think only one is 57% Obama and the rest are over 58% Obama, so all districts are around D+5 to D+8, with the VRA districts being more Dem heavy. The only district I think that would be in trouble would be the Eastern Shore based one, but if Kratovil runs, it is his. So, here you go!

shocky27 :: Another 8-0 Maryland
Below is the state as a whole. The CDs aren't numbered well on my map, since I ended up editing a lot, so I'll just leave the CD numbers off the map and make different numbers.

CD1 in Perriwinkle: Panhandle. Hagerstown, Frederick, Potomac - This district is similar to the ones others have posted to make this district less friendly to Barlett (currently the 6th.) There is no way he would win this district. This has much of Van Hollen's 8th district, so I would assume he would run here. If he doesn't live here, the move isn't far. (Pictures are below)

Obama:59% McCain:40%

White:70% Black:10% Asian:9% Hispanic:8%

CD2 in Grey: Silver Spring and DC burbs extending to Northern Border - The worst thing about this district is that there seems to be no clear incumbent here. Cummings would move to a VRA district, Van Hollen would want the 1st (he could take this if he wants too I guess, his choice) so I suppose this would be a new Democratic Representative. Bartlett could try running here, but I doubt he'd come close. Fairly neat looking district.

Obama:60% McCain:38%

White:61% Black:13% Asian:8% Hispanic:16%

CD3 in Dark Green: College Park, Columbia and the Northern Border - Takes in heavily Dem areas in the DC burbs, through Columbia and then sucks up heavily R areas up north on the border. This district also presents a huge problem for current reps. I guess Ruppersberger may be willing to make the move... Cummings again wouldn't be here, and there really is no one else who I can see running here.

Obama:59% McCain:39%

White:55% Black:24% Asian:8% Hispanic:11%

CD4 in Green: Eastern DC suburbs stretching to Baltimore Suburbs - The challenge I had with this map in general was diluting suburban Baltimore while keeping two majority black districts. This was one part in solving that problem. I was able to keep this 51% AA while stretching it from heavily AA precincts outside of DC to heavily Republican areas South and East of Baltimore City.  This district does take a lot of the AA territory from Donna Edwards current district, MD-4, so she should run here and be safe.

Obama:72% McCain:27%

White:41% Black:51% Asian:2% Hispanic:5%

CD5 in Purple: Southern Maryland to Annapolis- This district pretty much drew itself after the two black majority districts were drawn. I could take remaining AA precincts outside of DC, pull them in with rural more R leaning areas in Southern Maryland, then bring them to Annapolis naturally. Steny Hoyer would have a lot familiar territory, but now he gets Annapolis and AA areas outside of DC instead of areas NE of DC. Still should be a fairly easy hold for him.

Obama:60% McCain:39%

White:62% Black:30% Asian:3% Hispanic:4%

CD6 in Yellow: Northern Baltimore, Baltimore Suburbs, down to liberal areas northeast of DC- One of the nastier districts, this links two areas of Dem strength leftover from other districts - liberal areas between DC and Baltimore, and northern parts of Baltimore itself. I was able to perfectly combine these, while incorporating Baltimore burbs to dilute Republican votes while keeping this district solidly Dem leaning. Maybe Sarbanes would move to this district? Or Ruppersberger? Those two really are the odd men out in general. since their current districts are disgusting. If they want their jobs with this map, they need to move.

Obama:58% McCain:40%

White:63% Black:26% Asian:6% Hispanic:4%

CD7 in Blue: Western Baltimore City, Baltimore Burbs and Rural areas in Northern Maryland. - I had a hard time trying to keep this at 51% black while at the same time sucking up as much anti-Obama votes as possible. To do this I had to find the anti-Obama votes (much like abgin did in NY, where he drew all districts to NYC to find Dem votes.) Once I adopted that strategy, I was able to do the wrap-around kind of districts near Baltimore for CD6 and CD7 in my map. This naturally gave way to making all districts have a north-south orientation in order to dilute Republican strength in Rural North Maryland. Cummings keeps a lot of his old territory in Baltimore, so this district would fit him nicely.

Obama:71% McCain:27%

White:42% Black:51% Asian:3% Hispanic:3%

CD8 in Red: Eastern Shore stretching to Baltimore City- I'm sorry I divided you into 4 pieces, Baltimore. But Kratovil would love this district. It is fairly Democratic, even someone more liberal than Kratovil can win here. But this would be a perfect fit for him. Harris would never win. I did use a tiny, TINY bit of water contiguity near Perryville where the shore meets to mainland in a U-shape (you can kinda see it, its not too bad.) I did this to keep the district from having to take in a couple R-heavy precincts, and the district honestly doesn't look any worse than any MD district currently.

Obama:57% McCain:42%

White:66% Black:27% Asian:2% Hispanic:3%

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Good overall, but a few problems
Donna Edwards lives in Fort Washington, which is in your 5th district. She might try to move to the new 4th, but she might have some problems there. First of all, many of the voters there would not know her. Second of all, the voters in SE Baltimore county are not Republicans but blue-collar Reagan Democrats who vote increasingly vote Republican at a national level but still are registered as Democrats. This poses a problem for Edwards in that she would have these people in the Democratic primary, and they are definitely not voting for her. She might still win the primary, but I think she would definitely not like this district.

Then we get to Ruppersberger and Sarbanes. Ruppersberger is much more of a Baltimore County politician, so he would probably run in your 6th. I'm getting the idea from drawing these maps (I'll have a couple more up soon) that Sarbanes would greatly benefit from a move to Howard County, especially with the new census results that were just released. I usually try to give him the district that stretches out of Baltimore county into Howard and the DC burbs, as some commenters on here have said he has more statewide ambitions than Ruppersberger (which makes sense to me). Either way, I think both (especially Ruppersberger) would not like this map.

One thing I do like is that you managed to keep the Eastern Shore together. Other 8-0 maps that I have seen split the shore up, which I think is not politically feasible at all. But I believe that it is possible to keep the shore together while drawing a map that the incumbents would like more.

Male, VA-08


I did not know this
Im sure she can survive the primary with such high African American totals... the amount of blacks voting in the primary should be at least 60% don't you think? And she'll have no problem in the general. Her problems would be nowhere near that of Sarbanes or Ruppersberger so I don;t think she has much room to complain :)

21, Male, Gay, Dem, Born: AR-04 ;  Current Residence: FL-02

[ Parent ]
Also a question
If you made a map, how would you solve the problem of Sarbanes and Ruppersberger? Their districts right now are so awful, and I didn't even realize how bad they were until I looked. They both seem far worse than any district I drew.

Also, do you know where the residency is for each of the incumbents? I really think we should make some kind of giant post/database that would have the map for each state with its US CDs and a star or something indicating the place of residency for every incumbent, their name and the number of the district with a list of the largest population centers on the side. Maybe I'll work on that after redistricting.

21, Male, Gay, Dem, Born: AR-04 ;  Current Residence: FL-02


[ Parent ]
Residences
MD Residences:
Both Harris (R-1st) and Ruppersburger (D-2nd) live in Cockeysville, which is in north-central Baltimore County.
Frank Kratovil lives on Kent Island in Queen Anne's County..but is originally from Lanham in central Prince George's County.  

Sarbanes (D-3rd) lives in Towson, in Baltimore County immediately north of Baltimore City. Not sure what precinct, but given that he's a Senator's son and a partner in a law firm I doubt he lives in the eastern part of Towson.

Edwards (D-4th) lives in Ft. Washington, in southern Prince George's along the Potomac.

Hoyer (D-5th) lives in Mechanicsville in St. Mary's County but is originally from Capitol Heights in Prince George's County.    

I think Bartlett (R-6th) lives in the City of Frederick.

Cummings (D-7th) lives in Baltimore City, not totally sure where. He's a product of West Baltimore.

Van Hollen (D-8th) lives in Kensington in Montgomery County.  

 

36, M, Democrat, MD-03


[ Parent ]
Thank you :)
I think i could change the lines to include edwards into the district i drew for her...

Ruppersberger and Sarbanes though. ugh. Major pains

21, Male, Gay, Dem, Born: AR-04 ;  Current Residence: FL-02


[ Parent ]
Sarbanes & Cummings
Sarbanes - far western part of Towson, I think (?) (like you guessed !)

Cummings - Reservoir Hill (???) -- again, I think you're right -- that's more west than east Balto.

didn't know re. Kratovil originally from Lanham -- if so, then maybe good idea to do E. Shore combined w/ central/eastern PG district ...


[ Parent ]
Kratovil Sr.
Kratovil's father--a close friend of Steny Hoyer, BTW--was the judge who ordered the desegregation of the P.G. County swimming pools in the 1960s.

[ Parent ]
Its a new record for Swingstate
everyone else has been defended.  Kudos on this map

1. Okay some have had Montgomery county split three times.

2. Others have split Prince George's county four times (not easy to do)

3. One brave soul has split the City of Baltimore 4 times (quite a feat)

4. But this map actually splits Baltimore County into five  seperate congressional districts.

Surely this combination of net splits have never been done here?  

Congrats


PG county
technically is split into 5. A small part of the grey district runs into it in the corner. :)

21, Male, Gay, Dem, Born: AR-04 ;  Current Residence: FL-02

[ Parent ]
Thanks for the note
Truely amazed at what technology can do.

[ Parent ]
Baltimore County is already split in 5
but this map splits Harford in 5

26, male, Dem, NJ-12

[ Parent ]
Net Splits
Splitting big counties in and of itself isn't really a big deal in Maryland, especially ones that look so different from one end to the other. Each of these counties has several distinct communities of interest.  

Carving up a smaller county could be more of an issue.

The current map is really ugly but not because it splits up counties, but because it does things like draw absurd lines so that the 2nd and 3rd can trade Pikesville for Parkville.  (This was done so that the 2nd had another source of Democratic votes, as Pikesville is much more reliable for Dems.)

36, M, Democrat, MD-03


[ Parent ]
The few remarks
that I have read in the Maryland press indicates that democratic leadership wants to smooth out current lines.

What that exactly means is unclear.  In redistricting matters its almost always what is unsaid that is important.  For instance Gov. G. never came out and said "Cardin will get a lot of new area and will not like his new district lines".  That sort of stuff happens but you don't read about it in the press at least through direct quotes.

I suspect that the 6 democratic incumbents in Maryland will be happy with their lines and beyond that I think everything is up for grabs in MD.


[ Parent ]
The New Lines
I have yet to see a map designed to be 8-0 that wouldn't seriously rock the boat in terms of who goes where.

There will probably be some shifting just because the population trends have been in the direction of the DC suburbs and Southern Maryland and away from Baltimore. So one or more incumbents are going to see their territory moved south/west.

That might be an easier sell on people looking to eventually run for Senate and/or Governor. The 2006 primaries were a big wake up call for Baltimore-area pols of all stripes.



36, M, Democrat, MD-03


[ Parent ]
Wow
I like the 51% Black / 59% Obama district. Some pretty conservative whites in the Baltimore suburbs there...

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

I've messed around with MD
a lot and never gotten anything like that. Seriously impressive.  

[ Parent ]
whoa whoa
Really sorry guys, that was a type. That district is 71%. Sorry!

That would be impressive though

21, Male, Gay, Dem, Born: AR-04 ;  Current Residence: FL-02


[ Parent ]
Typo*
n/m

21, Male, Gay, Dem, Born: AR-04 ;  Current Residence: FL-02

[ Parent ]
That makes sense!
I've actually gotten down to just below 70%  

[ Parent ]
a State Assembly District in the Eastern Shore
might be 51% black, 59% Obama

26, male, Dem, NJ-12

[ Parent ]
51% Black, 62% Obama
I've been fooling around with making an MD map for a while, and this is really helpful for an 8-0 map, even though it would probably never happen.

Photobucket

26, Male, Democrat, VA-08


[ Parent ]
It is very interesting

If I'm not wrong it would be your Gray district.

Why not? I would think about it.


[ Parent ]
Quite a feat!
I would personally change these lines a bit though *moving the grey district further west to try to make room for other district to come dilute Republican votes) The way this map is built, though, I dont know if it allows for all the other counties to be at least D+4 or D+5.

Let me know how it goes!

21, Male, Gay, Dem, Born: AR-04 ;  Current Residence: FL-02


[ Parent ]
wow
part of me really wants to do that to Carroll County to punish them for being so Republican

26, male, Dem, NJ-12

[ Parent ]
I have a positive opinion about the map, it is very interesting

The Eastern shore united in a D+4 it is surely the most interesting part of the map.

It would be not very difficult to include D Edwards in her district. This is not a big trouble.


Eastern Shore
That needed to be a main goal of this map. R+3 to D+1 just isn't enough in another wave year, or if Kratovil decided not to run.

The way to do this was not to incorporate far northeastern MD, those are extremely Republican areas, and also not to run the district along the Bay to the east of Baltimore like I have seen in other maps.

When you run the district along the Bay (I did this initially) those counties are fairly populated, and extremely Rebpulican. By moving the arm that extends from the Eastern Shore to Baltimore City inland, not only were those counties more Obama friendly (some were outright 55% Obama), a lot of them were less populous, leaving room to pick up more 97%-99% Obama district in Balitmore City.

21, Male, Gay, Dem, Born: AR-04 ;  Current Residence: FL-02


[ Parent ]
I know these are fun to do
and that people put up crazy maps all the time. I love looking at them and doing some myself.

But I'm wondering if everyone doing these 8-0 maps of MD is actually serious about seeing something like this put into place? Because if you ask me having an actual map like this would be terrible if you think about it from an actual voter representation point of view.

Just about every one of them pack inner city Baltimore with the whole Eastern Shore. I used to live in MD. How the hell is someone supposed to represent working class Baltimore blacks and whites, suburban white collar workers, farmers on the Eastern Shore and the fishermen and tourist industry in Ocean City? Or what do people in the Western/Northern MD mountains and rural areas have in common with people in Bethesda and Silver Spring or PG County?

These definitely aren't "communities of interest" by any stretch of the imagination and it would be only detrimental to the people of Maryland to implement something like that to gain a partisan political advantage.


To an extent
I agree that these maps running the rural Panhandle into the DC suburbs, and combining the Eastern shore with Baltimore City, are not in the spirit of making "communities of interest".  I've seen plenty of maps of other states that are also very "creative" when it comes to how disparate communities are thrown together for political gain.

Still, what ends up happening if we go purely for compactness and getting like-minded communities in their own districts (this applies in most states), is that we get a handful of 70-90% Democratic districts in the cities, and then a whole bunch of 55-65% Republican districts elsewhere.  It's truly unfair and you will see states that are evenly divided statewide sending overwhelming Republican delegations to Congress.  To even the odds a bit, a bit of creative map-drawing must be undertaken.

Now, personally I think the old Maryland map that gave us this 6-2 delegation was pretty advantageous for us without going too crazy.  So while I might think we could just stop there and consider it a job well done, I know Republicans are going to aggressively move in other states to draw as many Democrats out of districts as they can.  Unless we get some kind of national cease fire on gerrymanders, we're in no position to set down our weapons first.


[ Parent ]
And let me add
perhaps after enough of these ridiculous maps are implemented (from both sides) the people will finally decide they've had enough and national redistricting reform will become a potent issue.

[ Parent ]
you're right!
Democrats should make clean and beautiful maps in Maryland and just sit back and smile as Republicans gerrymander the living daylights out of PA, OH, and TX.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Sarbanes needs to move to Howard County
It would not only make things easier for everyone, it would make his commute easier.

8-0
just won't happen.  What is much more likely to happen is a Democratic district 1 and an even more Republican district 6.

www.trublupolitics.com

You said you know Kratovil
Is he seriously considering running in an improved MD-1?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
yes he is
But I think there is a good chance there would be a contested primary if the district becomes favorable for a Democratic candidate.

www.trublupolitics.com

[ Parent ]

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