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SSP Daily Digest: 2/9

by: Crisitunity

Wed Feb 09, 2011 at 3:30 PM EST


FL-Sen: Meg Whitman seems like a strange place to start talking about the Florida Senate race, but hear me out. She's in the news today for the outrageously large sums of money she paid to her top campaign staff (although, to be fair, in her particular frame of reference, I'm sure those seemed like outrageously small sums of money), including $948K paid to her campaign manager, Jill Hasner. If that name sounds vaguely familiar, she's the wife of former Florida state House majority leader Adam Hasner, currently making trips to DC to lay groundwork for a run in the GOP primary. If that $948K gets plowed straight into Hasner's bid, that's a pretty significant nut to start out with. Money is also the reason you keep hearing Rep. Vern Buchanan's name associated with this race, even if he hasn't said anything publicly indicating his interest for 2012; he has $956K in his House account, second most of all the Florida House delegation, which would give him a head start if he transferred that over to a Senate bid.

MA-Sen: Not content to rest on his already-tops-in-the-2012-class $7 million cash stash, Scott Brown has set a fundraising target of $25 million for his Senate race. Whether he actually can hit that is an open question, but the fact that he can even credibly lay down a marker like this is a reminder that this race is no gimmee for the Dems. Also, here's a neat story that's more about the meta of reporting on campaigns in their formative stages, and how, in the absence of useful information, we're all pretty much just talking in circles about rumors that quickly become unclear where they started. It's a piece from a central Massachusetts blog that investigates where the heck the idea of Fitchburg mayor Lisa Wong running for Senate came from and how that bubbled up to the national level, despite her having done nothing to indicate any interest in the race... and today, closing the circle of meta, Politico, the main purveyor of such campaign-rumor grist, reported on the story. I don't know whether to be ashamed or pleased that Swing State Project is cited as one of the key players in this particular game of telephone; either way, clearly we've hit the big time.

MI-Sen: Buried in a Roll Call article that does a lot of pointless Debbie Stabenow/Russ Feingold comparing are two names from potential GOP candidates I'd never heard of, although, without knowing more about their self-financing abilities, they seem to be at the Some Dude end of the spectrum. They cite businessman Al Pease, and former juvenile court judge Randy Hekman (who seems to be working a social con angle).

NE-Sen: Ben Nelson's most recent statement on the Senate race was only that he was "leaning toward" another run, which isn't very confidence-inspiring considering that he'd previously said that he was running. But here's a more clear tell that he is running; he just re-hired his 2006 CM, Paul Johnson, as campaign manager.

NJ-Sen, NJ-Gov: Quinnipiac is out with some New Jersey numbers, although it's approvals only... and, in what seems like an unusual departure from tradition, they actually find New Jerseyites, dare I say, liking their politicians?!? Is the giant nationwide wave of bile actually starting to ebb as the economy improves? At any rate, Bob Menendez (44/36), Frank Lautenberg (45/40), and Chris Christie (52/40) all sport positive approvals.

SC-Sen: PPP fleshes out the 2014 Lindsey Graham situation with some more detailed numbers among Republicans, which they already hinted at with how his approvals broke down in their general electorate sample. His approvals among that group are 42/40, but he also has re-elects of only 37/52. He beats ex-Gov. Mark Sanford easily in a hypothetical primary (52-34), but against a non-Appalachian-Trail-hiking opponent, Rep. Joe Wilson, he trails 43-41.

NC-Gov: It hadn't occurred to me that Republican former Charlotte mayor Pat McCrory might not seek a rematch against Bev Perdue in next year's gubernatorial race; when asked about whether he'd run at an appearance Friday, his answer was just "I hope to."

CA-36: Los Angeles city councilor Janice Hahn rolled out more endorsements today, most notably former NBA player Magic Johnson, whom I understand may have some goodwill of some sort in the LA area. She also boasts the endorsement of Assemblyman Warren Furutani (a rumored candidate for a day or two) and ex-Asm. George Nakano, as well as a slew of other city councilors in LA and its southern suburbs. The big question is whether Hahn will get the endorsement of Jane Harman herself; recall that Hahn was Harman's guest at the State of the Union last month, for what that's worth. There's also one other GOPer to add to the list: Redondo Beach city attorney Mike Webb.

IN-06: With Mike Pence likely to run for Governor and leaving behind an open red district, look for this crowd to grow. Republican Henry County Councilor Nate LaMar is now actively telling local party chairs that he intends to run.

NY-26: I'd file this more under general "schadenfreude" than a definite Congressional career-killer, but this little indiscretion can't make things any better for sophomore GOP Rep. (and possible redistricting truncation victim) Chris Lee.

Chicago mayor: The big story here may not be that Rahm Emanuel keeps gaining in the polls -- he's at 54% in the new poll from Richard Day Research, taken for ABC-7, which is enough to avoid a runoff -- but that Carol Mosely Braun is in complete free-fall. In the wake of calling a minor opponent in the race a crackhead and various other lesser gaffes, she's down to 6%! While there aren't trendlines from this pollster, based on where other polls have been, Emanuel seems to be the main beneficiary of this flight, as Gery Chico and Miguel del Valle are still hanging far back, at 14 and 8 respectively.

Votes: Here's an interesting bit of left/right convergence against the middle, on one of those rare common-ground issues: the Patriot Act. The House failed to renew the Patriot Act by a 277-147 margin, with 26 GOP nays joining 122 Dems. (For some reason, the leadership was doing this under suspension of rules, which means they needed 2/3rds to pass it. It looks like they'll simply do it again and pass it under normal rules.) Knee-jerk pundits have been presenting this as a triumph of the tea partiers newly elected to Congress, but a more detailed look between the lines finds less than half of the Tea Party Caucus voting against it, and only eight of the GOP freshmen voting against it. Interestingly, two GOP House members more on the establishment end of things who are likely to be running for Senate in 2012, Connie Mack IV and Dean Heller, voted against it, showing the amazing progress in the Patriot Act's transition from legislative slam-dunk ten years ago to a potential electoral liability now.

VRA: The Dept. of Justice seems to have kicked things into high gear with redistricting and off-year elections approaching. They just granted VRA preclearance to California to proceed with its nonpartisan citizen redistricting panels (not a controversial proposal, certainly, but still requiring preclearance because of four California counties), and to Louisiana to restore its jungle-style primary at the federal level in addition to the state level.

Voter suppression: Welcome Tennessee to the growing club of states with Republican-controlled legislatures who are getting on the bandwagon of requiring voter IDs. The proposal cleared a state Senate committee yesterday.

Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 2/9
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Maryland redistricting data
The Census just released the PL 94-171 summary files for Maryland.  According to the Washington Post, the big population gains were in the D.C. suburbs, with Baltimore City losing population.

I'll leave the more detailed analysis to people that have had more luck opening the Census files than I have.

23, male, Democrat, IA-02 (previously CA-26, PA-06, CA-06)


More like exurbs than suburbs
Howard & Frederick grew the most (%-wise), along with Southern Maryland. Wicomico & Queen Ann & Cecil county gained too, but the populations in those areas is so small I don't think it matters much.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
Absolute Numbers Matter More
A county that grows from 350K to 400K has a much lower percentage gain than a county that goes from 30K to 60K, but the redistricting impact of the former county's growth is more substantial.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

[ Parent ]
Possible Implications
I haven't looked at the raw data yet; I'm going by what the Washington Post and Baltimore Sun had to say so far.

MD-05 is probably going to have to shrink the most. It might be very tough for Hoyer to keep NASA Greenbelt and all of Southern Maryland if all three of those counties (Charles and St. Mary's were apparently around 20% growth) grew that much.

This would actually come in handy for all us doing those MD diaries since it would create more available space in the northern half of Prince George's County.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03


[ Parent ]
I think I'm doing this right
District Representative Population Deviation
MD-01 Harris 744,275 22,581
MD-02 Ruppersberger 700,893 (20,801)
MD-03 Sarbanes 719,856 (1,838)
MD-04 Edwards 714,316 (7,378)
MD-05 Hoyer 767,369 45,675
MD-06 Bartlett 738,943 17,249
MD-07 Cummings 659,776 (61,918)
MD-08 Van Hollen 728,124 6,430
Total: 5,773,552


23, male, Democrat, IA-02 (previously CA-26, PA-06, CA-06)

[ Parent ]
Thank You
Hmm..it hurts that the two districts consisting mostly of territory no Democrat would want both have to shed people and that Cummings' district has to add so many people.

But that's really not a major thing in the final analysis.  For Democrats it's all about freeing up surplus votes in the DC suburbs and these numbers confirm that. MD-05 has to shed people and MD-08 can afford to shed Democrats.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03


[ Parent ]
So
Having toyed around with Maryland in the past, I know we can move some of MD-01 to MD-02, hopefully making MD-01 more competitive for Dems. Obviously, there are a ton of other redistricting moves you can make but that's a first step.

Can anyone update me on any important particulars of Maryland redistricting law? Right now I have two districts that cross the Chesapeake (MD-01 and MD-04) and I'd like to know if that's alright. Given how gerrymandered Maryland is, I expect it's a wide open ball game in terms of drawing lines.

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05


[ Parent ]
Free Ball AFAIK
The constraints are generally going to be cultural, not written in law.

I have a hard time thinking the Eastern Shore gets split up in any meaningful way, as it would open a can of worms for some Democratic legislators over there. This leads me to believe that they're going to cut out most of the non-Shore parts of the district and replace them with heavily Democratic areas instead.



36, M, Democrat, MD-03


[ Parent ]
Here's what I've got right now, for anyone curious.
All the PVIs are D+8 or higher except for MD-06, naturally.

Photobucket

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05


[ Parent ]
...Christopher Lee...
Do not want!

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

Damn
is he trying to outshine Aaron Shock for the most fittest GOP congressperson or something?

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Don't forget the recurring articles on Paul Ryan's workout routine!


Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Because if Rep. Lee is ...
... trying to outshine Aaron Schock for fittest congressperson...well, then, FAIL.

Also, if someone online tells you they're 39, it basically automatically means they're mid-40s, if not older... uh, not that I know from extensive personal experience or anything...

He is SO busted, though. The "I was hacked" excuse is contradicted by some of the metadata, and the lame flirtiness of the emails is so banal it can't be made up. Seriously. If a hacker was trying to destroy a Republican congressman, I could he could do a hell of a lot better than that.

However, I would like to congratulate Rep. Lee on having a photo in which a Republican congressman is half-naked and it didn't outright make me want to vomit. So, well done, Chris!   [for the record, no, I would not hit that]

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


[ Parent ]
Christopher Lee
Looked better as Francisco Scaramanga.

[ Parent ]
Yuk yuk yuk


Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
An assassin that's second to none. . .


[ Parent ]
The man with the golden...
...Congresscriter pin.

[ Parent ]
I haven't looked at the photo
But I guess the question is inevitable - does he have a third nipple?

[ Parent ]
Bing!
Chandler....

[ Parent ]
Fascinating anatomical titbit,
but the most useless piece of information l ever heard.

;-)


[ Parent ]
The real scandal is
He would rather people think he was a lobbyist than a Congressman?  Is the institution that unpopular, at long last?

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

[ Parent ]
MA-Sen
$25 million?! Jesus Christ. I'm guessing Scott Brown is trying to scare away Mike Capuano or something. Not surprising since most Massachusetts congressmen haven't run a real race (besides Bill Keating and Capuano) since forever.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

don't try to scare someone
who thinks throwing scalding coffee at someone in an argument is justifiable for human rights.  

http://politicalwire.com/archi...

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.


[ Parent ]
coffee cup
But he said a coffee cup.  Nothing about any coffee being in the cup.

[ Parent ]
I think that is substantially more violent
An earthenware coffee mug can seriously mess someone up. Liquid coffee might leave a little redness, but that's it.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


[ Parent ]
OK, you got me there.
(Though hot coffee would actually hurt you a lot more seriously.  It's boiling water being poured on you.) I'll admit that when I read this, I was assuming he meant a styrofoam cup.  But he didn't specify.

[ Parent ]
Hmm
Although it's too early to tell, I think Bob Massie could do it.  He's an outsider type with a long story of overcoming adversity (he was one of the first people infected by HIV, from a blood transfusion).  He became an anti-Apartheid activist.  He ran in 1994 in the Lt. Governor spot, but lost to the mighty Cellucci ticket.  Then, he became a successful businessman.

Now, all that remains is to see how he does as a campaigner and fundraiser.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
It's starting to sound as if
Deval Patrick is going to allow himself to get begged into running.  

Capuano and his chances are grossly overrated.  


[ Parent ]
Frank Luntz hosts a focus group of fail.
These are what he declares are likely attendees at the Iowa Caucuses.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


Wow!! These folks are the Democratic Party's Biggest Ally!!
I think there is a series of questions that need to be asked of every Republican running for President in 2012:

1 -- Do you believe President Obama is a sincere Christian?
2 -- Do you believe in human-caused global warming?
3 -- Do you believe in the scientific theory of evolution?

I'm sure we can come up with more, but start with those.  Answer them one way and you alienate your base voters (fools like this), and answer the other way, and kiss moderate suburban voters good bye!

I love how Frank Luntz (who I think is a reasonable guy) immediately is like "Oh shit -- I can't believe how insane these people are."


[ Parent ]
Republican
legislators Arizona are trying to pass a bill to "combat" Sharia Law and get this....Karma.

Prohibits courts from implementing, referring or incorporating or using "a tenet of any body of religious sectarian law" and specifically includes sharia law, canon law, halacha and karma.

http://gaveltogavel.us/site/20...

Someone wanna tell me how karma is threatening our society and how the hell could you ban something like that?

19, Male, Independent, CA-12


[ Parent ]
Well, if we continue the way we're going
a lot of people will come back as ants in the next life. ;-)

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
from a Strategic National poll
of likely Iowa Republican caucus-goers taken in January 2011:

Are science and the biblical story of creation in conflict?
Yes 42.20%
No 38.78%
Unsure 19.02%

Was the earth created in six days?
Yes 67.80%
No, it is much older 18.29%
Unsure 13.90%

Is the earth 10,000 years old?
Yes 45.37%
No, it's much older 31.71%
Unsure 22.93%

You read that right: Less than a third of the respondent pool is convinced that the earth is much more than 10,000 years old.  


[ Parent ]
Not suprising
I think you'd find similar results surveying Indiana Republicans.  Again, I think we need to do a better job of putting Republican candidates on the defensive in their primaries, and get them on the record with positions they can't easily wiggle out of when it comes to appealing to the middle in a general election.

[ Parent ]
Very entertaining
http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

http://www.latimes.com/news/po...

I'm sure these people were similarly deferential to Bush in regards to foreign policy.


[ Parent ]
There's another Gallup poll too
giving Obama generally good marks on the issue. I think 47% approve, 32% disapprove, which is actually the best score he receives on any of the ten issues on which he is polled.

You act like you seem surprised- but remember, Americans generally don't care about foreign policy and are default isolationists. Americans only really care if Americans are attacked in one way or another.

I'd actually say that foreign policy is the issue where there really is probably the biggest discrepancy between the NY-Wash corridor and the rest of the country.

WA-07, 34 years old


[ Parent ]
Not really surprised
Slightly relieved maybe.

[ Parent ]
IA-03
Boswell was one of the Democrats voting with most Republicans yesterday for the PATRIOT Act extension. I think it could become an issue during a 2012 Democratic primary; Boswell flip-flopped on government surveillance (FISA Act) during the 2008 primary against Ed Fallon.

What a name!!
LA State Rep. Bubba Chaney (D) switches parties to GOP http://www.thenewsstar.com/art...

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8

My, oh my
Boehner, Cantor and McCarthy are making a pigs ear out of this.

http://www.politico.com/news/s...


Don't
tell me Boehner cried when he said this:

But even with a 65-seat majority, Republicans are still blaming Democrats for their troubles. Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio), who led his party to a historic triumph in the mid-term elections, said his control of the House is new.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/s...

Comes from the same party where Eric Cantor told everyone to vote no on everything en mass. Turnabout is fair play no?  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12


[ Parent ]
I'm familiar with some strange idioms
Never heard of making a pig's ear of something before, though. I do agree, however!

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Lee just resigned!
Wow, I thought he'd pull an Ensign.

Too bad our bench is nill to non-existent up there....


Holy crap
R+6 so who we got?

[ Parent ]
Wow
that was quick. Now how will this affect redistricting?  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Surreal
There's got to be more to this story.  

[ Parent ]
Last time we actually contended the seat...
Jon Powers, a war veteran, was our top recruit.

But he and the also-ran, corporatist Dem annihilated each other and a peace activist Alice something or other skated to the nomination and was then beaten by Lee in the open seat race.


[ Parent ]
Why
Why do idiots think that they can get away with this sort of crap in this day and age?

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

[ Parent ]
Because they often do
David Vitter being the best example.

[ Parent ]
Newt Gingrich cheated on two wives
and married his mistresses, yet people talk seriously about him running for president.

[ Parent ]
Rudy Giuliani, too


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Wow
This will be interesting. This is a rough district for Democrats, but I don't think it is absolutely unattainable. NY-20 had much deeper roots being Republican, and that was interupted recently. If Eric Massa can win next door, I am sure SOMEONE can win here. :)

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


[ Parent ]
I think
this district will be vaporized in redistricting now that Chris Lee is gone. Which means Ann Marie Burkele might be saved. Bad news for everyone in Syracuse though....

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
I dunno
Republicans seem to be quite attached to having the current 26th and 29th as Republican strongholds in Western New York. Not sure how realistic that is, but that is what they are hoping for.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


[ Parent ]
Buerkle's district maybe...
But even that I doubt.  This likely means we have one less credible Dem to deal with in 2012 for the WNY Congressional Melting Pot...I'd put my money on Maffei coming back and there being just one Republican in the region (whatever the southtowns seat is) when the smoke clears.

[ Parent ]
Obama approvak
As was pointed out to me at the time (I should have known better anyway) polling last week probably was a blip. Rasmussen is 50-49, Gallup 47-44 and now Ipsos/Reuters is 51-46 which is actually better than last month in that poll.

http://big.assets.huffingtonpo...


approval
obviously.

[ Parent ]
Chris Lee Resigns
http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2011...

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

Carl Paladino
Doesn't he live in the 26th? I see him as possibly the only Republican that could lose this seat in a Special Election. I would LOVE to see that cat fud.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


Versus Jack Davis
Craziest race ever?

[ Parent ]
Hmm
Given that the 26th might be done for, anyone credible want to run for this district? I mean, I guess you might get a year and a half to build up a resume but you'd have to know the district will be short-lived.  

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05

[ Parent ]
I was thinking about a map of New York
I haven't done one yet, but I think you could get 2 Democratic districts out of combining the 28th and 26th, with giving the most Republican portions of the 26th to the 29th. I don't like the snake-like district of Slaughter's anyways. turn it into a Buffalo+ district, and a Rochester+ district. Both could easily be made D+5 or D+6.  

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


[ Parent ]
NY
This doesn't weaken the Reeps' hand in redistricting. I think the upshot might be that they would be willing to agree to the Dems making Lee's district less red (which is easy enough if you unpack Slaughter's asinine distrcit) in return for making one of the eastern districts more red.  

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
.02 on NY 26
This could have huge redistricting implications. Lee's seat was safe GOP and he had more seniority than the 6 new NY freshmen. Now with a less than one term freshman incoming this seat could be in prime chopping position. Geography makes it a bit tougher than one might think though.

To shore up Buerkle they would have to move everyone progressive west, with Reed taking most of 26, Hanna taking some and moving west, Buerkle maybe some if they can reach that far and then moving into some of Reed/Hanna's territory.

Should be safe GOP in the special at least, Dems have zero to negative zero bench here.


OT: Giffords can talk now
She likes toast.

http://www.cnn.com/2011/HEALTH...

41, Ind, CA-05


great news, but
whoever at that rehab center is leaking information about her condition to the press should be fired.

[ Parent ]
Nobody's leaking it, it was given freely by her spokesman
Which I'm sure was approved by her husband.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
I'd
I'd much prefer that they release less information about her progress instead of more.  In fact, I thought the near daily updates by her husband earlier in her recovery were actually not that helpful.  I think they raise false hope instead of letting her get to the point of where they could release some really good news.  That she has requested toast is probably not something I'd like to have known, because it really invites more questions than its answers.

I really want Gabby to recover as quickly as possible, and I'd like even more for those closest to her to give her more privacy than she's currently getting.


[ Parent ]
Her husband? lol


[ Parent ]
Far More False Statements Made by Republicans than by Democrats
I'm this comes to a huge shock to almost everyone here. And look who turns up the most:

During the last 13 months, the Republicans that have led the way with the largest number of Barely True, False, and Pants On Fire grades are Sarah Palin with eight, Michele Bachmann with seven, and John Boehner, Mike Pence, and the National Republican Congressional Committee with four each.

http://blog.lib.umn.edu/cspg/s...

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


Kyl's retiring
Supposedly at his news conference at 10am, he's announcing that he's planning on retiring from the Senate.

5th Senator
(if we include Hutchinson) and it's only February of 2011. It's interesting - whether there will be 10 by, say, February 2012...

[ Parent ]
Been a great sting of news for Dems this year so far......
Obama's approvals bouncing back, House GOP in disarray in so many ways, weak GOP Prez field and too scared to even pull the trigger, a new winnable open seat for us, Mubarek resigning tonight (Egypt could easily be trouble spot going forward, but Mubarek's become a clear liability and his leaving sooner rather than later helps us).

It feels like we have some mojo again, it's been a couple years since I felt this good about politics.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


I honestly
don't get what the hell people like Romney and Pawlenty are doing. They clearly intend on running or at least want to run pretty badly, yet they aren't taking the official steps. They are doing all of the other usual stuff, however.

What gives?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
Frankly it shows weakness......
Sure when you file you'll start getting scrutiny and taking shots, and fellow GOPers will try to tear you down.

But so what?  That happens later, too.

And in the meantime, you get a chance to learn to be a national candidate (Obama said it took him 4 months when commenting skeptically about Palin when McCain picked her as his running mate), and you raise a lot of money you desperately need.  And you build an organization.  You're not going to avoid mistakes later that you'd make now in respond to the pressure.

Ultimately that these people are afraid to file exploratory papers says they're scared.  And it's another sign of being a poor candidate to be that scared.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Money
Right now, they can travel the country, doing all the things they would be doing as official candidates, on their PAC money. Once they become official candidates, they have to shut down their PAC's an use precious campaign money to travel and campaign.  

[ Parent ]
No one
Except for some businessman named Cain, has filed paperwork to officially run for President. All the candidates are traveling around, collecting money for speaking engagements, etc. Once they declare they are candidates, the FEC kind of takes them by the balls and limits what they can do.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


[ Parent ]
To you and GOP Voter: that makes sense.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
GOP Pres
Mitch Daniels is gloating saying if he ran he would have the cash and the support to win the nomination. Sounds like someone who's thinking of running. He's termed out of his job as governor in 2012 so he has a free shot at running for president.

http://www.politico.com/news/s...

19, Male, Independent, CA-12


I suspect Daniels is just about the strongest candidate the GOP could mount here
And, if Romney were to entirely implode under his health care weight, I suspect Daniels could even prevail in New Hampshire. (I think Daniels could play just fine in Iowa and South Carolina.) In terms of a general election, Daniels, obviously, instantly flips Indiana, probably flips Ohio, too, and I think he's one of the few potential candidates who could succeed in both VA/NC and in the SW. Still, I suspect there's only about a 50/50 chance he actually runs here.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
NJ-Sen: I have heard
a few people question his ability as a Senator.  Although I can see that on one issue (his regressive views on Cuba-USA relations), it puzzles me why he'd be latently called incompetent.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


On Cuba, remember Menendez is Cuban-American and toes the same line as...
...most Cuban-Americans of his generation.  It's deeply personal and emotional for them, even though ultimately they're insisting on what has become clearly bad policy.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I know, I understand it.
It's just my one qualm.  It still sort of irks me when that banned user, Krazen, called him "useless."

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]

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