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SSP Daily Digest: 1/20

by: Crisitunity

Thu Jan 20, 2011 at 4:03 PM EST


CA-Sen: Does Meg Whitman seriously not have anything better to do with her money? Rumors are bubbling up that she's actually considering a return to politics... which, if it's going to be in 2012, would mean a run against Dianne Feinstein (which, of course, would mean a run against the state's most popular politician in a presidential year, instead of an open seat run in a down year for Dems).

MT-Sen: Republican businessman (and one-time LG candidate) Steve Daines did some serious fundraising in the last few months since announcing his candidacy, hauling in $225K since his announcement, with the majority of that money coming from in-state. The main target he's probably trying to scare with that money isn't Jon Tester (who has about $500K CoH), but Republican Rep. Denny Rehberg, who's usually the GOPer most associated with this race but has sounded noncommittal so far; I'm sure Daines would like to see Rehberg stay out of the Senate primary. Rehberg has $594K. One other Montana Senate item, although it hopefully won't be an issue any time soon: the Montana legislature is considering whether, in the event of a Senate vacancy, to switch over from gubernatorial appointment to a fast special election instead.

OH-Sen: Quinnipiac has a poll today of the Ohio Senate race, but, like their Pennsylvania poll last month, the lack of an obvious Republican opponent means the matchup is just against Generic R. Sherrod Brown does pretty well against G.R., especially considering that actual named candidates tend not to do as well as generics at least at this stage in the game; Brown leads 45-33, and has an approval of 45/25. This is definitely a race where we shouldn't start celebrating short of the end zone, though, considering that PPP recently found Brown in much more of a pickle, and even Qpac points out he's far from the 50% mark and in "decent but not overwhelming" shape. The Cleveland Plain Dealer's writeup of the poll spends a lot of ink talking up Rep. Steve LaTourette as a possible GOP candidate; while he'd bring some geographic strengths to the race that other GOPers might not, there hasn't been any indication so far that he's interested.

RI-Sen, RI-Gov: Sheldon Whitehouse looks like he's dodged at least one credible candidate in 2012; John Robitaille, who came close in the 2010 gubernatorial race (although that was only because of the center-left vote split between Lincoln Chafee and Frank Caprio) and has expressed interest in running for something else, now seems focused on a retry in the 2014 gubernatorial race. Partly, he admits, that's because running statewide as a Republican in Rhode Island in a presidential year would be a kamikaze mission.

WV-Gov: SoS Natalie Tennant has gotten endless mentions as a likely gubernatorial candidate, but with the clock ticking to the now-only-nine-months-away special election, she's made her candidacy official as of yesterday.

FL-25: OK, here's a trivia question for you all (which I genuinely don't know the answer to)... which House freshman holds the record for the shortest partial term, before having to resign in shame? (I'm wondering if Eric Massa actually holds the record, but I'd bet there's some historical example of someone accomplishing it in less than one year.) The reason I ask is that things seem to be moving into a new phase in the investigation into David Rivera, and whether piles of money paid from a dog track that he helped, to his mother's marketing company, found their way into his pockets. The Miami-Dade County's state's attorney, Katherine Fernandez Rundle, just turned the case over to the Florida Dept. of Law Enforcement. Although that sounds ominous, some observers are seeing the move as a downgrade, though, as the FDLE may not devote the same level of resources to it; Rundle has been viewed as a possible Dem challenger in this district, and may be punting the case to avoid it becoming a liability for her later.

MI-15: Rep. John Dingell (84 years old) says he'll be back for an unprecedented 30th term in the House, running again in 2012. One important detail, though: whatever district he's running in, it won't be the 15th next time, as Michigan is about to lose a seat. Dingell has survived multiple bad redistrictings over the decades, including beating fellow Democratic Rep. Lynn Rivers in a 2002 primary mashup. (Thanks to Greg Giroux, we know now that Dingell will pass Robert Byrd in all-time legislative service in June of 2013.)

Mayors: Two mayoral races are in the news today, although both aren't up for grabs until 2012. Two-term incumbent Buddy Dyer (who used to be the Democratic leader in the Florida state Senate) says he's going to run for another term as mayor of Orlando. He also mentioned some vague gubernatorial aspirations. Also, Portland, Oregon will elect a new mayor in '12; all the action will be in the Democratic primary, where it's not certain that Sam Adams (damaged by a sex scandal several years ago) will run for a second term. One interesting possibility mentioned: former Senate candidate Steve Novick, who gained a lot of netroots attention during his '08 Dem primary run, is seriously considering a run.

Votes: As you're probably already aware, the Dems held the defections down to three on yesterday's HCR repeal vote. It was the three likeliest suspects, given the combination of their dark-red districts and previous statements on the matter: OK-02's Dan Boren, NC-07's Mike McIntyre, and AR-04's Mike Ross. UT-02's Jim Matheson has the reddest district of any "no" vote, but he's a member of leadership and may be sanguine about getting a better district out of redistricting next year (or just figuring that the worst is past).

Redistricting: Arizona legislative Republicans sort of succeeded with their quest to get three members of the state redistricting panel kicked off (on the grounds that they were serving in other political offices); however, it was a partial success because only two of the three challenged members got kicked off by the state supreme court and the one they were really targeting the most didn't get kicked off. Also, if you're in Virginia and you're a college student, the state is having a redistricting contest. No word on whether you absolutely have to be part of a team or can do it individually, but the winners get a cash prize and get to present the design for new congressional and legislative maps to the Governor's entirely-nonbinding advisory panel. (Actually, it looks like it's too late to start a team if your college doesn't already have one, but your college probably already has a team which you might be able to join. See here for the details.)

Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 1/20
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I'd love to see Steve Novick as Portland mayor
Mayor Adams isn't terribly popular, and Novick is just awesome.

Good to see Secy. Tennant confirmed as a candidate for governor of West Virginia, although I may just like her because she shares the same last name as Scottish actor and former "Doctor Who" star David Tennant.

And man, Rep. Rivera is bad news. Bet FL-25 residents are collectively kicking themselves for electing him.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native


FL-25: I'm assuming it'll still be awhile
As the Obama administration just announced new Cuba policies and we need to let that go away before we can win this district.  If we're lucky, he won't be forced to resign and we'll get use all this going into the general election.

[ Parent ]
wups, didnt mean that to be a reply
but so what if it is.

[ Parent ]
Mayor Sam (Adams) needs to stop wearing ties
He just seems too doggone stuffy for this city. But at this point, while he still could be re-elected, he is somewhat damaged by the Beau Breedlove thing, along with the Police scandals that brought Jesse Jackson here a few months back.

Local African Americans (about 6% of the vote) are itching to back a different candidate. Police relations with that community were excellent under a previous Chief of Police.

A couple of the other commissioners (the Portland Mayor is 1st among equals in a 5 man commission) may also be candidates.


[ Parent ]
I always do a double-take when I'm in Portland...
And I see somebody wearing a suit jacket and tie. I've gotten used to it in D.C., but it's an unusual sight in PDX.

Do African Americans only make up six percent of the Portland electorate? I was thinking it was closer to 10-12%, though they might not vote at the same rate as other Portlanders.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native


[ Parent ]
I was imprecise
I should have said about 6% of the population -- I don't know what proportion of the vote is made up by A-As.

Overall, Portland is 80% non-Hispanic white; the other components are split 3 ways, about equally -- Hispanic, A-A, and Asian.

Back to Sam -- when we watched him light the Xmas tree back in '09, he seemed so uncomfortable interacting with people on stage.


[ Parent ]
They knew this guy was bad news before they elected him.
This probably doesn't even register with those whom voted for him. Just like their dear Medicare fraud committing Governor.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
It might be

the Republican Party scraping the bottom of the barrel of its talent pool in the district.

It is a district that is right at tipping Democratic- maybe it has already but we didn't see it due to the difference in turnout rates this election.  Rivera is the sort of thing that happens in districts where it's almost but not quite over for the incumbent/establishment party.


[ Parent ]
Wasn't Diaz de la Portilla
also thinking about running, but talked out of it?

Moderate Libertarian Republican, MA-8 (college) / MD-7 (hometown)

[ Parent ]
West
This is sort of a strange idea that I've mentioned before, but I'll throw it out again because I think it might be the best way for FL Rs to salvage an increasingly toxic situation in FL-25. Would it actually be possible to throw West and Rivera together into a ~60% Hispanic District? If they both have separate seats, they could both fall to Democrats. But if you combined them and made FL-22 a Safe D seat, you could probably make 18, 21, 25 and 16 significantly safer.

So the big piece of the puzzle is: Can West defeat Rivera in the primary, and more importantly, win and hold a Cuban district? His issue stances and emphasis might mesh reasonably well, but I'm not really familiar with the situation. Anyone from FL care to speculate on what might happen?

Moderate Libertarian Republican, MA-8 (college) / MD-7 (hometown)


[ Parent ]
Would that
comply with the new rules?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
I think so
FL-23 pretty much has to be a barbell from WPB to Ft. Lauderdale to stay majority-minority (though, again, I'm not a VRA Expert). That leaves a strip along the coast as the core of FL-22. Then it can turn West through Southern Broward and take in the Hialeah area. It's reasonably compact, save for the long tail up into West Palm Beach, and they could argue that that was required to keep FL-23 Majority-Minority and as compact as possible.

Moderate Libertarian Republican, MA-8 (college) / MD-7 (hometown)

[ Parent ]
I feel like the republicans are on the edge in South Florida though
if they were smart they would cut Riveras district out since hes a corrupt scumbag whos going to lose anyway and create a Dem centered Cuban district to secure the rest of south floridas cuban population but I don't suspect that will happen. But if they don't then a bad election down the line could end up flipping a few house seats in the region.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

[ Parent ]
OH-Sen
PPPolling basically called the Q-poll bullshit on twitter. They pointed out that this time in the '10 cycle Q-poll had Strickland leading Kasich by 30pts whereas PPolling has his only +6.

Pollster cat fight anyone?

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


Approval rating is similar
The disapproval is where they disagree. And the ballot test disrepancy is nowhere near as big as the gubernatorial poll. Q is also RV and PPP is a hybrid model that allows for more likely voters. For all we know Q could well be too generous and PPP too negative. Both tend to suggest a competitive race where the incumbent starts with a lead.

[ Parent ]
Trivia Question
just a guess, but I'd say Richard A. Tonry is in the running. Resigned after 4 months due to voter fraud in 1977.

Moderate Libertarian Republican, MA-8 (college) / MD-7 (hometown)

eMeg 2: The Megganing
Please, Please, don't carpet bomb this state again Meg, I don't think I can handle another crappy statewide campaign like that.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

eMeg X: ArMegEddon


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Frank Ballance (NC-01)?
I didn't look up his specific dates, but he definitely resigned during his first and only term. Bill Janklow (SC-01) too, but I think he was in longer than Ballance.  

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

Ballance served the majority of his term
He resigned in June of '04.

Janklow (SD-AL, not SC-01) lasted for one year; he resigned in January of '04. He's probably the record-holder.


[ Parent ]
Per Yahoo Answers
The Congressman who served the shortest term ever was Rep. Effingham Lawrence who served as a Representative from the state of Louisiana for one day: March 3, 1875. Lawrence had supposedly lost the election to Jacob Hale Sypher, but Lawrence continued to contest the election, even after Rep. Sypher had been seated. Astonishingly, the decision was made that Lawrence had in fact been the rightful winner of the previous election, and on March 3, 1875--the last day of the congressional term--Lawrence was sworn in as Congressman. Funny enough, after getting his one day as Congressman, he decided that was enough, chose not to run for re-election, and went back to farming.

http://answers.yahoo.com/quest...

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  


Here
is his wikipedia page:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/E...

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Oh,
reread your question. Resign in shame. So I guess it isn't him then.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Although he didn't resign in scandal
Which I think was intended to be part of the criteria. Shelly Gibbs had a similarly (though slightly longer) abbreviated term.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

[ Parent ]
In the modern era
How about Richard Tonry (D-LA, 1/3/77-5/4/77).

[ Parent ]
In the modern era, the record-holder has to be Snelly Gibbr
She served for less than two months (11/13/06 to 1/3/07), during most of which Congress was not in session.

[ Parent ]
VA-Sen
http://www.rollcall.com/news/-...
You kind of have to read between the lines here, but with Tim Kaine giving up "day-to-day" operations of the DNC to the new "executive director" it tells me that Kaine will have a lot more free time on his hands. He has said that Webb will be running for reelection (although that may just be a smokescreen) and simultaneously took himself out of consideration of the senate race. Methinks that Kaine may be Obama's VP nominee in 2012, as Biden is getting up there in age, and as gaffe prone.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


That would be interesting...
But I wouldn't read that deeply into it just yet.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Speculation
That's what makes SSP great! I wouldn't say that this is a very likely outcome, but it certainly seems to be lining itself up that way. Of course, it could just be Obama putting a campaign junkie in the driver's seat of the DNC going into a presidential election cycle. But it seems conspicuous nonetheless.  

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


[ Parent ]
Who is this campaign junkie?
And this little change at the DNC is good, right?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Patrick Gaspard
He was the political director of Obama's 2008 election. He is now the man in control of the DNC "Day-to-day operations"

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


[ Parent ]
God I hope not
I heart Biden. And Kaine, while a decent public servant is so... boring. Pre-election, if you compared Kaine's interviews with Biden's, it wasn't even close. Biden was a waaaay better surrogate. And Kaine as VP would saddle Dems with him as the likely 2016 nominee, and I'm awfully skeptical he'd do well.  

[ Parent ]
Kaine in 2016, ugh
At least that's how I stand today.  2 years of campaigning for VP, 2 years of being VP and 2 years campaigning for Prez could change my mind on him.  But as of today, I'd agree it wouldn't excite me.

[ Parent ]
I'd vote for Ambassador Huntsman over Chairman Kaine...
In a New York minute. The abortion issue is the only thing that gives me pause about the ambassador, and if he's the Republican nominee versus a pro-life Democrat, I'll probably vote Republican.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
To be honest....
... I find the Huntsman gossip about 2012 completely misplaced because, frankly, if Huntsman were to seek higher office, it'd make a lot more sense for him to do as a Democrat.

I highly doubt Biden is going to be replaced... it's just a parlor game for bored political junkies. But if he is, I actually think Huntsman would be a more likely pick. He's tight with Obama, works in the administration, and is basically a moderate technocrat on all the issues. There's no reason he couldn't just be a technocratic/centrist Democrat. And on the abortion issue, he could simply say that he's personally pro-life, but that it's the law of the land (like many Democrats).

Anyway, it's all pretty much academic. Biden's not getting replaced, Kaine's not taking his place, and Huntsman's not becoming VP. But if any of that were to happen... well, I've just made my case.  


[ Parent ]
That wouldn't
be the worst idea in the world, if the goal is to try to attract the center and the center-right. But I'm not sure it'd fly with the base.

If he's going to run as a Democrat, why not try to be one in the Senate from Utah? Perhaps there's a bigger divide than I realize, but if he's still pretty popular in the state, you have to wonder if he'd be able to sit in that seat for as long as he wants. It'd probably be easier to do that than try to run for the presidential nomination against people that have been Democrats for a lot longer and, for better or worse, are almost certainly more liberal than him.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
Oh I know
The base would scream, and I'm not advocating it. I'm just saying it's something I could, potentially, see happening.  

[ Parent ]
But that's why I couldn't
see it happening. After all, what's the point of infuriating the base and then having the poor guy lose a primary a few years later? As much as he seems like a sane, sober guy, there's nothing that he offers (at least that I can think of) that someone else does not--someone who would be viewed by the base far more favorably.

Seriously now, if Matheson doesn't want to run, and there's no other viable Democrat, what would it take for him to run on the Democratic line in 2012. I have to think they'd clear the field for him, and it'd give the party all of the benefits of adding him to the ticket without pissing off the base, at least outside of Utah. I wonder if they have had any discussions about this sort of thing in the White House.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
Agreed, I'm no Kaine fan in the slightest
Truthfully, I can't fathom why Obama would even consider him, that is unless he sees Virginia as the do-or-die state of 2012. Biden's of immense help in Ohio and Pennsylvania.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
He must see VA as his ace in the hole
But the negative questioning that would ensue, it being a sign of weakness is not worth it to me.  And I'm sure Biden would go to SoS then, and he may even be happier there.  But, first rule in picking a VP, do no harm, and you could probably qualify that.

I would at least hope they wait until it's apparent that they need for that to happen.  If Palin's the nominee, well I suppose they can afford it but they certainly don't need it.

What would be a much better scenario is if Lugar got tea-bagged and Obama upgraded him to SoS as a "fuck you".

And I should also note I'm biased because I dont want to see anyone have any sort of leg-up on Hillary.  If there is such a thing at this point; she's done beautifully at SoS with the wikileaks being the only spot and she seemed to quickly get the fire off her.


[ Parent ]
If he seen Virginia
as being that necessary, then why not go for Warner? He'd be far more help, and if they ended up losing, they'd still hold the seat.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Some are barking up wrong tree altogether on this......
Obama considered Webb for VP last time and won Virginia without him.

Obama considered Bayh for VP last time and won Indiana(!) without him.

The 2nd slot is Biden's, period, unless he surprises everyone, probably even himself, and decides to retire.

But if he does retire, Obama will not consider the chances of winning a state in picking a new running mate.  He already proved he doesn't have to.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
I very much like the idea of Lugar at State
If Clinton leaves and Lugar gets defeated at the polls. He has been very much a loyal opposition guy when it's come to foreign policy, and he and Obama are friends.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
They are not enough democrats?

I think they are...

For VP, for Secretary of State, and for every high level office.


[ Parent ]
If the strategy is to split the R party
Then it is important and helpful to have Rs join us -- in the Administration, and more.

[ Parent ]
I opposes not to have some republican

But not in offices of this level. This is like give the government to the republicans despite win.

[ Parent ]
Republicans in lower level jobs
are just tokens, and are rightfully seen as such.

[ Parent ]
Too old.
d/o/b: 4/4/32

[ Parent ]
Why is old age
an impediment to a Secretary of State, as long as his brain and body work well enough for the job?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
Secretary of State does a lot of travelling around the world
Not sure if an 80-year-old would be up to that.

[ Parent ]
Some are, some are not
Let's make no assumptions based on age. That's ageism.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
User Johnny L did say "not sure"
It is a legitimate question for someone of that age (or someone considerably younger).

I have no doubt that Lugar is a responsible public servant, and would turn down an offer of SoS if he felt unable to manage the travel demanded of an US SoS.

Of course, this is all premised on a desire / decision of Hillary to move, say to SecDef or even the VP slot.  


[ Parent ]
I Also Heart Joe Biden
Seriously, I wish I had known how awesome he was before he became VP. I may have supported him for President over Obama (probably not, but I would've considered it much more than the second I did before going whole-hog for Obama in the Dem primaries).

Joe Biden is awesome.

He keeps telling the truth all the time, sometimes on accident, sometimes on purpose. And I effing heart him so much for that. And he actually does that truly Christian thing where he just naturally loves everybody. Black people, gay people, working people, just people, man.

Joe Biden is a dude who abides. Every whisper I've heard about him through the grapevine just makes me love him more. Every "gaffe" and every slip of the tongue.  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


[ Parent ]
He's
a great guy. I will never forget the time he was in Jeffersonville Indiana, not only did he give me a picture we actually had some small talk and it was very crowded but he still made time.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
I hope he retires not

I like. I think he deserve to continue. Obama is younger, the age of Biden is not a trouble.

[ Parent ]
Hmm...
If he's going to replace Biden there are much better options. I do not think replacing Biden really helps him much. This makes me wonder about whether a Webb retirement will happen.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
I am thinking
Bayh would be a good choice. Maybe even Liberman  

TX-13,22,Dem

[ Parent ]
I think Lieberman's only future is in a GOP cabinet
I love Lieberman, but if Obama selected him (or Bayh, for that matter) for anything, the left would all but explode. Webb, on the other hand, makes a little more sense, but he's hardly the most inspiring campaigner. I think Obama should stick with Biden.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
It's not just the left that hates Lieberman
he's generally disliked in all corners. Without getting into his messy history or unorthodox policy views, he's personally unappealing to turn off a lot of swing voters. I also recall him being a somewhat weak campaigner for Gore.  

NY-01/NY-19

[ Parent ]
Yes
Lieberman hurts the ticket much more than he helps it. Plus he basically indicated today he isn't even going to support Obama in 2012. I think Obama should just stick with Biden, he's fine.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Did he indicate that? You be the judge:
Here's what he said in the comments I read:

Lieberman says it's "too early to say" if he thinks Obama deserves to be re-elected and if he would support Obama in 2012.

"But as I've said, President Obama has done some things, particularly in foreign policy, that I think have been very solid and really in the bipartisan mainstream of American foreign policy tradition. That's all to the good.

"I haven't agreed with everything he's done, but I think he's building a decent record. The reason I said it's too early is because we're only halfway through the Obama administration and we don't know who the Republicans will put up, so I'll watch it with real interest."

Asked point-blank if it is conceivable Lieberman might support a Republican presidential candidate in 2012, he responds: "It's conceivable, but I wouldn't want to overstate that because I think in many ways President Obama, particularly in the past several months, has heard the voice of the American people in the election last November, and I think he's followed that course.

"The agreement on extending the Bush tax cuts, which was the right agreement for our country and our economy, the repeal of don't ask, don't tell, these are steps in the right direction. But we'll see. It's still early."

It sounds more like he's leaning toward endorsing Obama than that he won't support him. But we really don't know until he makes up his mind. And frankly, his endorsement won't matter much at all, anyway.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
Agreed
It will be nice to live in a world where Lieberman doesn't matter that much.....

[ Parent ]
Truth
 be told I didn't read the whole comment. Yeah that sounds like he's leaning towards an endorsement but still being an ass about it. But like you said it doesn't really matter.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
I
am not a fan of Bayh but he would be better than Lieberman that's for sure. Though if Biden wanted to step down my first choice would be Clinton followed by O'Malley and then Rendell. I'll also go out on a limb and say if Palin is the nominee and Bayh is his running mate I think Obama would carry Indiana again.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
I think if there was ever going to be a new VP candidate
it would be Clinton.  

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
It
would be the logical choice. It would help him in the areas he needs in the Midwest. Plus help with indies. For some reason I'll never understand there seems to be a Clinton Republican following as well. Plus she has already indicated she will probably be a one term SoS.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Hillary's GOP following is highly overstated
Don't get me wrong, I adore Hillary and voted for her in the '08 primaries. But, the admiration she garnered among conservatives in the last presidential cycle stemmed solely from her beating on Obama from what was perceived to be the right. A lot of Republican politicians seem to like Hillary, sure, and you have oddballs like Christine O'Donnell who praise her, but, again, it's only b/c Hillary spent a politician season bashing Obama and that's led some on the right to mistake her for a Blue Dog Democrat of sorts. If Hillary runs in 2016, for instance, I can assure y'all that she won't be getting raves from the GOP. In reality, she's more liberal than Obama on a bunch of issues. She just happened to position herself in such a way in 2008 that made her look like the centrist to leftist Obama.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
It's not Hillary's GOP following
-- it's her following with the working class, which compensates for President Obama's weakness.

[ Parent ]
My great aunt and uncle are life long
Republicans and would have voted for a Democrat for the first time had Hillary won the nomination. They ended up voting for McCain. Their kind of racist. She also has amazingly high favorables considering where she once was.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
It would have to be
That is the only acceptable option in my mind to replace Biden, and even then, why would he go? There would have to be a good excuse and "to spend more time with my grown-ass kids" would be weak. And even then, it would saddle us with ole saddlebags herself....I should clarify that I love Hillary Clinton immensely and would vote for her for President over any Republican I can think of.

But seriously, if Obama swapped Biden for Hillary, it would be an actual coronation this time, instead of the near-coronation the 2008 Democratic primary once promised to be.  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


[ Parent ]
No change
When was the last time there was a switch? Harry Truman. There is always speculation but it only happens in movies.

[ Parent ]
I guess we're not counting Spiro T. Agnew
to Gerald Ford, because that was due to a resignation in disgrace.

FDR also changed VPs.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
Agnew was on the ticket
For both of Nixon's wins.

[ Parent ]
That's a good point,
but the usual precedents don't apply. It's extremely unlikely, I think most would agree, that Biden will be running for president in 2016, so there's really nothing to set him up for.

You know, it's strange. I doubt anybody remembers this, but I made a very, very out there prediction that Giffords would be the vice presidential nominee in 2012. That's almost certainly not going to happen now, assuming she's even physically up for that, because it'd be seen as too political. If anything, I bet she runs for the Senate if she's looking to move up.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
She does seem to be making a remarkable recovery
Shot in the head less than two weeks ago and already doing stuff nobody would think possible. I wouldn't write anything off. Especially considering any campaign kick-off could be left as late as maybe March 2012. I do believe in fate.

[ Parent ]
Her recovery
may be remarkable, but here's a few things that I think would prevent it from happening:

1. It would be seen as remarkably, uncontrollably, hysterical political, because in a lot of ways, it would be. I don't know nearly as much about her as others do, but while everything I've read says she's someone to watch, she doesn't bring anything special to the table that warrants putting her on the ticket. One of the reasons I advocated doing so was to pump up our margins amongst women that are proving to be the most loyal Democratic voters and to help us in Arizona, but that doesn't mean she brings any sort of strength to governing. It might--might--be a different story if she had been in congress longer.

Right now, Obama is enjoying all of the benefits, such as they are, from what happened (and not because he exploited it), but if he were to put her on the ticket, I don't think it'd go over very well.

2. She's far more useful to her party by either remaining in her seat or by winning us a Senate seat in Arizona. She's still quite young and could easily wait another ten or 15 years to run for president and still be very young. In other words, we don't have to use what she offers us politically just yet. We can spread out her advantages over several years on end.

3. There are probably a lot of people that, rightfully or wrongly, feel that they deserve a shot before her.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
I was referring to the Senate race


[ Parent ]
AZ Sen
The Dems don't have much of a bench there. Pastor and Grijlava are probably unelectable at the state level, so what's left is Napolitano and Giffords and a collection of retreads and who-dats. If Kyl retires or looks vulnerable, Giffords would have been at worst #2 on the list even if nothing had happened and would still be there assuming she has no significant mental impairment.

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
Oh.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Poor choice of words in point 3
Just saying.

[ Parent ]
True, Biden's too old to run in 2016
but Cheney was definitely not going to run at the end of Bush's presidency, but he still got renominated.  And by '04 he brought zilch to the ticket. He had no geographic base, offered no acumen in any field Bush didn't claim to have experience in, and he was a far more disliked and polarizing figure than Biden. Not to mention he wasn't exactly an enthusiastic campaigner.

My point is, the vice presidency doesn't have to be a stepping stone to the Oval Office. Also, even though it probably would have helped Bush more to swap VPs in '04 than it would help Obama to do so in '12, he didn't do it because of the commotion it would cause. He would basically lose three to four weeks of campaigning in August and September as he explained to the press why Biden had been the wrong choice originally.  

NY-01/NY-19


[ Parent ]
I don't know
that he didn't bring anything to the ticket. He certainly didn't do anything for me, and I doubt he would have done anything for you had you been voting at the time, but we aren't the people they were trying to go after. He was, if memory serves me correctly, wildly popular with the base at that point, and considering how the left went after him (justifiably so, in my opinion) but how he looked fairly reasonable in response, he probably helped with at least part of the center.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
No change
When was the last time there was a switch? Harry Truman. There is always speculation but it only happens in movies.

[ Parent ]
Ford actually
rockefeller hated the veephood and left, so ford brough in Bob Dole!.  It's not a "switch" but it's still a change in the veep

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
Bayh?
I am still mad at him for retiring after raising $14~ million dollars, and for not using that money for a 2012 governor's run.  

[ Parent ]
But
he has plenty of time to concern troll in Op Eds and on Fox News. Fuck his father was 10x the man Bayh was.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
You don't think
he has any chance of carrying Indiana under any circumstances besides those?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Indiana
was a freak occurrence. Though I don't think Obama will lose the state by 20+ points like Democrats usually do, but he ain't winning the state again. A high single digit loss probably here this time.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
It certainly wouldn't surprise
me if he lost, but I'm not sure why you think it's definite at this point in the game. If anything, the baseline is stronger, since he went up by far more from Kerry than McCain went down from Bush. He might need to eat into the votes of the Republican candidate again, but he also might have more room to grown on his own.

I know that the elections went horribly for the Democrats this year, but that doesn't necessarily mean anything for 2012.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
I
wish I was wrong but more than likely I think Obama is not going to win Indiana again. I'm thinking the only way it happens is if Palin is the nominee and Obama's approvals stay in the mid fifties and he cleans shop on election day. Possible I suppose but not altogether probable. He put together an amazing coalition in Indiana last time and he got a lot of Republican voters on board, not winning in tons Republican areas, but keeping his losses down. The places worst hit with the losses, both local and federal, just happen to be the places Obama needs to do well to acceptable in. We got hit very hard this election. If Romney is the nominee then its off the board, Palin makes it possible but I would still not put money on it.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Did McCain withdraw from IN late in '08?
My theory -- McCain saw the electoral map and decided to withdraw from IN to dedicate resources to PA.

But I have no idea what happened with the volume of ads and the R GOTV in Oct '08.

If true, in a similar scenario where the '12 R candidate de-emphasizes or otherwise does not contest IN, President Obama can win IN again.

But that means President Obama has a significant lead on around Oct 1, 2012. And that's more possible than most people here seem to think, even with a strong R nominee --

As a close election is rare where an --elected-- President is running for re-election. The last such cases were 2004 and 1912, aka a once in a century event.


[ Parent ]
He took IN and NC for granted all along
Their first map even assumed VA was safe.

[ Parent ]
Which emphasizes my point
Unless the election is as close as (or closer than) '08, Rs won't even contest IN.

In such a scenario, President Obama can win IN again.

But such a close election in '12 is highly unlikely, a once in a century scenario.


[ Parent ]
Absolutely
It would be like defending Oregon and Maine. Once a Republican is competitive there the Democrat has already lost. Indiana is a gravy state not a tipping point. That would be Colorado IMO.

[ Parent ]
Of course
it's almost certainly a gravy state. But as you would surely agree, if he can help Democrats, his time will have been well spent.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
You have a better
feel for the political situation there than I do, but I'm wary of trying to look at anything without a nod to numbers.

Like I've said, Obama went up from Kerry more than McCain went down from Bush, so unlike, say, Virginia, where both candidates went up, but one went up by quite a bit more, it seems likely that Obama took some votes that would have otherwise gone to McCain. The difference between the two campaigns was 28,391 votes, or about one percent. Let's just assume that this difference was tripled. If you then re-figure the numbers (including Bob Barr's totals in the overall mix but not those of anyone else, just for simplicity's sake), McCain would have won with about 52 percent of the vote to Obama's 47 percent.

My guess is--and feel free to tell me if I am way off here--is that the places where he kept his losses down last time, and therefore might get hit harder next time, are places with fewer people. And while you make a good point that our party was hit pretty hard this time in places where he needs to do well next time, I am not sure if that necessarily means anything other than the fact that we were hit there pretty hard this time.

I also wonder if he has more room to grow. Considering the pretty big leap from Kerry's totals, he's certainly got most of the low hanging fruit already, but I would assume he's got more room yet to grow. Indiana, unlike Ohio, hasn't been a huge focus in recent presidential elections.

We could go back and forth on this, but I am pretty certain he'll contest it as strongly as he did last time, particularly if Lugar is not the nominee for the Republicans. At least at first, there's really no reason not to.

Also, if you don't mind me asking, why would Romney do so well there? Is he the bland enough center-right candidate that fits well with the center-right sensibilities of the state?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
I
say Romney because he is seems the best the GOP has. Anything could happen and Obama will still do better than most but I just can't see him winning it. We got blown away in many of these areas. Longtime state legislators tossed out for some dudes all over the place. Don't get me started with federal races. If Palin is the nominee then I think he'll contest it. He could actually come close with Palin, maybe even win, it's hard to predict this far out.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Partially agree
I think he will start out by contesting it and see how things go.

[ Parent ]
Probably not, but you never know
Demographically and culturally, Indiana really isn't that different from Ohio. In hindsight, there's no reason Democrats should have contested the state earlier. In fact, Indiana WAS historically a swing state - only the 1960s did it stop being considered one. Up until that point, its presidential votes matched Ohio's to a tee.

The reality is, none of us know what the overall political conditions are going to be in 2012. If Obama's at just about 50%, then, yes, I doubt he'll win Indiana. But if he wins by as much as last time or does somewhat better - like 54%, 55% - which is entirely possible - he could win Indiana.

In any event, Obama certainly doesn't show much interest in conceding the state. Yes, there was a news report that claimed aides didn't expect to contest it, but as late as November when he was in Kokomo, he made several of what seemed to be campaign visits.

Anyway, he certainly wouldn't win it right now, and the odds are somewhat against him for 2012, but you never know.


[ Parent ]
Which news reports
were you talking about?

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
I hope your post is a joke, buff2011! (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Dear Meg Whitman
I could really use a few thousand dollars since you're just blowing it on hopeless causes anyway...

Please send cash.

Thanks,
arealmlc

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


I'd
really like one of those Ipads Meg.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Hilarious
Whitman ought to know that if she couldn't make it in 2010, future cycles won't be much better.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

[ Parent ]
Only a few thousand?
I'd start my ask at $20M. I know the secret way to get Democrats to vote for her. Really!  

[ Parent ]
Maybe this is because I live in New Mexico
But I'd probably be willing to let her buy my vote for a mere $1 million (of course, the language I'd use would be "I promise to give greater consideration of Meg Whitman as having my vote than other Republicans" :P)

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
Hmm.... the winning candidate in CA '12 Senate
based on the '06 and '10 outcomes should get something above 5Million votes (maybe closer to 6 million?)

At $100/vote, Meg would have to spend $500M.

Forbes suggests she's worth 1.3 billion.

(aka, in '10, she spent "only" $30/vote for the 4.2 million votes she received)


[ Parent ]
Dear Mrs. Whitman
I'm out of a job. Could you give me one of those jobs you say rich people like yourself make? Thanks.

californianintexas

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
Good coup

But maybe better ask not if you want not to have her face in your blog. She loves to burn her money in the media world.

[ Parent ]
I'd
like a copy of her new book, "How to blow away $150 million for dummies."

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Hahaha, we need a "like" function


[ Parent ]
Question
for a bill to become law, does it have to pass both houses of Congress in the same legislative session?  Or can the senate of the 113th congress pass a bill from the 112th congress into law?  I ask this because what if the house goes Democratic in the 113th congress but we lose the senate?  Could the senate pass some kind of health care repeal through reconciliation that the house passed in a previous congress?  Not that that's at all likely...

Nope
The legislative calendar is reset at the start of a new Congress. It's possible to reintroduce legislation from a past Congress, but it has to be voted on again.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Two more Democratic Mississippi State House Reps become Republicans
http://www.clarionledger.com/a...

Leaving the GOP 9 seats shy of capturing the majority there.


Meg Withman joins HP Board of directors
http://m.cnbc.com/us_news/4117...

I'd guess this is a sign she's not running for anything for a while, since candidates usually quit the boards they're on (Mitt Romney resigning from Marriot's Board last week) but who knows?

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



That does seem to indicate she's not running for anything else
I do that she will try to build ground as a background player in the GOP and angle for a cabinet appointment in a future GOP administration.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

[ Parent ]
She was a big part of the Romney campaign last time
If he won I'd imagine she'd get her choice of jobs in his administration.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
Being on the HP Board
is an important preparation for running for Senate in California.

[ Parent ]
I know it's not the US House...
But this could be the record for shortest term in a Legislative body because of scandal:
Evelyn Williams was shoplifting exactly seven days after being sworn in.  She was forced to resign 2 weeks later...

http://www.politickernj.com/wa...


Dingell
On one hand I'm surprised and on the other I'm not.  I think this could possibly be even tougher for him than 2010 (which, is only tough by his districts standards having sent him back by a 17% margin).  If it wasn't clear before, I think Dingell is basically saying that he wants to be a congressman until he passes on.

The GOP is going to have a hard time dumping him, which makes me think that his will not be a merged district, rather a more generously drawn one for them.  But, they have to be careful, because they will almost certainly have to make the 11th and 7th less Republican just because of how the population's laid.

BTW, from the Detroit News:

"It's the greatest job in the world," Dingell, D-Dearborn, said today in acknowledging he's fund-raising for a 2012 re-election. "I can help people and ... make things better, and I represent some of the finest people on earth. The people in southeast Michigan are nothing short of wonderful.

...

Dingell, who began his career on Capitol Hill at age 29 when he filled the seat of his father, faced a tougher than usual campaign in 2010 against Rob Steele, a tea party favored Republican. In the end, Dingell pulled out with a 17-point lead.

"We had a very, very nasty campaign against us in which I got death threats, my wife got death threats," Dingell said. "I don't mind them for me - I've had them for years. ... But what does bother me is when they threaten my wife."

In referencing the Tucson, Ariz., shootings that wounded Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, Dingell said rhetoric has created "a hideous unproductive climate which I think is very dangerous."

...



Michigan Voting
Here is how each MI Congressional District voted on the Governors race... http://bit.ly/fO7SoP

[ Parent ]
General VRA Question
When a certain county requires Section 5 preclearance by the DOJ, what exactly does that mean? Does it mean that any district that includes part of that county needs to be precleared? Doesn't that basically have the effect of requiring preclearance for the entire state, b/c if the DOJ refuses to clear those counties than the whole state's map either has to be changed or go through a court battle? A similar question applies for the counties in VA which have been "bailed out" from Section 5 requirements.

Male, VA-08

Not necessarily
Many of those counties that are covered by pre-clearance ended up being under it because of discriminatory voting practices, rather than issues of districts.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

[ Parent ]
Right
But do districts in those counties still have to be precleared by the DOJ? My understanding is that regardless of why an area was covered by section 5, districts in that area still have to be precleared.

Male, VA-08

[ Parent ]
I wont say 100% that yes, you are correct
As I am no lawyer nor an expert on pre-clearance.  But from reading SSP every day for a very long time, but any district .  The point of pre-clearance was to ensure that these areas of the country weren't still discriminating against minority groups in aspects of voting.  So these counties need congressional maps pre-cleared, along with any change to voting law.

[ Parent ]
Special Elections?
This might sound a bit weird, but I feel like the banter on special elections has been low so far this year. Are there any? There weren't any major appointments that freed up some seats?

None that I know of.
In California, there are a few state legislative special elections, but all of them are in solid districts (2R and 1D).

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
Two tomorrown in LA
LA State House district 101 will be a Dem hold, as no Reps or 3rd partys filed. This is Cedric Richmond's house seat.
Senate district 22 is a likely Republican pick-up, as the two frontrunners are Republicans. State Rep. Fred Mills, elected as a Dem in 2007, switched to the Republican party the day before filing for this seat. He may win it without a run-off. Look for state Rep. Simone Champagne, also elected in 07 as a Dem, to make it to the run-off with him, if there is one. She switched to Republican in June.  

[ Parent ]
Jindal
looks safe.
http://www.nola.com/politics/i...

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

Portland Mayor -- minor detail
Since the article mentioned the "Dem primary" for Portland Mayor:

Elections for PDX mayor and city commissioners are non-partisan.  Top two to the general if nobody gets a majority and all that.

It'll still be a mostly-Dem affair, though.


Atty. Gen. Conway will seek reelection
http://www.wave3.com/story/138...

Wonder if this means he's eying Sen. McConnell's seat in 2014.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native


Any idea
of why McConnell was so vulnerable last time, or at least looks that way in retrospect? Kentucky's been a fairly reliable state for Republicans, and he's been at the top of the power structure for some time now, so you'd think he'd be able to protect himself a little more. Bunning came very close to losing in 2004, but I was under the impression McConnell was viewed far more favorably than him.

I don't know if he'd be vulnerable in 2014, especially considering it's a midterm election, or if he will even run. But we should definitely look into it.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
It was 2008
And people were ready to vote against Republicans across the board, even if they weren't voting for Obama. Hence our wins in House races in places like Alabama and Mississippi.

I wish we could have beat him. We came pretty close. I wish Luallen had run.  


[ Parent ]
My Man Mitch
He's become an institution at this point. He'll always get killed in Lexington & Louisville, but rack up huge margins everywhere else. Even GOPers who don't like him (and there are LOTS of those) will support him, even vs a democrat they DO like personally. It's almost like voting against Mitch is like voting for UK to drop basketball...

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
Close?
BTW '08 wasn't all that close, he won by 6% (106k votes).

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
6% is close enough
Somebody stronger than Lunsford would likely have beat him.

[ Parent ]
I actually wonder...
... if we'd have won that seat if Hillary had been the nominee. Her numbers were somewhat better in the Appalachian South, incl. Kentucky, and so we wouldn't have had as big a drag from the top-of-the-ticket.

Of course, Hillary may also have done somewhat worse in the Upper Midwest and the Pacific Northwest, which means that Merkley and Franken may not have won.  


[ Parent ]
Possibly
Then Lunsford badly underperformed with African Americans who without Obama may not have turned out in such large numbers anyway.

[ Parent ]
Here is one big lesson I learned from reading around
She did better than Obama with Appalachian Democrats, not Appalachian voters.

[ Parent ]
Right...
... and there's no guarantee her numbers would have held up. She got a lot of support because by the end of the race she was the "anti-Obama" candidate. Had she been the nominee, I suspect she'd have been somewhat weaker with those groups people claimed she was "strong" in.  

[ Parent ]
That's
not that close, but considering that it's Kentucky, and not a swingier state, it's probably closer than it should have been. Maybe it was just the year, but if it was, why didn't Lamar Alexander, for instance, have a closer race?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
McConnell
was mostly vulnerable, as has been mentioned, because of the overwhelming anti-Republican wave of '08. And being as powerful as he is he always has a target on his back.

What saved him was mostly the fact that he's an institution and for a lot of people, voting against him would be like voting against your uncle. He brings the bacon, and that kept enough people on his side. I personally knew a few Obama/McConnell voters, who stuck with him for exactly those parochial interests. It also didn't help that Bruce Lunsford was not really setting the world on fire, although looking back I'm not sure anybody could have actually gotten over the hump and beaten Mitch. Maybe.

I have no idea if he'll be vulnerable in 2014, but I'm sure there will be someone lining up willing to try. If Conway is ready by then (and he's made people forget about the Aqua Buddah debacle) maybe it'll be him.  

20, Democrat, KY-01


[ Parent ]
westkydem
How do things look for the KY-Gov, A-G, and SoS races this year?  Will there be a sweep?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
My take
KY-Gov: Beshear is in surprisingly good shape, and at the moment I like his chances. Republicans have a potential big star in Richie Farmer, but he's hitched his wagon to the establishment and rather unexciting David Williams.

KY-AG: Conway dodged a BIG bullet with Grayson deciding not to challenge him. Todd P'Pool is small-time to say the least. Unless the animosity to Conway from the senate race is stronger than I think it is, he should win.

KY-SOS: I'm not sure about this one. Obviously it's an open race, but there haven't been any big names to get in yet. Not sure how this one will go.  

20, Democrat, KY-01


[ Parent ]
What
do you think about Agriculture commissioner?

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
I feel like Conway would be better off running for governor
... in 2015. If Obama wins reelection, 2014 may well go against us again. Maybe not as much as this year, but most midterms swing against the party in power and in a conservative state like Kentucky, winning a federal race is always going to be an uphill battle for Democrats.

People are generally more willing to vote for their state's weaker party at the gubernatorial level. And as governor he'd probably be just as well equipped for a national role. In fact, he could probably avoid having to take controversial votes where he'd be torn between national ambitions and the desire of his local base.  


[ Parent ]
But if he's so much
of an institution in the state, why was it so close?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Eh. Maybe
Some people make a career out of being a State Attorney General. Blumenthal and Miller come to mind in that group.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


Pretty sure KY has term limits for the office (nt)


25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

[ Parent ]
Well Blumenthal always wanted to run for something
It was always known he wanted to be a senator or even president. It's just that Dodd and Lieberman seemed to hold Senate seats for life, and first John Rowland, then Jodi Rell seemed to have a lock on the governorship. He probably could have run for governor in 1994, but that was it.  

[ Parent ]
TX-Pres: Obama at 42/55 approval, down 16, 7, 5, 1 to Huck, Mitt, Newt, Palin
Interesting
McCain beat him 55-44. Goes to show the target states will depend on the nominee. Huckabee makes the South harder and Romney the West.

[ Parent ]
and then there is Palin
Oh Palin...  Only down 1% in Texas?

[ Parent ]
I'm not sure I want her as a candidate, for two reasons:
1. As angry as I am at the Republicans, we need a countervailing force, and I'd hate to think that a lot of responsible people were tossed out because of her.

2. If there's an equal reaction that brings things back to normal, then 2014 would likely be very ugly for us. Of course, perhaps this isn't true, but I'd hate to risk it just to get as pissed as I now do when I think of what happened last November.

Also, screw you, John McCain, for putting this woman on a national stage. This is part of your legacy. Are you happy about that?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
McCain is busy
arguing with the clouds about why he lost.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
I'm pretty willing
to forgive a lot of bullshit when it comes to politicians, as long as it isn't outright corruption, but when I saw a few minutes of him being interviewed by Terry Moran in December, I was disgusted. He was going on and on about how hostile Obama was and how unwilling he was to work with Republicans or some crap like that, as if Democrats were the ones that spent two years doing whatever they could to fuck with the Republicans. There's no way any rational person could think that, unless Obama is really, really good at appearing one way in public and another way in private, so either McCain is full of shit or he's have a slow mental breakdown.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Aside
from his numbers against Huckabee, which completely makes sense, none of those other numbers, particularly the last one, are that bad. I know I am probably alone in this regard, but if his base against someone like Romney is 43 right now, he could go up. He's not at such a deficit where some minds couldn't be changed, particularly, I think, if Romney is the nominee.

I wonder how many people are probably voting for Huckabee in large part because of his religion know Romney is a Mormon and pushed the same health care plan as Obama when he was the governor of Massachusetts. I don't like being positively affected by the former, but the latter is fine with me. And both need to be considered.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]

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