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Over-Time 2.0

by: DavidNYC

Tue Nov 09, 2010 at 7:08 AM EST


  • Recounts: The Hill reports that the DCCC has sent staffers to assist with recount efforts in California, Illinois, Kentucky, New York, North Carolina and Washington state. One state is notably not on the list, and I think that says a lot: Texas. Check out our TX-27 item below for more.
  • AK-Sen: Here's the schedule: Absentee ballots (30,500) will start getting counted today. Tomorrow, write-ins (83K) will be talled. And provisional ballots (12,000) will be opened on Friday. Joe Miller needs to find a way to disqualify over 13,000 write-ins to have a shot (as things stand now) - or pray that people wrote in someone other than Lisa Murkowski. Interestingly, the NRSC is still backing Miller's play, with Big John Cornyn and Jim "Crème" DeMenthe both sending fundraising emails on his behalf to help with recount efforts. Meanwhile, for her part, Murkowski has brought in notorious GOP hatchet man Ben Ginsburg. You may remember Ginsburg from such recounts as "Florida 2000: The Brooks Brothers Riot" and "Dickface Norm Coleman's Dickfaced Adventure: The Whinening." A little late-breaking cat fud!
  • MN-Gov: Though he trails Dem Mark Dayton by more than 8,700 votes, Tom Emmer (through his lawyer) says he won't forego a recount. Cynical (i.e., sensible) observers imagine that Emmer will pursue even a hopeless recount just to give GOP Gov. Tim Pawlenty some more time in office. With the state lege having just flipped to the Republicans, this would give the right-wing wrecking crew some unfettered time at the controls. The incoming state House Speaker, Kurt Zellers, says that even if this scenario came to pass, the Republicans would not "rush to ram something right through." Of course, you trust him, right?
  • CA-11: Dem Rep. Jerry McNerney's lead over David Harmer has now climbed to 804 votes. A judge also rejected GOP demands that the elections chief for Contra Costa County allow observers to "compare signatures on vote-by-mail ballots with voter affidavit signatures on file in the office." (The Contra Costa portion of the 10th CD went for Obama 56-43.)
  • CA-20: Republican Andy Vidak has seen his lead shrivel to just 145 votes... but it's Dem Rep. Jim Costa who is in the driver's seat. Huge numbers of ballots remain to be counted in Fresno County (perhaps 50 to 70K), and the Fresno part of this district went for Obama by a two-to-one ratio. Hard to see how Vidak hangs on.
  • IL-08: Though she picked up 188 votes last week, Rep. Melissa Bean (D) still trails Jim Walsh by 350. According to the AP, "hundreds of provisional and absentee ballots are still being counted in Cook, McHenry and Lake counties," but the count won't be finalized any sooner than Nov. 16th, the deadline for absentees to arrive. Provisional ballots will get counted after that date. In related barf-inducing news, unnamed sources (aka "buzz," according to Politico) are supposedly floating Bean's name to head the new Consumer Financial Protection Board if she doesn't pull this one out. Gack!
  • KY-06: Andy Barr is down 649 votes to Rep. Ben Chandler (D), but he won't concede until after a recanvass (scheduled for Nov. 12th) is complete. Barr vaguely sounded like he might be interested in a rematch, saying ""the cause will continue... and you can count on me whether I'm in Congress, a citizen, or a candidate for Congress."
  • NC-02: A lot of roundups keep forgetting this race, but Dem Rep. Bob Etheridge has not conceded to Renee Ellmers - and in fact, he's already filed a request for a recount. As long as the margin stays under 1% (as it is now), Etheridge is automatically entitled to have the votes tallied a second time. Even so, the gap right now is quite wide - 1,646 votes - but it seems like Dems are pinning their hopes on more errors like the one on election night, where Samson County failed to report votes from three of four early voting sites. Once these were added to the tally, Etheridge gained 453 votes. Still, he's got a long way to go.
  • NY-01: Dem Rep. Tim Bishop's lawyers are apparently headed to court today, seeking a full hand recount of all the ballots cast in this race. (And he's raising money for the cause, too.) As you will recall, Bishop had a 3,400-vote lead on election night, but somehow that has since swung all the way to a 383-vote advantange for Randy Altschuler. New York finally moved to a modern, scantron-type ballot system this year; problems with the transition are being blamed for all kinds of issues. As for absentees, Hotline says: "There are approximately 10,000 absentee ballots still to be counted; 4,200 from voters of parties that endorsed Altschuler and 3,900 from voters of parties that endorsed Bishop."
  • NY-25: Dem Rep. Dan Maffei trails Ann Marie Buerkle by 659 votes, but the AP says that "more than 7,000 absentee and other ballots remain outstanding and most won't be counted until Nov. 15." Also note that military and overseas ballots have until Nov. 24th to come in, which could be a factor if the race tightens. However, an analysis in AuburnPub.com suggests that if the absentees follow the same pattern as votes cast on election day, Buerkle's lead will actually increase a bit.
  • TX-27: Dem Rep. Solomon Ortiz is gearing up to request a recount, but this one looks pretty hopeless. There are fewer votes remaining to be counted (and this includes provisionals, which are subject to getting tossed) than separate Ortiz from Blake Farenthold. Oritz is alleging irregularities at the polls, but local officials haven't heard any such reports.
  • VA-11: As we mentioned yesterday, Republican Keith Fimian is conceding the race to Rep. Gerry Connolly.
  • WA-02: As we mentioned yesterday, the AP has called the race for Dem Rep. Rick Larsen over John Koster.
  • DavidNYC :: Over-Time 2.0
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    Over-Time 2.0 | 159 comments
    I guess
    So if things continue on course (which is a very large "if"), it's looking like Dems retain CA-11, CA-20, and KY-06, while the GOP picks up IL 8, NY 1, NY 25, NC 8, and TX 27; that'd be +64 for the election overall.

    Yeah
    If any go the other way, it'll probably NY 1.

    [ Parent ]
    I tend to think...
    Seems like IL-08 is at least as likely to break for Team Blue considering a lot of the uncounted ballots are from Cook County.

    20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

    [ Parent ]
    2011 Races
    What are the significant races for November 2011?

    I read that KY, LA, and MS will hold elections for Governor this year.  Hmm, those states tend to be consistently red.  So I understand why those races don't have the prominence of the Governor races in VA and NJ.

    How about mayoral elections?  What are the biggest cities that will have elections in 2011?

    Are there any other races of national significance that I'm missing?


    Philadelphia Mayor, 2011.
    The Dem primary in May will likely settle it.

    [ Parent ]
    Well KY will be very significant, and MS might be......
    It's a Dem incumbent running for reelection in KY, so it will be closely watched.

    And MS is open, people will track it early to see how competitive the Democrats are there this time.

    VA has state legislative and local elections which could be a potential bellwether for Obama and Webb in 2012.  My view is that the wave is completely over, and we'll have a largely status quo election next fall.  I'm hopeful VA Dems can win back a few Assembly seats and just hold steady in the state Senate.  We've got a few seats in Fairfax County and Hampton Roads that are winnable, including my own district HD-34.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    McDonnell and Cuccinelli
    Speaking of VA, what are the approval numbers of McDonnell and Cuccinelli?  Both politicians have been very politically extreme?  Are they STILL popular somehow?

    [ Parent ]
    VA
    PPP just went in the field today to start polling so we'll see the approval numbers they come up with. If I had to guess I would think that McDonnell is still in the mid-50s for approval while Cuccinelli is a more even split, maybe even slightly negative, with more undecideds.  

    [ Parent ]
    My guess
    My guess is that McDonnell is likely about 53/41/6 approve and Cooch is about 45/45/10. Cooch is loved by the base obviously but those that know of him and don't like him have very high negative reactions to him. I personally know a lot of Republicans who are quite afraid of him and would prefer a generic Republican to him for a statewide race. That said, I am not sure that he is that well known apart from us partisans as McDonnell is. In this year's political climate he would have been able to win statewide but in 2013 or another year when there is less favorable of a climate he would be harder pressed to win statewide again. Lots of factors would be in play such as his opponent, the economy and what he runs for again (what I wouldn't give for him to run against Perriello, talk about a matchup here).

    28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

    [ Parent ]
    I think you and Addicted to Politics are both right, but regarding NoVA Republicans...
    ...there are still a lot of old-school establishment conservatives who don't like the "movement" conservatives like Cooch.  That doesn't mean they won't vote for him over a Democrat, but he's definitely a problem for NoVA Republicans trying to keep margins down up here.

    Honestly I can see someone like McAuliffe, with a strong campaign infrastructure and fundraising, beating someone like Cooch in a neutral environment.  McDonnell would have crushed TMac the same as he crushed Deeds, but Cooch is much more polarizing and 2013 won't give the GOP a tailwind.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Among Adults...
    I'm sure Cooch has way more undecided.  Even when you try to get on the news as much as him, a bet at least 20% don't know/don't have an opinion.  Even RVs probably have higher unknowns. McDonnell too.  

    NJ Numbers from Q today:
    Christie Approval 51-38
    Would he make a good Prez? 24-61
    Will he run? 21-60

    Menendez 38-41
    Lautenberg 43-44
    Obama 46-50


    [ Parent ]
    Menendez
    Menendez's numbers among Democrats are only 57-17 approval so I'd assume those would go up as the campaigning starts. Still, not a great starting place to be in for him.

    The Obama numbers are about where I'd expect them to be right now.  


    [ Parent ]
    Probably almost all incumbent Dem Senators have low job approvals right now, and the cure...
    ...is simply an improved economy combined with a 112th Congress whose priorities prove to be things that won't hurt Democrats.  If the story of the next Congress is a failed attempt to scale back health care reform, or failed attempts to do other things Democrats oppose, or bipartisan agreement on some things, all of that frankly takes the heat off of us.

    Really, that's the blessing in disguise for Obama and Democratic Senators the next couple years:  the heat is off Team Blue.  Our supermajorities created unrealistic expectations to deliver more than was possible.  Now expectations will be very low, with very little expected of top Dem priorities.  That just plain makes it easier on our elected officials' public image.

    I think by summer we'll already see our Senators' job approvals inching up, and by this time next year we'll be in decent shape.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Virginia
    Redistricting is not going to be kind to the Dems. The fast-growing exurban areas (Loudoun, Prince William, and some of the outer counties) are going to be pulling seats from the rest of the state (SWVA, Hampton Roads, even Fairfax).

    In the House, I expect the numbers not to move very much; any seats the Dems pick up from the 2009 losses will be counteracted by losses in the rest of the state.

    The Senate is a big problem for Dems. Currently they have a 22-18 majority with a lot of Senators that are vulnerable - Phil Puckett, Chuck Colgan, Edd Houck, Roscoe Reynolds, and John Miller, for a start. They're pretty much maxed out as far as gains are concerned, though they may be able to carve out one or two more seats they can win. To be honest, I'd be surprised if they hold the Senate past 2011.


    [ Parent ]
    This is all very depressing. I hope somehow you're proven wrong. (nm)
    nm

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Chicago has its mayoral election in 2011


    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    2011 Louisiana stuff
    Governor Bobby Jindal, should he run for reelection (as he keeps saying he will) should have an easy win.  However, the education cuts are likely to hurt him, and I can see them giving him a less than stellar victory.  Still, unless things get worse, it's very hard to see him losing.

    The Louisiana legislature is up too.  The House has a nominal Dem plurality with a GOP speaker: it's expected to switch to the Republicans for the first time since Reconstruction.  Due to party switches it may go to them before the election.

    The State Senate has a larger Dem majority (22-16) but I'd be surprised if we hold in after the election.  

    The Republicans have every statewide office but Mary Landrieu's and AG Buddy Caldwell's.  Caldwell's a very conservative Democrat and pretty popular, but he should be prepared for some sort of challenge just in case.  The other statewides should be fine for reelection, though you never know.

    One final note: Louisiana will hold its elections in early October.  If in a given race no one wins >50% the top two candidates, regardless of party, will face off in a run-off in November.  

    21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



    [ Parent ]
    Jindal
    Didn't Jindal earn a lot of praise for his handling of the BP Oil leak?  If so, I could see why he's going into reelection strong.

    [ Parent ]
    He did: he was popular before but this certainly gave him a boost
    I haven't seen any recent polling on his approvals now, but I imagine they're still pretty strong.  However, the education mess is front page news in Louisiana, so I'm guessing his numbers will fall to a still good but less lofty place.  

    21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



    [ Parent ]
    Landrieu
    What do you think are Landrieu's chances when she comes up in 2014? Is she going to be like Blanche was in 2010?

    Also, does Mitch Landrieu have ambition for statewide office, or is he content to stay mayor of New Orleans?  


    [ Parent ]
    There are persistant, but unconfirmed rumors Mary Landrieu will retire
    2014 is so long away we have no idea what things will be like.  She'll probably have a tough time but she's used to tough elections.  And Ras, of all people, has her approvals at a remarkably strong 56% as of October.  http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

    Bottom line: if she runs for reelection she may or may not win but I doubt she will get Blanched: she knows how to run a campaign and she'll have Blanche's experience as a guide for what not to do.  

    As for Mitch running statewide: he was already Lt.Gov twice so he probably does have some ambitions.  But right now he seems happy where he is, so he's probably off the table until 2018 when his term as Mayor is over.  

    21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



    [ Parent ]
    2018??
    How long are these mayoral terms?..

    [ Parent ]
    btw
    The 56% favorable rating is from a Rass poll of October of 2008. Things might have changed since then, especially with HCR and her being in the middle of it.  

    [ Parent ]
    4 years
    He was elected 2010.  Assuming he gets reelected and fills out his second term he's there until 2018.  Of course that's a lot of assumptions: there's no reason to assume he won't try for a different office mid-way through.

    21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



    [ Parent ]
    Obviously that was supposed to be a reply to your above comment
    Thanks for catching the year.  Obviously that will change a bit of my above analysis...

    21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



    [ Parent ]
    San Francisco elects its next mayor next year.


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    28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


    [ Parent ]
    Maffei Requests Hand Recount
    Looks like Maffei is taking a page out of Bishop's book. He's asked for a hand recount of absentees ballots, which could drag into December if granted. Also, it seems his volunteers have been calling absentee voters to see how they voted. While this is legal, I'm not sure what purpose this serves or how ethical it is. Looks like we could be in for a long one here regardless.

    Link: http://www.syracuse.com/news/i...


    Huh?
    If absentee votes have not been counted yet, how could he be asking for a recount already?  

    [ Parent ]
    My fault
    Hand counting of absentees, not "re"counting.  

    [ Parent ]
    AK-SEN question
    Big John Cornyn and Jim "Crème" DeMenthe both sending fundraising emails on his behalf to help with recount efforts
    Fundraising for money to go to Miller or to the NRSC?

    So NRSC is still Team Miller?
    If DeMint's last minute "Hail Mary" doesn't work, and I suspect it won't, I'm really looking forward to Lisa Murkowski being quite the thorn on his, McConnell's, and Cornyn's sides. IMHO she may end up being to them what Joe Lieberman has been to Dems since 2007.

    Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
    24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


    [ Parent ]
    they are. He was the party's nominee
    And the conservative base pressed them to stick with him now.

    [ Parent ]
    it seems more like a move to appease tea-baggers
    If the Democrat is already out of the way, no point in further damaging NRSC standing with their base of crazy.

    [ Parent ]
    Campaign pollsters rip public pollsters, especially robopollsters......
    Pretty good piece:

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

    I'm relieved to see bad polling called out.  There's a lot of it.  Rasmussen really is guilty of the worst, but everyone ought to be more transparent about methodology.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    Thank you...
    And you know I 100% agree.

    So now that the election has happened, we can look at the actual results and see where these pollsters got it completely wrong.

    More specifically, the campaign pollsters urged journalists to hold public polls to disclosure standards of the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) that call on pollsters to release details such as the exact wording of questions, the demographics of their samples, the methods used to draw their samples and interview voters and the response rates they obtain.

    IMHO we need to see plenty more of this going forward. Again, I no longer put much weight into "polls" that don't disclose internals, methodology, and questions asked.

    Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
    24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


    [ Parent ]
    Completely wrong...
    Rasmussen, SUSA and young voters, PPP and much conventional wisdom about overwhelming Obama voter no shows.

    It looks also like pollsters did learn there at the end that not polling cellphones does lead to significantly skewed results.  In contrast, clearly there are flaws in some pollsters "likely voter" models, but I think that problem is going to stay with us and not be aknowledged as much as the obvious need to contact cellphones.


    [ Parent ]
    Chicago-Mayor: Looks like Moseley-Braun's definitely running
    Was there any doubt?


    19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

    [ Parent ]
    NY-1 Your numbers are off. I wouldn't add the Independence Party votes to Bishop
    The vast majority of people who register as members of the Independence Party in New York do so in error. A lot of people who check "Independence" on their registration form do so thinking they are registering as an independent.

    It's actually quite confusing to a lot of new voters. If the Independence Party called themselves the Reform Party they would have a lot fewer registered voters.

    I doubt that even a handful of those outstanding Independence Party voters even know who the Independence Party is let alone who the party endorsed.

    You really should count the Independence Party voters the same as the non affiliated voters.

    If you do the math that way the break down is 4,196 lean GOP ballots (42.4% of ballots outstanding) to 3,623 Dem (36.6% Dem). The rest 2,082 (21%) are independents.



    Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
    http://searchmfr.swagbucks.com...


    U.S. Attorney Patrick Fitzgerald made that exact mistake when he lived in NY......
    I remember reading sometime the past couple years that many years ago when Fitzgerald lived in New York, he errantly registered to vote as an Independence Party member, having intended to register as an "independent," i.e., under no political party.

    So yeah, easy to see this as a common mistake.  Ordinary people don't know what the third parties are.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Heh, Wiki
    has already named Andy Vidak as the rep-elect; if only Wiki made it so (from Andy's perspective, anyway, not ours).

    He's ahead by only 27 votes now (according to SoS)
    and if the reports are right (Kings is basically in and Fresno has thousands not in), then Vidak is 99% likely to lose.

    [ Parent ]
    The only major recount likely in WA is in a state supreme court race
    The margin on WA 02 is large enough and growing that a recount is extremely unlikely. I know we had a recount team here last week by my understanding is that they were dispatched elsewhere last Friday.

    There are two state house races and one state senate race where a legislative  district recount is possible but the DCCC teams don't involve themselves at that level.


    Pataki mulling Presidential Run
    Link: http://www.nbcnewyork.com/news...

    Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

    On paper the sort of candidate
    who could win in the centre, but would never get through the primaries, and if he did, he'd have thoroughly compromised himself, a la John McCain.

    [ Parent ]
    He's pro-choice, that right there is fatal. (nm)
    nm

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    He'd need to choose a pro-life right-winger for VP
    I'd speculate about Pataki's chances in a general election, but when the chances of making it out of the primary are exactly zero, that's kinda pointless, no? I guess he'd need Romney to not run to have any hope.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

    [ Parent ]
    No way he wins in the general
    Obviously he won't make it out of the primary, but as a New Yorker, I'll tell you he did absolutely nothing positive as governor. Even as Giuliani provided leadership on 9/11, Pataki did nothing. New York would never vote for him....

    NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan

    [ Parent ]
    Actually
    he did a pretty good job as Gov, especially when compared to the mess that has succeeded him. Apparently New Yorkers thought so too, electing him 3 times. I don't think he'd win NY against Obama but he would make it much closer than it otherwise will be

    [ Parent ]
    Well, in all fairness...
    Pataki's approval was never spectacular. NYC was always weary of him and that dragged-down otherwise-fine ratings upstate and in the downstate suburbs. He rode the '94 wave vs. an unpopular Cuomo in '94, ran against the weak, underfunded Peter Vallone in '98, and bested Carl McCall, embroiled in corruption controversy and broke after a contentious primary vs. Andrew Cuomo, in '02. Had the Dems fielded a halfway-decent candidate, Pataki could've lost on any of these occasions. The problem, at least in '98, was that the popular Dems (Ferraro, Schumer) were obsessed with taking out Al D'Amato first.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

    [ Parent ]
    What?
    He did a horrible job as Gov at the end. His last 4 yrs in office he basically mailed it in and allowed Silver & Bruno to do whatever they wanted (which set up the mess NYS is now in).

    Of course when compared to the Spitzer/Patterson era Pataki looks like a great Gov.

    Pataki has no shot to be President. My guess he is making noise in the hopes that if a very conservative candidate gets the GOP nod that they might pick him as VP to balance the ticket.

    I still think he would have been a lot better off running for Senate vs Gillabrand.  

    Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
    http://searchmfr.swagbucks.com...


    [ Parent ]
    If the GOP nom wanted to balance his ticket with a VP from NY
    for some unknown reason, Rudy would seem to be a better option.
    More aggressive campaigner; plus some remaining bits of 9/11 luster might help nationwide
    (helping keep terrorism fear alive).  

    [ Parent ]
    The problem with Rudy...
    He's the sort of candidate who only resonates when foreign policy or terrorism is the top issue. There's nothing in his record that screams "I'll turn the damn economy around."

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

    [ Parent ]
    He's old news
    Rudy would have a better shot.

    [ Parent ]
    Pataki is the best candidate Team Red has as of now
    And has a clear path to being in contention for the nomination if he follows it.

    It's ironic that the road to the GOP nomination runs through getting the delegates from blue states where the candidate has no chance in the general.


    [ Parent ]
    Intrade has GOP +65 or more
    at almost 100%. Do they know something that I don't, because I count only GOP +64 if all races go like projected.

    I do have an Intrade account with a bit of money in it... I'm wondering if I could make the money of my life here.

    18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)


    Yes you could make a bundle. They are ignorant and don't realize Costa will win. (nm)
    nm

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    I'm a bit annoyed that they're so
    counter-cyclical. I bought that contract for $100 already when it was at 2:1 odds because I thought that even back then it was incredibly good. Then it went to better than 3:1 and I put another $50 in it. Now it's at better than 20:1 and I freaked out at first and thought I miscounted but now I might just throw in another $100.

    18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)

    [ Parent ]
    So if you put in $100,
    you could make $2,000?

    [ Parent ]
    Yup.
    At current odds it's close to $2,500.

    18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)

    [ Parent ]
    D'oh!!!
    Wish I had an account and some cash there. But it looks like it takes a while to transfer cash in... :(

    [ Parent ]
    ......and now Vidak's lead down to 27 votes. Costa will overtake by tomorrow. (nm)
    nm

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    The reason it is trading so high has to do with the contract rules.
    "At the time this market was opened the Republicans held 177 seats. The net gain of seats will be calculated using this figure."

    If Republicans get to 242, that will be considered a 65 seat gain as far as Intrade is concerned.  It is very misleading since this is not the way the gain is being discussed in the news.


    [ Parent ]
    The Contract rules for individual intrade contracts need to be read
    "At the time this market was opened the Republicans held 177 seats. The net gain of seats will be calculated using this figure."

    This means they only need to net +63 from election 2010 to strike the +65 contract at 100.

    This is the same issue that caused confusion with their senate contracts. They strike the "neither party has control" contract if the senate is broke 50-50, ignoring the vice president.  


    [ Parent ]
    Thanks, that's critical. (nm)
    nm

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Well, even that isn't at 97% yet with
    Bishop and Bean races still in the air. Things certainly don't look that good then.

    The odds for their Senate contracts prior to the election WERE fucked up though, with Dems in control at 50% when it was clear that the Dems would keep the Senate. The stuff I put into the GOP house gains were just my gains from the 2010 election, so I won't be too sad if I lose that contract.

    18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)


    [ Parent ]
    PPP Obama re-elect numbers
    first 6 states:

    http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

    2010 voters in Colorado, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania all say they'd prefer a generic Republican to Obama in 2012. In Colorado it's a close 45/50 spread, in New Hampshire it's 40/54, and in Pennsylvania it's 42/52.

    CT, CA, IL are fine.

    If CO was 45/50 generic re-elect with the 2010 electorate, I don't think Obama will have too much trouble getting elected here in 2012 as long as things don't get worse.  PA may be tougher with a decent GOP candidate, NH could be difficult unless the GOP nominates a boner.  What the hell happened in NH?


    NH
    Well its the "live free or die" state.

    [ Parent ]
    if obama wins nationwide
    by more than a point, he'll win NH.  almost one in 2 voters are indies.  about 80% of dems support obama nationwide and 90+% of reps disapprove, while indies disapprove.  either obama gets unemployment down and indies come back, or he doesn't and New Hampshire is lead blindly by the wind... i mean they are smart intelligent voters who think and are in no way unthinking automatons easily led and manipulated by the simplest charlatan    

    Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

    [ Parent ]
    My thoughts on these PPP #s...
    The 2012 electorate will change from 2010's. That's pretty much fact. Presidential years always mean higher turnout, and quite regularly means better numbers for Democrats (since more of our voters are "infrequent voters").

    And look at the Senate results in many of these swing states. The strength of the respective state Dems' GOTV operations offer a clue as to how Obama can get more votes in these states in 2012. Right now, I'd definitely consider California and Connecticut safe for Obama, Nevada leaning towards Obama (I know his approval numbers aren't great here, but Sharrrrrrrrrrron Angle proved that some random GOPer can't just "ride the wave" to victory), and Colorado perhaps tilting slightly towards Obama, and Pennsylvania and New Hampshire in tossup territory.

    Again, good GOTV will probably work wonders in Nevada and Colorado, and may yet save Pennsylvania for Obama as well. New Hampshire, on the other hand, really comes down to whether Obama can mend fences with Independents and whether the GOP blows it with them by nominating a tea-nut like Palin or "holy roller" like Huckabee.

    Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
    24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


    [ Parent ]
    I flat-out call Nevada "lean Dem" for both Obama and the Senate race......
    The state has become more Democratic in voting behavior than people realize.  The last 2 cycles establish that.  IMO that the state resisted the Republican tide downballot is actually a stronger illustration of that than Harry Reid's win.

    I actually think we're more likely to take NV-Sen than MA-Sen in 2012, although I would bet we'll end up taking both.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    I think you're right
    NV-SEN will either have very unpopular Ensign (unlikely) or be pretty much an open seat in a Presidential year.  In MA, Scott Brown is actually still very popular.  In a Suffolk poll in October he was 54/29, better than Kerry (49/36) or Obama (51/44)!  It was a likely voter poll for the 2010 electorate, but still, I don't have illusions that Brown will be removed effortlessly.

    [ Parent ]
    So--Dina Titus for Senate?
    Or--Rory?

    Or--Shelley Berkley?


    [ Parent ]
    Shelley Berkley is the frontrunner...
    Right now. It all comes down to her final decision and Dean Heller's final decision. If Heller runs and the GOP field is cleared for him (sans Ensign, who looks to be primaried a la Gibbons), then Shelley probably steps aside and lets Secretary of State Ross Miller or Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto take a shot at NV-Sen (if they so choose, but they may also be leery of challenging Heller).

    But if Heller sits this out or Heller runs but faces a strong "tea" fueled challenge from Sharrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrron Angle (yet again) and/or Danny Tarkanian, then Shelley is definitely in the Dem field will probably be cleared for her.

    As I said last week, Rory Reid and Dina Titus are probably gone. Yes, Dina is thinking of running for NV-03 or the new NV-04 in 2012, but I have a feeling she'll reconsider once the powers that be muscle in an establishment approved/anointed Dem for NV-04. (And unless Obama really wins Nevada in a HUGE landslide in 2012, the new NV-03 may be too GOP leaning to topple Joe Heck.)

    Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
    24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


    [ Parent ]
    Berkley seems like the logical choice.
    A liberal counterpart to Reid's centrist politics.

    [ Parent ]
    Republicans have a strong bench
    in Nevada for 2012, starting with Krolicki and Heller. I think either one of them would have beaten Reid fairly handily. Reid won this year because of his money/machine and Angle being a crazy.

    I think a mainstream, well-known Republican in '12 has a very good shot at holding that seat, especially given the options Democrats have. Titus just lost and Berkely is too liberal for the state as a whole. Beyond maybe SoS Miller there isn't a big name Democrat that will clear the field.  


    [ Parent ]
    Think again...
    Berkely is too liberal for the state as a whole

    Republicans like to say that about Shelley Berkley, but IMHO they'd be stupid to underestimate her. She's quietly been raising her profile statewide and highlighting her pro-gun/pro-business record. That's the key to winning statewide... Well, that and having the solid backing of gaming and mining.

    And guess what? After infamously trying to defeat her in 1998, Steve Wynn made his peace with Shelley. And MGM Resorts and Harrah's clearly have her back.

    Again, Shelley will probably sit it out IF Heller jumps in and looks like the clear GOP frontrunner. But if he sits it out or he jumps in but the teabaggers target him, she will jump in and have quite the formidable allies on her side.

    Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
    24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


    [ Parent ]
    Why is Heller so intimidating?
    He is a standard issue conservative in a state that is currently voting quite Democratic.  He is from Washoe County, when all the money and the votes are in Clark County.  It's a presidential year, so the turnout problem is solved for her.

    Why decline a Senate seat for Heller?

    Would the gaming lobby back Heller against Berkley?  Would they even care which of those two won?

    28, gay guy, Democrat, CA-08


    [ Parent ]
    Well, Clark can only take a Democrat so far in Nevada.
    Gore and Kerry both won Clark but still lost the state. Obama won Clark but also managed to turn Washoe (and also Carson City) and win.

    My blog
    Twitter
    Scribd
    28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


    [ Parent ]
    Washoe is the swing, but not always......
    Usually the state follows Washoe, with Clark and the rurals cancelling out.  Reid won the state 50-45, and Washoe 50-45.  Obama won the state 55-43, and Washoe 55-43.  Kerry lost the state 51-48, and Washoe 51-47.  BUT Gibbons beat Titus in NV-Gov 2006 by a lot more in Washoe than statewide, with Titus pulling in a bigger margin in Clark than a Democrat normally gets there.  So there are exceptions.

    If Heller is the Republican nominee, then Dems need someone who can really destroy him in Clark by a record margin.  In a Presidential year that might be doable, but not easy.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    I am curious as to where we stand in holding the Senate long term
    I was relieved that we didn't hold it this time by a 51 or 52 seat margin, but 54 seats still gives little leeway for bad cycles (I was hoping for 55 or 56, which would've been possible if Sestak and Giannoulis had won), and we have two Dem heavy cycles on the horizon which only adds to that anxiety.

    In 2012, I expect Brown to be heavily targeted, but that race would still be tilt R to lean R at the moment given the state's preference for its incumbents.  Other than that, NV is the only other race that we can reasonably expect to knock a Republican off of.  In exchange, we stand to lose Webb, possibly Tester, and possibly McCaskill.  I really feel like Obama should be using OFA to target Virginia, Missouri, Nevada and Montana in some sort of implicit coordination with the DSCC since they're going for the same people to GOTV, but I'm not sure what the rules are in that respect.  I would really hope that someone could be strong enough to knock out one of the Maine twins, since they seem to represent the lowest hanging fruit with regards to Senate seats and it would be enough to potentially offset losing Ben Nelson.

    In 2014, we're looking to lose at least a couple of seats the way one can reasonably project.  Begich won only barely against Ted Stevens, and I am assuming Parnell may or may not want to take a crack at running (if not, I apologize for not knowing Alaskan politics that well), in which case the generic R lean of that state puts him in a good position to do so.  Hagan has to deal with the NC Senate curse (broken only this year by milquetoast Burr), and the midterm in general may make it a hard hold on Shaheen.  If we don't lose the Senate in 2012, 2014 is likely the year it may happen.

    In 2016, though, I'm assuming things will get a lot better.  There are enough flawed candidates from the Republicans in this cycle (although they almost certainly will now become more mainstream) to make a real race out of many of them.  The idea is basically for Democrats to stanch the losses in the next two cycles so that they can make up ground when this cycle comes up again.  At some point in time here, potentially as early as 2012 or 2014, I imagine the Democrats will be in a position close enough to take the House as well.


    [ Parent ]
    We have 53, not 54. (nm)
    nm

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    That just makes it harder >_>


    [ Parent ]
    114th Senate
    I honestly see no realistic way of holding the 114th senate, outside a massive generic ballot advantage. I looked at the 2014 map ... and it is worse than the 2012 map.

    We have no practical way of holding Alaska even if we pushed are generic up to +18.

    Max Baucus tanked his approvals by spending months in healthcare, so that seat is in danger. The good I see here is the red-ward trend in 2010 did not hit Montana as hard as other states. The Republican in the  Montana at large seat won by a smaller margin in 2010 than in 2008. That at least is slightly indicative of a local blue trending continuing, but being vastly overpowered by the national red trend in 2010.  

    Tim Johnson is going to be in serious danger unless the generic ballot is so bad for Republicans no one even bothers to run. He obvious has very significant health issues... and our only bench in South Dakota is Stephanie.

    North Carolina isn't trending blue fast enough to save Kay Hagan in a neutral environment.

    Mary Landrieu won't have a shot unless the generic ballot is about +15 due to the very fast right trend in Louisiana. Some people (the people that still thought Vitter would lose in August of 2010) seem to forget that a lot of Democrats left the state due to Katrina. Mary Landrieu barely won in 2008 against an opponent with no money and a +10.5 generic advantage. The local climate for Democrats will almost undoubtedly be worse in Louisiana in 2014. The national trend is still up in the air, but it would have to be huge to overpower the local trend.

    Iowa could theoretically be dangerous if there is a retirement, as Harkin will be nearly 75 election day 2014. This likely isn't going to be a tipping point seat for majority control through.

    New Hampshire is toast if we don't have some type of generic edge with Independents, since they make up about 40-45% of the electorate.

    Arkansas is scary with Mark Pryor. It is a little soon to predict this one is hopeless, but I don't see any reason to be optimistic. At least Pryor is young here, so retirement seems very unlikely.

    West Virgina reminds me of Arkansas here. This one could be impossible to hold in any environment if Rockefeller retires, as he will be 77 on election day 2014, unless we can synthesize another Democratic governor with 75% approval ratings.  

    New Jersey could be horrible if the environment isn't positive as it will almost certainly be an open seat. Frank Lautenberg will be 90 on election day 2014 if he runs.

    These are only the first and second tier ones. Minnesota, Virginia, and Michigan could all be classified as a third tier... but if we are losing states like that then we would be debating our ability to fend off super-minority status like we were with Republicans in 2008.  


    [ Parent ]
    2014 is a long way away
    Some of your speculation seems quite premature, especially on states like NJ and NH.

    WA-07, 34 years old

    [ Parent ]
    NJ and NH are just the bottom falling out scenarios
    At one point just last year it seemed impossible for us to lose the House too, so it would be wise to look at these worst case scenarios with a reasonable skepticism but also with a reasonable caution.


    [ Parent ]
    Landrieu and Johnson would've been tossups/barely leaning D in a neutral year
    Johnson was apparently popular owing to his surgery but he could still face stiff challenges and the Dakotas are starting to move away from us.  The biggest problem for Democrats in the next two cycles is that there really isn't much fertile ground to compete in to offset losses that are almost certain to happen.  I really do like most of our Senators, but at least 5 of them can easily be classified as "lost" or "potentially going to lose" in the next 4 years, and I'm finding it hard to look for at least 3 GOP seats we can take within that same time frame.  

    That being said, this all boils down to trying to win it all back in 2016.  It's going to be a Presidential year and, if this mirrors 2000 in any way, we're probably going to at least be very competitive in winning back seats.  None of the freshman are goners per se, but I see pretty big targets painted on the backs of Johnson, Toomey, Paul, potentially Kirk (he'd still be hard pressed to win in a high turnout election), Blunt, and even the likes of Burr.  Ayotte can stay clear of this if she plays her cards right.  


    [ Parent ]
    Yeah
    Just looking at trends:

    Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico (all Bush states) seem to be heading D quickly. I think the right Republican can still win there (Rick Perry? not sure), but its not going to carry them over 270.

    McCain's 173 + 27 (FL) + 15 (NC) + 13 (VA) + 11 (IN) + 20 (OH) = 259.

    From there, I think a GOP candidate is more likely to win one or all the long term Dem states of either PA, WI, MI to carry them over 270. They pretty much swept this region last week.


    [ Parent ]
    I think Romney could win Nevada and Colorado
    Though, in all fairness, I think he'd struggle in Virginia. My hunch is the GOP only has a shot at New Mexico if they nominate an Hispanic candidate for VP.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

    [ Parent ]
    Same here...
    IMHO Romney is the GOP's only chance of winning Nevada, but it's a rather slim chance since Romney's strength in Nevada (his Mormon ties) is a HUGE weakness elsewhere and will probably cost him the GOP nomination. (Remember, Southern "Christianists" HATE Mormons.)

    Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
    24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


    [ Parent ]
    Wrong
    Such an accusation is highly inflammatory. They disagree on theology. Hate has nothing to do with it.  

    [ Parent ]
    "Christianists"?
    It's Christians, bud. Let's be respectful. And it's not "hate," it's distrust. Southerners are naturally reactionary, so yes, Romney would not go over well, especially in the Deep South.

    I don't see a path to the Republican nomination for Romney because the GE would be disastrous for the Party.


    [ Parent ]
    Christians and Christianists
    Christians and Christianists: they're two different things. Christians is a neutral term denoting anyone who basically claims to be a follower of Jesus or goes to a Christian church. Christianists is a far different term, usually derogatory, that denotes those who use Christian rhetoric to advance a hard-right social conservative agenda.

    And I don't think it's hate or distrust. I think it's ignorance. But, potato, potatoe. The point is that his magic underwear would be a drag on him in the South, but help in the West.

    Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


    [ Parent ]
    Christianism
    Just fyi...Apparently, it was coined in 2003 by gay "conservative" blogger Andrew Sullivan, who defined it thusly:  "the fringes of the religious right who have used the Gospels to perpetuate their own aspirations for power, control and oppression."

    Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C...

    As Gandhi once said: "I like your Christ, I do not like your Christians. Your Christians are so unlike your Christ."

    Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


    [ Parent ]
    "Naturally reactionary"
    = hate


    21,Democrat, NY-02, male

    [ Parent ]
    Christianist.
       I think that the Republican party should be identified correctly as "Christianist." The term describes a party dominated by those subscribing to one religion who also bring their religion into politics.

      The ruling party is Turkey is called "Islamist," but that is much more moderate the American Republican party.

     Just look at exit polls. Non-Christian voters are very anti-Republican. As a non-Christian myself, we hear the message loud and clear from the Republicans: we are not welcome.

    24, Male, GA-05


    [ Parent ]
    I've never heard a Christian use this term...
    ...so the "Islamists" analogy is specious.

    There is a polite effort to always stay on topic here, so with respect to the South, religion and politics have always been intertwined but never has violence been adopted as a philosophy as is the case with some political parties in the Middle East. While the term fundamentalist is derived from Protestant politics of the early 20th century (read: Prohibitionism), I find that the definition of "extreme" definitely belongs to the politics of the Middle East, particularly Iran, Syria and Afghanistan.

    What I really mean to say is that the term "Christianist" insults me as a Bible-believing Christian and partisan Democrat. It's a combination of the "ist" in "Satanist" and "Christian." I prefer it not be used here.

    Folks who vote Republican and are Christian are entitled to be that and vote that way. As far as folks, Christians and non-believers alike, who say that to be Republican and Christian are mutually inclusive my thought has generally been that they're indoctrinated one way or the other.  


    [ Parent ]
    Not specious.
       The term Christianist has nothing to do with the south or violence.

     The "because I have never heard a Christian use it" is precisely a specious argument.  

       This has nothing to do with the term "Satanist." The ist suffix is used here to put distance from Christianity. Christianists, like Islamists, want the tenants of the faith enshrined in law. A Christianist is a Christian theocrat.   Being a biblebelieving Christian does not make you a Christianist. I can see why this terminology would make theocrats like Mike Huckabee uncomfortable. I do not see how this value-neutral terminology would offend anyone, particularly those Christians who do not believe the bible is the law of the land.

    24, Male, GA-05


    [ Parent ]
    I was referring...
    ...to the original use of the term in this thread here. The tenets of Judeo-Christianity are already enshrined in law, as much common law is derived from Leviticus and Deuteronomy (books of the Bible).

    If Christians don't use the term "Christianists," then the term can safely be described as an epithet.

    I don't think you know what you're talking about because you spelled "tenets" wrong, and the term "value-neutral" doesn't mean anything. No word in the English language is "value-neutral." That's a dumb defense of an insult which is based on ignorance of folks and their voting habits. The idea if you don't understand something is to learn more about it before you insult it.


    [ Parent ]
    OK.
       Thanks for the lesson, spelling and otherwise. A Christianist is a theocrat, that's all. Feel free to be angry about it. You're obviously really defensive about your faith and I apologize for hitting a nerve.

    24, Male, GA-05

    [ Parent ]
    This discussion is off-topic
    But just as a historical correction:

    with respect to the South, religion and politics have always been intertwined but never has violence been adopted as a philosophy as is the case with some political parties in the Middle East.

    I would have to disagree. The Ku Klux Klan certainly intertwined an appeal based on religion with a strategy of violence. So there is a previous history of an association of religion and violence in the South (and other parts of the U.S.), and during most of that period, the party that supported the violence was the Democratic Party!

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  


    [ Parent ]
    The Midwest.
    Wisconsin, Iowa and Michigan aren't givens for Obama either. Wisconsin moving the fastest towards to GOP of the three.  

    [ Parent ]
    we can determine
    nothing about 2012 from these results. Obama won Wisconsin by 16 points. Now, it's mostly Republican. This means it's a swing state. Voting patterns do not change in only 2 years.

    [ Parent ]
    it's just idle speculation
    I'm sure the Obama team and loads of the R teams are going over the same thoughts.

    If you're the Republican party, you pretty much have little shot at winning the West coast, Illinois, or the Northeast in a Presidential content.

    The Republican party has pretty much only won 1 of the last 5 presidential elections. I'm sure the Democrats of 1990 was thinking the same thing, of course.


    [ Parent ]
    WI over the last few cycles
    swung maybe the widest without an attribution to demographic changes out of any state.  Gore won 48-48, Kerry won 50-49, Obama 56-42.  That 2000 number exactly mirrors the popular vote total as well.

    [ Parent ]
    It's not "moving to the GOP"
    in any sense as you are saying.  Obama will run against a human being.  Wisconsin is not "moving towards" newt Gingrich.

    Has WI moved a bit towards Thune, Daniels, Pawlenty and Pataki?  Probably.

    Has WI moved toward Gingrich, Palin, Huckabee, Beck?  Hell no.

    Wisconsin is a swing state, but one definitely of of center of the midpoint of America.  It won't be competitive if the GOP nominates an extremist, but it likely will be if the GOP nominates a candidate who disappoints the extremists.


    [ Parent ]
    Romney has no particular strength in Nevada or Colorado......
    I suspect (and forgive me if I'm wrong) you're referring to Romney's Mormon faith as a selling point in those states, but Mormons already vote one-sidedly Republican no matter what, and only in safe R Utah and Idaho are they a substantial share of the electorate.  So there's no marginal gain for Romney in the emerging Democratic interior West states.

    Romney's Mormon faith doesn't gain him anything anywhere.  I also am skeptical it costs him anything in Republican primaries or in a general election, as I tend to think anti-Mormon sentiment is greatly exaggerated in the GOP and general electorates.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    You're skeptical it costs him anything in GOP primaries??
    I realize Iowa was a caucus, and there was some doubt as to Romney's sincerity on multiple issues given his previous tenure as a moderate Massachusetts Republican. But still... given that Huckabee, with no money and a glaring Achilles Heel in the form of Wayne Dumond, walked into Iowa late and smashed years of work that Romney had put into the state, I think it's clear that being a Mormon was hurting him as well.

    28, gay guy, Democrat, CA-08

    [ Parent ]
    Huckabee won because the Iowa GOP is disproportionately dominated by fundies......
    The uncommonly large Christian fundie influence in the party combined with a caucus discouraging soft partisans and non-activist partisans is what gave Huckabee Iowa, and he would've won it even without Romney in it--and probably by a larger margin.

    And no I don't think Romney failing after "years of work" in Iowa leads to a conclusion that being a Mormon hurt him.  He put in years of work in NH, too, and fell apart there the same as Iowa even though there is very little Christian fundie influence there, and indeed the state had a Mormon Congressman in Dick Swett, a Democrat no less, as recently as the 90s.

    I think Romney's Mormon faith is greatly overstated as a liability; I really don't think people care.  Yes some fundies care, but the fundies are a bloc and care about a lot of things that aren't decisive in Republican primaries.

    Romney is hurt by being a disingenuous flip-flopper, that was his big liability last time.  And this time he faces that and Romneycare and being an "establishment" figure in the face of anti-establishment teabagger sentiment.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Saying Latinos will vote for the GOP
    if they have a Latino VP nominee is like saying that women or blacks will vote for them based on the same facts.  It is not automatically true and remember, there is "no" Latino race.  Americans lump them together for expediency because they do not have the same issues.  In some states (i.e. Florida), Cubans are conferred "white" status but this is not true for others.

    41 African-American Female DC
    Taxation but no representation...


    [ Parent ]
    You forget the cenus..
    With the Census and redistrict the electoral numbers change by 10 electoral votes I think.  

    [ Parent ]
    Yup, good catch, but I don't think the change is 10......
    FL gains 2 and OH loses 2, and I'm pretty sure the rest of those flipped states stay the same.  Among the 3 Western Obama states, NV gains one, but that's it.  So it's still 258 for a GOPer, just one shy of 259.  WI would not put a Republican over the top, but PA or MI would.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    FYI
    I think Romney would be really competitive in Michigan if he won the nomination. Given his native ties to the area he could provide headaches there. However with what is likely to emerge from the GOP primary I really doubt that we'd have to worry about him emerging. The Romneycare/Obamacare comparisons are going to do him in. He is hated by the base too because he is a "liberal RINO" so I have a hard time seeing him win unless the teabagger vote is split multiple ways. I also believe that the census is going to add about 8 votes to the McCain total with the bulk being in Texas. That said of your Bush states I don't see NM, NV and CO easily going back to red. I see where you are going with VA, NC and OH but those are pure toss ups right now. Too far out to see what will happen but it is still fun to speculate!

    28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

    [ Parent ]
    Romney's path is the same one McCain took...
    ...have the tebagger vote split, and sail in with about 35% of the vote.

    Romney's problem is with the new primary format the GOP has adopted.  They've reduced the "winner-take-all" states in an attempt to actually extend the primary, vis-a-vis the democrats in 2008.   That will hurt Mitt a lot... he won't be able to escape the caucus states this time around like McCain did.  With the teabaggers in full force and angry over the GOP's refusal to accept all their demands in this congress, Romney has an uphill path indeed!


    [ Parent ]
    McCain states projected to gain 6 EVs, not 8......
    Projections are TX gets 4, and McCain states AZ, GA, SC, and UT each gain one.  That's 8, but McCain states LA and MO each is projected to lose a seat--although there is debate between MO and MN, and that of course is key since one state is red and the other blue.

    So it will be 6 or 7, but going by MO losing a seat as the most recent projection, I'm guessing 6.

    I'm skeptical that Romney would carry any special weight in MI.  I don't know that he's a beloved native son akin to Hawaii embracing Obama.  It's been a loooooong time since Romney lived in MI, his dad George is unfamiliar to all but the oldest voters, and the "business experience" some in the political media like to tout has never been a persuasive selling point with voters for any candidate.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Thanks for the update
    On the EVs. 6 isn't a huge insurmountable obstacle for the number of EVs to swing the other way. Krazen talked about the GOPs need to win one of MI, WI or PA to get over 270 and to me Romney in MI is probably the most likely scenario right now for any GOP nominee to win one those states but agreed that its early and unlikely that since he was born there and his dad was Governor a while ago that it would carry a significant amount of weight. Can't hurt him there but in a hypothetical Obama vs. Romney MI matchup right now it would likely be lean Dem.  

    28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

    [ Parent ]
    Michigan
    I don't think Romney carries any real weight in Michigan.

    I think its more likely that the state's economic abyss over Granholm's term leads them to try something different. Oh, and population loss in the Detroit area.

    You're right, VA, NC, OH are all tossups. FL and IN have to be considered R leaning a bit, though, and the rest of the Rust Belt (ie MI, WI, PA) is not exactly where Obama's strength is.


    [ Parent ]
    Plus, his father was Gov of MI decades ago.
    Mitt(ens) is much more attached to MA even though he won't win there statewide in a prez race.

    Also, his calling for letting the car industry die instead of loaning them money and implementing restructuring plans did him no favors.

    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!


    [ Parent ]
    I don't see how NC can be a tossup at the same time as FL is Lean R.
    In fact I'd reverse those.  Going into an election with an unknown but not generic R, I'd put Wisconsin, Iowa, and Pennsylvania at Lean D, Colorado and Florida as tossups, and Ohio and Virginia at Lean R.  NC and IN are Likely R, NV and NM are Likely D.

    Honestly, Ohio ought to be given the option to vote for no one.  That state has suffered longer and harder than any one place ought to.  I wish I could say they should just vote for progressive Dems, but the president is in South Korea soon to arrange another free trade deal, so it's hard to argue that either Clinton or Obama were particularly good for the place.  Better than Bush and Portman, yes, but that's kindof a low bar.  

    28, gay guy, Democrat, CA-08


    [ Parent ]
    In this case the D is known
    Kerry got 47% of the vote in Florida, and Obama got 51%. That's only a 4% gain.

    Kerry got 44% of the vote in NC while Obama got 50%. That's a 6% gain.

    It's kind of hand waving, I suppose, but its my view that Virginia/North Carolina have a large influx of younger people that leaned pretty heavily Obama in the 2008 cycle.

    Florida still is a senior citizen and Cuban stronghold, and the Democratic party just got utterly obliterated there.

    The deciding factor in PA is usually the economically conservative Philadelphia suburbs (Bucks, Delaware, Montgomery counties). Toomey did well enough here to let the rest of the state carry him to victory.


    [ Parent ]
    Romney in Michigan
    I'm skeptical that Romney would carry any special weight in MI.  I don't know that he's a beloved native son akin to Hawaii embracing Obama.  It's been a loooooong time since Romney lived in MI, his dad George is unfamiliar to all but the oldest voters, and the "business experience" some in the political media like to tout has never been a persuasive selling point with voters for any candidate.

    It isn't Obama-Hawaii level, but there are still some ties.  I'm not old enough to remember his Father, but the connection gets repeated in all sorts of media stories as the make-it-local angle, and he does still have relatives involved with the State party.  Romneys have run for Senate and Attorney General fairly recently, and I think they've held state legislative office.

    Business experience certainly does matter -- it is the reason Rick Snyder just won the governor race so convincingly.  (About 10 points ahead of the rest of the Republican ticket.)


    [ Parent ]
    That's
    way, way too pessimistic. If nothing else, you are assuming that Arizona and Georgia don't become swing states. Obama lost Arizona by one nine points when one of the state's senators was at the top of the ticket. There wasn't any formal campaign in the state like there was for, say, Colorado or New Mexico. And while Georgia is less gettable for the Democrats, but not that much less. Black turnout in the state was very high, but it probably could be higher. Obama actually won white women in the state, and while there might be some drop off because he's not as shiny as he was in 2008, he already won them, so perhaps increasing his share won't be that much of an uphill battle.  

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

    [ Parent ]
    Three Now
    Three white Rural Georgia Democrats have switched parties in the past two days.

    State Rep Alan Powell (1991), State Rep Bob Hanner (1975), State Rep Gerald Greene (1983) have all switched.

    More switches could be coming.


    Kinda of late..
    Shouldn't they have done that in 2002??  

    [ Parent ]
    Not Really
    Some actually try to change the party from within before switching. Apparently these guys finally got fed up with it. No statements from Greene or Hanner yet, but Powell has proclaimed that the Democratic Party in Georgia is  

    Powell has a fierce independent streak and has clashed with the leadership in both parties. He warned in August that if Barnes did not win, he'd consider switching.

    Also, Rural Democrats are still strong on a local level in many areas, so assuming they should have switched years ago is a little far fetched.


    [ Parent ]
    Woops
    Powell made a comment about the party being dead, but I couldn't find the link right off for it.

    [ Parent ]
    That's so fatalistic.
    I understand that the party there needs to have a more spread-out coalition in order to be competitive statewide, but jumping ship is sending the wrong message and only insulates the party further.

    I still feel that the Democratic Party in Georgia will rise again.  Deal is a corrupt ex-dixiecrat and if he is a lousy governor, the pendulum will swing back away from him (not by enough for Dems to have a Renaissance, but enough to give them a chance to surge back some).

    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!


    [ Parent ]
    We know what he means....

    These conservative Democratic state parties get defeated at the state office level and, frankly, they never really recover.  No matter how hard they try.

    After enough defeats they give up and a new generation has to rebuild from the foundations.  As a liberal-centric party, like the national one.  And that means a long time as minority party, usually.


    [ Parent ]
    What do they want?
       The Georgia Democratic party ran a diverse slate of strong candidates for statewide office this cycle and got slaughtered anyway. What do these rural Democrats want? Roy Barnes was an excellent candidate but rural voters chose the unethical Nathan Deal instead.

     The Georgia Democratic coalition has just gone from to difficult to maintain to impossible to maintain. Maybe some of the rural Democrats could share some of the blame.

      Georgia Democrats are just going to have to wait until the Atlanta suburbs swing left. Until then there is little chance of statewide victory.

    24, Male, GA-05


    [ Parent ]
    Really?
    I don't know what part of Georgia they're talking about, but party switches of this sort seem like an act of political suicide now.

    It worked when the Republican Party was popular but had no farm system of candidates in an area and little or no history of electing Republican candidates to office at the local level. Well, there's a farm system now. At this point in most of the South the are people who've grown up in the party, and they're a lot less understanding and tolerant of people who remained Democrats for this long. It looks less like a principled move and more like a desperate last gasp to stay in office, and voters hate few things more than desperate last gasps to stay in power. There are other candidates now for people who want to vote Republican, and they have no reason at all to step aside for the party switcher.  

    There are probably still a few places where switching to the GOP would work, like perhaps West Virginia, where they remain institutionally weak. And maybe wherever in Georgia these people are from is still a little like that.

    If anyone involved with Jim Webb is reading this...he's got a tough re-election campaign if he stays a Democrat, but an impossible one as a Republican.


    36, M, Democrat, MD-03


    [ Parent ]
    Wow
    This is entirely different from the Georgia I live in.

    There are quite a number of areas in Georgia that are staunchly Democratic locally, yet are strongly Republican for federal and in some areas even state offices.

    The GOP has yet to fully break into local partisan offices. North Georgia would be more likely than the rest of the state, but Middle and South Georgia are entirely different.

    Party switching is not uncommon in Georgia.

    We're talking about three state legislators who are popular with their constituents.

    None of the three even had opposition this cycle.


    [ Parent ]
    How bad is the total damage in Georgia now? (nm)
    nm

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    111-68
    111-68 in the State House.

    9 more for a super majority. It's unlikely they'll find 9 more Democrats to switch, but it's not impossible.


    [ Parent ]
    Wow. I imagine the non-white vote...
    ...has to increase by at least 10 points before Democrats are competitive statewide again in Georgia.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    And that will take not a couple of years,
    but, more likely, about 10-15...

    [ Parent ]
    Didn't obama do relatively well in Georgia?
    I remember someone saying Obama didn't aim to win 50% of the vote, aimed at like 48 or something, hoping that bob Barr would steal from mccains vote share, and leave him with a plurality or something like that.

    Obama did his his goal, but Barr underperformed in his home state, giving it to McCain.

    20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)


    [ Parent ]
    It was 52-47, and David Pluoffe said in September 2008 that 47 was projected as enough...
    ...to carry the state with Barr and others combining for 6-7%.

    I always thought expecting Barr to register at all was a pipe dream, even in his native Georgia.  Barr had no money and no name recognition outside his old district, and even there he wasn't going to just reflexively draw votes for President.

    Obama lost the white vote 76-23 per the exit poll, but the black vote was 31%, a point over census, and the white vote 65% total.  And that still wasn't enough to get Obama higher than 47.

    I figure a 10-point swing toward nonwhites in vote share is required to change the math, and even then only barely.  And as smoltchanov commented, that will take a generation, not a couple years.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    23%?!
      I thought Obama would at least register in the 30s with Atlanta now attracting white liberals.  Guess not.

    24, Male, GA-05

    [ Parent ]
    Well...
    he did. In Atlanta he won a majority of white voters, and in its suburbs he won about 35%. The problem is he only won about 10% of the rural white vote in the state.  

    [ Parent ]
    Obama and the white vote in Georgia, elsewhere
    It was probably thanks to those white liberals in Atlanta that Obama came up to 23% of the white vote in Georgia in the first place, sad as it may be.

    Jwaalk's point about his score among rural whites is underscored by the 2008 exit poll data from nearby states - wait, I've got to fish this back up from a  blog post I wrote at the time:

    "In Alabama, 80% of whites already voted for Bush in 2004; but 88% of them voted for McCain now. In Mississippi, the Republican's share of the white vote went from 85% to 88%. In Louisiana, Bush got 75% of the white vote, but McCain strongly upped that number still to 84%."

    38, Male, SP, NL / LMP, HU


    [ Parent ]
    Obama and the white vote in Georgia, elsewhere, cont
    Here, I made crappy Google Map Charts back then already too: here's one mapping out the white vote in the 2008 presidential race. The brightest of reds would have been a 100% white vote for McCain, the brighest of blues a 100% whote vote for Obama, and white is the reflection of a 50/50 split.

    38, Male, SP, NL / LMP, HU

    [ Parent ]
    Simlar to Texas in that respect.


    [ Parent ]
    I am from Louisiana...
    and lived there when David Duke, Hitler sympathizer and former Grand Dragon of the KKK, won the majority of the white vote a la 60% in to be `US Senator.  So are we really suprised about La, Ms, Ga even with their huge AA populations.

    I could go on but I will not...

    41 African-American Female DC
    Taxation but no representation...


    [ Parent ]
    If I were Barrow . . .
    I'd be worried.  His district is likely to be reconfigured and he is more likely that ever to face a strong opponent in 2012 -- perhaps one of these former Dems.  

    [ Parent ]
    Why?
    I figure Republicans are likely to keep his district about as it is and make Georgia's new district a Republican one while trying to protect all their suburban seats.  

    [ Parent ]
    His current district is
    the product of a vicious mid-term gerrymander designed to kick out both him and Marshall.  It worked two cycles later with Marshall, but Barrow looks settled in.  It will be tough for the Republicans to deprive the Dems of one district in the Eastern part of the state by dancing around Augusta, Savannah, Macon, and Athens.  They have already done their worst.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    [ Parent ]
    They may just give up and give him a solid district
    If he was going to ever lose, it was going to be in 2010.  

    [ Parent ]
    There are going to have to be 4 VRA districts that Dems can/should win......
    Georgia is 30% black and only 65% white (and 5% other races), and with 14 seats, one more than now, is not going to get away with just Lewis, Scott, and Bishop.  They will have to let Barrow have his district or make it black majority which just means a black Democrat takes the seat--Barrow is no Steve Cohen, he's too conservative to win a majority-black district.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Huh?
    Doesn't Georgia already HAVE four VRA districts -- Scott, Lewis, Johnson and Bishop.  And if one of these seats is not technically a VRA district it can certainly be converted into one via the addition of a small number of African-Americans.  

    If the GOP is careful enough, they can add a seat in the Atlanta suburbs AND make GA-12 more Republican by exchanging GOP leaning voters from Broun and/or Kingston's district for Dem leaning voters in Barrow's district.  It probably won't make GA-12 a safe GOP seat but it might become a swing district.  


    [ Parent ]
    GA-02 isn't a VRA district, it's majority-white.


    [ Parent ]
    Yes and I mixed up Bishop and Johnson, sorry. (nm)
    nm

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Sanford Bishop
    I have to imagine that he's going to get some of Kingston's heavy R territory shuffled with him. Not a whole lot.

    Bishop is still unbeatable but its only a D+1 district at the moment in the event he leaves over the next 10 years.


    [ Parent ]
    Barney Frank, Waxman, and Ed Markey back Hoyer for Whip.
    http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo...

    I don't know where I read this, so I can't get the link, but they're considering adding a new leadership position so they don't have to bump off Clyburn or Larson should Hoyer be the next Whip.

    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!


    Those are all powerful progressive Dems
    If Clyburn is losing them, he's going to have a tough time beating Hoyer.

    The GOP minority has both a Whip (Cantor) and a Deputy Whip (McCarthy). Maybe Clyburn could become Deputy Whip, or co-Deputy Whip with John Lewis?

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08


    [ Parent ]
    this is starting to get like
    the office last season when michael and jim were co-bosses.

    Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

    [ Parent ]
    laugh for the day
    alvin greene asked the state party how much it costs to run for president.  he'll turn 35 about one month before the election.  may i preemptively ask to see his birth certificate?  (to prove he will be 35:P)

    http://politicalwire.com/archi...

    Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.


    What is WRONG with this guy.


    20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

    [ Parent ]
    He probably has a sugar daddy ;-)

    No one knows where he got the $10K to run for Senate, yet.

    [ Parent ]
    Over-Time 2.0 | 159 comments

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