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WA-Sen: Seattle Times Calls It For Murray

by: Crisitunity

Thu Nov 04, 2010 at 8:49 PM EDT


The lone spot of good news in all this for Dino Rossi? Now he won't have all those Senatorial duties cluttering up his planning activities for his 2012 gubernatorial run.

Sen. Patty Murray pulled further ahead this afternoon , taking 68 percent of the nearly 70,000 votes counted in King County on Thursday.

The King County boost widened Murray's statewide lead to more than two percentage points -- nearly 50,000 votes -- over Republican Dino Rossi statewide even as Rossi-leaning counties began to report new totals. The biggest Rossi counties, Spokane and Clark, both reported results today but his gains there were swamped by King County.

Also worth noting: Rick Larsen in WA-02 seems to be moving into healthier shape against John Koster. He's now up more than 1,400 according to the SoS, suggesting that Dem-friendly precincts are late to report in the 2nd too.
Crisitunity :: WA-Sen: Seattle Times Calls It For Murray
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WA-Sen: Seattle Times Calls It For Murray | 142 comments
53-47
Not bad, all told. Congratulations to Sen. Murray.

Rossi should really quit while he's lost for the third time in as many races statewide.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

And it looks like the University of Washington poll...
...was dead on again!

And Rasmussen sucks.

PPP gets a mulligan.

[ Parent ]
National Pollsters
Have got to figure out how to deal with the vote-by-mail issue in Washington and Oregon. One-size-fits-all assumptions about turnout are not working.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.
[ Parent ]
Never had a doubt
As I often said.  Pollsters in WA and CA constantly under estimate the Democratic number.
[ Parent ]
elway
Takes a hit.  They last polled it in mid October when voting started, but Murray +15 was pretty bad.  Then no poll again?  Razzy was bad at the end, but he had the range of Murray +3/-3 pretty much the entire cycle.  Don't really think I'm going to put much stock in Elway anymore, Raz was already shabby in my book.
[ Parent ]
Congratulations, Senator Murray!!! n/t

3d time is the charm...or not
I mentioned in an earlier thread that I think the 2004 Rossi might have pulled this out.  But his 3d statewide run in 6 years meant there was just too much baggage holding him down.  Its hard to attack someone as a "career politician" when its seems you're always running for office yourself.

I also never got the sense Rossi was really enthused about running, he waited until this Spring to even announce officially he was in the race. I think the high GOP muckety mucks talked him into running, but his heart wasn't really in it.

That's true.
He actually didn't do much campaigning at all until August.  He was still doing a lecture circuit to rich land speculators on how to make money off of foreclosures.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
He was dragged into it kicking and screaming...
And, yet, the whole time he was nothing but a decoy.  I don't think anyone really expected hi to win, but a run by him would drain badly needed resources from other races.
[ Parent ]
Probably not,
because if that was their intention, the Republican party and the shadow groups wouldn't have invested in him. They spent millions and millions attacking Murray, money they could have used in CO, NV, and elsewhere.
[ Parent ]
Never should have nominated Rossi
The man only ever had any appeal during his first run and that was more about lashing out at a longtime Dem hold in Washington than about him. He has slowly ground down since then, and he would be better off aiming his sights lower. Maybe he can run against Sam Reed to keep the I wuz robbed trend going for 4 more years.

I know they did well in the state legislature and got a Congressional seat, but still, this year should have been better for the WAGOP. Murray, even though she works hard and is always underestimated, was almost the picture of a senator who would go in a wave election. Not only did she win, but the GOP did not get any of the surprise House wins they got in 1994. Instead they just got an open seat, and that was not as big as expected, since Herriera did not live up to the hype.

I guess she joins Reichert and Rossi is also never really living up to the hype.  

Rossi made it close, again
No one else would have been competitive.
[ Parent ]
This year, I'm not sure
I think the right candidate who didn't have a ton of baggage and could raise a decent amount of money could have done as good as Rossi, or better. Most of the arguments which could be used against Patty Murray were neutralized when Rossi was chosen.
[ Parent ]
i agree with tommy.
Though everyone calls Rossi a 3 time loser, I look at it as a tie in '04.  I can see how the Republicans feel about him;  if Gore ran again in '04 and lost by about 7, I'd feel bad for him too, and probably want him to run for something again.  I mean, a lot of us wanted him to run again in '04 or '08 anyway!  Just my opinion.  
[ Parent ]
Reichert has won again in rather difficult district,
Herrera won as well. What more is required of them and what more would they wish himself?
[ Parent ]
Herrera only narrowly
won despite a big lead in the polls, and a total performance of something like 59% by the top two Republicans in the first round. In a more decent cycle she'd have a good chance of losing.

Reichert won yeah, but the cycle was good for him, Rossi was pulling moderates and conservatives out to the polls in the King County outer suburbs and in Pierce, (his base), and Democrats yet again nominated a milquetoast pretty face techie type that can't win district-wide.  

[ Parent ]
They're supposed to be stars
Herrera got a ton of hype and then that seemed to fizzle, and a race that never should have been that competitive turned out to be competitive.

Reichert was hyped endlessly in 2004. The sheriff, handsome and smart and a moderate conservative. I think there was even talk about how he would eventually be a statewide candidate. Instead he's sort of stumbled through the last 6 years, with this last one resulting in arguments about a head injury and a gaffe where he said he only votes for some environment bills to con endorsements out of groups. In any kind of year which wasn't GOP-friendly, I think he could have lost.

[ Parent ]
Well, Reichert won even
in very good Democratic years 2006 and 2008. I don't say he can't be beaten at all, but that, probably, requires BOTH an excellent Democratic candidate AND very good year like 2006 or 2008.
[ Parent ]
I think it's the district
While his district wasn't drawn for him the way Jim Gerlach's was, I think the nature of the district is used to faux-moderate Republicans. I'm sure running someone better than Darcy Burner in 2006 and 2008 would have helped, but I really am baffled by how Reichert seems to bumble more and more each term. I think if this had been a regular year he probably would have been held to under 55%.
[ Parent ]
Um, he IS held to "under 55%" NOW......
It's 54-46 right now.  I'm guessing it stays that way, as that's been the margin the whole time.

This has been a frustrating district for us much like IL-10, where we just can't seem to get over the hump even though we should.  These districts will be ours eventually.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Yes, They will
I still weep over IL-10, nooooooo, THIRD time and he blows it.
But considering the environment and Reichert's stature, I think Delbene actually did quite well.

21,Democrat, NY-02, male
[ Parent ]
Redistricting . . .
may give Washington another House seat.  Assuming the new seat leans Democratic, Reichert's district may become more Republican and allow him to survive future cycles.  
[ Parent ]
I would guess that's exactly what they'll do......
It would be a pretty good deal for the GOP to bolster Reichert in exchange for an extra Democrat.

For reasons like this one, I think reapportionment ultimately will come out a wash.  Some say Dems are hurt because red states are getting more seats, but that's just not true.  Some erased seats are Republicans, some gained seats are majority-minority VRA, and others are subject to required political compromise.  Democrats will come out just fine.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
but we won't gain ground
like we would have if Strickland had won, or we had held the Michigan House.
[ Parent ]
Fair enough, but we knew a bad wave was coming, and to come out of it with no lost ground...
...is a "win."

Just like it's a "win" that we lost "only" 6 Senate seats, and "only" a net 5 Governorships.

We've beaten all expectations in some of these areas, and I think redistricting we will beat the pundits' early expectations, too.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
And the Dems should now be able to crush the GOP . . .
in Illinois.  

I expect a map that ensures IL-08, IL-10 and IL-14 go Dem.  Plus, the Dems should knock out one or perhaps two GOP members downstate.  

Brady's unexpected defeat will have severe consequences for Republican House members.  

[ Parent ]
WA 3 is a swing district Herrera carried it 52-47
She ran well enough in Clark County (55-45)to offset Heck's 57-42 margin in Thurston County.Thurston still has votes coming in which will shrink Herrera's margin overall. This is a district that Obama barely carried and Bush won twice. It is one of few areas in the state where an "enthusiasm gap" manifest itself and the Native American vote that was significant in Obama's victory almost disappeared.

WA 8 is also swing. Reichert slightly improved his position among King Co voters and held his Pierce County support. He pulled 9 point more than Rossi in Pierce County. He might not be the brightest color in the box but he does not have Rossi's negative baggage. This would be a toss up rather than a lean R if the seat were open.

[ Parent ]
rossi v cantwell 2012?
or rossi v unnamed democrat 2012?

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
Rossi
vs. Rossi. God that would be a barnburner!

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
He should move to Peyton Place
He'd be at the center of the action.
[ Parent ]
rossi for prez
because there's nothing left to run for in washington.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
You
mean Washington state.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
thought the state was implied
or hell, he could move to oregon and challenge merkely in 2014.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
Only situation in which he would win
But he would still lose...

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Question:
Who can run for WA governor in 2012?
Other than Rossi again....but that's a given.

21,Democrat, NY-02, male
[ Parent ]
It's looking like Jay Inslee for the Dems and Rob McKenna for the Reps.

[ Parent ]
Well, if nothing changes
McKenna would be initially favored. Statewide-elected and reelected, moderate image (pro-choice and so on), and his only really conservative action i can remeber (joining other AG in suit against HCR) is not very unpopular, because HCR itself is not very popular...
[ Parent ]
I
believe the state's attorney general is GOP and he's planning to run.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Rossi pushed into Senate race to clear McKenna's path to gov
There were a good many King County Republicans who pushed Rossi into the Senate race hoping he had a shot. If he won he would be in Washington DC. If he lost he would be a three-time loser. Either way it cleared a path for AG McKenna to run for governor.

Gregoire could seek a third term but I don't think she will. Like others have said, the likely match up is Inslee vs McKenna. Brian Sonntag is another D who might consider a run. Pat McCarthy (Pierce County Executive)is another possible but not probably Democratic contender.

Republicans don't really have a very deep bench now. Joseph Zarelli might consider a run but he isn't widely known and none too popular with Republicans on the west side. Don Benton is a remote possibility but I can't see him challenging McKenna in a primary.

[ Parent ]
Do you think Ron Sims still has a shot at statewide office?
And on the Republican side, is Sam Reed limited to SoS-for-life?
[ Parent ]
Someone said in a previous thread
that Sam Reed will get Scozzafavaed should he run for any higher office because the Republican base still hates him for his evenhanded approach to the 2004 recount.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Sam Reed's time has probably passed. He will be 70 next year.
Republicans probably would have been smart to run him against Gregoire last time instead of giving Rossi a second shot. Some of the base wouldn't have been happy but Reed would have had real cross-over appeal.

[ Parent ]
Murray reminds me of Harry Reid
Neither are terribly charismatic or telegenic.  Both are pretty good at the inside game in the Senate.  And both are remarkably tough during campaign season.
I've had respect for her
for managing to get through the whole fiasco the Republicans made out of her comments about bin Laden building roads and schools. Politically that could have been deadly, but she turned it around on Nethercutt.
[ Parent ]
Interestingly
I expected the vulnerable elected-for-the-first-time-in-1992 trio (Boxer, Murray, Feingold) to hold on by similarly small margins. Now it looks like that only happened to Murray. We sadly lost Feingold and Boxer won by more than many thought. Turns out Feingold didn't have much of a base in Wisconsin, Murray had a slightly bigger and stable base, and Boxer's base is getting bigger every election.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
WA Senate race over - Murray has won
At 6:00 pm Rossi called Patty Murray to offer his congratulations. Bryan Johnson made the announcement moments ago on KOMO. Murray will hold a press conference later this evening.
update
Larsen up 1606 now.

41, Ind, CA-05
The wave just didn't happen on the West Coast
All over the Midwest, all over the South, just brutal what happened in states like Michigan, Texas, and Wisconsin - states that looked relatively fertile for Democrats heading into the cycle - but in a few of those East Coast states (Democratic sweeps in Delaware and Vermont, anyone? Maryland reelecting Gov. O'Malley over former Gov. Ehrlich by a margin in the mid-teens?) and in Washington, Oregon, California, and Hawaii, just no wave. Nothing. Democrats made gains in California and Hawaii, including flipping the governor's mansion in both states. They flipped governorships in Vermont and Connecticut and replaced a Republican governor with a left-leaning independent in Rhode Island. They lost one open seat in Washington, in a district that has been trending red for more than a decade. They won an open seat in Delaware and defeated Rep. Djou in Hawaii, voting for Rep.-elect Hanabusa to serve in Congress.

Now Rep. Larsen looks good, Rep. McNerney has to be favored to pull it out, even Rep. Costa looks good when you consider the remaining votes are in Democratic areas.

So, what's the difference between the true blue states and the rest of the country? It's not just a difference in PVI; OR-05 is just as Democratic as, say, FL-22 or OH-01, and it's less Democratic than MN-08 or IL-10.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
oregon and washington legislatures
The margins went down dramatically. Both houses in oregon are tied and the dems of an advantage of 1-5 in the houses in washington now.
[ Parent ]
Oregon Senate
If current leads hold, Dems would keep the chamber 16-14. That would be a loss of "only" two seats.

Twitter.com/Taniel
[ Parent ]
More a reaction to unpopular incumbent governors...
Govs. Gregoire and Kulongoski are not well liked. I know staunch Democrats in Oregon who don't really care for Kulongoski, and who knows if Gregoire would even win election against somebody not named Dino Rossi.

At the federal and statewide level, Democrats and independents may be a bit grumpy, but they're not blindly wrathful the way Midwestern and Southern electorates were, hurling the architect of the only federal budget surplus in ages from the parapets (Rep. Spratt), sending an ethically challenged john back to Washington (Sen. Vitter), and electing a birther (Rep.-elect Walberg) because the president hasn't magicked the economy back to full health. They showed up and they voted for the best candidates.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Not a dramatic change in WA
Dems will likely lose 5-6 seats in Washington state legislature and 4 seats in the state senate.

Ds retained the majority in OR, too, the houses are not tied although on election night it looked like they might be.

[ Parent ]
So what happened in OR?
The media still seems to be saying the leg is tied. Which seats have shifted to Democrats to break the tie?
[ Parent ]
OR Sen Dist 3 hasn't been officially called but both parties
say that Bates small lead will hold up giving Democrats 16 seats a bare majority. I believe it is House Dist. 52 initially called for the Republican challenger Mark Johnson that late votes may push incubant Susie VanOrman over the top.
[ Parent ]
That's great to hear
If they can hold on then they should be able to pad their majorities in 2012, hopefully.

At first I thought you meant Suze Orman.

[ Parent ]
What do you mean by "an advantage of 1-5 in the houses"
The advantage will be at least 3 in the Senate and easily in the double digits for the House.

Radical or something, WA-07
[ Parent ]
I don't think its too hard to explain
Its sort of the big sort phenomenon.

At least in Seattle, where I live, there are TONS youngish of transplants from Midwest and states like Idaho and Utah. I'm from PA (sort of, I actually live in Britain until I was 9, although my mom is American - from California), but moved out here. I know lots of people from Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, etc.

California is a bit similar, but additionally has had tons of immigration from Latin American and Asia, making it even more liberal.

Nevada and Colorado I think are moving down a similar path, but not yet as far.

The Midwest and Great Plains just get older, while younger, more conservative people move to states like Texas and Florida.

WA-07, 34 years old

[ Parent ]
Similar attacted to similar?
If so - soon there will be "2 Americas":

liberal "coastal" - from Maine to Mariland and all Pacific coast (may be - somewhat larger, but so far - so) with "progressive dominance", and very big "inland" (all the rest) where "no progressive needs to apply!" will be the best description....

[ Parent ]
I don't know
in middle America there are going to be strongholds for Democrats. Indiana, like New Hampshire, looks rough for Republicans in the future. Mainly because it's voters over 65 that form the core of the state's conservatives. Young voters in those two states are super liberal, by overwhelming, larger-than-the-national-average averages. Obama lost the 65+ vote in Indiana like 64-36, but won the 18-25 vote with like 66%.

Chicago, Detroit, Minneapolis, Indianapolis, St. Louis, Kansas City, Columbus, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Milwaukee, Madison, and Des Moines, these are serve as Democratic strongholds in middle America that aren't going anywhere. As long as they can stay competitive in the suburbs I can't see Democrats falling that far behind. Ohio was bad simply because it's an ingenious gerrymander and many Democrats held seats designed to protect and elect Republicans. Particularly the case in Kilroy and Dreihaus's districts. Rep. Wilson must have gotten caught off guard, but his Appalachian district was trending Democratic...maybe Strickland can win it back in 2012, it was his old stomping ground.  

[ Parent ]
Of course - i exaggerated somewhat....
But those Democratic strongholds you mentioned in "middle America" have one weak spot - almost all of then don't grow, and some - lose population rather rapidly...
[ Parent ]
It's more specific than coastal vs. inland
Have you read The Urban Archipelago?
[ Parent ]
Thanks. Quite interesting.

[ Parent ]
Margin for error is one thing
The whole "wave" is not that mysterious in the end.  Except in a few places, it wasn't massive disinterest.  What happened was basically...

2008: Dems vote for Dems, Reps vote for Reps, 2/3 of Indies vote for Dems.

2010: Dems vote for Dems, Reps vote for Reps, 2/3 of Indies vote for Reps.

The Pacific west is more Dem, so Brown wins by 12 or so points instead of 24 (against an uber-well-funded opponent).  There definitely was some movement toward Team Red in the bluer areas, but in California at least the trend continued against Republicans in many of the redder areas of the state.

At the same time, Kitz and Murray and Bennet won because the west is bluing overall, even as a lot of people voted for Team Red because the Democrats performed very ineptly while in power.

[ Parent ]
You
DO NOT enter a Senate race as late as Rossi did and win. I have said it from the moment he got in. It just does not happen. Rossi got soooooo much hype from Republicans but he was really nothing special. I mean he did as good as any other Republican could have done but not great at all. Also Crisitunity, he will also have more time to give seminars. I just don't think Rossi's heart was ever in this race.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
Late entrance
However, didn't Ron Johnson in Wisconsin enter around the same time in the cycle as Rossi? It's difficult, but not impossible, to win a Senate race as a late entrant.

31, Male, Democrat, RI-01
[ Parent ]
It's easier when you have someone like Russ Feingold....
...who runs a "pie in the sky "campaign.
[ Parent ]
Feingold for governor
I don't know if his career is over.  But is he better suited for a guv run someday rahter than another senate run (be it after Kohls retirement or against Johnson in 2016)?
[ Parent ]
No
Russ Feingold should go off and teach some political science class in Madison or something. I'd much rather have someone like Tammy Baldwin run if Kohl retires. Well at least we don't have to worry about Paul Ryan. No way in hell he'll give up his chairmanship on the Budget Committee. He'll be busy trying to shove his draconian budget down Obama and the senate's throats.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Tammy Baldwin will never
ever happen. I'm sorry, but it would be suicide for Democrats to nominate a highly liberal, openly gay candidate for statewide office in Wisconsin. Not only is she more liberal than Feingold, she is even more directly attached to Madison, which has a bad reputation for crusader type liberals to the rest of the state, similar to Portland in Maine. Plus she's had close races in the past even in a heavily Democratic seat.

Ron Kind will be the Democratic candidate, versus Paul Ryan. The match up has been in the works for years. Kind represents the Democratic leaning rural areas of Western WI which form a crucial part of the state's Democratic coalition, and he has a moderate, telegenic persona, is a good campaigner, and has a convenient base. With Obama at the top of the ticket, and Ryan's conservativeness, he should win too, particularly since dissatisfied moderates had plenty of opportunity to do their venting this time around.  

[ Parent ]
Ron Kind
If Ron Kind runs for Senate, does that mean the GOP would be favored to pick up his open seat?

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
If Kapanke runs, maybe
otherwise, not so sure. It's a pretty Democratic district, I think. in a neutral or D year, the D probably starts off ahead.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Kind's predecessor was an outed moderate gay Republican......
I can't remember the guy's name, but he was outed as gay relatively late in his House career, but then was reelected two more times before retiring.  He always was a moderate, in the mold of Jim Leach and others of the Rockefeller Republican variety.

Yes the district always has been center-left, but more center than left.  A Republican can win it, even a conservative Republican can win it in a wave year or against a particularly weak Democrat, but Democrats have a natural edge here.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Steve Gunderson, i suppose..

[ Parent ]
Republicans control redistricting now, right?
wonder what they'll do with Eau Claire. if that's gone the district becomes a lot easier for a Republican, but I'm not sure Duffy can afford it.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Duffy's district is Democratic, too, so no he can't afford it......
Wisconsin is purple not red, there's a limit to HOW big a Republican delegation they can manufacture.  They can't realistically limit us to Milwaukee and Madison-based seats.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Duffy cant afford eau clarie
They would be better off putting st croix in WI-07 and just making kind safer.

20, male, independent, WI-07.
[ Parent ]
You seriosly think that Baldwin will win over Ryan???
Much more likely that he will shred her to pieces.... After this election i am reasonably confident that any other competent Republican would do the same if economy doesn't inprove radically
[ Parent ]
Feingold should run if Kohl retires
In a presidential year, he'll win.  
[ Parent ]
Ron Kind, Ron Kind, Ron Kind
Democrats need to pick someone to lock down a Senate seat, not flit about and need to squeak out a victory every six years. Feingold is not the man for the job. I love the guy, but seriously, Russ needs to move on.
[ Parent ]
Sure, but Sen. Murray actually ran for reelection
Sen. Feingold's campaign was pathetic. I'm glad he never ran for president.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Johnson
did enter pretty late you right, but Rossi still entered later. That's not to say that Johnson would not have won had he entered in May instead of when he did but on a whole it is very rare to enter as late as both of them did and win. The success rate is very low.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Is Rossi really going to run in 2012
Or is that just Snark?

After losing 3 statewide races in 6 years, I honestly would not be surprised if he tries to make it 4 in 8.

What a loser.  Just end your career already, sheesh.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

Three strikes and you're out
And that goes for Dan Seals as well.
[ Parent ]
And John Raese
Though theoretically he could try running in his own state.
[ Parent ]
Barry Goldwater was right about sawing off the West and East Coast
But seriously, the West Coast has remained remarkably resilient for Democrats. Assuming the Republicans defeat Costa and lose the other uncalled races, we gained a net of one seat from the whole Pacific area. And Vidak will likely be gone in 2012. We couldn't even win OR-Gov.
Don't count out Costa yet
http://www.fresnobee.com/2010/...

Though more than 63,000 votes have been tallied, tens of thousands of absentee and provisional ballots remain to be counted. And most come from parts of the district where Costa did well.

A final tally may take weeks. But even some GOP observers said a Vidak victory is unlikely.




"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
Gotta put your best foot forward...
Republicans absolutely shanked huge pickup opportunities in DE-Sen, NV-Sen, IL-Gov, OR-Gov, CA-Sen, CO-Sen, and very nearly FL-Gov and ME-Gov, by nominating the candidate that generated the most grassroots conservative excitement. Turns out they wound up being lousy, baggage-toting candidates, well to the right of the electorate, or (in most of these cases) both.

Allen Alley probably would have won. Oregon Republicans passed him up because he has a bipartisan reputation, having worked in the Kulongoski administration and earned an appointment from then-Gov. Kitzhaber to an advisory position (which he only held for a month or two).

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
OR-Gov comments
while Alley probably would have won as a known centerist, Dudley ran hard to the center, especially in Oct, citing where he agreed with President Obama, pushing additional funding for education, etc.

We were fortunate that Dudley had serious flaws, e.g. residency/tax issues, etc.

AFAIK, none of the other R candidates listed ran to the center.

[ Parent ]
Dudley did run to the center...
You have to in order to compete statewide as a Republican in Oregon. But he didn't take a strong pro-environment stance, and his budget proposals were fuzzy at best. Alley would have done much better in those areas, which are really crucial issues in Oregon.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Problem is
Dudley had a ton of money, Alley had almost none. People forget that money and vaguely running to the center were almost enough to get Dudley the governorship after 24 years of Democratic control.  
[ Parent ]
I disagreed with him on many issues
but he was very clever and original thinker)))
[ Parent ]
He only said the east coast
Now, if we could only saw off the southeast . . . .
[ Parent ]
Larsen's surge in Wa-2
It's good to see but still hard to predict what will happen. He trails by more than 2,000 votes in Snohomish County, where most of the remaining votes will come from. Also, there are no "precincts reporting" as such -- the district is all vote by mail, so it's just up to who mailed their votes late, and which votes are counted late.
In the latest batch from Snohomish tonight,
Koster only gained about 150 votes.  Island, Skagit and Snohomish combined have been coming in about 50-50 and those are Koster's best counties.  Whatcom has been coming in for Larson by an increasing margin.  So, unless the pattern changes, Koster is not going to gain any ground.
[ Parent ]
That is true but Koster did far betteron the early Snohomish votes
his percentage has dropped significantly with each late release and Larsen has improved his win percentage in both King and Whatcom with each day of counting. There are also 1000 San Juan County votes that will be part of tomorrow's tally and there Larsen is carrying 65% of the vote.
[ Parent ]
While we are talking about WA and the Pacific northwest
I think some of you SSPers may appreciate this

WASHINGTON-In the wake of what is being called the deadliest midterm election in the nation's history, Washington's sole surviving politician, Rep. Peter DeFazio of Oregon's 4th Congressional District, emerged from the rubble of the Capitol building Wednesday to announce his intention to rebuild the fallen U.S. government.

The events of Tuesday night-which included live televised images of Sen. Harry Reid taking a gavel to the head of Sen. Mitch McConnell while Rep. Barney Frank repeatedly smashed the face of Undersecretary for Food Safety Elisabeth Hagen against a marble column-left most Americans believing their entire government had perished in the post-election bloodbath. But the miraculous survival of DeFazio points to a possible way forward.

http://www.theonion.com/articl...

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

Well, that may be interesting
DeFazio is usually consiered a liberal, but he is extremely difficult to characterize. Very nonstandard liberal at least...
[ Parent ]
2011 Races
I'm wondering what you all think of our chances in the 2011 races.  There are three governorships up.

KY-Gov:  Beshear seems to have good/fair approval ratings.  Do you all think he can survive?  Who could the Republicans send against him?

MS-Gov:  Barbour is term limited, and post-2010, there are two conservadems out of the job.  Do you think Childers or Taylor would be the best candidate?  And what are their chances in the general?

LA-Gov:  Jindal seems pretty popular, but I don't know if he's invincible.  Could Melancon be roped into this?  Or Chris John?  Or Don Cazayoux?

I believe David Williams is running in Kentucky
He's the current president of the Kentucky Senate, and I think he'll go up with Richie Farmer as his running mate.

I think the CW since forever has been that Mike Moore's going to take the plunge at some point for statewide office. He's getting old so I imagine now more than ever would be his best shot at the governorship. No idea who the GOP might put up, though.

19, male, Dem, CT-04 (home) PA-02 (college and registered)

[ Parent ]
Behsear can hang on.
Childers is probably the best choice from where I stand on who should run for MS-Gov to succeed big oil's pet Governor.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
I'm leaning towards Childers
or perhaps Gene Taylor, who would be an even stronger candidate.  
[ Parent ]
Gene Taylor has been in it for too long.
Childers can unite the base (something Taylor can't do) and win moderates by a wide margin, especially if the GOP candidate is uber-conservative or corrupt.  Childers has a great personality and a lot of energy from what I have heard.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
I
seem to remember reading that the AG might be thinking of a run. Could be good to have a non Washington pol that also doesn't have a recent loss under their belt.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
The current one or former one?
I know ex-AG Mike Moore is always talked about as the Dems' best shot whenever a statewide seat in Mississippi is open, and he might be the only Democrat popular enough to make a race of it. I haven't heard anything about the current AG, Jim Hood, except that I'm amazed that office is still held by a Democrat.

24, CA-14, previously DC-AL
[ Parent ]
Mike Moore passes on everything
Despite the fact he could raise money like Haley Barbour and has a solid base of support in the Gulf Coast business and legal community plus a populist appeal to rural Mississippi.
[ Parent ]
Hopefully somebody strong runs
Really need some offense next year with Jindal likely to coast and Beshear in a tough battle.
[ Parent ]
2011 Races
I'm wondering what you all think of our chances in the 2011 races.  There are three governorships up.

KY-Gov:  Beshear seems to have good/fair approval ratings.  Do you all think he can survive?  Who could the Republicans send against him?

MS-Gov:  Barbour is term limited, and post-2010, there are two conservadems out of the job.  Do you think Childers or Taylor would be the best candidate?  And what are their chances in the general?

LA-Gov:  Jindal seems pretty popular, but I don't know if he's invincible.  Could Melancon be roped into this?  Or Chris John?  Or Don Cazayoux?

Don't think anyone will run against Jindal
The LA Dem base seems demoralized. I think if anyone does it will just be someone with a lot of money to burn.

I think Jindal would win but it would be closer than expected.

[ Parent ]
If Mitch Landrieu does a good job with New Orleans
He can run for Gov in 2015 or for his sister's seat in 2014 and win.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
I think that's his intention
And it's a safe one. Jindal is fairly strong at the moment. But Mitch has a real chance to make a name for himself, particularly if he can slash the crime rate and find a way to get clean up the slums down there. I think that especially would appeal to suburban NOLA conservatives in Jefferson Parish and, to a lesser degree, St. Tammany.

Kip Grover is a possibility, but I don't know about Grover.  

[ Parent ]
The situation in Louisiana
Jindal's one Achilles heal so far has been the state's horrendous education cuts.  That will hurt him, and take his approval rating down a bit: still, on its own I don't think that one issue is enough for Jindal to lose on.  If the state needs to cut a lot of essential services I can see that really hurting him, but if things remain just as bad as they are I expect him to easily win.

If Dems do smell blood we don't have much of a bench.  Mitch Landrieu just took office in NOLA (and he's doing an excellent job under some awful circumstances) so he won't be going anywhere anytime soon.  Dem AG Buddy Caldwell is very close to Jindal so he's not running (and other than Mary Landrieu he's our only statewide Dem).  Carolyn Fayard is a potential candidate but after badly losing for Lt.Gov on Tuesday I doubt she'll do it.  And really, that's it.  Obviously someone can come out of the state legislature and shock everyone like Scott Brown, or come out of nowhere like Ron Johnson, but it's pretty hard to predict something like that.

As far as I see it we have two good choices if Jindal looks weak.  Kip Holden is the Mayor of East Baton Rouge Parish (which includes Baton Rouge): he's an African American who easily won reelection in a 56% white parish.  Our other choice is Cedric Grover, the Mayor of Shreveport: he's an African American who just won 64% in a racially split city.  Both have demonstrated cross-racial appeal and I can see either being a future statewide candidate someday: the trick would be winning big margins in urban areas and holding their own in rural ones, similar to what Mary Landrieu did in 2008.  Maybe one could run if things look good, but they have better things to do than be a sacrificial lamb.  

Bottom line: Jindal is coming down to earth but he should be reelected fairly easily unless things continue to go downhill and Dems find a very compelling candidate.      

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
By the way, I have no idea if either Holden or Grover ever wants to advance higher
This speculation is coming just from me, not from anything they've ever said.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
Agree with you,
but still think it will be very difficult for Holden or Grover to win statewide. It's one thing to run in relatively "advanced" Baton Rouge (and some suburbs) or Shreveport, it's quite another when you must get votes from rural Louisiana. Even very conservative Jindal lost it in hist first campaign: you surely remember very "peculiar" results in 2003, when Blanco, for example, beat Jindal  in LaSalle parish, where Democratic win is so rare....
[ Parent ]
It'll be hard but I don't think impossible
Obviously there will be many, many people who won't vote for an African American, but I do think that they are the minority in Louisiana.  Besides, if one ran against an unpopular Jindal those voters would need to choose between two colored men: most would probably stick with Jindal, but if Holden/ Grover can peal off enough angry with the incumbent or get them to stay home then that will help a lot.

Essentially, a Holden/ Grover victory would look something like this: dominate in LA-2, rack up big margins in LA-6 and LA-4, do fairly well in LA-7 and LA-3, and avoid utter destruction in LA-1 and LA-5.  As we saw on Tuesday this is a very hard strategy to implement, but if running against an unpopular Republican in a better year it's doable if still challenging.

Of course I expect Jindal will still be fairly strong come 2011 so the point will just be hypothetical: if/when either runs for statewide office it may be far enough into the future that a lot of old racists will be dead.  Yes, Louisiana has its racial tensions but I do believe the state has made a lot of progress: Jindal's election may very well have helped that.  It's their party label that is a problem, and one Louisiana Dems are going to spend a long time trying to fix.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
Agree 100%
I only wanted to say that it's difficult enough even when you had one big problem (as it was the case with Jindal and race in 2003), but Holden and Grover would have 2: both race and extremely unpopular for now in Louisiana Democratic party label. Under any "normal" situation that's, probably, too much. In "special circumstances" - well, anything may happen there.

BTW, little question about Caldwell - he seems to be both very popular, and, at the same time - representing an "old guard": very conservative (even by my, not especially liberal, standards) rural southern Democrat. Am i correct or no?

[ Parent ]
You're exactly right about it taking special circumstances
In 10 years who knows, but for now it'll be hard for almost any Dem to win Louisiana, especially with a Democrat as President.  If Jindal collapses all bets are off of course, but that probably won't happen even though he deserves to lose.

Caldwell matches your description very well.  He used to be a DA in Louisiana's northeast corner (although his area isn't too conservative: Melancon did relatively well there on Tuesday).  He's been very conservative, prominently going after ACORN and being the only Democratic AG to join the suit against health care reform, which he did on Bobby Jindal's advice.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
And I just randomly found out Caldwell was Jewish
http://www.shreveporttimes.com...

It's kind of interesting that Louisiana has a Jewish LG and AG now (and me!).    

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
I was shocked
by Vitter's margin. I really was. I expected him to narrowly win the 6th, and dominate the 5th and 1st, and carry the 7th and 4th by 5-12 point margins, but I never expected him to cream Melancon in the 3rd. I mean really, Melancon, running against a man who slept with hookers, ran as far to the right as possible, and was marred by other scandals, beat him in the district he won election to 3 times and where I thought people really liked and respected him due to his work post-Katrina. He lost Lafourche and Terrebonne Parishes by double digits, lost his home parish of St. Mary, lost Plaquimines, simply got beat up and down in his district.  
[ Parent ]
wow
Would he have lost re-election?  
[ Parent ]
Well in Ky
there's going to be a big tea party establishment gap. David Williams is running, but so is a rich, tea party type businessman and Beshear has polled decently against Williams, and has a huge lead against the teabagger. Rand Paul's enormous victory aside, (I think that was a result of the climate which was very strong in a state like KY and a campaign by Conway which floundered at the end), Democrats are still competitive in Kentucky.  
[ Parent ]
What are the odds that Beshear goes for a 1996 rematch
And goes against McConnell in 2014 with Conway going against paul again in 2016.

Maybe flip those, with Conway/McConnell and Beshear/Paul?

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
I don't think very high
Beshear's 66 right now.  70 isn't unthinkable for the start of a Senate career (Mike Castle tried) but it's still on the high end.  Besides, chances are a fight with McConnell will be very tough, and a fairly old Beshear may want to avoid that.  Probably he'll decide it's better to just retire with a good legacy than risk going out on a low note.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
McConnell is unpopular, though.
Beshear has kept his numbers afloat during the recession.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Still, it is a conservative state and McConnell's no pushover
McConnell isn't actually that unpopular right now: PPP put his rating at 42%-44%.  

Assuming McConnell is really unpopular in 2014 and Beshear is reasonably popular it could be a big clash of the titans.  Still, McConnell will undoubtedly have a LOT of cash behind him and a lot of fighting spirit.  As a Governor Beshear will be able to raise money too, but McConnell is likely to follow the Harry Reid example and stockpile early.  Plus Kentucky is a conservative state: hard to see them choosing a Democrat for Senate especially if Obama's still President.

Obviously, if Beshear is extremely popular in 2014, McConnell is in trouble, and 2014 is looking good for Dems then I can see Beshear running.  But between Beshear's age, McConnell's power, and Kentucky's conservativeness, I don't see it happening.  Of course, if in 2006 you told me in 2010 Ron Paul's son would be the Senator-elect I would have died laughing, so who knows?        

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
Kentucky Dems didn't do that bad this year did they?
I know they lost some seats in both chambers but weren't the losses expected to be worse? Yarmuth held on -- was that because of the candidate against him or is that district just not a wave district now? And Chandler might hang on too.
[ Parent ]
Yarmuth was always favored to win.
Chandler did worse that expected, but hung on.  Hopefully, the Dem Gov and Dem State House can get him some incumbent protection in redisctricting (due to happen next year before the State elections).

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
I thought some late polls
claimed Lally might win.
[ Parent ]
Nah, you're thinking of the Chandler v. Barr race.
Barr would have won had there not been a strong Dem running for Senate this year.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
OK
I saw some Time article about Yarmuth's win which said polls showed Lally doing well.
[ Parent ]
Hmm, that was probably some Lally internal.
I think I remember that.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
SUSA had Yarmuth up by 3 or 4 points in their last poll
But their polls might as well have been conducted by throwing darts at pictures of the candidates. They did get MN-08 spot-on, but that's about it.
[ Parent ]
SUSA
also had Republican Mayor candidate Hal Heiner leading by nine points and the dem nominee Fischer won by two.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
"might hang on"?
Chandler won by 600+ votes.  It's almost impossible to wipe that away in recanvassing or whatever the heck he wants to do.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Status quo
Kentucky, Beshear is lucky Farmer didn't choose the top of the ticket. I expect he'll beat Williams, though not by a huge margin.

Mississippi is in the midst of the Deep South realignment; the legislature is likely to be a slaughterhouse for white Democrats, and I don't see a Dem winning this one.

Louisiana, Jindal is safe.

West Virginia may be a fourth race, depending on whether they figure out what the state constitution actually says about a special election. I would expect Shelley Capito to run there and win.

[ Parent ]
The
WV SoS polls competitively against SMC, I think she could win.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
It
will be a little tough but I think but I think Beshear will pull it out. The Republican candidate currently running is rather weak and reeks of being around Frankfort too long. Should be a close one but we should be able to win it.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Basil Marceaux predicted Angle would win the Senate race.
But before he gets to that, hilarity and confusion ensues.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
CNN calls AZ 7 for Grijalva

Walsh lead over Bean down to 365

How much left to go?


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Unclear

[ Parent ]
NY-25 won't be decided for at least a week

Buerkle currently leads by 659 votes, but Tuesday's preliminary results do not include 11,645 absentee ballots, nearly 8,731 of which have been mailed back to their respective counties so far.

. . . .

Cayuga County mailed 148 absentee ballots, Wayne County mailed 1,683 ballots, Onondaga County mailed 8,154 ballots and Monroe County mailed 1,660 ballots.

Onondaga County, which contains a majority of the 25th District's voters, is the only county Maffei won, according to Tuesday's preliminary results.

http://auburnpub.com/news/loca...

WA-Sen: Seattle Times Calls It For Murray | 142 comments

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