ME-01 - NRCC spend about $14K yesterday

probably on a media production.  Expect an ad buy against Pingree later this week.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

---

by: spiderdem @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 11:58:59 AM UTC

Seems like sort of a bluff to me...

I doubt ME-01 is actually within reach. I think sometimes NRCC buys are evidence that the playing field is actually widening, and other times they try to create the perception that the playing field is widening, which can be just as valuable. I assume ME-01 is a pretty cheap district to advertise in, so it's easy for the NRCC to advance the narrative that the playing field is widening by spending there, even if Pingree isn't actually in any danger.

Does anyone know if the NRCC has done any polling in ME-01?

20, GOP, NH-02

---

by: DartCon @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 12:04:43 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I.E. reports

do not indicate any payments for polling.  Just media production.

I'll wait and see the size of the buy before I characterize it as a bluff, but I'm guessing it's a flyer at best.  The DCCC has not seen the need to protect it.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

---

by: spiderdem @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 12:06:51 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

PA-SEN - Two polls show solid Toomey lead.

http://politicalwire.com/archi...

F&M: 43-36 Toomey
Muhlenberg: 46-41 Toomey

NRSC seems to be scaling back on its ad buys, committing $400K yesterday.  There could be more to come, but they spent $1.4MM last week in chunks of $630K and $775K.  So I'm expecting a significant dropoff this week.  Team red seems to be feeling much better about this one.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

---

by: spiderdem @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 12:05:29 PM UTC

Why are these polls so crazy?

Someone should do a study on the wild polling this midterm season.  That F&M poll is really weird.  I wonder what the internals look like.

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...

---

by: sebby123 @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 12:08:35 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

As a rule of thumb...

F&M polls should be dismissed because of their crazy, unrealistically large column of undecideds. They don't disappoint in today's PA-Sen race. 19% undecided.

---

by: Icarus23k @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 12:26:41 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

PA Sen

So?  Yesterday Reuters/Ipsos had the race tied.  Nearly 20% undecided this late out?  And the tracking poll actually showed improvement for Sestak.  With all the IEs against Sestak, the NRSC can afford to cut back.

---

by: Paleo @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 12:47:20 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well, that's true

If the PA turnout pool is GOP 48%, Dems 45% as exists in Muhlenberg's sample, Toomey will win.  Given that 2008 turnout was 44% D, 37% R, I find that unlikely.

---

by: Adam B. @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 14:31:16 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

that's the key

and it's why it drives me crazy when pollsters don't report the partisan breakdown of the sample. Mariannette Miller-Meeks won't release those details from her campaign's internal polling that showed her ahead of Loebsack 45-44. I want to know if the estimated proportions of Ds, Rs and Is in the sample look anything like what we're likely to see in IA-02.

---

by: desmoinesdem @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 16:09:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Muhlenberg is objectively a complete joke

Their sample today was +3 McCain.  The state went +10 Obama.  That means they say Obama voters will turn out at a rate of about 75% of Mccain voters.  Pure fiction.

We know from the absentee requests that 2010 is about 4% more favorable to republicans than 2008.  "Democrats" does not directly translate to "Obama voters", nor "republicans" to "McCain" voters, but it is pretty close.  Four percent, not thirteen percent.

Additionally a 4% difference means the absolute maximum Obama no show rate would be 8%, not 25%.

PPP and Muhlenberg have been pushing this idea of massive no shows, instead of the idea that people (gasp) could actually change their minds, but we know have objective data from absentees in PA (and early voting in Nevada and other states) that shows this massive no showism is nonsense.  If the absentee rate carries over to the election day results, at least 17% of the Obama voters that Muhlenberg thinks are huddled in their closets will in fact come to the polls (probably with their cellphones in their pockets), giving Sestak a boost of about 9%.

---

by: tommypaine @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 22:13:39 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The Muhlenberg tracker

is conducted with fewer than 500 surveys over four days: not even 125 on any given day. So it's going to be volatile and have a high margin of error. I wouldn't get too concerned about it. A great, pro-Dem day could easily tip the balance in the other direction, overstating Sestak support. We'll see!

---

by: itskevin @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 22:54:09 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Muhlenberg provides all the numbers

You can see the same wild Obama no-show numbers every day.  They do fluctuate somewhat, but no day has come close to the actual 4% number reflected in the absentees.

If turnout is what the absentees suggest, and voters perform relative to Obama/McCain how Muhlenberg says, Sestak wins.

---

by: tommypaine @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 23:19:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yeah, I know. Right?

And we will have 300 House seats after the election as well as 67 Senate seats.

Because we all know Sestak is going to win by 10 (that's a minimum), Feingold by 15 (maybe 20), Boxer by 20 (more than 2004), and Murray by 15. We are also going to pickup a seat in Missouri, hold Ohio, and Manchin is going to slam dunk Raese.

Right?

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

---

by: TheGradyDem @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 23:33:14 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

If you are going to smoke opium, bring enough for the whole class

Manchin will slam dunk Raese, but aside from that you need to curb your pharmaceutical use.

Aside from that, why is it sooooooo hard for you to accept that people can change their minds?  Why do you insist no one who voted for Obama in 2008 could possible vote for Toomey?

If all the objective evidence can't put a dent in your opinion, I suppose the actual results won't deter you on election night either.

---

by: tommypaine @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 23:39:39 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

So you expect the polls to be completely wrong on election night?

i.e. the small Toomey leads will turn into a 7% Sestak lead? (Didn't you say somewhere Sestak would gain 9?)

Manchin will win by 10%? Is that your definition of a "slam-dunk?"

Do you think Feingold will win? By how much? Boxer? Murray?

What I don't think is that Democratic enthusiasm is going to rival 2008 levels.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

---

by: TheGradyDem @ Thu Oct 28, 2010 at 03:44:03 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think what I've said

1)  that turnout will not be at historic lows as PPP has suggested.

2)  that Obama no-shows will be in the ballpark of previous years, and that would be under 10% everywhere, except perhaps VA, NC, SC and GA.

3)  that where Democrats lose places that Obama carried (or were won in 2008) it will be because voters change their minds, rather than stay home in massive, unprecedented numbers.

You say now: "I don't think is that Democratic enthusiasm is going to rival 2008 levels."  I say, who cares?  Why are you even mentioning that?  It's a totally useless statement.  They don't count "enthusiasm".  The count votes, which reflect turnout.  Enthusiasm is not part of the counting equation.

You previously asserted that in PA the vote would turn out to be +6 Mccain.  For that to happen it would require Obama turnout to be about 70% of Mccain... and that is just plain ridiculous.  The reality of the absentee information is a 4% more Republican electorate than 2008.  A four percent change can occur multiple ways from 2% of the 2008Dems re-registering as Republicans, to 8% of Obama voters not showing.  But 8% is the absolute maximum (if the absentee data posted her is accurate).

You are saying there will be a 30% Obama no show rate.  I have been saying it will be nowhere near that, and the possible 8% maximum is plausible -- though I think there will be some reregistering so I think Obama no-shows will more likely be about 5-6% max in PA.  But again, we know the maximum is about 8% for the absentee ballot requests.

What I haven't done is predict anything about candidates (besides just now saying Manchin will win pretty easily).  

The PPP and Muhlenberg polls of PA are objectively wrong in terms of their samples, if the total turnout follow the absentee ballot requests in a normal way.  That doesn't mean though that they are wrong in terms of getting people to answer the questions honestly.  So, if you adjust the turnout to be similar to the absentee requests in PA, that leads an objective mathematical answer that favors Sestak.

It's just math based on real figures, not your guesses or pollster guesses, or bad random samples.

The bottom line again is, I think these elections will be decided by voters choosing candidates, not because of unheard of, massive no-showing... and every early voting and absentee request bit of data posted here agrees with that 100%.

In other words, Sestak might lose by 50 points, but if that happens it will be because people who voted for Obama voted for Toomey, and not because they stayed home.

---

by: tommypaine @ Thu Oct 28, 2010 at 07:12:33 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

WI-GOV - Scotty sez

Walker 52, Barrett 42

http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

---

by: spiderdem @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 12:07:53 PM UTC

OR-GOV - Portland Tribune

Dudley 46, Kitzhaber 43

Hibbits, Davis & Midgehall is the pollster.

http://www.sherwoodgazette.com...

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

---

by: spiderdem @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 12:09:48 PM UTC

Never heard of the pollster...

First lead for Dudley I've seen in a while, too. I'm suspicious.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

---

by: SaoMagnifico @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 12:34:36 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Hibbits

It's a known Oregon pollster

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8

---

by: MosheM @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 12:45:19 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Hibbits is the gold standard for OR

as good as Elway in WA, almost as good as Field in CA.

There have been Oregonian (main Portland newspaper) exposes on Kitzhaber attack ads that seem to be having some effect.  

---

by: tietack @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 13:54:37 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Elway seems to have had some real outliers this year though, no?

x

38, Male, SP, NL / LMP, HU

---

by: nimh @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 15:37:24 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Relative to other pollsters, yes

but I remain hopeful -- if they're right, Murray will win in a walk on election day.

---

by: tietack @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 15:57:54 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

So, it's tied

Which is what most polls show at this point in elections.

---

by: Icarus23k @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 13:03:48 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Right

there is 100% consensus on a statistical dead heat within the last few weeks.  In fact, every other poll has the same result: Kitzhaber +1.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

---

by: spiderdem @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 13:08:48 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Scotty corroborates Hibbetts: Dudley 49-46 now......

Still behind paywall, but Ras now has Dudley up 3 with leaners, 45-44 before leaners.  He's got Dudley winning a lot more crossovers and winning indies by double-digits.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

---

by: DCCyclone @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 13:51:32 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

FL-GOV

Susquehanna tracking poll says Scott up 47-45. They try to spin it on "BlackberryGate"...

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8

---

by: MosheM @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 12:10:00 PM UTC

Here's the link.

http://www.sunshinestatenews.c...

Not that I doubt the lead, but most of us probably know this is a Republican pollster working for a Republican rag.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

---

by: spiderdem @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 12:12:48 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

We Ask America

If they're really planning of going into the polling business, why are they suddenly quiet, 2 polls for all of the last month. Highly suspicious.

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8

---

by: MosheM @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 12:43:56 PM UTC

Hall up by 1 in Siena poll

47-46.

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedf...

---

by: Paleo @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 13:02:05 PM UTC

I was kind of expecting that.

---

by: Icarus23k @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 13:09:57 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I was expecting

a huge Hayworth lead after the 26-point shift to Chris Gibson in neighboring NY-20 yesterday. How does this make sense in light of that?  Something's not right.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

---

by: spiderdem @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 13:11:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I was kind of expecting it because....

...it seemed to me that people were getting a little too hyped up about the NY-20 poll from yesterday. The NY-20 poll was absurd, of course, and I was expecting a contradictory poll to come out to today that emphasizes the absurdity of Siena's methods.  

---

by: Icarus23k @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 13:18:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

You can't make sense of that. Which is why what I've learned about House polling is...

...it largely must be disregarded.

It's ALWAYS been said as an axiom that House races are hard to poll.

Well, this cycle we're learning that through ample illustrations of massively diverging House polls, showing massive movements in short amounts of time or wild divergence among polls at the same time.  With that kind of volatility in polling results, even the "totality of polling" rule is of little value.

I still take note of the House polls as tea leaves, but ultimately I take them as "valid" only if almost all the polls in a given race say the SAME thing.  Those are the races where a Dem internal will say "we're down only 3!" even though the Dem incumbent is at 41, and that's to answer released GOP internals or public polls that show the Dem down big.  In THAT type of scenario, we KNOW the Dem is down and out, or very close to it.

But in all these races where Siena says Scott Murphy down 9 and he says up 6, or Patrick Murphy is anywhere from down 10 to up 4, I pretty much refuse to accept any poll at face value and just conclude these are competitive races where other tea leaves must be relied upon, such as party committee spending and the Cook, Rothenberg, and other professional prognosticators' ratings and comments.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

---

by: DCCyclone @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 13:25:52 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I suspect it's softness + undecideds

As I think you've noted, more voters don't think about house races until late.

That suggests larger numbers of undecideds -- along with softness in the vote of those who are decided, probably enhanced by the relative craziness of this particular cycle.

---

by: tietack @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 14:09:54 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yup, all correct. And the other problem is...

...it's hard to guess the turnout model where there are other things on the ballot driving turnout.

Really, if I'm polling PA-08 with Patrick Murphy vs. Fitzpatrick, should I be probing for likely voters in the House race, or should I instead ask if respondents are likely to vote in the Senate and Governor's races?  After all, those people are going to be at the polling place already with the House race right there on the ballot, and NOT many of them will simply leave it blank like they might for local stuff like a nonpartisan soil conservation commissioner's race.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

---

by: DCCyclone @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 14:19:33 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

You can't turn on the radio without an anti-Hall ad...

...or maybe it's just that I tend to listen to news stations (880, 1010, 1130) since they usually have the better traffic reports.  At this point I can almost recite Hayworth's ads by heart.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

---

by: Taget @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 16:03:15 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Early voting impacts on exit polls...

This is a general question that seems appropriate in the polling section. How or does the increase in early voting impact exit polling?  

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...

---

by: sebby123 @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 13:08:56 PM UTC

Easy question to answer

It makes them even less reliable than they were before. Which reminds me, I've been going back to exit polls from 2004, 2006, 2008 and using them to compare the polls that we are seeing 2010. I probably need to stop that, especially in the future, because as exit polls become more and more unreliable, you should use them less and less to compare/contrast polls for upcoming elections.

---

by: Icarus23k @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 13:15:22 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Thanks...

I thought that this would be the answer but I just asked in case there was some new, unknown method that exit polls use to account for it.  

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...

---

by: sebby123 @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 13:25:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Oregon has been all-mail balloting for years and still they had a 2008 exit poll, and...

...I have no idea how they did it.  They had 1,249 "exit poll" respondents in Oregon in 2008, and I can't imagine they did any other way but by phone.  The only difference from a pre-election poll, I guess, is that they ask if the respondent has voted, rather than if the respondent is registered to vote or likely to vote.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

---

by: DCCyclone @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 13:28:37 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Wild guess w/r/t Oregon exit polls

There are physical ballot "drop off" stations around the state, and they do get busy on election day.

Votes that are mailed and arrive after election day are not counted, so late voters frequently make the effort to do physical delivery of their ballots.

So the drop off stations would be perfect places for exit pollsters.

---

by: tietack @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 14:06:48 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

That shouldnt be a problem.

From what I understand, exit polls are adjusted several times on election night as the actual results come in, and a final time once all the votes are in. That's why the top lines end up being near-identical to the actual result.

If you look up the exit polls from previous elections on CNN or whatnot, you'll usually see either the final adjusted exit poll numbers, or the final one that was available at the end of the night when they stopped updating their website - either way, usually closely adjusted enough to match the actual result. The sub-categories are adjusted likewise as data from individual districts/precincts/etc come in.

Whether those adjustments by subcategory can be wholly trusted is I guess a separate debate, but any imbalances that existed because of who was (and wasn't) interviewed for the exit polls on election day should be evened out in the numbers you can look up now, so in that sense at least you should be able to use them fine for comparison purposes.  

38, Male, SP, NL / LMP, HU

---

by: nimh @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 13:35:18 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Arcuri by 5 in Siena poll

48-43.

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedf...

---

by: Paleo @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 13:35:58 PM UTC

I never thought

that Scott Murphy would lose before Hall and Arcuri.

---

by: thematt523 @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 13:43:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

......and I don't think he will......

I bet Scott Murphy wins.  I have a hard time believing NY-20 voters are out for blood more than voters in Hall's or Arcuri's districts.

And if Murphy loses, I bet Hall, too, goes down.  I hesitate to say the same about Arcuri because he seems to lead in almost all polling this cycle!  But still hard for me to see Scott Murphy go down when he was deemed safer than these other two, and safer even than Tim Bishop, all year until just now.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

---

by: DCCyclone @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 13:49:06 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I want to believe that the latest Siena poll is an outlier

Until now, all other NY-20 polling showed significant leads for Murphy.

But the latest Murphy internal of a 3 point lead, to me, is discouraging, a sign of a trend against us in eastern Upstate NY (Hall/Murphy/Owens).

---

by: tietack @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 14:03:35 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Gonna disagree on the trend with Hall and Owens

I've seen 4 behind, 1 behind, even, and 1 ahead (today's) in that order.  If anything it's been trending TOWARDS Hall (and considering his past races, i'd buy that...he's a very likable guy).

Owens' polling have been all over the place.

---

by: thurst44 @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 15:55:08 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Murphy will

be find because Gillibrand and Schumer and Coumo will all win his district, Gillibrand by double digits.  

---

by: jwaalk @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 16:57:56 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

i could see murphy lose

Such a rural area is bound to have some libertarians who sat out the races since Sweeney lost who are electrified now.  I'm not sure people have turned on Murphy, I think Gibson might just be tapping many non-voters from recent years.

---

by: rdw72777 @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 14:59:39 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Along with the 47-46 Hall lead

I think this shows that the NY-20 poll from yesterday was bs, or at the very least a very poor sample.  There's no way Scott Murphy is running that far behind Michael Arcuri and Hall, who are in virtually identical PVI districts as Murphy is, within the same region.  

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

---

by: StephenCLE @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 14:25:31 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Different type of Republicans

PVI or no PVI.  24 and 19 had moderate Republicans like Boehlert and Kelly.  NY 20 had Sweeney, a conservative.  And 19 has more of a NYC influence.

---

by: Paleo @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 14:34:01 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

What does that have to do with anything?

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

---

by: StephenCLE @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 14:59:39 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Huh?

NY 20 is a more "conservative" district than 24 and 19.

---

by: Paleo @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 15:05:51 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I live in NY 20

and according to this poll people must have a short memory.  The two prior republicans were a crook and wife beater and the one before that totally bonkers.  Gillibrand and Murphy are sane and rational plus hard working and very effective.  Gibson might look OK but can't trust the republicans and will never vote for one again.

---

by: laternighter @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 18:19:56 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Thus, more (possibly former) moderate Rs

in NY-19 and 24 who are willing to cross-over and vote for Hall and Arcuri.

---

by: tietack @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 15:59:35 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

2010

I think as of right now this is likely...

50-60 net loss in the House
7-8 net loss in the Senate
8-10 net loss in Governorships

Pretty depressing.  Only good thing is we will have a much more liberal House roster, but then again getting things passed in the house was never really a problem this year outside of one or two votes.  It's been the Senate that has killed us.

29/D/Male/NY-01

---

by: Tekzilla @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 13:40:16 PM UTC

the House and Senate

predictions seem right, but your governor's predictions are a little pessimistic. Name the 8-10 net seats we'd lose.

---

by: thematt523 @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 13:44:29 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Agree

The net will be more like 6.

---

by: Paleo @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 13:46:30 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Off the top of my head...

Likely to flip to Republican:

Kansas
Wyoming
Illinois
Wisconsin
Michigan
Tennessee
Maine
New Mexico
Pennsylvania
Iowa
Oklahoma

Democrat-held tossups:

Ohio
Oregon

Republican-held tossups:

Rhode Island
Vermont

Independent-held tossups:

Florida

Likely to flip to Democrat:

Hawaii
California
Minnesota
Connecticut

I'm predicting the following:

Kansas (D->R)
Wyoming (D->R)
Illinois (D->R)
Wisconsin (D->R)
Michigan (D->R)
Tennessee (D->R)
Maine (D->R)
New Mexico (D->R)
Pennsylvania (D->R)
Iowa (D->R)
Oklahoma (D->R)
Ohio (D->R)
Rhode Island (R->I)
Florida (I->D)
Hawaii (R->D)
California (R->D)
Minnesota (R->D)
Connecticut (R->D)

That's a net loss of seven right there, and I think Florida and Oregon (as well as Vermont and maybe Ohio) are going to come down to the wire.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

---

by: SaoMagnifico @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 13:53:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Do you have specific races that you think we will lose?

Or is this based on your review of the polls?  Just asking because I am very new at this.  I intuitively know that the most likely outcome is what the polling "experts" predict and their numbers are starting to converge.  But I wonder if some of that is based on their experience as well as "confirmation bias" because everyone has been preaching a huge storm for about 10-15 months.  

FWIW, I feel that the Dems will not hold the house, but I am not sure by how much.  

I go from being extremely sad about it to at peace with it because it will force the Repubs to do something vs. just simply opposing something.  But I also fear what they will try to do.

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...

---

by: sebby123 @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 13:49:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I HOPE, and so should you, the GOP House tries to do what you FEAR they will do......

We're going to hold the Senate, I'm more confident of that now than I was anytime this month.

And we have the White House.

So whatever Boehner/Cantor/et al. do that isn't cooperative will disappear into a black hole.  But if they overreach, it makes news and reminds America why they hated Republicans in the first place.

So yes, please God let the House Republicans try to push all kinds of crazy shit.  Please have them listen to Mike Pence and refuse to compromise.

I want them to expose themselves.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

---

by: DCCyclone @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 14:01:25 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I guess that you...

are right about that because the one saving grace of this wave is that the public still does not have a favorable view of the Republican party.  Really, who could have a favorable view of Boehner and Cantor?  I want Ryan, Cantor and the rest of their "Young Guns" to force social security privitization, health care repeal, Wall Street reform repeal, and then top it off with a big tax cut for the wealthy.  

The banks still are not solvent so what will they do if the unthinkable happens again?  

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...

---

by: sebby123 @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 14:08:01 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Huge saving grace...

Not that I want to get into a huge policy debate which is frowned up here but you are right in that fact that while the Democratic party has slipped in popularity the Republican party really hasn't tremendously gained to fill the vacuum. I could be wrong on this but I don't see huge outreaches to voters based upon ideas other then intangibles like "cut spending, stop government takeovers, etc.". Those intangibles are not going to be met in 2 years. Ideas as far as job creation, energy, health care and immigration seem to be "we are not the Democrats". That can only work for so long and in a midterm where the voters are older and whiter it will be hard to push this in 2012 with a bigger electorate. The great thing about 2008 was that Democrats registered a lot of new voters and were able to get a lot of "new" voters to become engaged in the process. While people may be dispirited the amount of voters registered and involved in the process can't be understated. I don't see Boehner and Cantor as very polished politicians to the extent that McConnell and Kyl are. Perception matters and people are constantly making fun of Boehner's tan and whether its real or fake. Their uncompromising ways will definitely backfire on them and none of them has the charisma or savy that Obama has.  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

---

by: Cool_Arrow @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 14:45:08 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Early Voting in NC - Indy's Sitting it Out?

Early voting stats thru 10/26 for NC:

Dem: 44.91%
GOP: 37.90%
Indy: 17.09%

Democrats turnout margin over GOP thru 10/26: 7.01%
Democrats turnout margin over GOP thru 10/25: 6.61%
The Dems' margin has increased every day since 10/20, when it was 6.04%.

Registration by party:
Dem: 44.65%
GOP: 31.59%
Indy: 23.61%

Party registration has not budged during early voting, when voters can show up, register, and vote all at the same time. Only 3,867 voters have been added to the registration rolls during early voting - 1,588 GOP, 1,447 Indy, 749 Dem, and 83 Libs. With almost 6.2 million registered voters, that doesn't move the needle any.

Bottom line: Dems are outperforming their registration numbers by .3%, GOPTeabaggers are outperfoming their registration numbers by 6.3%, and Indys are underperforming by 6.5%.

I guess you could say the enthusiasm gap is twice as bad with Indy's as it is with Democrats in NC.

 

---

by: bear83 @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 13:49:55 PM UTC

It makes you wonder...

...if NC polls are inaccurate because of oversampling "others" or "independents".

---

by: Icarus23k @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 13:53:11 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

No, see my comment below......

The parties work to get their partisans to vote early, and no one does that with indies.  Indies will show up in massive numbers on election day.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

---

by: DCCyclone @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 14:05:19 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I did feel early on that if...

there was an enthusiasm gap, it would be with Indy's because they very well could be disgusted with both parties and decide to stay home.  

It seems that midterms are more base elections than anything else.  What would really motivate a true Indy with no particular party leaning to get out and vote at a high rate? I am going to think about that one.  

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...

---

by: sebby123 @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 13:54:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

This is normal and doesn't reflect the final makeup of the electorate......

The parties work aggressively to get their own partisans to vote early, and no one is doing that with independents whose intentions are uncertain.  So early voters always skew much more partisan than the total electorate.

Election-day voting makes up for it with independents representing a hugely disproportionate share of the voters that day, and Dems and GOPers will be a much smaller share than they would be if there was no early voting.

So don't take anything from indies in the early voting, instead the partisan turnout and gap is all that matters.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

---

by: DCCyclone @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 14:04:37 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I actually don't think that Indie # is far from the truth...

My voter model shows Indies making-up a slightly-higher 19%, but think about it...what's going to drive and excite non-affiliated voters to the polls? Richard Burr? Elaine Marshall? That no-name libertarian candidate? There's nothing/no one interesting atop the ballot to enthuse this crowd.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

---

by: andyroo312 @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 15:11:26 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

That no-name Libertarian candidate

actually sounded better than Burr in the one debate he got to participate in. At least right up until he called Social Security a Ponzi Scheme, Rand Paul-style.

---

by: bear83 @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 18:37:44 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

PA-9 POS poll above

I still got to go back to the Harstad poll from late September that found, of the voters that voting in 2006, the numbers break 52% to 44% in favor of Murphy.

http://webcache.googleusercont...

That's a pretty unbiased, impressive metric to use. And the POS poll makes no mention of a similar metric.  

---

by: Icarus23k @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 13:50:02 PM UTC

^PA-8

Sorry

---

by: Icarus23k @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 13:50:37 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

NV-Sen: Bad news & good news...

Bad news: Ralston is reporting another fairly good day for the GOP in early voting.

Good news: It wasn't as bad as Monday. The Dems' raw vote lead for Tuesday jumped back to 800 (out of another 20,000 votes cast). Again, remember that many of the vote sites yesterday were in hostile territory, like Sun City Anthem, Boulder City, and Mesquite (all GOP strongholds). So in fact, it's quite good that our margin yesterday doubled over Monday (when it was just 400).

And even more good news: Starting today, we're getting early vote sites in Old Town Henderson and North Las Vegas, MUCH friendlier territory with many Dems who may not have voted yet. And tomorrow, we're getting even more "last minute" early vote sites in North Las Vegas and The East Side, two Dem strongholds. Hopefully, we can close well in these last 3 days of early voting.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

---

by: atdleft @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 14:05:20 PM UTC

Thanks, and I hope you're right about mobile sites causing the skew......

Ralston isn't citing that and I suppose may not be aware of it.

But if what you say is true, it means we'll have unusually strong dominance the final 2 days, and maybe do well today, too.  If that doesn't happen, then I would guess an enthusiasm gap is real, at least in early voting so that we'd have to somehow make it up on election day.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

---

by: DCCyclone @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 14:08:46 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Remember, we had a bigger lead yesterday...

Than Monday, and we still saw plenty of early voting in hostile territory yesterday. (Believe me, Boulder City, Mesquite, and the Sun Cities are where you'll find the most Angle signs south of the Lincoln County line). I have a feeling "The Red SURGE!!!" is tapering off. I think if today's numbers show us back to a 4 digit lead, we'll be fine. And if we can perhaps overperform in the final 2 days, we can erase some of these last 2 days' carnage and finish early voting relatively strong.

In everything I've seen here in the last 6 months, I've hardly caught any "ENTHUSIASM GAP!!!" Sure, there are some disillusioned Dems... But there are also disillusioned GOPers, and many more Indies that just may not vote. Both bases are pretty revved up, so it just comes down to whether we can turn out our base better and win more persuadable Indies and moderate R's.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

---

by: atdleft @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 14:23:04 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Early Voting back in Sun City today

Jon Ralston is reporting Early Voting is back in Sun City today as well.  And it is Thursday and Friday that Democrats will have the voting in more friendly territory.

[quote]
Democrats hope to do better in the final two days, but Tuesday and Wednesday, the mobile early voting sites are in more GOP areas, including Sun City communities.
[/quote]

---

by: indyvoter @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 14:43:30 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Just one...

Sun City MacDonald Ranch, which is the one closest to me. And yes, I've walked it... It's brutal!

However it's the only Sun City with an early voting site today (Anthem, Aliante, and Summerlin were all Monday and yesterday), and I believe it's the smallest of the Sun Cities, so I have a feeling today's numbers won't be quite as skewed as the last two.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

---

by: atdleft @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 14:47:48 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well based on your multiple comments here, shouldn't there BE a skew in OUR favor?......

You've said here there are new voting sites today in multiple Democratic precincts and a mobile site in only one small Republican precinct.  So shouldn't there BE a skew in OUR favor today?

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

---

by: DCCyclone @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 14:52:57 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm not as sure about today...

But definitely tomorrow and Friday. At the very least, we should see better numbers today than we did these last 2. Today is the last day of early voting in Mesquite, and Sun City MacDonald Ranch is voting today and tomorrow (2 strong GOP areas), but they may be cancelled out by early voting in more Dem-leaning areas like Old Henderson and North LV. The other areas look more evenly divided.

But without a doubt, tomorrow and Friday we'll see more East Side and North LV sites. That's good for us, without a doubt.  

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

---

by: atdleft @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 15:02:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

OK, thanks. (nm)

nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

---

by: DCCyclone @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 15:03:40 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I hope you're right, and Ralston's blog post at least gives a nod to your claim......

Ralston finally acknowledged the mobile voting sites as a factor in his blog post today.  But he still leaned to the pessimistic side for Democrats.  The GOP is up to a 4% advantage now on turnout, and we need to get that back down a point or two by the weekend.

I really hope you're right, atd!

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

---

by: DCCyclone @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 14:47:30 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

He should have noted that yesterday...

But whatever. I know he's finally getting the big media he deserves, so he's basking in the glory of it all. Sometimes, I just have to get past the drama if I want to keep a level head and get any work done!

I know I'm no pundit like Ralston, so I won't challenge him on what he's saying. I'll just tell you this, DC. I live here. I see with my own 2 eyes what's happening. I'm at the door when I see Republican neighbors tell me they're voting for Reid, and I see 85% of the Dem neighbors I talk to vote early as soon as they hear from me. Now, it's just a matter of me taking care of that last 15% of slackers and those few undecideds left. :-)

And btw, I have friends down in The East Side... They've been "hella busy" rounding up Dems to vote, and they've been telling me they see no "enthusiasm gap" whatsoever. Hopefully when they get more early vote sites tomorrow, we'll see even better results.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

---

by: atdleft @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 14:55:10 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I believe you, but please also answer my question above......

You seem to say today (Wednesday) there are more new/mobile voting sites in Democratic precincts than in Republican ones, so shouldn't we start seeing a skew in OUR favor when today's numbers come out?  And if not, why?...what am I missing or overreading?

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

---

by: DCCyclone @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 15:02:33 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not sure what the turnout margin needs to be

I do think that Nate Silver makes a great point, when he asks what previous year do you compare the numbers to?  2008 is not a good indication, as it is not a midterm, and was most likely the high point for Democratic Turnout.  But, 2006 and 2004 are not great either, because neither party, especially the Democratic Party hadn't put near as much emphasis on early voting as they have the last two elections, and it atleast seems to me, this year in particular.

---

by: indyvoter @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 15:04:39 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

2006 is probably the best choice...

It was the last midterm. Certainly the dynamics then were much different from now, but midterms are just an entirely different ball game from Presidential years.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

---

by: atdleft @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 16:33:51 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I would agree

If you HAVE to choose one, then 2006 is probably the best year.  But, realistically, with how much early voting has taken off.  I don't think there is a good comparison, given how much the dynamics have changed.

---

by: indyvoter @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 17:12:09 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

There was early voting here in 2006...

It hasn't changed that much.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

---

by: atdleft @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 17:24:28 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

What has changed, is how much it is pushed

Yes there was early voting in 2006, but early voting has never been as popular as it is today.  And neither party pushed early voting nearly as much then as they do today, especially Democrats.

You are assuming a whole lot to assume that the percentage of people voting early from each party will stay the same when you are dealing with a small portion of the vote compared to maybe even close to half the people who are going to vote in some states.

Personal opinion, you can make just as strong of argument that the current numbers are very good news for Democrats as you can that the current numbers are very good news for Republicans.

So, I don't take the numbers as either good news or bad news for either party right now, but instead just an interesting fact.

---

by: indyvoter @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 19:10:25 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

can we assume

all the Republicans voted for Angle? Reid has quite a few Republican endorsers.

---

by: desmoinesdem @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 16:06:24 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

No... Probably somewhere in the 80s...

In my model, I gave Reid 89% of Democrats and 10% of Republicans, and I gave Angle 5% of Democrats and 86% of Republicans. In other polls, Angle has gotten anywhere from 80-85% of Republicans while Reid almost always holds a higher % of Democrats.

So when looking at the turnout numbers, keep in mind that the vast majority of Dems are breaking for Reid, most Reeps are breaking for Angle (but with some breaking our way), and Nonpartisans and others may be close to even or slightly breaking for Angle (even The R-J only had Angle leading Indies by 8%, so she likely doesn't have any sort of huge advantage that can fully offset losing some Reeps).

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

---

by: atdleft @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 16:29:02 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

In

terms of early voting I disagree. I think most Republicans who early vote will vote Angle. I think most Reid Republicans are not enthusiastic enough to actually vote early. Just my take though.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

---

by: hoosierdem @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 17:45:25 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not necessarily...

I have three neighbors who I know for sure are Republicans for Reid. Two have already voted. (The third may just wait until Tuesday because he's "traditional". See last paragraph.)

Not all of them are enthusiastic about voting for Reid, but I can guarantee you all of the ones who have decided to vote for Reid already ARE enthusiastic about ending Angle's political career. Remember, this cycle there's a whole lot of negative motivation playing out on all sides here in Nevada.

As I said below, the ones holding out are either "traditionalists" who prefer to vote on Election Day or undecideds who are not yet sold on Reid or Angle.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

---

by: atdleft @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 18:00:08 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

AK-Sen: ARCC withdraws McAdams endorsement, bolts for Murkowski

http://newsminer.com/pages/ful...

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

---

by: andyroo312 @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 15:13:41 PM UTC

Still a little amazed at Miller's utter collapse

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

---

by: Bob Bobson @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 15:58:51 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

eh

I'm never surprised when a rookie candidate implodes. I'm surprised when the same thing happens to someone who's been through a few campaigns.  

41, Ind, CA-05

---

by: sacman701 @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 16:06:10 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Convergence in WV-Sen

Rasmussen: Manchin up 49-46.

Rasmussen had Raese up by 7% last week, by 3% just yesterday (=Fox)!

---

by: LeftistAddiction @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 15:19:18 PM UTC

Does Scotty's left hand know what his right hand is doing?

Or does he have two right hands?

---

by: Paleo @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 15:22:05 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

In this case "convergence" is really Scotty waving the white flag and saying...

..."it was fun while it lasted, but I have the tattered remains of a reputation to protect."

Crosstabs have Manchin now tied with indies and near-equal crossover support.  Crosstabs are unreliable but if these 2 things prove true on election day, then I think a more favorable turnout model than Rasmussen shows will end up catapulting him to a bigger margin of victory than a "tossup" rating would suggest.

I'm feeling VERY good about our holding the Senate now.  I see us holding WV, WA (most voters have already voted so any Rossi "surge" is too late), and CA (Boxer is pulling away).  So I see a loss of 8 as our worst-case now, and that still requires the unthinkable result of Sharron Angle getting elected.

And keeping our losses down to just 5 is actually realistic, even if we lose over 50 House seats.  Giannoulias still has a realistic path to victory, Reid still has a very realistic path to victory, and Bennet has surged at just the right time with Buck still unable to stay on message.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

---

by: DCCyclone @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 15:27:59 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

So

that Rand Paul supporter that stomped on that woman at the debate a few nights ago....he wants her to apologize to him! Wtf?!

http://thinkprogress.org/2010/...

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

---

by: ehstronghold @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 15:21:13 PM UTC

I saw that earlier and...

I just cannot with these people anymore...

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...

---

by: sebby123 @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 15:47:51 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

idiot

He's an idiot, that's wtf. Idiots do idiotic things because they're idiots.

41, Ind, CA-05

---

by: sacman701 @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 16:08:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

AR 2: Griffin 50 Elliott 38

http://arkansasmatters.com/ele...

---

by: Paleo @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 15:54:11 PM UTC

A positive angle to think about

Republicans will be in jeopardy of losing many of the seats that they pick up in either the next cycle or future cycles. In many of the seats, they are choosing much more right-wing candidates than represented the districts before. For example, if Dan Webster were to win over Grayson, Webster is certainly much more to the right than Ric Keller and could struggle to hold onto an Orlando area districts if he's voting for tax cuts for the wealthy and cutting education. Of course, we'll have to see what happens with redistricting, but this generation of new Republicans in Congress is not going to be the same as the Leaches, Shays, and Northups who once held swing districts for Republicans. I think we can expect little bipartisan from many of these Republicans, which could hurt them in many of these districts used to less partisan Republicans.

---

by: Progressive America @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 15:55:37 PM UTC

WA 9 SUSA

Smith by 3.

http://blog.thenewstribune.com...

---

by: Paleo @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 15:56:21 PM UTC

early voting numbers in Iowa

Democrats still have an edge. As of today, 355,192 Iowans have requested an absentee ballot and 254,836 ballots have been received by county auditors.

Among Iowans who have requested absentee ballots, 158,286 (44.6%) are registered Democrats, 129,316 (36.4%) are Republicans, 67,288 (18.9%) are no-party voters and 302 have some other registration. Those whose ballots have already been returned to county auditors include 114,193 Democrats (44.8%), 97,398 Republicans (38.2%), 43,037 no-party voters (16.9%) and 208 voters with a different registration.

The total number of Iowa votes cast in the 2006 general election was 1,044,459.  

---

by: desmoinesdem @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 16:05:41 PM UTC

This is absenteee ballots only and not in-person

early voting right? Do you have any idea what the numbers are for in-person voting? I'd expect that Dems would do better there.

---

by: askew @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 18:29:16 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Downballot CA races

Finally we get some recent polling on the LG and AG races. Glad to see the Dems leading in both, because Maldonaldo and Cooley could both become strong statewide GOP threats in the future.

What worries me is that Suffolk has Brown and Boxer's leads close to the high end of what we see, so it might be inflated by a few points. Granted, they'll still win, but that suggest this might be leading too hard to the Dems, which is not great news for Kamala Harris if she's essentially tied with Cooley.

Glad to see Newsom with the same margin as Brown. All my Republican relatives hate Newsom for his 2003 gay marriage showdown and insisted he was far too left even for California. Glad to see they're being proven wrong.

24, CA-14, previously DC-AL

---

by: Ellipsis @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 16:19:56 PM UTC

I don't understand why there are some CA Dems that voted for Cooley or Malando

They are essentially helping the GOP pick their next gubernatorial/senatorial candidate in the state.  It's dumb, especially for an office like AG.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

---

by: daman09 @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 16:51:52 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Maldonado is overperforming among Hispanics

and underperforming among whites, if the SUSA crosstabs are to be believed. Whitman and Fiorina have moderate leads among white voters but are getting absolutely crushed with Hispanics. Maldonado is tied among both groups. Newsom has a huge lead among Asians, several points bigger than Brown or Boxer, perhaps because of his popularity in Asian-heavy San Francisco?

Total conjecture here, but I'm guessing Maldonado is doing poorly among SoCal white conservatives who have knee-jerk reactions against anyone with a Spanish-sounding name.

I remember hearing about a poll a few years back in which SoCal conservatives picking between two hypothetical candidates with Anglo surnames would overwhelmingly pick the conservative candidate, but if the conservative was given a Spanish surname, they overwhelmingly elected the Democrat instead, even if they disagreed with his positions. Might be apocryphal, but that type of knee-jerk racism sounds about right for today's GOP.

As for Cooley, I think he's really popular in LA County? Plus there's a lot more money being thrown around in the AG race, especially from out-of-state conservatives:

http://www.sacbee.com/2010/10/...

24, CA-14, previously DC-AL

---

by: Ellipsis @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 17:09:36 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

But if people are already going to vote for

Boxer, Brown, and Newsome, then chances are pretty high they will vote for Harris. I could see her winning, but by the smallest margin perhaps. God I hope she wins!  

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

---

by: ndrwmls10 @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 17:38:34 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Its understanding for Cooley

He is in his 60's, so he does not have much time left to run for higher office. If Brown retires in 2014, he could run, but if Brown runs again, Cooley would have no where to go until he was around 70, and thats too old unless you are Jerry Brown. Moladondo is definitely a future threat though if he wins. He could be a strong Senate candidate in 2012 if DiFi retires and he is very moderate, so he could get a lot of crossover support.  

---

by: GOPVOTER @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 18:44:45 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

IL-Sen: Rassy says Kirk up 46-42......

Yet another tea leaf suggesting Kirk has a slight edge.  I've been thinking for awhile that he does, and while Rassy is very erratic, this poll is plausible.

Ras has Giannoulias bleeding Dems badly, holding just 71% while losing 18% to Kirk and 11% to others or undecided.  The turnout model is fine, with 48D-32R, but there needs to be more base persuasion and extremely strong GOTV in Chicago to pull this out.

There are enough Democrats to carry Giannoulias to victory, but too many of them are saying they won't vote for him.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

---

by: DCCyclone @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 16:39:12 PM UTC

Why would 18% of Dems...

vote for Kirk?  I am confused.  

41 African-American Female DC
Taxation but no representation...

---

by: sebby123 @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 16:57:03 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Many downstate Dems will probably consider it

Plus, this is a state where about a tenth of Dems are self-described conservative and another 40% are moderates. If Kirk could win half of the conservaDems and a third of moderates, he'd have about 18%.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

---

by: andyroo312 @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 17:04:58 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It's not THAT much, actually.

Usually about 8-10% of a party votes for the opposing party's candidate, and to have a chance in a blue state Republicans have to go way beyond that.

Not sure I'm that horrified by the 18% number. It's more Giannoulias's 71% that's rough.

---

by: LeftistAddiction @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 17:06:21 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well crosstabs are unreliable and can be wrong, but these are plausible because...

...Giannoulias can't get out of the low 40s in ANY poll, and in a state as blue as Illinois that happens only by bleeding a lot of Dems.

Kirk is pro-choice and otherwise tried to cultivate a moderate image in a center-left Congressional district.  So he's going to appeal ideologically to blue doggy/moderate Dems.  Throw in Giannoulias being personally disliked by a lot of voters, and that makes it plausible that Kirk would draw more crossovers than is normal.

I'm starting to think we might actually lose this one and still win Colorado, the way things are trending.  And I'm more confident of West Virginia, too, now, than Illinois.  If we lose "only" 6 seats, I think Illinois might very well be one of the 6.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

---

by: DCCyclone @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 17:09:29 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Poor IL Voters

It is such a bad choice that IL voters have. I think more than the usual amount of Dems are defecting to Kirk as he is not a favorite of the tea party and his baggage is that he is an exaggerator at best and a liar at worst. I have been doing phone banking lately for OFA and we are calling IL-10 among other districts and at times and mentioning Alexi's name gets very negative reactions as opposed to mentioning Dan Seals name by far. I know Kirk represented there but still you can get a feeling when somebody is not really well received.

Darn you Lisa Magidan, you would have had this on cruise control right now! I always hate forward looking especially 6 years but whoever wins this is extremely badly damaged and hard to see them surviving another cycle.  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

---

by: Cool_Arrow @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 17:51:41 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Got an email from Durbin asking for money for GOTV...

He sounded rather panicky, really... not a typical fundraising letter.

Obama is going to do a series of Chicago rallies this weekend. Hopefully, that can put our guy over the top.

---

by: LordMike @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 17:20:52 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

My sense with this race

is that there will be serious movement this weekend, as undecideds decide and voters leaning toward third parties reconsider.

That's probably why Rove is spending so much here this week. And Obama's visiting over the weekend.

If Raz has Kirk +4, it's probably much closer to a tie with a tilt to Kirk. Let's see what happens.

---

by: itskevin @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 18:17:06 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Chicago-Mayor: Tom Dart passes on run

http://www.suntimes.com/news/m...

With Jesse Jackson Jr. and Luis Gutierrez already out, this probably makes Carol Moseley-Braun the clearest alternative to Emanuel.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

---

by: andyroo312 @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 16:51:36 PM UTC

Wow.

I thought he was the front runner as well.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

---

by: hoosierdem @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 17:20:33 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Wow, that is huge for Rahm.

I can't see CMB pulling off a win against Rahm, but you never know. What I can't see is why Rahm would even want the job. It is going to suck to be a mayor of a huge urban area like Chicago until the economy turns around.

---

by: askew @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 18:29:21 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

WA 3 SUSA

Herrera 50 Heck 46.

http://www.king5.com/community...

---

by: Paleo @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 16:54:22 PM UTC

John Raese......

Is it just me or does anybody else feel when they hear this guy speak that they're listening to the doctor with the worst bedside manner in memory?  For those who watch "Seinfeld", Raese reminds me of the doctor who broke the news to George that his fiancee died and later referred to George's reaction as "restrained jubilation".

---

by: Mark @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 17:04:41 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Oops...Accidental Reply....

Should have been a stand-alone post.

---

by: Mark @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 17:05:15 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I would have said a week ago

That this is a tie with SurveyUSA bias, but hell, based on their polls this week, Heck could be running away with it for all we know.  I think we're in not bad shape here, based on the DCCC's attack at it.  Could be anywhere from slightly down to slightly ahead.  At least this poll reflects tightening.

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by: rmpatrick @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 18:58:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

This could easily be the last House seat decided

Given WA's vote-by-mail laws, allowing counting of ballots --postmarked-- by election day.

It's conceivable (though still very highly unlikely) that this could 'break the tie' in an otherwise 217-217 House.

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by: tietack @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 19:07:48 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Given Survey USA's +4.6 R error rate on Washington races

I think we can say that this is a dead heat.  

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by: quiller @ Thu Oct 28, 2010 at 01:54:42 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

New NV-Sen TV ads...

From the DSCC...

At least this one makes an attempt to make a connection. IMHO their last one required too much "connect the dots". At least this one shows how extreme Angle is.

And here's Reid's newest ad... Pure brilliance. The hallmark of a great political ad for me is if it can deliver the message either muted OR without pictures, and this one does it. Just the image of the coffin, of the empty swing set, and of a blacked out CityCenter look frightening. It seems Reid and Titus got all the good ad makers, and the DSCC and DCCC are playing second fiddle here.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

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by: atdleft @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 17:11:58 PM UTC

You beat me to it.

Also, I have one question.  A few mobile voter stations are in GOP strongholds and the rest are in better places today?  Also, they'll all be in better spots tomorrow and Friday, right?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

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by: LookingOver @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 17:23:48 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yes.

Actually, today we should start to see improvement. See my above replies to DC. MacDonald Ranch is the only Sun City voting early today, as opposed to three (Anthem, Summerlin, and Aliante) in the last 2-3 days. And this is the last day of early voting in Mesquite.

Today we'll see 2 new North LV early voting sites, early voting in Henderson City Hall, and a new early voting site at the eastern side of Summerlin. All 4 areas lean Democratic, and may cancel out whatever disadvantage we have in Mesquite and MacRanch.

And without a doubt, tomorrow and Friday should be much easier for us, as even more North LV and East Side early voting sites open.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

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by: atdleft @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 17:50:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Notice the first ad

closes with "Vote No on Sharron Angle," not "Vote for Harry Reid."

I wonder if that's deliberate - to allow for the possibility of NOTA if for whatever reason the viewer just can't make the leap to Reid.

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by: itskevin @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 17:28:25 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

PS.

It probably makes sense to start the "No on Angle" strategy now, because early voting would be mostly strong supporters on either side. Softer supporters will wait till next Tuesday (or the end of early voting).

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by: itskevin @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 17:49:30 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Correct.

We're mostly seeing more hard partisans early vote. Notice how Nonpartisan turnout is lower than either GOP or Dem turnout. If the squishy folks still on the fence even vote at all, it will be next Tuesday.

And yes, this actually leaves multiple doors open. Either a still undecided voter could decide that Angle is just so nasty that one must hold the nose for Reid, or Reid is bad but Angle is horrifying so vote NOTA or Ashjian or someone else.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

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by: atdleft @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 17:55:16 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

OK, now I've watched the second one too...

and I absolutely LOVE it. It makes the anti-Angle case brilliantly. The image of the CityCenter lights going out? Powerful, potent.

That's some good shit.

Also, similar to Ad #1, the closing is "No" to Angle, not pro-Reid - i.e. it could be seen to either support Harry Reid or encourage voters who dislike Reid to move to NOTA, Ashjian, etc.

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by: itskevin @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 17:32:26 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Hanabusa up by 4

http://www.civilbeat.com/artic...

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by: Paleo @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 17:16:07 PM UTC

Woah, great news, and she's scraping up against 50% to boot! (nm)

nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 17:58:26 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Don't tell Mark

After all, yesterday he described Djou as "congressman for life."

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by: Paleo @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 18:02:02 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

My call?

Hanabusa by 5 or more.

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by: itskevin @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 18:04:15 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Sounds about right

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by: Paleo @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 18:07:01 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Where will Mark scrape up that 94th GOP pickup to make up for this? (nm)

nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 18:22:41 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

OH-06.....

....seems like a good bet.  Actually it's a target-rich environment for that 94th seat since I previously rated NY-20, VA-09, and KY-06 as staying Dem, with polls now putting those predictions in serious question.

Furthermore, this is the first poll that doesn't show Hanabusa trailing.  Show me a trendline before dancing in the endzone.

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by: Mark @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 19:21:19 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not true...

PPP had her +1 earlier this month.

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by: itskevin @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 19:42:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yup, and there were older polls from summer/early fall that went both ways. (nm)

nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 20:01:59 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

NRSC spending this week.

CO - $1.0MM - Indicative of close, competitive race.
IL - $1.2MM - Indicative of close, competitive race.
KY - $413K - At least they're still spending.
WV - $1.1MM - Indicative of close, competitive race.
WA - $632K - NRSC confidence in Rossi may be waning.
PA - $1.8MM - Republicans seeing a three alarm fire here.  Encouraging for Sestak fans.
CA - $2.8MM - Can't believe Republicans actually going after this.  Maybe some of these public polls are wrong.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

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by: spiderdem @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 17:19:30 PM UTC

Since this came so shortly after those Rove group buys....

I guess they not engaged in illegal coordination.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

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by: LookingOver @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 17:21:15 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

PA

I've never seen a candidate under the assault Sestak has been under.  Attack ads from every direction.  If he manages to win, it will be especially sweet.

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by: Paleo @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 17:24:19 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

two comments

(1) Most Washington voters have already voted, and since this is all-mail (and not "early vote) this includes many independents and swing voters. No real reason left to invest that heavily.

(2) California: NRSC clearly has money left, they've saturated everywhere else (not like NV can take many more ads for instance), why wouldn't they.

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by: LeftistAddiction @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 17:38:43 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Agree with LeftistAddiction, the reality is the NRSC can afford a Hail Mary...

...in California.  Why not go for total Senate control?

I'm sure Cornyn et al. realize the very real and huge difference that Senate control makes in the 112th Congress.  If Dems hold the Senate, than the GOP House is badly muted.  Boehner and Cantor and the rest of the GOP House are essentially isolated, while Senate Dems and Obama speak and work together against them.  But if the GOP takes the Senate, then Obama is the isolated one, with an entire branch of Government in Republican hands.  So who controls the Senate means EVERYTHING in driving the agenda the next 2 years, and also in setting up the politics of the 2012 election.  Obama will start his 2nd 2-year stretch much stronger than did Clinton if the GOP can't take the Senate.

I think both sides on the Hill realize this.  So the Republicans going for the Senate now, and spending big to do it, makes perfect sense.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 17:57:54 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

CA

Their tracking poll has consistently shown this to be a 1 point race. Plus, a joint NRSC/Fiorina internal from the Tarrance Group had it tied at 44.  

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by: GOPVOTER @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 18:41:40 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

You sound a little like Dems

on here cheering Conway. Internal polls showing a tight race, public polls showing a significant opposition lead.

Sure, anything is possible, but it's really not likely.

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by: itskevin @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 18:52:54 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not significant

Until this week, it was tied. Now it seems Boxer is up 4-5. Also, he was questioning if the NRSC was seeing different results than the public polls.  

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by: GOPVOTER @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 20:32:22 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

4-5 is the low end

of Fiorina's deficit, based on public polls over the past 3-5 days. My sense is that there's some wishful thinking involved in your analysis, just as there is for Dems in other races.

As for the NRSC spending, I bet they see Senate control as the big enchilada, and they want to make one last play for it with Cali, even if their chances are slim. The reward for them is just too big to back down. Plus, they're able to see that other big players (Rove, etc.) are stepping into other key states, so they can afford to burn some cash here.

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by: itskevin @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 20:43:12 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The Fiorina camp sent out a fundraising e-mail this morning...

...telling potential donors not to allow Boxer to build-up a lead. Methinks that probably indicates their internals are heading in the wrong direction.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

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by: andyroo312 @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 21:54:09 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

NY-Sen: Joe DioGuardi's new (final?) ad

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

Very weak, IMO.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

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by: andyroo312 @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 17:19:49 PM UTC

What else can you expect

from this guy.  

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

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by: ndrwmls10 @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 17:41:54 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

CA-Sen: Fiorina to be released from hospital today, on campaign trail tomorrow

http://www.marketwatch.com/sto...

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by: GOPVOTER @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 18:45:21 PM UTC

That's great news!

I'm glad she had a speedy recovery!  

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

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by: ndrwmls10 @ Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 21:21:20 PM UTC

[ Parent ]