| This is the second in what will be hopefully be a weekly segment, wherein I attempt to read the tea leaves of the independent expenditures made by the NRCC and the DCCC. The battle lines have become much clearer this week, with both parties significantly expanding their targeted seats. As a result, I have been able to come to more resolute opinions about what the behaviors of the party committees mean. My opinions are probably ham handed and wrong, but I feel more resolute about them. Without further ado:
Battlegrounds - Both parties engaged (36)
AL-02 - Dueling internals. Still think Bright is slightly ahead.
AR-01 - Confident that Causey has made a race of this. He may even be ahead now.
AZ-01 - Cook moved this to Lean R. Republican polls show modest Gosar leads.
AZ-05 - Dueling internals, all very close. Should be one of the closer races.
CA-11 - Very little reliable polling here. Harmer is a good candidate. Sleeper race.
CO-03 - Salazar destroyed Tipton just a few cycles ago. Good chance he will win again.
FL-02 - Boyd awfully quiet in spite of two Southerland internals with double digit leads.
GA-08 - Dueling internals with big margins. Somebody's way off. I think Marshall is ahead.
IL-14 - Unrebutted Republican polling suggests to me that Hultgren leads.
IL-17 - A good campaign should win this one for Hare. A lot of unmotivated Dems here.
IN-02 - Polls reassuring for Donnelly. Walorski does not seem like the best candidate.
IN-09 - Slightly dusty Republican poll showed a dead heat. Seems like a true toss-up.
KY-06 - Race clearly tightening but Chandler seems to be ahead.
MA-10 - Don't know how Perry survives the strip search scandal with the general electorate.
MD-01 - Kratovil hanging in there. Could be the surprise of election night.
MI-01 - Dems investing a lot of money here. They must see something worth pursuing.
MI-07 - Schauer seems to be coming back on Walberg.
MO-04 - Skelton is in for the fight of his life here.
MS-01 - Polling suggests that Nunnellee is modestly ahead.
NH-02 - Public polling shows a surprisingly close race here. Bass should win though.
NM-02 - Every poll of this race has been tight. Teague is a strong candidate.
NV-03 - Mason-Dixon has been showing modest Titus leads.
NY-20 - Murphy seems to have a clear but surmountable lead here.
NY-24 - Similar to NY-20. Clear but surmountable lead for Arcuri.
OH-16 - Boccieri seems to be coming back here. Trajectory like MI-07.
OH-18 - Gibbs must be clawing his way into it for Dems to invest here.
OR-05 - Republican poll shows a toss-up race. I think Schrader is slightly ahead.
PA-03 - Dahlkemper is in big trouble. Would greatly surprise me if she won.
PA-11 - Surprised the Dems are spending anything here. Kanjorski seems to be behind.
SC-05 - This is a very serious challenge for the veteran Spratt. He could definitely lose.
VA-02 - Nye seems to be a little behind.
VA-05 - Glad the Dems are playing here, but Periello is behind.
WA-03 - Interesting news that Herrera is barely lifting a finger. Heck seems to be closing a little.
WI-07 - Duffy seems to be ahead here.
WI-08 - Atrocious polling for Kagen. This seems uphill for him.
WV-01 - No polling for a while. Oliviero is the right kind of Dem to win here.
The Goners - Races where Dems are running behind and neither party committee is engaging (6)
AR-02 - After November 2, Elliott will not have to worry about whether to vote for Pelosi.
KS-03 - No polling, but Yoder must be in control.
LA-03 - Sangisetty will not have to sweat that Pelosi vote either.
NY-29 - Thanks Eric Massa. Love ya! Tickle, tickle...
OH-01 - Consistent, double digit leads for Chabot.
TN-06 - Carter will not have to sweat that Pelosi vote either.
The Triage List - Races where Dems are running behind, the NRCC is spending, and the DCCC is not (11)
CO-04 - Markey behind or tied in every poll.
FL-08 - Grayson may have done himself in with "Taliban Dan" ad.
FL-24 - Kosmas way down in several polls, statistically tied in her own.
IL-11 - Every poll shows a big lead for Kinzinger.
IN-08 - Big lead for Bucshon in internal poll.
ND-AL - Pomeroy holding his own on huge warchest, but seems to be slightly behind.
NH-01 - Shea-Porter down big in public polls, but Guinta is a poor candidate.
PA-07 - Could be a triage candidate, but the last public poll was close.
PA-08 - Murphy down double digits in last public poll. Seems like DCCC would spend here.
TN-08 - Republican polls show solid Fincher lead.
TX-17 - Edwards down in his own internals.
Ambitious Republican Targets - Races where Dems are running ahead, NRCC is spending, and DCCC is not (7)
MN-01 - Recent addition to NRCC target list. Must be tightening.
NC-07 - This one is definitely tightening, but DCCC has not stepped in yet.
NJ-03 - Dems may be milking Adler cash advantage before getting in.
NM-01 - Heinrich seems to be ahead, but NRCC has recently engaged.
OH-06 - Like MN-01, another recent addition to the target list. Probably tightening.
PA-10 - Carney seems to be slightly ahead against damaged Marino.
SD-AL - Same shit, different district.
VA-09 - Boucher seems relatively safe, but NRCC keeps getting after him.
Emerging Democratic Firewall - Races where Dems are running ahead, DCCC is spending, and NRCC is not (7)
GA-02 - Self-inflicted wounds and poor fundraising force DCCC to spend here.
IA-03 - Zaun seems to be damaged, but Dems clearly don't feel out of the woods.
NC-08 - Kissell is an awful fundraiser, but I suspect he is ahead.
OH-13 - May be able to stop worrying about this one given Ganley's S&M scandal.
PA-12 - NRCC understandably reluctant to invest in Tim Burns again.
TX-23 - Surprised NRCC has not made a run at this. Rodriguez may be ahead.
VA-11 - Connolly did not beat Fimian THAT overwhelmingly in 2008.
Confident Republicans - Races where Dems are running behind, DCCC is spending, and NRCC is not (2)
NY-23 - Doheny poll showed a big lead, but I would expect the NRCC to spend due to Owens $$$ advantage.
OH-15 - Stivers probably does not need the help.
No News is Good News - Pundit-declared, endangered Dem seats where neither party committee has made I.E.'s (16)
AZ-08 - NRCC has been pretty ambitious but has not gone after Giffords.
CA-47 - Lack of NRCC investment leads me to believe Sanchez is ahead.
CO-07 - No attention for Perlmutter from the NRCC.
CT-04 - Given the lack of NRCC investment, I suspect Himes is up more than 2.
CT-05 - I believe Murphy's internal, not that weird Merriman poll.
FL-22 - Huge candidate money on both sides. Klein is endangered.
IA-02 - No help for Miller-Meeks yet from the NRCC.
ID-01 - Consistent double digit leads for Minnick.
KY-03 - Yarmuth seems to be comfortably ahead.
MI-09 - No NRCC investment in spite of Rossman Group poll showing Peters trailing.
NY-01 - No polling here for a while, but lack of NRCC investment is comforting.
NY-13 - McMahon and Grimm internals show comfortable McMahon leads.
NY-19 - Neither party is spending, yet two public polls show a tight race. Strange.
PA-04 - Dusty DCCC poll showed Altmire very comfortably ahead.
TN-04 - Davis up double digits in his internal. Lack of NRCC involvement comforting.
WA-02 - No NRCC help for Koster so far. Larsen seems to be ahead.
The Endangered Species - Dems on Offense (5)
DE-AL - No investment by either party. Carney seems to be well ahead here.
FL-25 - Refreshing that DCCC is spending here. Rivera is a loose cannon.
HI-01 - DCCC is spending here. NRCC will surreptitiously fund the state party if anything.
IL-10 - Only Dem target where both parties have engaged. Seals seems to be ahead.
LA-02 - No investment by either party. Cao down 11 in DCCC internal taken before Obama ad. |
