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SSP Daily Digest: 10/5 (Afternoon Edition)

by: Crisitunity

Tue Oct 05, 2010 at 3:37 PM EDT


AK-Sen: It's never a dull moment with Joe Miller in the race. Hot on the heels of the news that he believes that federal unemployment insurance is unconstitutional, today comes the news that his wife went on unemployment after leaving a job in 2004, and that Miller did not disown his wife for betraying the Founding Fathers. But wait, it just gets more interesting: the job Miller's wife left was working for... Miller himself. He hired his wife as a part-time clerk when he was working for several years as a magistrate judge for the federal district court (y'know, for the federal government he just hates so much). Local gadfly (and Lisa Murkowski ally) Andrew Halcro is, in fact, suggesting that Miller was forced to fire his wife because the blatant nepotism may have been a violation of court policies. (Of course, Miller's response was that Murkowski's not one to talk about nepotism.)

And on top of that, now it's come out that Miller is a full-on Seventeenther. In other words, part of the new crop of right-wingers who want you to vote for him so he can take away your rights to vote for him in the future.

HI-Sen: Term-limited GOP Gov. Linda Lingle is saying she'll "take a look" at a Senate bid in 2012. That seat's current occupant, Dan Akaka, is 86 years old, so it's not clear whether he'll run for another term or not. Lingle is probably the only Republican on the bench in Hawaii with enough juice to make a Senate race, especially an open seat one, competitive.

IL-Sen, IL-Gov: Mark Kirk is out with an internal poll (from Fulcrum), giving him a much larger lead than, well, anyone else, considering that most pollsters have seen this within a point or two either way. His poll says he leads Alexi Giannoulias 42-33, with 2 for the Green Party's LeAlan Jones. (The same poll also shows Bill Brady leading Pat Quinn 39-27 in the Governor's race.) Sitting on a big cash advantage, Kirk has reserved most of his entire kitty ($5.2 million) on ad buys for the remaining month.

WI-Sen: Russ Feingold seems determined to follow Nancy Boyda down the path of integrity/obscurity. He's telling the DSCC (who haven't advertised yet on his behalf) to back off and let him fight the election himself. Says Feingold: "I consider it to be outside help of a kind that is uncontrolled and tends to believe in a philosophy of slash-and-burn politics. That's frankly not who I am. I don't want to win that way."

NH-Gov: Univ. of New Hampshire (9/23-29, likely voters, July in parentheses):

John Lynch (D-inc): 51 (54)
John Stephen (R): 34 (29)
(MoE: ±4.3%)

Considering that UNH's sample had Paul Hodes down by 15 and Carol Shea-Porter losing too, it's pleasantly surprising to see John Lynch hanging in there with little trouble (in contrast to several other recent polls, such as UNH's in-state rival for weird results, ARG).

WV-Gov: I guess the 2010 election is over already? Because the conversation today already seems to be changing to 2012. Republican state Sen. Clark Barnes (whom you might remember for briefly getting in and then getting out of the field in WV-01 last year) says he'll run for governor two years from now.

NY-20: Finding himself on the very wrong end of both a Siena poll and a Scott Murphy internal, Chris Gibson offers up a POS internal of his own, taken 9/27-28, showing that he's still within striking distance. He says he trails Murphy 42-38.

VA-05: Here's one more Dem poll from the 5th that shows Tom Perriello is narrowly trailing, but not officially dead yet. Rob Hurt leads Perriello 44-43 in a poll sponsored by the League of Conservation Voters and the SEIU (no word on who the pollster is, though). (UPDATE: The pollster is David Dougherty, and the memo is here. The sample was taken 9/20-23 with a 4.4% MoE.)

American Crossroads: Remember back when we all laughed at American Crossroads for not raising any money, apparently because they were waiting for the million-dollar checks from their half-a-dozen billionaire donors to clear? Ha ha, boy, those were simpler times. Anyway, Democracy 21 and the Campaign Legal Center are going to the IRS to ask for an investigation of Crossroads GPS, one tentacle of the group that's organized as a non-profit "social welfare organization" or 501(c)(4). The larger Crossroads is a PAC, but GPS itself isn't supposed to participate in campaigns. Rather than take it up with the FEC, which has fallen into chaotic uselessness because of empty seats on the commission, they're going straight to the IRS, alleging tax law violations instead.

Fundraising:
MO-Sen: Roy Blunt raised $2 million in 3Q, no CoH given
PA-07: Pat Meehan raised $725K, giving him $1.5 million CoH

SSP TV:
AK-Sen: Two different ads, one a coordinated spot between the Joe Miller camp and the NRSC that's a bio spot for Miller, the other a Tea Party Express one-minute extravaganza that calls Lisa Murkowski a liar, a fraud, and various other things
IN-Sen: Here's a link to that Brad Ellsworth ad we mentioned yesterday, where he literally calls Dan Coats a sellout over that all-covers album he released outsourcing
KY-Sen: The DSCC rolls out an ad hitting Rand Paul on his proposed $2,000 Medicare deductible, while Paul's newest ad returns to the Jack Conway=Obama theme
MO-Sen: Robin Carnahan goes back to the theme of Roy Blunt's cozy DC insider relationships
NY-Sen-B: Joe DioGuardi's first ad is an intro spot, as well as bemoaning the dwindling American Dream
WA-Sen: The DSCC revisits Dino Rossi's days as a state Senator, including support for cutting unemployment benefits and the minimum wage
WI-Sen: Russ Feingold takes the GOP to task for prematurely celebrating short of the end zone
WV-Sen: John Raese follows the NRSC's lead with his own ad doing the Joe Manchin=Obama thing
FL-Gov: The DGA's out with a Florida ad with various law enforcement officials bashing Rick Scott's Medicare fraud
NH-Gov: Here's the ad of the day: John Lynch leaps out of the gate and punches John Stephen in the nose over scandals at New Hampshire's HHS Dept.
OH-Gov: Ted Strickland, bedecked in camo, reminds the state's hunters who got the NRA's backing
PA-Gov: Well, at least Tom Corbett isn't saying Dan Onorato = Obama, but he is saying Onorato = Ed Rendell
RI-Gov: The DGA hits Lincoln Chafee from the right? Their new ad says that vulnerable Rhode Islanders can't afford all the new taxes Chafee wants
FL-24: Suzanne Kosmas hits Sandy Adams over the Paul Ryan roadmap
PA-04: Oh, good... more kids complaining about how their allowance isn't big enough to cover all the debt they're going to have to pay off, courtesy of Keith Rothfus

Rasmussen:
AZ-Sen: Rodney Glassman (D) 33%, John McCain (R-inc) 54%
CA-Sen: Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 49%, Carly Fiorina (R) 45%
CO-Gov: John Hickenlooper (D) 43%, Dan Maes (R) 16%, Tom Tancredo (C) 35%
CO-Sen: Michael Bennet (D-inc) 45%, Ken Buck (R) 50%

Rasmussen (appearing as Fox/Pulse):
CT-Gov: Dan Malloy (D) 47%, Tom Foley (R) 41%
CT-Sen: Richard Blumenthal (D) 52%, Linda McMahon (R) 42%
MO-Sen: Robin Carnahan (D) 42%, Roy Blunt (R) 50%
NV-Sen: Harry Reid (D-inc) 46%, Sharron Angle (R) 49%
OH-Gov: Ted Strickland (D-inc) 43%, John Kasich (R) 49%
OH-Sen: Lee Fisher (D) 37%, Rob Portman (R) 53%
WV-Sen: Joe Manchin (D) 43%, John Raese (R) 48%

Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 10/5 (Afternoon Edition)
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I think Denny Heck will pull ahead and win.
Herrera is doing little while Heck is all over the place.

Also, aren't you supposed to wear orange when you go hunting to avoid being accidentally shot?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


NY-20
Yet another example of BS GOP internal polling.

Rasmussen CT-Gov, CO-Gov - we know Malloy and Hickenlooper are up at least ten according to PPP so I think it is safe to say most of the others are too favorable to the Republicans.


The NFL complained about Russ' ad and
Russ says he will edit it. http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


I like that screen cap of that article
That shows Russ at the top Lobbyist enemy (what source is that from anyway?) also shows that Mitch McConnel is the Lobbyist's best friend, and that Scott Brown is the most disappointing.

It's a good ad though, and it sucks that they have to edit it.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)


[ Parent ]
It doesn't make sense
It shows Brown as "Surprising standout" and in the next line, "biggest disappointment?  

[ Parent ]
It was voted on by congessional aides
It was published in the Washingtonian:
http://www.washingtonian.com/a...

According to them, it was Republican aides that put Brown over the top as "biggest disappointment." Also, as one commenter on that site wrote, Rosa DeLauro is the number one fashion victim?! She's the best dressed on the Hill...

Radical or something, WA-07


[ Parent ]
IT lost all credibility
When it tied Maria Cantwell with Gillibrand for hottest and put Lisa Murkowski and Kay Hagan as 2nd and 3rd highest without putting Klobuchar in there.  

[ Parent ]
Klobuchar?
Ok, she's great, but, really?  I think you need to see her in person, she's a pretty average, squat, little, Minnesota thing.  My roommate just described her as looking homey.  Not bad, but she, is not, hot.  (Office, great episode.)

[ Parent ]
She is better
Than Lisa Murkowski!  

[ Parent ]
Why
the hell are we talking about this again? We all know gorgeous women (except for Kirsten Gillibrand) stay far far far away from politics. They have better things to do....like watching Jersey Shore.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
The
WaPo survey of congressional aides mentioned it. I swear it wasn't me!

[ Parent ]
nancy kassebaum
I met Sen. Nancy Kassebaum once - I'd have jumped her. :)  To be honest, I don't see anything wrong about saying if you find candidates attractive or not - and see no reason why women (or for that matter, gay guys) can't and don't talk about hot male candidates.  I mean, to some extent they do, with all that shirtless Obama-mania and naked Scott Brown.  It just depends on how you talk about them - I find a smart woman hot and if she's a looker to boot, that's a bonus.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

[ Parent ]
Brown better than boxer?
HUH?  Did houskeeper gate really change the dynamics of the gov race that much?  DAYUM.  Do we have some crosstabs on that?

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
I always said
They would both win by similar margin. Ras and SurveyUSA both had Brown doing a point better.

[ Parent ]
Whitman's
former nanny backs up the housekeeper on her story. This article in the Chronicle is a good read and is extremely disturbing, especially since according to the nanny, she threatened to report Whitman to the IRS because she wouldn't give her an W-2 form.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/...

19, Male, Independent, CA-12


[ Parent ]
Showing that Meg Whitman
knew that she had employed an undocumented individual.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
Perriello
Like indicated above I have no clue who actually did the Perriello-Hurt poll but to the extent that this is accurate it is encouraging news. The SUSA polls showing him down 25 points are not accurate by any means I suspect. He has had no scandals that would destroy his support. If somehow he wins this race it is clear that Nancy Pelosi will be the Speaker. The NRCC is dumping tons of money into this race but due to Perriello's fund raising ability the DCCC hasn't needed to drop a dime on his behalf as he is adequately funded. The districts airwaves are relatively affordable as well.

His perceived steadfast convictions and willingness to speak with anyone including Tea Party organizations can propel him to a close win. That said, this district is very rural and is mostly not used to electing Democrats. To win, Perriello has to run up his considerable margins in Charlottesville City/Albermarle County and needs African-American support as they are about 25% of the districts population. I would be curious to see the cross tabs of that poll but I see this as about a 5% Hurt lead. Full disclosure about my post is that I live in VA-08 but have canvassed a few weekends in C'vlle for him.  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  


Perriello
An incumbent at 43 and a point behind his challenger is not good news.  His path to victory is almost non existent particularly when the district is uphill for the Democrats to start off with.  He will easily get 43 and maybe 45 or 46, but I see this district as a goner despite Perriello's great voting record.  I have the same situation here in my district where Suzanne Kosmas has a 45 to 43 lead in her own internal.  She is in a little better shape but has an almost impossible task and Adams' internals have Kosmas down 15. Perriello and Kosmas had great records but I doubt either will survive.  Grayson is screwed too but he did it to himself.

[ Parent ]
I guarentee you Adams isn't up 15
But both are up against it certainly. Still, there will be people like this that will shock everybody and pull it out. Others thought safe will lose.

[ Parent ]
Yeah Kosmas and Perriello
Are in the same situation as Mark Kirk, if you're at 45 or below in your own internal polling, that's not anything to get geeked up about.  

My move of FL-24 to lean republican today was partly based on that internal that pegged Kosmas at 45.  (The other part of it is the whole flap over Obama and NASA, which is a big local issue there)

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13


[ Parent ]
Agree kinda
Kosmas and Periello are in trouble but are not in the same situation as Kirk.  Kirk is not the incumbent and running against a statewide elected official in a blue state.  He is no favorite and this is a jump ball.  The strong blue lean may doom him but all public polling I have seen has Giannoulias tied or slightly behind and he is a statewide official in a blue state running against a guy representing 1/19th of the state.  Plus Kirk is sitting on a shit ton of money.  

[ Parent ]
True
I doubt Adams is up 15 either but Kosmas showing herself at 45 and ahead 2 does little to make me celebrate.  It is likely both polls are weighted toward their own candidate.  Split the difference and Adams is 7 or so points ahead of a freshman Democratic incumbent in a district that leans GOP in a shall we say less than stellar environment for our side.  This will be no landslide but Suzanne is in deep deep trouble.  I am sure one or two DOA congressman get reelected and a couple safe ones get knocked off.  But everyone Dem incumbent touting a poll showing them at 43 or 45 and statistically tied with their opponent really need to polish up their resumes.

[ Parent ]
VA-05
It is an R+6 district which is obviously a very tough hill to climb normally but especially more difficult in this climate. His path is also reliant upon how many votes the 3rd party tea party protest candidate steals from Hurt. If he can steal more than about 5% of the vote Perriello's chances significantly increase. Being down 1% and at 43% is much better than being down 25% and your opponent's biggest question not whether they will break 50 but whether they will break 60. That said I would be curious to see the cross-tabs and see where the numbers are coming from and how much support Clarke is pulling. This race is certainly Hurt's to lose.  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

[ Parent ]
Jeffrey Clark is a non-factor, Perriello has to do this on his own......
He has to cobble together persuasion of enough swing voters and turnout of enough base voters to pull off the shocking upset, or he will, as expected (including by me at this stage), go down to defeat.

Clark is not going to help.  Republicans are unified behind Hurt, they know a vote for Clark is a vote for Perriello.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Hurt
I was impressed with the way that Hurt was able to consolidate the base following his primary win. Clark will likely steal about 1-2% of the vote which is unlikely to tip the scale. It is his race to win and with how cautious he has been in campaigning it is unlikely that he is going to make any type of major gaffe that significantly changes the dynamics of the race.  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

[ Parent ]
Feingold
I'm all for sacrificing principle in favor of the win, but if there's anyone that can pull off the "say no to outside help" thing, it's Russ Feingold. From the polls I don't think he'll manage to pull it off... but I can imagine it being too close to call on Election Day. He knows his state.

On that note, I think the "dancing in the endzone" ad will play well with the fanatical Packers fans. A little extra controversy with the NFL's complaint probably won't hurt either, and will just get the ad more attention.


Good ad
I think that it is a pretty good ad. Packer fans hate the Vikings more than any team in large part because of Favre. Reminding them of their dislike for the Vikings and associating it with Johnson and his cronies to the extent possible is a pretty good idea. It will get people talking about it and generate "free publicity" in a positive way that won't be like Alan Grayson's "free publicity" in a very negative way.  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

[ Parent ]
Epic win if
Feingold manages to goad Johnson into criticizing the socialist nature of the Packers.

[ Parent ]
Another Epic Win
Would be if Brett Favre were to endorse Johnson.  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

[ Parent ]
I thought Favre was a Dem?
Then again, he's from Mississippi, so he'd most likely be a Dixiecrat who's well to the right of Feingold. But yes, Feingold, Kagen, and Lassa are probably praying that Favre endorses one of their opponents!

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
You are right...
About Favre being a Dem, I didn't realize that. Looking at opensecrets.org he and his wife have recently donated to Gene Taylor. While Gene is certainly no flaming liberal they haven't donated to Wicker or Cochran. Maybe they all should ask Favre to cut a video endorsing their opponents?

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

[ Parent ]
That got me thinking
What if there was someone so unpopular in a for whatever reason that was generally not tied to any parties politics endorsed someones opponent because they new it would hurt the person they were endorsing, maybe like the owner of the New York Yankees endorsing Scott Brown in 2012.  

If you really dig deep, you'd know that George Steinbrenner actually has donated some money to the DNC in the past, but he knows that people in MA hate him and his team so much, it would help Scott Brown's opponent.

I think this could ultimately backfire somehow though.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)


[ Parent ]
Steinbrenner was also tied to Dick Nixon
His wikipedia entry jives with what I remember

The "convicted" part of Billy Martin's famous 1978 "liar and convicted" comment referred to Steinbrenner's connection to Richard Nixon; in 1974 Steinbrenner pleaded guilty to making illegal contributions to Nixon's re-election campaign, and to a felony charge of obstruction of justice. He was personally fined $15,000 and his company was assessed an additional $20,000. On November 27 of that year, MLB Commissioner Bowie Kuhn suspended him for two years, but later reduced it to fifteen months. Ronald Reagan pardoned Steinbrenner in January 1989, one of the final acts of his presidency.


[ Parent ]
Kirk
42% in your own internal poll is weak.  That's almost as bad as Alan Grayson showing 40% in one of his a while back ago.  

I'm becoming more confident that Illinois's blue lean is going to come through in the end for Giannoulias, (and Quinn.)

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13


Well,
its not like Alexi is providing any poll data showing him any higher.  

Both Alexi and Kirk should be happy that there is no "none of the above" choice in Illinois.  


[ Parent ]
There is some speculation there could be an Obama-Clinton ticket in 2012
http://politicalticker.blogs.c...

What would the impact of this be down ticket?  I would suspect it could help people like Jon Tester (democrat in a rural state), but apart from that, I think it would have little impact.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)


Don't see why this would help Tester. And this wouldn't accomplish anything otherwise anyway......
What would be the purpose of this?  The blurb I saw on Political Wire said this is about ginning up "depressed" Democratic turnout.

They're projecting depressed Democratic turnout 2 years away?

I don't think so.

This is a big joke.  It's going to be Obama-Biden '12 unless Biden has any kind of health problem.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Little or none
2012 will be a referendum on Obama and will solely rest on him and to some degree the electabilty of his opponent.  Whether it is Biden or Clinton running with him matters little.  Obama is not likely to be a plus for Tester since Montana usually goes GOP in pres elections.  I think someone like Webb benefits with Virginia having a sizable Afican American and student populations that are likely to turn out for him.  

[ Parent ]
Some outlets were pinning Montana as a tossup a few weeks out in 2008
And the thought behind Obama-Clinton helping Tester is that Clinton has a lot of Rural appeal for some reason (hello, She was a senator from NEW YORK!).

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
Doubt it
Some rancher in MT isn't going to give Obama a second look because Hillary is on the ticket rather then Joe.  Montana is not a solid Republican state as many people think but it is more Libertarian than Progressive.  I think a lot of folks were fed up with Bush but I don't see them going for Obama in 2012. Tester's best hope is that he gets a weak opponent and anger toward incumbent Democratic officeholders subsides as well as the economy improving.  

[ Parent ]
I can't see it...
A VP with Presidential aspirations is a PITA to deal with.  OTOH Bill Clinton is campaigning like a mad man for a reason.  

I think 70 yrs old is likely seen as too old by voters today.  I could see Hillary the VP choice of the Dem candidate in 2016.  

I think this is mostly inside the beltway talk designed to create a story.  


[ Parent ]
She'll wont quit be 70 in 2016.
I think as long as she remains healthy she could have a viable opportunity to run for the presidential nomination again. Since becoming Secretary of State she has greatly repaired her image. I don't know if she would want to run another campaign though, who knows.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
Not only has she repaired her image,
but I think she's improved it. Now she's got significant foreign policy experience, and even Republicans actually approve of her. Plus, she's repaired any damage done to her reputation in the AA community, simply by serving in the Obama administration.

[ Parent ]
Your right! She has become the most
popular member of the Obama administration and one of the most popular Democrats.  

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
Clinton isn't campaigning and nobody is attacking her
I don't believe it's a good idea to look at her numbers now and assume that's what they would be during a campaign. SoS is usually a relatively non-partisan position, it's easy to be popular when no one is attacking you.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
That's not what we are trying to
say. She is doing well now, that could very well change. But it's exactly that type of position that she is in now that has helped her dramatically improve her numbers. That is a plus in most people's book.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
Don't mistake Clinton's performance in Democratic primaries for strength in a general election
Plus, that "rural appeal" (such as it existed) really didn't apply much to western states, Clinton was not liked in Montana, either by base Democrats or by the more libertarian Independents (which are critical in Montana).

I don't see any real plus to adding Clinton to the ticket, the flaws she had in 2008 still exist today.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
Yeah...
I think she lost MT pretty dramatically in the primary.

[ Parent ]
The GOP didn't even put anyone against Pryor in 2008
Why didn't they put someone against a Freshman?  I doubt he would be in trouble though, and he isn't even up till 2014 isn't he?

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
Arkansans seemed incredibly apathetic towards the 2008 election
probably because each party's favorite son/daughter candidate lost in the primaries. Raw turnout was barely above the 2004 numbers, and neither party fielded a challenger to any of the Congressional incumbents.

[ Parent ]
I've been predicting this
Biden always wanted to be secretary of state, and it's better for him than wandering aimlessly through Dick Cheney's bunker.  A Clinton VP would give an enthusiasm boost to the ticket.

[ Parent ]
Let me embed the FL-Gov ad.

This really gets to the brass tacks.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


I'm so happy
Sink is going after him!

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
I think it's the DGA
not Sink's campaign that's attacking him, unless you know something I don't. also, what's taking her so long to attack, there's so much there, he's like a pinata for god's sake!

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
I thought if her
picture appeared at the bottom it was an ad from her campaign?

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
Did the DGA give the money to the Florida Democratic Party
because they are the group that made the ad.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
You didn't post the Rasmussen poll of WY-AL
I look forward to the DE-AL numbers next time around...

Only 78k watched CT-Sen debate last night
Never a good idea to put a debate up against Monday Night Football, particularly when a local team (the Patriots) are playing.  

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

FL-25: New ad from Joe Garcia.
This one uses news footage of the hit-and-run antic that Rivera pulled off.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


Good ad
One of the few chances for a Democratic pickup. This would have been a slam dunk two years ago...but with Rubio running up huge margins in this district Garcia will need a lot of ticket splitters

[ Parent ]
NV-Sen: Reid ad strikes back against Angle's immigration ads.
Definitely one of his better ads as it has a new take on her infamous comment on job creation.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


Released same day as new Angle ad repeating
statements on Reid's record that have been fact-checked and found false.
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo...

Gotta help out those white construction workers and college students (watch the ad and you'll see what I mean).

Which ad do you think is better?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Her ads are getting too vitriolic.
It might not work, but that's just me.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
You're not the only one...
Putting aside my own partisan/ideological feelings, I agree that she's just getting too vitriolic with her immigration ads. Doug Damore, a UNLV poli sci professor, recently told one of the local papers that "any day that isn't being spent talking about the economy is another day Sharron Angle loses". And while I see she's trying to tie immigration to the economy, I think this last ad just goes too far with the xenophobia to make any good economic argument.

And all in all, her ad strategy just sucks. For one, it looks like she's mostly buying on the networks. And since network news audiences tend to skew older and whiter, much of what she's doing is just preaching to her choir. I don't watch the local networks much, so when I have a cable channel on all I see are Harry Reid ads, Patriot Majority ads (pro-Harry), Dina Titus ads, EMILY's List ads (pro-Dina), and Rory Reid ads. The Dems are DOMINATING cable, and IMHO their microtargeting is the smartest way to do TV these days.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
WV Gov
Clark Barnes also said he would run for senate this year, but he backed out b/c of Raese's money.  

NV-03: New attack ad is better than lathe last one attacking Joe Heck.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


Just caught it online...
And I'll keep an eye for it on TV tonight. As I said upthread, Dina's campaign has been VERY SMART in microtargeting their ads on cable in addition to the usual network buys. IMHO this is the smart way to go. The only times I ever see Joe Heck ads are when I occasionally put on one of the local stations. And as with Angle, he's probably not reaching as many movable voters as Dina is.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
Donnelly ahead 48-39 in IN-2
And the NRCC keeps spending money there
They should continue doing so.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
Not a bad idea for them if they got the money......
A 9-point spread and under 50 isn't a bad investment from their point of view.  TV can be cheap there.

But I agree I'd rather they spend in this district than other seats where we're more vulnerable.

The thing is, I doubt they're choosing so unwisely.  They probably have the money to do it, given how much outside groups are pouring into attack ads to help them in some places.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Its not clear . . .
whether this is a poll of registered or likely voters.  If its a RV poll, the race is probably within four or five points.  Under such circumstances, it would be stupid for the GOP not to invest in this race.  

[ Parent ]
I think it's likely voters, piecing together various bits of info......
The linked article said the poll was actually various races around the state.  I then found that the IN-02 pollster, EPIC-MRA, Michigan-based by the way, had the IN-Sen result that showed Coats up 51-33 this week, and that was done with 500 likely voters in the past week.  So I'm piecing together they used likely voters for whatever variety of Indiana polls they just did for one or more TV stations or other news orgs.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
It's LV. nm
nm

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
DCCC Cancellations
I know Jim Geraghty probably isn't a very popular person to cite around here, but it's worth noting that he says a "reliable source" informed him that the DCCC has canceled a week of ad buys on behalf of Chet Edwards, Baron Hill, and Trent Van Haaften.

If the info is accurate, I'm not particularly surprised about TX-17 or IN-08, but my perception had been that Hill was only narrowly ahead in IN-09. The only polls I can find are GOP partisan polls that show Young trailing. Is it possible that Hill is actually doing so well the DCCC decided he doesn't need the assistance?

20, GOP, NH-02


That is what
it seems like. Todd Young didn't really gain much traction.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
There have been tea leaves that Hill was down and perhaps out, but...
...like most House races, a few tea leaves aren't reliable, we're just left guessing.

Hill's race is a tossup by Cook and tossup/tilt R by Rothenberg, so that tells you no one is telling them Hill is in good shape when they ask.

Hill is one guy whose defeat would be sad but not surprising given his electoral history (he's lost before as an incumbent) the district and the state and the year.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Todd Young has not had much traction.
Also OFA is working overtime to turn out as many Dems as possible. Things have change greatly here since 2004. The GOP candidate before was slightly more moderate. Todd Young wants to privatize social security. That isn't going over well with older voters in the district and he already has the Bloomington vote, which is a large and important part of the district. I'd say he is pretty safe just based on what I've seen.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
I
would not be surprised to see Hill lose. I have said it most all of the cycle. The moment Young won the primary I knew we would face a tough race. Hill is endangered. Them pulling out is not new news, I think we have heard of this a while ago. I'm not sure what to think of it. Honestly my hunch is they are plain and simply strapped for cash and can't spend here. It doesn't mean Hill is necessarily trailing or DOA. Or it very well may for all I know. Again until I see polling I do not know. Like you said we are just reading tea leaves. The Republicans have spent A LOT here, but Hill has more CoH. Joe Arnold, local politico, mentioned today that even with Young's money and what national parities are spending on him Hill has about the same to spend. I think he will play it late and flood the airwaves over the next few weeks. So they may just let him fend for himself and spend money on candidates with less money. Hill has money to be competitive while others do not. Or yes he could be DOA. I would not write him off yet until polling shows him a goner. Hill is always facing tough elections. You either love him or hate him. I remember reading that in 1998 just weeks before the election he trailed by ten points and everyone writ him off yet he prevailed. This is not 1998 but still you can never underestimate Hill. Again I would not even be slightly surprised to see Hill lose but I still think Hill has the edge.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Another
Tea leaf worth reading. Debates. Hill wanted no debates, he tried to get out of them. Of course he did not want to get called a debate dodger so he agreed to two of them. I do not even think the two are televised. Are they Bob or whoever? I know they are not airing in the Louisville market anyway (I heard on the local news last night). Louisville is by far the biggest media market in the district. Young wanted something like 7 or 8, mostly televised. Hill is not a bad debater by any means. He has a short fuse but he can control it, I think he learned his lesson. Young is not bad but he is nothing special from what I have transpired. It seems to me that if Hill was trailing or in a rough time he would want all the debates he could get. As you know if someone is DOA they of course want more debates. Also if Young was the frontrunner or guaranteed a win why would he bag for more debates? Just saying it is worth thinking that over.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
To me the DCCC action . . .
suggests that Edwards and Van Haaften are doomed and that (given all the other close House races) it no longer makes sense to make a big investment on behalf of Hill.  Even the fact that Hill is in a marginal district, the DCCC withdrawal does not seem to auger good news for the Dems.    

[ Parent ]
Not sure what to make of this
Looks like I might end up with a generous serving of egg on my face after my post yesterday suggesting Hill was actually gaining ground.

I won't comment on TX-17, which isn't really my area of knowledge, but I'm not surprised with IN-08. That's a difficult district to win for us under decent circumstances, and I'm only surprised that the DCCC waited so long to bail. I don't honestly think Van Haaften has anything close to a decent chance unless Ellsworth manages to close in on Coats in the Senate race.

As for Hill... I stand by my characterization of the race yesterday. If Young's putting Hill away, I've seen precisely nothing to suggest how he's doing that. Maybe the local environment (Pres. Obama is NOT popular here) is just that toxic. I don't know.

I'd like to think that hoosierdem's on to something and that the national guys have decided Hill's got enough resources to fight his battle on his own. And he also made a good point about the DCCC going back and forth on expenditures here before; maybe this is a replay of that. I'm really not sure, but I can say I'm a hell of a lot less confident than I was yesterday.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09


[ Parent ]
Wow. weird Ben Quayle ad

They look like robots


They are robots
Someone call John Conner.  That ad is horrible.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
Quayle family couldn't afford orthodonture?
Ben Quayle's mouth is full of sharp pointed teeth that would look good on a shark, but not so good in a candidate close-up.

[ Parent ]
MN-06


28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

Ok, that ad is hysterical. I don't
know if it will move any votes in the very conservative 6th district, but it was funny.

[ Parent ]
Either it's for shock value to get attention, or it's web-only......
It's 30 seconds, so it could be a real TV buy.

But the bleeped out "shit" is ballsy for a campaign ad.  It will draw a mix of laughs and head-nodding on one side, and a mix of genuine outrage and faux outrage on the other side.

The ad's argument is 100% correct.  But taking the risk of offending the audience makes it look like a Hail Mary.  Maybe Clark is way down and not getting over the hump in a tough year, and she HAS to push the boundaries to try to make something happen.  In that regard this isn't really a Hail Mary, it's more like a reverse.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Its web
For now anyway. I think the fact it is :30 means it may become a TV ad, but they are testing reaction to it right now. Notice there is no "I'm Taryl Clark and I approve this message"  

[ Parent ]
Good catch on missing disclaimer, yes that's definitive. I think they have to...
...change the bleeped "shit" to "anything" for TV, if they put it on TV.

If the SUSA polls in this race are accurate, it's very possible Clark could have pulled this off in 2008 instead of now.  Too bad, the timing or candidate always sucks.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
we should have never gone with Patty Wetterling in 06
She had the name recognition and the fundraising prowess, but if you asked the locals nobody cared much for her.  It was a very Ashwin Madia like problem that a simple primary could have solved.

[ Parent ]
my one concern would be
Clark needs to get the elderly, old school DFLers to vote for her and having a bleeped out swear word will turn off many of these voters I'd think.  Particularly Clark's hometown of St Cloud which is an aging city; I can just imagine my grandma seeing that ad and deciding to skip the race when I could have easily gotten her to vote for Clark.

Its an interesting district as a bleeped out "shit" would probably do well in the suburbs though.  I'm fairly certain St Cloud is in the Twin City media market so you couldn't just split the difference that easily.


[ Parent ]
PA Senate 3rd Quarter Fundraising
   Sestak raises $3.2 million, Toomey raises $3.8 million.  I cannot believe how much money is being thrown at my home state right now.  Apparently $6 million has been spent by outside groups against Sestak, more than against any other candidate in the country.

  Obama needs to threaten to pack the Supreme Court.  If Toomey wins a close race, I think Citizens United won it for him.

24, Male, GA-05


Like how?
All the conservatives who wanted to retire/or died off did so under Bush so he could replace them all with spring chickens (okay Scalia isn't that young). And court packing didn't go well for FDR if I recall.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Actually...
   It was a spectacular victory for FDR.  The "switch in time that saved nine" brought the Supreme Court to his side.  Anyway, I am hardly being serious.  Obama would never do anything that ballsy.

24, Male, GA-05

[ Parent ]
What's The Opposite of a Pyrrhic Victory?
FDR's personal popularity did suffer quite a bit for the court-packing effort, and there were some negative electoral consequences.

But the judicial war on the New Deal pretty much ended right then and there.

Prior to that, the Supreme Court had from essentially the beginning been the most consistent friend of the rich, the powerful, and the privileged - so, what we're seeing now with the Roberts court isn't exactly an aberration, historically speaking.  


36, M, Democrat, MD-03


[ Parent ]
Tommy Tutone Sighting

Apparently, Jack Conway is Jenny.......

Also, this ad is so sleazy it's ridiculous. I also should mention that Paul said he'd start getting negative on Fox Sunday if the polls get close... tea leaf?

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan


Yes I think so nm
nm

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
y'know, it does feel a tad sleazy
Also, stupid move on Rand, putting his name at the end instead of the beginning. Go, eh, sleazy, Rand you're doing this, ew.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
Lame.
     Not even a good impersonation - sounds more like Fred Thompson.  John Cranley pretty much ran an identically themed ad against Steve Chabot in 2006.  It didn't work for him.  

   

24, Male, GA-05


[ Parent ]
CA-Attorney General: LA Times endorses Cooley
http://www.latimes.com/news/op...

This is after their endorsements of Boxer and Brown. I'm not sure who should get my support in this race ... I'm not that fond of Harris, but definitely do not want to see Cooley running for something more important in the future.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26


Vote Democrat.
    I'm about to be saddled with Santorum-loving Governor Corbett thanks to Democrats' decision in 2002 to split their tickets for attorney general.  Some Republicans may seem inoffensive during the election season, but once they are in office they tow the party line as always.  

24, Male, GA-05

[ Parent ]
Yes.
That is my main concern. Did Tom Corbett pass himself up as a moderate in 2002?

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
Of course.
  He did an excellent job of prosecuting (guilty) Democrats in the legislature for using staffers for campaign activities.  I am still waiting for him to prosecute the offending Republicans.  Even more outrageous is his refusal to investigate Pat Meehan's (PA-07 candidate) petition fraud.  He's waiting until the election is over, the a-hole.

24, Male, GA-05

[ Parent ]
What is it about
Harris that you are not fond of?

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
On the issues
I love Harris. Harris' handling of the SF DA office is not as wonderful as the way Cooley reformed the LA DA office. (As the LA Times said, Harris's is a work in progress) However, Cooley had a lot of problems to begin with. (Think LAPD Rampart Scandal)

 

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26


[ Parent ]
Cooley
Is already in his 60s. He doesn't have much time to run for anything else.  

[ Parent ]
Um
Is already in his 60s. He doesn't have much time to run for anything else.

Jerry Brown would disagree.

16, Male, Democrat, CA-42/sometimes CA-32.


[ Parent ]
Steve Cooley
Isn't quite the CA legend Jerry Brown is.  

[ Parent ]
Cooley seems to me...
like the quintessential fauxderate, the Bob McDonnell of California.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Wouldn't go that far
I have to give him credit for bucking Jessica's Law and the Three Strikes hawks in his own party, among other things.  I don't want him to be AG, but he was a competent DA and I almost voted for him (ended up abstaining) against incompetent opponents last time around.

[ Parent ]
Just my impression of him
perhaps I am biased since I am gay and he is a Prop 8 supporter. just my opinion.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
From CQ: Three Different Scenarios for November 2nd
http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmsp...

Ouch. The first two are bad, but #3 is just far-out not possible (bigger wave than 1994). Basically apart from California (yay!) and Washington, there's a bloodbath everywhere else. #3 sees both Murray and Boxer lose. Again, not likely but its a possibility.  

16, Male, Democrat, CA-42/sometimes CA-32.


Zogby poll has Scott up 2
41-39.  FWIW.  Looks like a phone poll.

http://www.abcactionnews.com/d...


Actually it's Sink up 2.5.
Weird cross-tabs.

Scott getting more crossover support 14% to 9%.

Sink winning Indies by nearly 30%.

Sink winning North Florida and losing the I-4 corridor.

Race tied among whites.  Scott takes nearly 20% of African Americans, and has a 20-point lead among Hispanics.

I am highly doubtful that any of these cross-tabs accurately describes the race.  Outlier until corroborated.

Feeling better about the trajectory though.  Loved the ad with all the State Attorney's slamming Scott for refusing to cooperate with the Columbia/HCA investigation.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


[ Parent ]
You're right. Sorry


[ Parent ]
Mark Penn offers up some shitty polls for freshman Dems.
http://thehill.com/house-polls...

AZ-01 - Gosar 46, Kirkpatrick 39
CO-04 - Gardner 44, Markey 41
IL-11 - Kinzinger 49, Halvorson 31
MD-01 - Harris 43, Kratovil 40
MI-07 - Walberg 41, Schauer 41
NV-03 - Heck 47, Titus 44
NM-02 - Pearce 46, Teague 42
OH-01 - Renacci 42, Boccieri 39
OH-15 - Stivers 47, Kilroy 38
PA-03 - Kelly 49, Dahlkemper 36
VA-02 - Rigell 42, Nye 36
VA-05 - Hurt 45, Periello 44

Sadly none of this looks unreasonable to me.  It is a big shit sandwich for all, and I mean all, of these candidates.  If there's a silver lining, it's that Periello, Markey, and Schauer are doing a little better than I might have thought.  But they are still doing shitty, mired in the low 40's.

I would not look at these as Dem polls though.  Penn clearly selected many of the very most vulnerable freshman, which I suspect was deliberately designed to feed the doom narrative and thereby draw maximal attention to the polls.  Penn's not doing Dems any favors here.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


Next week for Penn
OPEN SEATS!!!  He'll serve up a real turd sandwich there for sure!!!

Then sophomores the next week, then veterans.  Those may be a little better.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


[ Parent ]
Can you believe
That veterans week will be the last week before the election? Its almost here already!!  

[ Parent ]
America's Natural Gas Alliance sponsored the polls
Read them accordingly.

Anyway, given tht I have the Dems losing all these seats save NV-3, these are not all bad results.  Schauer is tied.  I thought Markey and Boccieri would be down by a lot more.  Periello is right there, and Kratovil and Teague are close.


[ Parent ]
I don't think the sponsor matters here. I think the pollster matters......
It comes down to whether one trusts Penn as a pollster.

I certainly don't trust anything he says as a commentator.  Or his former partner Doug Schoen, for that matter.

I have no idea if Penn is any good as a pollster.  And his having worked for the Clintons doesn't impress me, we all know how that ended up.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Now let's stop pretending that Mary Jo Kilroy is not done.
She couldn't get (45%, 46%?) in 2008.... and this year?

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
Who is saying she is not done? nm
nm

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
StephenCLE who knows Ohio politics pretty well
seems to think she may have a way to come back.  

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]

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