Hanna ad

Would bet money that when Arcuri said, "We won't have to pay this debt, it will be up to our children and grandchildren," he was not citing that as a fabulous reason to accumulate lots of debt, as Hanna suggests.  Seems more likely that he would have said that in cautioning against the accumulation of debt in some fashion.  The context is not given.  

Smacks of a an out-of-context, cheap shot by Hanna.  Hope Arcuri is able to respond.  If Arcuri really did say that in the context suggested, then stupid, stupid, stupid on him.  But I highly doubt it.

Maybe Hanna learned from Ray Meier, who accused Arcuri of dialing a phone sex line on the taxpayer's dime.  Turned out it was a wrong number (one number off of the number he called seconds later) and Arcuri hung up within two seconds.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

---

by: spiderdem @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 12:23:16 PM UTC

Actually that phone sex attack ad was by the NRCC, and Meier was FURIOUS...

...with the NRCC.  Meier immediately felt like that ad helped sink his chances.

It just goes to show how a party committee has to be careful, that even you, spiderdem, as an obsessive campaign junkie, associates that ad with Meier.  People don't notice the distinctions, the obligatory ad ownership claims go over their heads.  So if you're a party commtitee admaker, you better make sure the material you're using is solid and you're not just taking flyers on random shots in the dark.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

---

by: DCCyclone @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 13:19:03 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

thanks

For clearing that up.  Was not an obsessive campaign junkie back then, although I paid more attention than most.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

---

by: spiderdem @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 13:35:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Context

I think this is a pretty effective ad for Hanna and not at all like the phone sex thing (which was just plain idiotic and low-class, but was NRCC as stated above). I found the Ithaca Journal article that the quote is sourced from but its in a paid archive unfortunately so I can't see the context that it's in. I think that even if Arcuri was warning against the spending the point is that he voted for spending anyways (not sure on that I would have to check his votes on stimulus, budget, etc. but he DID vote FOR HCR before voting AGAINST it).

Regardless, I really don't see Arcuri making it this cycle. Hanna has 3 ballot lines, he only has 1 and despite the most recent poll I don't see him as that popular in the district, especially hearing what I'm hearing from people up there. Arcuri just doesn't seem to be a good candidate, he beat a weak candidate in a terrible GOP year in 06 then barely squeaked by Hanna in a great Dem year in 08 even after Hanna was a late replacement and didn't even get into the race until the early summer. This is my home district and I will be back there this weekend so I think it will be interesting to see first hand what the atmosphere is like up there and also to see what types of ads are running and how often.

---

by: UpstateNYer @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 14:14:48 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

These are all good points

Also, I feel like it's worth pointing out that 44% of voters in the Siena poll didn't even know Hanna yet. Once ads start running (particularly once an ad with the John Kerry line drops), that'll change in a big way.

---

by: MIJunkie @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 15:54:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

What Kerry line?

Apologies if it's at the link; it's very late.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

---

by: Pan @ Tue Sep 21, 2010 at 08:21:15 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Despite the chatter about MI-15 being potentially competitive...

the first (and probably only) public poll of the race gives Dingell a 49-30 lead.

---

by: Johnny Longtorso @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 12:26:09 PM UTC

For Dingell to be "under 50"

is, probably, no great achievement))))

---

by: smoltchanov @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 13:25:30 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Dingell still wins, but by a reduced margin

Dingell is going to win reelection, but by a substantially reduced margin.  

Dingell's biggest fear is that he might be drawn out of existence by the Republicans as they seem poised to control the governorship and at least one house of the legislature.  Michigan is going to lose a seat and it is going to be in metro Detroit.  If Peters and Dingell both win reelection, one of them would likely have to be drawn out of existence.  It is simple:

1)  Draw Dingell's portion of Dearborn into Conyers' district.
2)  Give Monroe and the southern portion of MI-15 to Walberg.
3)  Give the eastern portion of McCotter's MI-11 to Peters along with the western Wayne and Washtenaw portions of Dingell's MI-15.
4)  Give McCotter the bulk of the Republican portions of MI-9, but also give slivers to Rodgers and Miller.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

---

by: Ryan_in_DelCo @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 13:33:52 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

This could still be an interesting race

Just by the fact that none of Dingell's opponents have even run ads in decades, and Steele will have money to do that. If Steele can paint Dingell as a career politician (and implicitly, one who won't retire even when he is physically unable to do the job anymore), he could close the gap some. If Ann Arbor turnout is down pretty substantially, it could even be close. Still don't think Steele would be able to pull it off, but who knows? This year's gonna be crazy.

Full disclosure: a good buddy of mine is Rob Steele's campaign manager

Also, Ryan, I'm trying to picture what you're saying in my head, and I don't see it working. I think you'd have to pervert MI-9 and MI-11 substantially to get your plan to work, but maybe I just can't do the mental geometry.

---

by: MIJunkie @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 16:01:46 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Gerrymandering

It would require a massive amount of gerrymandering to a level not seen recently in Michigan.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

---

by: Ryan_in_DelCo @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 16:14:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Gerrymandering in Michigan

The next redistricting will be less favorable to Republicans.

Michigan has some legal limits on gerrymandering, regarding where boundaries can be drawn.  They're weaker in that (higher-population density) part of the State, but they do still exist.  

Republican control in 2000 was so absolute that anything they didn't draw then, they couldn't.  If it were a knowledge gap, that might have changed, but legal and personal ambition barriers would still exist.

This time, Democrats probably will have a seat or two at the table; Republicans may be able to force the lost seat out of the D column, but an extreme gerrymander would require Democratic cooperation.  

---

by: JimJ @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 20:23:43 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

FL-Sen: Sarasota newspaper hits Rubio, hands Crist and Meek a gift (link)......

Rubio's fiscal behavior personally doesn't resemble what he claims to believe politically.

http://www.heraldtribune.com/a...

We're going to find out real fast whether Crist or Meek is running a competent campaign by whether either or both turns this story into 30-second ads.  This is the most effective narrative available to use against Marco.  He's not quite scary enough ideologically, there's not enough material to exploit to make that case except with slivers of the electorate.  But there's plenty of material to disqualify Rubio personally with a broad array of voters.

If Crist and Meek don't start directly attacking Rubio fast, they're incompetent candidates.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

---

by: DCCyclone @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 13:14:37 PM UTC

As long as both Crist and Meek are in this race

Rubio can win with 40%, and he'll get that.  Rubio is only potentially in trouble if Meek collapses.

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)

---

by: BearFanTX @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 13:27:48 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Or Crist

But i agree - with divided opposition Rubio wins..

---

by: smoltchanov @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 13:31:32 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Meek won't beat Rubio

If Crist collapses, Rubio wins.

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)

---

by: BearFanTX @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 16:05:53 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yes. May be - not by mich, but still - wins

---

by: smoltchanov @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 16:18:18 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Meek

Is Meek even attacking Rubio?  I got the impression he was primarily focused on Crist.  Attacking Rubio does not help Meek.  Many voters would migrate from Rubio to Crist and not Rubio to Meek.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

---

by: Ryan_in_DelCo @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 13:53:46 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

You're wrong about that. In fact what Meek has is a Catch 22 because...

...while what you're saying is correct on its own terms, it's equally correct that NOT attacking Rubio hands Rubio the election.

The fact is Rubio has pulled away, and both Crist and Meek must drag him back down into the mid-30s for either to have a shot on election day.

Meek's path to victory, if there is one at all, is to drive Rubio GOP and GOP-leaning voters to Crist and Crist Dems and Dem-leaners to Meek, both simultaneously.  Trying to merely trade places with Crist works only so long as Rubio is stuck in the 30s.  Now that Rubio clearly is in the 40s, both Meek and Crist have to drag down Rubio.

The only competent campaign strategy for both Crist and Meek after Rubio has surged is for both to attack Rubio at least as much as each other.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

---

by: DCCyclone @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 14:49:59 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

And just like that, a good Crist attack ad on Rubio......

Really good hit on Rubio's earmarks that Crist says he vetoed.  Doesn't even get into the personal stuff detailed in the H-T piece, but dovetails nicely with it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

---

by: DCCyclone @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 17:36:40 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

DC: Fenty as Republican

The registration numbers for DC are 76% Dem, 7% GOP, 16% no party, so the idea of trying again in November, when the Republicans and independents can vote wasn't completely insane, and I saw several Fenty fans arguing for it. They underestimate the number of Democratic votes he'd lose between the primary and the general for making the switch. Fenty rightly realized that there was no point in humiliating himself just to lose a second time.

Also, the Board of Elections ruled that Fenty couldn't accept the Republican nomination, even though he got the most write-in votes, because he would've had to be a Republican at the time of the vote. Switching afterward isn't enough. But by the time of that ruling he'd already endorsed Gray anyway.

---

by: KCinDC @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 13:51:05 PM UTC

Should've Gone Independent

There's a bit of 20/20 hindsight to this observation, but he'd have been better off running as an independent in the general election.

I really don't think he'd have lost that many votes. The people who wouldn't vote for him because he dropped the "D" label weren't going to vote for him anyway. (The Republican label would have been somewhat more problematic.)

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

---

by: Answer Guy @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 14:05:15 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not an option

By the time of the primary, the deadline for getting on the ballot as an independent had passed. Other than running as a Republican (which turned out to be impossible anyway), the only possibility would have been running as a write-in, and even if you run an amazing campaign you're going to lose lots of votes as a write-in compared with actually being on the ballot.

I suppose Fenty could've decided ahead of time he was going to lose the primary and so skipped it and gotten on the November ballot as an independent. That would've been an interesting move.

---

by: KCinDC @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 14:13:40 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

DC Mayor

I mentioned this in a previous post, but there actually was a path to victory for Fenty had he ran on the GOP line. The short version is that he only lost the primary by 12k votes and there are 30k registered Republicans and 75k independents in the city, to go along with the 330k registered Dems. The main problem would be if Fenty could hold his Dem votes and at least split the indy vote after switching parties, since he more than likely would pick up the vast majority of GOP votes in the general. The point is moot now but it would have been really interesting had a "Republican" been elected, or even had a shot, in one of the nation's most Democratic cities.  

WSJ went over a scenario like that here:

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/...

---

by: UpstateNYer @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 13:59:12 PM UTC

I agree. I think if he wanted to do it he could ahve won the general

In the general Fenty only picks up voters. His switch would be kind of simialr to Bloomberg's. He would make it clear that he is a Republican in Name Only and is only doing this for this election and will switch back the being a Democrat afterwards.

If Fenty kept running I think he would have had a shot at getting re-elected. At the very least he would have had better odds of winning than Murkowski has.

Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
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---

by: izengabe @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 16:48:53 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The problem with your theory is that the Democratic primary

in D.C. is considered the general election. Hence why Fenty ran as a Democrat and in the primary. Besides the problems of pissing off the party that represents >75% (and in november elections >85%) of the voting population there really is no electoral chance for a republican to win in D.C. even if they were as liberal as they come the R would serve as an anchor. If you can show me any recent precident for a Republican winning more then 20% of the vote citywide i'd like to see it heh.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

---

by: D in FL @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 17:12:37 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yes but Fenty would clearly be a Democrat

running on the Republican line for tactical purposes. If he could make that perfectlty clear to his supporters that he is still a Democrat and his party switch was just a legalistic election manouver I dont think it would matter that much.

Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
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---

by: izengabe @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 17:55:54 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Joe DioGuardi also refuses to endorse Paladino

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

---

by: andyroo312 @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 14:14:46 PM UTC

Nice to see Sestak finally fighting back...

I just hope it's not too late.  DSCC was hitting Toomey hard as well in a recent ad. Where are the Club for Growth quotes from Toomey?  Are they being saved for closer to the election day - to try and copy the Specter "I changed parties so I can get re-elected" strategy?

---

by: Roscoe @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 14:29:07 PM UTC

This

race will be won in the suburbs of Philly. And if Ryan in DelCo is right, Sestak has a long way to convincing suburbanites that's he's their man.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

---

by: ehstronghold @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 14:36:29 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not so much convincing

It is convincing enough voters to compensate for a probable drop in African American turnout in Philadelphia.  Sestak needs to win by double digits in the four suburban counties collectively because he will likely get trounced in the Lehigh Valley and the T.  Right now, I would guess he is losing Bucks and Chester by double digits and winning Delaware and Montgomery by single digits.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

---

by: Ryan_in_DelCo @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 15:21:48 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm starting to think that

Specter may have been the stronger candidate against Toomey. I may be wrong and Sestak may come out swinging in the last few weeks, but Specter would have been pounding Toomey since May and probably wouldn't be down by so much right now.

Sestak needs to step it up... starting now.

19, gay male, IL-7, MN 4 (college), Dem

---

by: knickelbein5 @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 18:31:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Like PPP said when they last polled this race

If Specter had one, this would be in AR territory. No one with a sub-30 approval rating is winning in a purple state this year.  

---

by: GOPVOTER @ Tue Sep 21, 2010 at 04:01:50 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I don't know if it would matter

But I'd wish we could have gotten a better candidate than Sestak. I don't know why, but I've never been all that happy with Sestak as a candidate (honestly, the only reason to ever support him in the first place was because he wasn't Snarlin' Arlen, but past that...)

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

---

by: DGM @ Tue Sep 21, 2010 at 04:04:20 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Cat fud

is tasty.....Rick Lazio leaning towards staying in the race. Which will definitely take votes away from Paladino and help Cuomo.

http://www.nydailynews.com/ny_...

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

---

by: ehstronghold @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 14:47:06 PM UTC

Not like Cuomo really needs that help

barring a Coakley-style goof-up.

My blog
Twitter
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

---

by: californianintexas @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 15:45:12 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Could be the one place where "cat fud" helps

The race was Safe Dem no matter who won the primary, so it's not like this hurts GOP chances in a competitive race.

With Lazio on the ballot, his suburban supporters who don't like Paladino have a reason to show up, which could help in NY-01 and NY-19. Also, if Lazio keeps the Conservative line but doesn't get to the threshold, maybe the Conservative Party will lose its ballot line and save us from some of the God-awful infighting we've seen this cycle.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

---

by: MassGOP @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 16:23:34 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The whole thing is a giant mess for the GOP & Conservative Parties

The problem is Lazio has no room to run. What reason is there for anyone to vote for Lazio on the Conservative line outside of Conservative Party insiders desire to keep the ballot line for the sake of patronage?

Bottom line is Cuomo has moved so far to the right he's basically co-oped the establishment GOP's message. Cuomo is running against Democrat controlled Albany. He's running on a platform of standing up to municipal unions, cutting property taxes and keeping spending down.

I mean Cuomo's even called himself the real "Tea Party" candidate.

So on the issues there is not a dime's worth of difference between Cuomo and Lazio. Any disaffected Republican or Indy who cant stomach Paladino can just as easily vote for Cuomo as Lazio.

I cant see Lazio running and if he does I think it might be hard for him to get 50,000 votes on the Conservative line.

The point is if your mad at Albany and want change you are voting for Cuomo. If you are mad at Albany and want to blow the place up you are voting for Paladino. And if you are just mad at white folks you can vote for Charles Barron.

Personally I think both the GOP & the Dems made such a mess of things they DESERVE a guy like Paladino. The crazier he gets, the more outragous things he says about Pataki, D'Amato, Silver, Espada and their ilk the more I sercetly root for the guy against my better judgement.

If even someone like me feels like that then I am certain portion of the NY electorate does and can totally see Carl getting 40% of the vote as a giant protest FU to the power that be on both sides.

As for the baloot situation for the GOP it will have to be sorted out by Sept 27th which is the deadline for judicial nominations.

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---

by: izengabe @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 17:13:08 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yup

Cuomo's staked out the middle and everything to the left while Paladino has the bat shit crazy vote. No where for Lazio to run. Though it will be fun since Paladino likes to openly insult people.

Paladino on:

Silver: He should be in Attica.
Pataki: "Deranged Idiot"
Paterson: Lucky he isn't in jail.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

---

by: ehstronghold @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 19:57:51 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

You know what's coming...

Democrat - 46%
GOP - 29%
Independent - 25%

Cuomo - 90/10/59 = 59%
Paladino - 7/67/31 = 30%
Lazio - 3/23/10 = 11%

All of Lazio's support would stem from rank-and-file, downstate Republicans. 'Tis it.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

---

by: andyroo312 @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 20:23:04 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

PPP will show Feingold

down double digits tomorrow.

http://politicalwire.com/archi...

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

---

by: spiderdem @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 15:00:32 PM UTC

One

word: FUCK!!

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

---

by: ehstronghold @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 15:10:16 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Oh crap.

Oh crap.

---

by: Kendall @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 15:13:16 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

This is a big victory for my armchair punditry yesterday, however.

http://www.swingstateproject.c...

I also just saved a bunch of money by switching to GEICO.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

---

by: spiderdem @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 15:16:44 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Wow...

Democrats need to accept there is a massive implosion underway in the entire Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic not the South as some on here seem obsessed with still arguing even though the evidence strongly suggests otherwise.  

This is not a problem limited to Pennsylvania and Ohio, but includes now Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois and probably Indiana.  The Democrats should pray to every deity out there thanking them for the New York Republicans being so incompetent because this bloodbath could be happening there too.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

---

by: Ryan_in_DelCo @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 15:28:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

100% Agree

Upstate NY is very similar to areas in PA, OH, etc. but the NY GOP is too busy squabbling over unwinnable statewide races, couldn't get its act together to put up a candidate in the winnable (theoretically) Senate race against Gillibrand and arguing over Conservative/GOP candidates in downstate and LI races to really make a difference. At this point I think the only guaranteed takeaway is NY 29 and while they have strong shots in 24, 19 and 1 they should be much stronger in lot of other races, not even counting the blown Senate race.

On top of all of this they have a realistic chance of retaking the Senate but their general disfunction royally screws that up as well. I find it very interesting that all 6 of those states you mentioned could wind up with GOP governors and 5 of the 6 could elect GOP senators but in NY its going to be blow out city in Gov and Senate. Pretty pathetic.

---

by: UpstateNYer @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 16:05:04 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Irony

The Republicans will probably get 3 or 4 seats out of New York, but only one will be truly upstate (NY-29) while the rest will be within an hour train ride of NYC.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

---

by: Ryan_in_DelCo @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 16:08:39 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

What seats are you thinking of

as I think you may be overstating yourself.  NY-1 is leans, NY-19 is toss-up (and I predict a loss), NY-13 sounds more like a likely.

---

by: Andrew @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 19:59:33 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

NY Seats

I'm thinking NY 29 (upstate), NY 24 (upstate), NY 19 (NYC burbs) and NY-1 (LI/NYC burbs) will go GOP, with NY 25, NY 23 and NY 20 (all upstate) staying Dem. Of those last 3 I'd say the order of likelihood of flipping is 20, 23 (stupid Hoffman), 25. I'm thinking Ryan is thinking along the same lines as my guesses.  

---

by: UpstateNYer @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 22:19:28 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

100% Agree

Biggest GOP FAIL this cycle is NY. Although I think some of the GOP primaries worked out OK for the GOP.

They got their best candidate in NY-1 without a divided field. In NY-23 the candidate the GOP should have picked for the special won. I think he gives the GOP a much better shot at a take over than Hoffman could.

While Grimm in my opinion is the strongest candidate in NY-13 (and ensures a unified GOP/Conservative Party line)that was a big recruitment fail. If they could have gotten one of the GOP City Council candidates to run(like James Oddo) this could be a toss up right now.

NY-19 the GOP dodged a bullet by Greg Ball switching to the State Senate race. On a personal note I wouldnt cry if Ball won because he will be nothing but one giant headache for the GOP senate caucus. He will be the 1 Senator who will always buck the GOP leadership their and the GOP's own personal Ruben Diaz.

Also think NY-20 was a recruitment fail and Murphy is getting a much easier race than he should be getting for a freshman in this cycle.

Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
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---

by: izengabe @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 17:30:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

You need to watch your tone.

We are not going to tolerate lectures from you berating the commenters here.

Thin ice, Ryan. Very thin ice.

---

by: James L. @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 17:58:36 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Sorry

Wow after rereading that it comes off as harsh.  Definitely should watch that.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

---

by: Ryan_in_DelCo @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 18:04:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well I was going to stick-up for those in the categorization

given and say that we dont only talk about the South (havent for for quite time, when polls started coming) and that you and others maybe should re-examine our opinions now rather than the whole story.

So at least dont feel lonely.  We all salivate over GA-Gov and so we can really stick the fork in GA House wise.  (Is it possible to shore-up Barrow to make that seat a solid liberal seat (hell, AA majority and just be done with it?) and shore-up  Marshall?

---

by: Andrew @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 20:12:41 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

South Georgia will be a tough draw for either side

If Barnes wins and we get a compromise map, it's going to be really difficult to shore up Marshall without weakening Barrow or Bishop, especially since I think the African-Americans in the legislature (and perhaps the Justice dept.) will want at least one majority black seat south of Atlanta. It's very easy to help Barrow, but helping Marshall without hurting Bishop would probably require sending his district either down to Savannah or up to Gwinnett County, which I'm not sure is possible.

If Republicans hold the trifecta, they'll give Barrow a black majority and screw Marshall by spitting his district up into a more conservative 8th and a new 14th, neither of which he would be favored in. I'm not sure what they could do with Bishop without endangering Kingston or Westmoreland.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

---

by: MassGOP @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 22:54:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Don't know if this refers to the thread overall or this

particular comment, but I wasn't offended by Ryan's response to my comment.  Ryan and I generally agree on the state of things, so there's no hostility there.  I'm guessing it was the lashing out at nameless other users that was offensive though.  

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

---

by: spiderdem @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 18:09:07 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

One of the benefits of this site, IMO

is the focus on reality-based understanding. While I think the term "massive implosion" was too harsh (I wouldn't use it unless Dingell were losing)

I think in the past few weeks, Ryan has backed up his assertions with serious facts and data.

If Ds are going to retain both (or either) houses of Congress,

those who run D campaigns need to understand what is happening. And I believe Ryan has his finger on the trends, the seats and regions where D candidates are at serious risk.

---

by: tietack @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 18:31:14 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I appreciate Ryan's thoughtfulness but I appreciate the moderators' policing even more......

This is a Democratic site, and Republicans are guests and have to watch their manners more than Democrats do.

I think of it the same as my favorite Iowa State Cyclones message boards, on Cyclone Report on the Rivals network, where Hawkeye fans can post but will have posts banned or users deleted altogether if crossing a line.  There's no pretense of "fairness," it's a "partisan" (for Cyclone fans) site.

Same here, it's a partisan site, a double standard is THE standard of review.  It's first and foremost a safe place for Democrats to be Democrats.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

---

by: DCCyclone @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 19:22:31 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Everything Ryan said was true...

Democrats are going to lose two to three in Ohio, three to four in PA, one to two in Michigan, one to two in Wisconsin, at least one in Illinois ...

Republicans may need to back up their facts more than Democrats on this site... (which seems strange when you think about it) but it's true.

Take a look at the Democratic governors here. All of their approvals, with the exception of Missouri (if you consider that part of the Midwest) are 20, 30, -40.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

---

by: TheGradyDem @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 22:39:26 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

We don't know for sure who will win or lose

until after the elections. Ryan's point of view is certainly a respectable one that's worth considering, but it is not a fact a priori.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

---

by: Pan @ Tue Sep 21, 2010 at 08:32:21 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

It's based on polling which is as good as any prediction.

Ryan is reading the polls.

Saying that the Democrats are going to lose in the South, when we have numbers showing Marshall, Bright, Childers, and others up, and no Democratic internals from the Rust Belt is weird though.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

---

by: TheGradyDem @ Tue Sep 21, 2010 at 14:17:14 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Michigan's Democratic implosion

isn't "going on", it has been there for years; it was suspended by the Obama campaign, but ... I honestly don't think it is any worse than it was 1 month ago, or 3 months ago, or even 3 years ago (pre-Obama).

Offhand, I can only think of 3 recent Democrats who I noticed campaigning heavily in Michigan on "this is what we should do", rather than just "this is what I'll try to prevent", or "I'm a reliable D vote in a gerrymandered district".  And one of those was Obama.

(The others are/were Schauer, which may keep him his seat, and Benson, running for Secretary of State this year.  I do still hold out hope for others.)

---

by: JimJ @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 20:55:11 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I've been with you on WI-Sen, I've been worried the past couple weeks that...

...this seat might be gone.

I'm increasingly buying into the idea that our biggest vulnernabilities are the Midwest and then, outside the Midwest, purple suburban districts.

I've tended to think of Feingold, Murray, and Boxer together as incumbents who seemed to get in trouble much later than the others we knew would struggle.  But there seems to be stabilization and even slight recovery for us on the West Coast.  The Midwest, however, is cratering for us.

Right now I think we're on track to lose Senate seats in, in order of likelihood of defeat, ND; AR; IN; PA; WI; and CO.  I think the picture today shows we hold the other vulnerable Dem-held seats and gain nothing.  Of the 6 losses, CO is the least likely defeat for us because of the opposing candidate we face and the comparative campaigns so far, with Bennet acknowledged as running a better campaign than Buck.  Our best pickup opportunity remains KY, where Paul has handed us plenty of material to use against him even in conservative KY.  FL is slipping away from Crist, and Hodes in NH actually might be a better opportunity for us than anyplace except KY, as OH and MO are slipping but NH has become a little stronger for Team Blue.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

---

by: DCCyclone @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 15:31:42 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Oh, and I forgot the sleeper: AK-Sen, which I think...

...has potential for the biggest shock of the night, or more realistically early Wednesday morning since Alaska is so many time zones away and we might not have a result till the next day or even later.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

---

by: DCCyclone @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 15:32:44 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Alaska again?

Ugh... that damn state kept me up 'til 3 in the morning in '08 (mountain time).

Then again, given my home-state's tendency to be excruciatingly slow on declaring a winner I can't really talk either.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

---

by: DGM @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 18:41:59 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

MN is annoying

because Minneapolis and St Paul usually come in first so it gives us really pretty looking numbers for 2 hours and then bleh.

---

by: Andrew @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 20:42:48 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm not so sure about CA

But I think the blood letting stops there. They wont get over the top in CT, and Reid's ground game can make a difference in NV

---

by: Jolpaj @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 15:36:44 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Where is Feingold losing support?

I am curious where you think Feingold is losing support.  His opponent in 2004 won the bulk of the suburban counties while he won the urban counties and western/northern rural counties.  

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

---

by: Ryan_in_DelCo @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 15:37:33 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

If there is a "massive enthusiasm gap"

then it's not a matter of losing support, as it is not getting his supporters to vote.  That is something easier corrected than actually having former supporters go to the other candidate.  

---

by: Paleo @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 15:41:37 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm looking at toplines in the polling trend, not geographical crosstabs, but if I had to guess...

...I'd say Feingold's bleeding might very well be more uniform than concentrated.  The Democratic bloodbath in the Midwest doesn't seem limited to suburbs, and I can see the normally-friendly Southwest counties as well as the more Democratic of the northern counties going to Johnson.  There are a lot of those counties that frequently go Democratic by only small margins.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

---

by: DCCyclone @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 15:43:28 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think its an overreaction

In The 2004 presidential race i was certain Wisconsin was going to fall in September but Kerry pulled it off. I'd put 10 bucks on Feingold holding his seat probably be something similar to his 98 margin of 51-48 or closer.

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

---

by: D in FL @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 17:16:52 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Kos' tweet says it's all enthusiasm gap

(Apparently it's a PPP/dKos poll.) Kos' tweet says that among RV's, Feingold and Johnson are even, but that the LV model has Johnson up double digits.  

---

by: liberalpragmatist @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 16:05:07 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Then that poll is just bogus

as others have noted here before; Wisconsin is a state that ALWAYS has high turnout. Neither party suffers significant dropoff in off-year elections, regardless. Not to mention I know people from Wisconsin, the Democratic base loves Feingold and would pull out every stop for him, even now. It's the independents who have never cared for him and kept his races close.  

---

by: jwaalk @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 16:35:36 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I still worry about IL and NV

but think we'll win NV because of Reid's vastly superior campaign and IL because the razor tight polls show so many Dem undecideds.  I have the same 6 flips as you.

Our Senate candidates should take some cues from the aptly-named Barbara Boxer and Patty Murray, who have really come out swinging at their Republican opponents this month and are getting immediate polling results to show for it.

I'm not feeling any pickups, although I am intrigued by the fact that Republicans are spending in KY.  Dems are spending (kind of big) in MO, which is strange to me.  But maybe there's something there.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

---

by: spiderdem @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 15:38:34 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I forgot about IL, and it does worry me, but if I had to put money on it...

...I'd say Giannlouias pulls it out.

This is the toughest call because there are more undecideds in IL-Sen polling than in any other Senate race.  The undecideds remain unusually high.  They could break either way, and if this wasn't Obama's home state Kirk would have a clear lead right now.  If Giannoulias wins, it will be only because of Obama.  And in that vein, he's smart to air an ad siding with the President.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

---

by: DCCyclone @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 15:45:46 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

In addition to heavy Dem undecideds in IL

Green Party candidate LeAlan Jones is pulling a lot of Dem (especially AA) votes according to the polls.  Obama can help get a lot of those Dems back in the fold by driving up Chicago turnout.  Giannoulias could lose literally everywhere in the state and still win with a kick ass Cook County turnout and margin.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

---

by: spiderdem @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 15:49:10 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Jones is a good guy

But his support will not stay 'till election day. There have been polls showing him with 10 percent of the vote but there is no way his total remains that high. Obama will come to Chicago and shore up the Cook County vote (African-American voters and lakefront liberals), and it will be up to Giannoulias to put up a strong showing in the collar counties and along the western border where Democrats traditionally do well.
I would be surprised if Jones got more than 4 or 5 percent in total.

19, gay male, IL-7, MN 4 (college), Dem

---

by: knickelbein5 @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 18:39:01 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Re: MO

I'm pessimistic about our odds in Missouri too, but I suspect the DSCC's investment is based on the following factors.

For one thing, they probably feel the need to play SOME offense in order to force the Republican campaign committees to spend money on some of their own seats.

Second, Carnahan really is a very strong candidate and is running a very good campaign, albeit in a very bad climate. And Blunt is really one of the weaker candidates Republicans could have selected (the race would be completely over had Blunt not muscled Jim Talent out of the race). There's a reason that in 2009, most observers thought this would be a Dem pickup.

It's possible they have good internals, although I'm a little skeptical because they'd probably have been leaked. However, there is a long record of major MO statewide races being very close, even in otherwise bad climates for one party or the other. Jean Carnahan only barely lost in 2002, a bad cycle for Dems. Jim Talent's loss in 2006 was very narrow. And Claire McCaskill's gubernatorial loss in '04 was far closer than the presidential race in the state - she lost by under 3, whereas Kerry lost the state by 7.

So it's not out of the question that this race could close to the low single-digits. It's a stretch, but they probably see it as a decent pickup opportunity for these reasons.  

---

by: liberalpragmatist @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 16:01:25 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

You're wrong to guess at the internals from whether they've been leaked......

Internals are seldom leaked even when they're good.

Private polling is the basis of campaign strategy and tactics, and you hold even the toplines close to your vest unless you really need to release them for some bigger potential benefit or to stop the bleeding in a damaging narrative.

Notice we're seeing a bunch of favorable Dem internals the past 3 weeks after seeing virtually none for a long time.  I don't think the polling got better for us.  I think we were probably in better shape than realized in a lot of those races the whole time, but the standard rule applied that you don't release internals unless and until you think you HAVE to.  The "House is lost" narrative suddenly took over in the political media and threatened to kill our fundraising and turnout, so the DCCC and some individual campaigns decided they had to show some cards to disprove the narrative.

And you know what?...it worked at least with me and I think others at SSP, and I bet political reporters privately are also pausing now a little even if not changing the storylines at all.

In the case of MO-Sen, the fact the DSCC is spending ad money there is enough to keep the media from declaring the race over, since ad money is a signal in itself of competitiveness.  Beyond that, there's no reason for the DSCC to release private polling.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

---

by: DCCyclone @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 16:29:00 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well

I believed that the only way the Dems could retain the House is for the narrative to be that a GOP takeover is likely, and then to scare Dem base voters and moderate independents to come to polls.

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)

---

by: BearFanTX @ Tue Sep 21, 2010 at 18:09:56 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Feingold also trailed in 1998

He was down to Mark Neumann by a few points in late October.

http://www.salon.com/news/poli...

Whether he can withstand the political dynamics this year is another matter.

---

by: Paleo @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 15:50:56 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I wish PPP would just release their polls

Without the previews.  I'm still waiting for them to release today the California poll they teased on Friday.

---

by: Paleo @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 15:35:22 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

what did they say about CA?

---

by: Jolpaj @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 15:37:09 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

As if on cue, here it is. Boxer by 8.

http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

---

by: Paleo @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 15:37:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Boxer should win some kind of award

for her ad on Fiorina's term as CEO of HP.  If I were someone struggling economically in California, that ad would just make my blood boil at Fiorina.  Laid of 30,000 workers, tripled her salary, and bought lots of cool, expensive stuff, followed by her saying "I'm really proud of what I did at HP."  This is what our incumbents need to do to survive.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

---

by: spiderdem @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 15:42:08 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

"bought lots of cool, expensive stuff"

Fiorina and Whitman: Separated at birth?

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

---

by: californianintexas @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 15:46:51 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I still

wonder why Cornyn thought Fiorina was the best they could of come up with in California. I mean, she doesn't have 150 million to blow away like Whitman does. Anyway I'm glad the NRSC went with the flawed CEO instead of Tom Campbell.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

---

by: ehstronghold @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 16:02:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yeah, Campbell might well have been favored

Fiorina is much weaker.  

---

by: liberalpragmatist @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 16:05:53 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Unlike much of the country

being an outsider may be more of a liability in California, thanks to Arnold dragging down the luster of outsider-ness into the mud.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

---

by: californianintexas @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 17:37:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I still disagree with this

Yes, Campbell was better on the issues, but he was also flat-broke, and that's the worst thing you can be in a statewide California race. Fiorina's too conservative, but she's wealthy-enough to keep this competitive.  

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

---

by: andyroo312 @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 20:24:03 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

If Campbell could have raised the money

he would have won.  

I think Meg Whitman, for example, would have certainly beat Boxer, however.

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)

---

by: BearFanTX @ Tue Sep 21, 2010 at 18:14:31 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think they preferred Campbell... n/t

---

by: LordMike @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 18:12:20 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

because

unlike Fiorina, he can't be painted as an outsider. Being a political outsider in California in 2010 is not exactly the best place to be if you wanna win statewide.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

---

by: californianintexas @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 19:38:34 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

They didnt

Cornyn said on the day of the primary that they still wanted Fiorina. I still agree with Andy here. Fiorina>Campbell.

---

by: GOPVOTER @ Tue Sep 21, 2010 at 04:07:14 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think Campbell maybe

was slightly more electable, but he's more liberal than Snowe or Castle would have been.  So whatever you gain in electability, you lose in voting record after they win.  

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)

---

by: BearFanTX @ Tue Sep 21, 2010 at 18:13:23 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

California is not Alabama

I can't believe I'm giving advice to Republicans but you guys really need to deal with running moderate candidates. Unless you want to repeat DE-SEN over and over again. (Not like I'm complaining =])

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

---

by: sapelcovits @ Thu Sep 23, 2010 at 09:13:39 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I don't disagree with you

But I'm explaining the thinking behind why establishment Republicans may have preferred Fiorina over Campbell.

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)

---

by: BearFanTX @ Thu Sep 23, 2010 at 13:10:30 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Nonsense...

I can't think of an instance where ideology trumped electability for the establishment. In races like, say, IL-10...I believe the NRCC supported Beth Coulson? And of course the opposite is true of Dems where the DCCC supported Ed Case in HI-01. That just doesn't smell right to me.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

---

by: sapelcovits @ Thu Sep 23, 2010 at 13:25:06 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Find another moderate conservative

who would be stronger than Fiorina.  There aren't any in California.  Well Whitman is, but she was already running for Governor.  

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)

---

by: BearFanTX @ Tue Sep 21, 2010 at 18:16:11 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

She must have seen what Harry Reid...

Is doing next door, over here. Funny enough, they even used the same announcer.

Compare.

And I like how they turn the "economy framing" on its head, showing Angle and Fiorina as out-of-touch extremists. I know Boxer has nowhere near Reid's ad budget, but IMHO this is the kind of messaging that will win her this election. (Now why can't Jerry Brown do something like this?)

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

---

by: atdleft @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 16:56:23 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well, I guess you can look at the glass half-full

If Wisconsin is trending Lean R, California is trending back to Lean D.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

---

by: andyroo312 @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 20:17:08 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Another SurveyUSA whackadoo poll: WA-9

Adam Smith (D) - 49%
Dick Muri (R) - 46%

http://www.king5.com/community...

---

by: Kendall @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 15:20:35 PM UTC

Interesting...

Since Spiderdem is taking some credit for his predictions that Feingold is DOA, I must point out that this seat is on the Wealthy Democratic Leaning Suburban Seats Held by Democrats list:  http://www.swingstateproject.c...

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

---

by: Ryan_in_DelCo @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 15:30:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

That said

I really do not have much faith in SUSA polls at this point.  It is plausible that this seat is in play and reinforces what some of us have been saying for months.  If this is truly a wave where suburban voters abandon the Democrats, WA-9 would certainly be in play.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

---

by: Ryan_in_DelCo @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 15:32:26 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

In a world where Dino Rossi is up by 7,

this poll makes a lot of sense.  Here on Earth, where he's down 5-9 according to the last few polls, not so much.

I said last week that SUSA's methodology this cycle will show a close race in just about any Dem district where the Republican has raised six figures.  CA-20 was Exhibit A.  WA-09 is Exhibit B.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

---

by: spiderdem @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 15:32:34 PM UTC

At least she didnt join a coven

I mean, I dont mind people practicing a little witchcraft, maybe going on a few satanic dates, but, like most Americans, I draw the line at coven membership. That's when you get into serious whak-job territory. Also when you think the government is putting human brains into mice.

---

by: Jolpaj @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 15:33:25 PM UTC

NRCC new young guns

http://www.nrcc.org/default.as...

PA-13????  I saw a decent amount of Adcock signs in the district last week, but I am absolutely shocked they moved it into the middle tier of their candidates.  

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

---

by: Ryan_in_DelCo @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 15:55:04 PM UTC

Tiers

are based on a number of things, including fundraising and grassroots support levels. Perhaps she raised a lot of money and has a decent support base? This is a historically Republican area depsite its D +7 rating so I can see there being a decent amount of Republicans or ex-Republicans around willing to vote against Schwartz

---

by: UpstateNYer @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 16:11:58 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Ugh

With the new Wisconsin PPP poll, I don't want to overreact, but I'm thinking the wave is going to be more like a tsunami in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Ohio, Indiana, Illinois..

The sad thing is Feingold is actually a very good senator too..

---

by: Addicted to Politics @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 16:17:28 PM UTC

Not really

I'm liberal, but his tone has always turned me off, like a bit of a crusader. Plus when I was page Feingold was NEVER on the Senate floor, he stormed in for 30 seconds for vote, and stormed out without even stopping to talk to other Senators and he never even made eye-contact or seemed to acknowledge/realize the pages or staff where there handing him stuff, holding doors open for him. Not a very likable guy. While Kit Bond used to come and talk to us and came off as a very affable, easy-going, nice guy even though I voraciously opposed his politics.  

---

by: jwaalk @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 16:41:33 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Honestly, I'm conflicted on Feingold...

On one hand, I do appreciate he has strong principles. He was the only Senator to reject the horrifying "(Un)PATRIOT(ic) Act" in 2001, after all.

But OTOH, I never liked that he seems more interested in being "Mr. Liberal Crusader" than being effective. While much of the same criticism has been thrown at Barbara Boxer, I know that's not true as I remember how much she got done for California.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

---

by: atdleft @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 16:49:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Wait, when did PPP poll Wisconsin?

I don't see anything on their site. Are you sure you're not talking about last week's Razzy poll?

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

---

by: atdleft @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 16:45:23 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

They polled it for Kos

Their private client polls don't show up on their main website, only on the client's. Kos will have the numbers up tomorrow.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

---

by: MassGOP @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 16:56:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I apologize. I found it...

Markos tweeted a tease. And YIKES, it's not the kind of tease I like. I guess either Feingold needs to get it together ASAP or he wants to go down in flames.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

---

by: atdleft @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 16:59:29 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

no

Feingold is a good devil's advocate. He isn't much of a senator. If he had been the 60th vote on financial regulation instead of Scott Brown, the end result would have been closer to what he wanted. Instead, he voted against it because it didn't meet his unrealistic standard.

41, Ind, CA-05

---

by: sacman701 @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 16:58:11 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

So much for McCain-Feingold

---

by: Paleo @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 17:19:41 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

New PPP poll: Boxer +8!

Here it is. And even better, this is a "Likely Voter Screen", so this means more Democrats for Boxer are now being motivated to vote. I've figured for some time that the GOP was getting overconfident in thinking Fiorina can win California, but this confirms it for me.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

---

by: atdleft @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 16:42:01 PM UTC

NC-07 - McIntyre up 6 (or more)? WTF, POS?

http://www.businesswire.com/ne...

Check out the games POS plays with semantics.  Ilario Pantano leads by 7 among the "most likely voters," but McIntyre leads by 6 among "very likely voters."  I'm guessing McIntyre leads by more than 6 among just plain "likely voters," but who the fuck knows?  Weird.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

---

by: spiderdem @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 17:38:37 PM UTC

Looks like an internal poll

The bottom gives the Republican campaign's contact number.  And it's already about three weeks old.

---

by: Paleo @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 17:49:02 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Definitely is.

POS pretty much only does internals AFAIK.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

---

by: spiderdem @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 17:50:28 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

An East/West split is developing

Out west, in WA, NV, CO, and CA, the democrats are doing better than they were a month ago.  But back east, things don't look good in MO, KY, OH, PA, IN, FL, etc, and now it looks like you can throw WI in that mix (which is a SHOCK to me, I would've never expected Johnson to be leading, much less outside the margin of error in a PPP poll)

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

---

by: StephenCLE @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 18:01:22 PM UTC

Hopefully

PA will come around. I wish Sestak would just start his blitz of Toomey already because he is a very flawed candidate. I don't know WTF Fisher is doing in Ohio, but he managed to turn a small lead from June into a double-digit deficit.

19, gay male, IL-7, MN 4 (college), Dem

---

by: knickelbein5 @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 18:43:16 PM UTC

Fisher is doing nothing...

...as expected. His entire campaign strategy was to ride Strickland's coattails.... now that there are no coattails, he's screwed!

---

by: LordMike @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 19:46:45 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

That's right.

Remind me why he was the candidate? I mean, why didn't Menendez try to recruit Ryan into the race?

This was a big recruit fail. I think Portman could have lost.  

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

---

by: TheGradyDem @ Tue Sep 21, 2010 at 04:14:11 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

WV-Sen: US Chamber of Commerce backs Manchin

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/ey...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

---

by: LookingOver @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 19:35:46 PM UTC

Wow

good news for Manchin.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

---

by: ehstronghold @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 19:58:35 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Carnahan Internal

Shows her tied with Blunt: http://www.missouridems.org/he...

She's probably down 4-6 right now.

19, gay male, IL-7, MN 4 (college), Dem

---

by: knickelbein5 @ Tue Sep 21, 2010 at 04:58:28 AM UTC

MA-Gov: where the political media can't accept the polling as-is......

Perhaps the most fascinating personal political recovery I've seen all cycle that no one talks about is Deval Patrick's.  Patrick looked dead in the water a YEAR ago.  His job approvals and favorables were underwater in Corzine territory.

And all year he's climbed back up to being a 50-50 Governor.

A Suffolk University poll just out (link below) has Patrick up 41-34-14 on Baker and Cahill.  They have Patrick at a positive 48-43 favorability.  His job approval is slightly underwater at 44-46, but that's nearly break-even and far better than most Democratic Governors in trouble right now.  His "deserves reelect" is at a poor 39-52, but when pushed on who they actually vote for, respondents still pick Patrick over the others by a healthy margin.

http://www.suffolk.edu/images/...

Meanwhile, Rasmussen a few days ago had Patrick up 45-42-5 on Baker and Cahill in their latest MA-Gov poll.  That Rasmussen poll has Patrick at 49-50 job approval and 52-46 favorability.  Obama's job approval is at 54-45 in the state.

This all comes after Patrick had lagged in polling for much of last year and early this year.

And yet, without my wanting to take time to detail it all, I can't get over how much the political media keeps talking about Patrick as if he's in the same condition as Corzine was.  They talk about Baker having so much upside and Patrick being in a tenuous position and how brilliant the RGA was to attack Cahill to help Baker.  All this while Patrick shot up from the 30s to the 40s in 3-way trial heats, and now even with Cahill down in Chris Daggett territory......and this is RASMUSSEN giving Patrick consistent leads even with all this!

I actually see Patrick as a bright spot this fall for us.  I hope he can recover his popularity come a 2nd term, which I increasingly think he's likely to win.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Tue Sep 21, 2010 at 14:39:04 PM UTC