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SSP Daily Digest: 9/2 (Morning Edition)

by: DavidNYC

Thu Sep 02, 2010 at 7:54 AM EDT


  • AR-Sen, AR-01: Bill Clinton is heading back home to Arkansas to do events for Blanche Lincoln (probably not a good use of resources) and Chad Causey (better use of resources). Incidentally, Politico notes that Causey's primary opponent, Tim Wooldridge, still has yet to endorse him. Jeez.
  • DE-Sen: It's official: The Tea Party Express has spooked Mike Castle into going up on the air before the primary, to a six-figure tune. In fact, the Hotline's Jeremy Jacobs has an unusual level of detail on the nature of the buy, noting that "Castle has purchased $113K worth of airtime for Aug. 31 to Sept. 6 in the Salisbury, MD, media market," as well as "$26K worth of time on cable in New Castle County and $42K on radio."
  • NH-Sen: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce is throwing down for a big buy against Paul Hodes. As the Hotline notes, the Chamber's FEC filing says they're spending $1 million, but apparently the buy is for less - a spokesbot will only say that it's "sizable." You can see their ad at the link.
  • AK-Gov: Republican Bill Walker, who held Gov. Sean Parnell to just 50% in the GOP primary while taking 33% himself, is talking to the Alaska Independence Party about filling their ballot line, since the AIP's nominee, Don Wright, has withdrawn from the race. Remember that in 1994, Dem Tony Knowles very narrowly won the gubernatorial race because an AIP candidate split the right-wing vote, taking 13%.
  • FL-Gov: I'm not sure whether these are new names or not, but Alex Sink is trying to stick it to Rick Scott by putting out a list of ten Republican elected officials in central and south Florida who have endorsed her campaign. Speaking of Scott, he's reportedly going to tap state Rep. Jennifer Carroll, an African American legislator from the Jacksonville area, to be his running mate.
  • NM-Gov: Local blog New Mexico FBIHOP has two new ads, one each from Republican Susana Martinez and Dem Diane Denish. NWOTSOTB in either case.
  • AZ-03: Dem Jon Hulburd is hitting noted d-bag Ben Quayle where it hurts: on Christian radio. Politico has the audio of the ad, which of course references TheDirty.com, but NWOTSOTB.
  • CA-47: Ya know, usually when we do an Obama Alert! or a Biden Alert! we're at least a little bit excited at the prospect that the (V)POTUS is doing an event for some Dem or other. But once in a while, it just makes me nervous. This is one of those occasions. Joe Biden is headlining a fundraiser for Rep. Loretta Sanchez in DC on Sept. 15th. I'm thinking a rating change might be in order here soon.
  • MD-01: Dem Frank Kratovil is up with his first ad of the season. NWOTSOTB.
  • NJ-12: The so-called "Emergency Committee for Israel," led by jerkass extraordinaire Michael Goldfarb and backed by lunatics like Bill Kristol and Gary Bauer, is now targeting Rep. Rush Holt with their latest bullshit. Holt, for his part, is fighting back, calling the ads "blatant lies" and trying to convince cable companies to pull them.
  • ND-AL: A break for Rep. Earl Pomeroy: The House's Office of Congressional Ethics said earlier this week that they were dropping an investigation into Pomeroy's fundraising practices.
  • NY-01: If anything saves Tim Bishop's bacon, it might be the fact that the Republican primary has been a festering pit of raw sewage, with outraged attacks traded among Bishop's GOP rivals daily - or more often. In fact, the three-way nature of the race seems to have tripled the likelihood of open warfare at any given moment - and it also makes things damn confusing at times. Anyhow, it looks like Chris Cox is hitting Randy Altschuler for failing to show up to a debate... but then the third dude, George Demos, also had a staffer show up at Altschuler's offices and catch him on camera, right when the debate was supposed to start. Meanwhile, Cox also won a court ruling allowing him to fight Altschuler for the Conservative Party nomination, but he'll have to run as a write-in.
  • NY-13: Another nasty New York primary also continues to get nastier. Local establishment fave Michael Allegretti keeps piling on attacks against Mike Grimm, the golden boy of national GOP figures like Rudy Giuliani and John McCain. Among other things, Allegretti is pointing out that Grimm has never voted in a single Republican primary in the 13th CD.
  • OH-17: Jim Traficant got beamed back on to the ballot yesterday, running as an independent. He'll face Dem Rep. Tim Ryan and Republican Jim Graham, who has raised bupkes.
  • PA-15: PA2010 is reporting that Dem John Callahan is going up on the air with his first ad, perhaps as early as today. NWOTSOTB, and we also don't have a link to the ad yet, but we'll try to bring it to you once it's public.
  • TX-23: Republican Quico Canseco is refusing to meet with the editorial board of the San Antonio Express-News, claiming they have an "inherent bias" in favor of Dem Rep. Ciro Rodriguez. Only problem: The paper endorsed the last two Republicans who ran against Ciro.
  • WI-07: Republican Sean Duffy is finally scrambling on to the air with a positive bio spot. Dem Julie Lassa was up with her first ad last week, and the DCCC made its first independent expenditure (anywhere in the nation) here earlier this week. NWOTSOTB, though CQ notes the ad will air "in the Wausau-Rhinelander, Duluth-Superior, Minneapolis-St. Paul and LaCrosse-Eau Claire markets".

  • WV-03: Republican Spike Maynard is out with a new ad (watch it here) in which he says he wants to "stop the Obama-Rahall-Pelosi war on coal." That a serious mouthful, dude. (James Hell sez: "He should add Rand Paul to the list!") Anyhow, props to the Charleston Daily Mail for these details: "The ad is the first of two ads that will be released by Maynard's campaign as part of a $100,000 ad buy in the Beckley-Bluefield and Charleston-Huntington TV markets."
  • For Nick Rahall's part, he's apparently going to go on the radio with biographical spots to "familiarize folks with the congressman and his record." Uh, the guy has been in office since before I was born. The paper also reports that Rahall "is expected to run TV ads starting in late September." Can't say I love that pace.

  • Cat Fud: Think Progress has carefully stacked up an entire pallet's worth of cat fud tins in one of those lovely supermarket displays. They've assembled a long list of Republican primary losers who have refused to endorse the winners. I can think of two more off the top of my head: Pamela Gorman, who didn't want to catch Ben Quayle's cooties in AZ-03, and of course Lisa Murkowski, who maybe kinda sorta doesn't feel all that warmly about the guy who just called her a whore (or a john, take your pick) before the ballot counting was even over. Recall any others?
  • DSCC/DCCC: This is actually the same link that I got all emo about in that CA-47 item up above, but anyhow, uh, Obama Alert! The POTUS will be in NYC on September 22nd to do a joint event for the two congressional party committees.
  • DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 9/2 (Morning Edition)
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    That ugly forecast
    Indeed it is Sabato. House down 47, Senate  down 8/9, Governor down 8. And that is meant to be conservative. Maybe I've suddenly become very poor at this but for the life of me even trying to be pessimistic I can't get anywhere near those.

    http://www.centerforpolitics.o...


    I don't understand...
    ...why all the prognosticators INSIST on tossups going to the GOP...  That's basically how they are getting their numbers here.  Every tossup seat going to the GOP Senate and House.  that is a failed assumption.

    [ Parent ]
    I mean he's got...
    Reid losing, Giullianas losing, Feingold losing, etc.  There is no statistical basis for that assumption.

    [ Parent ]
    I actually think
    that may be a pretty good assumption.  I'd say the vast majority of SSP-rated tossups will go Republican.  I still can't get to 47 seats though, even making that assumption.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    [ Parent ]
    I looked at Charlie Cook's
    Final table in both 2006 and 2008. In both cases about 50% of the tossups went in either direction.

    [ Parent ]
    That's really interesting and hopeful.
    History usually repeats itself.  Seems lots of people convince themselves that the times they're living in are unique, when they're usually not.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    [ Parent ]
    Big caveat
    Being those are the tossups in the final table. Plenty time to move several of them to leans before election day. Anyway, going by that same Cook split I make it less than 30.

    http://www.cookpolitical.com/c...


    [ Parent ]
    But
    Cook always said that he is very reluctant to have sitting congressman leaning towards take-over before labor-day. You'll begin now to see waves of toss-ups moving to lean-GOP and lean dems becoming toss-ups.

    I agree though this is about as bad as I expect it to get for the dems. It's been said everyday for the last 12 months but I do think GOP fortunes have peaked and we may see a slght dem recovery, yet I think we will continue to see a further degrading of dem standing in individual races as the national mood begins to catch up with individual candidates.


    [ Parent ]
    Yes I meant to say that
    The tossup column will get bigger certainly.

    [ Parent ]
    I can get there
    and what worries me is I don't see any potential great news coming down the pike to change the dynamic in the next two months.

    [ Parent ]
    Some of us are more pessimistic than others
    This is positive. Well, at least not more negative.

    http://thepage.time.com/2010/0...


    [ Parent ]
    Not only that
    But he has about 7 of the lean Dems switching.  And he has PA-8 more vulnerable than PA-10, which I just don't get.  Sabato has been good, but he has a few head scratchers.

    [ Parent ]
    PA-8 is more vulnerable than PA-10
    I do not understand why people are so PVI obsessed and refuse to look at other factors.  If you take other factors into account, PA-8 is substantially more vulnerable for several reasons:

    1)  On the local and state level, PA-8 is a more Republican district.  A greater percentage of state reps and state senators in PA-8 are Republicans compared to PA-10.  A greater percentage of local governments are controlled by Republicans in PA-8 than in PA-10.  Actually a majority of local governments in PA-10 are controlled by the Democrats whereas only a small sliver of PA-8 is controlled by the Democrats at the local level.

    2)  The quality of the challengers in both districts matters significantly.  Mike Fitzpatrick won PA-8 by around 10 points in 2004 and lost it by around 1,500 votes in 2006. He was a Bucks County Commissioner for two terms, which actually means something seeing he was elected by 90 percent of the district twice before running for Congress.  Tom Marino's electoral experience is limited to being Lycoming County DA, a county that does not even cover 25% of the district.

    3)  I think some on here are failing to realize it, but PA-8 is very similar to the areas of Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Virginia that swung heavily from Democrats to Republicans in the off year elections.  This factor is the factor I think many are refusing to take into account.  The statistics are clear. The people who are swinging against the Democrats are located in outer suburban and exurban areas.  

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7


    [ Parent ]
    Re:
    Why wouldn't the same hold true in the more rural district of PA-10?  Plus, PA-8 Republican-leaning independents are more moderate than ones in PA-10.  While you have a point regarding the opponent, Fitzpatrick also has the disadvantage of not being seen as a fresh face.  More of a retread.  

    I guess we'll have to agree to disagree on this one.


    [ Parent ]
    Local trends matter...
    I really do not understand why many commentators on here focus so much on the national trends, but ignore the local trends in many of these races.  If you look at the local trends, Republicans loses in Pennsylvania in 2006 and 2008 were predictable.  In every seat the Democrats picked up in 2006 or 2008 in Pennsylvania, the local Democrats made gains in the corresponding 2005 or 2007 local and judicial races.  If you look at the 2009 races, the Republicans really only gained territory back from the Democrats in a few areas.  They recaptured some local councils in PA-7 and PA-8, but lost ground in PA-10 and PA-3.  In fact, the Republicans reversed many of their 2005 loses in these areas.  Everywhere else was practically a wash.  Many fell into this trap with PA-12, which is not going to flip and never will flip.  Everyone was so scared because they saw the PVI and a few polls, but ignored the basic fact the area seems to love Democrats in general.  The Republican performance at the local level has been a disaster in the area and saw no corresponding improvement in the previous local or state elections.

    In terms of rural performance, the Democrats have done pretty well in rural areas since 2008.  The House special elections in rural areas have went well for the Democrats.  There has not been a swing against the Democrats like there has been in suburban and exurban areas.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7


    [ Parent ]
    Senate
    prediction is crazy. I guess he's thinking the stars will align for Republicans and Boxer, Murray, and Feingold are going down in November. I'm not discounting him, the stars did align for Democrats in 2006 and 2008, but we always lost a few competitive races (TN 2006, GA 2008, MS 2008) anyway. California is dependent upon how much Fiorina is willing to self fund and how much the NRSC/527's are willing to match. Though from what I could see right now, the NRSC/527's will probably put the bulk of their money into the LA media market.

    19, Male, Independent, CA-12

    [ Parent ]
    Money Isn't Everything
    "California is dependent upon how much Fiorina is willing to self fund and how much the NRSC/527's are willing to match."

    The track record of self-funders in general is not good. Once you have enough money to run a thorough campaign, additional dollars have diminishing returns. (Michael Huffington spent $28 million against Feinstein in 1994 and lost.)

    Boxer had $11 million cash on hand as of the end of June, and had already raised more than she did her entire last cycle. That's not to say it might not be a close race, or even that she would win, but there's a point at which still more money won't be the determining factor.


    [ Parent ]
    Also I think e-Meg will be single handedly funding the GOP GOTV effort in CA
    Fiorina can send less on her GOTV opperations because I am sure she can outsource them to Meg Whitman.

    Meg has the money to make sure every every registered Republican in CA gets an absentee ballot form, letter and phone call reminding them to vote.

    Heck she could probably pay for their cab fare to the polls.

    Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
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    [ Parent ]
    Nah,
    She could probably pay for a limo to take them to the polls.  

    [ Parent ]
    I really don't understand where he gets his numbers from
    If you split tossups between parties, the Senate pickups match, but not the House pickups (in that case, Republicans would pick up about 25-30 seats; they'd have to win every single tossup to get to his 47 number).

    For what it's worth, his actual rankings look pretty solid; there are only a few that I would have major issues with. I don't see Kirkpatrick as more vulnerable than the other Arizona Dems -- if anything, I'd put Mitchell (who's in a rematch with a guy he only beat by 9 in 2008) as most vulnerable. I'm also amazed he has Tim Bishop and John Hall as Likely D, considering the mountains of cash the Republicans have, and they're both in pretty swingy districts. Bean and Etheridge don't seem to be in any trouble, either.


    [ Parent ]
    Shea-Porter
    Leans Republican when she was up in the last independent poll. Kirkpatrick has a huge financial advantage. Bright, Minnick and Kissell are clearly better off than some of the other tossups. Indeed, give all the tossups to the GOP and you still only get to 35. And that doesn't include the possibility of Dem wins in Delaware, Louisiana, Hawaii and perhaps Illinois. Then again, past experience tells me he is better at hitting the actual number than at calling individual races.  

    [ Parent ]
    Edit
    My math is terrible. All the tossups going Republican would be 45. Still, they won't win all of them.

    [ Parent ]
    Also
    He has NM-2 as lean R when the polls earlier this week had Teague ahead by 3.

    [ Parent ]
    he may be assuming
    that things will continue to deteriorate for the party in power, so he's extrapolating from there.

    [ Parent ]
    He definitely is
    As I said he has a better record at calling the total number of seats than individual races.

    [ Parent ]
    Keep in mind Sabato, Cook, Rothenberg, et al.
    ... have access to internal polls, which is often what's driving their forecasts more than the public ones.  

    [ Parent ]
    That doesn't change my mind
    Indeed, if they are using internal polls as a benchmark it makes me even less certain of their projections.

    [ Parent ]
    Because that's what happens in a wave
    And in a wave, the topline number is usually more accurate than individual race-by-race rankings. In '06, for example, a 30-seat gain was higher than many people got looking at it race-by-race, and the actual races won and lost were a little surprising.

    I can see how we get to 47, unfortunately. Where we're really tanking is the (greater) Midwest. It's completely plausible that we lose, say, 4 in PA, 3 in OH, 2 in IN, 2 in MI, 1 in WI, 1 in IA, 1 in MO, 2 in IL, etc.

    As for the Senate, I think only five seats definitely are solid or likely Republican at this point: ND, AR, IN, DE, and PA. I see CO, NV, and IL as tossups, with the latter two leaning over-so-slightly Dem. And I see WI, WA, and CA as leaning Dem. But if there really is a wave, expect at least 2/3 of the second group to go Republican, and expect that at least 1 or CA, WA, and WI would probably go too.

    Again, things could tighten again. We may have hit a nadir in August. Indeed, Obama's approval ratings has inched up in recent days, and maybe that's the start of something sustained, not just a blip. So I'm not writing off our chances by any means. But Sabato's forecast does illustrate that, yes, things are REALLY BAD right now for Dems.  


    [ Parent ]
    Add WV to your list
    That last poll in WV should scare Dems.

    I think the 4 lean Dem races that could swing the Senate are WV, CA, WI and WA.

    If IL, CO and NV break to the GOP then they need only 2 of the 4 to get to 51. One of the 4 would give you a 50/50 split with Biden as the tie breaker (unless Lieberman or Nelson get cute).

    Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
    http://searchmfr.swagbucks.com...


    [ Parent ]
    Using the Gallup model
    http://www.gallup.com/poll/124...

    A 47 seat loss suggests a 6 point difference in generic ballot, but that's +/- 11 seats.

    If 47 seats are lost, I think that will include maybe a dozen seats of House members who may be seen as

    the Coakley kids


    [ Parent ]
    We're at a 6 point difference now...
    If you look at the TPM average...

    [ Parent ]
    Pretty sure Sabato
    had an orgasm while writing this one up.  He's been waiting in breathless anticipation for the big Republican wave for awhile.

    The prediction of 47 House seats, 8-9 Senate seats, and 8 governors, while not wildly over-the-top, seems to be based on an assumption that things will get even better for the Republicans than they are now.  My sense is that they've peaked and that things will tighten a little or least flatline into November, but who knows.  Presidential approval and generic ballot averages are FINALLY starting to flatten out after over a month of Republican gains.

    http://politicalwire.com/archi...

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


    Senate
    "The seat switches are probably coming in Arkansas, Colorado, Delaware (but only if the eventual GOP nominee is Rep. Mike Castle), Indiana, North Dakota, and Pennsylvania. We expect Republicans to pick off at least a couple of these states: California, Illinois, Nevada, Washington, and Wisconsin."

    I'm willing to go as far as 7 now but Colorado looks like it should be in the second category and I don't think Pennsylvania should be written off just yet, perhaps not even Delaware and Indiana.


    [ Parent ]
    I'm going to post Senate predictions today or tomorrow
    I have 6 going down (AR, CO, DE, IN, ND, PA) with no Dem pickups at the moment, so I can't say 8 or 9 is crazy.  You're right.  The only complete write-offs right now are AR and ND.  IN is getting there though, and DE may or may not be depending on how Castle fares in the primary.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    [ Parent ]
    Sure
    I don't expect IN and DE to come back but Coats and Castle only ever poll at 50% so I'm not completely discounting the possibility of tightening if and when Ellsworth and Coons get better known.

    [ Parent ]
    PA
    I'll believe Toomey's ahead if he still has a lead a month after Sestak starts advertising heavily. I've said this before, but Toomey is nearly as conservative as Ron Paul on economic issues and is a poor fit for Pennsylvania.

    41, Ind, CA-05

    [ Parent ]
    Both Coons and Ellsworth
    need to run the same campaign, paint their opponents as Washington insiders who are part of the problem.

    [ Parent ]
    why do you think they've peaked?
    I don't expect some fantastic jobs report to swing the momentum in our direction.

    [ Parent ]
    Campaigns and candidates


    [ Parent ]
    How many Ds are on the air?
    I get the vague impression that few Ds have even started to advertise.

    While it worries me that R campaigns are defining major races, D campaign kickoffs can bring things back.


    [ Parent ]
    Exactly
    Digest after digest reports first ads going up. This will drive turnout and get lethargic Dems interested. Not enough to stop a wave but enough to save a number of seats.

    [ Parent ]
    This is the key
    And within the next month, we'll start to see how much of a difference this is making.

    That's why I refuse to say we're going to lose the house. at this point. The Dems cash advantage is a big variable, as well as the quality of Republican candidates.  


    [ Parent ]
    I'm not saying there's going to be some huge swing
    back to the Democrats based on some external event like that.  I just think there's going to be stasis or perhaps a slight tightening because Dems have more money and saner candidates.  I don't expect things to get a lot better, I just don't really expect them to get worse either.

    If you look at the graphs on the front page of pollster.com, things are starting to flatten out after a long and pretty steep trend towards the Republicans.  

    We got some decent economic news yesterday from the manufacturing reports, but I don't think there's time for the economy to turn around in any way that will register with voters.  

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


    [ Parent ]
    August nadir
    Also look at the generic ballot graph this time last year when it picked back up after that terrible recess. And also see the link upthread regarding the drop in unemployment claims.

    [ Parent ]
    Not just last year...
    2008, 2006, 2004... August is just a terrible month for Democrats, and we do much better after labor day.

    [ Parent ]
    I'm not sure you can say August 2006 was a terrible month for Dems
    They had some pretty big leads that month

    http://www.pollingreport.com/2...


    [ Parent ]
    The deus ex machina
    we're looking for is obviously the Osama-Bin-Laden-in-a-closet scenario that we were always afraid Bush would pull in '06 or '08. In my happiest daydreams, David Plouffe has the keys to said closet and is just waiting for the moment.

    Actually, I do wonder how much this would be worth given that people's concerns have shifted rather decisively away from wars in dusty places and towards ensuring that their children not be raised on dog food.

    From MO-3, college in CT-3, lived in NH-1, NH-2, PA-2, and MA-8 in the 3 years since.


    [ Parent ]
    You know, one thing to focus on...
    Instead of saying things that aren't quite true like "Dems have a bad August every cycle" or "the pundits always hate the Dems", we might want to look two the bigger real differences between this election cycle and previous cycles, mainly:

    1). Republicans are at a nadir of their popularity. People don't like Democrats, but the polls show they like Republicans even less. This is the point Kos always drives home, and he's correct. If anything saves the Dems in 2010, it will be the unpopularity of their opponents. Republicans are much more unpopular this year than in 1994 (in fairness, the Dems are more unpopular as well).

    2). The Dems do have a big cash advantage, particularly with the House. They don't always have that (they did in 2008, but before that you would probably have to back to 1994 where the Dems had this advantage).

    So there are some potential silver linings.  


    [ Parent ]
    We may not have
    Rick Lazio to kick around in November.  Q-poll looks pretty damn good for Paladino, although he's behind.

    http://politicalwire.com/archi...

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


    Senate
    28% DioGuardi
    12% Malpass
    10% Blakeman

    [ Parent ]
    I think Lazio will eek it out
    There's just not enough of a Tea Party faction within the NY GOP for Paladino to prevail (well, that is, unless turn-out is insanely low). I imagine Paladino can pull into the 40s, but Lazio's too popular among the rank-and-file to not win, methinks.

    Looks like DioGuardi will win on name recognition. My guess is Schneiderman wins the Dem primary, given his base (NYC) is the largest.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


    [ Parent ]
    Malpass
    Has moved up a lot. He was always polling around 5. I think he can pull it out, just b/c of money and NY Post. The number of undecideds in that race (and the AG race) still is ridiculous.  

    [ Parent ]
    Just look like noise to me.
    Ras has had it within a few points of even on either side for a long time.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    [ Parent ]
    That AZ-03 Ad
    I like how the narrator doesn't bother introducing herself, and just starts in with the "I" and the royal "we" without staking out any credentials whatsoever.

    But the content of the ad?  Um, does Hulburd support censoring the internet?


    Rob Portman leads
    45-38% over Lee Fisher via ppp.

    Shows that Portman
    doesn't have the support that Kasich does at this point.  

    [ Parent ]
    I suspect Portman as ex-"trade rep"
    is more susceptible to an "anti-Bush" message than Kasich.

    [ Parent ]
    Also, Fisher has done nothing wrong
    Strickland might be losing some normally D-leaning voters because of the condition of the state's economy, which is not necessarily his fault but has declined precipitously during his term. Fisher is pretty generic at this point and it's harder to tie him to the state's economic troubles, so he's probably doing a better job at holding the base.

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

    [ Parent ]
    Or
    you know, maybe just the fact that 40% of the people don't know who Portman or Fisher are yet.

    [ Parent ]
    heh
    I keep forgetting that the average person isn't a political junkie like the people on SSP. But it's still shocking that in a high profile senate race there are so many undecideds at this point.

    [ Parent ]
    Not substantive
    Is this really a substantive difference as its within the margin of error.  Both races are lean Republican.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    Looks ugly but is it a wave?
    While this news is unfortunate to hear and we many of us may not want to hear it I still have a hard time seeing how this will come to fruition. Major losses are going to happen and we could very well lose the House. I truly believe that the GOP has not acted in good faith to try and help fix the economy that they helped to wreck and the result of a GOP House would be a disaster in exhibiting that obstruction works. Many of the losses can be attributed to Pelosi forcing tough votes by the members and then the Senate totally killing any debate about it (ie Energy). Reasons why I believe 47 seats is too high.
    1) Where are the multitude of easy open seats and scandalized seats? I count at most 15 seats for them that are open seats in friendly territory or scandalized (Massa's).
    2) Not every toss up is going to the GOP. Do I see Leonard Boswell losing after revelations that his opponent is a woman beater? Things like this begin to shake out during the campaign and question the electability of their opponent. Dems are not popular but the GOP is about as unpopular now as well. They aren't a great alternative to many.
    3) The biggest pill to swallow besides the fact that obstruction works is that many good solid Dems are going to lose their seats due to several members grandstanding and holding up issues (paging the gang of 6, Cornhusker Kickback, Louisiana Purchase and Bart Stupak). Guys like Martin Heinrich, Tom Perriello, John Boccieri and Patrick Murphy could be future faces of the party and are fighting for their lives in part because of those bozos failing to govern.
    4) I am predicting a loss of about 32-35 seats barely enough for a majority and if people like Bobby Bright and Walt Minnick survive we are going to hear them and centrist Republicans like Jim Gerlach, Charlie Dent, Dave Reichert and Frank Wolf way too much!

    28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

    Okay, in fairness
    Brad Zaun, Leonard Boswell's opponent, was never charged with being a woman beater. He was never charged with anything. The police were called after he was yelling outside his ex-girlfriends house.  

    [ Parent ]
    Agree but...
    That is totally true and we know that but as we are aware of most voters are very low information and only hear that police were called after he went irate at his ex-girlfriends house. That narrative in itself is pretty damning to Zaun. Is he really going to explain that he was only yelling and was never charged? He is going to try and ignore the story. How many voters despite obvious facts think that there are death panels in the Health Care bill or that Financial Reform is designed to create a permanent bailout? All you need are some sound bites and then run with them unfortunately.  

    28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

    [ Parent ]
    New House polls out
    All from the conservative American Action Forum.

    AZ-01
    Gosar 47% ( R)
    Kilpatrick 41% (D)

    (I saw a commenter above wondering why Sabato thought this race might flip. Guess this could be)

    AZ-05
    Schweikert 50% (R)
    Mitchell 44% (D)

    CO-O3
    Tipton 51% (R)
    Salazar 43% (D)

    CO-04
    Gardner 50% (R)
    Markey 39% (D)

    NM-01
    Martin Heinrich is up 7 points over Jon Barela.

    OR-05
    Kurt Schrader, the Dem, is up 8 points over Scott Bruun.

    AZ-08
    Gifford 46% (D)
    Kelly 46% (R)

    NV-03:
    Titus three points behind

    CA-11
    McNerney at 44%, and in a "virtual tie" with attorney David Harmer

    CA-47
    Sanchez 45% (D)
    Tran 43% (R)

    And DavidNYC might have a reason to be concerned...

    http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/ey...

    28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26


    Believable except CO-3
    Those numbers are actually somewhat reasonable except CO-3.  The Salazar name is like gold on the Western Slope.  Now if Salazar was not running, the Republicans would easily win that seat.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    Looking at the gross-level methodology
    I call bull on CO-04.  Now, maybe Gardner IS leading by some indefinite number.  But it's less than this, because two heavy-right leaning candidates also made the ballot--one as an indie and the other as the Constitution Party candidate.  Say they each draw 2%: Cory's lead goes down to 46-39.  Not good, but less hideous...and Tancredo will be leading the ACP ticket, methinks leading to more than average gadfly numbers (more than my 2% out of my rear guess).

    30, male, Democratic, CO-01

    [ Parent ]
    Where are the polls on our side?
    To match these partisan, flood the field, polls.

    [ Parent ]
    NV-03
    Because this race could play spoiler in the Senate election in Nevada, I looked up Harry Reid's favorables on this poll (-12), and Angle's (-15)

    28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

    [ Parent ]
    Giffords
    Hard time seeing tea bagger Casey Kelly who is very underfunded and is seen as being to the far right of Randy Graf (Giffords opponent in 2006) being tied with her. She has relatively stable favorability ratings and her district only seems more red when you consider that McCain was on the ballot in 2008. Giffords is likely to run for Senate if Kyl retires in 2012 and is even money to challenge him. If she leaves her seat Rodney Glassman could run for her old seat.  

    28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

    [ Parent ]
    Jesse Kelley
    Casey Kelley is the top pitching prospect in the Red Sox farm system. A good name to know regardless!

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

    [ Parent ]
    My bad
    Isn't Casey also a football player too?  

    28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

    [ Parent ]
    worth checking the demographics
    Because the American Action Forum's IA-03 poll was way off on the demographics--oversampled men, seniors and independents, undersampled women, people under 35 and Democrats.

    [ Parent ]
    I don't know
    what a baseline for the results should look like.

    This website has the results:
    http://americanactionforum.org...

    28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26


    [ Parent ]
    All over the place
    One GOP poll has Schrader well down while here he is up. They had Perriello in touching distance while SurveyUSA has him being crushed. Meanwhile SurveyUSA had Heinrich in a tie while this poll and two others have him up significantly. I don't really know what to think.

    [ Parent ]
    Markey might be down
    but 39% of the vote? Not with Hickenlooper at the top of the ticket.

    And Giffords and Kelly tied? What, did they only poll Cochise County? Americans for Prosperity has been carpet-bombing the district, but we've also seen lots of the Gifford ad with the clip of Jesse Kelly saying that he wants to "phase out" social security. Additionally, the Arizona Tourism Alliance has been running a good ad, (NWOTSOTB, though I've seen it several times in the last few days), supporting Giffords.

    22, Democrat, AZ-01
    Peace. Love. Gabby.


    [ Parent ]
    Anyone want to hear Christine
    O'Donnell?

    Absolutely hilarious...

    http://www.wgmd.com/?p=9496

    28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26



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