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SSP Daily Digest: 8/16 (Afternoon Edition)

by: Crisitunity

Mon Aug 16, 2010 at 3:13 PM EDT


CO-Sen: Ken Buck twisted himself into a knot that's unlikely to satisfy anyone. After it came out that, about a year ago, he'd announced his support for the repeal of the 17th Amendment (which allows for direct election of Senators, and should alarm any non-teabagger), on Friday he clarified that, no, he's changed his mind and supports the 17th now (which should piss off any teabagger). While several House GOP candidates have touted the idea, Buck is the first Senate candidate to discuss why it's a good idea for people to vote for him so he can go to Washington and take away their right to vote... for him.

FL-Sen: There's one more Florida poll to add to the growing pile; it's only of the Democratic Senate primary, though, and it's from Republican pollster Susquehanna on behalf of online media outlet Sunshine State News. They join in the chorus seeing Kendrick Meek pulling away from Jeff Greene, 45-30.

PA-Sen: Joe Sestak's getting some support from an unexpected place: Michael Bloomberg, the loudly post-partisan New York mayor. Bloomberg, who'll stump on Sestak's behalf in Pennsylvania tomorrow, seems to like Sestak's efforts on better lending for small businesses. Another bright spot for Sestak: Green Party candidate Mel Packer is dropping out of the Senate race, not seeming able to withstand the pending court challenge to his petitions from the Sestak camp.

AL-Gov: With friends like Artur Davis, who needs enemies? The ostensibly Democratic Rep., who seems to have gotten consumed with bile after his surprising yet thorough loss to Ron Sparks in the Democratic gubernatorial primary, published an op-ed in the Montgomery Advertiser yesterday titled "A lack of vision" that said that Sparks is "no champion of real change." The key quote: "In a break with tradition, I did not attend that [unity] event and will not be campaigning for the Democratic gubernatorial nominee." But really: read the whole thing, especially if you still had any shreds of respect left for Davis.

CA-Gov: You know that saying about how if you want to experience the sense of yachting, just go stand in the shower with your clothes on and keep continuously flushing money down the toilet? I wonder if Meg Whitman is starting to get that sense about her own campaign and its nine figures worth of out-of-pocket sunk costs. She just wrote herself another $13 million check, saying that she had to throw down more because of the nerve of those unions and their insistence on using independent expenditures.

IA-Gov: You might remember the gadflyish Jonathan Narcisse, a former Des Moines school board member and alternative newspaper publisher who'd made some motions about challenging Chet Culver in the Dem primary. Well, now he's back, and he's planning to mount an independent bid instead. He claims to have enough signatures to qualify, and despite his ostensibly left-of-center orientation claims to be getting a lot of interest from disgruntled Bob Vander Plaats supporters looking for an option to Terry Branstad.

LA-Gov: In case there was any doubt, Bobby Jindal confirmed that he'll be running for re-election for Governor in 2011. That makes a 2012 presidential run seem less likely, given the quick turnaround, but he's young enough that he needn't hurry.

MS-01: Travis Childers is out with his second ad in as many weeks, this one a negative spot against Alan Nunnelee (although self-narrated by Childers, rather than using the usual grainy black-and-white photos and angry-sounding voice of doom like most negative ads). Childers hits Nunnelee for raising various taxes while in the state legislature.

NH-01: Frank Guinta, the presumed frontrunner in the GOP primary for the right to face Rep. Carol Shea-Porter, has some good news and bad news. The good news: he seems to have discovered an extra bank account in his name that had somewhere between $250K and $500K in it, which hadn't been on previous disclosure forms because of "an inadvertent oversight." The bad news: now he has to explain where all that money came from, which isn't exactly clear, as Guinta has partially self-funded his run but also done a lot of outside fundraising. This looks serious enough that ex-Rep. Jeb Bradley is calling for Guinta to drop out if he can't provide a credible explanation (although it should be noted that, although Bradley hasn't officially endorsed, he was already informally backing GOP primary rival Sean Mahoney).

NY-06, NY-13: The New York AFL-CIO endorsed all but four New York House incumbents over the weekend: the two Republicans, naturally, but also Reps. Mike McMahon and... Greg Meeks? Turns out they've had a beef with Meeks (who's a bit of a mismatch with his dark-blue district) for a while, going back to his CAFTA vote. So this means they did endorse Mike Arcuri in NY-24, despite his HCR vote and subsequent antipathy from the Working Families Party.

Ohio: We Ask America, an auto-dialing pollster with Republican connections that occasionally pops up with flurries of polls, rolled out three polls of different House races in Ohio last week. They add one more poll to the heap of doom for Rep. Steve Driehaus in OH-01, finding him losing to ex-Rep. Steve Chabot 51-39. They also find Paula Brooks unlikely to prevail in her right-candidate-wrong-year challenge to GOP Rep. Pat Tiberi in OH-12; she trails 51-34. Perhaps most interesting is OH-15, which I believe is the first poll released of this race, which many Dems have mentally written off already. While they have freshman Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy trailing, it's not that bad, in comeback-able range with a 46-41 lead for GOP rematch candidate Steve Stivers.

Stumping: Barack Obama is making a three-state road swing over the next few days, appearing on behalf of three vulnerable Democratic Senate incumbents: Russ Feingold in Wisconsin, Barbara Boxer in California, and Patty Murray in Washington. Meanwhile, Bill Clinton is making three appearances around Florida today on behalf of Hillary-endorsing Kendrick Meek in his Senate primary.

Rasmussen:
CT-Gov: Dan Malloy (D) 48%, Tom Foley (R) 33%
GA-Sen: Michael Thurmond (D) 41%, Johnny Isakson (R-inc) 55%
ME-Gov: Libby Mitchell (D) 30%, Paul LePage (R) 38%, Eliot Cutler (I) 16%
ND-Sen: Tracy Potter (D) 25%, John Hoeven (R) 69%
ND-AL: Earl Pomeroy (D-inc) 44%, Rick Berg (R) 53%

Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 8/16 (Afternoon Edition)
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ND-Sen: What went wrong?
True, Hoeven was always the heavy favorite.  But in DE and IN, the Dems have been able to stay about 10 points behind the Republicans.  Why has Tracy Potter been such a washout?

Hoeven is a very, very strong Republican candidate
In a state that already leans R, despite what the party affiliations of its current Congressional delegation would imply.

By comparison, Dems are fielding a great candidate against an anemic Republican in R-leaning Indiana, and a pretty good candidate against a strong Republican in strongly Democratic Delaware.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09


[ Parent ]
Even if north Dakota was as Democratic
as California, Hoeven would still win in a landslide.  

But I think had Dorgan ran again, he would have been more competitive than people think, because North Dakota is a small state that needs its pork, and Dorgan's seniority would have meant something there.  


[ Parent ]
In North Dakota
 There seems to be a large number of "person not party" voters. Also, certain politicians are very familiar with voters so voters support them.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  


[ Parent ]
what went wrong
Hoeven got in the race. I don't think it's possible for anyone but a popular sitting senator to be competitive against a governor with an 84% approval rating.  

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
Holy cow
Eat a bag of dicks, Artur Davis. Seriously, what an effin' jerk. Not only is the tiny shred of respect I had for Davis gone (and that was mostly because he managed to unite black & white Alabama Democrats ... in rejecting him), but if he ever runs for office again, I will donate to whomever his opponent is, even if it's a friggin' Republican.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

Maybe
Maybe an evil sorceror put a curse on Artur Davis such that by taking away the "h" from his name he turned Davis evil.  Maybe what we need to do is find and return the "h" to Davis in order to turn him good again. :-)

[ Parent ]
I'm wondering if this all prelude...
To him actually becoming a Republican

[ Parent ]
It would make sense if he did.
He would have a much better chance at a career statewide in GA if he became a Republican.

However I think he sees the writing on the wall this cycle and and is angling for a job in Bentley administration.

Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
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[ Parent ]
Wrong State
Davis is from Alabama.

Also, it's a bit far-fetched to say he'd have a better chance at a statewide career as a Republican in Alabama since Democrats still do fairly well on the state level.

Davis is not a Conservative Democrat or even a moderate, so I doubt he'd be welcomed into the party and then pushed into the spotlight.

We're not talking about someone like Bobby Bright that is truly conservative.


[ Parent ]
Davis is from
the Douchebag Wing of the Democratic Party.

And if you think he's a liberal, I don't know too many liberals who are horny for charter schools.


[ Parent ]
Or ...
Generally speaking, liberals also don't vote against health care, complain about the scourge of gambling, masturbate with a gun, and poke gay people in the eyes every chance they get.

Basically, if Artur Davis is a liberal, then most of the people on this site are friggin' Communists. [note: most of us are not Communists]

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


[ Parent ]
Well rural dem's
idea of a liberal Democrat is anyone to left of Zell Miller. So no doubt, Davis is quite liberal.  

[ Parent ]
No
Thanks for the assumption though.

[ Parent ]
Um
Wow.

Thanks for the rhetoric, but I'm fairly certain that Davis would have been considered a liberal before running for Governor.

In fact, that was a large criticism from plenty of liberal Democrats in Alabama.

Which, I guess if you want to only focus on his Gubernatorial bid, you can call him whatever you want.


[ Parent ]
You don't know what you are talking about
Davis has been one of the most conservative members of congress for some time now, angling for a statewide job obviously. He's been planning this for a decade now, and he's a little bitter that he overwhelmingly lost white Democrats and Black Democrats in Alabama because of his grandstanding on important issues.  

[ Parent ]
Oh
Alright, thanks for the info.

[ Parent ]
Well going back to 2007
Artur Davis, despite his district's lean, was among the 40 or so most conservative Democrats with a conservative rating of 38.7 in National Journal's ratings.

Progressive Punch is a bit better though, and his lifetime score with them was 84.16%, which put him at rank 183rd in the house, and I don't know whether that includes his rightward tack this legislative session.


[ Parent ]
Nonsense
Davis has been one of the most conservative Democratic Members of Congress, but he is far more progressive than any Republican.

[ Parent ]
Huh?
Davis:

NO on HCR I
NO on HCR II
YES on Stupak-Pitts
NO on Waxman-Markey

There is nothing "moderate" about the Stupak-Pitts Amendment. In the past, he's called for the end of the gun ban in Washington and has supported the marriage amendment. Seems pretty conservative to me...

Whatever, even if we disagree on his voting record, he's a douche and has no future in elected politics.

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan


[ Parent ]
I think he meant
Moderate in terms of an Alabama Democrat (which would be pretty conservative for my standards)

Male 21 Dem Ca's 1st  

[ Parent ]
I think he meant
Moderate in terms of an Alabama Democrat (which would be pretty conservative for my standards)

Male 21 Dem Ca's 1st  

[ Parent ]
Uh, no
I won't presume to know what RuralDem meant, but Davis ran to the right of Sparks, who is basically dead-center in terms of Alabama Democrats. Therefore, Davis is at the very least a fairly conservative Democrat, if not a full-on conservaDem. And he's got the voting record to prove it.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
Ok
Sparks is a centrist. Davis ran to the right of Sparks, only because he was running for Governor.

What I was trying to say is that BEFORE he started running for Governor, he was fairly liberal. He only shifted in order to have a chance in the Primary, and it backfired because everyone knew he was pandering.


[ Parent ]
The evidence supports user RuralDem
per http://www.progressivepunch.or...

Davis had a "lifetime" "crucial vote" score of 70 -- but the same score in this Congress was a 33. (His overall score is 84 lifetime; 86 in this Congress)


[ Parent ]
Thanks
I appreciate the link. For some reason I was looking on Vote Smart for it.

[ Parent ]
Agreed
What I was trying to say is that BEFORE he started running for Governor, he was fairly liberal.

....that I agree with, although I'm sure we probably have different defintions of "fairly liberal."  :)   I would definitely agree that in his first term or two (when he was trying to consolidate support in a deep blue district) he was certainly more liberal than in his later terms (when he had his eye on higher office).  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


[ Parent ]
That's
All I was trying to say, hence the reason I made the comment about Bobby Bright.

Bright's known as a conservative and would probably be welcomed with open arms into the Alabama GOP.

Davis, on the other hand, shifted to run for Governor, and at this point I doubt the GOP would welcome him with open arms.


[ Parent ]
I dunno,
I think Bright joined the Democratic party because he wanted to be able to vote however he wanted and not have to put up with any shit. He didn't want to compromise himself by having to become rabidly conservative enough to have a chance at appealing to Republican voters in a contested primary. He pretty much didn't want to be teabagged and wanted to be in the majority party to get government money for his district; those are the only reasons he choose to run as a Democrat.  

[ Parent ]
Well
I know why he ran as a Democrat, I've mentioned it on here a few times before. They agreed to let him vote independently, while the GOP wanted more party loyalty.

Still, he's crafted such a record during his tenure as Mayor, and as a Congressman, that I think he'd be more accepted into the GOP than Artur Davis.


[ Parent ]
The GOP establishment
would welcome Artur Davis with open arms.  A major black Democrat switching parties in the age of Obama?  You can't buy that kind of news.

The rank and file are a different story.


[ Parent ]
The GOP establishment might welcome him
But he could never win a Rethug primary.

[ Parent ]
There's another possibility
that Artur Davis was pretty conservative all along, but represented a very Democratic black majority district, so he had to go vote somewhat liberal to survive there.  A conservative Democrat may probably face a tough primary in Ala-7 and earn the wrath of the Birmingham Alabama black establishment.

The traditional explanation is he is a liberal who moved right to get elected Governor.

Davis is enough of political chameleon that it is really hard to tell, IMO, which explanation is actually true.


[ Parent ]
Kinda sounds like it
He says he's not endorsing Bentley's campaign because "he's doing well enough without me."  I wasn't as negative on Davis as some were here, but that ends now.  When you choose to run as a Democrat (or a Republican, for that matter) and lose in a primary, I think you have to have very, very good reasons not to support the party nominee.  

[ Parent ]
Yes
Look at Romanoff. He was really great about his loss. All you really have to do is say I support this candidate and hope they win in November and then bash the other parties nominee. You don't have to campaign hard or at all really but keep your fucking mouth shut and ponder if you want to make a comeback. Geez.    

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
And I hope Romanoff
has a bright future in the State Department.  

[ Parent ]
That whole article
is Davis publicly giving Bentley a blueprint for how to run against Starks- and doing so In Your Face to the Alabama party establishment.

I sadly suspect the Alabama DP is approaching its day of crashing out.  This is the sort of thing tends to be indicative of middle or late stages of breaking up.


[ Parent ]
Arcuri/Meeks
Why shouldn't they endorse Arcuri?  It's pretty simple:  he didn't support the corporate friendly Baucus bill while Meeks supported the job killing and wage draining CAFTA.  See the difference?

Yeah, Im glad you spelled it out
They at least get that if his re-election isnt on the line, he'll be reliable, hence the first vote.  So they'll help make him get re-elected and he'll vote more in their favor by building up safety through incumbency.

[ Parent ]
I would say because Meeks is a crook....
but they did endorse Rangel!

Well not fair because I think Rangel is getting a bit of a bad rap and there are members of congress who have done things way worse than Rangel's misdemeanors. I mean Meeks fake Katrina charity and free house is pretty much beyond the pale of ethical breaches as far as I'm concerned

But I think Rangel's AFL-CIO endorsement is bigger news. He needs their help in his primary vs. Adam Clayton Powell IV.

As for McMahon losing his AFL-CIO labor backing I'm sure he thinks its all part of the big Jewish global conspiracy to get him!

(And yes I'm being extra snarky today so take my post with a grain of salt)

Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
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[ Parent ]
What is with the black Democrats in NYC?
I mean, Meeks, Rangel, and Towns, a terrible mix of business-Democrats, corruption, and in Towns case, pure idiocy.  

[ Parent ]
Huh?
Why is Rangel a "business Democrat?" I assume by that--correct me if I'm wrong--that you mean corporatist? I don't find any evidence of that; in fact, I'll argue the contrary.

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan

[ Parent ]
I said a terrible mix
of the list above; Rangel falls under the corrupt part of that list, I didn't see all three of the Democrats were poor for all three reasons, I said it was a mix of things wrong with them, looking at them as a whole. Rangel is quite liberal, I know.

[ Parent ]
Oh
cool. Sorry for the misunderstanding! Though, I really don't think Rangel is that corrupt...

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan

[ Parent ]
It's not just the black Democrats in NYC,
The Latino and Caucasian Dems in NYC can be just as corrupt.

Joe Crowley was part of the Ethics probe on influence of lobbyist on financial reform legislation , Gary Ackerman has his own little corruption scandal (he got free insider stock in what seems like a crooked deal) and dont even get me started on the NYS Senate where the like of Pedro Espada roam wild.

The problem IMHO exist when you got pols running basically unopposed in overly partisan districts. They basically got no fear of voter backlash and get to feel like they can do whatever they want.

Lack of democracy can breed corruption.

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[ Parent ]
Yeah these guys suck
They keep supporting bogus trade deals while their district gets hammered in part due to these trade agreements.  

[ Parent ]
I think NYC depends on free trade
What industries in NYC would benefit from protectionism?

[ Parent ]
Yep!
As a Congresswomen from Brooklyn once said the only thing they grow in my district is marijuana! Most NYC residents are consumers rather than producers argiculutral or manufactured goods. So protectionism actually hurts them more than it helps them.

Add to that the fact that the Meeks district has a very large Carribian population and support of CAFTA makes sense.


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[ Parent ]
Totally agree
about Rangel. What he did was stupid, but small potatoes as far as I'm concerned. Rangel has done so much for working families in Harlem, and he deserves another term.

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan

[ Parent ]
Thanks Packer.
  I am glad he is dropping out.  This means that I will not have to listen to complaints about the big, mean Democrats pushing the lowly Greens off the ballot.  I hear it every year, and every year it gets less convincing.  PA greens would be much more sympathetic if they hadn't taken Republican money in 2006.

24, Male, GA-05

Artur Davis needs to get over it


24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

Dear Artur,
Stop being a sore loser.

Love,
Glenn Magus Harvey

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


[ Parent ]
Not sure what to think about ND-AL right now
Rick Berg's at a crazy high 53%...he completely shattered the sacred 50% mark (and I'm not being sarcastic). I'm hoping that Pomeroy can shit all over Berg after labor day with his humongous pile of cash, but this is ND in a strong GOP year with John Fuckin' Hoeven at the top of the ticket. Any reason for hope in this district?

19, male, Dem, CT-04 (home) PA-02 (college and registered)

No polling confirmation
From anybody else.

[ Parent ]
I'm with conspiracy...
Be skeptical of Rasmussen when there's no other poll to back him up.  

[ Parent ]
ND
That poll appears to have a very tight likely-voter screen, which is typical for Rasmussen. Only 13% of respondents reported having no opinion of Berg, who has never held statewide office. He was the state House majority leader for 4 years, but I can't imagine that he's that well-known even in a state like North Dakota with a generally high level of civic engagement.

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
Pomeroy has survived tough races before
Only Rasmussen is polling the race, so there is no other data to look at and compare to see where the race is actually at. I won't write Pomeroy off just yet.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

[ Parent ]
Of course not...
No one should write Pomeroy off on the basis of Rasmussen polls. I'm even a bit of a defender of Rasmussen polls, but we certainly need to see some more polling of this race.  

[ Parent ]
OH, LA
I'll finally say what should have been said on OH, Brunner sucks and should have just ran for SoS and found a different way to fulfill her potential in politics, instead of going down in flames for little reason.  Because with her winning and if Strickland could pull it out, we'd control congressional redistricting.  Kilroy and Dreihaus could easily retake their old seats with some new lines, although I kind of prefer different candidates to be honest if we draw ourselves solid blue seats

As for LA, Jindal will probably be running for Senate then in 2014, it all just lines up for him.  HIm and Vitter would rival Inhofe and Coburn I'd think.


Jindal senate
I think him running for Senate all depends on 2012. If a Republican is elected and they do not select Jindal for VP or a cabinet position, I think it is likely he runs for Senate in 2014. If he is still popular, he would destroy anyone, and, in 2020, when he'd be up for re-election, he could be a strong presidential candidate.

[ Parent ]
However,
if Obama wins, I see Jindal sitting out a Senate Race. I think LA Voters would see him as just using it as a stepping post to turn right around and run for President and Landrieu could probably get some real traction on that issue.

If Obama wins reelection I assume Jindal will forgo a Senate race and start campaigning full time for the Presidency.  


[ Parent ]
I agree
It makes a lot more sense for Jindal. His term would end in January 2016, just in time for the primaries.  

[ Parent ]
You gotta admit,
Landrieu could be exceptionally lucky. With Jindal running for President, and with the Governor's race attracting the big name GOPers, she could luck out and get another term due to lack of a strong challenger. Might even see a primary between Cassidy and Fleming. Ooh, I relish the thought, lol.

I wonder if Mitch does a stunning job getting New Orleans turned around whether he might be in a strong position to beat a weakened Dardenne, (assuming some Republican infighting), for Governor. Maybe...maybe, but I bet he'd prefer for Mary to just retire then, it would make it easier for him. But if she didn't, and he did win, and she as well, it would interesting, having a brother-sister pair working as Governor and Senior Senator.  


[ Parent ]
Governor
The problem with that is LA has jungle primaries, for federal races too in 2014. I think Dardenne or Nungesser is the most likely successor to Jindal. Dardenne may be lt. gov by then, but I think there is still a good chance he loses to Villere. If Mitch turns NOLA around, he will be tough to beat in a race for gov come 2015. Being mayor of NOLA is like being mayor of NY though, its generally dead end as far as electoral futures go.

[ Parent ]
However
if you look at NOLA Mayors elected in the last thirty years none of them have been elected statewide previously and when was the last white Mayor before Landrieu? I think he would be very competitive.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
last white mayor before Mitch Landrieu?
That'd be his daddy, Moon Landrieu in 1978. Moon was later HUD secretary for Carter. Moon was a bit toxic statewide though because he was such a big proponent of civil rights and a fairly liberal Dem for the time. Plus, Louisiana Democrats had Edwin Edwards in the 1970s and 80s, they didn't need anyone else to run for Governor lol.

[ Parent ]
last white mayor
was Mitch and Mary's dad Moon Landrieu.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M...

He was not elected statewide in Louisiana,
however, he did serve in Jimmy Carter's cabinet.



[ Parent ]
More Than 30 Years
I can't think of any mayor of New Orleans who went on to statewide success. In fact except for Chep Morrison I can't think of any who tried. But Mitch has a lot of talent, so I guess we'll see.

[ Parent ]
But technically Mitch has already
been successful statewide, twice winning election as Lieutenant Governor. So he's proven he can do it.  

[ Parent ]
Yep
And he was always very popular. He still is probably. I wonder if MAry's decline in popularity is hurting him though? I doubt it.  

[ Parent ]
Big city mayors
the only way one can win statewide in most states is to be wildy popular in the suburbs...ala Ed Rendell 2002.

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7

[ Parent ]
I know
Jungle Primaries make it even better. If Republicans have 2 or 3 major candidates running against Landrieu while she faces no significant Democratic opposition, she could squeak by with like 50.1% of the vote due to the split, indecisive opposition.

I think that if Mitch is a smashing success in NOLA, in cutting back crime, finishing the rebuilding process, finishing the new weather defenses and maybe even making it a point to root out some corruption here and there, that will have serious kudos for him in normally GOP areas like Jefferson and St. Bernard. I could see him beating Dardenne by getting 90% in New Orleans, 55% in Jefferson and St. Bernard, get a good double digit margin in Caddo, and a narrow win over Cassidy in Baton Rouge, (because he's a native there), and of course win a collection of south central La and delta parishes.  


[ Parent ]
I think
Landrieu would not even attempt to run against Jindal.  She would stand aside the day he announced for the Senate and may even run for Gov in 2015.

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7

[ Parent ]
Don't make me laugh
Jindal is not as strong as you think. I've yet to see him really do anything as a Governor, (except some political grandstanding and an ethics bill which effectively left the status quo unchanged), and in 2007 he only won with 54% of the vote, this despite the fact that the media, both in Louisiana and Nationally, and had announced him the winner 18 months before the voters actually voted. Democrats had no options really, and money dried up because everyone thought it was a lost cause. Two right-wing big moneybags spent about 12 million against Jindal, while the only real Democrat, Foster Campbell, languished at the back of the pack. Despite this severely fractured field of opponents, Gov. Blanco's unpopularity, and his perceived invincibility, Jindal got a measly 54% of the vote.

Louisiana voters aren't stupid. Landrieu would have no trouble making Jindal's obvious presidential run into a big issue. I'd personally love to see him run--and then lose. What a way to wipe out his political career, as he would have no shot nationally after losing to Landrieu.  


[ Parent ]
54%
Is huge in LA, in a field of 4 candidates, where Jindal was under attack constantly by two self funding opponents. The local media wasn't sure that he'd win without a run-off, only the national media was.  

[ Parent ]
Oh they were
Georges was self-serving stinkpot, and Boasso was only slightly better. None of the three had any real ideological distinction, and it's only obvious Jindal would come out of that on top, as the most legitimate candidate. All the North Louisiana papers were predicting Jindal would get close to 60%.  

[ Parent ]
Not South LA
Which is the only part that matters :P  

[ Parent ]
gah, for the umpteenth time
The SoS and Auditor races have NOTHING to do with congressional redistricting in Ohio.  The 5-member panel of Gov, House, Senate, SoS, and Auditor is used for state legislative redistricting only.  Congressional redistricting is a product solely of the legislature, the governor's office, and if necessary, the courts.  

Also in your example, the democrats would need to either hold the state house or pick up the open auditor's seat to gain control of state legislative re-districting.  You need 3 of 5 for control, of course.  

   

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13


[ Parent ]
In fairness to Andrew...
It's hard to keep track of this in Ohio. Most states do both types of redistricting (congressional and state) in the same way.

[ Parent ]
Brunner may run for Congress in 2012
She is from the Columbus area, IIRC, and there will likely be two Republicans in vulnerable districts in 2012.

[ Parent ]
I believe Brunner is from OH-12
Assuming Paula Brooks falls short against Tiberi, it'll be interesting if she gives it a shot.  If she can get past her fundraising struggles a bit she would be extremely tough for Tiberi to beat with Obama and Sherrod Brown running top of the ticket.  

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

[ Parent ]
If we lose both OH-01 and OH-15 this year
[ Parent ]
Rick Scott ad
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com...

Wow. First time have heard this guy speak and he as ZERO charisma. Oh, and did I mention Republicans make me sick to the stomach with their phony grandstanding on issues like this.


RE: GA-Sen Not as bad as expected
Thurmond is doing about as well as I would expect against Isakson and he is actually trending up but so is Isakson as more undecided voters take a side.

Obama's approval is also pretty decent considering it equals out to what he received on election day in 2008.  


Agreed
I'm kind of surprised though, Thurmond's campaign has been very quiet. I'm hoping he'll start campaigning soon.

[ Parent ]
Lack of funds
Thurmond's own problem is the lack of funds. While Isakson raised more than $4,500,000 , Thurmond is only able to raise $116,867. However i still think that Thurmond can turn things around

[ Parent ]
If Obama's approval rating
is really 46% in Georgia, I would guess that Roy Barnes will be your next governor.  At least some of that 48% that strongly disapprove of Obama will vote against Nathan Deal.

But I doubt it is that high.  I'd guess that Obama is polling in the low 40s in Georgia.


[ Parent ]
Pleasantly surprising to see Thurmond above 40%
While I was expecting him to at least break 40% this year, it's heartening to see him polling above 40%.  Maybe Georgia is closer to turning blue than we would think*.

*(My estimation has been that Georgia would probably go blue no sooner than 2012.)

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.


[ Parent ]
Questions about the Repeal of the 17th amendment
If it were implemented
what would happen to states that had split party control?(i.e Dems control state house and Reps hold the state senate)
Would each house elect one senator a piece?

And who would Nebraska's unicameral non-partisan legislature elect as its senators?

An why have Republicans been supporting this while if anything the move would benefit Democrats:

Dems would gain senate seats in:
Mississippi: +2
Alabama: +2
Louisiana: +1
Maine: +2
New Hampshire: +1
Massachusetts +1
North Carolina: +1
Total: +10

Republicans would only gain
Florida:+1
Missouri: +1
Total:

I decided to leave off states with split control:
Montana, Ohio, Indiana, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Alaska, Kentucky  

Male 21 Dem Ca's 1st  


Also
Also the current make up is this:

27 Democratic-controlled Legislatures
14 Republican-controlled Legislatures
8 Split Legislatures
1 Officially nonpartisan (Nebraska)

If we assumed split legislatures elected one senator of each party and Nebraska elects two republicans we get:

Democrats: 27*2=54+8(split)= 62 Democratic senators!

Republicans: 14*2=28+8(split)+2(Nebraska)= 38 Republican senators

So if elections were held today with the current majorities in the legislature Democrats would gain 2 seats!

Male 21 Dem Ca's 1st  


[ Parent ]
Correction
Democrats would gain 3 seats

Male 21 Dem Ca's 1st  

[ Parent ]
State Legislatures
However remember that some legislature under democrat control are actually very (or at least somewhat) conservative. They may appoint conservative members to the senate.  

[ Parent ]
if
the MS legislature had the ability to appoint a Senator, I think it would be Gene Taylor.

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7

[ Parent ]
Yea
He'd be a great one too.

[ Parent ]
It's on like Donkey Kong in KS-03
The local alternative paper, The Pitch, is having a field day with Republican nominee Kevin Yoder's constant campaign fakery: http://blogs.pitch.com/plog/20...

Americans for Prosperity are dumping money into the district, trying to tie Stephene Moore to Nancy Pelosi [yeeeah, good luck with that]. Meanwhile, in reality land, Moore landed the endorsement of the Blue Dogs (her husband Dennis was one).

And local voters may get a ton of debates: Yoder challenged Moore to 6 debates, trying to boost his name recognition, obviously, and expecting relative neophyte Moore to try and get away with just one or two. But Moore's response was basically: Bring it.

Personally, I'm really starting to like Stephene Moore. She is feisty and brassy, while still maintaining that "I'm a grandma who bakes pies" appeal.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


Obama dissaproval reaches 50% for 1st time in Gallup
I'm not surprised
Being on the wrong side of public opinion when the GOP indulges in demagoguery of every damn issue will do that.

[ Parent ]
Good to see you feisty
Normally you are so polite. That was a great way to put it.  

[ Parent ]
And instead of fighting back...
...he waffles... what a mistake in every respect....

[ Parent ]
I think
its part of Obama's personality. Sadly in war and in politics hesitation will kill you. He only gave more ammo to the GOP by backtracking himself. Someone should tell Obama if you can't stand the heat don't be in the kitchen.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Kanjo, Critz, Periello, Carney, Dahlkemper, Kosmas trail
http://www.nationalreview.com/...
Polls are by a conservative group, and some have no undecideds.  

This seems like an absolute worst case scenario to me...
How could Critz be trailing after winning by 9 points earlier this year?  

[ Parent ]
Didn't a GOP poll last week
Have Dahlkemper ahead? On the bright side, if they don't have Chris Murphy, Rahall, Himes, Scott Murphy, Owens and Maffei down then it is safe to assume they'll all probably be fine.

[ Parent ]
I wasn't worried about Rahall,
and I find it hard to believe you were. This is a heavily labor, big time union district and Rahall has their fervent backing. It's the most Democratic of the state's districts, and with Rahall's 17 terms of incumbency and clout, and Manchin on top of the ballot, (not to mention a coal company executive with ties to the collapsed mine that claimed so many lives), how in the world could you imagine that Rahall would possibly be in trouble or that there would be the remotest cause to worry about him?

I wasn't worried about Owens, Murphy and Maffei either.


[ Parent ]
I wasn't worried about any of those
Just making a point.

[ Parent ]
I suppose Burns could ride Tom Corbett's coattails a bit


For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Looks like
the Democrat got the post-primary bounce for once, as Malloy's big surge, (coupled with Foley's near collapse in the GOP primary), have given the Democrat a boost.

I wonder if LePage wins, whether moronic leftists will finally quit running as independents in Maine with the delusion they are accomplishing something. A LePage win might be the best thing to ever happen to Democrats in Maine, as it would be thorough disaster for the Republican party there; in fact I wouldn't be surprised if it caused a collapse and a large scale realignment to the Democrats that would effectively seal the state as a Democratic one, and maybe even force Snowe into a party switch with a nasty primary.


Gates retiring
Next year. If Webb is selected to replace him (would be a stupid pick politically, but a great pick experience wise), that could tip the senate to Republicans if we pick up 9 seats this year. I'm sure if Obama picked Webb though, he would get McDonnell to agree to a Democratic placeholder.  

Another possibility
I hadn't though of Jack Reed before. But if Chafee is governor, who does he appoint? A moderate Republican or Democrat, or an Independent?  

[ Parent ]
Jack Reed
Was discussed as a possibility (and Reed publicly expressed he didn't want the job) back during the transition. I suppose it's possible he'd be picked (unlike Webb), but I think picking a sitting member of Congress isn't especially likely.

[ Parent ]
Wesley Clark would be eligible by then
I think he has to be retired 10 years to be SecDef.

[ Parent ]
I get the impression
That Obama and Clark don't care for each other.

[ Parent ]
It would be consistent with the
"team of rivals" thing, which could be powerful going into '12.

[ Parent ]
I don't see it
Why would Reed give up a lifetime Senate seat for what could be as little as one year as SecDef?

[ Parent ]
Hagel perhaps?
Who knows.

[ Parent ]
Thats who
I think it will be. Avoids attacks about replacing a Republican with a Dem, doesn't hurt Dems electorally, a close friend of Obama, and a very non-controversial pick.  

[ Parent ]
Yet Another Non-Democrat in the Job?
It might avoid attacks from Republicans (those who will not be voting for the president in 2012), but I can see a fair bit of the president's base being annoyed. It would play to the "only Republicans can protect the country" image that's out there in some circles. And after Secretary Cohen and Secretary Gates, some Democrats might like a Democratic president to appoint a Democrat.

That said, Hagel could well be a contender.


[ Parent ]
Hey
I have the utmost respect for Gates even though he's a Republican. He has the balls to advocate and carry out the thankless deed of cutting the military's budget and bureaucracy. Boy Warner and Webb were not happy when Gates announced JFCOM was being closed.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
I second that
Gates has been surprisingly awesome on most counts, even if I haven't exactly been overjoyed with how DADT has been handled. On the most important things, though, the overall execution of the wars and reform of the Pentagon bureaucracy, he's been an excellent SecDef.  

Actually, now that I think about it, I think Obama will appoint a Republican--it's much more politically defensible when a Republican cuts the military budget than when a Democrat does. And I'm sure that same thought has occurred to Rahm Emanuel.  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


[ Parent ]
Gates Has Been Successful
I didn't mean to imply that he hasn't. And maybe Hagel would be great But there's definitely a set of people out there annoyed with the fact that it often seems the only people DC-types deem competent to hold security jobs are Republicans (or, perhaps, Democrats with stars on their shoulders).

[ Parent ]
This is way, way off track
Come on people -- I get that there could be electoral implications if Obama taps a Senator to be his next SecDef, and discussing that is fine, but we shouldn't go any further than that on SSP.

[ Parent ]
McNamara too
The Kennedy version. Who cares what party they belong to if they do a good job.

[ Parent ]
Lindsay Graham
Supposedly a deal has been in the works for awhile, at least that's what the tea partiers in SC think. It would explain Graham's support for Obama and his nose-thumbing to the tea baggers.  

[ Parent ]
That would be dumb
Not only would Obama lose one of the few non-crazy Republicans in the Senate, who would almost certainly be replaced by a frothing DeMint clone, but he wouldn't make his base happy (first gay Cabinet member only counts if they're openly so, Mr. President) nor would he be the most experienced or competent choice among Republicans.

I think Graham does the nose-thumbing thing to the teabaggers because they publicly announced he was gayer than a rainbow-colored unicorn and then promptly used a dummy version of him as a pinata.  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


[ Parent ]
"Obama lose one of the few non-crazy Republicans in the Senate"
Personally I think that it is a moot point, if I was Graham I would be praying for a cabinet appointment. He has no chance in hell of winning a Republican primary in 2014. Sad, he is one of my favorite Republicans, and I honestly think he is a good Senator.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
He's welcome
to pull a Specter or a Crist.  

[ Parent ]
I doubt he would.
Honestly he is really not that moderate but it is just that Republicans have moved soooo far to the right recently he comes off looking that way. Anymore if you are conservative but you have a couple of independent streaks you're a "RINO". Just like Lugar, I like Lugar but he is a conservative but he has a brain at the same time. I think Graham, Snowe, and Lugar (if he runs) will all be tea bagged in 2012.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Well 2014 for Graham.


Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
I would offer Lugar
the pick for Secretary of state, and let Bayh appoint whomever.  

[ Parent ]
Agreed
Obama and Lugar worked hard together for nuclear nonproliferation.

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan

[ Parent ]
I have a feeling
that's the job Senator Lugar would love to have for a few years to top off his career in public service.

[ Parent ]
Makes sense
if Sheheen beats Haley this year.  Then, you appoint Graham, replace him with a Democrat, who gets a head start for 2012 with Obama on the ballot and a strong black turnout.

[ Parent ]
A gay turncoat Republican SecDef?

Stranger things are possible, but not many.

[ Parent ]
Hope this isn't off-track...
if Reed resigned/were appointed to something and Chafee were governor, I guess in theory he could appoint Lincoln Almond, the last governor before our current one, Don Carcieri. Almond is a Republican but has a moderate rep (I think, anyway; I was a kid when he was governor). There is an independent in the state senate, Edward O'Neill, but I'm not sure he's Chafee's type. Appointing a mainstream Democrat isn't out of the question either, seeing as how Chafee was a pretty solid Obama supporter in 2008.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
That would make sense
And James said its OK if we are talking about him appointing a Senator, and the electoral consequences of it. If he has any high-profile moderate Republican or Dem supporters, I guess they;d be on the list. Bonus points to Almond for having the same first name as Chafee. I assume he'd just be a placeholder?  

[ Parent ]
Probably
since Wiki says Almond is 74.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
SoD should be a party-blind position
IMHO, this is the least political Cabinet position and should be filled by the most qualified person from whichever side of the aisle. Webb would be a fine pick, as would be John McCain or perhaps someone like Jim Marshall from the House.

In my mind, appointing Gates was one of the best personnel moves Bush made as President, and keeping him on has been one of Obama's best.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08


[ Parent ]
Agree
Although it is hard to take politics out of anything anymore. I support Gates and will be disappointed to see him go. A name that does not get a lot of attention is Sam Nunn. He would be a great pick. I would have trouble seeing the Republicans blocking him and it would be nice to finally see a dem back in the office (I know just contradicted my first sentence). Though I would not complain if he appointed Hagel.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
No Way...
...unless DADT repeal is set in absolute stone. Yeah, Obama's progress on gay rights has been way too slow, but he's been called on it enough that he can't go BACKWARDS, and Nunn was way on the wrong side of the debate when he was in the Senate.

[ Parent ]
Careful
One user has already been banned over this sub-thread.

[ Parent ]
Really?
On this thread? Who?

[ Parent ]
See James L.'s comment further down
and click "Parent".

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
Oh no, not NewMex999! :o
What a shame. :(

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
One thing
I am sorry I just have to point this out, Nunn has reversed his position on DADT. Nunn could do a few interviews explaining how he has progressed on the issue and maybe that would help mend some fences with the gay community. I will shut up now, I just wanted to say that but let's not debate further.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Well If We Are Going to Argue Merit Trumps Politics
Then maybe the pick should be an actual security expert and not a politician. Not to say that there aren't politicians with real expertise - but there aren't tons of them.

[ Parent ]
Well Gates
was a security expert and not a politician, though many liberals were against him because of Bush Sr. and Reagan connections.  

[ Parent ]
Yeah, you're right
But I don't really know any security officials off the top of my head. That's the trouble with these appointments: pick someone people know is qualified and they're bound to have political baggage, or pick a no name who may very well be qualified and people will scream that this is no time to be running a rookie.

If Obama could find Gates 2.0, that would be ideal.  

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08


[ Parent ]
Is there a strong hawk who could replace Gates?
None of the possible replacements really thrill me, Hagel, Clark, etc.  I probably would like Webb, as he would strengthen the military and get rid of old weapons, waste, and bullshit no-bid contracts to bogus contractors.

Gates has been ok, though.  


[ Parent ]
why
would obama appoint a strong hawk? it's contrary to his positions on foreign policy, and contrary to the base as well.  oh wait, he ignores the base

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)

[ Parent ]
I don't think Obama should appoint a current Senator.
Especially in a swing state like Virginia.  We need every one of them.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
I think of Clark and Hagel as hawks too
perhaps just not to the same extent as Dick Cheney. But then again, Jim Webb is no Dick Cheney.

[ Parent ]
You were warned, twice.


[ Parent ]
Obama has too much political savvy to choose Jim Webb
I mean, this is the President who arguably drafted (successfully) John McHugh and (unsuccessfully) Judd Gregg to national positions, in the interests of getting some blue blood into those seats. Obama, who will probably lose Virginia, realizes Jim Webb is probably the only Democrat who can hold that seat in '12, and, even at that, Webb will only win narrowly.

I don't think Wes Clark is the right pick heading into a contentious presidential race, though Hillary Clinton will push hard for his consideration. Chuck Hagel, politically, makes a little more sense, although you're still running the risk of alienating liberals for nominating a conservative Republicans, and neo-conservatives for selecting the harshest GOP critic on Bush foreign policy.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


[ Parent ]
an excellent new profile on Gates
is: http://www.foreignpolicy.com/a...
That may the article that set off the recent retirement speculation.
It's clear that nothing is firm re retirement with that man. And that Gates will almost certainly say "yes" if Obama asks him to stay on longer (since Gates has become one of his closest advisers).

[ Parent ]
Gates and Clinton
Gates and Clinton proved to be a powerful duo in Obama cabinet. They manage two of the most powerful cabinets and they manage to have little criticism (compare to other times) doing/accomplishing Obama goals    

[ Parent ]
I'd love Eric Shinseki
Former Army chief of staff and current VA secretary who had the balls to tell Bush Iraq was doomed to go bad. Sadly, I don't believe he'd be eligble until 2013.

19, male, Dem, CT-04 (home) PA-02 (college and registered)

[ Parent ]
Enough
SSP is not the right place for talking about who should be the next SecDef, of all things.

[ Parent ]
FL-Sen: Star Jones endorses Greene
fmr de gov.
sherman tribbitt died at 87.


18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)

Give en Heck'
http://politicalwire.com/archi...

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

In '88, when Denny ran for WA superintendent of public instruction
his motto was "What the Heck?"

[ Parent ]
Maine
Mitchell is very liberal AFAIK, LePage - very conservative, but tries to hide that behind populist rhetoric. So there is, surely, rather big room to grow for Cutler, with his "left-of-center" positions being not far from those of majority of Maine voters.


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