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SSP Daily Digest: 8/12 (Afternoon Edition)

by: Crisitunity

Thu Aug 12, 2010 at 2:55 PM EDT


• NV-Sen: It really seems Sharron Angle is trying to "soften" her image... maybe? For starters, she's reversed course on attending a Tea Party rally this weekend on the U.S./Mexico border (probably not wanting to be photographed in proximity to the signs that attendees are going to be waving at such an event), despite having confirmed her appearance there last week. And her newest TV ad also focuses on how she wants to "save" Social Security, although her definition of "save" might vary considerably from yours or mine. Harry Reid's out with his own TV ad, too, calling her "dangerous" and "crazy" over her now-infamous "2nd Amendment remedies" line.

• CA-Gov: Jerry Brown just got $20,000 from a very unusual source: Alex Spanos, owner of the San Diego Chargers and usually a staunch Republican donor (as well as a real estate developer who has recently clashed with Brown, as AG, over land-use laws). Spanos hasn't contributed to Meg Whitman's campaign. Apparently Spanos and the Brown family go way back; Spanos was a financial backer for Brown's first gubernatorial campaign in 1974.

• MA-Gov: There's a new poll of the governor's race out, from somebody called Mass Insight (taken by Opinion Dynamics): since the only place I can find a link to the poll is Red Mass Group (not even Mass Insight's own site?) and their site describes themselves as a consulting and research firm that focuses on "market-driven solutions," I think it's safe to call this a Republican-ish poll. At any rate, they find Democratic incumbent Deval Patrick leading GOPer Charlie Baker and independent Tim Cahill 30-25-16. And in a two-way race (which, of course, would require Cahill to drop out), Baker leads Patrick 42-37. The poll also reports that 54% of respondents are either "somewhat or very likely" to vote against their incumbent Congressman (all of whom are Democrats, of course) this year.

• MI-Gov (pdf): The Detroit News is out with its first poll of the gubernatorial race after the primary elections, conducted by the Glengariff Group. GOPer Rick Snyder leads Democrat Virg Bernero 51-32, leading in all parts of the state except Detroit proper. Snyder's faves are 41/15, pretty remarkable considering he just got out of a heated four-way primary, while Bernero's are 21/27.

• ID-01, OH-18, PA-04: The NRCC is pushing back today after the New York Times, as part of a longer piece talking about Dem House incumbents, said that Walt Minnick, Zack Space, and Jason Altmire were "no longer seen by Republicans as easy targets." I guess one can quibble over what "easy" means, which is different from saying the GOP has cut these districts loose, but still, to talk with that level of specificity, the NYT had to have gotten that idea from somewhere.

• MA-10: Well, this open seat race just keeps getting weirder and weirder, with the entry of yet another sorta-prominent former Dem running as an indie. Former state Rep. (and way back in the mists of time, aide to Tip O'Neill) Maryanne Lewis will run as a moderate independent. (Recall that former Quincy mayor James Sheets is already running as an indie, too.) I understand the desire to circumvent the Dem primary in this district, which already has two heavyweights in it, but too many indie cooks could spoil the broth here in November.

• MI-01: This photo-finish race in the GOP primary has been outstanding for almost two weeks now, but the state board of canvassers is preparing to certify the election tomorrow. According to physician Dan Benishek's camp, he leads by 15 votes over state Sen. Jason Allen. Allen is taking a wait-and-see attitude, though a recount sounds likely (which will be cumbersome, in this 31-county district... something I'm sure Dem nominee Gary McDowell doesn't mind, I'm sure).

• MS-01: Rep. Travis Childers, in for a tough fight against Alan Nunnelee, is out with his first TV ad. As one would expect, in his dark-red district, he's talking up how he's one of the "most independent" members of the House, and name-drops his NRA and National Right to Life endorsements. NWOTSOTB.

• VA-09: One last ad to report, and it's from a very strange source: the Some Dude in the Bloody 9th, running as an independent, is actually hitting the airwaves. I'm not sure with what money, as he's raised $20K over the cycle (almost all self-funded) and at the end of June had $88 CoH. (There's not a K missing. That's literally $88.) Anyway, he wants you to know that he's never taken money from special interests (which should be abundantly clear from his fundraising report) and never will.

• Rasmussen:
• CO-Sen: Michael Bennet (D-inc) 41%, Ken Buck (R) 46%
• IL-Gov: Pat Quinn (D-inc) 35%, Bill Brady (R) 48%
• MO-Sen: Robin Carnahan (D) 43%, Roy Blunt (R) 50%
• WI-Gov: Tom Barrett (D) 41%, Scott Walker (R) 49%
• WI-Gov: Tom Barrett (D) 43%, Mark Neumann (R) 45%
Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 8/12 (Afternoon Edition)
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SSP Daily Digest: 8/12 (Afternoon Edition) | 84 comments
I can buy Idaho and Pennsylvania, but puzzled by OH-18
I sorta believe the NRCC denial on this one considering they just sponsored a poll showing Space tied with his opponent. Why would they downgrade it after that (unless they've got so many better chances?)  
The poll is bunk!
They just leaked their made up poll numbers to try and make it a race.  They haven't release the full details of the poll because they know it's bunk.  They probably just asked negatives about Space and positives about Gibbs until they got the numbers they wanted.  We'll never know though because they wont release it.
[ Parent ]
Michigan
1. It's the Detroit News - which endorsed McCain.

2. Snyder started advertising during the Super Bowl.

3. Thanks to #2, people have a much more positive image of Snyder (as the poll indicates). People will soon find out about Snyder's role in the outsourcing of jobs to Communist China.

4. The well-known Granholm was down by several points in 2006 against Dick DeVos, who had also been on the air for many months. In the One Poll That Mattered, it was Granholm 56, DeVos 42.

Friends of Senator Carl Levin

My thoughts...
1. Irrelvant, unless you can show the poll was biased.

2. Smart of him, since he's obviously built up a lead

3. This likely is true, and I'm sure once they find out about the outsourcing, Snyder will go down in the polls. However, it's a large lead to overcome.

4. It's not 2006.  

[ Parent ]
Fiorina +5, Whitman +1
According to SUSA, Fiorina leads Boxer 47-42, and Whitman leads Brown 44-43. For lt gov, Newsom leads by 1. No AG numbers, atleast not yet. http://cbs5.com/politics/fiori...
Rasmussen
And Ras had both Dems leading. Interesting.
[ Parent ]
I really don't buy those numbers
If anything, Newsome would be down, and Brown would be up.

May have to start putting SUSA in my  RAS pile...

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
This one doesn't look accurate
Fiorina hasn't been up in any other poll, not even a little bit, so I doubt she's really up here. The Gubernatorial poll is a little less out there, as Brown's leads have been narrow anyway and this is basically a tie.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
[ Parent ]
I wouldn't get too excited
Just yet. They also had Fiorina up last month since when Rasmussen (twice) and PPP have had Boxer ahead by 5-9 points.
[ Parent ]
SUSA's the only pollster
to have Boxer trailing.

http://www.pollster.com/polls/...

It's like Rassmusen in the Florida senate race.  An outlier.

[ Parent ]
The internals on CA-Gov look pretty plausible
That is, if you believe Meg Whitman's over-performing among Hispanics, which, for now, I can buy.

CA-Sen, on the flip side, looks a little too favorable for Fiorina. It's hard to fathom her netting a fourth of African-Americans, let alone out-performing Whitman among the Hispanic vote. If Fiorina can really keep Boxer's lead among women to single-digits, she undoubtedly wins.

I suspect these two look more like...

Democrat - 39%
GOP - 32%
Independent - 29%

Brown - 87/10/46 = 50%
Whitman - 13/90/54 = 50%

Boxer - 90/5/48 = 51%
Fiorina - 10/95/52 = 49%

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
CA
Survey USA Is becoming a very bad pollster.Back In 2008
during the primarys they had Hillary CLinton with huge leads In Missouri and Indiana and Obama barely winning NC.
Obama won NC big and narrorly won Missouri Primary.Hillary barely won the Indiana primary.In the general election they
had Mccain winning In Minnesotta which Obama won by 10.
And they had In Colorado primary they had romonoff winning.
Even RAS has Boxer ahead In California.Most other polls In
California have a narror Brown lead.Remember Whitman has been pouring money on ads while Brown has started spending his money yet really yet.
Ras
Has been the only poll showing Boxer with big leads, other than that one PPP poll. The Field poll has shown it a dead heat.  
[ Parent ]
PPIC
showed Boxer +5, Field, Boxer +3.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
Yeah
I think GOPVOTER has SPS (Selective Poll Syndrome). I am not one to criticize every poll that show us in hot water but unless this is the beginning of a trend then this is probably an outlier. I mean this is the biggest Failorina lead ever and is not even slightly close to what other reputable pollsters show. I doubt it is accurate.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
No
I have the same syndrom ya'll do, which is ignore Rasmussen when it shows a good result for me and a bad result for me, which some people here don't. Some people believe the polls when they show something good. Rasmussen has been the only pollster to show Boxer with huge leads, other than one PPP poll. I trust PPP as much as anyone, but when the Field Poll shows Boxer and Fiorina statistically tied (Boxer +3 with a 3.2% margin of error= statistical tie) and only one credible pollster (PPP) shows a big Boxer lead, I will trust what 3 credible pollsters said (PPIC, Field, SUSA).  
[ Parent ]
That isn't my system at all
I take every poll into account, including Rasmussen.  
[ Parent ]
Your
One of the few I guess. If what Rasmussen shows is what most other pollsters show, I will believe it, but when its totally out there, I don't.  
[ Parent ]
Well
In this case his polls show what everyone else shows except SurveyUSA - a 3-9 point Boxer lead.
[ Parent ]
FWIW, I'm with conspiracy
Especially now that Rasmussen seems to have gotten more credible in their polling results (since we are getting closer to the election)  
[ Parent ]
Rasmussen
On average his polls lean about 5 points Republican which means sometimes they are accurate and sometimes they are wildly wrong by anything up to 10 points. This is why I take all polling into account in order to see which is which. As I said though, it is possible this could be a new trend but we will have to wait and see.
[ Parent ]
Completely agree with the above statement

[ Parent ]
While there are exceptions among individual users
I've found this online community to be the most focused on political reality than any other.

In other words, we consider all (non-internal) polls, unless they can be shown to be outliers. And in statistical analysis, the "dropping" of outliers can be justified.

[ Parent ]
Now
come on now I never mentioned Rasmussen and you know I usually ignore them even when the result is good. Although they do have polls that are not out of whack every once in a while. Let's just ignore PPP also because you discount that poll for some reason as well. Although I will just point out when two pollsters show similar results it is usually a sign. Now lets take those polls out of the equation if you look at field and every other poll this smells of outlier. What is it like 1 out of every 15 polls are outliers right? I am not saying I do not trust SUSA I just have my doubts about this result. If I see a field poll showing this then I will believe it but until I see more evidence then this is an outlier. It is not impossible that this is the start of a trend but if I was you I would wait for more confirmation before I got too excited (cough Washington cough).  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
I know
You never mentioned it and ignore it, but other people were mentioning Ras and some people do trust the good results. I agree, when 2 polls show the same result it is a sign, but when one is from a so-so pollster and one is from one of the best, but 4 polls from 3 firms show a similar result, and 2 of those firms are among the best, I think the race is closer to what those better firms show. There was a Field poll showing the race a statistical tie, the last one in July, with Boxer +3. Anyone know if they will be polling more often with the election coming up? Before it was only every 3 months.  
[ Parent ]
+5
Isn't a big lead, and the +3 was within the margin of error.
I should also point out SUSA was the first pollster to predict Fiorina's movement in the primary, and the first to show her with a huge lead in the primary.  
[ Parent ]
Oh come on
They were also a massive outlier last month! And the MoE in one poll is largely moot when the all the others show a lead in the same direction. Now, I agree this could very well be the start of a trend but we won't know that until another poll confirms it. For the moment I don't think it is unreasonable to regard it with great skepticism.
[ Parent ]
They
Were the outlier last month, but not massive. They only showed a 5 point swing to Fiorina from Field.  
[ Parent ]
Field wasn't the only poll though
Even if it is the gold standard. When ALL other polling shows something quite different there isn't any need to parse the MoE like that.
[ Parent ]
I know it wasn't
But there was Rasmussen and PPP showing one thing (big  Boxer leads) and then SUSA, PPIC, and Field showing it very close.  
[ Parent ]
You are putting too much emphasis
9 and 7 points isn't a big lead. Besides, these are polls not real votes. The difference between 3 and 9 is almost exactly the same as the difference between -2 and 3. Again, when every poll but one shows one thing, a small but significant Bozer lead I don't see how you can seriously suggest we give any weight to the odd one out. But again, they could be right this time.
[ Parent ]
Too much emphasis
On small details.
[ Parent ]
"Bozer"
LOL
[ Parent ]
Spot the outlier
[ Parent ]
LOL


20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
[ Parent ]
CO-Sen
Just don't understand what Colorado Democrats were thinking.  Even though it's a Rasmussen poll, Bennet's going to have trouble winning.
You
think it would have been easier with Romanoff? Also, there was a PPP poll out this week which had Bennet +3.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
Yes
Aside from the fact that Bennet's not as progressive, a non-entity and a political novice, there's a Green party candidate who will attract votes that would have otherwise gone to Romanoff.  
[ Parent ]
Everything
Romanoff said in the last year was done for "political reasons." That's obvious. He mounted this challenge because it was his time to move up.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
...
or so he thought. I have no doubt had he been elected, he wouldn't have been "liberal liberal" The Green Party candidate doesn't look particularly formidable. He's raised no money.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
Agree
Some people are absolutely delusional when it comes to Romanoff. Some people seem to think he was going to be some sort of Alan Grayson like progressive deity or something. He was in a competitive Democratic primary, of course he is going to move to the left as fast as he can but had he been elected he would likely have been center left. I am fairly confident that Romanoff's voting record would have been almost exactly the same as Bennet's. Romanoff had no money and stood a much lower chance of winning the general and would not have been much better than Bennet in the Senate. Colorado Democrats agree with me and I am glad. I plan on sending Bennet some money (fifty maybe more).

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Allevidence points to bennet as the stronger candidate
and almost all evidence except the National Enquirer, er I mean Rasmussen, points to Bennet being ahead.

Colorado Democrats were thinking that they intend to send Bennet back to the Senate.

[ Parent ]
Exactly!
C'mon, no way would Romanoff would be better. Personally, I think Bennet has the makings of a very good Senator if he can survive this cycle.  
[ Parent ]
Uh...
Romanoff was a crappy fundraiser, couldn't beat said political novice in a primary, oh and isn't all that progressive anyways (no matter what guys like David Sirota like to say).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
I'll
tell you what they were thinking. They wanted a candidate who could actually win the general. They made the right choice.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Snyder
Does anyone from MI know whether the other candidates went negative on Snyder in the primary? When you have more than two serious candidates there is less incentive to go negative, because negative ads often hurt both the attacker and the target.

41, Ind, CA-05
Anytime
I heard about the GOP side, it was Cox or Hoekstra trying to out teabag the other.  I feel like Snyder was fairly ignored.  I went into a Snyder HQ just to see what it was a like and 1. a lot of money went into it and 2. the word "Republican" didn't appear anywhere.

I also know a TON of Democrats who voted for Snyder who will vote for Bernero in November.  Everyone knows that the GOP has at the very least an edge in winning here, so they wanted to vote for the least nutty GOPer.

[ Parent ]
Cox went hard negative
Near the end, from about mid-July through August, the Cox campaign and allied 527s were running ads talking about the outsourcing allegations and how "liberal" Snyder is. They were decent buys, too, because I saw them several times over 3 or 4 weeks.

And I think that negative ads can vary in effectiveness depending upon the source and the target. Case in point: Cox going negative on Snyder probably is less effective than, say, Hoekstra going negative on Snyder because Cox has generally lower favorables and higher negatives to begin with. Likewise, Snyder is an outsider, an unknown, and people will tend to see it as "politicians trying to tar the new guy." However, if Snyder had gone strongly negative on either of the others, it would have been even WORSE for him, because then people would see him as "just another mud-slinging politician," exactly the opposite of the image he tried to cultivate.

That said, I think that someone who, like Harry Reid, has already hit bottom in terms of how negatively people can view him, can run extremely negative ads against his opponent without fear. Particularly so when his opponent is so peculiar and associated with a group like the Tea Party, which many people who aren't political junkies view with trepidation.

[ Parent ]
One more thing
That said, I think that someone who, like Harry Reid, has already hit bottom in terms of how negatively people can view him, can run extremely negative ads against his opponent without fear. Particularly so when his opponent is so peculiar and associated with a group like the Tea Party, which many people who aren't political junkies view with trepidation.

Angle has said and did several things since the primary that played right into Reid's attacks on her.  

[ Parent ]
CO
Most polls showed Bennet as the more electable of the 2.
Of course RAS would come out with poll with Buck ahead.
Tuesday showed PPP should be one of the top rated pollster.
Yeah PPP people are Democratic leaning but they often get
It right.Untill October gets here RAS Is just a Republican
pollster.
Robin Carnahan is on the air
MO
It Is tough In this environment to run statewide as a dem
In Missouri.Robin Carnahan will do well In St Louis City,
St Louis Country,and Kansas City but apart from that so far
she Is getting killed In polls apart from the democratic
strongholds In the state.So far a lot of voters(most lilely
read Independents)here are Blaming Obama for the economy and some take the right wing attacks seriously.They are
forgottening Blunt's reciving lobbyists(Including abenoff)
money,supporting deregulation which got us In this mess,
was all for bailing out the banks when Bush was president
and now Republicans had nothing to do with bailouts It was
all that socialist rasing taxes Obama's fault(which Is more of less the republican line) and has a statement on
being against Social Security and Medicare.As a Dem In Kansas City I am voting for her but voters outside of St
Louis and Kansas City need to change their minds of Blunt will keep Bond's seat.
WH mistake
This comment by Gibbs will now be used by Deal if the Feds go after him for any reason before the election.  Deal will say this proves it was a plot all along.

http://www.ajc.com/news/georgi...


Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7

funny that
I should be in Massachusetts when I received news of that MA-Gov poll via twitter...

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
off topic question
is MYDD even a community anymore?  I'm just wondering, b/c every time i go there it seems like there are a bunch of diaries with only one or two comments. just wondering if there are any members/former members here  who would know.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
It's been on the decline for a long time
since a bunch of the posters went and formed OpenLeft. It's more or less been a soapbox for Jerome Armstrong's anti-Obama screeds (and pro-Brian Moran ones, when he was working for Moran) since then.
[ Parent ]
I was a member for a while
and posted a diary or two I think, but left because of the lack of activity and the "geekiness" that I enjoy here.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Jerome killed his own site
By allowing it to be overrun by PUMA types. Serves him right.
[ Parent ]
I hate to admit it
but I started my life on the Blogosphere as a parody troll on MyDD making fun of the PUMA's.  I like to think I've elevated my game since then, but probably not...

What you've said about Armstrong is too kind.  He was sub-Mark Penn during that election, both in terms of being obnoxious and being flat out wrong about everything.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
After Republicans
complained about the ad against Renacci, I tried to explain that Democrats do not have a monopoly on intellectual dishonesty. Well, here's an example from the other side. http://online.wsj.com/article/...

Probably makes you want to give money to Tom Perriello, right? :P

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

Shocking (to me) Survey USA poll
Raj Goyle quite competitive (down 49-42) in KS-04, and that with only a 2% lead among Indies.  He's taking 22% of Republicans.  With his cash edge, one would think he can win over more Indies and close the gap.

http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

Shocking (to me) Survey USA poll
Raj Goyle quite competitive (down 49-42) in KS-04, and that with only a 2% lead among Indies.  He's taking 22% of Republicans.  With his cash edge, one would think he can win over more Indies and close the gap.

http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

Not surprising
I mean he's the best we can do there.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
Tend to agree
but still thought he would be much further behind at the start than this.  May speak to his pre-primary ad blitz.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Well I'm happy.
This would be a great pickup.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
Don't believe it
SurveyUSA are looking quite ropey lately.
[ Parent ]
That poll's
crosstabs look nominally correct.  

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
woops
bad spelling again :(

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
IL-Gov and MO-Sen
Both polls look very bad.  I don't care that they're Ras polls; I normally don't dismiss a Ras election just because it's Ras.  

Blunt seems to have the momentum now, due to his anti-Obama ad.  I hope Carnahan can get a lot of airtime and rural campaigning in to stop Blunt's momentum.

How can someone as extreme as Brady be doing so well in all polls?  Some effort is needed to educate Illinois voters over how insane Brady is.

Cook has 4 changes today
And I think all are solid assessments

CO-GOV: Toss-up -> Likely Dem
AR-02: Lean GOP -> Likely GOP
FL-25: Likely GOP -> Lean GOP
NY-29: Lean GOP -> Likely GOP

I'm getting optimistic because the changes on Cook's list are getting less frequent. And 2 of the 4 changes this week are to the Dems (even though CO-GOV is under special circumstances).

Still, not bad.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

Devastating DSCC ad
[ Parent ]
NV-Sen
Harry Houdini still leads according to Mason-Dixon.

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/ey...

I can imagine the LVRJ people yelling at Brad Coker
"HOW MANY DAMN POLLS DO WE NEED TO COMMISSION BEFORE YOU SHOW HARRY REID LOSING?! GOD, WHAT IS YOUR PROBLEM? DO ANOTHER ONE RIGHT NOW!"

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Tee-hee, that was so funny! ^_^


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
LA-Sen: Ad wars begin
Vitter got his wish. Melancon is spending money now, rather than saving it for October, which is what Vitter hoped he would do. With Vitter raising a lot every quarter, and Melancon's fundraising dropping off (less than 300k last quarter), early ads favor Vitter: http://thehill.com/blogs/ballo...
The asshole's aren't playing ads in New ORleans or Baton Rouge, the two places I spend all my time, so I wont be seeing any :(
I don't think it matters either way
Vitter will win.
[ Parent ]
Who exactly are the "assholes"

[ Parent ]
Melancon and Vitter
For not letting me see their ads!  
[ Parent ]
Its a waste
to play ads in New Orleans. Not only is New Orleans less critical in statewide elections after Katrina, its always going to go like 80-20 for the Democrat. (Unless your Dollar Bill Jefferson lol)

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
New Orleans media market
Covers other areas that are important, like much of Melancon's district and Jefferson parish, which Landrieu won in 2008 and is the largest parish in the state. It also covers most of the north shore, which will go heavily for Vitter, but he can't let the area go completely untouched. The Baton Rouge and New Orleans markets cover a majority of the state probably.  
[ Parent ]
Starting now could start making Melancon competitive
get him prettier numbers which leads to the race looking more competitive and a boost in funding and such.  The trick is keep those numbers looking pretty or change at the least get people to look at your race.
[ Parent ]
Thats the problem for him
Is getting the money. If he spends it all now, he better move a lot in the polls if he wants to raise money.  
[ Parent ]
It is the basic premise of EMILY
Early money is like yeast

Question is whether the yeast is primed or spoiled?

[ Parent ]
CT-Sen
RPB (Rasmussen post-primary bounce) not as bad as expected.

http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

Other polls in gubernatorial races have Hick +12 in CO, Deal +9 in GA and Dayton +9 in MN.  

SSP Daily Digest: 8/12 (Afternoon Edition) | 84 comments

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