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SSP Daily Digest: 8/2 (Afternoon Edition)

by: Crisitunity

Mon Aug 02, 2010 at 3:22 PM EDT


WA-Sen: I'm not sure how this will work, practically speaking, but the two Tea Partiers in the race, rancher Clint Didier and fastener mogul Paul Akers, are "joining forces." They'll be doing joint ads and joint online forums for the remaining few weeks. They can't, of course, be jointly voted-for, so I don't know what the endgame is, but it probably doesn't matter, as both have been polling in the single digits in polls of the jungle primary. Apparently, it does give them a better venue for airing their grievances with the GOP establishment's selection of Dino Rossi as standard-bearer; maybe this way, Akers can distract the ref while Didier puts Rossi in a sleeper hold.

Also on the weird timing front, Washington's Republican SoS, Sam Reed, is just out with a new book on the 2004 gubernatorial election and the protracted recount and court challenges he oversaw. Relations between Reed and the rest of the state Republicans were severely tested during the recount, seeing as how the scrupulous Reed wanted to, y'know, follow the rules. While the book doesn't seem to paint Rossi in a terribly unfavorable light, it can't help but remind everyone of his "perennial candidate" status.

AZ-Gov: You might recall that NRA board member Owen Buz Mills recently ended his GOP primary campaign against the once-endangered, now-all-powerful Jan Brewer several weeks ago. Well, he's not quite done, his spokesperson is now saying: he's going to enter a Rob Simmons-style state of electoral limbo. Mills won't be spending any more money on the race, but he will leave his name on the ballot. (Other dropouts Dean Martin and John Munger have filed papers of formal withdrawal from the race.)

OR-Gov, OR-05: Now that Oregon has opted to join New York in the weird world of fusion voting, now it even has its own Independent Party trying to quirkily play it down the middle. Based on its online straw poll of members (with a vote total of a whopping 2,290), the IP gave its backing to Democrat John Kitzhaber in the gubernatorial race, but to Republican state Rep. Scott Bruun in OR-05 (instead of incumbent Dem Kurt Schrader).

TX-Gov: A number of prominent Dallas business leaders have signed on to a letter announcing their support for Bill White in the gubernatorial race. About half of the signatories, a mix of moderate Republicans and independents, are, in fact, former Kay Bailey Hutchison supporters.

WY-Gov: I think this trumps her earlier Wilford Brimley endorsement. State auditor Rita Meyer (the only woman in the four-way GOP primary field) got added to Sarah Palin's stable of Mama Grizzlies late last week.

AL-02, AL-05: The "generally conservative" Alabama Farmer's Federation handed out helpful endorsements to two Dems today: not just to Rep. Bobby Bright (who seems to fit their profile well) but also to Steve Raby, running in the 5th. Raby seems well connected with the agriculture world through his former work for ex-Sen. Howell Heflin.

MI-02, MI-03: A poll for the Grand Rapids Press, taken by Practical Political Consulting, looks at the GOP primaries in the two western Michigan open seats. In the 2nd (Peter Hoekstra's seat), former NFL player and Family Research Council executive Jay Riemersma has a small lead at 22, followed by former state Rep. Bill Huizenga and teabagging businessman Bill Cooper, both at 15, and state Sen. Wayne Kuipers at 13. In the 3rd (Vern Ehlers' seat), state Rep. Justin Amash (anointed as chosen one by the DeVos family) leads at 28, followed by African-American state Sen. Bill Hardiman at 23 and ex-Kent Co. Commissioner Steve Heacock (the moderate in the field, and Ehlers' endorsee) at 17.

FL-12: We keep mentally writing this race off due to Lori Edwards' paltry fundraising, and then polling evidence to the contrary shows up. For the second time, the Edwards camp has released an internal poll giving them a lead in this R+6 open seat. Edwards leads GOP ex-state Rep. Dennis Ross 35-32 in a poll taken by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner. The catch here is one of the most legitimate Tea Party candidates anywhere is here: Randy Wilkinson, a Polk Co. Commissioner who briefly sought the GOP nomination before deciding to go the third-party route. Wilkinson polls at 20%, although we'll have to see if the near-broke Wilkinson can keep those numbers up through November.

TN-03: Newt Gingrich handed out a last-minute seal of approval in the GOP primary in the 3rd. He's backing the more-or-less establishment candidate, former state GOP chair Robin Smith. Smith's main opponent is Chuck Fleischmann, a partly-self-funding attorney who seems tighter with the Mike Huckabee crowd than the teabaggers.

WA-03: The Beltway media seems to take it as an article of faith that GOP state Rep. Jaime Herrera is going to be Denny Heck's opponent in November, but David Castillo shouldn't be counted out. Not being on the ground, they wouldn't pick up on the general sense of underwhelmingness that seems to surround Herrera, but it seems like they would, at some point, have noticed that nearly all the endorsements of consequence in the district have gone to Castillo. He got endorsements from the newspapers in Vancouver, Longview, and Centralia, as well as the out-of-district Seattle Times. AG Rob McKenna, probably the state's best-liked Republican, had endorsed Castillo before Rep. Brian Baird's retirement and Herrera's entry, but he's been pointedly sticking by his endorsement, hosting a Castillo fundraiser last week.

House: Nate Silver's out with a new toy that SSPers will certainly be interested in: having found that Democratic House candidates tend to overperform vis-à-vis presidential numbers in districts with lower median household income, he's created a new index that's a mashup of prez numbers and income, called the Partisan Propensity Index. (He looked at only results in open seat races, which eliminates the main problem with trying to fit House numbers on top of prez numbers, which is the overwhelming staying power of incumbents.) At the end of the day, it's still not too different from PVI, inasmuch as Chet Edwards has the worst district of any Dem and Joe Cao has the worst district of any GOPer, but it does reflect the reality that suburban Sun Belt districts that are truly swingy at the presidential level are a harder nut for Dems to crack at the House level than rural Appalachian districts that are red at the presidential level.

Rasmussen:
NV-Gov: Rory Reid (D) 40%, Brian Sandoval (R) 50%
OK-Gov: Jari Askins (D) 36%, Mary Fallin (R) 57%
PA-Gov: Dan Onorato (D) 39%, Tom Corbett (R) 50%
PA-Sen: Joe Sestak (D) 39%, Pat Toomey (R) 45%
SC-Gov: Vincent Sheheen (D) 35%, Nikki Haley (R) 49%
WA-Sen: Patty Murray (D-inc) 49%, Dino Rossi (R) 47%
WA-Sen: Patty Murray (D-inc) 48%, Clint Didier (R) 45%
WA-Sen: Patty Murray (D-inc) 48%, Paul Akers (R) 42%
WI-Gov: Tom Barrett (D) 45%, Mark Neumann (R) 44%
WI-Gov: Tom Barrett (D) 43%, Scott Walker (R) 50%

Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 8/2 (Afternoon Edition)
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NE-sen nelson "not" considering a party switch
http://politicalwire.com/archi...

In the event that it has crossed his mind, remember what happened to specter.  the only best party switches seem to work is if it's based truly on ideology, not politics.  the best (or at least my favorite example of this) is jim jeffords.  He had always been moderate and switched AFTER winning re-election.  there wasn't any electoral need to switch.  if nelson switches for just this reason, he will almost certainly lose the primary.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.


by "this reason"
i mean if he switches to win, because he's up for re-election in 2012.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
Agreed
The Republicans already have numerous candidate who could knock Nelson out easily and Nelson running as a Republican would not stop them. They primary people for just voting somewhat moderately, no way they would support an HCR voting, Obama supporting Dem. He would stand NO chance whatsoever and he knows it. No his best route is as a Democrat, but even then I doubt he will win against the states popular Governor or Attorney General. I could see him retiring and switching parties as a final screw you. I hope not though but I would not be the least bit surprised.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
are either the gov of AG
interested in running?  

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
gov OR ag
i can't type

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
From
everything I have heard the Gov is more than likely going to run (The last poll I saw showed him leading Nelson with more than 60% of the vote) and the AG has indicated he will run if the Gov does not. In case you are wondering I can't think of the name of the Gov or AG and do not want to look it up so that is why I am referring to them as Gov and AG.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
i think the gov is heiniman
maybe.  i don';t want to look it up either

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
Yeah
that sounds right. I am horrible with names.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
it is
and Stephen Six is the AG.

[ Parent ]
Thats
Kansas. At least I know now I'm not the only one that mixes up Kansas and Nebraska! NE's AG is Jon Bruning.  

[ Parent ]
I even took the time to look it up because other people wouldnt
heh

[ Parent ]
To
be fair the IN-09 poll might not have been completely their fault. Fire Dog Lake, who commissioned the poll had them put in a bunch of negative things about HCR in before the Sodrel V. Hill matchup and I believe that heavily affected the results. They want Hill and all of the other blue dogs to go down and that was the point of there commissioning of the polls. They were trying to get Hill and other blue dogs to vote against HCR, the purist assholes. I mean Sodrel released an internal showing him up only two just a bit later. I am not sure if I blame SUSA or not. They just did what FDL told them to do.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
The usual caveats on FL-12
Internal poll, and I think it way overestimates what the third party candidate will get.  

Yeah.
That's where I'm from, and I'd be shocked if they actually elected a Democrat.

[ Parent ]
This poll has had an 11 point swing in two weeks...
That's just nuts.  

[ Parent ]
Gallup's
Generic ballot swings big every few weeks.  

[ Parent ]
True, but I don't remember it being this crazy...
The problem was, a lot of commentators used their poll that gave a six point advantage to the Dems as a way of saying the Dems were stopping their slide. Now they will probably use this poll to say the opposite. I agree with you GOPVOTER, and I would add this poll is pretty worthless until the fall.  

[ Parent ]
It is an odd poll
Every week it fluctuated between a GOP lead then a tie then back to a GOP lead then a tie again and so on. Until the last two weeks when Dems lead by 6 then 4. Bizarre.

[ Parent ]
NC-Sen
Burr approval at 32%, with 44% disapproving according to new PPP poll:

http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

Full poll out tomorrow. Is it crazy to think that the Republicans will gain, at most, only three seats? Things don't seem that bad anymore...

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan


So here's a question I have to throw out about PPP and N.C.
Obviously, tomorrow they will have the North Carolina race all tied up at least (maybe even Marshall ahead - Burr favorabilities are down six points compared to their last poll).

But on NC, PPP is an outlier - that is, if you look at the other three pollsters who have looked at the race in the past month (Rasmussen, Survey USA and Civitas), PPP have Burr doing the worst.

So on the one had, PPP originates from North Carolina, so they should know how to poll in their backyard. On the other hand, Tom Jensen really does want to get Richard Burr - he makes no secret of that.

Anyway, all of this is just food for thought as we celebrate the PPP results tomorrow.  


[ Parent ]
One other thing with this....
So PPP is saying that Burr's negatives have gone up six points since their last poll. What exactly is driving this? It's not like Burr has been in the news at all. Again, I'm just asking. (possibly because I really want to believe this is true - that Burr is really in trouble, but I also am concerned about some things regarding the polling)

I'm predicting one thing - North Carolina is going to be the great battle between Rasmussen and PPP this year. I don't think there's any place where their polls diverge so much.  


[ Parent ]
yeah
aside from being senator who (not to be confused with the far superior doctor) what has he done to court this wrath.  he's been a cookie cutter conservative rep in a rep year.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
Not just Rasmussen but SurveyUSA as well
It showed Burr up 10 in July

http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...


[ Parent ]
Yeah, I'm not saying PPP is wrong here...
I just note that they do seem to be the outlier (a position usually occupied by Rasmussen).

[ Parent ]
There won't be any "battle," not "great" and not "small." They will converge by October, or...
...maybe even sooner.

This has been the pattern every cycle, that the frequent pollsters who diverge all cycle suddenly start to converge after Labor Day or at least by October.  We just don't know where they'll converge.

Personally I think Burr wins by 10.  In a neutral environment and if Marshall was a more prolific fundraiser, I don't doubt she'd win, Burr would be toast.  But in this environment, I think Burr wins comfortably.

But man I am glad this race is on the map, as I've been wrong often enough this year, sometimes to make me happy and sometimes to make me sad, that I don't take my own NC-Sen prediction to the bank at all.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Nah
I really don't think Jensen would fudge the numbers to make Burr more vulnerable. If he wins and PPP says a Marshall victory, it's even sweeter for the Burr camp and it hurts PPP's credibility.

I trust PPP the most out of any pollster right now. Doubly true in their own backyard.  

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan


[ Parent ]
I want to trust them...
But they are the outlier on NC Senate, at this point.

May not mean anything. Just something to be aware of.  


[ Parent ]
As of today, no there aren't
As usual Rassmussen is the outlier.

+5, +7, +10, +15... the outlier is clearly +15.

+5 and +7 are essentially the same, as are +7 and +10.  (And average is 9.2%.)

There is no possible way to spin PPP as the outlier.  7.33 is the average without the Ras +15 outlier, and 7.33 is within the margin of error.


[ Parent ]
SUSA was the outlier in VA-Gov 2009 for a looooong time......
SUSA had McDonnell and also Cuccinelli and Bolling up by double-digit margins when everyone else, even Rasmussen had it much closer, all of them in the single digits.  And SUSA's monthly numbers in that election never budged downward.  They ended up right.

I DON'T buy that they "were right" in July when they had McDonnell by 15 even then.

But the point is when polls in a race diverge, you just don't know what polls today will look good on election night, because the pollsters all converge as it gets close, voter preferences harden, and the polling results become more consistent regardless of methodology.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Dustin Ingalis
says that in any other year Burr would be in the extinct category, not even endangered. I wonder if that is a general statement or about the results tomorrow

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
candidates with the most money win 87% of the time.
The study also found that, "candidates who collected and spent more campaign cash than their rivals, won 87 percent of their races."

http://politicalwire.com/archi...

Of course, entrenched incumbents running against cannon-fodder opponents probably distort that stat.
But still.


SurveyUSA for Civitas
http://www.whkp.com/index.php?...

This is NC-11

Shuler 45% (D)
MIller 44% (R)

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26


Not buying it.
Shuler have more of a race than in 2008, but he'll win. Miller isn't a strong candidate.  

[ Parent ]
Tough District to Poll
That's a tough district to poll. But Shuler's definitely in a fight. It's been hurt by the economy and the electorate will be very different from 06 and 08.

[ Parent ]
Shouldn't Survey USA do
some soul searching, as many of its polls, including this one, are more favorable to Republicans than Republican internals?  Miller's own poll 6 weeks ago showed him down 12.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Maybe
SUSA is right. With no one else polling, how do we know they are wrong?  

[ Parent ]
What concerns me a little...
Is we are rapidly getting to the point on this site where the only pollster we seem to trust is PPP. Not that they aren't good, but (as I write in another thread), there are races like North Carolina Senate where they are the outlier.

This makes me wish R2K hadn't imploded like they did.  


[ Parent ]
People forget statistics
1 in 20 polls are outliers -- and should be outliers.

If you don't see a few outliers from firms who poll frequently, that is also a reason to be suspicious. Random variation is to be expected with random samples.

And it's not like every 20th poll is an outlier. You could easily have 3 outliers in a row, followed by several dozen polls that are spot on (within the MoE).

When two polls confirm a similar result, the probability that the result is true is much greater, assuming different (assuming valid) methodologies. That is also statistics.


[ Parent ]
I don't think these are random
1 in 20 outliers.  I think Survey USA's model is apocalyptic for Dems.  I have seen several instances now where they are more optimistic for Republicans than Republican internals (OH-01 and IN-09 come to mind immediately).  I've never seen anything like it.  Could be dead on accurate.  I've just never seen anything like it.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
The eye normally spots the variances
And when variances have an impact, such as against our incumbents / favorite candidates, it gets even more attention.

OTOH, putting together proof of statistical variance, outside the norm, is hard work. It includes data collection for a lot of "expected" results, which is boring work to many.

I give Nate credit for trying to keep track. If you can prove him wrong, more power to you!


[ Parent ]
PPP provides objective data other pollsters don't
Party ID is a pure bullshit identifier, but Obama/Mccain (or last statewide race) actual voting numbers is the only way to gauge real patterns and make comparisons.

If one Dem canidate is running at the exact same percentage as Obama did and the same for Rep candidate/McCain did, then we know what the race comes down to... who turns out.

On the other hand, if a Dem or Rep is overperforming or underperforming Obama/Mccain, then that says a LOT that simply can't be brushed off.

I suspect most pollsters aren't willing to show the Obama/Mccain numbers because that would expose their extremism in setting their samples, or at least raise uestions about the samples.

PPP is the key pollster to pay attention to this cycle, not because they are "right", but rather because they give us better data to judge.


[ Parent ]
I pretty much trust Mason-Dixon too
and Quinnipiac, although they vaccilate a lot.  The polling industry has left me despondent and confounded.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Actually
Miller released an internal about a week or two showing him down twelve. I am not one to downplay every single bad poll but the more I think about it this could be an outlier or then again it could be accurate.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Not an isolated instance.
See my comments above and below.  Survey USA's 2010 polls are apocalyptic for Dems in the House.  Never seen a public pollster so down on one party compared to other public pollsters AND Republican internal polling.  They've been a great pollster and maybe they're on the right track.  God help us all if they are.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Of course
any poll could be right, and we'll never know until election day.  But I have NEVER seen a pollster more optimistic on one party's chances than that party's internal polling as often as Survey USA (at least Survey USA's House polling) vis-a-vis the Republicans.  If Survey USA's current models are right, you're going to be one hell of a happy guy come election day, because Republicans are going to pick up 80+ seats.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
What does "soul searching" mean? They're reputable, and in fact a Q-poll staffer I met a couple weekends ago said...
...that Survey USA was the ONE robopollster he thought produced good results.  The guy I'm talking about is a trained statistician who is employed by the Quinnipiac Polling Institute as a data analyst, and he's a political junkie......election polling is his entire passion and he's a trained expert.  And he vouched for SUSA--his personal opinion, not speaking for the Q-poll or anyone else who works there.

I think all these House polls just confirm that we're in deep trouble.  We're going to lose seats in the 30s or 40s.  The House is a tossup.  We don't know if people like Shuler will lose.  There were Republicans in his same boat in 2006 and 2008 who survived against all odds, and there were people who thought they were safe who crashed.

All these polls are depressing for sure, but I'm done dismissing them all or picking them apart.  Just know it should be no surprise that seats like these are in jeopardy.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
If
we do in fact lose the House this year, and I do think that is a real possibility then you are 100% right some people in likely to safe seats are going to surprise everyone and go down while some who are in tossups are going to shock the hell out of us and win. One race does not necessarily gauge how another race is going to turn out.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
I think I've said it again and again above at this point.
You're being a little patronizing.  Survey USA is not a bad pollster.  Possibly the best historically in fact.  But I have never seen a public pollster more optimistic for one party than that party's released internals than Survey USA this cycle for the Republicans.  

By "soul searching," I mean maybe their turnout assumptions are too optimistic for Republicans.  Maybe they're perfect.  These results that are better for Republicans that Republican internals just make me wonder.  Wondering is still allowed I think...

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


[ Parent ]
Im already am imaging a scenario
Where the DCCC creates a "Former Guns" program that focuses on getting former Congresscritters to run for their seats again with Obama at the top of the ticket and most likely a more positive cycle for us in 2012.  (You can only go up from 2010.)

[ Parent ]
You could always
Go to 1980. Which is what I'm hoping for. Too bad we don't have a clear Ronald Reagan.  

[ Parent ]
And one
area of the country which was reliably Democratic wasn't about to turn against you big time like what happened in 1980. You guys really gotta stop looking for the next Ronald Reagan. That would be us looking for the next FDR every cycle. (Chris Christie seems like a hot commodity right now among the GOP...if only because he has the gall to take the unions head on in NJ. But he's ruled out running for President in the foreseeable future.)

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
The only problem
With looking for another Reagan is that Reagan wouldn't win a Republican primary today.  

[ Parent ]
Haha
you're the first Republican to openly admit that. Most rank and file Republicans claim Ronald Reagan is the golden standard, but they wouldn't vote for him today...


19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Its because
He believed in a big tent. If you are a big tent Republican, you are automatically labeled a RINO.  

[ Parent ]
steele planning to run for re-election as rnc chair
two more years!  two more years!

http://politicalwire.com/archi...

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.


even if that blog story is credible,
and I don't necessarily buy it, Steele's "creative accounting" of the RNC's accounts will likely do him in.  

[ Parent ]
I don't know
But I do know I want it.  

[ Parent ]
HI-01: GOP pollster finds Djou up 8
Whatever.
  I am not going to believe any Hawaii polls this time.  Hanabusa outperformed the special election polls.

24, Male, GA-05

[ Parent ]
Jerry Brown
has $23 million in the bank for the fall. He's gonna need every last penny....

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/...

19, Male, Independent, CA-12


Good news
That's not chump change - e-Meg will outspend him, but not by as much as she would like to.  

[ Parent ]
And
Loretta Sanchez just took the first steps towards running for governor in 2014, she's filed paperwork to start raising money for a 2014 bid.

http://blogs.sacbee.com/capito...

19, Male, Independent, CA-12


[ Parent ]
That could be a placeholder
Tom McClintock got in trouble for this.  He had pulled papers to run for some statewide office while he was seeking the open seat in CA-4.  The reason, if I'm remembering rightly, was so he could transfer the money in his State Senate account to another account he controlled and he didn't actually plan to run for that office.  Likewise Sanchez might want to start raising money for some sort of state election and hasn't decided which yet.  I wouldn't read too much into it.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

[ Parent ]
I hope
she backs off if Brown wins, though I suppose he could decide to call it a day after one term...I think Sanchez would be a good get for Senate in '12 if DiFi retires.  

20, Democrat, KY-01

[ Parent ]
Erick Erickson is fucking nuts!
http://www.redstate.com/erick/...
Not that we didn't already know that, but this is just ridiculous!  

Wow
that was umm...he's been reading too many conspiracy novels lately. I can't believe CNN hired this guy to be a commentator.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
I'll
spare you all the misery of going to Redstate by posting some of what Erickson said.

If Mike Castle becomes the next United States Senator from Delaware he is going to get sworn in, serve a bit, then become a Democrat, resign, and let Beau Biden get an appointment.

It's a done deal. The deal has been made already. I'm hearing this not just from Christine O'Donnell people, but party regulars in Delaware, some of whom support Castle. It is insane.



19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Boy, we are all working in synch today, aren't we?


[ Parent ]
THIS!!!......
I have lost all respect for corporate TV news networks because of who they hire.  It's unacceptable that CNN gave Beck his own show on their Headline News channel and now Erickson his own platform.  It's unacceptable that MSNBC gives a platform to racist, anti-semitic Pat Buchanan.  And Fox News is unacceptable for almost all their hires, with an isolated few individuals like Shep Shepard the rare exceptions.

These people simply should not be given such important platforms in the national conversation.

And even on the left, I've grown tired and bored of Keith Olbermann and Rachel Maddow and Ed Schulz.  I like their bottom-line politics for being on the left, but I don't leave their shows feeling like I learned anything, and even from my own ideological allies I get tired of emotional hyperventilation.  I'm glad we at least have these people out there so that we have something countering the wingnuts, but I would be much happier with the CNN 1980s model returning.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Gosh, I miss Bernie Shaw
and Wolf Blitzer is still a blithering idiot. (I haven't watched a cable news show in weeks.)

[ Parent ]
CNN
has really gone down the drain lately. I used to watch them a lot but I hardly ever do anymore. They still preach the "we are non partisan and above politics" but they have been drastically trying to get MSNBC and Fox viewers by putting on extremist talking heads. I can't stand Fox, for obvious reasons. I am not that big on MSNBC, I dislike Olberman and can't stand Schultz. I occasionally watch Hardball, but sometimes he can be a concern troll. I like Maddow, I know she is partisan but she is really good at what she does. I occasionally watch Maddow or Mathews just to hear what I want to hear but I get all of my real news from the internet or the newspapers. Cable news is extremely unreliable.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
News networks today are entirely captive to a personality-driven model, and I understand why......
Personalities are what drive ratings.  And there's a big market for the shock news and politics jock, which is what Beck and O'Reilly and so many others really are.

So I wish for an evolution where someone realizes there might be market for story-driven news.  Maybe there isn't now.  But I hope there will be in the future.  I don't think the News Hour model will ever thrive with big ratings, but there's got to be a way to make the news itself more appealing and draw in viewers, if not now than in the future if the personality model runs its course.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
I love listening to NPR/MinnesotaPR
They always do such a great job of doing the story-telling to draw you in.

[ Parent ]
Agreed!
Let's not forget CNN giving a prime time spot to Elliot Spitzer.

It would be nice if 1 news network went in a different direction and made a play for serious news and intelligent debate.

Kind of like a US BBC News model. Put interesting reports from far off places (TV news like you can get in the Economist) and have intelligent intellectual pundits instead of the usual boorish bores.

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[ Parent ]
I was just about to point people to this...
GOPVOTER you beat me to this.

For those who don't want to link to Redstate, Erickson claims two things:

1). Castle has a secret deal with the Dems in Delaware if he wins to become a Democrat, resign and let Beau Biden fill the Senate seat. Erickson assures us "this is a done deal"

Secondly, he tells us that, contrary to every public poll that's been released, O'Donnell is ahead of Chris Coons, while Castle is not.

Wow - I realized Erickson is out there. But he should be called on the carpet for this one. As the commentators at Red State (mostly) point out, he has no evidence on any of this (and in the case of his claims on polling, the evidence is actually contrary to what he says).

Not that anyone should take this guy seriously, but apparently CNN did.  


[ Parent ]
This guy is bonkers, but unfortunately/thankfully, most Delaware Republicans are not
My understanding is the Tea Party crowd only makes up a miniscule chunk of the Delaware GOP. Mark my words - Christine O'Donnell will be lucky to break 20% here.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
OMG
That is fucking hilarious. I did not click it at first because I thought it would just talk about how he is a RINO or whatever but he actually has "information" that Castle is going to become a Democrat.  It cracked me up. Also what the hell is up with him saying that O'Donnell leads in the general while Castle does not. That is bull. True O'Donnell led by a little bit in a Rasmussen but Castle led by much more. What an idiot. I would love O'Donnell to win the primary but I agree with Andyroo, it is not going to happen. What state is Erickson from? Could he challenge someone in the primary, that would be awesome. Please let it be Maine!

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Georgia
In Marshall's district. He is an elected official. I wonder how long it takes people in Macon to realize he's not mentally stable.  

[ Parent ]
He's an elected official?
whaaaaaa???

[ Parent ]
He's on the Macon City Council
If I remember correctly, he ran unopposed.

[ Parent ]
Which was
A big mistake.  

[ Parent ]
Hey if you want to move to Macon
and run against Erickson, I'd certainly cut a check for you.

I don't like the values of conservatives and Republicans, but I think you guys have the right to be represented by people other than the Erick Ericksons, David Vitters, and Rush Limbaughs.


[ Parent ]
Thered
Be a problem with carpetbagger charges. I need to find someone who lives in his district.  

[ Parent ]
What an amazing thread
I know a born again family who can not join any church because none agree with their specific religous beliefs on 100% of the issues.  The "energized" GOP looks to be  creating nothing much more than a whole lot of "parties of one".

[ Parent ]
Apparently
I'm a RINO for speaking out against Erick Erickson.
This is what someone told me:
Then take your pathetic RINO self to Daily Kos....

because THIS IS ON REDSTATE!

Lot of punks trolling this thread trying to convince CONSERVATIVES to back a Political Class HACK who should have been retired a LONG TIME AGO!

BTW if you all do not like what Erick has to say by all means this is a FREE COUNTRY right up until Mike Castle votes for Card Check after the November elections and you can take your high and mighty selves elsewhere.


Before ya'll figure out who I am: Some of the things I say there are false about who I support and don't, because if I say I support Castle, my posts will be ignored

[ Parent ]
I particularly liked that one
See my reply to you below -- JadedByPolitics is one of my favorite people to read for the sheer vitriol she spews out.  That woman seems to wake up angry and have her day go downhill from there!

[ Parent ]
They all do
There are very few sensible people there. The only two regular front page posters I like are Moe Lane and Vladimir. I cant stand erickson and neil stevens. The rest are just meh. Probably my favorite posters there are rdelbov, proudgop, and swamp_yankee, who is from MA and me and him have teamed up a lot to support more moderate, electable candidates. I think he may have left though in frustration at constantly being blasted.  

[ Parent ]
Neil Stevens is the worst IMO
He is an asshole who simply bans anyone who doesn't toe the line 100% on everything.  A true Stalinist, IMO.

[ Parent ]
He's hilarious!!!
He gets so wound up and self-righteous whenever he feels any possible type of slight or insult -- I'm waiting for him to challenge someone to a duel by saying "Sir, I demand satisfaction!"

[ Parent ]
Poor Neil
He was a small-l libertarian in college, and open-minded enough to take a Supreme Court in American Politics class from a prof he knew to be a hardcore liberal.  I wonder what's happened in the intervening years to make him the way he is today.

[ Parent ]
I so
want to go to that site just to publish an diary insulting Chris Christie who's apparently become the GOP's new hero. (I'd probably be vaporized though.)

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
You would be
even if you did it from a conservative point of view, i.e. claim that Christie is just another "RINO".

[ Parent ]
And see, Ive always liked Neil Stevens
because he's the smartest.  Moe Lane is the at the bottom because he does zero research for anything he posts.  He had to correct himself when he said Barney Frank represented Boston in a post, something anyone who actually looked up would have known easily.  But nope, he assumed that because Frank is the gay guy, he must represent Boston.  Total disservice to citizen journalism.

He's worthless, but he hasn't banned me yet!


[ Parent ]
I like hime because
He's not as much of an Erick Erickson. He's like in between me and Erickson as far as who he supports in primaries goes.  

[ Parent ]
Jaded is a real character
she's so crazy and over the top, that I sometimes think she might be a leftie plant.  Or maybe she's just that crazy.

[ Parent ]
God these guys are stupid
Sweet Jesus, I never thought anyone could possibly be that brain-dead about freaking Delaware.

Well, I suppose that's one thing I agree with Erick Erickson on, and that's that I really hope O'Donnell wins the primary ;).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
hedgehogreport
You seem to be the kind of Republican I am.  There are more sane people at the above site than free republic or red state.  Not everyone is sane there, but most are.

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7

[ Parent ]
How have you not been thrown off there?!?
It's one thing to be extremely on the left or right, but it's quite another to lose touch with reality -- and Erick Erickson has gone over to the bad place.  This is just one in a long line of either overly crude and beyond mean-spirited statements (like calling Justice Souter a goat fucking child molester in a tweet -- goodle it if you haven't heard about that one), to self-aggrandizingly bizarre beharior (like saying he knew who was behind the smears on Nikki Haley, and then saying "just kidding, I don't").

I think there are some smart people at Redstate, and at times I've read well-written analyses of a variety of issues from a perspective very different from mine -- and (gasp!!) learned some things.

Maybe even more than that, have you noticed just how nasty everyone there is with each other -- let alone what they have to say about the left?  Even now, when they're riding a political wave, are positioned to win the fall elections,  you think they'd be happy -- but no, they are on edge like a crack addict waiting for a fix (or like I was waiting for my morning coffee last week and they accidently gave me decaf!!.  It's like you put a comma in the wrong place and it sets off an unbelievable fury of indignation (and usually results in someone being called a RINO).


[ Parent ]
Oh the comments section there is the best
Ive learned so much about the tea-baggers there.  Overall, quite subconsciously racist, but very varying degrees of intelligence and extremism.

I was shocked when I eared Erickson say some birther ruined CPAC by drawing attention away from actual issues instead of some crackpot theory that is birtherism.  They are a complicated bunch, and Redstate is the window I use to figure them out, which is hard to do.

I read so many comments about how the census has no business asking for their race.  But wait, you aren't complaining that it asks for phone number, even that made me pause.  I read another comment about how Thurmond was the last third-party candidate to get electoral votes and that reflects his ability to attract a broad base of voters which speaks to the broad appeal of limited government.  What a trip!

If you dont read Red State, i suggest you do.  It's best with beer.


[ Parent ]
I need
Something a little stronger than beer to read that place!

[ Parent ]
Everything except driving goes better with bourbon!


[ Parent ]
Even driving does
Then the dumb asses that they let drive don't bother you!  

[ Parent ]
Erick Erickson is leading a cult at Redstate
Seriously, that place is one of the most totalitarian environments that I have seen.  One disagreement with the Jim Jones of the site and you are called a RINO or banned.  There is no room for honest discussion or disagreement of any kind.  Joseph Stalin would have admired Redstate and Erickson.

I don't like dKos for similar reasons, but there is a lot more of an ability to disagree there and thus free flowing discussion.  That's not to say that some of the users are not authoritarian, i.e. if you disagree on foreign policy, Israel, or enhanced interrogations, there will be plenty of hysterical nuts ready to claim you are a troll.  


[ Parent ]
Hah you know
Someone sent that to me this morning, and I thought to myself, "No wonder sane Republicans hang out at SSP - RedState is just fucking nuts." And then you proved me exactly right!

[ Parent ]
Haha
Yeah, all, what, 5 of us now without Ryan? We have me, MassGOP, Ireland, INRepublican, and doug tuttle, who everyone keeps telling me is Indy but has been sounding more Republican lately.  

[ Parent ]
How can anyone
Not vote for Tom Ganley? http://www.politicsdaily.com/2...
I mean, the guy took down the Cleveland mob!

That is one f'ed up story
Assuming all of that is true, wow, Ganley is one courageous man.  I think what the FBI did, using him to get at more of the bad guys was actually quite reckless and put him and his family in danger.  

The strange thing is, I never really thought of Cleveland as having a problem with organized crime.  Sure there's violence, but it's all random, some guy shot somebody else because of a dispute, kind of stuff, not stuff like extortion and mob killings.  You go to Youngstown for that shit.  

As a democrat, I think Tom Ganley is a good person, and who is an extremely successful businessman.  As far as I can tell he has good moral values and would be refreshingly honest (I think, you can never really tell) as a politician too.  Truthfully, I would've rooted for him in the Senate primary against Rob Portman and had he won I'd be voting for him in the general against Lee Fisher, who I don't personally care for all that much. (Had it been Ganley v Brunner though I would be all-in for Brunner).  But as it played out, I don't really see why Betty Sutton should get dumped.  She's a loyal democrat in a fairly democratic district.  If she loses it will be almost entirely because of money and the national environment and Ganley will probably struggle to repeat his victory in 2012 with both Barack Obama and Sherrod Brown leading the ballot.

Ganley's a good guy though, if he wins I won't really be throwing a temper tantrum.

On a side note - I actually got a robo-call this evening from a 527 called Americans for Prosperity, it was a diatribe against Betty Sutton's "votes for bankrupting America".  Friggin a.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13


[ Parent ]
Wow!
If its true the guy is a hero. Ganley seems like a really stand up guy even if you disagree with him politically.

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[ Parent ]
Mailed in my absentee ballot for the GA-SoS (D) runoff
Voted for Georganna Sinkfield.  The runoff is much quieter on the Democratic side than the Republican side.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

How's the campaign for Repub Gov going
I haven't been down there since the original primary, but that runoff could be exciting.  Did Johnson or Oxendine endorse?  I'm guessing Handle is favored, but if Deal got a Johnson endorsement I thought it could actually be close.

[ Parent ]
Politico bitter?
I think Politico is bitter about Josh Kraushaar leaving them. He was one of their best writers, and right after he leaves, they write this: http://www.politico.com/news/s...
He thinks they are bitter too: http://twitter.com/HotlineJosh...

I thought that was a dumbshit story
What they said about Reid Wilson was utter crap. Also, how can Politico pretend to objectively write about... Politico? Especially when they claim to be a big part of the story of a rival's alleged demise? It's totally un-serious for them to pretend they can write this story objectively.

[ Parent ]
I guess we can rule out
A Gov or Sen bid by Cathy McMorris Rodgers in 2012. She's having a baby in December. http://twitter.com/cathymcmorr...

Good
for her. That does not necessarily take her out of the running though. I mean if she was a man that had just announced his wife was expecting would we be writing him out? Didn't Palin have a baby right before she ran for Governor? Just Saying.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Yeah
But the man wouldn't have just given birth.  

[ Parent ]
Didn't Gillibrand in NY just have a kid
It was 2008, and she was an incumbent, but still.  

[ Parent ]
Yeah
But she didn't run in a competitive statewide race right after. Rodgers would likely have to start campaigning in 2011 to compete with Cantwell's money.  

[ Parent ]
Pretty
good stump speech from Michael Bennet, even if it was at a press conference. (Note there were Romanoff supporters there too protesting so it wasn't a really controlled environment.)



19, Male, Independent, CA-12


Kirk, Alexi will be candidates in special election
http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/ey...
A judge ruled the candidates for the IL Sen special election would be the same as the general election, allowing Kirk and Giannoulias to collect an additional $2,400 from maxed out donors and as much as $4,800 from first time donors.  

AZ-08 Republican primary
What does anyone know about Jesse Kelly? Is he Sharron Angle in pants, or is he  more controlled like Rubio or Haley? I don't see Patton winning the primary. Kelly has raised enough to where the anti-establishment mood will carry him. If heavily underfunded challengers are winning, I can't see how he doesn't win when he is well funded and had a lot of support before Patton entered.  

Are you saying Sharon Angle doesn't wear pants?
Or is she some sort of female centaur?

[ Parent ]
A male sharron angle
There.  

[ Parent ]
no centaurs
brownback's getting rid of 'em

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)

[ Parent ]
Over my dead body <n/t>


[ Parent ]
Kelly has been in the race a lot longer than Paton
He's done some decent fundraising. Paton's fundraising numbers dropped off a cliff after his huge 1Q haul, so it may be a sign that support for Paton is a mile wide and an inch deep. Honestly, if Kelly wins the primary, I'd probably rank AZ-08 as close to safe. I just don't see him being competitive.

[ Parent ]

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