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SSP Daily Digest: 7/13 (Afternoon Edition)

by: Crisitunity

Tue Jul 13, 2010 at 4:02 PM EDT


KY-Sen: Jack Conway is pulling in some big fundraising numbers now that Dems are seeing an opening here. He raised $1.4 million last quarter (although $400K of that was a loan from himself). That tops Rand Paul's $1.1 million raised, although Paul will point out that all of his haul came from donors. No word on either side's CoH.

LA-Sen: It seems like the scandal that's emerged surrounding David Vitter's employment of violent aide Brent Furer was what pulled ex-state supreme court justice Chet Traylor into a last-minute credible challenge to Vitter in the GOP primary. Traylor says "if Vitter was in good shape, I wouldn't be running," and his camp says they'll be focusing on Vitter's "personal foibles" rather than ideological differences. In fact, Traylor's campaign manager (whom the Monroe local newspaper identifies as "sweet potato kingpin" Lev Dawson) says "I don't think there's a difference politically." Traylor also tells ABC News that many local GOP establishment figures urged his last-minute entry out of fears that Vitter may be too badly damaged politically to survive the general against Charlie Melancon. Meanwhile, we've all known that Vitter is quite willing to experiment with interesting new, um, practices, but as he seeks to move even further right in view of Traylor's challenge, he's now going birther-curious.

NC-Sen: If there's a reason Richard Burr is able to hold on to the "cursed" seat this year, it's going to be his bank account. The GOP freshman Senator raised $1.9 million last quarter, and is sitting on $6.3 million CoH. While Elaine Marshall seems to have gotten a good fundraising boost after the Democratic runoff, she's likely to have only a fraction of that.

SC-Sen: Be afraid. Be verrrrrrrrry afraid. (Alvin Greene is about to give his first formal speech as candidate, addressing a local NAACP chapter on Saturday.)

WA-Sen: Here's the good news for Patty Murray: she had a $1.6 million quarter, which is a lot of money in the "other" Washington. She's sitting on $6.8 million CoH. The bad news is that conservative group American Action Network is spending $750K on a statewide buy for TV ads attacking Murray. The ad, continuing in Demon Sheep/Boxer Blimp impresario Fred Davis's avant-garde performance-art tradition, features various Joe and Jane Sixpacks lying in the dirt getting walked all over by an unseen figure in white tennis shoes.

WV-Sen: Joe Manchin's giving a little more clarity to his timeline in West Virginia. He says he expects to fill Robert Byrd's seat with a temporary appointment by "this Sunday," possibly as early as Friday if the special legislative session about the special election is done by then. He'll announce after that (probably by Monday) whether he intends to run in the special.

CO-Gov: This is a surprisingly amateurish thing to get taken down over: the Denver Post has observed that a series of articles on water rights "written" by Republican ex-Rep. Scott McInnis as part of a 2005-06 fellowship were simply plagiarized from articles written twenty years earlier by Gregory Hobbs, who's now a Colorado Supreme Court justice. The foundation McInnis was working for would like the salary returned to them that they paid him. It's unclear how much damage this will do to McInnis, or how this stacks up compared with allegations of dishonesty leveled at Mark Kirk and Richard Blumenthal... but locked in a dead heat with John Hickenlooper, McInnis doesn't have any margin of error to shed a few points over character issues. (For what it's worth, RCP seems to think he's finished. Too bad the only GOP alternative, Dan Maes, is completely broke and in campaign-finance hot water.)

IL-Gov: The DGA is out with a new ad running on Chicago area TV stations, trying to introduce the area's many residents to downstate state Sen. Bill Brady and disabuse them of any notion that he's the sort of GOP moderate that's typically occupied the state house over the last few decades. The ad points out his extreme positions on reproductive health and minimum wage.

TN-Gov: Republican Knoxville mayor Bill Haslam is still the man with the money, although everybody's moved into the seven digits. Haslam has $2 million CoH, compared with Ron Ramsey's $1.35 million and Zach Wamp's $1.29 million. On the Dem side, Mike McWherter has $1.5 million CoH, having raised $315K last quarter.

AR-01: Radio broadcaster Rick Crawford, the GOP nominee, has a small cash edge in the 1st, as Democrat Chad Causey's pretty depleted after having to go through a runoff. Crawford raised $131K post-primary and has $221K CoH. Causey raised $416K over the quarter, but spent $420K on the primary. No word on Causey's CoH (although I assume it's something higher than -$4K).

CO-04: With Corey Gardner having released his financial numbers, it's clear Betsy Markey has the money edge for now. His $377K raised last quarter is still pretty impressive, but it's less than Markey raised, and Gardner's $763K CoH is about half of Markey's $1.5 million.

FL-25: Joe Garcia reports raising $700K last quarter, including $230K in online contributions (thanks, netroots!). He still lags behind likely GOP nominee David Rivera, though.

NH-02: Of the candidates in the 2nd, Ann McLane Kuster (another netroots project) was the big raiser. She pulled in $316K, for $745K CoH. Fellow Dem Katrina Swett raised $188K, but has more CoH at $1.15 million. GOPer Charlie Bass leads in the polls but not at the bank: he raised $170K, for $360K CoH.

NJ-03: Freshman Democratic Rep. John Adler is out with an internal poll that has him sprinting for the end zone while Jon Runyan limps along behind: the Greenberg Quinlan Rosner poll gives Adler a 51-34 lead over Runyan, with 12 to independent teabagger Peter DeStefano (I'd imagine that lead would tighten as the DeStefano share shrinks). Runyan raised $501K last quarter (a bit more than Adler's $415K), but $301K was from donors and the other $200K was from himself. Runyan seemed to burn a lot on his surviving his primary, though; he's sitting on $472K CoH compared with Adler's more than $2 million.

NV-03: Rep. Dina Titus is in good shape financially (less so, poll-wise). The freshman Dem raised $426K and has $1.2 million CoH.

PA-04, PA-17: Keystone State Blue Dogs Jason Altmire and Tim Holden posted good numbers. Altmire raised more than $300K in May and June and is sitting on $1.4 million CoH. Holden raised $213K in that period and is sitting on $885K CoH, which isn't huge but far more than David Argall (who had $70K before the primary he barely survived) is likely to have.

TN-09: Here's a big score for Steve Cohen, facing a primary from former Memphis mayor Willie Herenton that's, as is usually the case in the 9th, all about the race card. Cohen just got an endorsement from prominent African-American politician Barack Obama, as well as financial backing from several key House CBC members (John Lewis, Alcee Hastings, William Clay) apparently unenthused with the specter of the potentially-embarrassing Herenton joining their ranks.

Rasmussen:
CO-Sen: Andrew Romanoff (D) 42%, Jane Norton (R) 44%
CO-Sen: Michael Bennet (D-inc) 40%, Jane Norton (R) 47%
CO-Sen: Andrew Romanoff (D) 42%, Ken Buck (R) 47%
CO-Sen: Michael Bennet (D-inc) 39%, Ken Buck (R) 48%
MD-Sen: Barbara Mikulski (D-inc) 58%, Eric Wargotz (R) 33%
NV-Sen: Harry Reid (D-inc) 43%, Sharron Angle (R) 46%
If you're Scott Rasmussen, what do you like to do on your day off? Well, you might like to go on a cruise. A cruise for fans of conservative magazine National Review, as their all-expenses-paid guest.

Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 7/13 (Afternoon Edition)
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GA-Gov: Gingrich endorses Deal
http://blogs.ajc.com/political...

I pray to Mudslingus, the God of Politics, that Republicans have an Oxendine-Deal runoff.  Pretty please.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.


Mudslingus, the God of Politics
Trademark that ASAP.

[ Parent ]
too late, already stolen


[ Parent ]
PA-7
In my neck of the woods, Pat Meehan raised over $500k this quarter and has over a $1 million COH.  No numbers for Lentz yet.  

I wonder at what point the DCCC cuts their losses in PA-7.  I suspect if the COH advantage goes 2 to 1 for Meehan, the DCCC might cut their losses especially if Fitpatrick and Barletta post good numbers compared to Murphy and Kanjorski this quarter.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7


Give up on PA-7?
Please tell me you're joking.  This is a district that leans democratic at the national level, one in which the democrats have a really strong candidate (although so does the GOP).  I know the district quite intimately as most of my dad's family is from there and I travel to Delaware county every year, though admittedly since you live there I'm sure you see the on-the-ground stuff every day.  What I don't get though is why you've always thought this race to be a slam dunk for the GOP?  Looking at the macro factors, the money race, and the candidate quality, it doesn't appear that way at all.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

[ Parent ]
My doubts
I doubt the Dems would have taken the seat in 2006 without Sestak running an awesome campaign himself, Rendell's strong performance, and Weldon's general level of weirdness.

Lentz has to build his own organization because everyone involved in party politics in the suburbs know the Delaware County Democratic Party is the most incompetent of the suburban Democratic parties.  They have been largely unable to replicate any down ballot success in the county without either 1) a Republican implosion as seen in the State House seat Lentz won in 2006 or 2) running a well funded campaign independent of the local party apparatus as Sestak did.  Additionally, the Democratic apparatus in the county is located outside the district.  

The Dems best chance is if Meehan implodes, which is possible, but Lentz has to be ready to capitalize.  Being outraised 2 to 1 really hurts the chance of pull off that move in such an expensive market.
 

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7


[ Parent ]
which is the most competent?
And didn't Sestak do anything to improve and reform that county organization, to revitalize it? Lentz's fundraising though has been good so far.

[ Parent ]
Its like reading...
...the list of excuses from GOP for any Dem advances in the district in recent years.  GOP implosion, going up against a well-funded campaign, blah blah blah.

Dems won't write this seat of, and they have no reason to.  There's no reason to ever write off a competitive seat in July.


[ Parent ]
Giving up on PA-07 would be moronic
that being said, I don't see a scenario in which the Republicans win or almost win the house but lose PA-07. (Then again, it's possible that the Republicans could overperform in teabaggy places like the South while underperforming along the northern half of the I-95 corridor.)

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
McInnis - RCP calling this prematurely?
I get that this is a scandal, but it doesn't seem that damaging, certainly not somehting that would cause McInnis to lose such a big lead in the primary. Am I missing something?  

Yeah, I agree
The last thing I'm going to do is dismiss any candidate without more evidence.  The gun might be smoking, but I'd like to see how this plays out over the next month.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
He apologized for it...
But this amounts to taking 300K from a private right-leaning foundation. I think a lot of voters might think this is between him and the foundation.

Don't get me wrong - it doesn't make him look good. But the RCP story makes it sound like he's dead in the water. If Vitter isn't being taken down by the myriad of scandals he's in the middle of, it's hard for me to see how this somewhat inside baseball scandal torpedos McInnis.  


[ Parent ]
You might be right
The first words that came in mind were "Richard Blumenthal".  I thought he might be DOA, but he has so far survived.  

I admit this is a weak comparison (Connecticut is more blue, Colorado is purple, Blumenthal's opponent is weak, McInnis's opponent is formidable).  But still, that was the first name that popped in my mind.  I'm willing to see how this plays out.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04


[ Parent ]
the first word that came to mind was
Politico....

Just like many of us who are too deep in the weeds, jumping to conclusions.


[ Parent ]
I think the issue of McInnis can be a big scandal

I think this is not like copy writing by your own initiative, I think here is a very dammaged fundation what pay $300K for nothing. This sound like a big fraud.

If you copy writing by your own initiative you are deceiving the readers, but no-one will lose very much.

PS: I glad you remember Miguel Indurain :)


[ Parent ]
I don't think so at all
This is far worse than some trivial fluffing of his resume, which is what Kirk did, far worse. I can't see how this doesn't cost him at least 5% in the general polling, if not more, (and that pretty much eradicates his lead), I mean he plagiarized a series of essays he was paid 300,000 dollars to write, that's some pretty serious fraud there and I can't believe voters are not going to be upset by it.  

[ Parent ]
Frankly, the RCP bloggers aren't too bright on campaigns......
Those guys tend to overreact on news cycle events, sometimes big, sometimes small.  On the big end, Sean Trende tried to argue some months back that the Rethugs would pick up 70(!) seats this November.

Normally their hyperventilating is biased in favor of their party, so the only surprise here is that they're impulsive and premature about how much this plagiarism will hurt their guy.

They might be right, and I sure hope so.  But it's too early to conclude that, as Richard Blumenthal taught me and many others here.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Rand Paul Chairman leaves
To work on a gov campaign for 2011. I think I have a pretty good idea who it is. http://www.politico.com/news/s...

TN-Gov, TN-9
In the gubernatorial race Bill Haslam is a steamrolling TN-RINO. He outperformed his two Republican opponents and Democrat Mike McWherter last night by a country-mile in a statewide televised debate carried on the NBC affiliates. I'd speculate that a lot of Democrats will support Haslam by November; as McWherter is lackluster candidate with no charisma or articulation on a good night. He didn't help himself by trying to go to the right of the centrist Haslam on social issues during the debate either. In fact, if one wasn't told, you'd be convinced Haslam was the Democrat and McWherter was the Republican. Unless Haslam somehow flukes out of the primary, he is going to be elected Governor by a big margin.

In TN-9 the support of President Obama will hopefully help shut the door on the political career of Willie Herenton, who tarnished his tenure as Mayor of Memphis by staying on to long, and by now bringing race EVEN further to the front of the congressional race. Issues, Herenton has articulated virtually none. God help Memphis and West Tennessee if he were to get elected.

Democrat: TN-8


C-SPAN link to TN Gov Debate
If anyone is interested in watching the debate, it can be viewed on the C-SPAN website.

Link: http://www.c-span.org/Watch/Me...

Democrat: TN-8


[ Parent ]
Good to know at least he's a RINO
That's pretty good for TN Republicans!  What are his specific RINO related policy positions?

[ Parent ]
RINO?
So is he to the left of Senators Corker and Alexander? Or like them?  

[ Parent ]
Left of current Senator Alexander and Senator Corker
He will govern like the moderate Lamar Alexander was back in the 1980s as Governor. This is by TN standards that is. Alexander and Corker are much more conservative in Washington then they governed while Governor and Mayor of Chattanooga respectively.

Democrat: TN-8

[ Parent ]
Its the overall picture, you read between the lines
Of course Bill Haslam says all the right things, to the letter on the issues: pro-life, pro-gun, fiscal conservative, etc. However, his record as Mayor of Knoxville showed him willing to raise property taxes when needed to fund government, join NYC Mayor Bloomberg's hand-gun control group (he disavows this now, and is NRA member, wink wink), and as mayor was a proponent of eliminating homelessness in the city. He also speaks very precisely when it comes to things like evolution being taught in the classroom, specifically that while believes in intelligent design, he is not afraid of evolution being taught, compared to his opponents who quote scripture. He has avoided pandering to religious intolerance and paranoia in relation to the rights of local Muslims to build a mosque in a Murfreesboro neighborhood, while our Dem nominee was against mosques in residential neighborhoods.Haslam has also been very out front about supporting green industries in Tennessee. In addition, Haslam has been willing to speak well of such prominent Democrats as VP Al Gore and Congressman Jim Cooper, and has contributed to many prominent Democrats over the years.

Don't get me wrong, he is conservative, but by TN standards he comes off as a very moderate pro-business type who is saying and doing all the right things to be elected Governor as a Republican. In East Tennessee, you run as a Republican or don't run at all. I think once elected he will govern as a moderate centrist, and all the tough conservative talking points will go into the dustbin. Thus, by modern TN Republican standards, a RINO.

Democrat: TN-8


[ Parent ]
sounds good,
so in other words, not really much further to the right than highly conservative Democrat Phil Bredesen?

[ Parent ]
sounds good,
so in other words, not really much further to the right than highly conservative Democrat Phil Bredesen?

[ Parent ]
Good comparison
I absolutely think Haslam will be as centrist as Bredesen, and on some issues maybe a little more left.  

Democrat: TN-8

[ Parent ]
Then I hope to god
Ron Ramsey doesn't slip through; I saw on of his ads and they were so conservative, including one subtly promoting session, saying, "We don't need the people in Washington telling us what to do, and if they don't like it, well, we'll do something about it." OR something like that. Only a far-right gadfly runs for a local, state election railing against Washington. I can never forgive Rosalind Kurtland or whoever it was for making him State Senate President over John Wilder. This was the woman progressives touted as an alternative to Harold Ford in 2006.  

[ Parent ]
WA Senate
The American Action Network ad is embarrassingly bad. I saw it for the first time today on KING 5 during the Noon news. I can't imagine why they think that ad would be effective in Washington state.

My thoughts exactly!!!
I mean, watching that, I can't see how it doesn't actually turn wealthier, well-educated suburbanites in Kitsap, Snomish and Pierce off and back into the Murray camp.

[ Parent ]
Rossi nearly matches Murray
Actually seems disappointing from a Rossi POV
As I assume there were a number of Rossi donors waiting on the sidelines, waiting for his announcement,

I suspect that Rossi's fundraising has peaked, relative to Murray.


[ Parent ]
IDK
He's had a few big fundraisers since the quarter has ended. Also, after Clint Didier is taken out in the primary, he should get a big boost. Rossi's finance director from his gov runs is with Didier, so that probably hurt him. He raised over 20k a week.  

[ Parent ]
Woops
Thats over 230k a weeek.  

[ Parent ]
I really think it's still disappointing
Since when you think about it, this is the big splash; all of his instate and out of state organizations and donors, (including the national Republican apparatus), maxed out to him early when he went in. If he still can't even match Murray, he's going to have little chance being on the same financial page as her in november, especially having to spend resources against Didier.  

[ Parent ]
Agree, disappointing
Especially considering the fundraising of other top senate candidates like Kirk and Rubio. I expected there to be a lot more low-hanging fruit.

Gotta say that tennis shoe ad against Murray by American Crossroads or whatever was pretty weak. In a blue state like Washington it was fairly uninspired and didn't suit the electorate. I was expecting these groups to show political campaigning at it's best with all the best personal gathered from the GOP campaign comittees and campaigns. If that ad is an indicator to their future standard of campaigning, it leaves a lot to be desired.

I'm starting to see hints of Coakley in Rossi. I'm just hoping these underwhelming fundraising numbers isn't a sign of complacency.


[ Parent ]
Are you rooting for him?


[ Parent ]
Yep
There's an (R) after my name.

[ Parent ]
Rossi fundraising
His biggest fundraisers were before the quarter ended and are included in these reports.

[ Parent ]
I hope that this is the end of Vitter
while I obviously would like to see Senator Melancon, I would be happy with Vitter being tossed out in the primary or having the conservative third party candidate winning a three way race.

He needs to go...
I really do not understand why anyone would venture into Birtherland, but apparently Vitter did for some reason.  I could care less about his love of busty women selling love.  This is bizarre though.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

[ Parent ]
Of course it is the other way for me
My primary reason for being so strongly against Vitter (other than his views) is because of his taste for prostitutes and committing adultery.  I'm much more offended about that than his birtherism, and I'm a supporter of Obama.

[ Parent ]
He needs to go...
I really do not understand why anyone would venture into Birtherland, but apparently Vitter did for some reason.  I could care less about his love of busty women selling love.  This is bizarre though.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

[ Parent ]
One problem for Vitter
This guy running against him in the primary is making it clear he doesn't disagree with Vitter on any of his stands. He's just running against him because of all the scandals. That makes it harder for Vitter to argue against him from a policy perspective.

GOPVOTER - you're from LA. What do you think of all this?  


[ Parent ]
I think that actually helps Chet Traylor
What reasonable LA conservatives want is a non-scandal ridden version of Vitter, i.e. his policies without the scandals and conspiracy theories.

As far as GOPVoter, his position so far is here,

http://www.swingstateproject.c...


[ Parent ]
Oh, right, I knew he wasn't supporting Vitter
I wondered what he thought of Traylor's chances of taking him out.  

[ Parent ]
Not good
I think he started way too late. I'm hoping he can raise the million dollars he says he can. His big problem is geography. He is from North LA, where there are not too many registered Republicans. Vitter is from Metairie, where there are many, many registered Republicans. I'm hoping some big names like Tony Perkins will support Traylor, but IIRC, Perkins endorsed Vitter when he announced he would not run.  

[ Parent ]
Traylor has jumped in awfully late, though, and
the primary is next month...

I've forgotten, does this LA primary have a runoff threshold?
If so, too bad there aren't a few "some dudes" on the ballot to help force Vitter into a runoff to give Traylor more time to wage against Vitter.


[ Parent ]
The good news
Is that Traylor's entrance means that for the next month, a Republican will be hitting Vitter for his personal ....um...failures?.... and his entire presence will basically be a reminder to voters of Vitter's peccadilloes.  

Melancon should just duck, run some positive ads so he doesn't get Alvin Greene'd, and stay out of it for now. Good news for ole Charlie, overall...

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


[ Parent ]
More than anything
I'm rooting for Traylor to take him out, regardless of how it effects Melancon's chances. Vitter is the biggest dirtwad in the Senate, and at this point I don't care how he loses.

[ Parent ]
I think he should have been indicted
by the Justice Dept.  for soliciting prostitutes.  As far as I know, that is illegal.  Well I think there is still time for that, listen up, Eric Holder.

[ Parent ]
I
would think that Holder has much more pressing matters than the sex life of a Senator with a diaper fetish.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Unless there was transport over state lines
(aka the Mann act)

the US DoJ does not have jurisdiction.

Thus, Holder can't prosecute. Only Louisiana can.


[ Parent ]
He solicited them from a DC-based madam
which is where the "business" was run from.  Thus it is clearly under federal jurisdiction.

[ Parent ]
So how does Holder get around the Statue of Limitations?
http://www.nola.com/news/t-p/f...

I'd love to see Vitter taken down as you suggest. I just don't see how.

The statute of limitations for bringing solicitation of prostitution charges, a misdemeanor in both Louisiana and Washington, suggests that the opportunity to bring charges has passed. In Louisiana, solicitation charges must be brought within two years of the alleged act, while in Washington, the limit is three years.


[ Parent ]
You're right on that
I didn't think about the statute of limitations (which I think should be eliminated in the future).  However, I think there is a need for some investigation whether Vitter used improper funds or money laundering, etc.  

To be quite honest, I'd really support even getting this creep on a technicality of some sort, just find something and get him indicted (DC grand juries probably would indict a GOP politician if you have any evidence).  This guy belongs in a jail, not the US Senate.  


[ Parent ]
Reuters
poll down in Florida shows Crist in the lead with 34%, Rubio a close second with 29%, and Meek a distant third with 17%. Someone fly Bill Clinton down to Florida to convince Meek to drop out because a Senator Crist is more attractive than a Senator Rubio at this point.

Scott leads sink 34 to 31% in the governor's race while Sink leads McCollum 31 to 30%

http://www.reuters.com/article...

19, Male, Independent, CA-12


Doubtful he'd ever do that, but
we can dream: On the last weekend, if Crist & Rubio are polling neck-and-neck, Meek "pulls a Scozzafava" and drops out and endorses Crist.
Too bad Obama/Emanuel are out of carrots to dangle at him.

[ Parent ]
Odd phrasing in story
"Bud Chiles trailed badly in either match-up with about 13 percent of the vote."

With two canidates getting about 32% of the vote, 13% is not "trailing badly".  It is "having a major impact on the outcome".


[ Parent ]
Hopefully this isnt an awful stretch
But anyone of where I can find the Congressional election results for every state both House and Senate archived in one place dating back to the 1920's?  (Or I spose later wouldnt hurt either because I gotta start somewhere with this project.)

scratch "or later"
and put in our more recent.

[ Parent ]
The Clerk of the House has archived election results back to 1920
[ Parent ]
Fabulous!
I figured that would be either through the government or non-existant

[ Parent ]
for fuck sake
They dont include percentages, just raw vote total.  ::sigh::  This projects is going to take forever

[ Parent ]
Jack Conway: Electable, Smart, Pretty ... and Rich?
A $400k personal loan? Uh....is Jack Conway also rich?  ....because that would be helpful....  Or is he just kinda-rich, enough to give himself a loan? Anyone know?

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

I believe
he was a lawyer before he became Attorney General. So he must of dealt with some pretty expensive clients/cases.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Family
I believe his family is well off. I think they own race horses, which would be an indication. May be wrong.

Democrat: TN-8

[ Parent ]
Yeah
his family is loaded.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
I believe he also comes from a weathy
old money Kentucky family.  

[ Parent ]
I think he is rich
but not beyond the tune of dumping some 1-2 million in.

[ Parent ]
DeMint endorses Johnson
Ron Johnson, the NRSC fav in WI-Sen. Kinda surprised. http://www.politico.com/news/s...
John Cornyn must have put DeMint in the Rossi too.  

Oxedine Falls in GA-Gov
http://politicalwire.com/archi...
He is now battling Deal for the run-off spot with Karen Handel, rather than the other way around. We could be headed to a Deal-Handel run-off if this poll is true, as after it was taken, Handel got Palin and Deal got Gingrich.  

Whereas I shake my head yet again at Politico's reporting......
It's as if the reporters at Politico just make shit up in their analysis of politics.  They make up foolish stories entirely at times, and other times foolish analyses in what could be good stories.

So now they've got what on the surface looks like a good piece, by Manu Raju, on Harry Reid's campaign strategy of being personally quiet about Angle while surrogates do the attacking.  She even points out that one day after refusing to take the bait from a reporter's question on Angle, Reid's campaign launched an attack ad.

And then I scream when Raju writes, "Yet Reid's strategy of staying quiet while others doing the attacking is a risky one."

Sigh!

Letting surrogates attack your opponent and playing nice yourself is CAMPAIGNING 101.  Do these dimwits at Politico not get that?  They're supposed to be political reporters, shouldn't they understand garden variety strategy that every good campaign follows?

That's Reid's silence is conspicuously noticed in reality makes me that much happier than he'll pull this out.  He does, indeed, have a penchant for flying off the handle, and he's demonstrated textbook discipline after Angle won the primary.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


OH-Sen: Portman had collarbone surgery this morning
Root for the American League Tonight
Every time the AL wins the all-star game, it's good for Democrats in the midterms.  When the NL wins, so do the GOP.  If they come from behind to win late, then it's massive gains for the GOP.

http://www.politico.com/news/s...


Sorry, No Can Do
I can never root for the AL. The DH is a blight upon the game, I say!

[ Parent ]
The NL WON!
Ya'll are so fucked. Since I know little of baseball, IDK if they came from behind. I think they scored all 3 runs in the 7th inning. Is that considered coming from behind?  

[ Parent ]
CA state senator dies
Republican David Cox who has been in office since 2004 died today at age 72.

http://www.sacbee.com/2010/07/...

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  


That's too bad
Prostate cancer is really painful (I had an uncle who died of it), so while I never am happy that someone dies, at least he's not in anymore pain.

On the political side, what kind of senate district does Cox have, is it one that we have any chance of winning?

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
IDK
Wikipedia has party registration as followed if it helps.

R-43
D-33
other-18

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C...

You are right, prostate cancer is a horrible thing. RIP

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  


[ Parent ]
It pretty much overlaps CA-04.
So it can only be competitive if a Republican from SoCal or something moves up there and we field a home-grown moderate Dem.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
Maybe the Republicans will forget to field a candidate
Stranger things have happened (thank you Alvin Greene...)

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
Keeping
Dems from reaching 2/3rds in the state senate is a huge priority for the GOP in this state. We'll have better luck trying to win SD-12 (Denham's district) and SD-15 (Maldonado's old district) than here.

Speaking of Denham's district, at first I thought the reason why Obama won his district was because of high latino turnout throughout the Central Valley. I did some digging and discovered Democrats hold an impressive 18 point registration advantage in his district. Also Denham barely won the seat in 2002. The Democratic nominee here is Assemblywoman Anna Caballero while the GOP nominee is the mayor of some town I've never heard of.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12


[ Parent ]
Hopefully Prop. 25 succeeds in Nov.
(state budget passing with a simple majority). Then having 2/3 loses much of its importance.
I suspect the GOP will be fighting tooth and nail against it since 2/3 is their best obstructionist tool.

[ Parent ]
The only way to a (very unlikely) Rep resurgence in CA
is for this to pass, Brown to win, and have the Dems in full control when everything goes completely into Depression.

The way it is now, the Republicans will always just be obstructionists rather than have any chance of being in power for a generation.


[ Parent ]
Yeah, humanly possible, but very unlikely
If Doolittle and McCarpetbagger could have been rolled into one person (legal problems and a carpetbagger), THEN Charlie Brown could have won, but any adequate Rep can win this.

[ Parent ]
PA-07 Party Registration
Meehan has an internal poll claiming he leads 47-26. The party registration is 47R, 38D, and 9I. How accurate is that?
Here's the poll: http://www.pa2010.com/wp-conte...

I think that the Philly suburbs are still like upstate New York
In that there are still a fairly large number of registered Republicans who are not opposed to voting for a Democrat at the national level (your version of a "Reagan Democrat" I guess).

I think the registration numbers are reasonable in that light.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
Even blacks in the city of Chester
which went over 90% for Obama, still apparently register GOP.

[ Parent ]
I believe the party registration
I recall reading that after the 2008 primary, Bucks and Montgomery barely turned blue as far as party registration, but Delaware and Chester were still quite red.

[ Parent ]

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