Ok.

So what's the usual median vote share?  Are we lower than average, or stastically the same?

And seeing someone who got 30% who will find up back in Congress makes me a run-off proponant.

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by: wmlawman @ Thu Jun 10, 2010 at 15:17:37 PM UTC

*wind up not find up

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by: wmlawman @ Thu Jun 10, 2010 at 15:17:59 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Why the 70% threshold?

Is that a sign of weakness for an incumbent?

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by: tietack @ Thu Jun 10, 2010 at 15:34:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It has potential to be.

Though I'm wondering if it's a bit overstated.  The thinking may be that in the next primary, they'll be in bigger trouble, though that's not necessarily the case.

But is there any real difference between 70%, or 66%, or even 60%?  Like Patrick McHenry's 63% in NC-10.  Does anyone think he's actually in jeopardy of losing that seat?  Only way he's leaving is by seeking higher office.

Conversely, given Ken Calvert's numerous ethical issues in CA-44, you could say him getting 67% shows his resilience in the face of those charges (or how tolerant the GOP primary voters are of their corrupt Congressman).

Some of those numbers are signs of trouble; others are more or less false flags.

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by: BruinKid @ Fri Jun 11, 2010 at 03:34:23 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

IN-05

Wow, if the teabaggers could agree to unite behind one candidate instead of 25 of them clobbering each other, they'd have this seat no problem.

I always knew that Watermelon Dan was pretty sad, but his magnitude of sadness is really put into a much starker perspective in a table like this. As it is, Danny Boy is the ONLY guy on this list (counting Souder) who scored less than 48% and WASN'T primaried. 30% for an incumbent in a primary should be death.

There's no way this guy is still around by 2014. Either he'll finally get primaried, or, (more likely), Luke Messer will make spooky noises in his general direction and he'll just retire.

Either way, I think "Indiana's Fifth District" might be SSP for "Pass the popcorn".  

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by: notanothersonofabush @ Thu Jun 10, 2010 at 15:48:51 PM UTC

Exactly

It's not really even if the teabaggers could have united -- all they would have needed is one (or even two!) conservative candidates running against him, and Burton would have gone down.  Very few people have liked him for a very long time.  I think you're right that the district gets at least somewhat redrawn for 2012, and if he still wants it, Luke Messer is the likely Congressman for it.  While his voting record won't be all that different from Burton's, at least, as far as I know, he's a decent human being.

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by: IndianaProgressive @ Thu Jun 10, 2010 at 16:15:34 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well,

anyone who doesn't call Obama appointees communists, use a watermelon in his backyard to prove that Hillary Clinton murdered Vince Foster, and demanded that the House appropriate money to build a plastic shield over the gallery to keep a terrorist from lobbing a bomb - way to show confidence in the Capitol Police, dumbass.

And frankly, if McGoff hadn't run again with the name rec he had left over from last time (despite barely campaigning at all in 2010), Messer would've got it. He came pretty close regardless.

The district will be redrawn to focus more on the suburbs. It gets a little bit more compact and suburban every time it's redrawn, and there's too much population in Hamilton County to justify keeping the current sprawl - whenever I mess with the map in Dave's app, Marion/Gas City always ends up somewhere else.  

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by: notanothersonofabush @ Thu Jun 10, 2010 at 16:37:39 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think that's exactly what the new district will look like

All of Hamilton County, probably all of Hancock County, parts of Johnson County, and northern/eastern Marion County.  The question for the Republicans becomes how uber-conservative do they want to make it -- do they thrown in more Democratic parts of Marion County, or perhaps Madison County (Anderson) in there -- those things would take it from a 70-30 to maybe a 60-40 Republican district.

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by: IndianaProgressive @ Thu Jun 10, 2010 at 16:48:12 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Eh, I've been pretty much packing the parties around Indy.

I try to make IN-07 as Democratic as possible and the districts around it as Republican as possible. This exchange actually inspired me to dig out a pen, paper, and the 2008 Marion County election results by township, where I was able to draw a maximally Democratic district that basically incorporates the entire county minus Perry and Franklin, the two most Republican townships. I still don't understand why they put Beech Grove and Southport in the same CD as Central Township under the current map, but eh, that's redistricting for you. The problem is really how many of the suburbs technically in Marion you can get away with packing into the 7th, and how that skews population balance in the 5th as a result.

I generally try to avoid putting Anderson into the 5th (don't know why), but lately it's occurred to me that the district needs to take one for the team if I'm going to keep Muncie in the 6th - so Anderson would definitely be in. I've kept Tipton County (cause it's small) and put in Zionsville because it fits CD5 better than CD4, and often end up adding Kokomo, too, but that could easily go in the 4th. These comments make me want to look at it again.

Meanwhile, I've done all sorts of crazy configurations with the Seventh, from what you'd reasonably expect (about the same as it is now) to trying to make it a VRA district (lots of black people in Indy, but not enough for a plurality) to drawing it in with Bloomington (which would really piss off the poor schmuck in Martinsville who ended up with a Democratic spaghetti gerrymander in his backyard) As goes the Seventh, Bloomington, and to a lesser extent Lafayette, so goes the rest of the map, which pretty much draws itself based on geography and population (and screwing Baron Hill) once you've got those things figured out.  

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by: notanothersonofabush @ Fri Jun 11, 2010 at 01:30:39 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

They could also unite behind the teabagging Democrat!

Lol.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Fri Jun 11, 2010 at 23:58:54 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not sure if this says anything really...

There is probably a decent number of folks who scored above 70% who similarly could have the same notes written about them (except maybe on ethics).  

Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  

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by: Shinigami @ Thu Jun 10, 2010 at 16:25:14 PM UTC

OH-6

I'm pretty sure Wilson voted for HCR.

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by: Scsouthern @ Thu Jun 10, 2010 at 17:10:49 PM UTC

What's

funny is Hill's top opponent was a LaRouchie running on a platform of impeaching Obama. She got a substantial amount of votes, coming in second.  LOL, I don't know why, a lot of nuts in Bloomington I suppose.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

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by: hoosierdem @ Fri Jun 11, 2010 at 04:33:21 AM UTC

Why again do Larouchies want to impeach Obama?

It doesn't make a lick of common sense, but how does it make sense to even them?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Fri Jun 11, 2010 at 23:58:32 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

You answered your own question

Because they're crazy!

They also think (or used to think) Queen Elizabeth is in control of the world drug trade!

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

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by: Pan @ Sat Jun 12, 2010 at 00:01:56 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

flat what

http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmw...

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Sat Jun 12, 2010 at 00:04:23 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Harman

don't forget about that Israel wiretap scandal thingy whatever it was.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

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by: sapelcovits @ Fri Jun 11, 2010 at 07:21:01 AM UTC