Google Ads


Site Stats

AR, CA, IA, ME, NJ, NV, SC & SD Results Thread

by: DavidNYC

Tue Jun 08, 2010 at 10:15 PM EDT


11:33pm: Party's moved next door.
11:31pm: AR-02 has been called by AP for Elliott, now 54-46. She'll face Tim Griffin... probably not as good a matchup for Dems as Wills.
11:29pm: Angle's back in the lead in NV-Sen! 35, to Lowden's 33, with 21 for Tarkanian. 14% in. I'm sure we'll see lots of back and forth gyrations in this one as different counties report. Lowden has small lead in Clark, while Angle has a much bigger lead in Washoe.
11:27pm: AP has called GOP primary in NJ-12 for Scott Sipprelle, rich guy, over teabagger opposition, but only 54-46. Rush Holt probably not very scared. GOP primary in NJ-06 is still 50-50, with Diane Gooch trailing by 100.
11:25pm: Add a couple more New Jersey races to the list of races where no-name teabaggers held moderates down to so-so numbers. Leonard Lance only racked up 56% in NJ-07, and Chris Smith in NJ-04 held to 69%. Both were 'yes' votes on cap & trade.
11:21pm: All the Arkansas House races are super close. In AR-01, it's Causey 51, Wooldridge 49, with 94% in. In AR-02, it's Elliot 52, Wills 48, with 91% in. And in AR-03, it's Womack 50, Bledsoe 50, with Womack up by about 200, although that's only with 75% in.
11:15pm: ME-Gov (R) called for Paul LePage. Looking like he'll take on Libby Mitchell in the fall.
11:12pm: Only 1% reporting, but the AP has already called NV-Gov (R) for ex-judge Brian Sandoval. Even the RGA supported him over Jim Gibbons.
11:10pm: Oh yeah, poll closed in California ten minutes ago.
11:01pm: In Iowa, the AP calls IA-03 (R) for Brad Zaun, who will take on Leonard Boswell. In IA-02, Mariannette Miller-Meeks of the dreaded ophthalmologists will rematch against Dave Loebsack.
11:00pm: The AP calls AR-Sen for Blanche Lincoln.
10:51pm: A smattering of precincts and early votes coming in from Nevada, including Clark County (Las Vegas). Gibbons is losing big time to Sandoval in NV-Gov, 57-23. Chicken Lady ahead of Angle 36-33 with Tarkanian at 20.
10:48pm: Ganja break OVER! Maine is now up to 38% in. Libby Mitchell has extended her lead to 34-26 over Rowe, and Paul LePage is cruising.
10:43pm: How baked must they be in Maine right about now? Been at 12% since... whoa... are those Cool Ranch Doritos?
10:40pm: Chad Causey looks like he might hold out over Tim "The Hangman" Wooldridge in AR-01. Meanwhile, Joyce Elliott now has a lead over Robbie Wills in AR-02. And in AR-03, teabagger fave Cecile Bledsoe is beating Steve Womack 54-46. Bledsoe is both a teabagger queen and sort of the establishment choice - I dunno, though, it was a weird race.
10:37pm: We're pretty confident in calling ND-AL for state Rep. Kristi Noem, who beat the more-or-less establishment choice, SoS Chris Nelson. You only need 35% to avoid a runoff in SD, and Noem has a 41-36 lead with most of the votes in.
10:32pm: Halter took a brief lead for a moment there, but it's back to where it was.
10:27pm: AR-Sen is 51-49 Blanche, but Halter is still behind where he needs to be, according to our model. If you want a fuller explanation of how our model works, click here.
10:23pm: With 12% reporting, Terry Branstad is up just 51-40 over Bob Vander Plaats in IA-Gov (R).
10:13pm: Can't wait to see those NV-Sen results start to roll in (soon, I hope). Meanwhile, our friends up in Maine seem to be on the first ganja break of the evening.

RESULTS:

DavidNYC :: AR, CA, IA, ME, NJ, NV, SC & SD Results Thread
Tags: , , , , , , , , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email

AR: Washington County
Who has the stronghold there?  

On a night like this
I would like nothing better than auto refresh button on the SSP page.

If you use FireFox
ReloadEvery is a great plugin for doing just this:  https://addons.mozilla.org/en-...  

[ Parent ]
AR-Sen - Jeeezum crow
I think I'm one of three who guessed that Lincoln would win.... If I happen to win the babka, that would leave a bitter aftertaste. Perhaps I'd have to donate the equivalent in cash to some worthy cause.

Good guess on your part
Another result this year that I wouldn't have predicted!


[ Parent ]
I'm sorta fearful of the headlines if Halter loses this runoff
I'd imagine something with "netroots repudiated" in the title.

[ Parent ]
Honestly
I would not mind seeing the Kos wing of the party taken down a notch.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

[ Parent ]
I don't want to see that at all, even as I argue with that "wing" of the party......
There are too many ideological purity trolls there, and not enough sense of political reality, but ultimately the "Kos wing" of the party is a big factor in Democrats being in power at all right now.  The netroots are participatory democracy at its best, and "at its best" includes the warts.

The worst thing that can happen for us now is for yet another faction of the Democratic Party to lose its enthusiasm for November.  We always struggle in midterms getting people of color to show up, to get young whites to show up, and other groups friendly to our side.  We can't have part of the activist base to get more disenchanted than they normally would be.

You don't "take down a notch" any part of the Democratic Party without taking the entire party down a notch.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Correct...
The Democrats cannot afford to lose any voters due to enthusiasm at this point.  Look what happened to the Republicans when they started hemorrhaging voters.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

[ Parent ]
Agreed
I'm a hardcore liberal, but this "purity all the time even if it costs us a seat" bs needs to calm down

19, gay male, IL-7, MN 4 (college), Dem

[ Parent ]
except that Halter is stronger in the general than Lincoln
and complaint against Lincoln has as much to do with her millions of dollars from industry lobbyists than it does with her ideology

26, male, Dem, NJ-12

[ Parent ]
He didn't say remove enthusiasm
He said taken down a notch.  If anything the purity comes more from the liberal wing than any other.  

It wouldn't be so bad if every once in a while the purity test was repudiated if it doesn't harm enthusiasm.  That's possible in many rural races with the blue dogs.  Places where maybe the liberal wing doesn't have a huge vested interest, but a victory could at least cause a bit of self-reflection.

No doubt we don't want to lose voters or enthusiasm.  But then again, when I argue this from the ConservaDem or Lincoln side, it seems we on this site aren't as understanding.

Hopefully we can all get over ourselves :-)


[ Parent ]
A feeling of powerlessness -> reduction in enthusiasm
Much of the netroots have put their heart and soul into Halter. If he can't even clear the primary, that will leave many in the netroots felling powerless.

[ Parent ]
It shouldn't
I mean if that's what happens, I question a lot of the motives.

Was there as much to love about Halter as there was to hate about Lincoln.  I kind of got the feeling, from all sides, it was all about beating Lincoln, not actually winning the seat.  I'm not a huge fan of political vengeance, though I understand it.  I was also told that Halter is sidestepping EFCA, is that true.  If so, given HCR has passed, wouldn't it be bad for peopel to send a non-EFCA supporter to fight that next battle?

Everyone should thrilled by democracy in action.  Halter had EVERY thing going for him honestly, at least as a challenger he couldn't expect anything more.

There are other candidates out there people cna get behind.  I'm in PA, I'd suggest Sestak, Travedi (especially for the KOS crowd), and so on.


[ Parent ]
You're looking at the facts w/r/t Halter
I'm looking at the emotion.

I hope I'm wrong.


[ Parent ]
I think you are
While enthusiasm will be down vs 2008, I still think there is a lot to be gained and lost in 2010.  

And we need to act in a way where we dont think magically in 2012 Obama can carry everyone like he did in 2008.  That race is starting now as well, even though we need to focus on 2010.


[ Parent ]
Yup, agree. It's a real problem. Of course, thoughtful reflection would mean instead...
...that the netroots, which happen to be largely white, male, and affluent, might take a step back and look at why they lost, and recognize it was because other parts of the Democratic base don't agree with the netroots on everything.  Black voters are heavily siding with Lincoln, and they, too, are liberal.  But they are liberals with different priorities than the netroots.

(In case anyone takes issue with my premise, I'm not interested in assertions about black voters being socially conservative or culturally conservative per issue polling, because the fact is the polls that show where you really stand are actual elections.  Even when a white Democrat gets a sorta-kinda-centrist-posturing black Republican opponent, they side by huge margins for the Democrat, as in MD-Sen 2006 where Michael Steele lost the black vote by 50 points to Cardin.)

But that kind of reflection takes time, and we've got a short window here to get people ginned up to show up for November.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Well
I got my laugh in.  I forget Steele was even a candidate previously.  He seemingly hasn't been real good at anything in a while lol.

The reflection has already happened.  This is not the first loss for netroots.  2008 was a bit of an anomaly, so many new/changing variables.

But I don't see a lot of netroots "taking their ball and going home".  Then again, I'm constantly being labeled as over-optimistic form 2010.


[ Parent ]
Not good
because I'm all about the curative effect of primaries.

Anyway, it just flipped around. But that could be a reporting artifact.  


[ Parent ]
not surprised about that maine ganga break
seems this whole election cycle in maine has been one big GANGA BREAK

Maine
I am surprised anyone knows an election is going on there because so many Mainers apparently don't know either.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

[ Parent ]
i know
really strange

[ Parent ]
Alvin Greene
Someone needs to visit his parents home and ask him how he feels about being nominated to be slaughtered by DeMint.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

I
don't totally dislike him. He is young (only 32) and a former soldier. You can't get any more outsider than that. The reason he lives with his parents is because he was on active duty and he paid his filing fee with money he earned in the military. I do not think he will win but winning tonight is something. He will make connections in this race that can help him in the future. I will admit I never heard of him before tonight and his primary opponent did keep DeMint under 50 so who knows. I won't hold my breath though.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Cannot be discounted...
Anyone who wins a statewide race against candidates who are actually contesting it without contesting it yourself has something going for them.  

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

[ Parent ]
Not sure I follow the logic here
"Anyone who wins a statewide race against candidates who are actually contesting it without contesting it yourself has something going for them."

...because you see, to me, that indicates that primary voters either really didn't like the guy who was actually running ... or, they had no idea WTF they were doing. It's kinda like when you completely forget that the county assessor's race is on the ballot since there are like 80 other things on there, and so in the voting booth, you just pick one of the people who listed their occupation as "Deputy Assessor."  Not that I did that today ... um ...

Of course the difference between that scenario and this one is that in South Carolina ... voters did it for the Senate race?

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


[ Parent ]
It all really comes down to Pulaski County
Halter probably needs around 47% in the county. I guess Lincoln did a good job of combining Obama and Clinton support. If she wins, it will be mostly due to Obama's endorsement, not that we will see Lincoln support any of Obama's legislative goals any time soon.

With 25% of county precincts in
Halter now leads in Pulaski 59-41...

[ Parent ]
Union County Arkansas
0 of 21 precints in, but over 3000 votes in.

County has 45k people total.

wtf?


My only
guess is that the votes are from an assortment of precincts. I remember in the Texas primary last year there were 200,000 votes in with 0% of the precincts and Wolf Blitzer said precincts don't count until they are all in.

But I really don't know.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26


[ Parent ]
Absentees


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Eww (AR-02)
Wills leads Elliott by 5, 41% reporting. God this guy is just revolting and makes every conservadem seem liberal.

16, Male, Democrat, CA-42/sometimes CA-32.

Elliott will win
Her base is still completely out.

[ Parent ]
Elliott seems pretty unelectable
and no, it's not because of her race, it's because she can't drum up any support outside of Pulaski County.

[ Parent ]
With
48% in Zaun is crushing in IA-03

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

Sadly
I predict Lincoln will win by at least 2 points.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

Without a runoff
she would have won on primary day.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
And that would be fine
having less people decide it doesn't make a lot of sense.

makes me like the jungle primaries.  One main primary, get 50% done, otherwise top two on a general election day.  


[ Parent ]
Paul LePage
Never heard of this guy before, but I'm pretty sure he has the ME GOP nomination.

Anyways, here's his finance data, which I'm not sure what to make of:

http://www.mainecampaignfinanc...


Halter on top now
but plenty of Pulaski to go.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


Bizarre
Total flip.  Did they post the precinct with his 2000 member family in it?

[ Parent ]
Halter takes the lead!
51-49

Whoa
Politico just flipped Pulaski from Lincoln to Halter. If that's true, Halter wins.

Ah, I see now.
Ok, I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but I think this is Politico/AP making one of their classic mistakes, and not AR magically waking up and telling Blanche "smell you later."

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
idk
It's saying that 25% is in for pulaski now.

I wouldn't be totally surprised... many African American voters who voted Lincoln probably stayed home, while Halter's big base in Pulaski turned out.

21, Male, Gay, Dem, Born: AR-04 ;  Current Residence: FL-02


[ Parent ]
Seems like it
Somebody deciding to be a sadist I guess... or fill the time until Chicken Lady returns start coming in.

[ Parent ]
WTF Halter on top
Pulaski count results seem screwy but if they're right this is going to go right down to the wire.  

25, Democrat, male, Currently living and voting in PA-2, originally form OK-1

OMG
Pulaski?!?! wtf. what happened??

I hope this is true. Im going to party tonight

21, Male, Gay, Dem, Born: AR-04 ;  Current Residence: FL-02


It is called...
Sweet Justice.  

[ Parent ]
Iowa results mostly from Des Moines
So I would say Brandstad may be in trouble if he is barely winning Polk County (which is Des Moines, not Des Moines County).

NJ Update
Things are tightening quickly in NJ 6 between Gooch and Little, with 77% of precincts reporting and much of the vote remaining in Gooch leaning Middlesex county (currently up 56-44 there) teabagger Anna Little's lead is down to 51.9-48.1 or around 450 votes.  

Meanwhile in NJ 12 Scott Spirrelle appears to be OK up 52-48 and widening, but still a pretty weal performance from him.


It looks like Gooch and Sipprelle
will win the privilege of losing to Pallone and Holt.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12

[ Parent ]
is halter now winning?
??????

Sadly
I think the Pulaski Co. flipping to Halter thing was a mistake. :(

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Agreed
It's been Lincoln with that 18% spread all along. That is, unless Halter's been up by that all along.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
I agree
Earlier, the results had Lincoln winning by 18 points and she had 7,207 votes. Now Halter is winning by 18 points and Lincoln still has 7,207 votes.

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  


[ Parent ]
I smella a mistake too
but otherwise this is the whole race.

All of SW ARK is in, where Halter dominates.  If he doesn't change the Pulaski numbers from the primary, he loses.  But if the turnout there features a different type of ethusiastic voters, which is possible, from the rest of the state, it could work out.

We were kind of surprised halter lost Pulaski in the primary, so I guess we can be surprised again.


[ Parent ]
AR SEN
Halter takes the lead!

False alarm
AP corrects mistake.

[ Parent ]
Politico has flipped Pulaski back to Lincoln


For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

NV-SEN
Angle, Lowden, Tarkanian in that order

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

It was nice while it lasted


25, Democrat, male, Currently living and voting in PA-2, originally form OK-1

Yup Pulaski back to blanche


:(


21, Male, Gay, Dem, Born: AR-04 ;  Current Residence: FL-02

[ Parent ]
Still waiting for one important county..
White County - it can still make or break this.

21, Male, Gay, Dem, Born: AR-04 ;  Current Residence: FL-02

No results but since it is a dry county
they must be torching one up

[ Parent ]
And Lincoln back up by 2%
Error fixed.

Early trickle in Nevada
Angle/Lowden at 31, Tarkanian at 22.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

To dream... tark loses and the two ladies are too close to call
The batshit would be flying for weaks!

[ Parent ]
BTW, Harry Reid's currently at a paltry 56% in his primary
His closest competitor is at 16%, but still.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

You're forgetting about none of the above
None of the above is currently getting 20% of the vote against Reid in Nevada... not a good sign.

What would happen if none of the above won anyways.

25, Democrat, male, Currently living and voting in PA-2, originally form OK-1


[ Parent ]
None of the Above
Might be a more competent Senate Majority Leader though.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

[ Parent ]
Hey now
Remember your on a Democratic site. Off limits. I'll admit he's not the best but still.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
NOTA is just a protest, can't win
"In Nevada, the actual candidate with the greatest number of votes assumes office regardless of how many votes None of the Above gets. Thus None of the Above acts purely as a repository for protest votes." (Wikipedia)

[ Parent ]
NJ: Rich people recruitment not working out so well
Unless there are a disproportionate number of votes left, Diane Gooch has lost in NJ-06, and John Aslanian lost in a landslide in NJ-09.

AR-01 and AR-02
Causey is ahead in AR-01 by a decent 6% margin, which is good. For AR-02, Elliott has now pulled into the lead and will likely keep it with much of Pulaski still out. Both candidates have tough races ahead of them. If this were 2008, Causey would probably win the general election easily, but 2010 is questionable.

Rory Reid's only up 49-25 over some dude named Frederick Conquest
What a spectacular name.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

Kristi Noem
Anyone noticing similarities between Noem in SD and Gooch in NJ? Both moderatish, female candidates, both versing teabaggers, both narrowly leading  

IA-GOV
Branstad leads Vander Plaats and Roberts 51-40-8. Not quite the blowout Sarah was hoping for, methinks.

Result of the night so far
Branstad performing thoroughly blah.

[ Parent ]
He's not doing so hot in Des Moines
Also turnout is way down.  Only about 1k votes in Poweshiek County (I went to college there, Grinnell) when usually you'd expect about double that in a primary.

[ Parent ]
I grew up in Ames (Story County) and Marshalltown (Marshall County), and...
...Branstad is barely winning Marshall 45-42 over BVP, and Story only 47-41.  In contrast, he's got 61% in liberal Johnson County, where there must be a lot more centrist GOPers.

My mom and brothers still live in Marshalltown after all these years, and I'll have to ask them what's up if they've heard anything.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
So far, I agree
But I'm not sure it might not just be the precincts reporting.  Anything under 60% for him would surprise me.

[ Parent ]
The big urban areas (where you'd expect him to do better)
Are basically in.  Polk Cty. (Des Moines is in), Johnson (Iowa City) in.

[ Parent ]
Hmm
Any chance Bob Vander P can moutn a comeback with what's outstanding?

[ Parent ]
No
Vote totals are VERY low in most of the state.  Iowa has 99 counties but most of the ones left are tiny.

[ Parent ]
Bob is your classic screw the establishment choice
He's a none of the above pick, not a serious one.

[ Parent ]
Lowden leading Angle 37-33
Uh oh, Spaghettio.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

Nothing in yet from Washoe County
Angles base

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

[ Parent ]
Actually, read Jon Ralston's tweets, Angle might be CRUSHING Lowden......
You gotta listen to people who know the counties well enough to know how well each candidate needs to do in each county.  Ralston is very specific and clear that Lowden is underperforming in several places and in deep trouble.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
South Dakota
10:37pm: We're pretty confident in calling ND-AL for state Rep. Kristi Noem, who beat the more-or-less establishment choice, SoS Chris Nelson. You only need 35% to avoid a runoff in SD, and Noem has a 41-36 lead with most of the votes in.

You mean South Dakota

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan


AR will be closeish but Lincoln will win...
Time to turn our attention to the most event which will have the most significant effect on November -- NV-Sen

25, Democrat, male, Currently living and voting in PA-2, originally form OK-1

Or Orly Taitz for fun!
Seriously, didn't know she was running till yesterday!

[ Parent ]
But Seriously
I think that Reid can beat Angle or Lowden.  I think that Tarkanian would be the toughest to beat.

[ Parent ]
I think user RuralDem is in the babka lead
He projected 51.2/48.8 Lincoln/Halter. Sadly, I think I'm next at 50.3/49.7.

Of course RuralDem wins this
He knows all those crazy rural Arkansas Dems who hang "I <3 Blanche" posters in their living rooms.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
LOL
Um, I'm from Georgia, I know nothing about Arkansas nor do I know anyone from there.

Georgia > Arkansas :)


[ Parent ]
Wow
I just walked in the door and ran to my laptop to pull up SSP.

Thank y'all for providing good coverage. MSNBC for some reason isn't even covering the election like they did the past few weeks.....

Oh, and, go Lincoln!

Only problem is, it looks like Lincoln's numbers and Elliot's numbers rise and fall together because of Pulaski.

Elliot is certainly not an electable candidate :/


[ Parent ]
Congrats
This is a good night for you I assume? Besides Elliot that is, and I'm with you on that one. She is not going to win. Plain and simple.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
And in ME
Libby has a good 8% lead, while LePage has a 19% one.

LePage winner

Im curious about him.

[ Parent ]
I like Dems in NJ in November
I don't see any  loss of seats their based on tonight.  It'd be nice if all the Dems run good, non-corrupt campaigns.  Then the national parties could spend less on these very expensive markets for races (NY and Philly).

If only Andrews would have lost in some huge upset.
He just keeps getting more and more annoying. Talk about an opportunist.

[ Parent ]
He'll retire eventually
Don't worry.  I don't know how the Christie administration might color NJ for the future, but I tend to think if he bombs the state could move more Dem at the Congressional level.  Maybe only  aseat or 2, but maybe...maybe...just maybe...lol.

[ Parent ]
Thoughts
1. Alvin Greene.  Is his win likely do to a large AA turnout?  

2. Causey winning would be a huge plus, but if Elliot wins I don't think we hold that seat sadly.

3. Not surprised Halter isn't winning.  There was a real slip up post Primary day in intensity from Halter supporters.

29/D/Male/NY-01


Greene
unclear. he underperformed his statewide % in some heavily black counties like Richland (Columbia), Charleston, and Orangeburg.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
I
assume you mean NV not MV.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

NJ 6 (Almost done)
Little-6,671 (50.35%)
Gooch-6,577 (49.65%)

The problem for Gooch is that is there are only 4 precints left to report in Monmouth County and 3 left in Middlesex, looks like Little has it in the bag but this certainly is one of the closest races.


Politico calls it for Lincoln


For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

Called for Blanche
Congrats RuralDem. Sorry everyone else.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

AP calls it for Blanche
that's all folks.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


Next question
Does she have a chance to lose by less than 10%? I doubt it. Possibly less than 15%.

I wonder what this will do to Lincoln's derivatives spinoff provision. Does she think she needs that to campaign on that for the general election, and if so, will her colleagues give it to her?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
I can't believe
anyone would do anything for her for the general election. I mean, she got to be as Blue Doggy as she wanted on HCR. Even before she voted for the final thing, her numbers were suffering. I am normally not one for primarying conservative Dems who need to be that way to survive, but the fact of the matter is that Lincoln's centrism isn't helping her re-election. When her conservatism starts getting her re-election numbers like Dan Boren or Gene Taylor, that'll be the day I frown on primary challenges to her.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
I read
that in exchange for Lincoln's derivatives proposal either being watered down or completely eliminated, the Volker rule would be strengthened. So basically its a lose lose situation for the banks.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Grrrrrrrrrrrr, I hate how Poltico greys out its map
It's just pointless and not user-friendly

Obama won Lincoln the race
I hope she will show some gratitude in her final months in office. I'm doubtful.

I might argue it was President Clinton, not Obama, who perhaps pushed her over-the-top


For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Absolutely! Very Happy for Lincoln
She is still the underdog in the general but Clinton, who contrary to opinions on this blog and elsewhere, is still relevant and popular in Arkansas. Hopefully, the attacks from labor and the liberal blogs will help Lincoln with the moderate and conservative Democrats who will help decide this race.  

[ Parent ]
The problem
She lost many of the moderate and conservative Democrats and relied on the African American base to win. Halter could have combined the support of all Democrats in November. Lincoln will struggle doing it.

[ Parent ]
She's won twice before.


[ Parent ]
Huh
Halter has DKOS and the entire liberal atmosphere on his side.

MSNBC and everyone else is even saying moderate and Conservative Democrats gave her a victory.

Also, African Americans are actually fairly conservative on social issues, so it's a little unfair to throw them in the liberal category.


[ Parent ]
What it really shows
Is the over-simplicity of a one-dimensional model.  Socially, I suspect, AA voters are all over the place depending on location like everyone else (but, yes, probably a little more socially conservative).  Economically more conservative...that'd be a hard case to make.  Now, Lincoln may have done so many favors and tied herself so well to Clinton (and, to some extent, Obama since he went out of his way for her), but I would have hoped disadvantaged black voters would have seen her for the corporate hack she's usually been.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

[ Parent ]
No
I never said fiscally conservative, only socially conservative.

It just annoys me when people bring up moderate/conservative/liberal and simply lump all blacks as being liberal.


[ Parent ]
Daily Kos and Moveon do not equal Arkansas
Of course Halter has the progressive netroots on his side. However, in Arkansas he relied on support from rural counties. Outside of Arkansas Halter relied on progressive support and inside Arkansas some progressive support, but also many anti-Washington voters (many from the counties that gave Morrison large margins). Keep in mind that the Democratic Party of Arkansas is still quite conservative in its membership, as many voters have kept Democratic registration despite voting Republican at the presidential level. Lincoln took one of the most reliable Democratic counties, Pulaski County, in the state for her victory.


[ Parent ]
Yep
"Keep in mind that the Democratic Party of Arkansas is still quite conservative in its membership, as many voters have kept Democratic registration despite voting Republican at the presidential level."

Yes it is, and that's why Lincoln won. She had the support of the Democratic establishment.

She won Pulaski, which, if I understand right, is heavily black.

It looks to me like they split most rural counties, so do say he relied on rural support is overstating it.

I still think Halter was pegged as the candidate of outside interests. Liberals and labor outside of Arkansas wanted Lincoln out so bad, it wouldn't have mattered who ran.

The voters of Arkansas saw this, and rejected the idea of electing someone whose campaign consisted of and was supported by, mostly liberal interests.


[ Parent ]
Well
It was likely high African-American support that won her the race, which was helped with the President's endorsement, robo calls, and usage in television and radio advertisements. Perhaps Clinton's endorsement kept her margins up in many of the counties, although I would argue that Obama's endorsement was more important.

[ Parent ]
Obama could not have been a help outside the black voting community......
Obama is strongly disliked in white Arkansas.  His only base of support, his only real influence, is with black voters and the scattered few white liberals.

Remember Arkansas has the unique identity of having claimed Hillary as their favorite daughter in the Prez-08 primaries.  The nomination fight being what it was, there had to have been a lot of bad feelings toward Obama there that ran much deeper than anywhere else in America.

So I'd be shocked if Obama has any influence outside the black vote in that state.

No question Bill Clinton has strong influence with all Arkansas Democrats.  He easily mattered more.

But Obama certainly helped, the black vote went strongly to Lincoln.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Well..
If she thinks her record is what helped her beat Halter, why would she change now.  Especially if she thinks she can win.

I wouldn't expect too much.  Maybe they can call a long specialy session between election day and inauguration day and we'll really see.


[ Parent ]
Opposite Effect
It might just empower her like with Lieberman.

[ Parent ]
Couldn't AP
have used Maine's 16 counties instead of the million one-precinct zones?

If it bothers you that much
Politico has a county map.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Annoying, isn't it?


[ Parent ]
Congrats to Research 2000, for getting another one wrong


At This Point
I think they have to start being treated like Rasmussen.

[ Parent ]
Why?
Everybody got davis wrong, and this falls in the margin of error

[ Parent ]
537 Nate Silver
rates Rasmussen as above average and R2K/DailyKos as well  below average pollster right above ARG (any random guess) and Zogby's internet polls. The maligned SUSA is third from the top.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com...


[ Parent ]
Correct, people need to pay closer attention, DailyKos was same as private polling......
If you pay attention to what non-partisan political reporters were saying the past couple days, it was clear private polling showed Lincoln down.  Lincoln's own people were despondent and leaking the past couple days that she was toast today, and the unions and Halter thought they were gonna win.

DailyKos polled well, in the fact the same as the campaigns.  Everyone was just wrong.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
I'd love it if
Each firm would poll the same households with their various brand of polling and then compare results.  

Can we raise some money, create a list of phone numbers and ask all the agencies to track the polling.  We couldn't prove anything, but it'd be fun to see the results.


[ Parent ]
Polls...
Rasmussen (R)
Research 2000 (D)

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

[ Parent ]
Southern Primaries
are very hard to poll. Everyone was wrong in Alabama.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Also 59 out of 63
In Nate's pollster rankings.  

[ Parent ]
True
PPP is the best. I used to like SUSA, but they seem screwy lately.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
They've always seemed screwy until
right before election day, and then they nail it.  Their cross-tabs are always all over the place.  Their polls fluctuate wildly from month to month.  And then, when it's go time, they nail it.  I've heard that it's due to significant differences in the way they weight as opposed to other polsters.

Nobody can argue with the results, though.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


[ Parent ]
Yeah, pretty bad
Primary races certainly are difficult to poll, but they certainly could at least be right in a few of them. It's not good if a poll tells you nothing more than you knew before because you cannot trust it.

[ Parent ]
Turnout model
Can we please just admit their turnout model is way too optimistic?

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

[ Parent ]
R2K
 They were the last people to poll Alabama and found Davis by 7, and were the only ones to poll Arkansas and found Halter by 4. I'll wonder what Kos says  

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

12% of nevada Dem votes in, .2% GOP... they pay in chickens?
Why such a discrepancy?

I guess
we can call Blanche Lincoln the "Comeback Kid" eh?

Also she said on election night a few weeks ago: "They thought they could write us off! Well guess what! They got another thing coming! Another thing coming!"

At first I thought she was delusional, but I guess she was right.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12


Comeback Kid... for five months
then it's 'see ya later, alligator'

[ Parent ]
R2K
is the same as Rasmussen. Only its results are across the board wrong, not just screwed toward liberal Democrats.  

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

Where is the data that proves this?
n/t

[ Parent ]
538.com
R2K is the 59 out of 63 pollsters.

[ Parent ]
538 is misleading......
The 538 analysis rejiggered its pollster rankings to include polling going back to 1998.  Pollsters constantly fine tune their methodologies over time to do better, which doesn't mean they all improve over time, but it does mean you can't look at 12 years of data and assume it reflects a pollster's performance today.

I pay close enough attention to polling to say R2K is no worse, or better, than anyone else this cycle.  And at least they do jump into the fire right before a primary, even a runoff where the turnout model and accurate sampling are so difficult.  Rasmussen doesn't do that, since they risk being proven wrong and don't want that to undermine their ideological agenda.

And regarding AR-Sen D runoff, as I said in another comment, non-partisan political analysts were tweeting and blogging the past couple days that private polling showed Lincoln down 5 or so, and some of Lincoln's own people thought as much as a 10-point loss was possible.  So DailyKos was in line with private polling.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
If I were Halter, I'd blame Garland county, and its twi precincts.
That sucks though.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

If I were Halter
I'd be generous in defeat, and say you gave it a good shot against an incumbent, and ex-President from the state and a current President.

Well done.


[ Parent ]
He will
nothing about this campaign makes me think sour grapes is forthcoming.

[ Parent ]
You could
interpreted Lincoln's victory in two ways:

1) It might up her chances for victory in November because she actually had to campaign in the primary where John Boozman was almost on cruise control. Also the left and the unions went at her with everything they had and she still won proving that her "independent" streak is what Arkansans want, not a person who'll be a reliable vote for Obama and the unions.

2) Not a good sign when half of your party votes against you in a primary.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12


[ Parent ]
I doubt Garland County would
make up the difference anyway.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
NV Sen- Wahsoe County
http://www.co.washoe.nv.us/rep...

Not reported by AP yet Angle leads 40-27 in Washoe County (Reno)

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan


That's
her base isn't it? She ran for Congress there.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
So what does this mean...
For derivatives/financial reform?

It's heartbreaking to see Halter lose.
But now with California about to come in, I think it's time to move on.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


No California Results Yet
The polls just closed and they should have a big bunch of early votes around 8:15. Here's the link for the results: http://vote.sos.ca.gov/

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  


Not Blanche Lincoln!!!!
NOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!  

Ugh, not a fun thing to come to from getting my gank break materials.  Now I need this shit more than ever.  Ugh, boooooooooooooooooooo!!!!!!


Early trickle in California
Boxer at 75%, Fiorina up 43-37 over Campbell.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

san benito county 48% in... after 8 minutes!
They just make up the numbers?

(NorCal, relatively favorable to Campbell)


[ Parent ]
Joyce Elliot will win the Dem nod for AR-2
Damn.

Well
Since Lincoln has won, I hope all of the outside interests will either find something else to focus on, or support Lincoln.

Halter ran a good race, but I still think the outside groups did more harm than good. Basically, Halter wasn't the issue, the massive support from those outside the state was.

Just my view though.

Maddow, Schultz, and others are now bringing up Garland County. Halter only won by 4k there, and with the numbers still coming in, that county would not have done anything to change the end result.


She got a lot of interest group support herself.
There's no denying that Halter's candidacy was massively boosted by labor unions and liberal groups, but business interests went to bat for Lincoln.

[ Parent ]
Very True
That's true, she did have her own outside support. However, I'd say Halter had much more vocal outside support. The liberal blogosphere and labor outside the state were constantly bashing Lincoln and supporting Halter.

Lincoln had the support of the establishment Democrats in the state as well as President Clinton.


[ Parent ]
Not really
The gang at MSNBC seem to be pretty affirmative about Lincoln's win. A bit sad but they did not show it too much. Maddow seems to being fair and Ed congratulated Blanche a lot. Garland was barely mentioned.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Really?
When Olberman was on they weren't talking about anything but the oil spill, with election info at the bottom.

Once Maddow and Schultz came on they started bringing up Garland and how it might be an issue.


[ Parent ]
First Results in
 Which are not early votes actually. San Benito County where Obama won by 18 points is half in. Fiorina leads by 6. The Democratic primary gets more votes than the Republican primary fortunately with Democrats getting about 1,800 votes and the Republicans getting 1,500.

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  


I can't believe she pulled this one out
I'd say this easily qualifies as the biggest primary upset of the election cycle thus far. I don't hold out enough hope that she'll manage to beat John Boozman in the general election.

Along with the Sparks victory that no poll (public or internal) predicted, does this suggest that Southern primaries are harder to poll for some reason?


I won't believe any poll that uses a turnout model for a runoff
That's just speculating out of your butt

[ Parent ]
Not really
She did win the first round and polls showed her only slightly behind.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

[ Parent ]
I think some Southerners think polling is stupid
I think they intentionally say they're voting for the other guy and hang up.

Although people everywhere do that, I think Southerners especially are superstitious and do not want their "business" out in the open.


[ Parent ]
I'd agree, especially if...
...the poller sounds like they aren't local.  Nothing rural people like (I'm not Southern, but def born rural) more than screwing with city folk.

[ Parent ]
Can a Reid-Reid ticket win in NV
This will be weird right?  Like weird even for Nevada weird.

NV-03
called for Joe Heck over teabagging detritus.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


Steve Poizner's at 27%
Where's a laughing icon when you need it?

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

ME-GOV (R)
AP calls it for LePage

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


With Reno 40% in, Angle has pulled slightly ahead of Lowden
BUT...Lowden's narrowly leading in Clark County, which only has a trickle out so far. If she can hold there, I suspect she'll eek it out.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

Some bad news for Crazy lady
Washoe 40% in and Clark less than 1% in, and she has a tiny lead.  

Slight advantage Lowden right now.


Some good news in AR-1
Wooldridge should lose.

Thank God


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Also, I think it's time for another thread
This one is used up.

Looking at
The absentee's from Orange County, Hahn leads Newsom 44-41, and Aanestad (!!) leads Lt. Gov Maldo 39-33. Kelly squeaks Harris 23-22. iCarly CRUSHES DeVore and Campbell with 52-25-21.

Larry Aceves (?!, Superintendent Race) leads with 25%, while frontrunners Torlakson and Romero are 2nd and 3rd, respecively. Props 14 (top-two) has 54-46% supporting and 15 (fair clean elections ) is LOSING big 37-63, oh come on OC. Evil Prop 16 and 17 are winning with huge margins too.

16, Male, Democrat, CA-42/sometimes CA-32.


I voted Aceves
and most of the people I talked to about the race did as well.  He's from the left side of the aisle, has the LA Times endorsement, and isn't a politician.  I wouldn't be surprised to see him make the November ballot.

[ Parent ]
Sadly, Damon Dunn is trouncing Orly Taitz, 74-23


For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

California Props
13: 87-13
14: 60-40
15: 43-57
16: 55-45
17: 57-43

http://vote.sos.ca.gov/returns...

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan


You
have to hand it to my fellow Californians, 42 million of PG&E money really suckered them in.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Fiorina's now zooming forward at 58%, Campbell at 22%


For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

No surprises here
Carly wins big, Campbell 50% ahead of DeVore (even on planet Redstate).

Whitman wins easy too... nothing tos ee here kinds, move along, move along...


[ Parent ]
On the plus side.
NJ-12 and NJ-06 look safe this year and Reid is looking better than ever.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


CA-Absentees coming in
Ugh, all the props are going the wrong way, though the absentee vote probably skews conservative.  In CA-36, Harman leads 65-35.

I hope
We get a new thread and the AP link for California's results.

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  


The Gooch end up 67 votes shy in NJ-6
With just 1 precinct left.

Upset of the night
AP calls CA-SEN (D) for Barbara Boxer.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


And
Brown for Governator.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
If anyone wants information on some of the California races
I wrote a diary on many of them: http://swingstateproject.com/d...

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  


AR House
Elliott wins with 54%.  Causey leads by about 1,800 with only 16 precincts left, all in friendly territory.

CA-AG
Harris leading with all of 29.2%. Followed by Kelly, Torrico, and Lieu 18-14-13.

AR-1
Called for Causey.

No on 16, 17 gaining ground
16 Y=51.7% N=48.3%
17 Y=54.8% N=45.2%


Copyright 2003-2010 Swing State Project LLC

Primary Sponsor

You're not running for second place. Is your website? See why Campaign Engine is ranked #1 in software and support among Progressive-only Internet firms. http://www.mediamezcla.com/

Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?


About the Site

SSP Resources

Blogroll

Powered by: SoapBlox