Ipsos Public Affairs for the St. Petersburg Times/Miami Herald (5/22-24, registered voters):
Charlie Crist (I): 30
Kendrick Meek (D): 15
Marco Rubio (R): 27
Undecided: 23
(MoE: ±4%)
We've seen our share of Florida polls this cycle, but with a three-way Senate race and weirdo gazillionaires forcing themselves into the Republican gubernatorial primary and the Democratic Senatorial primary, it's always worth it to take a look at this freak state.
Ipsos lends another piece of weight behind the evidence that suggests that Crist is beginning his independent bid for Senate with a slight lead on Rubio thanks in part to significant support from Democratic voters. Crist leads Meek by 38-33 among Democrats, while trailing Rubio by 51-26 among Republicans. Crist also manages to clean up among independents, earning 39% of their votes to only 12% for Rubio and 7% for Meek. I still have to wonder if Crist's 26% among Republicans may represent something of a high-water mark, given that his campaign is now aggressively attempting to eat Meek's lunch. Still, Crist will always have Meek's presence on the ballot as a foil, and maybe that fact alone will help him retain some conservative-leaning votes that he might have otherwise lost.
Also interesting is the fact that Crist's veto of a controversial teacher "merit pay" bill appears to be a political winner, with voters supporting Crist's decision by a 53-29 margin. Of more immediate concern is that, by a 55-31 margin, voters want Crist to veto a bill that would require women seeking abortions to undergo ultrasounds at their own expense. That number includes a 47-40 plurality among Republicans, and a massive 72-26 spread among indies. This really looks like a no-brainer for Crist if he's looking to score some easy moderate cred.
Meanwhile, check out the Dem primary numbers:
Kendrick Meek (D): 33
Maurice Ferre (D): 10
Jeff Greene (D): 9
Undecided: 41
(MoE: ±6.5%)
Meek at 33% is some truly weak stuff by this point.
The gube race:
Alex Sink (D): 32
Bill McCollum (R): 34
Undecided: 26
(MoE: ±4%)
After seeing McCollum lead Sink by wide-ish margins for months, I'll take results like these. Sink manages to hold together Democrats almost as well as McCollum retains Republican support, while splitting independents down by the middle by 26-26. Not too shabby, if accurate.
Finally, we have the Republican gubernatorial primary:
Bill McCollum (R): 46
Rick Scott (R): 22
Paula Dockery (R): 3
Undecided: 25
(MoE: ±6.1%)
I'd like to see chrome-domed creep Rick Scott pull even closer, but I'll accept numbers like these for the time being. State Sen. Paula Dockery, meanwhile, has finally seen the writing on the wall, and pulled the plug on her pathetic campaign yesterday. Let's hope she endorses Scott! |
