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The 2010 mid-term elections, part 8: The 33 most vulnerable Democrat seats

by: Tarheeman1993

Tue Feb 23, 2010 at 4:39 PM EST


Overview

I am predicting that the Democrats will lose 28 seats (net) in the 2010 mid-term elections.  I believe we will win 5 seats held by the Republicans, while losing 33 Democrat-held seats.

I have already listed what I consider the 22 most vulnerable Democratic seats in the 2010 mid-term elections.  Thanks to all who have provided feedback.

33 most vulnerable Democratic-held seats in the 2010 mid-term elections

The first 22 seats were listed in my previous thread.  Without further delay, here is my final list of the 33 most vulnerable House seats:

1.  LA-03
2.  TN-06
3.  AR-01
4.  AR-02
5.  TN-08
6.  ID-01
7.  MD-01
8.  VA-05
9.  KS-03
10. AL-02
11. MS-01
12. WA-03
13. NM-02
14. CO-04
15. IN-08
16. OH-01
17. OH-15
18. PA-07
19. NH-02
20. VA-02
21. IN-09
22. NY-29
23. NV-03
24. NY-23
25. PA-11
26. TX-17
27. NH-01
28. PA-12
29. FL-24
30. NY-24
31. MI-07
32. FL-22
33. AZ-05

I should point out that in my own handicapping of these races, several of the above races are listed as "Tossup-Tilt D".  I believe we will win several of these races.  However, as most of you know, many of these races will be a nail-biter that could go either way.  If it wasn't for the current political environment swinging against the Democrats, I would believe we would retain at least half of these seats.  It's only February, so maybe the Democrats will pick up some momentum and retain many vulnerable seats.

As a side note, this exercise has been a lot of fun, and I really appreciate everyone providing insight on these races.  Feel free to comment on potential substitutes that can replace any of these seats that I have listed.  

Tarheeman1993 :: The 2010 mid-term elections, part 8: The 33 most vulnerable Democrat seats
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LA-03
Don't the Democrats at least have a bench in that district that they can draw from? I would rank TN-06 above it if only because the DCCC appears to have given up on holding that one.

Details
The top 11 in my list are in no certain order (same with the 12-22 range, and 23-33 range).

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
KS-03
Once we get a candidate locked down, we will do better in this district than you might expect.  We have a large base here.

26, D, MO-05, Hispanic

[ Parent ]
I think KS-03 is still winnable
KS-03 is not as conservative as many would think.  I still believe we have a chance, but until we select a credible candidate, I'm not putting too much faith that we will retain this seat.  At this time, I think this seat is one of the 11 most vulnerable seats we have to defend.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
Agreed.
Dems have pretty much given up on holding TN-06.  That's a shame, as it's the seat formerly held by Al Gore.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent

[ Parent ]
this diary makes me feel better
I expect us to lose most of those seats and pick up only a small handful of GOP-held seats, but even if the Republicans swept your whole list they wouldn't take back the House. A small swing in our favor that saved, say, 10 of these seats would make a big difference.

We desperately need prospects for Dems to improve in NH. Losing those two House seats and failing to pick up Gregg's Senate seat would be a disaster.


Great list - very consistent with mine.
I think we'll win:

AR-01, AR-02, TN-08, WA-03, PA-12 - superior Dem benches in open seat races.

FL-22 and FL-24 - strong incumbent fundraising.

NY-23 - because Doug Hoffman will fuck things up for the Republicans one way or another.

Only two not on your list that I think we'll lose - IA-03 and FL-08.  A lot of folks seem to disagree with me on both of those.  I think there are major problems with the candidates - Boswell just being generally lackluster (kind of Kanjorski-like but not as bad) and Grayson not because of his partisanship but because he shows some signs of mental instability.  I hope I'm wrong.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


I appreciate the feedback
I'm somewhat optimistic with PA-12 because we do have a strong bench and I haven't seen a Republican that has come out that I think is electable.  Regarding WA-03, I think this seat is vulnerable solely due to this district being very complicated to understand.  I'm feeling better about TN-08 because we do have a solid candidate.  I'm not yet convinced that we will hold on to AR-01 or AR-02.  Both districts like Dems on a local and statewide level, but I think they are very suspicious of Democrats going to DC.  

FL-22 and FL-24 are both districts that I show a slight tilt towards the Democrats.  Fundraising is part of my equation, so I agree with you on this seat.  I'm not as certain regarding NY-23 because of this districts historical trend towards Republicans.  However, I feel better about this race as opposed to LA-06 in 2008.  At least the opposition may be splintered which will give us enough ammo to win this district.

I have FL-08 as the 34th most vulnerable district, solely for the fact that Grayson appears to be one of the luckiest Democratic politicians in this cycle.  For some reason many Republicans are hesitant to challenge Grayson.  Grayson has a lot of character which will resonate well in his district.  Regarding IA-03, I will admit that I'm one of those who is not worried about losing this seat.  I have it rated as "Likely D".  Boswell will be more on defense this cycle than he has in the past, so I'm fairly optimistic that he'll survive.  

40, male, Democrat, NC-04


[ Parent ]
Boswell is lackluster
but the establishment choice against him, Jim Gibbons, is not ready for prime time, and the more experienced politician in the primary, Brad Zaun, doesn't have enough money. I think Boswell will win unless there is a total collapse of Democratic turnout.

[ Parent ]
Adler, NJ-3
This really should be on the list.  Adler is tied at the hip with a corrupt machine and is one of the dozen most conservative Democrats in the House.  He needs a big vote from traditional Democrats as his district has a slight Republican lean (52-47 Obama and 50-49 Bush over Kerry).  He's giving the base no reason to turn out.

The only thing Adler has going for himself so far is a weal Republican field.


Not this again
There are far more than twelve Democrats more conservative than Adler in the House. From what I can tell the only major bill he has voted down is HCR. And because his district has a Republican lean he also needs some independents and sane Republicans.

[ Parent ]
246th
Adler ranks 246th on lifetime crucial votes on progressive punch.  He votes on the liberal side just 33% of the time.  That rank puts him in the bottom dozen among Democrats in the House.  Nuff said.

[ Parent ]
Where are you getting your information from?
I just checked out the Progressive Punch website, and its showing Adler as 203rd most progressive (all issues) with a lifetime progressive score of 81.25%.  I'm not trying to start a pissing match, but this link shows a slightly different picture.  http://www.progressivepunch.or...

I will admit that ranking 203rd lifetime is not progressive enough.  In defense of Adler, he's (a) only had one year of being a representative, and (b) he represents a swing district that has been represented  by a Republican in previous years.  

40, male, Democrat, NC-04


[ Parent ]
Adler's district is incredibly polarized
Ocean county is kneejerk Republican, while Burlington is swing and Camden is heavily Democratic.  The only problem is that the portion of Camdon in the district is pretty small compared to the other counties.  

[ Parent ]
Washington Post ranks
27 more conservative Democrats than Adler. He is a fairly reliable vote in general and close to perfect on the most important issues.

http://projects.washingtonpost...


[ Parent ]
Truthfully
Measuring Adler as a congressman after only 1 year of service is next to impossible.  Many Democrats have started out as a conservative, only to later on become a genuine progressive or liberal.  An 82% score is low, but like you said, if he votes with us on the most important issues, he is reliable.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
Agree
Incidentally, National Journal finds 35 Dems more conservative.

[ Parent ]
Those rankings were ridiculous, though
Bernie Sanders didn't even show up among the 10 most liberal senators.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
He was almost on this list
I had Adler as the 35th most vulnerable Democrat, just one seat below Grayson (FL-08).  I think he will have a fight on his hand, but just like you mentioned, he's going against a weak Republican field.  If a credible Republican emerges, I would expect Adler's vulnerability to increase.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]

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