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SSP Daily Digest: 2/5

by: Crisitunity

Fri Feb 05, 2010 at 2:39 PM EST


FL-Sen: Jeb Bush has studiously avoided explicitly taking sides in the Florida Senate primary, but various actions (like sending out his sons to endorse Marco Rubio) have tipped his hand. Another moment like that today, as he said on a radio interview that he's "proud" of Rubio and the challenge he's mounted. Meanwhile, Charlie Crist seems to be digging in rather than making plans to switch to an indie or Dem bid: he's saying "he's no RINO," and perhaps more tellingly, now saying he opposes the repeal of "don't ask don't tell," a wedge issue he could be using to propel himself out of the GOP if he so chose. (h/t sapelcovits)

OH-Sen: Geez, this is just bad to worse for Jennifer Brunner. She's been holding off on reporting her fundraising again, and here's why: she raised $93,000 in the fourth quarter, and managed to burn through more than that, leaving her sitting on a whopping total of $60,000 in the bank (1% of what Rob Portman has). Clearly she thinks someone is going to bail her out at some point - I'm just wondering who she thinks it'll be.

FL-Gov (pdf): Republican internal pollster McLaughlin & Assocs. finds a sizable lead for Republican AG Bill McCollum over Democratic state CFO Alex Sink: 41-30. That's right in line with both Rasmussen and Quinnipiac's most recent looks at the race, so this one seems to be moving away from Sink for the time being.

IL-Gov: With all the new allegations popping up about pawnbroker-turned-LG nominee Scott Lee Cohen - on top of yesterday's news about his rap sheet, today's news features his steroid use and resulting 'roid rage and sexual violence -- I'm starting to wonder where the other Lt. Governor candidates were in terms of doing opposition research. For that matter, where was the media? That's the kind of thing that sells papers, if nothing else. At any rate, Cohen is saying he isn't stepping down (having invested more than $2 million of his own money in winning the race purely on name rec), while Pat Quinn is reduced to saying that "the situation will resolve itself." Ex-Sen. Adlai Stevenson is advising Quinn to take the same route he did in 1986 when he was saddled with a LaRouchie running mate, which is to abandon ship and make a third-party run. Of course, that didn't work too well for Stevenson, who lost anyway, although he was running an uphill fight against popular Gov. Jim Thompson.

The one bright spot for the Dems in all this is that the GOP may be months away from having a candidate. State Sen. Kirk Dillard, who came up 406 votes short, isn't conceding, and is saying let's wait until all the absentee and provisional ballots (possibly up to 10,000 of them) are counted. Even if he wants a recount, that won't be able to start until the race's certification in early March.

MN-Gov: The Democratic field in the Minnesota governor's race got a little smaller, as state Sen. Steve Kelley dropped out. He was probably motivated by his poor showing on Tuesday's informal straw poll, where he finished with 4%, behind at least half a dozen other candidates and "uncommitted" as well.

OR-Gov: With ex-SoS Bill Bradbury getting a Howard Dean endorsement, ex-Gov. John Kitzhaber just rolled out an endorsement of his own from another netroots favorite: Steve Novick, who barely lost the 2008 Senate primary. Kitzhaber, of course, was one of the few establishment figures to line up behind Novick, so Novick is returning the favor. (You've gotta love the photo of the two of them at the link.)

AL-05: Looks like the Democrats are moving closer to a candidate to take on Parker Griffith (or whoever defeats him in the GOP primary). Taze Shepard, a Huntsville attorney and elected member of the state Board of Education in the 90s, is considering the race. He has quite the pedigree, too: he's the grandson of John Sparkman, who represented the 5th from 1936-1946 and then was Alabama's senator from 1947 to 1979 (and was the Democratic VP nominee in 1952). Also, Griffith may have a little more company in the GOP primary, and it's an old foe: businessman Wayne Parker, who narrowly lost to the Democratic version of Griffith in the open seat race in 2008.

MA-10: There are increasing retirement rumors about Rep. William Delahunt, since, of course, the dominant narrative is that Democrats start to cry and run home as soon as usually-ignored Reps face a halfway-credible challenge. Also feeding the rumors, perhaps, are Delahunt's fundraising numbers from last quarter: $31K (although he is sitting on $568K). What may be most interesting is that the rumors all come with a likely replacement attached: Joe Kennedy III.

WA-08: Ex-Microsoft executive Suzan Del Bene brings her own money to the race (and lots of it - she already has $773K on hand, compared with Rep. Dave Reichert's $477K), but now she's poised to tap into a nationwide donor base, with an endorsement from EMILY's List.

Mayors: So primary season is here for real: the primary election in the New Orleans mayoral race is tomorrow. With a highly cluttered field and one clear frontrunner looming over the field (Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu), the real question here seems to be who manages to get into a runoff with Landrieu (who was polling at 45% in the most recent poll of the race). Other major opponents include John Georges, Rob Couhig, Nadine Ramsey, James Perry, and Troy Henry.

Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 2/5
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OH-SEN
The Brunner news makes me sad. I've met her. She's just great.  And yet I feel like giving to her now ... yeah, this is rough.

Can I ask this question about Jennifer Brunner?
I'm about to ask some questions that may be really, really amateur, but I mean well so please bear with me.

When you go to Jennifer Brunner's website and click on the "donate" link, it links directly to her ActBlue page.

Do the fundraising numbers that you're quoting include her haul from ActBlue?

I want to donate to Jennifer, but I also want my donations to be recorded publicly on sites like opensecrets.org. As ActBlue is a 527 organization, will my donation be recorded publicly if I donate through ActBlue?

Does anyone have a sense of why Brunner is linking directly to ActBlue on her website, as opposed to donating directly to her campaign?

I'm sorry if these questions are ridiculously silly. But I'm new to donating to politicians (partly because I'm also fairly new to "having an actual salary") and I want to do this in a particular way - I want to donate directly to her campaign, rather than going through ActBlue. Yet I haven't figured out how to do this, as her website goes directly to ActBlue.

I've actually been waiting for Brunner's fundraising totals to be posted here, as I knew this would be a good forum for answering these questions.


[ Parent ]
Good questions
Im quite curious about that as I didnt know ActBlue was a 527.

I remember Rick Noriegas had terrible fundraising for TX-Sen 2008, but he raised a killing on ActBlue and that was his main boon for fundraising.


[ Parent ]
happy to answer
ActBlue is just a conduit; that money goes to Brunner and is reported everywhere.  She (like all ActBlue recipients) just has to pay ActBlue's Auburn Quad subsidiary a percentage constituting the processing fees.

[ Parent ]
Thanks for your response, Adam.
That's really helpful. I appreciate you taking the time to comment.

I was confused because I had donated a small amount to Victoria Wulsin through ActBlue in 2006 and 2008, and my name never showed up on opensecrets.org or anywhere else that I could find. I'm still not sure why.

Anyway, I'll make a donation to her tonight.


[ Parent ]
Disclosure limits
Campaigns are only required to disclose the names of donors who give a total $200 or more in an election cycle.  Primary and general count as different cycles.  So, if someone gives $150 for the primary, and then $150 for the general, they would not appear because they never reached the disclosure threshold in a single election.  On the other hand, if someone gives two donations of $150 before the primary, they would appear on the pre-primary reports because their total contributions for the primary were over the threshhold.  If they gave another $50 for the general, though, it wouldn't appear.  


[ Parent ]
No, it would appear
Once you aggregate over the disclosure limits, all future contributions get disclosed.

[ Parent ]
For the election where you went over, yes
But not for future elections.  

[ Parent ]
Seriously?
Why give money to Brunner? Why not give it to Jean Carahan or Paul Hodes? Brunner offers nothing that Fisher doesn't have, and there are a lot more electable candidates that need money more than Brunner. Brunner has seriously screwed us many times and does nothing to benefit the Democratic Party at all! If Brunner is the Democratic nominee then I would move it from tossup to leans Republican in a heartbeat.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
I'm strongly considering
Moving to leans R anyway. All she is doing now is hurt Fisher. Stephen above says she is 50-50 for the primary. The CoH says differently - Brunner $60,000 to Fisher's $1.8 million! Yet to win the primary he is going to have to spend a chunk of that. For the good of the party she must drop out. I mean last quarter she barely raised more than Eric Wargotz in Maryland!

[ Parent ]
She needs to drop out and stay the as SoS
But it still makes me sad. :(

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
is it too late
for her to run for re-election as SOS?

[ Parent ]
She still has time
Though she'd have to hurry. Ohio's filing deadline is February 18.

My blog
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
...because I'm originally from Ohio...
...and have much more of a personal vested interest in trying to elect a progressive from Ohio than I do from other states.

I'm confused by this idea of "Brunner has seriously screwed us many times." Can you elaborate?


[ Parent ]
She
is making Fisher use valuable money in the primary, and blooding him up for the general. She is also putting the SoS seat in jeopardy, which in Ohio is VERY important. She may be a good smart person, but until she starts getting money on a more serious rate, then I don't see what she has to offer. Honestly, in all do respect, what about her do you like that Fisher does not offer?  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
not Jean
Robin :)

26, D, MO-05, Hispanic

[ Parent ]
Lots of candidates use ActBlue for donations
And ActBlue is a PAC (specifically, a "pass-through" PAC), not a 527. It would be illegal for a 527 to give money to a candidate.

[ Parent ]
Thanks for answering, David...
...and I really appreciate your response, but I'm a little confused by this:

http://www.actblue.com/faq#q9

Is ActBlue a 527, or a PAC, or what?

All of the above. For federal elections, ActBlue is registered with the Federal Elections Commission (FEC) as a Political Action Committee (PAC) and is not connected with any candidate, party, or other entity. We can directly contribute to and coordinate with candidates, and can transmit earmarked contributions from individuals to candidates. We are also registered with the IRS as a 527 political organization for many of our non-federal political activities. For our state-level political activities, in more than 20 states we are registered as a political committee.

It gets awfully complex at times, but that's part of what we do. We worry about the legal issues so that you can focus on fundraising for the candidates you support.



[ Parent ]
I didn't know that
About the non-federal stuff. For the purposes of federal elections, though, as they say, they are a PAC. I'm guessing the 527-ish aspects of ActBlue are distinct from the PAC aspects.

[ Parent ]
A PAC is a 527
PAC is an FEC designation used to determine limits on contributions, expenditures, etc.  527 is a reference to the tax code for political organizations.  All PACs are also 527s, but all 527s are not PACs.  

God Bless campaign finance law.  


[ Parent ]
yeah
This is very depressing to hear.  I know that grassroots donations can't be good at a time like this, but still, those numbers are not good at all.    

I think the Ohio Democratic party is going to have a fire drill on their hands if she does win the primary, which as of right now is about a 50/50 shot.  

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13


The DSCC will write the seat off
This is exactly what we've been saying. I guess it does highlight some weakness in Fisher that he can't pull away in the primary. But he has spend to do it now which is putting him in an even deeper hole for the general. I was thinking after the latest diary I would give her a shot if she could bring in $500,000 for this quarter so to say the least this is the end.

[ Parent ]
OR-GOV
Should have raised the other hand. Brandish the hook is comin' for ya.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

NOLA Mayor: my two cents
Disclamier: I'm volunteering for Mitch Landrieu.

Landrieu may actually have a shot at avoiding the runoff all together.  For one thing he starts out with huge positive name recognition and his opponents are mostly unknown.  Since the Saints are in the Superbowl and Carnival season just started people aren't paying that close attention conventional wisdom says that the most well known candidate will benefit.  On top of buyers remorse among many who voted for Nagin over Landrieu in 2006 (Nagin's approvals are in the 20s now) Mitch has a decent, though probably not great, shot at avoiding the runoff.

Either Georges and Henry are likely to get second.  Both are millionaires with Georges being white and Henry black.  Henry's been working the racial angle saying New Orleans needs a qualified black mayor pointing out that the DA and majority of the city council are white (though I haven't hear him mention Cao).  Personally I'd rather Georges gets second since it'll minimize the racial aspect of the contest.  Though Georges isn't really a great guy: he went from being a big Bush fundraiser in 2004 to an independent candidate for governor in 2007 to a Democrat in 2009.  

I'll add a bit more later, but REALLY hoping Mitch gets in without a runoff.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



More competition for progressive cred in OR
While I'm worried nationally about 2010, I love the current  political scene in this state.

Voters have just approved tax increases - on the wealthy, and on minimum business taxes.

Now the two main D candidates for Gov are competing for progressive cred. (Steve Novick ran to the left of now mostly progressive Senator Jeff Merkley, and still has a lot of progressive love in this state.)

Bradbury has his Dean endorsement, and "Bank of Oregon" plan to keep Oregon money away from the big banks.

Kitzhaber has his Novick endorsement, and health care cred (He was the driving force behind the Oregon Health Plan.)


Is Crist delusional?
Do any of you think he's doing anything other than setting himself up for a humiliating loss? Does he have any dignity?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


He's clearly going to lose
and running to the right is a downright foolish move for his campaign.  He has clearly already lost all of the right wingers he is now trying to get on board.  They know he is being a flip-flopper and they aren't going to be convinced otherwise.

Id argue, from a Minnesota perspective with no knowledge of the FL primary electorate, that he needs to stick to the middle and turn this into a battle between common sense conservatism and leadership vs wing nut tea baggery.


[ Parent ]
Crist
"Does he have any dignity?"  ....is that a rhetorical question? Because "no, none at all" immediately sprang to mind as an answer.

It's also hard to have dignity when you're married to a beard....um, beard manufacturer....ahem.

Then again, I guess opposing the repeal of DADT and keeping American war heroes in the closet would actually be an intellectually coherent position for a closet case.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


[ Parent ]
I'm thinking he must have something
On Rubio he is holding back. There is no other explanation that makes sense.

[ Parent ]
Yes, a rhetorical question
Because if you're determined to stay in a race you're going to lose, you should at least stand for something you actually believe in. Crist looked like a politician on the rise a couple of years ago. He is at risk of bringing on a pathetic end to his political career.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
IA-03
Republicans trying to stir up retirement rumors about Leonard Boswell again, but his spokeswoman told me emphatically today that he is running for re-election in 2010.

I figure he'll give it one more go-around.
Then, he'll retire when he gets redistricted in with another incumbent.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
he should have retired in 2008
then we would have been able to run a two-term rising star against Latham in the redrawn IA-03 in 2012. Instead we'll have someone like Christie Vilsack having to run against a nine-term incumbent on the Appropriations Committee (Latham).

[ Parent ]
NY-Sen: Larry Kudlow "80-90% likely" to challenge Schumer
Kudlow's already been polled against Schumer
It was in the same poll that showed Chuck with a 47% approval rating but mostly got ignored: Schumer wins 67%-25%.  So unless Schumer has some horrible secret or he hires Marth Coakley as his campaign manager he should have zero to worry about.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
Agreed, although with Kudlow, I think this goes from Solid Dem to Likely Dem
Playing around with a likely voter model...

Dem - 45%
GOP - 30%
Indie - 25%

        D  R  I
Kudlow - 3/87/40 = 37%
Schumer - 97/13/60 = 63%

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


[ Parent ]
I really think we should wait and see before we change anything
I'm willing to guess Kudlow is unknown to most people and I really think he's overestimating how much money he'll get from corporations.  To my knowledge they really don't hate Schumer that much and don't want to sink in millions to a long shot.  Besides Kudlow probably has some serious liabilities: it shouldn't be too hard to find a bunch of clips of him saying really stupid stuff like praising the Bush economic plan.  If he runs we can't just write him off as some guy but it's still solid in my book unless Kudlow demonstrates otherwise.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
If true
Does that mean they are getting someone better for Gillibrand?

[ Parent ]
Highly unlikely
After all, with the exception of Pataki, just about every "high-profile" (if you consider Peter King and Susan Molinari that) NY Republican has opted to officially pass on the race. That being said, my suspicion is the state GOP believes the presence of Harold Ford could do enough damage to Kirsten Gillibrand for a moderate no-namer like Bruce Blakeman to be competitive. Gillibrand's warchest is indeed immense, but Blakeman could easily drop millions of his own wealth into the race.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
AL-05: Taze Me Bro
Weird name aside, Taze has got the good ole boy credentials down pat. Who wants to bet he'd be a strong fundraiser?

I'm a little worried that with Wayne Parker getting in that Griffith might somehow survive the primary with the voting-for-actual-Republicans vote split between Brooks, Parker and Phillips. If it was just Brooks, Griffith and Phillips, I think Brooks would win.

Still, that might not be too bad. Local Dems are probably furious with Griffith and local Republicans don't seem to be enamored either so a strong conservaDem could probably pick up enough crossover votes to knock him off.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


You mean
Splitting the "Parker" vote?

[ Parent ]
Alabama has a RUNOFF system...
... so there won;t be a split that puts Griffith back in.  

Illinois could take a page out of their book on that too, BTW.  


[ Parent ]
From what I can tell
I'd say that Griffith winning the Republican primary can only be a good thing, in terms of the general.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
At
the end of the day I want Griffith to be tea bagged soooo freaking bad! I don't care about the general, because all I want to see in the race is Griffith regretting what he did, and if he lost the primary then he would get what he deserved.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Revenge leads to the dark side
:P

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Yeah but
I heard they have cookies over there, so I'm thinking of going over...

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
You have
heard correctly.

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7

[ Parent ]
LOL at Crist being against DADT.
Oh Charlie...

Ny-Gov: Can things get worse for Patterson? We might be finding out soon.
"The last few weeks have brought two major eruptions of rumors concerning Paterson's private life: reports of nuzzling at a New Jersey restaurant and being caught in semi-flagrante in a utility closet in the Governor's Mansion -- stories that Paterson and his press office have vehemently denied."

Apparently the New York Times will have a story about this in the coming days...

http://blog.timesunion.com/cap...

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



Every cloud
If it makes him go away I look forward to it.

[ Parent ]
Let's hope but Patterson's been pretty stubborn
One thing's for sure: with the John Edwards stuff (and to a much lesser extent the Scott Lee Cohen stuff) I'm really not looking forward to another story about Democrats and their messed up sex lives.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
Countdown to it being because of race
3...2...1...

[ Parent ]
Whatever
Very few New Yorkers think Cuomo's challenge has anything to do with race and if Patterson plays that card it'll only make that number drop further.  Besides considering the last white Governor left office because of a sex scandal it will only be harder to say "I'm being forced out because of race."  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
Oh I agree
But that is his MO.

[ Parent ]
Weird stuff in OH-17
Check out this CQ Politics article:

"'Tea Party' Democrat and Maybe Traficant, Too, in Ohio 17"

It's worth playing the video clip of Dan Moadus at the Tea Party event. It's interesting that he says he's for the 1st,  2nd, and 10th Amendments but doesn't mention others, such as the 4th and 5th, or for that matter, the 14th. I suspect many Tea Partiers would have problems with those.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


Dear Scott Lee Cohen
unless you want a Republican to keep Illinois' distorted Congressional map, while hindering the progress on issues you emphasized, RESIGN from the ticket.

Quinn/Cohen isn't going to win. And Quinn will lose as a third party candidate.


The state legislature has talked about eliminating the Lt. Gov post
Though if we somehow get rid of Cohen without doing that I really hope we don't pick one of his opponents.  You have to wonder about their campaigns when they can't do basic opposition research.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
Art Turner, Dan Hynes, David Hoffman, Raja Krishnamoorthi as possible Cohen replacements
Art Turner - finished second in the Lt Gov race, but ran a poor campaign.  he's still a good chance to get the nod as he is tight with the party apparatus.

Dan Hynes - lost the governor's race to Quinn; people are hoping for a Team of Rivals scenario, but Hynes and Quinn really hate each other so it might not be offered or accepted.

David Hoffman - the Senate runner up, he'd be a good choice, but isn't likely to get it due to Alexi's influence. Not sure if he'd want it.

Raja Krishnamoorthi - young former Obama policy advisor, he lost a tight race for Comptroller this year to the machine's candidate, but Quinn apparently is impressed by him.


[ Parent ]
Quinn won't go 3rd party
He's learned the lesson of '86 Adlai Stevenson who, after a LaRouche candidate somehow won the primary for Lt Governor, was forced to run as a 3rd party and was trounced.  Quinn and Dem leaders doing everything they can to get Cohen out, and I think they'll be successful within the next week.

[ Parent ]
It will be hard
I mean if you spent 3 million dollars on an election, would you just walk away? Cohen has a lot invested in this, and I don't see a scenario where Cohen steps down voluntarily. There was a real failure in vetting the candidates by both the Illinois Democratic Party and the media.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
I think Cohen will walk away
absolutely agree with you re: the failure of the Illinois Democratic Party and the media.  while I certainly could be proven wrong, I see two reasons why Cohen will step aside.

1) Cohen is many things, but he is not stupid.  He knows he has virtually no chance of winning with himself on the ticket, he knows he'll be hated, and blamed for the loss.  He'll realize that it is better to step aside now rather than endure this and be blamed for the loss.

2) Cohen has had some tax problems.  where there's smoke, there is fire.  party insiders are likely working on finding some fire that would be involve so much potential legal trouble for him, that he'll have no choice.

Aside from that, beyond the headlines announcing he has no intention of stepping down, he actually has hinted that he would re-consider if he becomes a drag on Democrats.


[ Parent ]
What does Cohen have to loose?


Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Does the IL Democratic Party.......
not determine who qualifies as a Democrat? In Tennessee in the 2008 cycle the Democratic Executive Committee removed a sitting State Senator from the Democratic ballot line after a disputed primary by saying she did not meet their standards to be the party banner carrier. Of course this State Senator had enabled the Republican take-over of the State Senate in 2006, but I would think some rational reason, based on his troubled background, could be found to remove Cohen from the ballot line.

Democrat: TN-8

[ Parent ]
MN Primary Date change
....A massive defense spending bill signed into law last year contains a provision that requires states to give overseas voters, many of whom are members of the military, at least 45 days to receive and mail back their general election ballots this fall....

....Although Pawlenty vetoed a wide-ranging election overhaul bill that contained the primary change last spring, he indicated last fall that he could support the shift.

His spokesman, Brian McClung, said Friday that Pawlenty "supports moving the primary election in order to meet the new federal requirements."

Legislative leaders unveiled a bill Friday that would set the primary for Aug. 10 instead of Sept. 14, as it's currently scheduled.

http://www.startribune.com/pol...

Moving up the Primary date would be a break for the DFL. The Democrats will have a contested primary for Governor, the Republicans probaby will not. The more post primary time to rally around the winner the better.

BTW how many other states will have to change Primary Election dates to comply with Federal Law?

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan


Hm
Hawaii is moving to August.

NY and MA will have to move into August.

I think WI is a September primary. So is DE, MD (in Gubernatorial years), WA might be outside the window barely

Oh yeah.. Louisiana is gonna need to deal with their September/October split.

This all won't be sorted out until 2012 or until the states start getting sued.


[ Parent ]
WV
I know we don't usually talk about Presidential elections per se, but what do you all think of this DailyKos subthread?

WTF is up with West Virginia?

Do any of you agree with this claim?

It seriously wouldn't be that hard to win them back, IMO.  It just means taking their genuine concerns seriously like the Kennedys did.

The President shows up to CHC's the stimulus funded, shows up to schools where teachers still have jobs as a result, shows up to Americorps projects and talks about how the Theodore Kennedy Serve America Act made them possible...numbers will move.

For the record, I think there's a really, really slim chance that Obama could carry WV in the 2012 election. If he did, I'd expect him to also be winning states like AR, TX, SC, MT, ND - basically, an almost total wipeout of the Republican candidate. And I'm not convinced that even in a landslide victory over Palin, Obama would win WV or the other Southern states I mentioned.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


No
Won't win Arkansas either. The other four a possible if he won with close to 60% of the vote.

[ Parent ]
He won't win 60%
no matter what, and I agree that he won't win Arkansas, South Carolina, or West Virginia. Depending on the candidates, in a huge rout, maybe he'd have a chance at Georgia. I can't see Texas as much of a possibility in 2012, either.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
Going on swing
He won 53% so Missouri is basically nothing but to win Montana would need 56% and Georgia 58. Arizona is unknown because of McCain's favorite son status. Unfortunately at the moment he would do well to win Pennsylvania again. Fortunately there is a long way to go yet and I still think he is matching Reagan step by step.

[ Parent ]
Georgia is no where near that far away.


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
Doh
Aplogies. Swing is half the margin. You were correct. So MT is actually 55 and Georgia 56.

[ Parent ]
It really depends a great deal on who his opponent is
and also, of course, on what he and Congress have been able to accomplish in 4 years.

I just read something very bad: According to an article on, I believe it was The Hill, Congress can pass only one item by Reconciliation per session. Of course, it remains to be seen whether the jellyfish in the Democratic Caucus will even pass ONE thing that way, but if they aren't willing or/and able to really effect the change that the voters want, which I believe basically amounts to a good government that makes their lives palpably better, their chances to win anything will be very poor.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
Opponent doesn't matter so much
It the economy doesn't improve anybody could beat him but if you look through history I don't think anybody who won because of a bad economy has lost because of one. It just doesn't take that long to recover no matter how bad it is.

[ Parent ]
The opponent matters a great deal
for which states vote which way. Compare the likely results for Palin as opposed to Romney in a general election. Compare the likely results of Huckabee as opposed to Pawlenty.

The opponent also matters - though possibly somewhat less so - in terms of which party wins the White House. I'm not sure why anyone would want to deny anything so intuitive.

Interesting about a recovery taking place in 4 years, though.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
Oh sure in terms of the states yes
Think of it this way. The people who lost re-election in the 20th Century because of the economy didn't win because it was bad. Bush, Carter, Hoover, Taft. But maybe that is going back too far.

[ Parent ]
Taft didn't lose because of the economy obviously


[ Parent ]
Taft was Scozzafava'd from the left
From when the Republican party was the progressive party.

(though interesting arguments can be made otherwise based on Wilson v TR views on regulation)


[ Parent ]
WV's Economy
Is a reason why he's probably got a much better shot in WV than he does in AR or SC. He's not at all likely to win in WV, but relative to the rest of the country the economic decline in WV hasn't been bad at all. Sure the Appalachia to Oklahoma line is the one area of the country where Obama did poorly in '08 in terms of national tides. But within that area, WV isn't Obama's biggest problem (or at least it's not AR).

[ Parent ]
New Kentucky Senate numbers
http://www.rasmussenreports.co...


Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

Would like to see primary numbers
Mongiardo is a non-starter.

[ Parent ]
The problem with Mongiardo
is he has higher negatives and less unknowns compared to Conway. Plus Beshear's approvals could go down, and that could hurt him as well.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Not necessarily
Mongiardo can just say, "I hated Beshear before it was cool!" ;)

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Beshear
has given a full endorsement to Mongiardo.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Yeah but...
remember Mongiardo's little rant?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
You mean
....his impression of Rahm Emanuel? I thought it was spot-on.

But yes, Mongiardo's a douche and I think he'd be easier to beat in the general than Conway. So...Team Conway.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


[ Parent ]
I have to say
that this is one of the few times that I am pushing for the more progressive candidate in a solid R state like Kentucky. I think Conway has a much better shot, although it would still be an uphill battle.          

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]

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