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SSP Daily Digest: 12/30

by: James L.

Wed Dec 30, 2009 at 7:48 PM EST


Dave's Redistricting App: If you use Dave's App, please don't close your browser window/tab when you take a break. Whenever you load a new instance of the app, it causes a big bandwidth hit, especially when you open up New York state. So to help Dave conserve bandwidth, leave your browser open once you've loaded whatever you're working on until you're finished with that project. Thanks! (D)

AZ-Sen: Ex-Rep. J.D. Hayworth says that he may be ready to start "testing the waters" for a primary challenge to John McCain. Hayworth was recently seen in D.C., holding a joint fundraiser with Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio that raked in $100,000. Hayworth's share of the proceeds went directly to help alleviate his outstanding legal bills.

CT-Sen: Well, this is awkward. Before Chris Dodd led the attacks on AIG for its executive compensation fiasco, Dodd was in AIG's offices, collecting checks from their employees.

MA-Sen: Republican Scott Brown has launched the first ad of his campaign, making a totally cheeseball comparison between himself and JFK.

NY-Gov: Basil Paterson, David's dad and former SoS, raises the ugly specter of the 2002 gubernatorial primary between Carl McCall and Andrew Cuomo as some kind of "warning" to Cuomo. (D)

AL-05: As we expected, PSC Commissioner Susan Parker has turned down the opportunity to challenge Parker Griffith in 2010. This leaves Democrats without a top shelf candidate, but there are other options worth considering. One potential candidate, state Rep. Randy Hinshaw, talks with Left in Alabama about the campaign that he'd like to see the Democratic nominee run. Doc's Political Parlor hears that Deborah Bell Paseur is unlikely to run, and that Hinshaw is "as likely as anyone" to go for it. Madison County Commissioner Bob Harrison is also thinking about it.

CA-19: The Defenders of Wildlife are gearing up to do whatever it takes to prevent Richard Pombo from re-entering Congress (as he is considering), even if it means supporting another conservative Republican for the seat of retiring GOP Rep. George Radanovich. Meanwhile, Taniel notes that ex-Fresno mayor Jim Patterson is a Club For Growth protege -- so this could be a pretty lively primary.

LA-03: State Rep. Nickie Monica has become the first Republican to file for the seat of Dem Rep. Charlie Melancon.

TX-10: Foreign policy consultant Dan Grant, who lost a 2008 Democratic primary to local celebrity judge Larry Joe Doherty, has taken his name out of consideration as a last-minute replacement for businessman Jack McDonald, who withdrew his candidacy for the seat of GOP Rep. Mike McCaul last week.

NC-10: Here's something interesting we missed a while back: Iredell County Commissioner Scott Keadle is challenging Rep. Patrick McHenry in the GOP primary, and he's backed his play with $250K of his own money. It's not really clear what exactly Keadle's beef with McHenry is - he seems to be running a 1994-esque campaign, accusing McHenry (who's only held office since 2005) of turning into a "career politician," and pledging to serve no more than three terms himself. (Hat-tip: Reader IR) (D)

VA State Sen: Hotline on Call takes a look at a crucial special election between ex-Fairfax Co. School Board member Steve Hunt (R) and Del. Dave Marsden (D). Marsden and Hunt are running to replace Republican AG-elect Ken Cuccinelli. If Democrats somehow win the seat, they'd be able to pad their razor-thin majority in the Senate to 22-18.

NYC-Mayor: The Swing State Project has gotten its hands on the precinct-by-precinct results for the 2009 New York City mayor's race. You can also check out our entire storehouse of obscure election returns and otherwise-unpublished polling memos at the SSP Document Collection. For some tasty eye candy and analysis, SSP Research Bureau Chief jeffmd has put together some beautiful maps comparing Thompson's performance to Obama's. (D)

Polltopia: Pick PPP's next state polling target: Alabama, Connecticut, Illinois, Florida or Massachusetts.  

James L. :: SSP Daily Digest: 12/30
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Disappointment
It is very disappointing to see TX-10 in the position it is in right now.  Obviously as someone else pointed out the CD which is TX-10 may change entirely after the census so it may not be that big of a loss.

Time for someone in Connecticut to have "the talk" with Chris Dodd.


NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

I agree, I think we should all call Dodd's office every day till he drops out


[ Parent ]
Agreed
At this point, I don't think the potential bloodiness of the GOP Primary even matters. Even Linda McMahon would trounce Chris Dodd.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
On social issues
Linda would seem to be a better fit than Simmons. I dont know where she actually literally stands on the issues but i cant imagine a head of a company like WWE being anywhere near socially conservative. more of the libertarian type. But on issues like labor...man, shes gonna be way too conservative for CT. Just going by how she absolutely refuses to allow her workers to unionize.

[ Parent ]
So electorally...
I dont know what will mean more, in a GE, for Linda...her probable social libertarian streak or her probable far right labor positions. I have a feeling itd be the latter.

[ Parent ]
Polltopia: Massachusetts???
Silly waste of resources.

What we need is a Connecticut poll without Dodd.  if Blumenthal wins by 20 points, Dodd's writing is on the wall.  If Blumenthal performs WORSE than Dodd, well then that is a whole different story.  Right now people want Dodd to go because they presume a different Dem would do better, so it would be nice to see if there is actual evidence of that or not.

Rassmussen with is poisoned sample polls interestings stuff, but PPP ends up with joke polls.


We need to poll Massachusetts once
Just to make sure that nothing funny is going on but in term of CT. PPP made it pretty clear early in their tweets that whether Connecticutt won or not, they would be doing a poll in January with Blumenthal.

[ Parent ]
WTF? Massachusetts?
Massachusetts is a lock, unless Martha Coakley is found with a dead boy...er, girl? Even then....

I'm voting Alabama, even though it's losing. I want to know if Davis is really the lock on the gubernatorial primary everyone thinks he is.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


[ Parent ]
If something funny was going, what would we do?
Pray?

Polling MA is useless.  The candidates are set, the stakes are obvious (a Rep winning would be shocking).  Total waste of resources.


[ Parent ]
Hammer him with negative ads
Send big guns up there to campaign. But yeah if there was a problem the campaign internals would say so.

[ Parent ]
They should do Chris Murphy
just for good measure!

We've got a lot of work to do in CT for the next two cycles.


[ Parent ]
Maybe Beeswax too
Can't be bothered looking up the spelling. Gives Lamont a clear shot at the Gubernatorial race. Oh hell test Ned too.

[ Parent ]
Polling Blumenthal is a waste
Polling Blumenthal is a waste IMHO. The guy loves being AG. As he as stated many times being AG is his dream job. He could have walked into the Governor's office a few years back if he wanted to but he didn't. He really loves being AG and I am not sure he would want to be a US Senator.


Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
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[ Parent ]
Wasn't he encouraging talk
Around challenging Lieberman before Dodd started looking toasty? Besides does no harm to test whether a retirement would really make much difference. I suspect it would a la The Torch but it is just supposition.

[ Parent ]
That's not the point
Hobody really cares about him specifically.  The idea is to poll "strong Dem" by name, and then compare it to Dodd.

[ Parent ]
Scott Brown's new is ad is disgusting BTW
To compare himself to JFK is a personal disgrace. Brown is using the same campaign technique's that won him his state senate seat. Lie Lie Lie until enough people believe you to win. I hope Coakley makes roadkill out of this slimeball on election night.

Whoever knew Brown would try to evoke the spirit of Dan Quayle?


For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
and the Lloyd Bentsen clip is available for
   the response ad. If there is one; even teh GOP establishment sees that he has no chance of winning the seat.

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28

[ Parent ]
The music
in that ad is just horrible. Someone phone Scott Brown and tell him to fire whoever is putting that music in his ads.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Read on another blog how...
JFK wanted to cut the highest tax rate from like 91% to 20% less...and yet Brown is still trying to compare himself to JFK on taxes. Sure going from 91% to the current or Clinton-era levels is just economically insane, unless its done very slowly within an 8 year period, but its still unbelievable how he can compare himself to JFK on the issue of taxes. They may both wanted to cut it...but its apples and oranges. And for all we know JFK, if he were alive today, would have wanted a tax rate for highest earners far above what Obama, Bill Clinton and other Democrats want. So I think this "strategy" of tying himself to JFK will just look silly to MA voters. Itd be like a very conservative Republican saying, 'well we both want to end segregation!' Or going further back to Lincoln, 'we both want to end slavery!'. It says nothing about where you stand on modern day issues.

[ Parent ]
And wasnt saying
what JFK wanted was economically insane. 91% to 20% less isnt insane at all. sorry if i misspoke there.

[ Parent ]
Someone on Political Wire
Suggested the response should be that he wants to double the top bracket.

http://politicalwire.com/archi...

Some good links in there.


[ Parent ]
VA State Senate
We should be able to win this seat.  Janet Oleszek ran a terrible campaign back in 2007 and still only lost to Cooch by less than 100 votes.  Marsden is about as good of a candidate as we could have for that race IMO.  The only disconcerting trend here is how bad Democratic turnout has been during 2009 between the Co. Executive Race (which Sharon Bulova came way too close to losing) to the Governor's race.

Not holding my breath
Democrats aren't turning out in these special elections, and Marsden isn't a very exciting candidate.

[ Parent ]
Do not
take anything for granted. I rate this race lean Republican right now. Not because I think Bob McDonnell broke the back of Fairfax Dems, but because after Warner (2001 and 2008), Kaine, Webb, and Obama winning NoVa in a landslide, we automatically assumed that NoVa is unwinnable for Republicans for the next few years. Also I'm disturbed the Democrats are using Creigh Deeds strategy of focusing on social issues and nothing else again. Do they really think making social issues a centerpiece of your campaign will work? Remember Bob McDonnell won Fairfax County!

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Ugh, hearing about the Deeds country strategy makes me sick
Creigh Deed's strategy to win was to win over rural republican counties and thus not focus on Northern Virginia. It was a failure and he lost both NOVA and rural VA. Had Creigh Deeds focused heavily on GOTV in NOVA and moved slightly to the left to exite the democratic base the worst case scenario would have been 52% McDonnell 48% Deeds with the potential to have been 50% Deeds 50% McDonnell with Deeds eeking out around a 5,000 vote win. However, Creigh Deeds thought he knew more than Mark Warner, Tim Kaine, Jim Webb and Barack Obama in terms of campaign strategies.

[ Parent ]
McDonnell won Fairfax
because Creigh Deeds ran a campaign that appealed to rural conservatives and not suburban moderates.  Also mcDonnell played up his ties to Northern Virginia.

It was the same reason why Bev Purdue almost lost Mecklenberg County (Charlotte) in North Carolina in 2008.  She ran a campaign that tried to cater to rural conservatives and would have lost if Obama didn't turn out blacks.  If not for redistricting, I would have voted for the Republican. The urban moderate Republican (Charlotte mayor) represented my interests much more than does a rural Blue Dog.  If she runs the same campaign in 2012, Purdue will lose badly.      


[ Parent ]
She should be glad shes not up for re-election in Nov. 2010
Like how some Governors have 2 year terms (NH and VT coming to mind, but perhaps the only examples). She is already in the toilet in her approval ratings although i suspect the national economy is a huge reason for it. Im just hoping that someone like Virginia Foxx doesnt decide to take advantage of this and run. Having her a Governor...ugh.

[ Parent ]
Didnt mean to say have her as mine
Im stuck with Rick Perry. Although im seriously considering moving to Asheville sometime in the next couple or few years. As I love that region and Asheville's culture is more up my alley than my conservative suburban culture.

[ Parent ]
If Purdue's getting creamed in polling in late 2011
...hopefully someone can muscle her out for Roy Cooper. It's nice having a deep bench in North Carolina, and given Cooper's lack of interest in moving to Washington, I presume he's got a weather eye on the statehouse.

[ Parent ]
Purdue doesn't even matter for redistricting
Unless the laws have changed since 2002, North Carolina's redistricting is completely decided by the legislature, with no governor veto.  

[ Parent ]
Her performance
in Mecklenburg County can be partially attributed to Mcrory (her opponent) being the mayor of Charlotte. Also, Perdue outperformed Obama statewide, which weakens the comparison to Deeds (and the claim that Obama's coattails brought her into office, but I'm getting offtopic.

[ Parent ]
Nothing off topic about that
Welcome to SSP!

[ Parent ]
Not really
The North Carolina Democratic Party is rather strong, and is used to winning despite weak performances by the national party.  The expectation is that the Governor candidate will be competitive even with the national Democratic candidate losing North Carolina by around 10%.  It was quite different in 2008, it was quite clear to me that McCrory probably was going to  win until October.

If Obama had not run a campaign in North Carolina and turned out thousands of blacks and youth who would not have voted normally, Purdue would have lost, and even Hagan would have had a tougher campaign.  It boosted Democratic performance by a good 5-8% IMO.  

Purdue underperformed Obama by 13% in Mecklenberg.  That is not simply a hometown effect.  She was very weak in the metro areas, while having the traditional performance in the historically Dem rural areas.  It was solely due to heavily increased Dem turnout that Purdue won.


[ Parent ]
I did say partially hometown effect
And you're right that Perdue didn't do well in metro areas. However, her weakness compared to Obama didn't translate to McCrory votes 100% of the time, oftentimes defectors voted for Mike Munger, the Libertarian candidate who outperformed his statewide average in Orange, Wake, and Durham counties (3 of the major metropolitan areas). He didn't do as well in Mecklenburg county, probably due in some part to McCrory's hometown effect, again.

[ Parent ]
Perdue outperformed President Obama in NC in '08
Perdue won 50.3-46.9
Obama won 49.7-49.3

Given the "straight party" voting option in NC, ref http://results.enr.clarityelec...

(about 1/2 the votes used the "straight party" option - and they went D 58.8-40.4)

I think it's fair to say that NC has more of a "coattail" effect than other states.

Since Perdue's margin is larger, I suggest the coattails would come from her voters.

Therefore, I believe it's quite possible - if Perdue weren't running, Obama may not have won NC.


[ Parent ]
Oddly, straight party in NC doesn't include President.
Not quite sure why that's the case, but for a long time people were talking about the "Obama-Straight-Flip", where you'd punch for Obama, then Straight Party Dem, then flip to the other side and vote for judges.

[ Parent ]
Your theory is good
However, the straight ticket option in NC is misleading: it does not include the president, so you must vote separately for that office. So a better explanation would be that Hagan (who won 53%-44%) is the reason NC has a Democratic governor.

[ Parent ]
Whoops
My bad Jeff, slow computer and didn't see you'd already said that.  

[ Parent ]
Figures....
I moved to NC just after election day '00 and left a few months before election day '04....

Thanks for the clarification.


[ Parent ]
In NC, there were a lot of voters who were excited about
voting for Obama but didn't care much about the down-ballot races (who either voted for McCory or who didn't vote at all).  And there were a lot of other people who vote for Democrats on the state level but won't vote for a Democrat (particularly a black Democrat) for Pres.  So it's hard to say whether either of them really had coattails.

[ Parent ]
Do you have any data on
Obama-McCory split ticket voters?

If that was a significant group, it would be an interesting demographic, perhaps a test of the "Obamicon" grouping in the South.


[ Parent ]
I couldn't find any exit polls
But I did find this (http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2008/09/ticket-splitters-in-focus.html) poll from September '08. 79% of voters were either voting for both Mccain and McCrory or for both Obama and Perdue. Of the remaining 21%, 38% were voting for Obama and McCrory. This is equal to 8% of the total electorate. This may seem insignificant, but Jensen says that this is a change from past NC elections where it was a much higher percentage that voted for the Democratic governor and Republican president. Also, going back to the earlier comment, he mentions that a lot of these people are from Charlotte, which may mean this is an impermanent voting pattern caused by McCrory being Charlotte mayer.
p.s.-somebody please tell me how to better integrate links.

[ Parent ]
That is helpful, thanks.
So a closer analogy would be Kerry-Riordan voters in CA, if Riordan became Gov in '02.

[ Parent ]
If not for my assumption
that Purdue was needed for redistricting, I would have been one.  I am far from an Obamacon.  There were many Obama-McCrory voters in the metro areas.   I'm almost certainly not going to vote for Purdue in 2012 if the GOP runs anything but an extreme right-winger. If they put up even a Vinroot type, I'll consider it as long as they represent the metro areas.

Mecklenberg Co:
Obama 62 McCain 37
Purdue 49 McCrory 49

Durham Co:
Obama 76 McCain 24
Purdue 71 McCrory 26

Wake Co:
Obama 57 McCain 42
Purdue 51 McCrory 45

Orange Co:
Obama 72 McCain 27
Purdue 65 McCrory 30



[ Parent ]
Something interesting about those counties you cited
The Libertarian gov. candidate over performed in those counties than Statewide. Those votes often came from Obama's total rather than McCain. Just look at the comparisons between the differences of the Obama-Perdue vote totals and the McCrory-McCain vote totals.
In Durham, Perdue got 5% less than Obama, while McCrory got just 2% more than McCain.  In Wake, Perdue got 6% less than Obama while McCrory only got 3% more than McCain. In Orange, Perdue got just 7% less than Obama while McCrory got 3% more than McCain.
Note: I didn't include Mecklenburg because McCrory was mayor of Charlotte.

[ Parent ]
Yes and no
Those who are libertarian went slightly greater than 50% for Obama nationally (according to a couple polls).  


[ Parent ]
Here's an old one that I found
from Rasmussen, so take with a grain of salt.  But I recall reading a couple others too that seemed to confirm this.

Libertarian voters make up 4% of the nation's likely voters and they favor Barack Obama over John McCain by a 53% to 38% margin. Three percent (3%) would vote for some other candidate and 5% are not sure. These results, from an analysis of 15,000 Likely Voter interviews conducted by Rasmussen Reports, challenges the conventional wisdom which assumes that strong support for a Libertarian candidate would hurt John McCain.

http://www.rasmussenreports.co...


[ Parent ]
Oh, I get what you're saying
All I meant was that plenty of people in those metro areas who otherwise would have voted for a Democrat couldn't bring themselves to vote for Perdue and instead voted for the Libertarian (who frequently called himself the one true liberal in the race).

[ Parent ]
This is the big thing
And there were a lot of other people who vote for Democrats on the state level but won't vote for a Democrat (particularly a black Democrat) for Pres.

Looking at 2000 and 2004 results, this difference is more than 10%.  Obama's performance in North Carolina was quite impressive, given that he performed horrendously among white rural voters.

The other big thing is that Obama brought out a significant number of new voters that voted straight Dem downballot, but wouldn't voted if Obama didn't make a play at North Carolina.  The changing of the electorate in this fashion is what saved Dems like Purdue.

It is quite simplistic and blatantly wrong to state that since Purdue outperformed Obama, Obama didn't have any coattails.      


[ Parent ]
You're Right
About Obama bringing out new voters. I'm not sure what you mean by the difference being 10%-the difference in what?

[ Parent ]
10% being the difference between
the performance of statewide Democratic candidates and national Presidential candidates.  That is, one can expect that a statewide Democratic candidate to perform 10% better (spread) than the Dem Presidential candidate in NC.

[ Parent ]
Alright
Late night has messed with my brain I suppose. And that 10% is no surprise, given that since 1900, Republicans have controlled the governor's mansion for just 12 years. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/L...

[ Parent ]
And where does 10% come from
Where is the data that supports that assertion?

[ Parent ]
It's actually more
If I understand him correctly. By spread, I took him to mean the difference between the gubernatorial (I used this as the statewide office since it is the only one the DailyKos scoreboard has) and presidential results for 2000 and 2004.
In 2000- Bush 56%, Gore 43% and Easley (D) 52%, Vinroot (R) 46% for a net difference of 19%. (Rprezmargin=13, Rgovmargin=-6, Rprezmargin-Rgovmargin=19%)
In 2004- Bush 56%, Kerry 44% and Easley (D) 56%, Ballantine (R) 43% for a net difference of 25%. (Rprezmargin=12, Rgovmargin=-13, Rprezmargin-Rgovmargin=25%)
Sorry if that's convoluted.

[ Parent ]
I think you're double counting a mixed comparison
First, comparing federal and state offices is comparing apples and oranges.

So the more valid comparison would be federal to federal office, e.g. Presidential and Senate candidates.

The most recent comparison of such is Obama/McCain v. Hagen/Dole

Thus, based on vote shares [ ( Hagen - Obama ) + ( McCain - Dole ) ] / 2 = about 4%.  


[ Parent ]
Hmm
I thought what he was talking about was that Democrats typically perform about 10% better in statewide, non-federal races than the presidential race. I could be wrong though.

[ Parent ]
And I'm saying that's apples to oranges
issues in state races often - I suggest usually - vary from issues in federal races.

[ Parent ]
I think that's the point
It's describing how poorly Democratic candidates have in the past performed in NC federal races.

[ Parent ]
So why the comparison between the Gov and Pres race? n/t


[ Parent ]
Because that's the only statewide race on the dKos scoreboard
n/t

[ Parent ]
Marsden is a carpet bagger
He changed his residency to the home of one of his campaign consultants to be able to run in this district according to Not Larry Sabato
http://notlarrysabato.typepad....

[ Parent ]
MN SEN District 26 special
I have posted about this race a couple times but now the field is set and the Republican's have nominated a real loser, Mike Parry. Today Parry was caught scrubbing his twitter page of gems like this

read the exclusive on Mr O in Newsweek. He is a Power Hungry Arrogant Black Man

To bad for Mr Parry someone has already taken a screenshot.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/c...

Parry is running on the wingnut platform of God (for), Guns (for), and Gays (against).

The Dems have nominated Physics Prof Jason Engbrecht. More info on Jason here

http://www.jason4senate.org/in...

There is also a legit Independence Party candidate so this will be a three way race.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan


Is Kath out?
Im glad, we need state house seats over senate in case we need to use veto proof if a GOPer wins.  Ugh, Im optimistic and really cant say any of the crew doing well, it's time.  True blue Minnesotans have had 20 years without a DFL president, we came extremely close til last week implosion, but I feel like we've got it this time.


[ Parent ]
Kath is out
Kath decided not to run. To bad IMO because he would have been the strongest candidate.

I have never been a big believer in the idea that a strong candidate should not look to move up just because it might be tough to hold their current seat. With rare exceptions, like control of chamber being at stake, I have no problem with anyone trying for a bigger job.  

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan


[ Parent ]
What's the background on this seat?
Where in MN is it? Which party held it previously? What were the Obama-McCain numbers?

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

[ Parent ]
Southern Minnesota
The District includes all of Steele County and parts of Rice and Waseca counties. The District leans Rep, it went McCain 50-47 and Coleman 43-36-21. This area of the state has been represented by Republicans in the state senate for decades. There is hope though as both state House seats in the district are held by Dems (In Minnesota senate districts are divided into 2 house districts). The Independence Party is also particulary strong in this area and they have a strong candidate in Roy Srp, the mayor of Waseca.  

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

[ Parent ]
Thanks!


28, Unenrolled, MA-08

[ Parent ]
Clarification to your post
The wording in your post implies that Hayworth had a fundraiser in DC with Arpaio. Yes, JD Hayworth was in DC, and yes, he raised more than $100k from a recent fundraiser headlined by Arpaio. But the two are separate. The fundraiser was in Phoenix before his trip to DC.


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