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CA-Gov: Rasmussen Sees Brown, Whitman Tie

by: Crisitunity

Thu Nov 19, 2009 at 1:11 PM EST


Rasmussen (11/17, likely voters, 9/24 in parentheses):

Jerry Brown (D): 41 (44)
Meg Whitman (R): 41 (35)
Some other: 3 (3)
Not sure: 14 (18)

Jerry Brown (D): 42 (44)
Tom Campbell (R): 33 (34)
Some other: 6 (6)
Not sure: 19 (16)

Jerry Brown (R): 43 (45)
Steve Poizner (R): 32 (32)
Some other: 7 (5)
Not sure: 18 (18)
(MoE: ±5.5%)

This poll's a little suprising, since it's the first poll to find a very close race between Democratic AG Jerry Brown and Republican ex-eBay CEO Meg Whitman (the closest she had come in any previous poll was 6 points, actually an R2K poll from August). It's also the first poll to find some wide differentiation in general election performance between Whitman and her other two opponents, as Rasmussen finds 9 and 11-point leads for Brown over ex-Rep. Tom Campbell and Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner. Compare that with September's Field Poll... or just with the trendlines from the previous Rasmussen poll.

Although Californians are understood to be in a surly mood these days, all the candidates clock in with positive favorables: Brown is at 48/41, Whitman is at 47/27, Campbell is at 40/20, and Poizner is at 36/26. I'm a little surprised at this level of name-rec for the Republicans, considering how little-known they have tended to be in other polls. Another tidbit that points to the effect of Rasmussen's likely voter screen: Barack Obama has a 55/43 approval -- a good number, to be sure, but most pollsters have had Obama in the low-to-mid 60s in California, as it usually tends to be one of his best states for approval ratings (in fact, given California's size, it's probably single-handedly responsible for keeping Obama's nationwide approvals in the mid-50s).

RaceTracker Wiki: CA-Gov

Crisitunity :: CA-Gov: Rasmussen Sees Brown, Whitman Tie
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What the F*ck
There is no way this poll is accurate.  I'm calling BS on this poll and Rasmussen all together.

I live in California and the sentiment here is that both Republicans and Democrats are angry at the incompetence that AHNULD has shown recently when it has come to the budget.  There is no way a republican will win the 2010 Governorship, there is no God damn way.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)


I can see a Reublican winning, but this poll is shit
No way.  There is no way Whitman is known to more than half the people.

Outlier.  Move on.


[ Parent ]
Nothing Like Ras Skullduggery
to start the morning.  Seriously, I call bullshit on the sample.  It also has Arnie's approval ratings at almost 30%, which is actually higher than what a lot of polls have recently shown - and may explain why everyone has a high approval rating across the board, even the never-elected Whitman.  It's a bit odd though that only 26% of Californians don't know or don't have an opinion of her, which is much lower than Poizner or Campbell (clocking in at 38%), both of whom have been elected to office and have campaigned before - plus, she seems to have suffered no fallout from her "I vote when I feel like it" scandal, which from what I gathered on the ground pissed off a lot of voters.  There's also no indication on the geographic breakdown either, which would have a huge impact for a state as large as CA.  Something tells me this is an assist to Whitman from Rasmussen, as it gives her a poll to back up her claim that she's the most able to beat Brown.  Most recent polls have shown that not to be the case, which coincided with a lot of undecided GOPers moving to the Campbell camp.

I can see it being accurate
But that's because I live in the Bay Area and I've been hearing Meg Whitman's ads on the radio nonstop for the past few days.  Her ads are full of generic 'Sacramento sucks, let's cut spending' stuff that Schwarzenegger used to first become popular, and I haven't seen any real campaign to let voters know she's a Republican.  My guess is that they won't stay tied for very long once Jerry Brown starts campaigning in earnest.

eMeg is all over the radio downstate too
   Her ads are in heavy rotation on KNX 1070 L.A. news radio.

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28

[ Parent ]
She has tons of money to turn
but so did Terry McAuliffe and look where that got him.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
I had forgotten all about McAuliffe
I was dead sure Deeds was our best candidate.  I'll bet even McAweful could have given McDonnell a closer race.

[ Parent ]
I think basically everyone was
and then Deeds laid a goose egg.  But the signs were there all along, it seemed like the Democrats forgot how Tim Kaine and Obama won Virginia.

[ Parent ]
Brown will clean clock
Any republican who runs will get wiped out by double digits.

Most likely Brown will win
   but we can't take it for granted. Boxer will win for sure; people are more inclined to vote for the "wrong" party for state rather than federal offices. Examples include the GOP Governors of VT, HI, and CA and the Democratic Govs of WY, TN and OK.

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28

[ Parent ]
I can't wait
to see Brown and Boxer beat Obama's percentage!

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


Maybe if Chuck DeVore's the GOP-Sen nominee
I actually think Whitman and Campbell have the capability to keep Brown on his toes. In all likelihood, Brown will win this thing, but unless a teabagger jumps into this thing, he'll be running against a moderate Republican and won't match Obama's margin. And, I imagine that Republican will be Whitman.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
You have an (R) next to Brown's name
in the matchup against Poizner.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

I know California has changed a lot in the last three decades...
...but Republicans have controlled the California Governorship for all but 5 of the last 28 years.  So can you really dismiss the chances, especially in an unfriendly year and against a well funded opponent, that they'll get 4 more?

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

I agree to some extent...
...but on the other hand, the Dems haven't recently mounted (to my recollection) a Gubernatorial candidate as well-known and strong as Jerry Brown.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Past history isn't always a good predictor of the future
If it was we would still expect the southeast to elect democratic Governors and Senators.  A realignment happened and California is no longer favorable to republicans even in a pro-GOP year.

[ Parent ]
Yep.
That is why I stand by my assertion that Brown will win this thing. California has just become too Democratic to elect even a moderate Republican barring unusual circumstances. (Had Riordan beaten Davis in 2002, the whole calculus would have changed dramatically.) So far this decade we have had a grand total of 3 Republicans holding statewide office: Arnold, who won under unusual circumstances as everyone knows, Bruce McPherson, who was not elected, but appointed to Secretary of State by Arnold, and Poizner, who was also elected under unusual circumstances; in a regular election but against a very-damaged-goods opponent. So far I see nothing indicating 2010 will be "unusual circumstances". Of course a lot can change in a year, but as of now I see nothing "unusual". The 90s were pretty much the last hurrah for Republican competitiveness in California.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
Reagan's Lt. Gov endorses Whitman

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