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November 3, 2009....Election Night!

by: Tarheeman1993

Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 3:34 PM EDT


In less than 2 weeks, we will determine the winner of three important elections (NJ-Gov, VA-Gov, NY-23).  At one time there was some chatter from the right that November 3rd would be a referendum on the Democrats.  For argument's sake, I'll agree with the conservatives and then try to analyze the potential results of these three races.  First, let's look at the three races:

NJ-Gov  If there was ever a "come from ahead" loss staring at a Republican candidate in 2009, Chris Christie is the first man that comes to mind.  Christie made the mistake of touting a "reformer" image, but his strategy has backfired.  The Corzine campaign has identified flaws in this strategy by refuting it effectively.  Christie should have won this race going away, but Christie's ethical issues have been the focal point as opposed to Corzine's tenure as governor.  Chris Daggett's popularity is the wild card.  At this point I think this race will go to Corzine due to the recent trends in the polls.  Daggett is a wild card, but Corzine should prevail by the skin of his teeth.  

VA-Gov  Creigh Deeds hasn't caught on fire with the Virginia electorate.  McDonnell has the momentum, and I don't see how Deeds will pull it off in less than 2 weeks.  I hope I'm wrong.  It has been noted that Deeds is a fast finisher, so I'm not totally writing this race off yet.

NY-23 Bill Owens might become the first Democrat to represent this district in many years.  DeDe Scozzafava is out of money and might actually finish 3rd in this race.  Doug Hoffman is the Conservative Party's dog in this race, and he's attacking both candidates from the right.  Owens has some momentum, Hoffman has some momentum (if not even more than Owens), and DeDe is floundering.  This race leans towards Owens at this time.

If the Democrats win 2 of the 3 races, would it be considered a good night for the Democratic party?  If the Republicans only pick 1 of these races, how will they spin the results in their favor?  
Tarheeman1993 :: November 3, 2009....Election Night!
Poll
If the Dems win 2 out of 3, will it be Nov. 3rd be a good night?
Yes
Yes!! I'd be happy with only 1 out of 3
No. Anything less than 3 out of 3 is unacceptable

Results

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November 3, 2009....Election Night! | 40 comments
Deeds is toast
The other two are tossups. Of course, I'm also watching a number of referenda (about as important IMO).  
Anybody heard anything
about CA-10?  Last I saw was that internal poll released by Harmer.  I thought Garamendi might release his internal in response, but instead he just scoffed at Harmer's poll.  Seems like this should be safe D, but who knows?
[ Parent ]
I think we would have heard
Rothenberg and Cook get to see internals.
[ Parent ]
Democratic Lt. Gov during an unpopular Rep. Gov's reign.
In a safe D district?  I'm not worried one bit.  
[ Parent ]
I completely forgot CA-10
I think Garamendi will win this race fairly easily, but just like you said, who knows!

If we did lose this race, the GOP would be dancing and touting this election result on a National level as a referendum on Obama.  However, I'm not too worried about it at this time.

[ Parent ]
And how could you forget
Charlotte Mayor?
[ Parent ]
Charlotte Mayor
In the last 30 years, only one Charlotte mayor has been worth a darn, and that was Harvey Gantt.  Charlotte may be a Democratic city, but for some reason they like Republicans a lot for mayor.  

If it makes you feel better, I think Charlotte will have the first Democratic mayor since Harvey Gant was defeated back in the 1980's.

[ Parent ]
Hope so
The innards of the one poll we had were encouraging.
[ Parent ]
The spin to wins for Corzine and Owens
Will be third parties. But I really don't think we can take any accurate predictive reading for next year whatever happens this. That being said it should be an exciting night. I have my Pringles ready already!
2-for-3 = a great night
Anything less, however, and I think it's hard to argue it's not a win for the GOP.

I suspect the 5 likeliest scenarios, with the most likely on top, are...

1. McDonnell/Corzine/Owens
2. McDonnell/Christie/Owens
3. McDonnell/Corzine/Hoffman
4. McDonnell/Christie/Hoffman
5. Deeds/Corzine/Owens

I agree with your assessment
I think Hoffman will finish 2nd to Owens in NY-23.  If Hoffman pulls it off and wins, I'll have to hide out in my house for awhile...
[ Parent ]
Agree with your rankings in likelihood...
I disagree with one thing, I think 2-3 is a wash.  

It was noted that we have Garamendi being elected (easy thing to pat ourselves on the back for) and the gay marriage fight in Maine, and Charlette mayor race to watch too.  So the night could be harder to interpret beyond that.  

[ Parent ]
I agree up to #5
I do think it's FAR more likely Scozzafava pulls it off than Deeds somehow pulls a comeback.
[ Parent ]
LeftistAddiction, your argument is like saying...
...Howard is more likely to make the Final Four next March than New Jersey Tech (yes NJ Tech plays Division I ball now!).

Deeds and DeDe share 4 of the same letters and the same fate on election night:  crushing embarrassment.

My wife caught me intellectually masturbating looking at dirty polls on Swing State Project.

[ Parent ]
The sad thing is...
... that both of them are arguably the most qualified and best fitted politically for the offices they are seeking.

That's what a crap campaign will do, I guess.

[ Parent ]
GA-HD-141 Special Election
It's a swingy district formerly held by a Democrat.  I'm liking what I'm seeing from our guy: http://www.darrellblack.com/is...

I will work with the Democrats in congress and the governor to ensure that all Georgians can have access to affordable health care and that insurance companies will not be able to deny you for having pre-existing conditions.

I'm committed to improving the economy and protecting the environment. Bringing green jobs to Milledgeville is an important step in not only improving the economy in the short-run, but also ensuring that our children and grandchildren have access to the natural resources that we enjoy in our region.
(That whole thing deserves bolding.

Someone needs to work long and hard to put together state, business, and local efforts, and history proves it is the Democratic Party that does this best.


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
ny 23
http://www.thealbanyproject.co...

give a map of the district specifying the last time eavch voted democratc

Cross posted on Swing State, but I could not locate it.

heres the map:

http://i563.photobucket.com/al...

Joe Cooper

[ Parent ]
Actually Owens would be the first
Democrat some areas of the district since the creation of the Republican party in the 1950s.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
Ooops!
1850s

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Election night prediction
VA
57% McDonnell
43% Deeds
NJ
44% Corzine
41% Christie
14% Daggett
1% Other
NY-23
40% Owens
31% Hoffman
29% Scozzafava
Charlotte Mayor
52% Foxx
48% Lassiter
Those are all about where I'd pick them
I think that with NJ, much of it depends on the level of Daggett's support.  Corzine probably gets around 43-45% regardless.  If Daggett gets in the mid-teens, Corzine probably wins, but if his support falls off into the high single digits, we're probably looking at Governor Christie.
[ Parent ]
PPP wrote on twitter
that they believe Daggett will get at least 10% on election night.
[ Parent ]
Daggett @ 10%?
That would easily mean a Christie win. I firmly believe that Corzine needs him to garner at least 13% of the vote to pull this off.
[ Parent ]
"at least 10%" meaning that being a worst case scenario
don't worry. Corzine could win with 45% if Daggett got 10%.
[ Parent ]
Daggett's looking at a much heftier share than that...
...if the latest poll from Rutgers-Eagleton is anywhere near accurate.

Corzine 39%
Christie 36%
Daggett 20%

http://www.nj.com/hudson/index...

[ Parent ]
20% for Daggett wouldn't surprise me
If I were living in New Jersey, I might very well vote for him, too. I think Corzine has been a lousy governor, and Christie is much worse. Daggett doesn't seem to have anything major wrong with him. I think the balancing test I'd have to make if I lived in NJ would be, how important is it to keep Christie out, and does that necessitate voting for Corzine.
[ Parent ]
Clearly yes
In any event, Corzine is substantively much better. He's the one running on a liberal Democratic platform--unapologetically.  
[ Parent ]
More than 20% wouldn't surprise me
Throughout the polling of this race, Daggett is the only candidate whose support has been growing.

I don't think he can win (although not entirely impossible), but in a situation where the electorate doesn't particularly like either major party candidate, an independent with a sense of momentum doesn't seem as likely to see his vote collapse (as often happens to other third party candidates).

My gut says that Corzine will win with the base Dem vote in the low to mid 40%s, Christie will be just under 40%, and Daggett will end up close to 20%.

But if the impression develops in the final days that Daggett is somehow viable, all bets are off -- he could drain votes from both Christie and Corzine, and who knows what might happen?

[ Parent ]
I don't want to call this too soon
But it looks like we're going to have a Phillies/Yankees World Series in the context of a hot NJ election. The state gets split right down the middle, but there are more Yankees fans that Phillies fans in the state.

(Go Phillies!)

The election would be between games 5 and 6
assuming no rainouts, of course.
[ Parent ]
Phillies?
You are killing me!  Go Yankees!!!
[ Parent ]
booooooo!

[ Parent ]
Go Phillies (by default)
Because I absolutely hate the Yankees and everything they stand for.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Oh come on now
It's only a game...it's not like it's life or death.  

Andgarden, I like your comment!  I got a big charge out of it.  Believe me, being a Yanks fan I've heard the boos from many people.

[ Parent ]
For me it's just hometeamism
Outside of the World Series, I really couldn't give a damn. I'm considering picking up a Phillies hat to wear here in NYC.
[ Parent ]
If the Yankees win, God kills a kitten.


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Even worse, if the Yankees win
God sends a harnessed kitten down a zipline, and pipes the sound the kitten makes to Times Square...
[ Parent ]
Yankees!
 I know they are losing the game but they can still pull it off. I like the Yankees because my entire family is from New York, therefore it is like a home team. I know this is not a baseball website but here is why the Yankees spend so much money on their team: they make no profit because they spend all their profits on their team. They give back to their team while other teams (like the SF Giants) put the money in their pockets instead of using their profits to get the best players they can find. If they got the better players, they would win more games and therefore attract more fans. The Yankees are good not because they cheat, they give back to their team.

For more election analysis, visit frogandturtle.blogspot.com
[ Parent ]
Here she is, boys...
Sarah Palin endorses Doug Hoffman
http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-...
Taegan makes an interesting point
"Palin guarantees NY-23 will be race post-election analysts focus on to determine the mood of the electorate..."

The gift that keeps giving!

November 3, 2009....Election Night! | 40 comments

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