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SSP Daily Digest: 8/26

by: Crisitunity

Wed Aug 26, 2009 at 2:24 PM EDT


FL-Sen: Ileana Ros-Lehtinen says she won't endorse in the GOP Senate primary or in the general election, out of deference to Kendrick Meek. Says IRL: "Kendrick was a gentleman and I'm a lady back to him," because he didn't lift a finger to help Annette Taddeo last year, "despite all the nasty bloggers egging him on." Next time, we'll just have to egg harder. (D)

Meanwhile, in the contest purely in Charlie Crist's mind over who to appoint to replace Mel Martinez, Crist will reportedly name someone by week's end from his not-so-short list of eight or so names.

OR-Sen: John Frohnmayer, the former head of the National Endowment for the Arts under Bush I, was reportedly considering a bid for the Senate against Ron Wyden, but has now decided against it. (You may remember Frohnmayer had tried running as an Indie in the 2006 Smith/Merkley Senate race, but decided against that too.) Interestingly, the story makes it completely unclear whether he was planning to run as a Democrat or an Independent (probably not as a Republican, despite that he's from one of the state's brand-name GOP families, considering that the once-dominant moderates have been routed from the state party), but it sounded like he'd be going after the usually-liberal Wyden from the left, as he'd been reaching out to Democratic activists upset over Wyden's foot-dragging on health care reform. No GOPer has stepped forward to take on Wyden from the right.

NJ-Gov: One more wheel popped off the suddenly overloaded Chris Christie bus: the woman who allegedly received the undisclosed loan from Christie while working for him has resigned. Michele Brown was the acting first assistant U.S. Attorney for New Jersey, but she quit yesterday, saying she didn't want to be a distraction for the campaign.

NY-Gov: Politico's Alex Isenstadt offers a rebuttal to the NYT's speculations that Rudy Giuliani is prepping for a gubernatorial run. Close associates say that while he's not saying no, he isn't fundraising either, and that his bids for attention may have more to do with paying down campaign debts from his epic presidential fail.

SC-Gov: Two Republican state Reps, Nathan Ballentine (known as a Mark Sanford ally) and Gerry Simrill met privately with Sanford to let him know that if he doesn't step down, the GOP-held legislature will impeach him. (Sanford told them he's staying.) Also, Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer publicly called for Sanford to resign today (and, by the way, give him his job). Bauer said he'd drop his 2010 gubernatorial bid if he were to become governor, though.

TX-Gov: It looks like there'll be an alternative to Bush-backer Tom Schieffer and weirdo self-promoter Kinky Friedman in the Democratic primary after all: Hank Gilbert, a cattle rancher who lost the 2006 Agriculture Commissioner race (although he did do the best of any Dem statewide candidate that year), says he'll run. Burnt Orange Report sounds very pleased. Meanwhile, Kay Bailey Hutchison faced down a truckload of pigs brought to one of her rallies by snout-wearing pro-Rick Perry, anti-pork activists. KBH is also looking to sell her mansion in McLean, Virginia, a tea leaf that a) she's serious about bailing out of the Senate and b) she needs money.

WI-Gov: There's already a Republican internal poll from the Scott Walker camp done by the Tarrance Group, reflecting the new post-Jim Doyle configuration of the Wisconsin governor's race. As one might expect from a Walker poll, he leads all comers, although the Milwaukee Co. Exec barely beats Milwaukee mayor and ex-Rep. Tom Barrett, 44-43. Walker posts bigger numbers over Lt. Gov. Barbara Lawton, 48-40 and Rep. Ron Kind, 49-39, and an even-bigger number against GOP primary rival ex-Rep. Mark Neumann, 57-21. Barrett leads a Dem primary over Lawton and Kind, 39-25-19 (only Lawton has committed to the race so far, though).

NYC-Mayor: The mayor's race in New York seems to be in a holding pattern, with I/R incumbent Michael Bloomberg beating Democratic Comptroller William Thompson, 50-35, not much change from last month's 47-37 spread. Thompson leads city councilor Tony Avella 45-10 in the primary. Further down the ballot, it looks like Air America head Mark Green is poised for a comeback as Public Advocate (a job he held 1994-2001), with 38% in a 4-way Dem primary field.

Ads: The DNC has launched a series of radio ads providing cover for 13 potentially vulnerable Dems, regarding their earlier stimulus and SCHIP votes: Berry, Himes, Donnelly, Kissell, Teague, Rodriguez, Perriello, Ross, Hill, Etheridge, Brad Miller, Pat Murphy, and Inslee. (OK, those last four don't seem vulnerable at all, but whatever.) Also, a coalition of MoveOn, Americans United for Change, the Sierra Club, and the League of Conservation Voters launched TV spots against 5 Republicans over cap-and-trade: McCotter, Rehberg, Blunt, Wolf, and Cantor... and print ads against 2 Dems who also were 'no' votes: Jason Altmire in the Pittsburgh suburbs and Ann Kirkpatrick in rural Arizona.

Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 8/26
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WI-GOV
If this is a 3 person or more race, Barrett will win. Milwaukee, proper, makes up about 20% of the typical Dem electorate and when you account for the Milwaukee suburbs its another around 15% and he's going to absolutely clean up in this area.  

Plus
Im sure the recent stories about helping save the lady under attack sure has raised both his profile, and opinion in voters minds of Tom Barrett.

A cat can have kittens in an oven but that doesn't make them biscuits.

[ Parent ]
Its gotten him some nice
Pub, but that stuff is all temporary.  

[ Parent ]
True
but he was already very popular in Milwaukee. He won reelection with 79% of the vote, the most of any mayoral candidate in 40 years.

Since he's still in the hospital, has anyone in his staff intimated his intention to run or not?

I think he stands a much better shot this time of winning the primary. Firstly, thanks to his 2002 run, he has experience with running statewide. Two, being mayor of Milwaukee is a higher profile job than being one of its congressmen (back when Milwaukee had 2 districts), and it shows some executive experience.


[ Parent ]
The biggest difference
May be his opponent. Doyle was a 2-term AG with a political base in Madison, and a famous Democratic family. IMO in WI AG is much more high profile than LG and Lawton doesn't have the political base Doyle did.

[ Parent ]
Exactly
Doyle had been DA in Dane County for 6 years before he was elected AG. His base there + his statewide exposure helped him win.

Lawton, on the other hand, has held no elected office other than LG and comes from Green Bay.

If Barrett runs, the primary is his for the taking.  


[ Parent ]
Barrett should be our candidate in Wisconsin
He wanted to win the race back in 2002 but was beaten in the primary by Doyle.  

[ Parent ]
If he runs
I'm guessing he'll win. I doubt Kind will get in if Barrett wins because I don't think he think he'd win a 3-way and will keep his powder dry for the likely open 2012 senate seat.

If its Barrett vs Lawton, he'll win. He's got a stronger base of support and while she may have high name ID, she doesn't have his base of support. And despite the Capital Times referring to her as the most active LG in state history, I think there's definitely the perception that she hasn't done anything as LG.


[ Parent ]
Scott Walker
who exactly is Scott Walker, he doesnt have a statewide position from what I see.

[ Parent ]
Milwaukee county executive.


20, male, independent, WI-07.

[ Parent ]
Ros-Lehtinen
Am I the only one that thought that was snark?

MT-AL: Someone's going after Rehberg?
Now that's interesting.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

But on cap-n-trade? Wrong call.
Rehberg needs to be attacked on health care, not climate change.  Montana has one insurance company controlling like 93% of the market, and Rehberg, like all the other Republicans, has no real plan to do anything about it.  Montana's ancient populist roots could be incited about that.

But climate change?  Tough sell.

28, gay guy, Democrat, CA-08


[ Parent ]
67 in the senate
I discussed this in the AR thread but had to step away from the computer so I'd like to make an argument.  Someone said that we didn't need Lincoln and I responded by saing that if we can get to 67, which is possible if we hold our tough holds and win where we should, we could get rid of the filibuster.  Someone said that we'd never do it because it would hurt us when we were in the minority.  

My response to this is that we could do two things.  We could get rid of it and then we could also make a clause that to reinstate it you'd need 51 votes to reinstate it or something.  Sure this would anger all the republicans but if we lost an election that put us below the 51 seat threshold, we could put the filibuster back in before the new represenatives were put in place.  This would allow us to pass pretty much anything we wanted for a short time.


Um, if you had 67 votes you could just win all the cloture votes for however long you had that many seats.
So there would be no successful filibusters.  Then when you drop below 60 you're back to status quo ante, with filibusters possible again.

Why do it your way?  Is the idea to also avoid filibusters after we've dropped below 60 seats, but before we've dropped below 51?  Because if you had 67 seats you could get an entire generation's worth of legislation accomplished in one session.  The filibuster-buster wouldn't really be necessary.

28, gay guy, Democrat, CA-08


[ Parent ]
Yeah
The idea is that we need to stop EVERY SINGLE piece of legislation from having to get battered in reconciliation because we don't have 60 reliable votes. And for the time that we have between 51 and 60, as well.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

[ Parent ]
Any majority
has, by precedent, the right to change the rules at the start of a session. IMO, really they have that right at any time.

The Senate could be made much more majoritarian if a majority had the will.


[ Parent ]
Not to be picky
If you're talking about votes, Gilbert was third in terms of statewide Democrats.  He was beaten out by a state supreme court candidate and a court of criminal appeals candidate.  

New Chris Christie Scandal
In 2005, New Jersey gubernatorial candidate Chris Christie (R) was issued traffic tickets for speeding, driving an unregistered vehicle and driving without insurance but was allowed to drive the vehicle home, reports Millennium Radio.

The three tickets had the words "no deal" written on them. Christie later pleaded guilty, paid a large fine and signed an affidavit.

A spokeswoman for Christie acknowledged that "the fact that Christie was U.S. Attorney did come up."  


Sort of hard to imagine
how a situation like that arises.  

[ Parent ]
This gets stranger
"A tow truck showed up at the scene but Christie was allowed to drive the vehicle with his wife, kids and Michelle Brown back home according to his spokesperson."

What on earth is the whole story hear?


[ Parent ]
Michelle Brown? with Christie's wife and children?
And 2 years later she somehow gets a $46K loan from him?
Safe to say there's more to come.

TPM's reporting: http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo...


[ Parent ]
kim guadagno
does anyone know anything about her because she seems like the kind of person who could be holding back damaging secrets also, we need to make sure that Christie doesn't win, the last thing New Jersey needs right now is Chris Christie as a governor.

[ Parent ]
Guadagno
Quite honestly, Guadagno seems to be pretty clean. She's only in her first political office but has a pretty respectable resume. Although her positions and actions regarding immigration are clearly her most contentious feature, she's not a sleazebag like Christie. To be honest, I doubt the running mates will be a big factor in this year's election.  In all fairness, it should be a referendum on Corzine's record, in which case he would lose in a big way. But it's not -- it's about manufactured scandals on both sides of the aisle, disgustingly. Who cares if Christie had a traffic ticket, or screwed up on his taxes? Unless there's more to the story than that, I certainly don't. Chris Daggett is the only candidate who's running an issue-oriented campaign. Corzine can't do that if he wants to win, of course, and Christie won't do that because he just wants to pick up the anti-Corzine vote without alienating anyone. What an ugly mess.

[ Parent ]
Scandals
Christie's big scandal is not being pushed.  He agreed to prosecute only Democrats to keep his job and he did it with a vengeance.  He also focussed heavily on minority Democrats.  To add insult to injury Mr. Clean left a trail of no-bid contracts and influence peddling (for his brother) and left the Wall Street con men alone.

Christie is a crook and Corzine is tone deaf and somewhat inept.  Christie's record on the Morris County Board of Freeholders shows he can't get along with others and would also be a bad governor.

The sleaze and sanctimoniousness are tie-breakers.  I intend to hold my nose and vote for Corzine even though he's been a bad Governor.


[ Parent ]
I agree with that one
He was truly sleazy and inappropriately political as U.S. Attorney. For that reason, I could never vote for Christie. That said, Corzine can't really attack Christie for going after mainly corrupt Democrats because, well, all those Democrats were disgustingly corrupt. Corzine can't afford to be tied to them in any way.

The bottom line is that both are awful candidates and that neither would be good governors over the course of the next four years.  I certainly can't with good conscience vote Corzine in for four more years. That's why I'm backing Daggett. But that's just me.


[ Parent ]
Dagget
Like NJ centrist said, theres always Daggett. For me, when I don't like either major party candidates, and there is a viable independent, I can justify voting for a third-party.  

[ Parent ]
Same here.
For example, I endorsed Rich Whitney in the 2006 IL-Gov race.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
I guess we now know
Why people in the know were never in a state of blind panic over Corzine - they knew Christie had plenty of skeletons to drop when the time was right.

[ Parent ]
Meek
This is an example of why you shouldn't screw over your party.  How exactly does it help Meek that Ileana isn't going to campaign against him?  Maybe it helps him a little bit, but it's nothing compared to the world of hurt his not standing up for Taddeo will cause him among the grassroots.  Screwing over your party isn't just unethical; it's bad politics.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

Missouri State Sen. Jeff Smith resigns, pleads guilty of conspiracy
http://www.stltoday.com/stltod...

Anyone see the documentary "Can Mr. Smith Get to Washington Anymore?" The answer to that question is now "no" in more ways than one.


Damn!!
Are these safe seats?

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

[ Parent ]
Yeah, they're St. Louis-area seats
Smith was unopposed in 2006, and Brown won 69-31 in 2008.

Not that it could get much worse for the Dems in the Missouri Senate -- with Smith's resignation, they're currently down 23-10.


[ Parent ]
But if they're 3rd CD
How Democratic are they?  Not as much as St. Louis City.  Are they at least from the more heavily Dem part of the 3rd?

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

[ Parent ]
"Can Mr. Smith Get to Washington Anymore?" was a pretty good
documentary covering Smith's upstart primary campaign (though it was ultimately unsuccessful).

Man, his guilty pleas and resignation yesterday and the events leading up to them would sure make a downbeat sequel if the filmmakers ever did one.


[ Parent ]
Wasn't he a big netroots hero when he ran for Congress? - eom


[ Parent ]
Yeah
He was DFA-endorsed. I think maybe he was even the first DFA-endorsed candidate that cycle.

[ Parent ]
That's really too bad
politics ain't beanbag, I guess.

[ Parent ]
KBH's House
Photo tour:

http://slideshow.mris.com/slid...

Nice digs!

She should keep it, though. After she loses the Governor's race she can live there when she begins her new career as a lobbyist.


Looks like they haven't redecorated in 30 years
I get an early-80s nouveau riche vibe from the place.

[ Parent ]
Well, the place was built in '84
It's probably all the original stuff.

[ Parent ]
My only comment
is that she apparently has horrible taste in seating arrangements.  

[ Parent ]
I hope KBH beats the hell out of Perry
I, of little faith, believes that a Republican will win the Texas Governor's race in 2010.  KBH is much more sane than Rick Perry.  Although she has gone to the right recently, she would be a big improvement over Perry.

At the same time, I think Texas will be more in play for the Dems in about 8-10 years.  The electorate of Texas is changing in our favor.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04


[ Parent ]
GA-Gov, GA-09
With Insurance Commissioner and 2010 Republican Gubernatorial candidate John Oxendine having recently gotten in trouble for his donations from the insurance industry, fellow gubernatorial candidate, U.S. Rep. Nathan Deal has joined in the fun.

http://www.ajc.com/news/deal-a...

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.


Jay Inslee Ad buy
The reason why the DNC is buying ads for Jay Inslee is that he is preparing to run for Governor in Washington State in 2012. They just want to start laying some ground work now.


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