I'll throw a big wildcard out there: Attorney General Tom Miller......

I knew Tom Miller, he actually had been a mentor to me many years ago, in the 90s, in my youth.  Among our conversations he revealed to me as a youngster himself he always wanted to be a Congressman or Senator, but that as an adult he realized he much more enjoyed state office.  As a 12-year incumbent A.G. he ran for Governor and lost in a heated Democratic primary in 1990 due to his having been pro-life at the time (he switched and became publicly pro-choice 4 years later), and he came back and regained the A.G. office in 1994.  He's been reelected 3 more times since then, the last time UNOPPOSED.  Tom told me way back when he truly LOVED being Attorney General, finding it tremendously rewarding, and he's really A.G. for life if he wants it as no one will ever defeat him.

I haven't been in touch with Tom in years, but I can picture a scenario where maybe, just maybe, he decides in the twilight of his career to give a big race one last shot.  Unlikely?  Yeah, very, I admit that up front.  But it goes without saying that if there really is a high-profile Democrat contemplating a challenge to Grassley, that in itself already is UNlikely.

My wife caught me intellectually masturbating looking at dirty polls on Swing State Project.

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by: DCCyclone @ Thu Aug 20, 2009 at 16:20:53 PM CDT

Intriguing......

I doubt that he'd jump in, but anything is possible.

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by: displacedyankdem @ Thu Aug 20, 2009 at 16:28:40 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Just wikied him.

He has been AG for 26 of the last 30 years.  That sure sounds like a formidable opponent.

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by: omarka @ Thu Aug 20, 2009 at 16:40:22 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

He is also 65

which is not an ideal time to start a Senate career.  It will be hard for him to make the case that Grassley is too old and his values are ancient.

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by: JSmith @ Thu Aug 20, 2009 at 18:47:41 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

You're wrong about making a winning case against Grassley......

It's true Tom Miller can't say "I'm the future, he's the past."  But that doesn't have to be the juxtaposition.  Messaging can be done around a lot of different kinds of juxtapositions.

Tom is universally popular, certainly at least as popular as Grassley, and maybe more so.

Tom has the advantage of no legislative record to attack......ever.  Attorney General was the first office he ever ran for, and the only office he's ever held.  He's got major political and managerial experience without any controversial votes or bill signings or vetoes.  He survived his abortion switch without any stink being raised, and that was 15 years ago, too long ago to be raised as an issue today.

And Tom easily should be able to raise all the money he needs.

Alas, I have to agree that I don't think he'll do it.

But as I said in my first comment in this diary, I don't think anyone high-profile is going to challenge Grassley next year, and yet supposedly someone high-profile will do so?  That just means whoever it is, IF the rumor is true, will be a big surprise.

My wife caught me intellectually masturbating looking at dirty polls on Swing State Project.

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by: DCCyclone @ Thu Aug 20, 2009 at 21:48:29 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

And here's another wildcard: Lt. Gov. Patty Judge......

In Iowa the Gov/L.G. candidates run as a ticket, the Governor's candidate picking the running mate, same as for Prez/VP nationally.  And a L.G. in Iowa usually keeps a low-profile, although Branstad was Robert Ray's A.G. before running for Governor and winning upon Ray's retirement.  But then Sally Pederson, Vilsack's L.G., was really a figurehead and never ran for anything in her own right.

But Patty Judge is unique:  she was the elected statewide Secretary of Agriculture in the not-too-distant past, 2 terms.  She also was a state Senator.  So Judge has proven independent vote-getting ability, including statewide.  And it's notable that farming is traditionally "men's work," and having a woman get elected to the top farming political job is significant even though I recall that strangely not much was made of it.

Patty Judge's one foray into national politics came when in response to Sarah Palin last year, as reported in many places including the Huffington Post.

The money quote:

Sarah knows how to field-dress a moose.  I know how to castrate a calf.  Neither of those things has anything at all to do with this election.  But since we know so much about Sarah's special skills, I wanted to make sure you knew about mine too.

I'll add one more thing:  Iowa has never elected a woman to federal office.  There have been a few lieutenant Governors, Judge was Ag Sec'y, and in the late 80s/early 90s Elaine Baxter was the first woman elected statewide in Iowa as Secretary of State.  But Baxter lost a Congressional bid in 1992 that she choked away after leading in the polls the whole way, and no other woman has come close.

My wife caught me intellectually masturbating looking at dirty polls on Swing State Project.

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by: DCCyclone @ Thu Aug 20, 2009 at 21:59:07 PM CDT

Okay, DCCyclone, you're now God (of Iowa Politics)

DCCyclone, I'm going to make you into a theoretical god in Iowa, since unlike me, you know what you're talking about. You have been given the power to pick any Senate candidate you want to take on Grassley. Who are your top 3 choices?

Bonus question: who do you pick to take on Latham in the 4th?

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by: displacedyankdem @ Thu Aug 20, 2009 at 22:08:08 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Thanks...I'm a transplanted Iowan living in Virginia......

I'm a committed Virginia Democratic activist now, but Iowa is where I was born and bred and where my mom and 2 older brothers still live, and it will always have a special place in my heart.

I know Iowa politics pretty well and have continued to follow it very closely even though I haven't lived there in 17 years.

My top 3 choices, if I could just go ahead and make them:

(1) Tom Vilsack
(2) Tom Miller
(3) Patty Judge

I put Vilsack over Miller because Vilsack has had tough races much more recently and has more experience having to run a hardball modern campaign.

As much as I love Miller, he just coasts to reelection against token opposition and, as I mentioned earlier, he was actually UNOPPOSED in 2006.  The statewide ballot still had his name on it, and he still had to have voters to get elected, but he said flat out in one interview when asked about his campaign that he wasn't really campaigning because he didn't have an opponent.

My fear with Miller is that he'd struggle to deal with a really tough race where it's go, go, go all the time, on fundraising and constant statewide and D.C. travel and stumping and having to be a media hog.  That would be a big adjustment for him at this stage of his career.

Meanwhile, Judge has chops.  She's not scared of tough races, and she knows how to win 'em.

My wife caught me intellectually masturbating looking at dirty polls on Swing State Project.

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by: DCCyclone @ Thu Aug 20, 2009 at 22:15:10 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Hold up

Desmoinesdem has been giving us the low down on politics in Iowa for a good while now and has become the authority on the subject here at SSP.  

Obviously Im not discounting DCCylcone (he's a great addition to this blog!  Love when I see new registered users and they end up staying and contributing a lot) but just want to make sure I give props where props are due.

Now I just wish ChadFL came back because we need some FL love.

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by: Andrew @ Sun Aug 23, 2009 at 23:55:51 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Iowa women

Iowa is one of two states never to have a woman Governor, US Senator or US Representative.  The other one is Mississippi.

It sure has not been for lack of trying.  Iowa Democrats nominated a woman for US Senator in 1992 (Jean Lloyd-Jones) and in the last 20 years have nominated women for the US House 11 times.  That includes Elaine Baxter in 1992 and 1994; Sheila McGuire in 1994; Donna L. Smith in 1996 and 2000; Connie McBurney in 1996; Julie Thomas in 2002; Ann Hutchinson in 2002; Joyce Schulte in 2004 and 2006; and Becky Greenwald in 2008.  Iowa Republicans, otoh, nominated a woman just once: Marianette Miller-Meeks in 2008.

Considering that in many of those years Iowa Dems only had two or three Republican incumbents to run against, the list is pretty impressive (yes it was four in 2006).  

Desmoinesdem says that gender really is not an issue in Iowa.

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by: David Kowalski @ Thu Aug 20, 2009 at 23:52:45 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Several things in response, Kowalski......

First, I agree with desmoinesdem that gender is not an issue in Iowa.  I wasn't suggesting otherwise, although in hindsight I can see how my comment could have been construed that way.  What I was actually thinking as I typed was that Judge getting elected to Senate would be an important "first" to serve as a campaign motivator for Democratic activists and some otherwise disengaged voters.  So I viewed it as a campaign plus, not a minus.

Second, good job on putting together that list of female federal candidates in Iowa, and I will add that only Baxter and McBurney and arguably McGuire were serious candidates.  I volunteered for Lloyd-Jones in 1992, but she was always, from the start, just a sacrificial lamb against Grassley.  The others, too, were not taken seriously by the national party or by the state Democratic leadership.  Baxter should have won and blew it.  McBurney was a local celebrity as having been the longtime weather lady on the local KCCI-TV news broadcast in Des Moines in the 70s and 80s, and while she was a top recruit and got good party support, she fell waaaay short of winning against then-freshman Greg Ganske.  Finally, McGuire was considered a good recruit in what early on was a targeted race, but she faded badly and got blown out 61-39 in an open-seat race in rural western Iowa against Tom Latham.

My wife caught me intellectually masturbating looking at dirty polls on Swing State Project.

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by: DCCyclone @ Fri Aug 21, 2009 at 09:36:34 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

McGuire's district

leaned R from the beginning, and in 1994 I don't think there's any way she could have won.

She also defeated a guy named Pete Peterson in the fifth district primary that year, and from what I remember there were some hard feelings among his supporters.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Sun Aug 23, 2009 at 15:12:58 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Pat Schroeder

Although she wasn't elected from Iowa, Patricia Schroeder, a graduate of Roosevelt High School in Des Moines ('58) served in Congress for 24 years from Colorado.

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by: davybaby @ Fri Aug 21, 2009 at 12:49:09 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

can't stand Patty Judge

but the good thing about her running against Grassley is that Culver would have to pick a new running mate. Judge is an embarrassment (really, not someone I want in a position of power).

Any D would be better than Grassley, that goes without saying.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Sat Aug 22, 2009 at 15:35:11 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Blouin

why not Blouin...I know he;s old but one would think he'd have a better shot than Judge.  

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions

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by: skywrnchsr509 @ Thu Aug 20, 2009 at 23:06:44 PM CDT

Sorry, but that demands a response of "Huh?"......

Blouin has never been elected to anything since the 70s, he would be the prototypical sacrificial lamb.  The notion he'd have a better shot than Judge is laughable.  Judge would be taken seriously.  She'd be a clear underdog and I don't think she'd come close to winning simply because Grassley still has 60ish% of the voters in his pocket even after his recent dishonesty on health care reform.  But she'd still be considered a candidate with political heft.  Blouin would not.

My wife caught me intellectually masturbating looking at dirty polls on Swing State Project.

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by: DCCyclone @ Fri Aug 21, 2009 at 09:42:17 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

I think that would be an interesting race

He's not the strongest campaigner, but he is respected by a lot of Republicans.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Sat Aug 22, 2009 at 15:27:28 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Re:Blouin

Even if he's not in the very highest tier of candidates (Vilsack, Miller, and Braley), he is:

a)several tiers higher than Grassley's past 3 opponents
b)likely to automatically get at least 35% and likely 40% of the vote (somewhere between 7 and 12 points higher than the last 3)
c)a strong enough candidate to take advantage if there is a Macaca moment a la Jim Webb 2006
d)likely to tie down millions of dollars in GOP money
e)risk free in that he's not giving up an office
f)just young enough to be on the edge of viability (maybe I'm making too much out of the seniority thing)

I guess there's also Dave Nagle, who was in Congress more recently than Blouin (although Blouin has the advantage of recently run a statewide race in the not too distant past).

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by: displacedyankdem @ Sat Aug 22, 2009 at 16:19:36 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

although I don't care for Blouin

he would be a much better candidate than Nagle. Blouin had a significant position in the Vilsack administration (headed department of economic development) and campaigned statewide during the 2006 gubernatorial primary, which he didn't lose by much.

I think he would lose to Grassley but, as you say, tie down millions in GOP money and, in the event of a total Grassley meltdown, would be credible.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Sat Aug 22, 2009 at 17:07:33 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Redistricting, if Braley runs for Senate?

Idle speculation.  Assume that Braley steps up and runs for Senate instead of re-election.

Wikipedia says Harkin moved to Ames in 2007...any chance that the commission would draw Harkin in with whoever wins the IA-01 open seat in 2010?  I mapped out the population on Dave's app, you'd probably need to stretch IA-02 up the Mississippi another county or two, and stretch IA-03 south and southeast instead of north, but it's do-able.  Didn't check what those PVIs would look like.

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by: JimM @ Thu Aug 20, 2009 at 23:12:27 PM CDT

Did you mean Tom Latham?

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by: fatcathobbes @ Thu Aug 20, 2009 at 23:28:32 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Maybe they should shift

The borders of Iowa so Harkin's house is in Nebraska and he can run against Mike Johanns

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by: mkpowers @ Fri Aug 21, 2009 at 00:50:30 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Yeah, you're right

I like the other suggestion, redistrict Harkin into Nebraska...

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by: JimM @ Fri Aug 21, 2009 at 08:10:19 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

That would be

moved back to Ames.

In 1972, Tom and Ruth Harkin each ran for office there. Tom ran for Congress, and Ruth ran for Story County D.A. She won, and he lost.

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by: davybaby @ Fri Aug 21, 2009 at 12:53:34 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Sorry. I didn't see the correction above.

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by: davybaby @ Fri Aug 21, 2009 at 12:54:37 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

A new Tinklenberg?

Whoever does run against Grassley may get some of what I'd like to call the "Tinklenberg effect" (or perhaps the "Elwyn effect") ... an outpouring of support from grassroots and netroots Dems around the country to try and knock him out after his death-panel rhetoric. (ie--crazytalk that gets Dems motivated nationally, reminiscent of the Bachmann-Elwyn Tinklenberg match from the 2008 cycle)

I would just bet that Grassley's going to get a tougher fight this year than he's had in awhile. I know I'll be giving money to whomever takes on Grassley, that's for sure.  

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by: arealmlc @ Fri Aug 21, 2009 at 14:05:24 PM CDT

"Tink effect"

Love it.  

nuff said.

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by: Andrew @ Mon Aug 24, 2009 at 00:06:18 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

IA

I'm sure this will be disregarded as me being me, but I don't think we have any real shot at knocking off Grasserly period.  Things would not only have to turn into a 2006/08 Atmosphere, but we would also need to recruit a top candidate like Vilsack.  And even then its a coin toss.

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by: Tekzilla @ Fri Aug 21, 2009 at 17:18:52 PM CDT

I agree with you

but I'd like to see us field a strong candidate to increase the straight-ticket D voting (which would help our state legislative candidates).

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by: desmoinesdem @ Sat Aug 22, 2009 at 15:29:22 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Braley continues to sound like a candidate against Grassley....

Braley is starting to look like he's seriously considering taking on Grassley based on this behavior.....

http://campaigntrail.qctimes.c...

and

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

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by: displacedyankdem @ Sat Aug 22, 2009 at 12:08:03 PM CDT

I hope he's just raising his profile

with a view to running when Grassley or Harkin retires (which could be in 2014 or 2016).

I think it would be stupid for Braley to give up his safe House seat and good committee assignment (Energy and Commerce) for a longshot bid against Grassley. We should run someone else who wouldn't have to give up an elected position.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Sat Aug 22, 2009 at 15:30:28 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Anyone

have an idea why Grassley got a pass in 1986? Every GOP senator that rode Reagan's coattails in 1980 got a very tough challenge except Grassley. Anyone know why?

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by: ehstronghold @ Sun Aug 23, 2009 at 00:48:58 AM CDT

don't know

We nominated a bad gubernatorial candidate that year too. I guess the Iowa Democratic Party must have been in disarray.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Sun Aug 23, 2009 at 15:11:35 PM CDT

[ Parent ]