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SSP Daily Digest: 7/22

by: Crisitunity

Wed Jul 22, 2009 at 1:56 PM EDT


FL-Sen: Looks like Charlie Crist has decided that, despite mediocre polling and worse fundraising from Marco Rubio, he's facing a bigger threat in the primary than he is in the general. Crist came out in opposition to the confirmation of Sonia Sotomayor yesterday, trying to shore up what remains of his conservative bona fides.

IL-Sen/Gov: Here's an explanation for why Chris Kennedy has been dawdling on declaring for the Illinois Senate primary: he's considering whether or not to jump over to the Governor's race instead. This seems very odd... not that he'd have a good chance in either race, but it seems like he'd have a better shot in a primary in an open seat race against Alexi Giannoulias, who has some vulnerabilities, than against Pat Quinn, who's fairly popular and has the benefits of incumbency. Apparently Giannoulias's fundraising scared him off.

MO-Sen: Here's an interesting tidbit out of Missouri, suggesting that former Treasurer Sarah Steelman is getting less and less likely to run in the GOP primary. Jeff Roe, who ran Steelman's 2008 campaign, has started working for Rep. Roy Blunt. Blunt still faces a primary challenge from state Sen. Chuck Purgason, though, but he doesn't pose the same level of threat that Steelman would.

NH-Sen: This is a big surprise, as he's been pouring a lot of money into advertising (for his STEWARD organization, though, not as a candidate) and starting to build a staff. Anti-tax businessman Fred Tausch announced today that he won't be running in the GOP Senate primary after all (or for anything, including the House). Considering that he was lobbing bombs at AG Kelly Ayotte just a few days ago, this is a sudden change of heart. Former Board of Education member and 1996 gubernatorial candidate Ovide Lamontagne may still provide a challenge from the right, though.

NY-Sen-B: Last night was the vaunted Bill Clinton/Carolyn Maloney fundraiser, which pulled in about $300K for Maloney's House account. Meanwhile, the Albany Project has an interesting catch in this race. It turns out that there was one question from the internal poll in May that gave Maloney a 34-32 lead over Kirsten Gillibrand that didn't get released to the public, and only came out in that City Hall News profile from a few days ago: "Asked whom they would vote for if they knew Gillibrand had the support of Schumer and Obama, people chose Gillibrand over Maloney 50-24."

IA-Gov: A fifth candidate officially got into the GOP field in the Iowa governor's race yesterday: little-known state Rep. and pastor Rod Roberts, who represents a rural part of western Iowa. Roberts polled a whopping 1% in a poll last week by the Iowa Republican blog of the GOP primary field; the poll found Bob Vander Plaats leading the field with 46%, trailed by Chris Rants at 16%, and Paul McKinley and Christian Fong each at 3%. Incumbent Democratic Gov. Chet Culver defeats Vander Plaats 48-39 and Rants 46-36.

NV-02: Ooops, back to square one in the 2nd. Douglas County school board president Cindy Trigg, who said she'd run against Rep. Dean Heller in 2010, has backed out, saying she needs to focus on the school board for now instead.

NY-23: The NRCC has gone on the air in the 23rd, launching pre-emptive TV attacks on state Sen. Darrel Aubertine before he's even a declared candidate for the special election, for voting for new taxes in the state Senate. Meanwhile, word has leaked (perhaps from GOP rival Matt Doheny's camp) that moderate Republican Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava was in fact under consideration for the Democratic nomination, but that they were scared off by unpaid tax problems associated with her brother's business (for which she's listed as the COO).

VA-11: Home inspection company owner Keith Fimian has decided on a rematch with Rep. Gerry Connolly in the now-blue 11th. Fimian, who can self-fund, lost the 2008 open seat race to Connolly, 55-43.

NY-LG: A New York judge put the kibosh on David Paterson's appointment of Richard Ravitch as Lieutenant Governor, issuing a temporary injunction to stop it, saying the state constitution does not appear to permit appointment to fill a vacancy in that position. Still, even if the appointment never goes through, it looks like it may have succeeded for Paterson, in terms of forcing Pedro Espada's hand and breaking the state Senate deadlock.

OH-AG: As was previously leaked, former Senator Mike DeWine announced today that he'll run for state Attorney General. He'll face off against Democratic incumbent Richard Cordray.

Fonts: Ever wondered about the font that defined the Obama campaign in 2008? Here's a profile of that "uniquely American" sans-serif typeface, Gotham.

Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 7/22
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a little OT
but watching to all these blue dogs from like R+5 and R+10 districts obstruct health care reform reminds me of how awesome Chet Edwards is.

Seconded
"Asked whom they would vote for if they knew Gillibrand had the support of Schumer and Obama, people chose Gillibrand over Maloney 50-24."

I wonder what Kirsten is going to focus on in her ads? Not Maloney I'm guessing.

"Dede Scozzafava was in fact under consideration for the Democratic nomination, but that they were scared off by unpaid tax problems associated with her brother's business (for which she's listed as the COO)."

Decent amo for Aubertine if she gets the GOP nod.


[ Parent ]
Dede Scozzafava
Y'know, I kinda wanted her to switch parties and run for Congress on the Dem ticket. Good cross over appeal in a decently liberal package.

Doesn't the GOP have to announce their candidate today?

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26


Scozzafava
I was also hoping that Assemblywoman Scozzafava (R) would switch parties and run as a Democrat for this open seat. Not only is she socially liberal (pro-choice and pro-gay marriage) but she's decent on economic issues too. And on a whole she's more liberal than Aubertine. But if this is the case I'd gladly support Aubertine in a special election over Scozzafava if that wins winning another seat. Imagine what the Northeast would look like if we won this seat!        

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  

[ Parent ]
If she's the nominee....
Aubertine wins. Many Republican's are ready to support him over her. We undertand the letter is not important. Its a Conservative or Liberal thing, not a Republican or Democrat thing.  

[ Parent ]
That's a very constructive contribution
I, as a social-democrat-leaning liberal voting Democratic by default, agree with you and wouldn't have hesitated to vote for Lowell Weicker on the Republican line instead of Joseph Lieberman, had I been in Connecticut at the time, on the basis that he was obviously way more liberal.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
NY-Sen Maolney
I am sick of Maloney's shenanigans. If this is illegal, she should get some sort of a punishment - at least a public rebuke. Something financial would be even better.

Careful now
This Gillibrand supporter sees nothing illegal Maloney did by not releasing poll numbers. Keep it civil.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
Agreed
Not a fan of Maloney's behavior myself but she is well wihin her rights not to announce bad numbers. Thats politics.

[ Parent ]
Christie up 15
The Newark Star Ledger is reporting on nj.com that Chris Christie has extended his lead over John Corzine to 15 points at 53-38.  The site's story reports no internals from the Strategic Vision poll but going to the Strategic Vision website, the previous poll  in June was 51-39.  

Only 24 percent think the state is on the right track vs. 62 percent who think it is on the wrong track. The "issue" seems to be the state's economy rather than the sleaze and the lack of anything but soundbites from the alleged "white knight", Christie.  In my opinion, Christie makes Robert Toricelli look like Mr. Clean.

The poll is instantly being portrayed as "Obama's visit did not help."  That seems like an over reaction, to me. Hey, Gov, all that money you threw at businesses to "create jobs" ($15 billion IIRC) was not a political help.  

Threatening the property tax rebates, otoh, was deadly. Why do you keep doing this?  The $1,000 per year is very meaningful in these tight times.  Maybe not to the Wall Streeters but most people in this state don't like to see this threatened.  The response is two fold.  Thank God for Codey (the legislature always forces Corzine's hand)and Corzine is not to be trusted.  

Businesses are not here for the tax breaks.  They are here for the customers, Jon.  Very few can easily re-locate.  NJ and CT have been neck-and-neck in recent years for the nation's highest median income.  I'm not driving 30 miles to NY or 60 miles to PA to buy groceries.  Or most other things.


Strategic Vision has a history
of severely overestimating GOP chances in New Jersey by about 5-8% or so.  Keeping that in mind, Corzine's still behind, but it's not hopeless.

I think it is pretty close to the cusp of being over
Christie is above 50 percent but only just. The news about Corzine's money troubles was not encouraging. I've not given up all hope but things are getting towards toasty.

[ Parent ]
It's sure beginning to look "over"
and that's effing depressing. NJ doesn't need a Republican Governor.  

[ Parent ]
more links on IA-Gov
I keep meaning to pull these together for a diary here, but I've been busy with other projects for the last week or so. Here are some pieces I wrote for Bleeding Heartland on:

Rod Roberts entering the race

Bob Vander Plaats as the GOP front-runner (please, make it so!)

Christian Fong dusting off Barack Obama's playbook

Fong's illogical but possibly politically advantageous stance on gay marriage

A Republican poll's findings on Chet Culver's approval, favorability and re-elect numbers

A poll commissioned by The Iowa Republican blog tried to create a sensation by polling Culver against former four-term Republican Governor Terry Branstad (Branstad led the matchup 53-37). I am skeptical for reasons I discussed here and here.


IL-Gov
That is odd. Why take on a popular incumbent when there's an open seat available? While I'm not sure how well off he is, I have a hard time believing Chris Kennedy would be strapped for cash.

I'm thinking he'll dither for a while and then not run for anything. He's done this before, apparently. When Jon Porter retired in IL-10, Kennedy thought about running and then decided not to. When Blago ran for governor, Kennedy thought about running for IL-5 but decided not to run.


Chris Kennedy
I have this crazy idea. Maybe if Chris Kennedy wants to get into politics he should start at the bottom like everyone else. Maybe he could run for city council, or something.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12

Where does he live?
Maybe he could move and take out Roskam or Biggert.

[ Parent ]
Roskam the better bet
Roskam would probably be the better bet on that one...

Scott Harper is taking his second shot at Biggert and after coming decently close while coming from no where, I think he has a good shot this year.  

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions


[ Parent ]
In 2002
he lived in Kenilworth, which is on the North Shore, in Mark Kirk's district. Hmmm...
Who knows where he lives now, though.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.


[ Parent ]
Hmmm indeed
Might be a decent shout if Seals is a dud and Bond can't raise the dough.

[ Parent ]
As "Chris Kennedy" he only donated to his cousin, Mark Shriver
(MD-08, 2002; he lost the primary to Chris Van Hollen).

As "Christopher Kennedy," though, he donated to a much longer list of candidates. The one that jumped out at me was Bill Bradley for president (1999/2000). Also, he donated to Obama for president in 2007, but nothing to his 2004 senate campaign.


[ Parent ]
Republicans nominate Scozzafava for NY-23
http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

In fear of Aubertine it appears they have went on to nominate the more moderate candidate.  


Another squeeker methinks
But if righty-bloggers are any indication Aubertine, if the nominee should pull it out.

[ Parent ]
Why do Conservatives make it so easy for us?
You dont see Daily Kos endorsing Scozzafava because Aubertine is too conservative.  Yet Red State and even the RNC announced that they'll be boycotting her.  I think a lot of Republicans will vote for the conservative nominee.  Independents I think have already announced they'd endorse Aubertine.  So would WF I assume.  Plus the controversy over taxes.  I think Aubertine wins

16, Male, MI-01

[ Parent ]
Can't really blame Aubertine running then
Promotion chances like this don't come along very often. He might be thinking he won't get another.

[ Parent ]
Not so fast
I could easily see the Working Families line going to Scozzafava and the Independent line going to Aubertine, should he be the nominee.  This is not going to be your typical race.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

[ Parent ]
No
I posted in the other thread, this is a good move on Red States part.

Ideological there is little difference between the two... in fact, lots of folks here wanted her to switch to Team Blue.

As an incumbent in 2010, she could never be primaried from the right, so Aubertine winning and running a more mainstream Republican in 2010 is very good politics.

And yes, Daily Kos could say that it is better to vote for Cao than Jefferson, and then defeat Cao in two years.  True, the reasons of corruption versus ideology are different, but from a strictly tactical perspective, it makes sense for conservatives to oppose Scozzafava in a special election.


[ Parent ]
That's a very risky gamble
NY-23 is not R+25.  It's far from a gaurantee that Aubertine would lose in 2010.  I think Scozzafava is their best candidate and if she can't win an open seat, I don't know who would beat Aubertine as an incumbent.  And the impacts from this race are not just local.  Statewide and Nationwide, losing two competitive special elections in New York in a row is going to discourage some moderate Republicans from running in competitive districts in 2010.

16, Male, MI-01

[ Parent ]
Scozzafava is not "their" candidate
There is no gamble at all.  She's left of Aubertine, so why should they want to entrench her?  especially in a swing district.  Moderate Republican women basically live forever in swing districts.  If I was a conservative, I'd vote for the weaker candidate in a bizarro election like this (where people are not free to run), whoever that was, and then in 2010 run a conservative who represented my views against that weaker candidate.

[ Parent ]
"Left of Aubertine"?
Maybe on an issue or two, but not where it counts: Aubertine is for Pelosi for Speaker; Scozzafava is for Boehner for Speaker.

[ Parent ]
Not important
Right now, the Speaker's identity is not in question. Votes on legislation are much more important.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
Well, this will be interesting
Do we want the liberal republican or the conservative Democrat who throws the NY State Senate into chaos (again) should he be elected?

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
I think it might be worth it
Just for the fallout of the GOP losing yet another House seat.

[ Parent ]
Indeed
I was one of the few people who wanted Aubertine to run all along.  One seat in Congress may not be worth control of the NY Senate, but the possibility that Aubertine winning will discourage Republicans from challenging some of our vulnerable freshmen in districts similar to NY-23 is worth it, I think.

16, Male, MI-01

[ Parent ]
We need to go for the hat trick.
Three cycles in a row where democrats gain on all three fronts (Gov, Senate, House).  It can happen.  Keep the dream alive.  

[ Parent ]
Don't see any harm in aiming high
But I just can't see it for the House. Too many potentially vulnerable Dems and so few legit Repub targets. Maybe if the economy suddenly goes crazy but unfortunately I don't think that is too likely.

[ Parent ]
Depends on how the atmosphere sizes up. Right now things don't look good.
Republican polling is up, Dems favorables are down, etc.  But we have time to save our image.  

[ Parent ]
They don't look good
But I don't think they look particularly bad either. People just don't like Republicans.

[ Parent ]
No way
As a New Yorker, having observed the chaos and bullshit out of the State Senate, and even more so, considering the highly unusual situation of an apparently truly liberal Republican running, there is no way in Hell it could be worth it.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
If Aubertine wants it
You have to look at the positives not just the obvious negatives. There is real worth in giving the national GOP another kicking before they have time to recover.

[ Parent ]
Much less worth
than the Republicans regaining control of the State Senate.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
Why would they?
Dems have a 32-30 majority in the state senate, Senate President and Majority Leader are elected, they are Democrats.

If Aubertine runs and wins, it should be October or even later. He then resigns his senate seat, still a 31-30 majority. Then another special election for his state senate seat, probably end of the year, perhaps later.
IF the Republicans retake that seat - and I dont think thats a given, even though they might be favoured - the state senate will be split 31-31 for one year until the 2010 election. No chance to change the leadership, when all Democrats keep the party line.

Redistricting will be done by the next state senate after the 2010 elections anyway...

33, living in Germany  


[ Parent ]
You want a 31-31 split again?
Did you notice what happened for the couple of weeks when there was such a split recently? You just made the argument against your position very effectively.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
Democrat
The Republican's liberal positions will evaporate when she gets to DC and gets leaned on by the leadership and threatened with a primary in 2010.

[ Parent ]
Won't last that long
We can't know that because they haven't tried to nominate someone this liberal since the early 90s, maybe earlier.  In this climate, she could cave to conservative leadership demands OR, as I think likely, she could decide being in the minority really sucks and switch.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

[ Parent ]
Nobody told me
The Child Catcher from Chitty Chitty Bang Bang was running for Senate in New Hampshire!

http://images.politico.com/glo...



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