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SSP Daily Digest: 6/12

by: Crisitunity

Fri Jun 12, 2009 at 2:36 PM EDT


• MO-Sen: I'm not sure if Roy Blunt's task just got easier or harder. Tom Schweich, a law professor and former ambassador, who started exploring the Missouri Senate race and landed some surprisingly hard blows on Blunt, yesterday decided not to run and instead endorsed Blunt. Schweich was a friend of moderate ex-Sen. John Danforth and was understood to be something of a Danforth proxy in the race. So Blunt should be happy to be free of that challenge, right? No, because he's still likely to face a challenge from former Treasurer Sarah Steelman, who hasn't formally announced her candidacy but has been stepping up her attacks on Blunt as an unprincipled insider. Without Schweich in there splitting the outsider anti-Blunt vote, Steelman becomes more viable.

• FL-Sen: Here's an endorsement from a key player for Rep. Kendrick Meek: he was endorsed by Miami mayor Manny Diaz, who's recently been associated with possibly running in FL-25 or for Lt. Gov. next year. Another interesting Meek tidbit that just came out: Meek has gotten more tobacco industry money than anyone else in the 2010 election cycle (more than, say, Jim Bunning or Richard Burr). Meek has close ties with the Tampa-based cigarmaking industry.

• OH-Gov: What's that? An endorsement from a puny mortal like Manny Diaz? Screw that, because John Kasich just got an endorsement from Chuck Norris. (Which is odd, because I thought the fact was that Chuck Norris didn't endorse politicians; politicians endorse Chuck Norris.) Ted Strickland was reportedly last seen running in terror on the shoulder of I-70, trying to get out of Ohio before sunset.

• CA-03: A second credible Dem has gotten into the race against the newly-vulnerable Rep. Dan Lungren in this R+6 district in the Sacramento suburbs. Bill Slaton, director of the Sacramento Municipal Utility District (and overseer of the electrial grid for 1.5 million people), filed to enter the race, joining confusingly-named fellow Dem (and Elk Grove city councilor) Gary Davis.

• CT-04: The GOP has landed an interesting challenger to go against freshman Rep. Jim Himes: 24-year-old Will Gregory, a "young, fiscally conservative, socially moderate Republican" activist who applied for a White House job during the Bush administration and, when asked to name two administration policies he agreed with, couldn't provide an answer. State Senate minority leader John McKinney also seems likely to get in the race for the GOP and would bring a bit more, um, gravitas.

• NY-29: Tom Reed, the mayor of Corning, New York, announced that he won't run for a second turn but that he was looking at another public service opportunity that he couldn't be specific about, but that sounded suspiciously like running in the 29th against freshman Rep. Eric Massa.

• FL-Ag. Comm.: Ordinarily even we at SSP wouldn't get so far down into the weeds as to post results of a poll of the GOP primary for the Florida Agriculture Commission race, but the results are too unbelievable to pass up... unbelievably funny, that is. The idea that the guy who used to be #3 on the House leadership ladder would try to demote himself to Florida Agriculture Commissioner is odd enough, but Rep. Adam Putnam is trailing a state Senator, Carey Baker, 26-17, in that race.

• NY-St. Senate: As everyone sits and waits to see whether state Senator Hiram Monserrate should stay or go (he's vacillating on his coup participation, meaning the whole thing turns on him now), two interesting new developments. One is that the coup may lead to ouster of Dem leader Malcolm Smith and his replacement with John Sampson, who apparently has a better relationship with the dissidents. Also, there's buzz (though nothing confirmed) that Barack Obama himself has been on the phone with not just Monserrate and Pedro Espada, trying to get them back into the fold, but also with Darrel Aubertine (although it's unclear whether Obama would encourage Aubertine to stay in the Senate as the Dems try to get their narrow edge back or to get into the NY-23 race that Obama opened up for him by promoting John McHugh).
Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 6/12
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SSP Daily Digest: 6/12 | 36 comments
I'm hoping Schofaaza
runs for NY-23.

Tom Reed? I thought he was Democrat. Eric Massa is from Corning too.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

Danforth moderate?
John Danforth, a moderate? Is that what we've come to? John Danforth was always a principled pro-life conservative, no moderate. I respected him, because unlike many anti-abortion demagogues, he actually believed that life doesn't end at birth and also cared about other matters of morality, such that he was one of the Republican senators who voted to override President Reagan's (or was it George HW Bush's?) veto of divestment from South Africa legislation. Danforth, a minister, used to fund a grant for aspiring grad students to go to the school of their choice, and it always included a line item for child care. My mother was a recipient of the grant, which also funded a great babysitter for me. Danforth later decided to use the fund to support poor people in St. Louis, instead. Danforth is admirably principled, ethical, and anti-racist, but he is not a moderate.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
compared to John Ashcroft?
He was a moderate.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Compared to Gonzalez?
And compared to Gonzalez, Ashcroft is a moderate.

I guess 80% or more of the Republicans who were in the Senate 20 years ago would be called "moderate" today?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

[ Parent ]
May be true
Although I think Gonzalez is pro-choice (at least on upholding Roe v Wade). True thats not the only issue that matters, just ask Brian Bilbray for example.
[ Parent ]
Yeah, that pretty much
is what we've come to. We do need a better one-word shorthand for Republicans who aren't in the Snowe/Collins or Leach/Shays territory, who are still reliable conservative votes, but who are still to the left of where the party's midpoint falls today and who don't need to habitually act like assholes... establishment/main street types like Voinovich or Lugar in the Senate, or Jerry Moran or Mike Simpson or Vern Ehlers in the House.  
[ Parent ]
With the GOP, "moderate" is a relative term
I think we all try not to lump the Danforths, Lugars, Voinovich's, et. al. with the new breed of Republicans that are currently in control of the GOP.  I know I refer to these guys as "moderates" just because they have more class than the neocons that are running their caucus.  Unfortunately for the GOP, most of these guys are old and will not be around for much longer.

Snowe and Collins are the only true "moderates" in the Senate, and they are somewhat alienated from their caucus.  I think Danforth is more like Snowe and Collins than the Bunnings, McConnells, Cornyns, so I tend to lump him as a moderate as a result.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
Well, I went back
to the DW/Nominate scores, and it kind of confirms what we're saying, that Danforth is right on the cusp between true "moderate" and mere "non-asshole conservative." In his last two years, the 103rd Congress (93-94), his score of 0.168 made him the 8th least conservative Republican (out of 44). Mark Hatfield was most moderate, followed by Specter, Chafee, Cohen, Durenberger, Packwood, and Kassebaum (no Snowe or Collins in the Senate at that point). (The closest analogues in the 110th Congress were Norm Coleman, at 0.170, and Gordon Smith.)
[ Parent ]
Shays was good at acting moderate
He switched positions and said he'd support withdrawl last minute in 2006 to get reelected, and then promptly went back to his hold position the next time around.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
This is a good point
Maybe we should pose this challenge to the site in a front-page post. (No babka this time, though.)
[ Parent ]
"the honorable [name]"?
Heh.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Yeah
it's odd that guys like McCain, Lugar, Voinovich, Pawlenty, and Peter King are considered moderates.  20 years ago they'd be your standard conservative Republican.
[ Parent ]
Not to be too cynical...
But Danforth came pretty close to being Bush's VP in 2000 (right?).  And since he was passed over for that and maybe another primo administration post he wanted (UN, maybe?), it seems like he's gone out of his way to stick his finger in the eyes of fellow Republicans.

I have a tough time buying his "lonely moderate" routine, when I think it really has more to do with feeling spurned by the GOP powers that be circa 2000/2001.

[ Parent ]
CT-04: Not being able to name two Bush admin policies that he agreed with...
...isn't that a plus?

Also, looks like CA-03 is producing more Bills.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

When he
brought that up, yes, I assume he was trying to make the point to this district's Rockefeller Republicans that he was a moderate by comparison. He probably wasn't trying to make a point that he was a doofus who can't think on his feet, although it could just as easily be interpreted that way.
[ Parent ]
In surprised
He could at least name a trade bill he agreed with. Even Linc Chafee, a solid pro-free trader, could do that. I think its more likely he just had a brain freeze. It happens. Even in a big interview.
[ Parent ]
Though who knows
Maybe he is anti-free trade, despite being from a district where probably 90% of moderate/liberal Republicans are free trade.
[ Parent ]
MO-Senate
Roy Blunt lost the last time he tried for statewide office here In Missouri.back In 1992 he lost the Governor's nomination to crook William Webster who lost In a landslide
to Mel Carnahan.His Daughter Robin our popular secretary of State who just won reelection In 2008 with 61 percent
of the vote.On the Democrats side you have the secretart of state daughter of a late popular Governor against the father of a very unpopular Governor.This Is why danforf wanted someone else against Blunt In The republican primary.

Missouri Is on path to having 2 female Senators.

Pretty astonishing isn't it?
Missouri has swung our way pretty fast recently.  I was hoping for some more movement in the House but I guess we just need a better map.
[ Parent ]
The Missouri Map
It's going to be one of the most interesting ones to pop up in 2012. The Rs have the legislature, but the Ds have the governor. All the D seats except Skelton should be safe regardless of redistricting (unless I am misinformed and the cities in MO are losing the people as opposed to the rural lands).

MO-9 and MO-6 were good opportunities in 2008 and there is no real excuse for our collapse in MO-6. MO-9 I think suffered from the same reaction NC-8 had in 2006 where no one out of the district believed it was competitive.

Still, should Carnahan win, the Rs are left with only the Lt. Gov. as their only statewide seat. Hopefully that 2012 map for both the legislature and US Congress will be a little more 50/50 than it is currently.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
Disagree
I don't think MO-09 is comparable to NC-08 in 2006. In 2006, Kissell was basically campaigning on his lonesome with no outside help. Two years later, in MO-09, the DCCC and friendly PACs spent $1.4 million on independent expenditures in support of Judy Baker -- in other words, she had a LOT of outside help. She came close, but the district just wasn't quite friendly enough for her to pull off the win.
[ Parent ]
it really hasn't
its the most polarized of states. Roughly about 45% will never vote for a Democrat in a competitive race, and Democrats are making minimal gains in the State House and Senate the last few cycles, despite their increasingly good statewide showings, (which is more due to the incompetence and extremism of Republicans than to any Democratic trend).


Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
It seems most
Of the Dem strength in MO is concentrated in just a few particular districts. The KC-area one and the two STL-area ones. Even Skelton's district will probably flip once he retires.
[ Parent ]
Though
A Dem legislature could easily trade much of the Dem-leaning white vote in MO-1 (Clay) and MO-5 (Cleaver) for alot of GOP-leaning white votes in a neighboring district. Such as GOP-leaning white votes in MO-6 (Graves) and MO-2 (Akin).
[ Parent ]
MS-Gov and NV-Gov
Mississippi

From the Clarion Ledger:

Clarksdale attorney and businessman Bill Luckett is trying to raise money to run for Mississippi governor 2011, saying he wants to reduce poverty and improve public education because he believes the state "does not have to accept a perpetual spot on the bottom rung of America."

The Democrat, who owns the Ground Zero Blues Club and the upscale Madidi restaurant in Clarksdale with actor Morgan Freeman, said Thursday that he is forming a political action committee called Progress for Mississippi. He also has been hiring campaign staff members.

Not sure how major a candidate he'll be, but he does have an interesting quote:

"You can't have grown up in the Mississippi Delta with any kind of sensitivity or any kind of feelings and not come out of that aligned with the Democratic Party, unless you're just a racist or something," Luckett said.

Nevada

From the Review Journal:

Could Oscar Goodman be Nevada's Jesse Ventura?

The larger-than-life Las Vegas mayor confirmed Thursday he is considering a run for governor as an independent candidate not affiliated with a political party.

Under term limits, Goodman's third and final term as mayor ends in 2011. A Democrat, he has periodically floated the idea of running for governor or other higher office over the years, but the idea of an independent run is new.

...By running as an independent, Goodman could position himself as a "total maverick," appealing to voters who are disaffected with partisan politics.

"That's the way I ran as mayor," he said. "I do it my way. It's always worked for me."

A former mob lawyer, Goodman, 69, is known for a flamboyant style that he says helps promote Las Vegas as a destination. He has an endorsement contract with a brand of gin and routinely appears at public events with a scantily clad showgirl in full headdress on each arm, accompanied by an Elvis impersonator.

...Getting on the ballot as an independent candidate is remarkably easy. For statewide office such as governor, it takes a petition with the signatures of 250 registered Nevada voters, to be submitted in early February prior to the March candidate filing period, Clark County Registrar Larry Lomax said.

Independent candidates must not themselves be registered with a political party, so Goodman would have to switch his registration from Democrat.

...In a general election with a Democrat, a Republican and Goodman, Goodman would be likely to take more votes away from the Democratic candidate, potentially helping the Republican nominee to victory, Damore said.


Appoint him Ambassador to Monte Carlo

[ Parent ]
good grief
and to think we wanted this guy as a statewide candidate before?

We're going to need the Vegas votes to take back the governorship, there's no reason for another Republican to win when Gibbons inevitably announces his retirement later this year.

[ Parent ]
We still do
If he runs as an independant, it will not be a Dem pickup.

We want him in the Dem primary.

[ Parent ]
hmmm
actually, I don't really care which way he goes...I'd view it as a Dem pick up either way.  What we really need him to do is make up his mind soon.  If he decides to run as an indy....we should basically ditch running a Dem candidate and just give it to him.  The guy is a Dem whether he runs as one or not and will be a large improvement over Gibbons.  


Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions
[ Parent ]
That's why we lose for sure if he runs as an indy
Even if some Larouche-ite is the Dem nominee, now way can we win in Nevada with a split vote.
[ Parent ]
I think that was an uncalled for quote by Luckett
Even if the MS Dem Party is probably socially conservative (and I think even pro-life in their state party platform. its what i read a few years ago, anyway). Thatd be like someone saying, 'well how can someone from NYC be against the war in Afghanistan unless hes anti-American?'. But anyway...no way will a guy like him win. Even most white registered Dems there will be utterly offended since most of them will back a Republican in federal races and thus be somewhat aligned with the GOP (by virtue of their votes).
[ Parent ]
Florida Agriculture Commissioner
is a stepping stone to the Governor's mansion. Putnam is aggressive enough to try for that in the future should he get elected statewide. The Ag. Commissioner will get a lot of contact from the big agriculture industries in Florida and interests which is a good thing/campaign donor base for a future state-wide campaign. It is not a step down in any way.  
No, it is
Third in the Republican leadership in Washington vs. a position that could potentially set him up to be Governor of Florida?  It's a demotion anyway you look at it, but Putnam must see that the GOP won't be in the majority for quite some time.
[ Parent ]
It isn't to Putnam
I'm not going to pretend to know anything about the job of Florida Agriculture Commissioner, but it's myopic to believe that every politician or student of politics will believe that going from a leadership position in DC to a non-gubernatorial statewide leadership post is a demotion.

Everyone is different.  Some people and politicians are going to believe the U.S. House leadership post is better; others will believe the opposite.  It depends on perspective, objectives, and a range of other criteria.

My guess is that Putnam genuinely believes that agriculture commissioner IS a promotion.  My guess is that LOTS of politicians agree with him.  I personally may not agree with them, but to insult Putnam for his choice is myopic.

At minimum, he introduces himself to an additional 15 to 20 million people or whatever Florida's population is.  He might view that as a promotion in and of itself.  I might not, but....well you get the point.

Different strokes for different folks.

Shalom,
ZWrite

[ Parent ]
Putnam, Tim Ryan
Like Rep. Tim Ryan (who considered being Strickland's Lt. Gov. runningmate), he probably realizes that yeah a non-Gov. statewide post, back home, is a demotion but its actually a better stepping stone to being Gov. or Sen. FL, like OH, has many congressmen so its hard to get noticed unless youre a statewide officeholder. And even many of them have a hard time getting noticed.
[ Parent ]
A problem I have with it is...
Its just so blatantly obvious why Putnam wants the job. Its because he wants it to be a stepping stone. I dont have a problem with politicians taking a job for that reason, but dont make it be so obvious. It makes me think they care about the job even less.
[ Parent ]
SSP Daily Digest: 6/12 | 36 comments

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