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MO-09: An Open Seat on the Horizon?

by: James L.

Sun May 13, 2007 at 7:10 PM EDT

From the Prince of Darkness:

Rep. Kenny Hulshof, a rising Republican star in Congress, is on the short list to be University of Missouri president. That raises the possibility of Democrats picking up his House seat representing Missouri's Little Dixie.
Hulshof won the once solidly Democratic seat in 1996 with 48 percent of the vote and was given a coveted membership on the House Ways and Means Committee. Hulshof has won recent elections with over 61 percent (even in 2006, when Democrats were winning elsewhere in Missouri and a state Senate seat in the district was lost by the Republicans).
Missouri Republican strategists worry that it would be difficult to retain the district in a special election if Hulshof takes the university post.

While Bush won this district by 55/42 and 59/41 margins in 2000 and 2004, respectively, it was represented by Democrat Harold Volkmer for 20 years from 1977-1997. A special election with a strong local Democratic candidate could prove to be a rockin' good time. In fact, special elections in both this district and Arizona's 1st district could give Tom Cole and the NRCC brain trust migraines this summer, should they happen.

Now, I have a question for the SSP brain trust: how well did Claire McCaskill perform in this district last November?

UPDATE (David): Man, I knew someone would come up with the answer! Major props to MORawn for crunching the numbers: in 2006, McCaskill got 46% in MO-09, to Talent's 54%. That jives with pcd's slightly rougher calculation. So, a tough row to hoe even for a top-shelf candidate, given that last year's senate race was a high-water mark for us. But an open seat is always a game-changer.

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James L. :: MO-09: An Open Seat on the Horizon?

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MO-09: An Open Seat on the Horizon? | 22 comments

Might be a competitive

This would be a good opportunity for Democrats to gain more ground in this state. Hopefully, there is a good candidate that could run if this seat opens up.

by: DrPhillips @ Sun May 13, 2007 at 18:37:27 PM CDT

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does it seem like we've had a lot of special elections?

there are three so far, and with so many mayoral primaries and house members running, we're bound to get another special election then there's this. it seems a bit weird to have so many special elections so early into the session.

being normal is for the mediocre.

by: doug_tuttle @ Sun May 13, 2007 at 19:27:09 PM CDT

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I don't think it's that many

Take a look at this Wikipedia page:

http://en.wikipedia....

In 2001, you had three special elections by around this time of year.

by: DavidNYC @ Sun May 13, 2007 at 19:53:35 PM CDT

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We could win MO-09

This was nothing but a Democratic district until Hulshof upset Volckmer in 1996. We would need a pro-life an pro-gun populist Dem to win.

by: Sean @ Sun May 13, 2007 at 20:32:06 PM CDT

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The sluething

I think looking at the election data, is that Talen got somewhere between 53-55 in the district, but he was an incumebent. An open seat could fall the the right Democrat

by: democraticavenger @ Sun May 13, 2007 at 21:39:45 PM CDT

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she did win some of the rural counties on the mississippi

those rural counties on the west side of the mississippi from missouri through louisiana are interesting anomalies: all tend to be democratic. i think it is the river, and i believe it is the result of trade and exposure to outsiders throughout history. i will try to calculate.

give me a few minutes.

by: pointecoupeedemocrat @ Sun May 13, 2007 at 22:05:06 PM CDT

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imperfect calculations

missouri sos does not have results listed by precinct, which requires me to take the total number for the st. charles county and to multiple it by the percentage of votes cast for MO-09 in st. charles county. louisiana lists results by precinct, and missouri should do the same.

my totals for talent and mccaskill only, as i exclude the libertarian and progressive candidate, are 125,704 for talent and 110,106 for mccaskill. talent won MO-09 with 53.3% of the vote.

notice boone county, the population center of MO-09 cast its vote for mccaskill.

by: pointecoupeedemocrat @ Sun May 13, 2007 at 22:40:12 PM CDT

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mccaskill, according to my two party calculation,

earned 46.7% of the vote in MO-09.

by: pointecoupeedemocrat @ Sun May 13, 2007 at 22:41:34 PM CDT

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Clinton

won MO-09 in both 1992 and 1996.

by: Sean @ Mon May 14, 2007 at 05:26:48 AM CDT

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Mel Carnahan

Didn't Mel Carnahan win this region during his runs for governor and (posthumously) senator. I recall reading somewhere that he won 10 points more than Gore did, making roughly 52%. Anyone have those stats? Plus, aren't there a lot of D state reps/senators from Little dixie as well?

by: corran horn @ Tue May 15, 2007 at 18:12:04 PM CDT

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Probably not anymore

Most of the rural Missouri Democrats seemed to have been wiped out in that 2000/2002 Republican takeover period. Ike Skelton is the only Democrat who represents rural Missouri anymore and his district will almost certainly be abolished in the 2011 redistricting.

by: Sean @ Wed May 16, 2007 at 02:31:53 AM CDT

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not quite true

Three Dems represent the "bootheel" area, which is in MO-8. They are: Steve Hodges (161), Terry Swinger (162), and Tom Todd (163). Also included in Hulsof's district are Mike Frame (105), Brad Robinson (107), and JC Kuessner. So, in fact, there are quite a few Dems still around in this district.

Check out the SOS maps for US and MO house districts and consult the MO Dems list of elected officials.

Hope that helps.

by: corran horn @ Wed May 16, 2007 at 12:20:46 PM CDT

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Whoops, wrong district!

The districts i mentioned are in Emerson's district MO-8. However, there are a few dems in Kenny's district: Rachel Bringer (6), Tom Shivley (8), Paul Quinn (9) and Terry Witte (10). State senate is an even better match with Frank Barnitz (16) and Wes Shoemyer (19) representing the bulk of MO-9's counties.

by: corran horn @ Wed May 16, 2007 at 12:44:24 PM CDT

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Precinct by Precint Numbers

In the 9th District, McCaskill got 46.18% of the two-party vote. Montee (state auditor) took 53.36%. Amendment 2 (Stem Cell) was at 47.87%.

In 2004, Kerry got crushed by Bush 40.97 - 59.03%.

The 9th District has voted 5.2% more for Republicans at the top of the ticket during the '04 and '06 Cycles than the state of Missouri, as a whole, and has a PVI of R+7.

Even if Hulshof leaves office, a Dem pickup here would be a bit of a stretch.

by: MORawn @ Mon May 14, 2007 at 14:22:37 PM CDT

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Very cool

How did you get the data?

by: DavidNYC @ Mon May 14, 2007 at 21:36:28 PM CDT

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I bought them

from the state. You can get the precinct level results for every Fed and State race for any cycle going back to '96 on a cd for $20 from Robin Carnahan's office (the MO Sec. of State).

by: MORawn @ Mon May 14, 2007 at 22:42:14 PM CDT

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interesting

that information is free in louisiana.

by: pointecoupeedemocrat @ Tue May 15, 2007 at 09:18:06 AM CDT

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A Democrat in the mold of Volckmer

could win there.

by: Sean @ Tue May 15, 2007 at 00:16:23 AM CDT

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County-by-county it looks tough.

According to this, which is one of my favorite things on the Internet (click on "state by state," then on "Missouri"), Boone and Pike are the only counties in the district where McCaskill beat Talent. Most other counties went to Talent by 8-12 points.

by: Seth D @ Mon May 14, 2007 at 17:32:11 PM CDT

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A thing to look at

Kerry did terrible in the rural areas of missouri.Bush only got 55% here in 2000, well within the range of a Democratic take over, at least for a rural district, maybe not for a suburban district. But, another thing to consider is that Talent repsented a district just south of this one so this was his turf. he was a U.s. in Todd akin's district for a couple of terms. so, east Missouri, outside of the heavily black and labor St. Louis and it's inner suburbs, is Talent's turf. McCaskill did well in West Missouri. Can someone tell me just how large her landslide in Emmaneul cleaver's district was. I know from Cq. Politics.com that she narrowly won Sam Graves formerly Democratic district which hated Kerry and gave Bush 57% of the vote. Of course forty percent of the population lived in a sliver of Kansas City and it's suburban portions that fall in this district, and that was McCaskill's turf. Still 50-46 is still slightly more Democratic as the state as whole. Kerry was crushed in the rural areas, and failed to win the suburbs. Here, McCaskill successfully held down Talent's margin in the rural areas more so that in other parts of the state and won big in the suburbs and by a bigger than normal margin in St. Joseph. Huh...If only it was sam Graves and not Hulshof considering retirement for the position of President of the University of Missouri.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Tue May 15, 2007 at 16:35:28 PM CDT

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Dukakis

surpisingly did better than Kerry in MO-09. He got 46%, which was 5 points better than Kerry's 41%.

by: Sean @ Tue May 15, 2007 at 17:21:10 PM CDT

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Dukakis won Iowa

Bukakis got 46% in North Dakota, which gave bush 63% of the vote this past election against Kerry. Dukakis did far tter in south Dakota and Montana. Kerry was just a pathetic candidate and ran a pathetic campaign in rural areas, where his campaign was non existant and Bush clobbered him him on the ad waves. Kerry literally spent almost no money on ads in red states, didn't put together a cohesive GOTV effort in those states, and got slaughtered. Kerry stopped running ads in Missouri months before the elction, therefore his seven point loss, is, I think exagerated. In hhindsight, he ran a very apathetic,horrible campagin/

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Mon May 21, 2007 at 15:19:16 PM CDT

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MO-09: An Open Seat on the Horizon? | 22 comments