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PA-Sen: Ridge Won't Run

by: Crisitunity

Thu May 07, 2009 at 12:47 PM EDT


For a few days there, it was looking like PA-Sen had turned from a coup for Democrats to a giant exploding cigar. Not just because Arlen Specter was having great trouble adjusting to Democratic, uh, behavioral norms, but also because GOP pollsters had former Governor and DHS Secretary Tom Ridge not only beating Pat Toomey in the primary, but also beating Specter in the general.

Ridge threw cold water on that idea this morning, issuing this following statement:

"After careful consideration and many conversations with friends and family and the leadership of my party, I have decided not to seek the Republican nomination for Senate," Ridge said in a statement.

"I am enormously grateful for the confidence my party expressed in me, the encouragement and kindness of my fellow citizens in Pennsylvania and the valuable counsel I received from so many of my party colleagues."

Without Ridge, GOP efforts to find an anti-Toomey may turn back to Rep. Jim Gerlach, who is looking to bail out of the increasingly blue PA-06 and has launched a gubernatorial exploratory committee, but has been publicly open to switching to the Senate race.
Crisitunity :: PA-Sen: Ridge Won't Run
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PA-Sen: Ridge Won't Run | 49 comments
Gerlach vs. Toomey
I could see Ridge defeating Toomey, but I don't know about Gerlach.  Can Gerlach defeat Toomey?

40, male, Democrat, NC-04
I seriously doubt it
but he can make Toomey still spend all his money and get bruised up and attack him as too radical so then Toomey gets destroyed by Arlen Specter after specter dispatches Sestak if Sestak runs.

And I'd be worried about Pa-07. It barely moved more Democratic at all. Delaware County is also more blue collar and still very old school Republican on a local level with lots of strong legislators to run for the seat.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
Is there a viable candidate in PA-7 if Sestak runs? (eom)


40, male, Democrat, NC-04
[ Parent ]
DemocraticLentz
We have a dude, state Rep. Brian Lentz, an Iraq War vet who would probably be a pretty strong recruit. He actually ran for this seat in 2006, but dropped out and ran for the state House instead once Sestak entered -- so no doubt he'd be interested in moving on up.
[ Parent ]
Definitely yes
State Rep. Bryan Lentz. He's an attorney and Iraq vet. He was going to run in 2006, but deferred when Sestak got in.

As for the question further upthread, about whether Gerlach can beat Toomey, it's possible, but certainly not as likely as Ridge beating Toomey. Although Ridge is ostensibly moderate, he has statewide name rec, and a base in the west where he used to be a Representative, so that eats into Toomey's strength in the west. Gerlach, on the other hand, isn't especially known outside his district, and he's in the Philly suburbs, where there probably aren't too many GOP primary voters left (they've all fled to the Dems). Plus, Gerlach's also on the moderate side. But if the NRSC decides that it really wants to sandbag Toomey and pours in buckets of money (that it wouldn't thus be able to spend in Ohio or Missouri or wherever), then they still might be able to get Gerlach through the primary... although Gerlach would probably be DOA in the general, since, again, his base is the Philly suburbs, which is where Specter is most dominant.

[ Parent ]
Sestak vs. Specter
I was happy that Specter left the GOP party--it was a nice "screw you" to McConnell, Cornyn, et al.  But Specter has been acting erratic (not to the degree of Bunning, thank goodness).  I don't know if Specter's gaffes are due to stress or senility.  Or a combination of both.

If Sestak runs, can he defeat Specter if Specter has the support of the White House?  I wouldn't mind starting fresh and go with Sestak if Specter is going to be an unreliable Democrat.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
My hope
Is that Sestak continues raising a lot of money and threatens to challenge Specter through this fall, forcing Specter to go along with a public option health plan.  If Specter continues acting erratic and the unions withhold support for Specter he can pounce.
[ Parent ]
Well, see 2004
White House + Senate leadership + Junior Senator vs. Grassroots + Partisan interest groups

That ended up being a nail biter.

Arlen Specter is a silly person.  He needs to take a page from Gillebrand.

[ Parent ]
Gerlach really isn't moderate
at all. He's a fairly solid conservative.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Which qualifies him as a moderate in the GOP
just like how John McCain and Lindsay Graham are moderates.
[ Parent ]
a good point


Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
His DW/Nominate score
for the last Congress was 0.29, which ranks him between McHugh and Castle at 6th least conservative among the Republicans who survived to be in this Congress. I tend to use "moderate" as short-hand for that cohort of northeast Republicans, although based on their forming ranks with their more conservative brethren, they're certainly not "moderating" anything this Congress so far.

As food for thought, take a look at the mirror image Democrats. The 6th least liberal Democrat, Harry Mitchell, has a score of - 0.096. If you find - 0.29, that takes you all the way up to some of the Blue Dogs least likely to crap on the carpet (Boswell and Moore), tied at 52nd least liberal (and one slot up from Joe Sestak, our purported savior in Pennsylvania).

[ Parent ]
SE PA districts
If the GOP can get a strong, popular local officeholder to run for an open seat i can see them winning. But other than that Id say the Dems have a huge upper hand.
[ Parent ]
Specter won't necessarily "dispatch" Sestak
Netroots and labor support will be difficult to defeat. Specter is open to attacks as an out of touch, insider politician only concerned about his own reelection. It's early now, but if he votes against or waters down public option healthcare and/or cap and trade he's gonna be toast.
[ Parent ]
Ok, that's the ball game
The real race is in the Democratic primary now.  
Yep
Ridge was the only moderate with any realistic chance of winning a primary against Toomey, and even his winning the primary was a stretch.  The Dem nominee is going to win this thing.
[ Parent ]
Ridge was a complete hail mary
Ridge never had the slightest interest in running.  The Republicans were just so desperate.  I think McConnell and Cornyn started circulating talking pts for members to tout Ridge to the media and then they commissioned that poll fast to try to show Ridge he would be strong.  But in the end, this guy was never interested in being one of 40 members in the Senate, and this episode shows just how desperate the NRSC is.  
I was worried about Cornyn...
... getting his party's recruiting together.  But with Kirk and Ridge demurring, it's not going to be terribly impressive.  His best recruit is costing his party a larger prize (FL-Guv), and may not even make it out of the primary.  I'm guessing that Castle ends up demurring (when a pol talks about either running for a higher office or retirement, that's not a good sign - see Hagel, Chuck), and Sununu is not looking like he gets in.  

Grayson, OTOH, is probably in.  Simmons was a fine get.  And he has decent second tier recruits in OH and MO (but clear underdogs compared to ours).

To summarize things:
Schumer>Menendez>Cornyn>Ensign>>Dole

Schumer is probably the best strategist
in the Democratic party.
[ Parent ]
I'd agree with that
I'd also put Rahm up near the top as well.  Maybe Van Hollen too based on what I've seen so far.
[ Parent ]
Yeah
I like Durbin's politics more, but I wouldn't mind if Schumer ends up being Reid's successor.
[ Parent ]
yup, though its strange that the
past four cycles the DSCC has been run from someone from the NYC area.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
What's that line about robbing banks?
"That's where the money is"

28, Unenrolled, MA-08
[ Parent ]
Did Kirk say no to the Illinois Senate race? (eom)


40, male, Democrat, NC-04
[ Parent ]
No. Not publicly, at least.
There was a Chicago Daily Observer gossip blurb yesterday that suggested that he was gonna seek re-election, but from what I've heard, that particular columnist is not considered the most reliable of writers.
[ Parent ]
Kirk needs to run,
he leaves open a easy pick pick up for Democrats.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Who is the best candidate for the Dems?


40, male, Democrat, NC-04
[ Parent ]
For the Senate and for Kirk's district
Didn't clarify...

40, male, Democrat, NC-04
[ Parent ]
Not definite.
But I saw something from anonymous sources in a Chicago paper, FWIW.
[ Parent ]
Thing about Castle is...
...that he'll have a tough opponent no matter which office he goes for.  And he already is running statewide anyway.  The question he's goint to ask himself is whether Beau Biden (especially once Obama's numbers inevitably start to fall) would be easier to go up against than say Carney.  I'd venture to say the answer is yes.

Castle is getting up there in age and not in the best of health so hopefully he'll just step aside and call it a career.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

[ Parent ]
Sestak
Even more reason for Sestak to run now.  With the threat of Ridge removed.  
Maybe will help Specter move left
Specter may have felt that Ridge and the general election was more of a threat to his reelection than the D primary.  With Ridge removed from the equation, the Rs best chance of winning is gone.  Thus, Specter may feel more inclined to protect his left flank.  All just speculation.
Big blow
It seems Gerlach is their only real option. I doubt AG Corbett could be persuaded to jump into the Senate contest instead.
Gerlach
He'd almost certainly go for Governor if he wants to run statewide.  He would almost certainly lose a primary to Toomey, but would probably have a better shot as at the Gov nomination.
[ Parent ]
Corbett has Gov locked up at least through
the primary. I expect Meehan may take a shot at Senate now.
[ Parent ]
Wow, that's the best they have?
A guy who was re-elected with 52% of the vote last year?
[ Parent ]
You can set your watch
to the Governor's chair switching back and forth every 8 years in Pennsylvania. There's a first time for everything, but I'm not too optimistic.

Really, Corbett is a stronger candidate than you give him credit for.  

[ Parent ]
And the GOP
Is worse off today that it's been in at least 30+ years, maybe 50.
[ Parent ]
i don't really give him credit considering
he ran against a nobody and Democrats appear to have a strong local candidate from SW PA where Republicans have to wrack up votes now to win. Democrats have never been this strong in PA.

Look at the last years it switched, 1994 and 1978, terrible years for Democrats in a much more conservative PA.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
Ok, whatever
I'm not going to try and convince you of anything.
[ Parent ]
What happened in 1994?
I was browsing Pennsylvania's past Governor's race results and this one stuck out.

How the heck did a Constitution Party candidate get nearly a half million votes in PA?  Protest vote by conservatives against Ridge maybe?

Nov 08, 1994 General Election  
Tom Ridge (R)
1,627,976
45.40%    

Mark Singel (D)
1,430,099
39.89%    

Peg Luksik (Constitution Party)
460,269
12.84%  


[ Parent ]
Peg is an anti abortion activist
and Ridge is, as you know, pro-choice. Poor Mark Singel had the worst of all worlds: he was running against the cycle, against a pro-choice Republican, and in the shadow of Bob Casey, Sr., the popular outgoing Governor who supposedly refused to campaign for him (Singel is also pro-choice IIRC).

Peg was where most of the single-issue (anti-abortion) votes went.  

[ Parent ]
It says he was acting Gov when he ran in 1994
Why exactly did Casey Sr. vacate the Governorship before his term was up?

And if anything it sounds like Ridge would have won a landslide in 1994 had there not been a strong 3rd party candidate.

[ Parent ]
Casey Sr. was very sick
see his Wiki page.

And yes, Ridge was essentially a shoo-in.

[ Parent ]
Casey had health problems
amyloidosis, requiring a multiple organ transplant.
[ Parent ]
Ancient history
The 8 year flipping thing was a political lifetime ago.  It's not relevant now, anymore than California's long list of Republican Govs is.
[ Parent ]
Don't count out Gerlach
The man is a pretty savvy politican, voting just moderately enough to hold his Dem-leaning district, and nuking his 2008 opponent early on (despite him being underfunded and not considered a serious candidate) so he held on despite the Obama wave in Pennsylvania. He'd have a tough time winning a primary, but if he can get through he would have a good chance of winning the general.
He also uses Brabender Cox
Which is, IMO, the best Republican media firm. (They couldn't save Santorum, though).
[ Parent ]
Jesus H. Christ...
Couldn't save Santorum!
[ Parent ]
PA-Sen: Ridge Won't Run | 49 comments

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