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NY-20: About Those Absentees...

by: DavidNYC

Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 1:12 AM EDT


From the Daily News:

As of yesterday evening, the board had canvassed the 10 counties in the 20th and discovered that 10,055 absentee ballots had been issued by seven counties and 5,906 had been returned.

That number could go up, as three counties haven't provided their numbers. Absentee ballots must be received by April 7, but the ballots sent in by overseas/federal/military voters (recall that there was a fight over those) can arrive by April 13 and still be counted.

Of the 10,055 absentees, the Repubicans have a roughly 600-ballot edge, according to the board. But of the 5,906 received to date, 798 more came from Republicans.

These numbers might be good news for Scott Murphy. Accord to the NYS BoE (PDF, p. 9), enrollment in the 20th is 42R-26D-24I. If those percentages had held among the 5,906 absentee ballots returned so far, there would have been 2,468 GOP ballots vs. 1,547 Dem ballots - a margin of 921. But we know that the GOP only has a 798-ballot edge.

Still, as the quoted material makes plain, there's a lot of time for more absentees to come in, and thus plenty of room for these numbers to wiggle. Hang on to your hats.

(Hat-tip: Shinigami)

DavidNYC :: NY-20: About Those Absentees...
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NY
Looks to me like Tedisco will likely squeek out a 100 vote or so victory.

29/D/Male/NY-01

I don't think we can really say that
Going by the current absentees, there's a decent chance that they are the same representative pool of voters in the district as votes already counted, depending on turnout from each party yesterday. My guess would be that a significant number of Republicans voted for Murphy and that could be the same with the absentees.

[ Parent ]
It would be hard to imagine Republicans were the only ones who chose to stay home today.
Lots of crossover voters for Murphy.  Gotta hope a lot of those same crossovers voted absentee.  

[ Parent ]
What's your math on that? (eom)


[ Parent ]
I thought he was gonna win in a walk
isn't that what you said?

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
Didnt you say Tedisco would win by over 10%?
If so, your saying that Tedisco will win the absentees is great news...for Murphy!

Clown.


[ Parent ]
Pls ignore the Tekzilla...really
he's just here to piss out metadata and hope you guys waste your time responding to him.  

Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  


[ Parent ]
"Piss out metadata"
You can get medication at the free clinic that will clear that right up!

[ Parent ]
let's see tekzilla
you predicted that tedisco would win by 10% two days ago.  you said, and i quote, "stick a fork in it," when tedisco had a small lead at 10pm last night and today you're the first one on this thread to predict a tedisco win after the absentee ballots are counted.

what's going on?  are you ok?

when i'm wrong (i think the last time was '77 or maybe it was '78:) i at least keep my mouth shut for awhile and  hope people forget about my foolishness before i open my mouth again.


[ Parent ]
NY
Hey guys believe me, I hope I'm wrong, but I just cant see Murphy winning crossovers in Absentees the way he did on Election Day.

I'm just incredibly pessimistic due to the horrible run in special elections we've had since November.  It's almost like they country has already reverted back to 2004 already.  The party is just showing no push, no oomph, no real fundraising strength, nothing.  And obviously our turnout machine yesterday wasn't very good as Murphy had all the momentum and only came out ahead by 60 some odd votes.  The state of our party and efforts right now makes me extremely pessimistic.

29/D/Male/NY-01


[ Parent ]
Huh?
There were three run-off elections, in one of them (LA-02) the incumbent was being investigated for bribery  one was in a normally Republican district (LA-04) which Obama lost by 19 points and one was GA-Sen where we simply had a third-tier candidate who got very little outside help from the DSCC and the DNC (whereas Chambliss got a whole hell lot of help from the NRSC and the RNC).

And how was the turnout machine "not good" anyways? Getting a turnout of 150,000 in a special election in an off-year means that both sides had extraordinarily good GOTV operations.

But then again we're all DOOOOOOOMED!!!  

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
Did you feel the same way in '07 when we lost three vaguely competitive special elections in GA-10, OH-05, and VA-01?


Male, 23, DC-At Large

[ Parent ]
i did feel bad about us being beaten 57-43 in OH-05
and not really contesting VA-01 much.

Wasn't around for GA-10, though.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


[ Parent ]
Tekzilla Strike Again
Image Hosted by ImageShack.us


[ Parent ]
Woo hoo!
Still a good chance for a GOP pick up!

A cat can have kittens in an oven but that doesn't make them biscuits.

What are you cheering about?
You guys should've won this district by a landslide, the fact that it's this close is a loss for the Republicans in my book.

Either way, if Tedisco pulls this off, he'll almost certainly be the victim of New York's lost congressional district (Democrats are still likely to hold the trifecta for redistricting). And how much did the NRCC and the RNC pay for that?

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
NRCC and RNC spent probably as much money for it as the DCCC and DNC
So that point is rather void, don't you think?  

[ Parent ]
Not quite
The NRCC and RNC definitely did outspend the Dem party committees for this race by a decent margin. Unions helped pick up the slack a bit for Team Blue, but the GOP overall spent more resources on heavy artillery here.

[ Parent ]
We also have more money to spend then them
so an eye for an eye is a victory for us.

[ Parent ]
Actually, Jeremiah.....
I read somewhere that the Republican Party committees doled out somewhere on the order of $500K more than the Democratic committees.

So, no, it's not entirely a moot point.

"You share your young with the wolves of the nation, there's nothing left til you pray for salvation."

--Black Rebel Motorcycle Club

"American X"


[ Parent ]
I think
It just clearly shows that no, the district isnt soild Republican like it once was. It was even won by President Obama. Gillibrand won in a landslide. Another close election when its open. The only reason Tedisco was so far ahead in early polling was because Murphy was a nobody, an unknown. Tedisco never gained any ground in polling since the first polls.


A cat can have kittens in an oven but that doesn't make them biscuits.

[ Parent ]
I agree
In terms of Tedisco still having a chance to win it means the opportunity is still there for the GOP to pick up a seat but the outcome certainly doesn't give them anything to crow about in the hope of getting the other 39.

[ Parent ]
Oh I agree
That this certainly shouldnt give the GOP alot of hope for the 2010 elections. The GOP is still in the wilderness. Still overall lost, without a major independent theam. If they go5t their act together I think its possible we could have a decent, though likely not majoprity winning gains in 2010. But thats IF they can, and they havent.

A cat can have kittens in an oven but that doesn't make them biscuits.

[ Parent ]
But if districts like this are no longer solid Republican.
That means the past couple elections weren't aberrations, but a realignment.  Which means y'all are screwed.

[ Parent ]
Well, it depends.
How long do you think it'll take to turn a Republican base activist from a freeper into a Kyle?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
The freepers can marginalize themselves.
That's probably a good thing for the Democratic Party, if not necessarily a social democratic agenda.

[ Parent ]
Freeper
What is a Freeper?  

A cat can have kittens in an oven but that doesn't make them biscuits.

[ Parent ]
Even you might need a shower after visiting
[ Parent ]
I dont think
You can blanket entire districts with that standard. Districts move away and towards different parties at different times. The northeast esp has been moving away from the GOP, not just in the last two elections, but in for awhile now. Voter registration only tells a small part of the picture when looking at a district. Isnt OK something like 66% registered Democrat?

A cat can have kittens in an oven but that doesn't make them biscuits.

[ Parent ]
4 years ago...
Bush won the district by 8%.  Y'all had an experienced legislative leader with deep roots in the most populous county in the district, and a neophyte fought him to a draw.

It's true that the Republican party is waning the Northeast, but this is one of the most Republican districts in the region.  If y'all are going to write this seat off, it's hard to see how you chart a path back to a majority.

What I'm basically saying is that if the dynamics surrounding this election hold until November of next year, I'll be very satisfied.


[ Parent ]
Dissenting Opinion
I'm not too sure of the argument that Tedisco was a much superior candidate to Murphy.  That strikes me as more spin than substance.  Tedisco certainly started as a much more known candidate.  But, is being a career politician really that much of an electoral advantage?  I don't think so.  Also, Tedisco didn't even live in the district and really screwed up by playing Hamlet on the stimulus.  Murphy seemed to have run a good campaign and he had the funds to make himself known to the district.  I'm not of the opinion that Republicans had a much better candidate than we did.

[ Parent ]
And that's my point
The Republicans, by an objective standard, should have won the district without too much trouble:

1. The Republicans had, on paper, a stronger candidate than the Democrats (state House Minority Leader vs. a random venture capitalist).

2. Obama may well have barely won the district, but that doesn't mean that it doesn't still lean Republican (remember that Bush won the district by 8 points in 2004 and by 7 points in 2000). Gillibrand was particularly popular in this district, that's why she won big in 2008 (and you seem to be forgetting that in 2006, Rep. Sweeney, who Gillibrand defeated, had a big scandal involving him allegedly beating his wife right before the election).

3. The NRCC and the RNC were outspending the DNC and DCCC while Tedisco maintained parity with Murphy (despite what others were thinking).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
Tedisco
was still far better known and had a political base of 22 years in the Districts largest city and largest county which showed up to bat for him otherwise he would have lost handily.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
Kyle, Consider This, Though......
It IS true that Obama carried this district. However, it is worth noting that Obama carried the 20th by three points. THREE. That means the district, on a completely even national playing field, should have a GOP advantage of about four points (since Obama won nationally by seven).

The fact that this is (no matter who wins it) a fifty-fifty race means that the much ballyhooed "Republican resurgence" since Obama's inaugural is nonexistent.

"You share your young with the wolves of the nation, there's nothing left til you pray for salvation."

--Black Rebel Motorcycle Club

"American X"


[ Parent ]
You're double-calculating.
A margin is always twice the deviation-from-50%.

Put it this way, a three-point margin would be Obama 51.5 McCain 48.5.  The national margin was a seven-point margin (I thought it was six, but let's use your numbers) of Obama 53.5 McCain 46.5.  This means that the district is R+2, not R+4, based on subtracting 53.5 from 51.5 and getting D-2 (or thus R+2).

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


[ Parent ]
Final national popular vote tally
Obama 52.87%
McCain 45.61%

However you round it the final margin is Obama by 7.


[ Parent ]
NY-20 Has a R+2.5 SPVI
http://www.swingstateproject.c...

I think the fairest way to describe the district is slightly more Republican than the nation as a whole.  But, the nation as a whole is slightly more Democratic right now than it is Republican.  Thus, R+2.5 districts should be toss ups, which is exactly what this race confirms.  To the extent you can judge national mood by a single special election (which I don't think you really can), this race suggests nothing much has changed since November 2008.


[ Parent ]
so those AB numbers only cover 7 of 10 counties.
It would be nice to know which 3 are the non-responsive counties. And get the break down of those 5,906 by county as well.  Then more meaningful projections will be possible.

Or . . .
They could all just be tabulated.

NOW! I'm awake and have nothing better to do, I know how to count and add. I'll do it!!!

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26


[ Parent ]
Seems Like the Best Method Is to Compare to Obama's Numbers
Seems like the best method of predicting how the absentee ballots will break is to look at how the absentee ballots broke in the presidential election.  Murphy ran about 2 points behind Obama.  If we assume Murphy will run about 2 points behind Obama's numbers and Murphy needs about 49.5% of absentee ballots to prevail, then we would need Obama to have received about 51-52% of absentee ballots.  These are some rough numbers.  But, if Obama got 55% of absentee ballots, I'd feel real good about Murhpy's chances.  If Obama got 45% of absentee ballots, then I'd be pretty pessimistic.

Anyone know or know how to determine Obama's numbers in NY-20 from absentee (and provisionals too I suppose) ballots only?


[ Parent ]
Good grief
"Don't let the Democrats steal this election. Less than 80 ballots separate Republican Jim Tedisco and his Democrat opponent," read a National Republican Congressional Committee fundraising email sent not long after the last precinct reported Tuesday. "We need your support to ensure we can overcome the Democrats' legal maneuvers. Democrats have almost succeeded in stealing the election in Minnesota and seating Al Franken. We cannot allow them to manipulate electoral results to seat another tax-troubled liberal."

http://www.politico.com/news/s...

I continue to believe the result here means relatively little but the desperate GOP spin is always amusing. Same old shit!


Franken
If Tedesco does come out on top, House Dems should not seat him until Republicans in the senate agree to seat Franken.

[ Parent ]
I agree
we horse trade Tedisco for Franken.  

[ Parent ]
Not really the same
Tedisco is not as important to the GOP as Franken. With Franken the Dems are 1 seat shy of the filibuster but with Tedisco the GOP is still looking at a 39 seat deficit.

Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  


[ Parent ]
Which is exactly why we should work so very hard to make this the deal : )


Male, 23, DC-At Large

[ Parent ]
No thanks
We are probably going to win both races.  No deals, both seats are ours  if it takes an extra month or so to realize that so be it.

[ Parent ]
I just mean in the eventuality that Tedisco ultimately carries the absentees
I'm all for dragging it out for as many months as possible.  But its undeniable that we have ourselves a bargaining chip now.

Male, 23, DC-At Large

[ Parent ]
No we don't
If someone were to present this to the Republicans, they'd just laugh for a few minutes before walking away. There are plenty of circumstances in the Senate where one vote makes or breaks ultimate passage, but in the House there is no way that the winner of the NY-20 seat is going to matter for any legislation (its sole purpose was really bragging rights for either party, and that's pretty much not an issue at the moment).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
Whenever they can get it, they really want this symbolic victory
And they know that Coleman's dead meat.  At this point NY-20's close enough that we can pull out all the same stops they did in Minnesota as far as legal challenges go. Or we can gracefully bow out if, after all the absentees are counted to our satisfaction, Tedisco's in the lead.  The choice is up to them.

Male, 23, DC-At Large

[ Parent ]
It still doesn't matter
The symbolic nature of this race is gone once it enters the legal realm, neither the DNC, the RNC, the NRCC, nor the DCCC will spend any significant money to go all the way through the legal process for this, it'd be a waste of time, effort, and money. There is no more symbolism to be won on this race, and the Republicans already know that and they know that the Democrats know that.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
Just a Reminder
As I've said all along, this election was totally unnecessary.  You can thank soon to be ex-Governor Paterson for the loss of a House seat if Tedisco ends up winning.

whatever, doesn't matter
the house seat will be gone in two years or made more Democratic and Tedisco might not hold on for long.

Hmm, at least though New York now has a strong, talented, and energetic Senator who knows how to deal with the media and get things done and who isn't a dynasty candidate.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus


[ Parent ]
I'm not convinced the seat's going away
Changing for sure, but the big population losses were in the Western part of the state.  That's where the seat loss will be.  Maybe if NY loses two seats, they might look at carving up the 20th.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

[ Parent ]
From First Read...
"A top White House official tells us that the model shows they'll win the absentees. "

Anybody want to speculate what that might mean or is this just bluster?


Well...
Maybe Nate is on their payroll?  

[ Parent ]
Didn't Nate suck at predicting the Oscars?
I heard something like that.  He even went on TV before the Oscars were broadcast, but I remember reading somewhere that he was way off.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Yes
Well not way off I don't think.  He was wrong on some though.  Notably picking Rourke (The Wrestler) for Best Actor.  Sean Penn (Milk) actually won that one.  But the ones he missed were pretty much surprises to everyone.  There really is no accurate way of projecting something like the Oscars.

[ Parent ]
What about projecting things like election results?
:P

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
He's very good at that


[ Parent ]
Speculation
Maybe they're comparing to Obama's performance among absentees in NY-20.

[ Parent ]
Does anyone know...
what portion of the absentees are military versus non-military?  Seems to me that's the critical distinction.


Approximately 20%
1300ish are military out of 6900ish (5900 as of yesterday with approx another 1000 coming in).

Check here: http://www.thealbanyproject.co...


[ Parent ]
That's Overseas
The 1300 or so estimate there is for overseas absentee ballots, which includes both military and civilian overseas voters.  I've read somewhere that the majority of overseas ballots are military, but certainly not all of them.

[ Parent ]
Useless numbers
The registration margin is fairly meaningless, without knowing who turned out on election day.  If Democrats were more likely to show up on election day than Republicans were the absentee ballots could be a more GOP heavy sample than the actual voters.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

Dem projection says Murphy will win by about 200 votes
Sounds reasonable
I'm interested to hear what Nate Silver's projection is.  I'm sure he'll have one out by the end of the day.

[ Parent ]
I dunno...
after reading the latest on the Albany project (link a few comments above) it seems silly to attempt a projection given the affidavit ballots and absentees. It's impossible to even gauge how many absentees will come in let alone how they will go.  

[ Parent ]
The takeaway from the writeup...
... is that the absentees/militaries from Saratoga look to be light.  Given that Murphy did well almost everywhere else, that looks like good news.

[ Parent ]
I guarantee you that the affidavit ballots are mostly Dem,
goddamn republicans and their shenanigans. Unfortunately most of them will be thrown out on a technicality.

No idea how the absentees will go though.


[ Parent ]
Spin
That reads like spin to me.  It assumes that absentee voters from a particular county will vote in the exact same percentages for Murphy and Tedisco as regular voters from those counties.  That's a highly questionable assumption.

[ Parent ]
I'll believe it
Only is the NRCC doesn't come out with their own similarly optimistic prediction.

[ Parent ]
Does anyone know the quality of PolitickerNY?
Albany Project links to them, but it definitely seems to me based on their coverage that they're tighter with the Tedisco camp than Murphy's.

Apparently Tedisco's people are now saying that they got corrected numbers from Columbia Co. and that they've cut Murphy's lead down to 25 votes.

http://www.politickerny.com/28...

Male, 23, DC-At Large


AP confirms it
Damn.

[ Parent ]

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