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CA-Sen, RI-Gov: Arnold's Out, Chafee's In

by: Crisitunity

Thu Mar 26, 2009 at 2:55 PM EDT


Kind of a strange mash-up of topics in one post, but I think it makes sense, as sort of a roundup of Republican moderates in the news. On the one hand, you have a governor thinking about a senate seat and on the other hand you have an ex-senator thinking about a governor's seat.

"The point was that I am not running for anything, so no one could threaten me, because I'm not running for Senate, I'm not running for Congress, I'm not running for another term as governor," Schwarzenegger said.

Arnold Schwarzenegger gave his Shermanesque statement to the Sacramento Bee today, in the context of defending unpopular policy choices he seems about to make (probably involving tax hikes). This leaves Barbara Boxer with a pretty clear road to re-election (not that Arnold posed much of a threat anyway).

As Lincoln Chafee celebrates his 56th birthday today, a source tells WRNI that he has decided to run for governor in 2010, and will soon begin to assemble a campaign organization.

On the other hand, Lincoln Chafee seems ready to officially jump into the Rhode Island governor's race as an independent, according to WRNI. As we discussed last week, both the Dem and GOP fields are unsettled right now as likely frontrunners David Ciccilline (for the Dems) and Steve Laffey (for the GOP) both bowed out... so this may actually begin with Chafee in the driver's seat.

UPDATE (DavidNYC): With Arnold saying hasta la vista, baby to a senatorial run, we're taking CA-Sen off of our Races to Watch list.

Crisitunity :: CA-Sen, RI-Gov: Arnold's Out, Chafee's In
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Ciccilline's out...
of the race that is. Isn't it the AG who is the Dem front-runner?

I don't think
anybody can claim to be the Democratic frontrunner at this point with Ciccilline out. Treasurer Frank Caprio at least seems to have a fundraising edge. The AG (Patrick Lynch) and Lt. Gov. (Elizabeth Roberts) are also sizing it up.

[ Parent ]
Going to be an interesting race in RI
Can Chafee clear 33% with a strong Democrat in the race?  Republicans hate him, and Democrats backed one of their own the last time he was on the ballot.

Now this is some polling I'd love to see.


My guess is yes
Democrats voted him out because he caucused with republicans, and for no other reason.  Ideologically Chafee is a good fit for the state, and I'll bet he wins as an independent.

[ Parent ]
Might even be further left
Chafee might even be further than the Dems running.  He lost in 06 because of the R next to his name and no other reason.  I think he would have a very good shot at 35-40% of the vote, in a 3-way race.

[ Parent ]
Absolutely.
There's all the difference in the world between running for US Senate vs. running for Governor.  Vermont and Connecticut -- two of the bluest states in the bluest region of the country -- both have Republican governors, who have successfully fought for reelection and won.  Chafee is more liberal than either of those two and his name is still legendary in Rhode Island.  I would put money on him winning this one.

[ Parent ]
Up until recently
the GOP had Massachusetts, New York, Maryland, and New Hampshire as well.  There was a very strange pattern of Republican governors in very blue states, up until recently when Democrats started taking them back.

[ Parent ]
Goes both ways
Oklahoma, Wyoming, Kansas, Tennessee, etc. won't send Democrats to D.C. but they will send one to the state capital as their Governor.

[ Parent ]
And now it looks like it's correcting itself
It is very likely we lose the governorships of Wyoming, Kansas, and Tennessee (we may hold Oklahoma given our strong candidates but it will be tough).  And we are favored to take back governorships in California, Hawaii, and I would have said Rhode Island too except there's a good chance Chafee takes it.

Once Douglas retires in Vermont and Rell retires in Connecticut, I don't see how we fail to get those back either.


[ Parent ]
Douglas may get a forced retirement
If he goes ahead and vetoes the marriage equality bill my guess if the Dems and Progressive Party of VT finally unite around one candidate in 2010 and defeat Douglas if he runs for re-election.  Havn't seen any polls yet, but I'm guessing in a state like Vermont there is a lot of support for the bill.

You are right about the trends though.  2002 produced a lot of new Governor's from the minority parties of their state.  2010 is likely to be a self-correcting year since most of those Governor's are term-limited.


[ Parent ]
Douglas
Even if Douglas did support it i wonder if a third party conservative candidate would run and cost him alot of votes. Im sure even in Vermont theres alot of conservatives.

[ Parent ]
Every state has some
There's probably a floor of 15-20% of voters in every state who are crazy right-wing conservatives, just as there are as many far-left liberals in every state.

Still, it's no coincidence that New Hampshire and Vermont appear to be leading the way on FULL marriage equality.  Those two states hve by far the highest % of "non-religious" residents of any state in the U.S. according to that recent extensive study done on religion in America.


[ Parent ]
Vermont's conservatives
had been regulated to two areas of the state...the northeast corner in Essex County and around Rutland.

Interesting that Essex County, the only one in the state to go for Bush in 2004 went overwhelmingly for Obama.

Also, Vermont's conservatives are really more in the fiscal mode than in the social mode. There are very few social conservatives in that state. The Republican Party is very fiscally conservative. They're not even very hawkish either.

Vermont's politics is a lot like Canada.


Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens


[ Parent ]
Re Schwarzenegger - Too bad
I was kind of looking forward to Ahhnold being humiliated in the election by diminutive Barbara Boxer (4'11" if Wikipedia is correct).  

Also
His staying in politics a bit longer would prevent him from making any more garbage movies in the near future, a relief to all movie lovers.

[ Parent ]
I love Scharzneggers movies
i love mindlessly watching movies, they are fun to watch over and over again. Total Recall, The Running Man, Terminator, come on!

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
Barbara Mikuski is 4' 11"
I thought Boxer was a little taller than that.

[ Parent ]
Barb is short only in stature
In pure meanness she's easily 7 feet tall.  She reminds me of the type of lady who would beat the crap out of someone who tried to mug her and then rob them.  

Just ask Sununu how it feels to cross her.


[ Parent ]
Clarification
When'd he cross her?  (I realize I'm totally ruining the flow of the humor here, but I tend to do that a lot.)

[ Parent ]
Here you go
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

Late last year Mikulski brought up consideration of an auto sales tax deduction bill on the floor of th Senate.  Sununu objected just to be a dick and "it was on."  Mikulski went off on Sununu for a good 5 minutes plus.


[ Parent ]
Piss and vinegar
Man, I'll miss that fire whenever she decides it's time to close up shop.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

[ Parent ]
I'm not running for anything... until you change the Constitution."
He actually said it

http://www.latimes.com/news/lo...


[ Parent ]

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