Premium Sponsor

Featured Sponsor

Our Sponsors

Ad Networks

Buy an ad on all of the top liberal blogs with just one click.

Site Stats

Congressional Underperformers

by: DavidNYC

Mon Mar 23, 2009 at 8:00 AM EDT

Now that we have complete presidential results by CD for the entire nation, we can take a look at how members of Congress fared compared to the top of the ticket in each district. The vast majority of Congressmen and women typically perform better than their party's presidential candidates. The reasons for this are plain: Most members don't face serious challenges, and individual Congresscritters can tailor their politics to suit their CDs far better than any presidential office-seeker, who (in theory, at least) has to appeal nation-wide.

Some Congressmembers, however, invariably run behind the ticket. First up are the laggard Republicans:

State	CD	Member	Party	GOPer Margin	McCain Margin	Difference
WY	AL	Lummis	(R)	10	32	-22
LA	4	Fleming	(R)	0	19	-19
KY	2	Guthrie	(R)	5	23	-18
AK	AL	Young	(R)	5	21	-16
LA	1	Scalise	(R)	31	47	-16
NC	10	McHenry	(R)	15	27	-12
OH	2	Schmidt	(R)	7	19	-12
SC	1	Brown	(R)	4	15	-11
CA	4	McClintock	(R)	0	10	-10
TX	22	Olson	(R)	7	17	-10
KS	2	Jenkins	(R)	4	12	-8
LA	6	Cassidy	(R)	8	16	-8
MO	9	Luetkemeyer	(R)	3	11	-8
NC	5	Foxx	(R)	17	23	-6
AL	3	Rogers	(R)	8	13	-5
MN	6	Bachmann	(R)	3	8	-5
AL	4	Aderholt	(R)	50	53	-3
AZ	3	Shadegg	(R)	12	15	-3
TX	7	Culberson	(R)	14	17	-3
GA	10	Broun	(R)	21	23	-2
AZ	2	Franks	(R)	22	23	-1
SC	2	Wilson	(R)	8	9	-1
UT	3	Chaffetz	(R)	37	38	-1

Most of the folks on this list are freshmen who are almost all certain to do much better in 2010. A handful of others are in extremely red districts to begin with, making any difference between their performance and McCain's mostly a matter of minor noise.

Some, however, stand out for reasons all their own, and their underperformance signals a weakness which could potentially be exploited (again). They include the ethically plagued Don Young, the hapless Patrick McHenry, the well-hated Jean Schmidt, the befuddled Henry Brown, the batshit Virginia Foxx, the caught-napping Mike Rogers, and the loose-lipped Michele Bachmann. While all sit in red districts of varying difficulty, each could be vulnerable (particularly Brown and Rogers, I feel).

Now for the Democratic list:

State	CD	Member	Party	Dem Margin	Obama Margin	Difference
CT	4	Himes	(D)	4	20	-16
MI	13	Kilpatrick	(D)	55	70	-15
IN	7	Carson	(D)	30	43	-13
ME	1	Pingree	(D)	10	23	-13
PA	11	Kanjorski	(D)	3	15	-12
CA	8	Pelosi	(D)	62	73	-11
NM	1	Heinrich	(D)	11	20	-9
OH	15	Kilroy	(D)	1	9	-8
NV	3	Titus	(D)	5	12	-7
CA	6	Woolsey	(D)	48	54	-6
IL	7	Davis	(D)	70	76	-6
NY	15	Rangel	(D)	81	87	-6
OH	1	Driehaus	(D)	5	11	-6
GA	13	Scott	(D)	38	43	-5
MI	7	Schauer	(D)	2	6	-4
MI	9	Peters	(D)	9	13	-4
IA	2	Loebsack	(D)	19	22	-3
IL	4	Gutierrez	(D)	69	72	-3
VA	11	Connolly	(D)	12	15	-3
CA	9	Lee	(D)	76	78	-2
CO	1	DeGette	(D)	48	50	-2
FL	8	Grayson	(D)	4	6	-2
FL	23	Hastings	(D)	64	66	-2
IL	1	Rush	(D)	72	74	-2
OH	10	Kucinich	(D)	18	20	-2
PA	2	Fattah	(D)	78	80	-2
WA	7	McDermott	(D)	67	69	-2
CA	35	Waters	(D)	69	70	-1
CO	2	Polis	(D)	29	30	-1
IL	2	Jackson	(D)	79	80	-1
MN	5	Ellison	(D)	49	50	-1
NJ	3	Adler	(D)	4	5	-1
OH	11	Fudge	(D)	70	71	-1
VA	8	Moran	(D)	38	39	-1
WI	8	Kagen	(D)	8	9	-1

Once again, the vast majority here are freshmen. There are also quite a few more folks in absurdly blue districts (much bluer than the most Republican districts are red). A few stand out as potentially more than just noise, though. Nancy Pelosi puts in a token appearance here - obviously you're going to take a few dings if you're the party leader, but not quite enough for us to be welcoming Congresswoman Sheehan as our new overlord.

~~Anyhow, I wouldn't be surprised if Artur Davis's long-manifest desire to run for higher office hurt him with the folks at home.~~ (UPDATE: It was Danny Davis in IL-07, not Artur Davis in AL-07.) Meanwhile, Lynn Woolsey's outspoken, er, leadership of the Progressive Caucus might be chafing at her favorability ratings. Charlie Rangel, of course, endured tons of bad press thanks to his tax problems. And David Scott had to face down all kinds of bullshit from Deborah "The Defrauder" Honeycutt. None of these seats, of course, could ever turn red (is Anh Cao laughing at me as I say this?) - it's just that their current inhabitants had (and in some cases still have) varying "issues" in front of them.

As for more serious situations, it's no surprise to see Paul Kanjorski on this list. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick also has a featured spot, thanks undoubtedly to the serious primary challenge she got last year and her bellicose defense of her disgraced son Kwame (the ex-mayor of Detroit). I wouldn't be surprised if she got primaried again. Otherwise, I don't see too many vulnerable Dem veterans on this list - but Kanjorski and Kilpatrick seriously need to consider retirement.

UPDATE: Himes's margin of victory was actually four points, not one - I had failed to include the votes he got on the Working Families Party line.

DavidNYC :: Congressional Underperformers

Tags: Congress, Presidential Results by CD, (All Tags)

Print Friendly View

Send As Email

Congressional Underperformers | 30 comments

Artur Davis??

I'm fairly certain he's not on the list. Presumably the IL-7 Davis refers to Danny Davis. Artur Davis was unopposed both this year and in 2006.

by: Marcus @ Mon Mar 23, 2009 at 07:43:04 AM CDT

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Yep,

Repubs haven't challenged Davis in the last couple of cycles. No need to take a shot at him.

by: zac @ Mon Mar 23, 2009 at 11:25:37 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

It was my error (eom)

by: DavidNYC @ Mon Mar 23, 2009 at 13:03:45 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Jebus.

This is what I get for writing late at night. IL-07, AL-07... sigh.

by: DavidNYC @ Mon Mar 23, 2009 at 12:48:50 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

And both represented

by guys named Davis. That's confusing.

by: TDDVandy @ Mon Mar 23, 2009 at 14:14:35 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

LA 4?

Should that really be included since Fleming was elected in a much lower-turnout vote when McCain and Obama weren't on the ballot?

And I love seeing that 0 by McClintock. Can't wait until we get to contest that seat again.

by: armand @ Mon Mar 23, 2009 at 08:12:09 AM CDT

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Cheeks-Kilpatrick

She's a lot stronger than you'd think. She would have been unseated in August but she did a very savvy thing and paid Martha Scott to run against her. With the anti-Kilpatrick vote split between Mary Waters and Scott Kilpatrick won.

It would be nice if she'd fade quietly away, but she's here to stay. Her biggest challenge will be in 2012, when we're re-districting. Detroit won't have enough people to be the core of two districts the way it is now, so Conyers and Kilpatrick will almost certainly be put into a single district and be forced to run against each-other.

by: Detroit Skeptic @ Mon Mar 23, 2009 at 09:22:44 AM CDT

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Yes, that was a savvy move

But it was done from weakness, not strength. In a one-on-one, Kilpatrick would be a lot more vulnerable.

by: DavidNYC @ Mon Mar 23, 2009 at 12:51:43 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Reminds me of Blue Dog Lipinski in IL (n/t)

by: JimM @ Mon Mar 23, 2009 at 13:16:27 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Peters and Schauer

Besides being freshmen, I wonder how much of Peters and Schauer's underperformance is because John McCain pulled out of Michigan early. Or, rather, not that they necessarily underperformed, but Obama overperformed for what should be expected in Michigan. I think that Obama's win in Michigan-- especially in rural areas like MI-07-- was a lot bigger than it would have been if there had been an active McCain operation up to Election Day.

But like you said, if they can hold them in 2010, as incumbents the margin will be bigger.

by: Fitzy @ Mon Mar 23, 2009 at 10:16:12 AM CDT

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Patrick McHenry

I'd use a lot of terms to describe Patrick McHenry but "hapless" would not be one of them. The man is one of the most dangerous figures in the Republican Party and , heaven help us, barring a long stretch of Democratic dominance a la 1932-94 he is likely to become Speaker one day.

McHenry is an ideologue. He deliberately and loudly votes against his district to show he's with the leadership (credit unions vote). He is overly ambitious. He's a twerp with no connection to the real world. And it is working. Perhaps not so much as at the start but he is moving up the ladder. Cough cough.

by: David Kowalski @ Mon Mar 23, 2009 at 10:47:55 AM CDT

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Leadership?

Extremely unlikely for McHenry. The GOP won't want him in a position that important given there's a good chance it would push his badly kept "secret" from becoming much less of a secret. Larry Flynt and company would have every detail of his hypocritical life all over the mainstream news in no time.

by: ChadInFL @ Mon Mar 23, 2009 at 11:01:59 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Leadership

He wants it bad. His whole life has been dedicated to getting position in Congress including moving into a "good" congressional district right after college.

Unlike you I don't know of any scandal but many Republicans seem immune to scandal (see Vitter, David). Spit it out. Is he gay? Does he have mistresses? Onquiring mninds need to know.

At best, we have David Dreier II, somebody destined for leadership whose personal life precludes it.

The man is extremely dangerous. He'd be a hard right ideologue running the House with an iron hand and expecting that the needs of constituents should be ostentatiously ignored to the cheers of the leadership team.

by: David Kowalski @ Mon Mar 23, 2009 at 12:46:27 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

He's gay.

Very gay.

by: James L. @ Mon Mar 23, 2009 at 12:50:11 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I might have taken your description

And applied it to someone like Adam Putnam. But I don't think a lot of people take McHenry all that seriously. He did abysmally against a nobody in a primary last year, undperformed in the fall, really fucked up with his Iraq trip, and well... just watch him get schooled in this video.

by: DavidNYC @ Mon Mar 23, 2009 at 12:54:44 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

DeLay's trio

Fwiw, Tom DeLay named three Republicans in the House as the most likely to be the next DeLay: Mike Pence, Adam Putnam, and Patrick McHenry. I still think he's a very dangerous dude, even wounded. If we can take hime out we should.

by: David Kowalski @ Mon Mar 23, 2009 at 14:16:30 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Putnam was leadership track

Pence is very clever, very influential amongst the base and with the likes of Limbaugh and liable to take down any wounded Republican leadership figure.

McHenry isn't of that calibre. He's just young and absurdly conservative, with none of the political adeptness of the other two.

by: Englishlefty @ Mon Mar 23, 2009 at 15:12:15 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

On Michigan

I'd have to imagine that McCain's big "fuck you" to the state was part of the reason why some Democrats underperformed Obama (though you are absolutely correct about Kirkpatrick)

Your go-to source for great sarcasm

by: DGM @ Mon Mar 23, 2009 at 10:56:18 AM CDT

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Agreed

Although i think his troubles all began during the primary when he stated (although...perhaps truthfully) that the auto jobs just arent coming back. He was trying to be the 'John McCain of 2000' where he speaks 'plainly' but sometimes brutal honesty...isnt whats best for you politically.

by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Mon Mar 23, 2009 at 12:27:12 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Repeaters from 2004

In 2004 a similar list contained 31 Republicans who ran behind Bush and 12 Democrats who ran behind Kerry.

Three Republicans were on this list in both 2004 and 2008: Patrick McHenry, Virginia Foxx, and Culberson of TX-7. In addition, three congressional districts make it in both years for the Republicans (TX-22, MN-6, UT-3). Charles Taylor, Marilyn Musgrave, Hostetler, and Sodrel are off the list because they lost and the seats are held by Democrats. Mark Kennedy and Tom Tancredo lost running for higher office.

Moran, Pelosi, Barbara Lee, Ellison and Cheeks-Kilpatrick appear on both the 2004 and 2008 lists. Ellison's margin is far smaller than in 2004. Pelosi has been singled out for national level abuse by Republicans. In 2008 the independent Sheehan ran ahead of the Republican in her district.

by: David Kowalski @ Mon Mar 23, 2009 at 11:30:53 AM CDT

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Carson

Was no surprise to see Carson on there, either. But unless hes just really, really disliked back home I cant see him being knocked off. How unreal is it, though, that the late congresswoman almost lost her seat in a district that only 2 years later went for Obama by 43. And she wasnt even corrupt at all.

by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Mon Mar 23, 2009 at 12:33:22 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Well Bush got 43 and 42 percent

in 2000 and 2004. Until this year it was in the realm of possibility for the Repubs. Had this been an open seat in 2002 or 2004, they might have won it.

by: IHateBush @ Mon Mar 23, 2009 at 13:11:13 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

It's not majority-black

The district is only 29.4% black. I imagine (especially given that he's a black Muslim) that he runs into the same sorts of problems that Keith Ellison does in his district, but in neither case are there enough voters like that for a Republican to win.

by: TDDVandy @ Mon Mar 23, 2009 at 14:18:15 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

He really downplays the fact that he's Muslim

I wouldn't be suprised if a lot of people here in Indy don't even know he's Muslim, as he's far less vocal about it than Keith Ellison -- or maybe "vocal" isn't the right word, but Ellison seems to involve himself with the national Muslim community a lot more than Andre does. And Indy has a significantly larger African-American Muslim community than Minneapolis does (although if you count Somalis, Minneapolis might have more Muslims).

As I've said before, I was very skeptical about Andre (and I'm someone that absolutely adored his grandmother), and didn't really like the way he was handed the seat -- but have been very impressed with the job he's done so far, and look forward to being his constituent for years to come.

by: IndianaProgressive @ Mon Mar 23, 2009 at 17:08:18 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Why isn't Murtha somewhere on here?

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Mon Mar 23, 2009 at 15:38:07 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Murtha outperformed Obama

Obama actually lost the 12th by a few points while Murtha won by a decent margin.

Though I am surprised Kanjorski isn't on the list.

by: ChadInFL @ Mon Mar 23, 2009 at 15:44:30 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Kanjorski

If local boy Biden wasnt on the ticket i wonder if Obama would have carried it by less than 10.

by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Mon Mar 23, 2009 at 15:47:08 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Biden was a smart pick

It stabilized a key(stone) state, but without picking someone from that state, thus gaining the benefits of regional politicking without appearing to be pandering.

by: Marcus @ Wed Mar 25, 2009 at 21:42:31 PM CDT

[ Parent ]