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NH-Sen: Hodes Narrowly Leads Sununu and Bass, CSP Competitive

by: James L.

Wed Feb 11, 2009 at 6:13 PM EST

Public Policy Polling (2/6-8, registered voters):

Paul Hodes (D): 40
Charlie Bass (R): 37

Paul Hodes (D): 46
John Sununu (R): 44

Carol Shea-Porter (D): 42
Charlie Bass (R): 43

Carol Shea-Porter (D): 45
John Sununu (R): 46
(MoE: ±2.7%)

While all the matchups tested here by our friends at PPP are well within the margin of error, Hodes starts off the 2010 Senate race in the best shape -- indeed, he even has more room to grow than Shea-Porter does. A full 24% of voters have no opinion of Hodes, while only 17% of voters don't know enough about CSP to give an opinion.

Sununu has near-universal name recognition, which is hardly a surprise given his recent humiliating defeat at the polls, but that suggests that his numbers here may be something of a high water mark. Bass, on the other hand, has the least name recognition of the bunch, and those who do know him don't seem to care for him all that much -- his favorability score clocks in at 33-37. I'd be pretty surprised if the Bassmaster threw his hat into the ring.

James L. :: NH-Sen: Hodes Narrowly Leads Sununu and Bass, CSP Competitive
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if sununu and bass both pass who's left?
bradley?  wouldn't it be hilarious if he lost to CSP on a statewide level?  :P  aside from that, is there anyone else we'd have to worry about?

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

In terms of big names, not really.
Of course, as Liddy Dole could tell you, little-known state senators can be dangerous competition if they play their cards right (though I suspect the GOP will be spreading their cash pretty thinly next cycle, or else will cede races like this to pump money into place where they have better candidates, like Ohio).

[ Parent ]
No shortage of State House members
I know theres no shortage of Republican (and especially Democratic) State House members, thats for damn sure. As theres like a billion seats in their state House. But given that each state House member represents like 5000-10,000 people (i forget the exact number) they sure do have alot of work ahead of them to get name recognition. But maybe a Republican in the state House/Senate leadership would run.

[ Parent ]
I think they vote Reps in differently though.  

[ Parent ]
I hope Sununu runs again.
He is the epitome of why the GOP rule in NH is over. He is an embarrassment to everything libertarian and was probably the ugliest man in Congress save for Phil English.

now come on,
he was rather normal looking. You must have him mixed up with someone else, here's a link to his wikipedia picture.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
Oh my gosh are you serious?
He looks like a child molestor! shudder

[ Parent ]
How Would You Know?
Have you seen child molesters up close and know what they look like? I think he looks quite normal.

Besides, it's not what's outside, but what's inside that counts. Sununu is still a Bushie on the inside.

[ Parent ]
How many child molestors commonly wear business suits?
I mean come on.  Let's not sink that low here.  Have you been on a website that shows you the local sex offenders and their locations?  Sununu's picture would not fit the norm on a website like that.  Get real.  

[ Parent ]
Maybe It Was This Website

Not sure how to search properly. Unless you know a name, you can't just click "Search" and expect 50 people to pop up.

[ Parent ]
Page you linked:
"Search By Location"

State: WI
Zip Code: *****

Bam.  You have a map with 50 dots showing homes, works, etc. of sex offenders.  

[ Parent ]
Let's Wait Until Thursday
Sununu will be the guest on The Daily Show, and let's how Stewart asks such a question and whether Sununu will respond.

[ Parent ]
Is much more attractive than his father.  

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
My prediction.
NHGOP Chair Papa Sununu forces Junior to try once more for Senate.

The BassMaster takes a shot at his granddaddy's legacy - the Governor's office.

birch paper - mostly NH, mostly politics.

I hope Dean is right
and Sununu runs and gets crushed by Hodes. That would be hilarious.  

Hodes would be such a liberal Senator.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
He'll be great
Ya, Lynch would be the easiest win if he ran, but Hodes will be a better Senator by a mile.

[ Parent ]
the fact that Gregg
was willing to take a position in an opposition party's cabinet and basically open his senate up to Democrats after two years makes me think he wasn't intending on running for reelection in 2010 anyway.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

If Porter or Hodes
Had run I think you might be right. But there's no guarantee of that and if Gregg thought he was going to face nominal opposition like he did in 04 I could see him running

[ Parent ]
exactly what I thought.  I think I posted that same sentiment in the comments of some thread on SSP.

[ Parent ]
Senator-to-be Newman
Is it absolutely certain that Bonnie Newman's only going to be a placeholder and nothing more (akin to Kaufman)? Otherwise it's not impossible given her lack of well-defined positions right now to vote smart and liberal enough to stake a place as a viable Republican alternative to Hodes/CSP; she's certainly not too old to do the job for a full term or two.

Pretty Certain
Quickly found this quote:

"Bonnie has assured me she will not run in 2010 and she will not endorse any candidates in 2010," Lynch said at a press conference Tuesday announcing her appointment.

"It's a deal she made with the governor and the Republican Party," said University of New Hampshire provost Bruce Mallory, a confidant of Newman. "And she does seem to enjoy herself best when she's behind the scenes, instead of out in front."

I seem to recall she also personally stated that she was not going to run in 2010, but it's possible I am misremembering.

Of course, even if she did promise not to run in 2010, there's nothing to prevent her from breaking that promise like many pols have done with term limit promises.  But, this one feels as pretty certain that she will not be running again based on all the circumstances.

[ Parent ]
Newman would have significant disadvantages
1.  She clearly said she wouldn't run less than 2 years before the election (the term limits promises are usually made at least 6 years before the election).
2.  If she votes moderately or liberally she won't win a GOP primary.
3.  She needs to start raising bushels of money immediately.  And she won't raise a penny until she decides to run.

I like the polls right now.  Does Sununu have any money left from his last race?

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