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CT-Sen: Simmons Mulling a Run

by: James L.

Mon Feb 09, 2009 at 9:19 PM EST


This would be a pretty big coup for John Cornyn:

Former Rep. Rob Simmons (R-Conn.) is contemplating a challenge to Sen. Chris Dodd (D-Conn.) in 2010, as Republicans appear to be telegraphing that they plan to target the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs chairman for defeat.

National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John Cornyn (Texas) met with Simmons to discuss a potential bid a few weeks ago while the former Congressman was in town for the Republican National Committee winter meeting, according to a knowledgeable source. Simmons, however, has not yet made any commitments to the NRSC.

"Congressman Simmons would be a very strong candidate in this race, particularly when ethics and the economy will be two of the biggest issues in 2010," NRSC spokesman Brian Walsh said. "That said, it's our understanding that he's still examining his options as are other potential candidates."

Simmons, who was knocked off by Democrat Joe Courtney in an extremely close race in 2006, is already testing out some attacks against Dodd:

"I am currently looking around for opportunities to be of service," Simmons said. "As you know, I've got a fairly substantial background in public service and I'm currently just looking around, if you will, exploring possibilities to see what looks good."

Although Simmons was coy about 2010, he touted his service as an aide to former Sens. John Chafee (R-R.I.) and Barry Goldwater (R-Ariz.) as proof of his ability to straddle the spectrum of the Republican Party. Simmons was also fast to criticize Dodd for not foreseeing the economic crisis as chairman of the Banking panel, as well as not disclosing the details of a well-publicized deal he got on a mortgage for his home.

"Sen. Dodd has disappointed a lot of his supporters up here in Connecticut with his activities over the last several years," Simmons said. "He left the state, moved to Iowa, to pursue what turned out to be a frivolous attempt to run for president of the United States of America."

If Simmons goes for it, this race could conceivably get pretty interesting. The latest polling (Quinnipiac, December 2008) hasn't exactly been kind to Dodd the Bod -- his approval rating is limping along at 47-41, and his re-elects are in even worse shape: only 44% say that they'll vote to re-elect the incumbent in 2010, while 47% say that they'll go with someone else.

There's no question that Simmons would have to run one hell of a race in order to win in this bright blue state, but the path for him is available if he decides to take a crack against an incumbent who voters seem to be getting at least somewhat tired of.
James L. :: CT-Sen: Simmons Mulling a Run
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CT-Sen: Simmons Mulling a Run | 42 comments
I hated Simmons
really did because he was actually a solid conservative in a very liberal district that for some reason reelected him. He was the most conservative member Connecticut's congressional delegation, by far, despite all the flack Nancy Johnson received. He even gave a thousand dollars to Tom DeLay's defense fund so he has no room to talk about "ethics" or to criticize Dodd for the Banking Crisis whose roots began more than a decade ago while Dodd has been Chairman for 2 years.

But Connecticut is highly liberal and if there is one thing Dodd is its a prodiguous fundraiser and a strong, experienced campaigner. He will not be caught off guard by Simmons' faux moderacy like Sam Gedjedenson was in 2000. It doesn't hurt that he and Dodd share the same political base, with Dodd having represent his district for three terms in the 1970s, 1974-1980.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

It's Rell or no one
Not terribly worried about Simmons' ability to knock off an institution like Dodd in a state that went by 22 points to Obama.
Rell would lose too
She may be popular as a liberal republican, but I seriously doubt she could convince her solidly liberal state to send even a moderate republican to D.C.  Dodd would beat her handily too.
[ Parent ]
A lot of Republicans
I've spoken to in CT, my dad's home, think that Gov. Rell is exactly what they need right now in Hartford, but that she'd be in over her head in a number of other offices. She's a grandmotherly, caretaker figure for the state after John Rowland's corruption, and they like her right where she is (hence the 40 point win in 2006).

She can't win election to the Senate.  

[ Parent ]
Rell
I'm not even sure why she's still a repub.  She'd be betetr off just switching parties.  I'd support her challenging Lieberman in 2012.  
[ Parent ]
Okay, but did you see Blumenthal
Did you see AG Blumenthal's numbers.  He might be an equally good challenger to Joementum.
[ Parent ]
Simmons
Maybe Simmons is just trying to create political goodwill, amongst the GOP, by taking on Dodd (when no other major Republican would probably) in order to run for Gov. in 2014 should Rell not run. Or a 2012 Senate race should Lieberman not run as an Indy.
Simmons wont win
But its sure helpful to have strong nominees even in races where the GOP is the automatic underdog. I think thats certainly a lession to be gained from the Democrats in 2006 and 2008.

A cat can have kittens in an oven but that doesn't make them biscuits.
2006 and 2008 had great Democratic candidates for a reason
And it is already evident by all the GOP Senate retirements that 2010 will in no way be similar to 2008 or 06 for your party. Obama has between a 60-70% approval rating, something Bush never had in 2005-2008 so don't get your hopes up with a washed up loser like Simmons or a political neophyte like Whitman.

Check out Georgia's best progressive political blog
[ Parent ]
Dont get my hopes up?
How much further can I lower them by my saying Simmons is going to lose? lol.

A cat can have kittens in an oven but that doesn't make them biscuits.
[ Parent ]
You never know
Any given year has a chance, something crazy can happen.  This is why it's a good idea to get the best candidates possible to run in EVERY race.  Even in those races that appear to be longshots.  Then if a wave election or unique situation does happen some of those longshots will actually win.  Seriously, who thought people like Santorum would win early in the 1994 cycle or Jim Webb in 2006?  
[ Parent ]
Conversely
Conversely, guys like Chambliss and McConnell turned out to be weaker than people thought.  If we had had top tier candidates instead of second or third tier guys, then we might have won those seats.  Always recruit your best candidate because you never know how the electoral situation will change and you need to be ready to take advantage of favorable shifts.
[ Parent ]
Then again
Someone like Scott Kleeb would have been far better off keeping his powder dry than running last year.
[ Parent ]
Maybe
But I don't think his running and losing was all that bad for him.  He pulled in what, around 42%?  It's quite impressive considering he was up against one of the most popular politicians in that very red state.

Kleeb should aim for something like state Agriculture Commissioner and work his way up from there.  Thats sort of what Peter Goldmark did in Washington after losing by a good margin in a very conservative WA congressional district in 2006.

[ Parent ]
He got 40%
Under performing Obama by 2%. While it was certainly an uphill race and he should be lauded for taking a chance in a profession where so few are willing to do so. But I don't think his performance in this race was particularly competitive. I think his stock is definitely lower than it was after 06.
[ Parent ]
RE: Johanns and McCain
How many friends does McCain have amongst labor?

Does he have any?

The same cannot be said about Johanns.  When Fahey first got elected in 2001, quite a bit of the campaign activity on his behalf took place in union halls.  Plenty of those labor guys were supporting Johanns a year and a half later.

Johanns has always had that reputation of being more labor friendly, especially for a Republican, and he does have something of a record to back that.

That cuts into the Democratic numbers, especially out there.

He did about what you would have expected, given who he was running against.  That is why guys like Ben Nelson, or even Mike Fahey, don't jump into such races.  They stick to running against Stenberg and Hal Daub, both total bastards.

I don't think Kleeb should be ruled out for the future.  There are plenty of nutcases in the GOP for him to run against.

He needs to get elected somewhere, though.

[ Parent ]
That's what I'm thinking
He needs to aim for some lesser statewide or state legislature race.  I still say running an losing statewide in a high profile race helps him in the long run.  Now he's known statewide, and probably mostly well-liked.    
[ Parent ]
NE-03?
Why didn't he run there again?  Should he run there again in 2010?

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...
[ Parent ]
No he shouldn't
The 3rd district is by far the most republican of the 3 CD's in Nebraska.  He had his best chance there in the open seat race against a Club for Growth nutter.  He lost 55-44 which is friggin amazing considering the district is one of the most republican the nation at R+24.  Doubt he could come any closer now that Adrian Smith is the incumbent.

Too bad Kleeb isn't from the 2nd district.  He would definately have a shot at winning that seat.

[ Parent ]
Thanks for that info,
But when it comes to situations like this often times perception is more important than reality. Kleeb really didn't over perform expectations and after nearly pulling off what would've been the biggest upset of the 06 cycle, I don't know how his stock hasn't fallen.
[ Parent ]
Certainly weak
Both were pretty damn weak, but I'm not sure we didn't do the best with what we had...at least in Georgia.  Unlike many, I don't know if I would have been thrilled to see a Jim Marshall candidacy.  We'd lose that house seat for 20-30 years, methinks, without him in it. Demographics are going to be our only savior.  We did have Thurbert Baker, but would that have worked out better than Martin?  No doubt, though, Kentucky recruitment was a huge disappointment.  I was pulling for Crit Luallen and I hope she pulls the trigger this time.
[ Parent ]
Why?
Serious question here, Kyle:

Exactly why are you a Republican?  

If I recall correctly, I thought I remember you being more socially liberal, and the fact that you are doing quite a bit of posting here shows you cannot be anything of a partisan hack.

There are a number of people here who used to be of that dreaded RINO variety who switched over to the Democratic Party.  They realize that they are not going to live to see the GOP go back to being the party it used to be, where even people like Foglietta could run on their ticket.

Why stay?  Haven't they left you behind enough?

[ Parent ]
Well
From his prior posts it sounded to me like he's anti-choice, though ok with it in extreme cases.  Overall he soundsquite moderate though.  More like an old school Blue Dog Dem than a hardcore republican.  He does live in Washington where Dems are mostly very liberal, so maybe that's why he votes republican.
[ Parent ]
Clearly I'm not Kyle
But I can understand the appeal of this particular blog to right and right of center people. There really isn't a whole lot of policy discussion on this site and not a whole lot of vitriol directed at Republicans. From a Republicans' perspective I can understand how this would be a nice place to try to understand how the other side is looking at these political issues.
[ Parent ]
Yep
This is more of a stat-driven site focused on elections.  Plenty of political junkies from all stripes probably want to know how districts votes for Obama vs. McCain in 2008, and Red state and Free Republican sure as heck aren't crunching the numbers.
[ Parent ]
Agree
SSP is great because they have alot of news that you dont find easily elsewhere, they update alot, and debating on here is generally more friendly than some other blogs Ive been on.  

A cat can have kittens in an oven but that doesn't make them biscuits.
[ Parent ]
gop
hi etl

Actually I am pretty generally conservative. Im pretty socially conservative (Im one of those crazy Assembly of God members like Sarah Palin, what do you expect? lol!). I consider myself more moderate on some issues like enviromental issues, some gay issues, and some economic ones such as being fair trade. But I figure probably 75% of the time I agree with the GOP.


A cat can have kittens in an oven but that doesn't make them biscuits.

[ Parent ]
That makes you Dick Lugar
That I think we can live with! :)
[ Parent ]
My impression of Dick Lugar is
something like "that honorable warrior from the nation you're at war with".  Is that by any means accurate?

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...
[ Parent ]
Indeed

[ Parent ]
Yes and No
It's not like Repubs didn't have their share of top-tier or ostensibly strong second-tier candidates in 2006: Steele, Kean, Bouchard, Kennedy, even McGavick and Ricketts considering their opponents (the former) and their states (the latter).
You're right though, if Dodd implodes (which is possible) it makes sense for Repubs to have a sentient candidate in the race.
[ Parent ]
Your absolutely right, Kyle.
This is really the first time I've seen Republicans target every Senate seat regardless of their chances. As us Dems have learned the last two cycles, even sure-losers like Jim Pederson and Rick Noriega take energy away from incumbents that would otherwise be spent campaigning elsewhere.
[ Parent ]
Which might turn out to be good for our country.
The only possible problem with having more races competitive is if politicians get bogged down in immediate concerns and lose sight of the big picture, in those cases where immediate concerns go in the opposite direction of a big picture.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...
[ Parent ]
Ha
I doubt he's that dumb and if he does he'll lose just like Slattery did in Kansas.

If you lose the bluest district in a red state or reddest district in a blue state it's not a particularly good qualification for promotion. Has anyone with that background ever won a Senate seat?

Not at all scared, the Dodd Squad will take him down.  

Simmons' district
Im not sure of its overall political leaning, but Simmons' district was the bluest in the 2004 and 2000 Presidential elections, amongst the GOP-held seats, and the district was less blue than Himes but bluer than Murphy's in 08. But perhaps its ideological makeup, overall, is the least blue. Im not sure, really.
[ Parent ]
2000 and 2004
When compared to the rest of CT's GOP-held seats, I mean. Not nationally. Although maybe nationally, too. But perhaps Leach's took the cake.
[ Parent ]
nope,
Leach's district was more Dem both times.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Not quite
In 2000, IA-02 was 53-43 and CT-02 was 54-40, so it was Simmons' (at the time Sam Gejdenson's) district that was more Dem. 2004 it was Leach's district (IA-02 55-44 to CT-02 54-44).
[ Parent ]
huh.


Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Just the Dodd Squad?
Hey, don't forget about me--once a supporter of Dodd for President!

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...
[ Parent ]
Yes!
All two of us!
Though I fizzled out around the point it became obvious that he wasn't going anywhere besides maybe Secretary of State/Treasury/Majority Leader.
[ Parent ]
This is a joke, right?
My best guess is the ceiling for Simmons against Dodd would be a 56-44 type loss with a 60-40 loss more likely.
CT-Sen: Simmons Mulling a Run | 42 comments

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